In math, if only two out of three variables can be together, its permutation can have only three values. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) have teamed up three times since 2017, the last time just four months ago. The Maoists and the Nepali Congress (NC) also got hitched three times.&nbsp; But this is the first time in seven years that the third combination of a NC-UML coalition is being tired out. It was Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists who, despite being the leader of a much smaller party by a long margin, used his swing vote to take turns hitching up with Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) and K P Oli (UML). Now, Deuba and Oli have jilted Dahal.&nbsp; Together, the NC and UML have a majority in Parliament to form a new government, but Prime Minister Dahal is refusing to go, saying he will only do so after facing a confidence vote within a month. It is foregone conclusion that Oli will be prime minister for the fourth time, and (if he keeps his promise) hand over to Deuba who will head the government for the sixth time till the next elections in 2027. “The Prime Minister seems to have been taken aback by how suddenly these developments happened,” says political analyst Hari Sharma. “But seeking a confidence vote is a more dignified way for him to go.” Constitutional amendments need a two-thirds majority in both Houses. While the NC and UML have the numbers in the Lower House through support from smaller parties, it will not be possible to obtain a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly without support from the Maoist Center. Sharma adds, “These two parties have come together as a matter of convenience, not principle. A constitutional amendment is only a political cover to justify the alliance.” The NC and the UML say they want to scrap provisions in the 2015 Constitution that gave excluded groups a presence in the legislature through Proportional Representation, saying it led to frequent coalition changes and instability. They have also hinted at doing away with federalism and secularism.&nbsp; “One of the most important parts of the Constitution are inclusivity and proportional representation,” says Sharma. “To see it as a problem that needs a constitutional amendment will be regressive. It would have been more credible if the NC-UML alliance had gone for political or governance reform.” Oli and Deuba tried to give an ideological veneer of the need for constitutional amendment to their secretive midnight pact, but some say it was in essence a joint power grab to offset imminent investigations into scandals that both their top leaders are implicated in: the NC in the fake refugee scam, and the UML in a land grab of a state-owned tea estate in Jhapa.&nbsp; For now, the main priority of the NC-UML is power sharing. The NC is wresting the all-important Home Ministry from the RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane which has been investigating the fake refugee and tea estate scams. Lamichhane himself is being investigated for misappropriating funds from co-operatives. The UML is to get nine ministries, including Finance. Oli had been unhappy with what he called a “Maoist budget” saying there had been no consultation with coalition partners. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was the inability of Dahal and Oli to agree on the lucrative appointment of the head of the Securities Board of Nepal (Sebon).&nbsp; The two parties have also decided to divide up provincial governments with three each, except Madhes Province. There is a geopolitical dimension with China openly backing unity among Communist parties, while India and the West want to thwart a UML-Maoist government. On Wednesday, UML ministers resigned en masse, after the party had urged Prime Minister Dahal to clear the way for a new government. Lamichhane’s RSP has said that it will not be joining the new government, while the monarchist RPP and some smaller parties welcomed the NC-UML alliance.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1582" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="UML ministers resign NT"> <figcaption>UML ministers resigned en masse on Wednesday after the party withdrew its support of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Some experts say an NC-UML alliance of the two biggest mainstream parties will make the government more stable and fulfil the mandate of Nepali voters. Indeed, despite being the first and second largest parties, the NC and UML have been playing mostly supporting roles in alliances with the much smaller Maoist-Centre.&nbsp; Consecutive governments led by Deuba, Oli and Dahal have failed to stimulate the economy, curb inflation, create jobs, or commit to transitional justice. Corruption became endemic during their tenures. Lately, Deuba and Oli were increasingly spooked by Lamichhane’s corruption probes. Bechan Jha, who was arrested last week for involvement in the fake refugee scandal, reportedly had connections right to the top echelons of the NC. And UML leaders were getting anxious about investigations into the tea estate scam. Nepal’s cyberphere is bristling with speculation that investigations to both scandals will now be sidelined. Kathmandu’s populist mayor Balen Shah added fuel to the fire with a telling social media post of Deuba and Oli holding teacups.&nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">यो समय गिरिबन्धु चियाको हो । काले काले मिलेर खाऊ भाले । <a href="https://t.co/ayi73w61mI">pic.twitter.com/ayi73w61mI</a>&mdash; Balen Shah (@ShahBalen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShahBalen/status/1807975048130842936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div> Nepal’s mainstream leadership must be concerned about the rise of populist parties and the public outrage on social media about their greed and opportunism. They want to amend the Constitution so that smaller populist parties do not have a strong presence in Parliament through proportional representation. In the midst of all this, the RSP suspended General Secretary Mukul Dhakal for his scathing internal report critical of Lamichhane putting his political ambition above the interest of the party. The losers in the fast-paced political developments this week appear to be Dahal and the Maoists, Lamichhane and the RSP and Madhav Nepal of the Unified Socialists. However, in the public’s eye, all three mainstream parties are the same, and citizens do not have faith in the new NC-UML alliance improving their living conditions.

Shristi Karki

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Rapid fire governments in Nepal

Nepali Times: How did this transition from banking to politics happen so suddenly? Anil Shah: I worked in the banking sector for 31 years, 17 of them as a CEO. The primary reason I left is because I have always been vocal about young people needing a chance at leadership. And it did not seem fair to keep expressing that opinion while I held on to my own position. I then wanted to move on to something new, and set up Lead Nepal Inc, the objective of which was to craft leaders. For a year, I shared my three-decade leadership, management, motivation and team-building experience with political parties, law enforcement and military, private organisations as well as students. Around that time, my daughter graduated in New York and we planned to go to Boston to visit friends. We were crammed in an Uber in New York on the way to the train station and during the ride, the driver looked at the rear view mirror and asked if I was Anil Shah. He turned out to be Nepali who eventually asked why someone like me had not entered politics. I replied that I was not interested. He was emphatic that people like me needed to bein government.&nbsp; I told him that politics was not for me, but he made me a promise — if I were to get into politics, he would donate $1,000 to me and he had 100 other friends who were willing to donate the same amount. The gentleman’s name is Mangal Shrestha, and I thanked him when we got off at the train station. I thought his heart was in the right place, but I did not take him seriously. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/arnico-panday-the-political-scientist">Arnico Panday, the political scientist</a> The day after I joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) I got a message on Facebook (from Mangal Shrestha) asking where he could send the money he had promised me. At that moment, his hope, and the hopes and aspirations of Nepalis like him, touched me deeply. In Boston, I met Nepali students at Harvard, MIT, and Tufts. One of the students said they were tired of me complaining for 15 years about how our politics was a dirty pond that no one was willing to clean up. I needed to either stop talking about it or wade into the dirty pond myself and try to clean it up, he said. Should you decide to get into politics, we are with you. It was a culmination of various conversations like this that touched me and made me question why I could not take this step. Then came the question of where to go. And I think RSP was a good fit for me, because they are new to politics just like I was, and their vision and thought process sort of matched with mine. I thought if I was going to make a jump into this pond, these are the people I want to do it with. I was reminded by Mangal Shrestha him of the Nepali spirit of honesty and integrity. He could have forgotten about his promise, but he reached out to me. This told me two things: the first was the hope that not only I, but the RSP as a whole had given people like him. The interaction also showed me was the state of despondency people feel about what is happening to our country, the hopelessness that a Nepali Uber driver in Manhattan feels about returning. I think it reflected the thoughts of a lot of the youth regarding the visions of the RSP and its aspirations towards the people.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023080608080_02e108f695e02a5472ba5cf2a3ac19ad9b0a15c504b31021e9d3fdc0d3694e7b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2023080608080_02e108f695e02a5472ba5cf2a3ac19ad9b0a15c504b31021e9d3fdc0d3694e7b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1456" loading="lazy" alt="Anil Shah RSP"> <figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption> </figure>  Did you have to think a lot about whether it would be the RSP or maybe RPP or Bibeksheel? Definitely. Coming back and joining the RSP was not my first thought. My knee-jerk reaction would have been to join the Nepali Congress because my family has historically been closer to NC. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/the-rana-reign-a-recap-of-history,3751">Subarna Shamsher Rana</a> is my wife’s grandfather. But it was not a question of joining a party for a position, or to use family legacy. I wanted to join politics to try and actually do something. The RSP has made you the head of its training department. Do politicians need training? Politicians do think that they should be the ones giving training, not getting it. That is why our country is where it is right now. However, our party does not have politicians, it has ordinary citizens like myself who want to do something for the nation. And the best thing is that a lot of RSP members— parliamentarians and Central Working Committee members alike— reached out to me to say that they were willing and glad to be trained because they wanted to learn to become better leaders. That kind of positive attitude is a start. A few days ago our party chair Rabi Lamichhane, parliamentarians, CWC members and other leadership sat down and discussed our training visions for leadership. We looked at our strengths and weaknesses and how we can individually contribute to the party. All of this makes me believe that I am in the right place. What kind of training do leaders need? Training is not one-size-fits-all. For the parliamentary party and the Central Committee, it is a training of synergy, team building, teamwork, and confidence building, all so that we can work together as a cohesive unit. At the end of the day, even though we are a political party, we are a startup. So when we go to the provinces, the training focuses on introducing the party and our Constitution, our vision, our culture. When we go to people who want to stand for elections, at any of the three levels, we explain what leadership is, and what one is expected to do when the party is in leadership, what our role will be when we are the opposition. We train people about how to express criticism that actually adds value and moves elected leaders in the right direction. Meanwhile, we have our ‘Mission Chaurasi’, because we are clear that we are going to run the country after the next elections in 2084 (2028). This is because we cannot be trying to figure out what to do and how to lead once we are already elected and waste another two years in the process. That is why we are taking these years to prepare. The question we always ask ourselves is not what to do or how to do it, it is why we are here. We are not like other cadre-based political parties, and we cannot forget why we exist. We are still figuring that out. I tell people that I have not joined politics, I have joined people-tics. Nepali politics has been plagued by leg-pulling, an unwillingness to compromise, and infighting. Can they be trained to change that? You cannot teach old dogs new tricks. But the RSP is still a puppy, so what our entire team learns now is going to be really crucial and we want to learn the right values and skills. This is a country of countless leaders, but the RSP wants to create value-based leadership from the roots at all three levels of government, which entails humble, value-based leadership. I start off by saying that if service is beneath you, leadership is beyond you. In Nepal, I find once you become a leader, service becomes something that is seen as shameful. But leadership is about service. It is not about being in charge, it is about being responsible for the people in our charge.&nbsp; What is the difference between training bankers and politicians? The core of political leadership is about the people you surround yourself with. And what I like about our chair Rabi Lamichhane is that he welcomed people like myself, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">Dr Swarnim Wagle</a>, Shishir Khanal, Manish Jha and Dr Toshima Karki. If he had just wanted to rule, he would never bring people like us into the party, he would always have people who look up to him and surround himself with yes men. I have been in corporate meetings, and meetings of other political parties, and there is always free dialogue and conversation within the RSP. Our weakness is perhaps a lack of structure but there is no lack of open dialogue and discussion. You said you were inspired by the diaspora, but there are more Nepalis leaving, many of them for good. What do you say to them? I used to always think and tell <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-family-spread-across-kuwait-cyprus-uae">people who went overseas</a> to come back, make a life in Nepal, and do something for the country. When I once said this to a labour migrant, he replied that while I had come from a well-to-do family, he did not have the same privilege of coming back home to stay off work and spend time with family without there being consequences. I realised that to many people, spending time with their mother might mean letting her go hungry. That is when I decided that I was not going to tell the youth to come back because not everybody has what I have. What I am going to tell them is not to forget Nepal. The country has what it has and the economy is sustained because of money sent by the people who pour their sweat in foreign lands. Nepal is not just its land and its rivers, it is also its people, wherever they are.&nbsp; Read also:&nbsp; <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-not-a-wish-but-necessity-for-nepalis">Migration not a wish, but necessity for Nepalis</a>, Shristi Karki <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-overseas-migration-better">Making overseas migration better</a>, Kunda Dixit Are you going to stand in elections yourself, maybe from Bhirkot where your ancestors are from?&nbsp; Anil Shah: One should never say no when it comes to politics, because you never know. If the party needs me and tells me I must stand, why not? I will not back down and say no. But if I were to say right now I'm going to stand from Kathmandu or Bhirkot or Janakpur, then I would have to devote half of my time to developing my constituency. If I were to focus on that while also building the leadership within the RSP— which has been my dream— I will fail in both of those undertakings. Right now I am clear within the party that my job is not to win elections and be given a post, my job is to ensure results in all three levels of government in the next election.&nbsp; Should I go to Bhirkot, I am confident that I can develop it. But developing Bhirkot will not develop Nepal. I have embarked on a journey where I want to build the kind of leadership to develop all of Nepal. The interactions and energy from Kosi and Lumbini have been phenomenal so far. Additionally, there is sometimes a misconception that the RSP is a party of and for young people. That is not the case at all— we are a party of Nepalis where people of all ages, ethnicities, genders, and religions are welcome. The central leader in the RSP from Bhirkot is from the Muslim community and from my ward. There is already a leader there.&nbsp; A lot of Nepal’s ageing leadership is overly ambitious, egotistic and do not want to let go. Do you address that in your training? Absolutely. I call that god syndrome. This belief that rules do not apply to us because we are in politics. But whether it is traffic rules, or having to be in a queue, we impress upon the RSP leadership during training that we must follow them. &nbsp; Do you think Rabi Lamichhane has god syndrome? Everybody has an ego, including me. The question is if <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon">Rabi Lamichhane</a> can control it, and from my experience he can. Rabi Lamichhane is a brand now. He is looked at as the face of the RSP, as the tip of the spear of a lot of people’s aspirations. People could argue and comment on all of his speeches and public appearances, but he has to do that as the leader of a national party. There is a difference between being invisible and being humble. And whether it is in parliament or on the streets, he is humble but never invisible. He is a humble man—a god-fearing man—and he is someone I think I can follow as a leader. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rabi-lamichhane-is-home-less">Rabi Lamichanne is Home-less</a>, Shristi Karki

"We are a political startup"

The first indication that Nepal’s voters were turning against mainstream parties was in local elections in May last year. In Kathmandu, Dharan and Dhangadi hitherto unknown candidates defeated established parties. But the big parties treated it as a blip, and carried on with business as usual, and in November’s federal and provincial elections, the independent RSP came out of nowhere to be the fourth largest party in Parliament. &nbsp; Still, the Nepali Congress (NC), UML and the Maoists refused to see the writing on the wall and kept playing politics without principles, making backroom power deals and not responding to the economic crisis and the people’s needs. So, in this week’s by-elections in three districts, voters threw them out. Harvard-educated economist Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP, won hands-down against his UML and NC rivals in Tanahu. And in Chitwan, the RSP’s leader Rabi Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide.&nbsp; Still, there does not seem to be indications of any alarm bells going off in the mainstream parties. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists said on Monday that there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of unregulated spread of social media”. He seemed to blame everyone but himself for the Maoist party being nowhere in the picture in this by-election in which it lent support to the NC. The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba seemed slightly more circumspect, and got over his candidates’ surprise defeats by admitting that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. The question now is what he is going to do about it. The Wagle and Lamichhane wins have now given the RSP an additional seat in the House of Representatives, to take the total to 21. Wagle received 34,919 votes, much over NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai, who got 20,122 votes.&nbsp; Wagle seems to have carried over a chunk of the NC voter base to the RSP because of that party’s disenchantment with the party leadership of Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzoo for allying with the Maoists. Indeed, Ram Chandra Poudel— who vacated his parliamentary position after he was appointed the President— had received 25,361 votes in November, meaning that the NC received 5,000 fewer votes this time. Interestingly, UML voters seem to have flocked towards Wagle after he shifted to the RSP. The party’s candidate came in second place with 19,981 votes in November, but UML candidate Khanal received over 11,000 less votes. Over in Chitwan, Lamichhane got 54,170 votes, much higher than the NC’s Jit Narayan Shrestha who received 11,214. The fact that Lamichhane got nearly 5,000 more votes than in November shows that despite his citizenship scandals, he is even more popular because of public disenchantment with the NC-Maoist coalition.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Rabi Lamichhane NT"> <figcaption>Rastriya Swatantra Party chair Rabi Lamichhane receives his certification from the Chief Election Officer on Tuesday after winning the by-election from Chitwan-2. Photo: SADAN ADHIKARI/RSS</figcaption> </figure>  The turnout in all three districts has been almost as high as in November, which is contrary to the usual trend of by-elections having lower turnout. And it also shows that Nepali voters are finally thinking out of the box and abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. Wagle’s victory, for instance, showed that voters gave a thumbs down to the NC now allowing a technocrat like Wagle a ticket, and believing that the economist could find a way for the country to extricate itself from the current economic crisis. The personal attacks by NC leaders, including Gagan Thapa who used to be a friend and colleague of Swarnim Wagle, appears to have backfired on the party in Tanahu. Wagle, for his part, has refrained from direct attacks on any party or politician during this campaign – even though he had been publicly critical of the conjugal leadership of the Deubas in the NC.&nbsp; All the negative publicity regarding Lamichhane’s citizenship and passport, Kantipur exposing alleged corruption when he was briefly Home Minister in January, and a scandal involving an RSP MPs soliciting money from a tycoon do not appear to have affected Lamichhane’s support base. In fact, Lamichhane’s voters appear to have been convinced by his argument that the mainstream parties who are neck-deep in corruption were trying to frame him on a relatively minor mistake involving his passport. In Bara-2, where votes were still being counted till Tuesday afternoon, the JSP’s Upendra Yadav is leading with a margin of over 5,000 having received 18,096 votes so far. His closest challenger is Janamat’s Shiv Chandra Prasad Kushwaha. Like Lamichhane, Yadav is running for office for the second time, but unlike Lamichhane, Yadav lost the election in Saptari’s second constituency in November to Janamat chair CK Raut. Yadav is banking on winning in Bara and is said to have persuaded Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold off on completing his Cabinet nomination in hopes of nabbing the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Even though the Chitwan and Tanahu wins for the RSP represent proof of a dramatic decline in support for mainstream parties, it remains to be seen if the RSP will be a true alternative party or behave just like the other established parties. After all, the RSP is a member of Prime Minister Dahal’s 10-party coalition and both Lamichhane and Wagle will be demanding their pound of flesh. Dahal will be in a dilemma because he knows that the Deubas do not like Wagle, and Lamichhane will want an important portfolio among the five still vacant, since his earlier home ministry is already taken. For the moment it is unclear if the RSP will be back in Prime Minister Dahal’s government.

In with the new, out with the old

<figure><img width="1500" height="1007" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c09c7e80680e0da4acjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>RSP Ministers (from left) Shishir Khanal, Dol Aryal and Toshima Karki submitting their resignations to Prime Minister Dahal on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>All three ministers of the independent RSP submitted their resignation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Baluwatar on Sunday.Education, Science and Technology Minister Shishir Khanal, State Minister of Health Toshima Karki and Labour and Society Security Minister Dol Prasad Aryal resigned from their posts after a party meeting.RSP leader and former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane was earlier stripped of his Home Ministership after the Supreme Court ruled two weeks ago that his Nepali citizenship was not valid.Lamichhane had renounced his American citizenship, but was said not to have renewed his Nepali one.But within four days Lamichhane had got his citizenship from the Kathmandu District Administration Office, and resumed chairmanship of the RSP. He then started lobbying to have his Home Minister post back. The UML and RPP had supported his demand, but Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who had taken over the Home Ministry portfolio, was against it. <figure><img width="2220" height="1446" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150232/63fe10c49c7e80680e0da4adjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In a meeting on Sunday morning, Dahal had offered Lamichhane another ministry, but Lamichhane refused and the RSP Central Committee decided to leave the coalition while still supporting the government. In a jam-packed press conference Lamichhane delivered a long speech in which he defended his citizenship issue, and lashed out at Nepal's mainstream media for targeting him. "The media accused us of conflict of interest, but I can expose the media's own conflict of interest and political agenda," he thundered, singling out by name Kantipur, onlinekhabar.com and Setopati.com and their publishers and editors by name. He threatened to surround the publications with his supporters if they continued to "transmit untruths".

RSP quits Nepal coalition

Kunda Dixit

Making overseas migration better

Scientist Arnico Panday talks to Nepali Times about why he became a politician and the reason he joined Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which has seven directly elected MPs and 13 seats from the proportional vote. Panday withdrew his candidacy for health reasons, but is in the central committee of the RSP. Excerpts of interview:Nepali Times: You are an atmospheric scientist, what motivated you to stand for elections?Arnico Panday: I didn’t necessarily think about coming into politics because I was an atmospheric scientist. But because of the direction the country was going regarding issues including climate change, environment, heritage conservation, urbanisation, I felt a need for myself and others like me to have a louder voice in national affairs.Issues like air pollution and climate change need attention and solutions that go beyond finding new knowledge. For the past decade, I have been working in various policy advisory roles and found that they were not sufficient to get the change happening. The people who had the mandate and the power to make the decisions were not doing so, or were listening to outside advice. Also, I did have an inspiration in my friend Marcela Omena who I knew as a PhD student. She went on to become a minister of environment in Chile and got a lot done.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-with-the-new-out-with-some-of-the-old/">In with the new, out with (some of) the old</a>, Anita BhetwalBut you stepped down as a candidate after contracting Covid and your replacement candidate Toshima Karki had an upset win from Lalitpur-3. Did that surprise you?The whole time I was thinking I would contest from Lalitpur-3, the thought was that the chance was very small. And a month before the election, we thought it was a long shot for Toshima too. But about a week before the election when I went door to door with her, I realised how popular she was, and how much support there was for her.I suppose the trouble she had with the Election Commission gave her a lot of free publicity, and that must have helped. But we saw that in many places people were just tired of the lack of delivery by old political parties and they saw candidates from our party, many of whom are a generation younger represent hope for the change they wanted.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/seats-of-power/">Seats of power</a>, Shristi Karki<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3159c7e80680e0d3048jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>What will your role now be in the RSP?I’m on the central committee of RSP and I work very closely with party chair Rabi Lamichhane. We now need to expand the party structure, and switch from a start-up mode to a functioning organisation. What my exact role will depend on what the party’s role will be next, whether we will be in the opposition or part of the coalition government.I will continue to strongly represent the issues of climate change, environment and urban planning but a lot of other key issues too that resonated with our voters like bringing people back to Nepal. Nepal depends quite a bit on remittance, but that comes at a very high cost. We need to have jobs at home and more industries that create products we can export. We need to go beyond exporting people and importing goods with the money they send home. We also have a very strong anti-corruption message.Has the RSP been invited by the Nepali Congress to join the coalition government?We’ve had all kinds of informal reaching out. Our position has been that we are not opposed to joining the coalition government, but it will depend on who will be on the overall Cabinet and what kind of joint agenda there will be. Will joining the coalition help us deliver some of the promises we made to the voters? Will it allow us to build our profile as a no-nonsense party that gets things done at a low cost? Or does it just turn us into another one of the same?We are not here for just the next two years, we would like to get a majority in the next election five years from now. We got a lot of votes because people had high hopes that we would do something. Next time we will get votes because we will have shown that we get things done.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">The past is foretold in Nepal poll results</a>, Shristi Karki<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3199c7e80680e0d3049jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>What would be some of the reasons your newly-formed party managed to win so many seats in the federal Parliament?A lot of voters are tired of old political parties, their lack of delivery, lack of care for common people’s problems and corruption. I think Nepali voters have a pattern of giving new guys a chance. We are a fresh group of people, we don’t know how to do politics, many of us do not know how to do speeches, we are coming with good intentions to make a difference.Our party chair Rabi Lamichhane being a very well-known face also made a big difference. He is someone with a long track record of doing what the state and the elected leaders should have been doing. In parts of Nepal, he is a folk hero who has done a lot from building a hospital in Kalikot to working with the Nepali diaspora to organise oxygen cylinders during the Covid-19 pandemic.It doesn’t seem like the RSP supports federalism much. But isn’t devolution a good thing?We have nothing against devolution of power, budget or decision-making. Our only concern has been with the provincial government structure which is extremely costly yet not delivering anything. We are not against having provinces but it is set up all wrong, and we want to improve it. We have put forth some proposals for a much leaner provincial government system.Does your shift to politics signify that politics is the best way to find a resolution for a lot of our environmental problems like air pollution, waste management and climate change?As a scientist working in policy advisory coming into politics, I think you need a combination of a lot of things to work. You need knowledge created by science, but that alone will not bring about change. People have known about the basic science behind climate change since the 1960s but actions didn’t take place. It is elected leaders and people in positions of power who make the decisions. So we need knowledgeable, responsible politicians who will act in the best long-term interests of the people.In my own personal journey, it seemed like the right time to engage in politics even though it is not something that comes naturally to me. I wouldn’t say this is the best way universally to address the issues, but without sufficient attention in politics, things are not going to move forward.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/back-to-the-future/">Back to the future</a>, Santa Gaha Magar

Arnico Panday, the political scientist

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd2cb9c7e80680e0d3038jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1040" height="550"/><figcaption>Constituencies won by Rastriya Swatantra Party under the First Post The Past system.</figcaption></figure>Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has emerged as the most unexpected winner of the recently concluded general elections for a party formed just 141 days before voting day.Most political parties find it difficult to establish themselves even after decades of existence, but the RSP won seven direct seats in the federal parliament and received over 1.13 million votes under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-urban-voters/">Proportional Representation</a> (PR) mechanism.However, analysts are quick to point out, since the RSP solely banked on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/">voter disillusionment over the mainstream political parties</a> it will have a difficult time establishing its relevance in future. Indeed, the fresh-faced candidates also rode on the independent wave following the successes of the likes of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/making-kathmandu-great-again/">Balen Shah</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Harka Sampang</a> who were elected mayors of Kathmandu and Dharan in the May local election.“The people have been frustrated to an extent that they had already made up their minds to vote for new faces which is why so many people chose the RSP without really understanding their philosophy or ideology,” says Bharatpur-based political commentator Prem Rimal.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-nepali-people-have-spoken/">The Nepali people have spoken</a>, Sonia AwaleThe success of the RSP has many questioning if the party is a national party at all, or just an expression of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/">urban disenchantment</a>. The elections was a battle between traditional vote bank politics and citizens excercising individual choice, and the fact that the Nepali Congress (NC) and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">UML still dominate</a> means vote banks are still important.Looking at the RSP’s performance under the First Past The System (FPTP), it received a significant number of votes in 13 constituencies with the highest in Chitwan-1 and 2, Lalitpur-3, Rupandehi-2 and Nawalparasi East-1. RSP candidates also received a fairly good number of votes in Jhapa-1, 4 and 5, Morang-1 and 6, Chitwan-3, Nawalparasi West-1, Rupandehi-1, Dang-1, 2 and 3, Kathmandu-2, 6, 7, 8 and 9, Nuwakot-2, Kaski-1, 2 and 3, and Sunsari-1 and 2.The RSP has been elected in seven of these constituencies with the party chair Rabi Lamichhane receiving the most votes at 49,264 from Chitwan-2. This is 34,000 more than what former health minister Umesh Shrestha of the NC contesting as a governing coalition candidate received.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/">Nepal poll results signal upset</a>, Sonia AwaleOn the other hand, despite losing in Morang and Sunsari in Province 1, the RSP managed to rack up a significant number of votes from the constituencies. “People in Morang and Sunsari have long been dissatisfied with the old political parties and this disenchantment doesn’t take long to be converted into votes,” says Biratnagar-based political scientist and professor Subhaga Gautam.During Toshima Karki’s door-to-door campaign in Lalitpur-3 people said they were done with the old crop of politicians and their non-performance. A middle-aged Lalitpur local told her: "The UML, Congress, and Maoists have doomed the country. I hope for your win but do not become like them once you get to power.”Economic analyst Manikar Karki says people are of the mindset to choose anyone new as long as they are not the old leaders of the mainstream parties. “At any cost, out with the old, in with the new is what the people have said out loud,” he adds.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/back-to-the-future/">Back to the future</a>, Santa Gaha MagarThe RSP similarly secured 14,000 votes in Rupandehi-1 and 25,000 in Rupandehi -2. Analyst Karki, who is a resident of Butwal says this is primarily due to the dissatisfaction of people with the incumbent and because the older parties had not filed a new candidate.“With the RSP not stating their political agenda clearly, it seems the people have voted for them without understanding their policies or principles,” warns Karki. “The votes received by the RSP is just an expression of anger, we can’t call it a wave just yet.”Bishwa Sigdel, a sociologist from Pokhara, says that he is surprised that the RSP managed to win so many votes from his area in a short period but credits it to the people who wanted something new since each democratic movement.He adds: “People in Kaski have rejected the old leaders who they consider corrupt and incompetent. The RSP has been successful because of Rabi Lamichhane’s popularity and its anti-corruption stance.”Translated from the Nepali original published on himalkhabar.comRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-past-is-foretold-in-nepal-poll-results/">The past is foretold in Nepal poll results</a>, Shristi Karki

In with the new, out with (some of) the old

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059759c7e80680e0ce1eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Toshima Karki of Rastriya Swatantra Party after her win in Lalitpur-3. Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059799c7e80680e0ce1efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390597c9c7e80680e0ce1f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366">Antiestablishmentarianism. That new word has entered Nepal’s political lexicon.Kathmandu has elected a lawyer, Lalitpur a doctor, both women under 35 from the independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which was formed just five months ago by tv anchor <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a>, who also won from Chitwan.Major municipalities had just voted for independent candidates like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Balen Shah</a> and Harka Sampang in the May local election when Lamichhane decided to ride the wave. Since then, the outrage of many Nepalis over the country’s non-performing serial politicians seems to have only grown.To be sure, the 30-year Congress-Communist polarisation that destabilised Nepal’s politics is here to stay with Nepali Congress (NC) and the opposition UML set to retain their dominance in the new federal parliament, but independent candidates will be the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-poll-results-signal-upset/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new movers and shakers</a>.The RSP has swept 4 out of 10 Kathmandu seats, other independents have also raked up anti-establishment votes rejecting the likes of Ishwar Pokhrel, Onsari Gharti Magar, Pampha Bhusal, Shankar Pokharel, Kamal Thapa, Upendra Yadav, Ramkumari Jhakri and Rabindra Mishra.The Maoist-Centre fared poorly everywhere, showing that voters are not impressed with their efforts to airbrush war crimes, and their past record. The Unified Socialists were punished for their opportunistic and unprincipled involvement in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">5-party coalition</a>. Indeed, the big question now is if the coalition will even get enough seats to form a government.“The general population is not satisfied with mainstream political parties fighting elections through alliances,” says NC leader Minendra Rijal who was not given a ticket for the polls by his party. “The governing coalition is unlikely to fare as well. There was disappointment before, but now people are even more bitter.”Many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre appear to have defied party edicts and voted against each other and for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">independent or rebel candidates</a>. Although the UML is also losing some of its support base to new candidates, it has fared better.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialists, and the Madhes-based JSP and LSP,” explains political analyst Puranjan Acharya.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059809c7e80680e0ce1f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1435" height="855"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Until press time on Thursday, the NC had won 32 seats in Parliament and is leading in 20 constituencies. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a>, who is also NC General Secretary, has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace "those who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”. But that will depend on the fate of NC and the governing coalition in the coming days, it is certain no one party is going to get a majority.The opposition UML is leading in 29 constituencies and has locked in 19 seats. The Maoist Centre is trailing far behind with just 9 seats and leading in only 7 constituencies while Unified Socialist has 7 and so does RSP. RPP has won 4, Loktantrik Samajbadi and Nagarik Unmukti have 2 each while Janata Smajwadi, Rastriya Janamorcha, Janamat and Nepal Kisan Majdur have each won one seat so far. In the far west Tarai, the Nagarik Unmukti party of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-kailali-nepal,2535" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Resham Chaudhary</a> and Rastriya Janamorcha are ahead of the race in the Tarai, with more established Madhes-based parties struggling.The UML is doing even better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism, already raking up 603,708 votes. NC has received 572,698 votes so far. The Unified Socialists, which split from the UML, is not getting even one PR seat.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even becoming the third-largest party ahead of the Maoist Centre in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months.Many young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation have been elected, and there will be more as results come in. The people have spoken, it is now for the antiestablishmentarians to shake things up in Nepal's legislature.NC leader Minendra Rijal told Himal Khabar in an interview: “We must congratulate the RSP, but their road ahead is not easy. People had once voted the Maoists to power by a landslide out of frustration with mainstream parties. We all know what became of them.”He adds: “At the same time, I request my party mates to put a halt on their aspirations for prime ministership for now and instead focus on revamping Nepali Congress which will be in the interest of both the country and the party itself.”<h2>When final results?</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059839c7e80680e0ce1f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Five days after the general elections, only half of the constituencies have had their votes counted and winners announced. In the lead up to the polls, the Election Commission has estimated all the results for First Past The Post candidates to come in a week’s time, and by 1 December, announce the complete outcome.Authorities had taken 13 days to count the votes following the local election in May, where 34,953 representatives were elected in 6 metropolitan cities, 11 sub-metropolitan cities, 276 municipalities and 460 rural municipalities.The 20 November federal elections, however, had far fewer candidates at 11,543 and also fewer seats to fill in, 275 in the House of Representative and 550 in the Provincial Assembly.Unlike in the local elections, this time one didn’t have to vote for many posts in the ballot. In fact, there were four separate ballot boxes to make it easy for counting," says former Chief Election Commissioner Ayodhi Prasad Yadav. "Which is why we should get the results within a week."Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya agrees: “By 8 December, we plan to publish the complete results including that of the Proportional Representation. If required we will fly the ballot in from the remote parts of the country.”Many Nepalis <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">did not even bother to vote</a> in the polls, recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.Much of this is because of the people’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disillusionment with mainstream parties</a>. But Nepal’s flawed electoral system is also to be blamed. There is no voting by mail despite a 2018 Supreme Court ruling meaning nearly 5 million Nepalis living and working abroad cannot exercise their rights.The excuse for this is that mail voting could open up avenues for fraud, but the real reason is that it will allow for young, educated Nepalis to further undermine the establishment and vote for alternative candidates.The government is also in no hurry to introduce <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/">electronic voting machines</a> because the parties don’t trust each other and fear that the other might cheat. Ironic, given that the Maoists got away with tearing up hardcopy ballot papers in Chitwan in 2017.The fact that this is an election of alliances where parties of diametrically opposing ideologies have come together has made it that much more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">confusing for voters</a>. This could have meant that the large proportion of ballot papers were disqualified, skewing the outcome itself.The good news is that learning from the May local election, the Election Commission has this time made four separate ballot papers for different seats.Even so, Nepal needs a more reliable <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-every-vote/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vote counting system</a> in place which as of now is as archaic as they come. And contrary to what our leaders believe, it would make the counting fairer and faster.The longer counting takes, the higher the temptation for the losing side to disrupt the process, perhaps cheat and even resort to violence. Some of this is happening in constituencies where established leaders are trailing.

Sonia Awale

The Nepali people have spoken

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059449c7e80680e0ce1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"/><figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As the results of Sunday’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> trickle in, there are signs that Nepal’s voters have made their dissatisfaction with the country’s serial politicians clear.While early results show that the rivalry between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML that dates back 30 years is still as fierce as ever, Nepal’s politics may be seeing the dawn of a new era.Heavyweights of established parties trail in several important constituencies, the Maoist-Centre and the Unified Socialists have fared poorly everywhere, the royal-right parties have not got the votes they expected, and the five-party governing coalition is in shambles.The reason for this appears to be mainly that many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre voted for independents or rebel candidates, rejecting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alliance of convenience</a> between the right and left-wing parties. Although the UML is also losing a lot of votes to new and independent candidates, the opposition UML appears to have been able to better ride out the storm.Rabi Lamichanne’s newly-minted independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and other independent candidates are also faring well in many constituencies. Even in places where they are not leading, they show that many voters have abandoned the established parties they used to be loyal to. In many ways, election results so far show a rejection by voters of Nepal’s serial politicians.Indeed, many Nepalis did not even bother to vote with Sunday’s polls recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.It may be too early to call this an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘independent wave’</a> in Nepali politics, but the RSP, other independents and younger leaders from the main parties could be the new kingmakers.“From the figures so far, it is clear that the RSP’s strong results show that voters are fed up of the same old faces,” says political analyst Punarjan Acharya.He adds: “It is also clear that the UML has done better than many expected despite internal party strife and having to do battle with the ice-party alliance.”Overnight, Prakash Man Singh of the NC was declared winner in Kathmandu-1, where he narrowly edged our Rabindra Misha by a mere 218 votes. This was a repeat of 2017 when Mishra, who had contested the same constituency from the alternative Bibeksheel Sajha, had lost to Singh by a narrow margin. This is the fourth win for the scion of one of the NC’s founding leaders, Ganesh Man Singh.In Lalitpur-2, UML candidate Prem Bahadur Maharjan received 15,025 votes to beat Sudin Shakya of the new Hamro Nepali Party and Buddha Ratna Maharjan of Rastriya Swatantra Party. Maharjan appears to have benefited from the new smaller parties splitting the votes.Elsewhere in Bhaktapur-2, Durlav Thapa Chettri of NC and Mahesh Basnet of UML are battling it out, but the former is now leading with nearly 1,000 votes more.In one of the earliest outcomes, NC  had a clean sweep in Mustang with Yogesh Gauchan, 29, was elected as the youngest MP so far. The pair of Namdu Gurung and Bikal Sherchan also won provincial seats in Gandaki.The NC  has also managed a provincial seat from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang</a> with Munundra Jung Gurung’s win. Independent Rajiv Gurung has locked in another seat from the district having won unopposed earlier.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059469c7e80680e0ce1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="833" height="589"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059489c7e80680e0ce1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594d9c7e80680e0ce1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594f9c7e80680e0ce1e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Till press time on Tuesday morning, the NC had won three provincial seats and was leading in 45 constituencies while UML has one win with its candidates maintaining their lead in 35 others.The Maoist Centre leads in just 11 areas while the Unified Socialists and RSP with leads in 8 constituencies each. The UML is expected to do better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even as the fourth-largest party in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months ago by charismatic former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane and who was joined by young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a> himself has fallen behind the NC’s Umesh Shrestha in Chitwan-2, but that could be because the votes so far counted are mainly from coalition strongholds.RSP is, however, leading in Chitwan-2 where Hari Dhakal is ahead of NC’s Biswo Paudel and UML’s Surendra Pandey, the MP from the constituency in 2017. Former House Speaker Onsari Gharti of the Maoist Centre is also trailing behind Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Sobita Gautam in Kathmandu-2.The RSP’s Toshima Karki, a physician, is edging past the UML’s Amrit Khadka to lead in Lalitpur-3. Maoist Centre’s Pampha Bhusal who is also Energy Minister is trailing behind the two.The RSP’s, Shishir Khanal, and education reformer, is far ahead of former police chief Sarbendra Khanal of the UML in Kathmandu-6, and is likely to win. The RSP is also leading in constituencies in Kaski, Jhapa and Rupandehi districts.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The way I see it, losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist, and the Mashes-based JSP and LSP,” says analyst Acharya.He adds that this is the direct result of the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialists (US) seeking more constituencies than their ability. “If the NC had a candidate in 25 more constituencies instead of distributing it to the Maoists and US, it would have ensured a bigger victory for the party,” explains Acharya. “Except now, they have pretty much gifted many of seats to the UML.”Elsewhere, the NC’s General Secretary <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a> looks set to win Kathmandu-4 with UML’s Rajan Bhattarai trailing. Thapa has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace those “who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”.In Kathmandu-7, it looks like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-daughter-also-rises/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manushi Bhattarai</a> will have a hard time catching up with her rivals — despite support from the coalition. Her father, former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai had swapped his Gurkha constituency with Pushpa Kamal Dahal to win Maoist support for Manushi.The royal-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) chair <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Prasad Lingden</a> has taken an initial lead in Jhapa-3 where the UML-backed leader is up against the coalition’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula of NC.Uday Shumsher Rana of NC has taken a lead in Lalitpur-1 slightly edging past Nawaraj Silwal of UML. In Kathmandu-5, it’s the battle of new faces with Hamro Nepal Party’s Suman Sayami just ahead of Biraj Bhakta Shrestha of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the vote counting.Erstwhile separatist <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/ck-raut-madhes-movement,1677" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CK Raut</a> has also taken an initial lead in Saptari-2 with Jayprakash Thakur of Lokatantrik Samjbadi and Upendra Yadav of Janata Samajbadi trailing behind. Maoist Centre on the other hand has also taken an initial lead in Jajarkot with Shakti Basnet ahead of Niraj Acharya of UML.

Nepal poll results signal upset

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

rastriya-swatantra-party