<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161148/636d1d6b9c7e80680e0af3b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1160" height="280"/>City Express Money Transfer and Ria Money Transfer, a business segment of Euronet Worldwide, have partnered to allow Nepali migrants to send money back home from Ria to the Khalti Digital Wallet, through City Express Money Transfer. Ria currently has over 500,000 locations in over 160 countries, and by partnering with Khalti which has 1.8 million registered users, the partnership allows Nepalis to send and receive remittance real-time in a safe and digitised ecosystem.

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City Express, Ria, and Khalti tie up

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01e39c7e80680e0a364fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1178" height="1476"/><figcaption>More than 7,000 Nepali migrant workers sat for an English exam on Monday for openings in 1,000 caregiver jobs in Israel.</figcaption></figure>More than 7,000 Nepalis sat for English language exams at 16 test centres across Kathmandu on Monday. No, this was not a college exam, but one to determine eligibility for 1,000 caregiver jobs in Israel.The tests are part of a selection process under an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631624430377000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHFN_reE6ZnyZ6cf_O_QIhMoWLq0Q">agreement between the governments</a> of Israel and Nepal in September 2020, and an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/4-days-4-scenes/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/4-days-4-scenes/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631624430377000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXBGT6aXZQhRnDoHZogxAKC4bJZw">implementation protocol signed</a> in January.The program initially targeted 500 caregivers, but was later expanded to 1,000, and 70% of the openings are meant for women with salaries of as much as $1,600 per month governed by Israel’s strong labour laws.Over 26,500 people initially created user IDs in the online application for the openings, but only 7,009 completed the application process and were eligible for the exam. Although 70% of jobs are set aside for women, Dambar Bahadur Sunuwar of the Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE) said that only 47% of the test takers were female.Many of the candidates and their families waiting for the exams at Durbar High School in Kathmandu appeared nervous not just about the exam, which will be competitive, but about whether the process is fair.“It is all luck and hopefully luck will favour us,” said the husband of a woman waiting to give her exam. “In a country where everything is driven by ‘settings’, we are worried that Israel will not be an exception. All we can do is try our luck and give the exams, with the hope that it will be fair.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01e69c7e80680e0a3650jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1178" height="966"><figcaption>Test takers and families outside Darbar High School in Kathmandu, one of the 16 exam centres.</figcaption></figure>Another applicant, who also did not want her name used, says she wants the process to be merit based since her family cannot afford high recruitment costs. “We are cautiously optimistic that the selection process will be fair,” she shrugged.She is a mother herself, has been taking care of her mother-in-law in Nepal, and feels she has the right experience to be a caregiver in Israel in addition to the formal training she took. “I will still be taking care of others, the only difference is that in Israel they will pay me,” she said.Sunuwar says the DoFE has taken measures to ensure the process will be conducted fairly and in a transparent way, and used the directive for the civil service exam as the basis for this test.“To minimise interference and curb any cheating, we created a Foreign Employment Recruitment Management System so all documents were submitted online and details regarding exams and interviews are also being shared online,” Sunwar told Nepali Times. “It will be conducted fairly and we once again urge migrants not to fall for intermediaries who approach them with false promises.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01e89c7e80680e0a3651jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1182" height="1130"><figcaption>There will be 2,000 applicants shortlisted for the interview round, and Israel will chose 1,000 candidates from among 1,400 names forwarded by the DoFe.</figcaption></figure>Despite these assurances, and given past experience, migrant family members waiting outside Durbar High School had misgivings about the process.“For those of us without insider connections, our worst fear is that this exam and the interview were just for show and everything is pre-determined to a select group of people who have the resources and networks,” said one waiting family member. “We have invested money and time for the preparation, with the hope that it will be carried out fairly. That is all we can do. Let us wait and see.”Earlier this year, the Israel agreement faced criticism for setting a $1,600 upfront recruitment cost to be borne by the migrant workers before they leave Nepal, most of it on airfare. Critics slammed the agreement for not following the employer pays principle.Government authorities have defended the fee. Nepal’s ambassador to Israel, Anjana Shakya says the pre-departure costs will be much less than Rs167,000 because the air fare is not going to be as much.“It will be up to the worker to choose the airfare that is cheapest for them,” she told Nepali Times from Tel Aviv. DOFE also agrees that the cost is only an upward estimate, and will probably be less.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01ec9c7e80680e0a3652jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="936" height="784"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Apart from waiving visa costs, Israel has not agreed to Nepal’s request for employers to pay recruitment costs such as airfare. But Israel has a zero-tolerance policy for illegal recruitment costs, which was one of the reasons it had banned Nepali migrant workers in the past.It is the illegal costs under ‘settings’ that many migrant workers are worried about rather than the required expenses because they want merit and performance in the exams to determine their selection for an already very competitive given the limited quota.These fears are further heightened by social media and conversations in Israel exam preparatory classrooms where migrants are told that quotas are pre-determined, fueling fears about the selection process being unfair. Some reported being approached by agents outside training centres offering guaranteed placement in Israel if they paid up to Rs1.1 million because they had connections in high places.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01ee9c7e80680e0a3653jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2060" height="1116"><figcaption>Nepali migrant workers sitting for mock tests earlier this year.</figcaption></figure>Nepali Times also met up with migrants who said they have little faith in the system and are willing to pay because “money makes more money”.“I am ready to pay up to Rs120,000 for a job in Israel, but only if I am given a receipt and guaranteed the job. Even if there is cost to getting the job, it will be worthwhile because I can recuperate the costs within the first year, and send money home to my family,” says one migrant worker.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01f19c7e80680e0a3654jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1794" height="1216"><figcaption>Nepal's Ambassador to Israel Anjana Shakya signs the bilateral agreement to recruit 1,000 Nepali caregivers to Israel.</figcaption></figure>After the exam, a relieved migrant worker said: “The exam went okay but could have been better. I am not sure if I will be selected for the interview round, perhaps yes, if it is fair.”She is applying for the job in Israel because her clothing business failed, but would have stayed on in Nepal and invested in her trade if she had the Rs100,000 that some of the others were willing to pay for the job. If she passes the test, she will be one of the 2,000 who will move on to the interview round. Of them, 1,400 will be selected and this roster will be shared with the Israeli side for the final quota of 1,000 workers.In 2009, Israel stopped recruiting Nepalis after migrant workers were found to be paying hefty fees to recruiters for lucrative job opportunities. It was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/08/07/israel-calling/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/08/07/israel-calling/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631624430377000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF1i1vJyoZlbJ0Vw43oLAsJDxk6_Q">reopened in 2015</a> under a pilot Nepal-Israel government-to-government agreement that was not able to send even the 250 workers as agreed.

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Nepali caregivers sit for Israel job exams

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fcb9c7e80680e03c0c4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1556" height="814"/>During  the upcoming festival of lights called <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2014/10/31/tihar-celebrations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tihar in Nepal</a> and Diwali in India, families will take the opportunity to clean up their valuables, make an inventory of their wealth and store their assets back into a safe deposit box. And explode firecrackers.The big day of Laxmi Puja this year is on 7 November, and people worship the goddess and welcome her home in the hope that she will ensure prosperity in the coming year.Many Nepalis invest in gold or property, and this year everyone will be happy that the value of both have gone up. If you have saved in paper money, a thousand rupee note sadly is now worth only Rs 930 in terms of purchasing power.Last year, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/Business-And-we-all-fall-down,563" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the US dollar</a> was at Rs100 per dollar, this week it is at nearly Rs120. Economists will tell us that the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/Indian-currency-black-market-pushes-rupee-peg-into-debate-again,2752" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali rupee is pegged to the Indian currency since 1956</a>, and hence when its value falls the Nepali rupee also falls. India needs to import a lot of oil which is getting more expensive because the United States  imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela thus decreasing global supply.There has also been a slowdown in India’s economic growth rate, and the US economy is doing well because American companies are bringing home profits from money invested abroad. All this is impacting Nepal via India.There was a time when Nepalis calculated their wealth in number of elephants (Gajalaxmi), number of cows and piles of manure (Gobardhan). Today, the cost of the dollar is a concern, just as it is to buy wine, electronics, cars, or to spend holidays abroad. One in four Nepalis is living abroad, and they send home hard currency, which means the festival of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/167/Culture/5035#.W81543szaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Laxmi Puja</a> will see greater spending than before. This is why despite the Nepali economy having tanked, spending power is high.For tourists visiting Nepal, everything will seem cheaper, but hotel rooms, air tickets, tour packages are all priced in dollars and therefore should really make no difference. They are going to be irritated that entrance fees to Nepal’s conservation areas have gone up since they got on the flight to Nepal.Ideally for those exporting goods and getting paid in US dollars, the situation is rosy, unless you have component inputs like oil, machine parts, ingredients that have US dollar price tags.While everyone complains that everything is getting more expensive, few blame the political parties for the state of the economy. Even fewer demand the Central Bank to “do something”. Should the Nepali currency be un-pegged or should we set a new peg-rate to the Indian currency? Do we need to close the Nepal-India border before we do that? The regulators in China get accused of devaluing their currency to help exports, should Nepal use this opportunity to boost exports?Decisions like these require sound market information which we seem to lack. We rely on tables and indices made by donors and multilateral agencies. One thing we can be sure of is that there will be a seminar on the topic of the falling rupee after Laxmi Puja. Experts will present their views and proceedings will be recorded. Bureaucrats will line up to go on foreign-funded fact-finding junkets to study the impact of currency drops.Actually, the falling value of the Nepali currency against the US dollar is an advantage for Nepalis who depend on remittances, or for those who want to produce and export. It is a really bad deal for those who depend on imports, or those <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sending children off to study abroad</a>. For those earning in dollars and spending in Nepali rupees, things could not be better. For the poor who have no money this whole discussion is a waste of time.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc.

Anil Chitrakar

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Dollar Laxmi

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;