Nepal’s poverty rate may have gone down, but hunger still stalks the land.&nbsp;
Here in the southern plains, paddy fields are parched due to a delayed monsoon, wells have gone dry and half-way through the rainy season only 40% of rice fields have been planted.&nbsp;
The eight districts of Madhes Province produce a quarter of Nepal’s rice, and the projected harvest shortfall this year has led to fears of inflation exacerbated by India’s ban on rice and wheat exports.
Covid, climate change and conflict have created a perfect storm of food insecurity. Record heat waves, droughts and storms have hit the northern hemisphere, and Russia exiting the UN-brokered grain export deal last week &nbsp;made the global fuel, food and fertiliser situation even more precarious.
Nepal’s carbon emission is negligible and the country is not involved in the Russo-Ukraine war, yet both crises have exacerbated food insecurity. And here in the Tarai, it is the most vulnerable families who are most affected.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-karnali-s-hunger-emergency">The Karnali’s hunger emergency</a>, Anita Bhetwal
“Who listens to us small people?” asks Nathuni Yadav in Dhanusa district near the Indian border, gesturing at yellowing seedlings on her cracked and sunbaked paddy patch that should be filled with water this time of year.&nbsp;
Better-off farmers have diesel pumps, but even these have gone dry because the water table has fallen on both sides of the border. It is not just the late monsoon and deficient rainfall that is to blame, over extraction of ground water and rampant quarrying and denudation of the Chure watershed are &nbsp;affecting the entire Nepal Tarai.
The northern areas of the district near the East-West Highway can still pump water, but farmers who depend on rain-fed agriculture have been badly hit.&nbsp;
Even border cities like Birganj with a population of 300,000 do not have water as hand pumps go dry, and there are reports of similar shortages in cities across the border in the Indian state of Bihar. The rain when it does fall, comes in brief torrents and not the usual longer light drizzles.
This year’s water crisis in the Tarai did not happen suddenly, there have been signs over previous years. Haphazard infrastructure, disturbance of the watershed and deficient rainfall reduced recharge of ground water, while over-extraction through deep drilling in Bihar and Nepal sucked up the remaining ground water.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water">Nepal needs to plan for plenty and scarcity of water</a>, Nepali Times &nbsp;
When Ram Baran Yadav went on a state visit to India as president, he had warned Indian leaders including the leaders of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state that the destruction of the Chure would affect the Indo-Gangetic plains in Nepal and India.&nbsp;
This was the first time that a Nepali leader had raised this issue at such a high level in India. But neither has the Nepal government stopped stripping the Chure, nor has India curbed deep drilling for water. The Chure is a gigantic sponge that soaks monsoon water into the ground, but the little rain that falls now runs off its denuded slopes and the pumps lift what water is remaining underground.&nbsp;
The climate crisis is a water crisis, and access to water used to be determined by who bore deep wells for water. But even those with pumps do not have water, and the worst hit are the poorest families like Nathuni Yadav.
Nearly 53% of Nepal’s population now lives in the Tarai, which is also the country’s grain basket. The water crisis will affect food supply, which in turn will increase the push factor for migration. Dhanusha is already the district with the highest rate of out-migration and water scarcity will feed the vicious cycle – lack of food forces people to migrate, and because they migrate there is no one to grow food.&nbsp;
Bishow Parajuli, who till recently was the World Food Programme (WFP) representative in India, says food insuecurity needs short-, medium-, and long-term interventions.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-sets-ambitious-target-for-food-sufficiency">Nepal sets ambitious target for food sufficiency</a>, Ramesh Kumar
He says, “We need emergency response, especially to reach food to the most vulnerable populations. In the medium term we have to control food price inflation due to the Ukraine crisis and the Indian ban on exports, and in the longer term Nepal has no option but to re-farm fallow land, expand irrigation and increase agriculture productivity.”
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who addressed the World Food Summit in Rome this week said all the right things about meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to eliminate hunger by 2030.
But at the rate Nepal is going, zero hunger looks unattainable. Even without this year’s crisis, the proportion of children with wasting remained stalled at 12%, with Madhes and Karnali Province showing an even higher proportion of undernourished children at 30%.
The proportion of stunted children has dropped from 57% twenty years ago to 30%, but it is till double the SDG target of 15%.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/the-pandemic-of-hunger">The pandemic of hunger</a>

Chandra Kishore

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Grain drain

It is that time of the year again when farmers across the country are busy on flooded terraces, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-marks-rice-planting-day/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transplanting rice seedlings</a>, sling mud, singing and dancing to folk tunes, and celebrating the occasion.Unlike in the past, however, National Paddy Planting Day (on 29 June this year) is no longer the optimal time to plant the first saplings. Erratic monsoon, irregular rain leading to too much water or too little due to the climate crisis has meant that farmers are now confused about when to plant paddy.Water sources including natural springs have also started drying up right across the Himalayan foothills. Villagers do not have sufficient water even for their households, let alone agriculture.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223279c7e80680e0c0337jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372232a9c7e80680e0c0338jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Last year Nepal was expected to record its highest annual rice harvest given the early start to the monsoon only for most of the standing crop being destroyed in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">unseasonal post-monsoon cloudbursts</a> in October.“We don’t get rain like we used to which was most suitable for farming, it doesn’t rain on time and when it does it pours,” says Krishna Prasad Adhikari, a farmer in Lumle. “The winds are also stronger and it is hotter to farm during the day.”Kasnath Neupane from Sundarinanda village has a similar experience: “We are now planting paddy about a month later than we used to. If rainfall patterns continue to be this erratic our planting schedule will have to be pushed by 3-4 months.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372232d9c7e80680e0c0339jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223309c7e80680e0c033ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Locals have also seen a declining trend in the number of native rice breeds and fear they might be disappearing. Even in Pokhara, which grows Nepal’s most famous indigenous <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-of-rice-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">varieties of rice</a>, farmers have noticed the change, particularly the loss of the distinctive aroma which makes the rice variety so special.New plant diseases have added to the problem, wiping out entire harvests. This and the additional challenges posed by climate change are making farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture losing their very livelihood and becoming poorer.“Back in the day my father could feed an entire family of almost 10 members and still had a surplus to sell in the market but I can barely grow enough for four people,” adds Adhikari.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223339c7e80680e0c033bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223369c7e80680e0c033cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The only alternative left for many farmers here in Central Nepal’s mountains is to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">migrate to India, the Gulf or Malaysia</a> for better economic opportunities. But as young men move out of the country, there is no one left to till the land, adding to the decline of agro-productivity.The good news is that locals in the villages of Kaski district are saving their local varieties of rice. They have set up a community seed bank to preserve seeds of local varieties that would last them several years with assistance from the Local Initiative for Biodiversity Research and Development (LI-BIRD).“Our local rice like Jethobudo, Gurdi, Darmali, Mansara, Manamri and Ghaiiya are on the verge of extinction but because of this seed bank we have managed to revive some of them including Jethobudo, Paheli and Mansuli,” says Homnath Neupane from Sundaridanda village.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372233a9c7e80680e0c033djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Farmers have also been spreading awareness about planting local seeds over hybrid varieties which in their experience have a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-rice-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">higher yield</a>, but do not have the same capability to survive against diseases.Farmers here have also developed a mobile app to disseminate information about preserving and promoting local seeds of different crops. There are agriculture centres in each village which communicate with each other. There is also a radio program called Chautari which is a reliable source of information for the farmers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372233d9c7e80680e0c033ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223409c7e80680e0c033fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">LI-BIRD has been working with farmers from more than 3,000 households in the Sindhupalchok and Kaski district to scale-up climate-resilient agriculture by promoting crop diversity, improving soil health, conserving water all the while maximising the utilisation of local resources. The project is aimed at building the resilience of smallholder, indigenous and women farmers.Recently LI-BIRD jointly with National Agriculture Research Council and Bioversity International registered five varieties of rice for their conservation, including Rato Anadi, Paheley, Ekley, Kaalo Jhinuwa and Bayerni.“Now the source of these seeds will be preserved,” says Pratikshya Thapa of LI-BIRD, which also works to archive vegetables, millet, yams and medicinal herbs.As farmers marked Paddy Day here on Wednesday, there was concern about how the climate crisis is affecting weather and crop patterns. They have adapted by changing their way of farming based on local knowledge and community effort. The need is now for the government to backstop them with technical know-how and financial support.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223439c7e80680e0c0340jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">“There is no insurance in agriculture. We only ask the government to either provide us alternatives or insure our investment in growing food,” says Adhikari. “We want to learn about more farming methods and crops that can resist the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> impact of climate change</a>.”Just this week on 28 June, based on extensive research the Agriculture Division of the Pokhara Municipality introduced minimum selling prices for 23 crops, vegetables and fruits to help farmers.By setting a minimum selling price, farmers are protected from fluctuating market trends, they can sell at the price set or higher to the customers or approach the Division where vendors will pay the aforementioned price. If the market price is lower than the minimum selling price, the government will pay the vendor to cover the difference.“Agriculture is a sector where farmers suffer right from the seeds to market, from hailstorms to monkey attacks,” says Manahar Kadariya of the Division. “These measures intend to preserve the locally grown crops as well as enhance the livelihoods of farmers.”Another major challenge is the youth moving away from the land. There is an intergenerational disruption in farming.Adds Krishna Prasad Adhikari: “We need to improvise our education system to also include agriculture in the curriculum. Technological advances in farming and institutional support can help revive agriculture in Nepal.”<h3>High and dry in Jumla</h3>At 2,514m, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-red-rice-is-red-hot/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jumla district in western Nepal grows rice </a>at some of the highest elevations in the world. It is the home to the famous Marsi rice but increasingly these indigenous crops are affected by the climate crisis.This has added to food insecurity in a traditionally grain deficit area. Farmers are having to plant crops at higher altitudes for better yield, but they are also vulnerable to new diseases and pests. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/red-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jumli Marsi</a> in particular has been found to be more susceptible to the blast disease.Under its Evolutionary Plant Breeding project, LI-BIRD is working to mix the strengths of different varieties of seeds to develop climate resilient and high performing varieties for future generations.An evolutionary population can be formed segregating seed varieties. Sometimes, varieties having similar functional traits can be mixed turning the static seeds into dynamically evolving populations. Farmers can then select desirable varieties which have higher genetic diversity.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223479c7e80680e0c0341jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">“Due to climate change, some of the varieties that were performing better are now more prone to diseases, insects, and pests,” says team leader Shree Prasad Neupane. “We aim to breed seeds that are more stable in production, less prone to diseases and higher in nutritional values.”Local farmers have also noticed that while non-local improved seeds do result in higher yield in certain parts of the year, this is not consistent. But seeds bred with evolutionary methods have adapted to changing conditions and can also withstand diseases better.But it is not just the quantity that matters in these rugged mountains of western Nepal. Historically neglected by the state, Jumla and surrounding districts are lowest in the human development index in Nepal, with a high rate of malnutrition among marginal and small-hold farmers.Which is why protecting varieties rich in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-superfoods-of-the-andes-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nutritional values</a> like Jumli Marsi is even more important. New hybrid seeds lack important micronutrients.Evolutionary Plant Breeding is also different because it empowers farmers to select the varieties for breeding based on their experience and local knowledge. Communities themselves are breeding the most resilient varieties against production instability, diseases and lack of nutrition, all the problems exacerbated by the climate crisis.Adds Shree Prasad Neupane: “Farmers decide where to plant the seeds and which seeds to plant, which one is better to retain and multiply. And we leave the rest to nature to choose the most suitable one for the subsequent generations.”Erica WuRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/agroecology-nepals-answer-to-climate-change/">Agroecology, Nepal’s answer to climate change</a>, Zachary BartonNobel Rimal helped with this report.

Climate change hits Himalayan rice

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

rice-plantation

Grain drain

Climate change hits Himalayan rice

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138