The Karnali River is older than the Himalaya, having cut its path over millions of years as the mountains rose. This phenomenon has created many wild and scenic gorges with rich biodiversity along Nepal’s longest river. In Nepal, the Karnali is still largely untouched by the development. But roads and hydropower plants are being built. At present, two dams in China upstream and one barrage downstream in India disturb its flow. This is the last of a five part series on The KarnaliRead also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Karnali</a>, Ramesh Bhushal <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a226c9c7e80680e04178ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Mapcha Khambab River in Tibet, China. Mapcha Khambab means peacock’s mouth in Tibetan and is named after a spring which is the spiritual source of the river. The river becomes the Karnali in Nepal and the Ghaghara in India. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a226f9c7e80680e04178bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Karnali River as seen in Yangar village in Humla. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22729c7e80680e04178cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Karnali River in Humla, the only district in Nepal yet to be connected with a road. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22769c7e80680e04178djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>At the altitude of 1,500m the river surprises with alpine forests and palm trees growing together on the river banks in Humla. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22799c7e80680e04178ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A long exposure view of Karnali River below Shreenagar village in Humla. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a227c9c7e80680e04178fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Rice terraces on the flood plain of Karnali River below Shreenagar village. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a227f9c7e80680e041790jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The first scientific expedition team on the Karnali River raft God's House rapids, one of the world class rapid in the world on Karnali River on the border of Achham and Surkhet districts of Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22829c7e80680e041791jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The scientific expedition team camps by the side of Karnali River in Kailali district of Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22869c7e80680e041792jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>An old castle like structure carved into the rock along the Karnali River in Surkhet district of Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22899c7e80680e041793jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Two one horned Rhinos are seen in Bardia National Park. The flood plains of the Karnali River are the source of water for endangered tigers and rhinos. The 968 square kilometres large park is the largest and the least disturbed national park in Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a228d9c7e80680e041794jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The Karnali/Ghaghara River, few meters before meeting the Ganga River in India, and about 100 kilometers northwest of Patna. From India the Ganga then enters Bangladesh where it meets the Brahmaputra. Both rivers then reach the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Part 1: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a>Part 2: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali</a>Part 3: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a>Part 4: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dancing with the river</a>

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A Karnali portrait

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f99c7e80680e041767jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Gurla Mandhata mountain (7,700 metres) south of Mount Kailsh. Locals in Tibet say that mountains are getting less snow in recent years. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>“It isn’t as cold as it used to be a few years ago at this time of year,” says our Tibetan guide Mingmar Tashi as we walk near Mt <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Kailash">Kailash</a> to the source of the Karnali, Nepal’s longest river. This is the biggest tributary of the Ganga by volume, and Nepal’s longest river. It originates in Tibet’s Burang county where in late September residents were all busy harvesting and moving livestock down valley for winter.But winters are changing. Chinese studies show the Tibetan plateau is warming <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange/temperatures-significantly-rise-on-chinas-qinghai-tibetan-plateau-state-media-idUKKCN1N10E5">three times faster</a> than other parts of the world. In southwestern China the mean annual temperature <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927813500347">increased 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade</a>from 1961 to 2010. Other <a href="http://www.icimod.org/?q=20533">studies</a> project that by 2050, the mean temperatures in the Hindu Kush Himalayas will increase by 1-2o Celsius, even 4-5o in some places. Read also:Part 1: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a>Part 2: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali</a>“Snow in the mountains in Tibet is declining and I can see that clearly,” says Mingmar Tashi. A recent Lanzhou University <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312168748_Impact_of_climate_and_elevation_on_snow_cover_using_integrated_remote_sensing_snow_products_in_Tibetan_Plateau">study</a> confirms this: snow-cover in Tibet has decreased at altitudes above 2,000m above sea level, but increased at lower altitudes. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21fd9c7e80680e041768jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Aitan Bhandari from Mohoti, Bajura harvests paddy. This area was hard hit by drought in last few years but due to adequate rainfall this year the production was good. Photo: NABIN BARAL </figcaption></figure>Rising temperatures will lead to more rapid snowmelt, with severe impacts on people living in the region. Flow of rivers that originate in the Tibetan Plateau will be affected, impacting agriculture and hydropower projects. Changes in hydrology in high altitude areas are poorly understood due to high meteorological variability, lack of accessibility and complex interplay between climate, glaciated areas and hydrological processes. Nevertheless, available research shows that seasonal snow cover impacts the water storage capacity of glaciers in a warming climate. Read also:Part 4: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dancing with the river</a>Part 5: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait </a>“Global warming may lead to either rising or decreasing river flows, depending on the state of glacier retreat,” stated a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/33/9222">recent study</a> published in the proceedings of US National Academy of Sciences , comparing glacier melt and river flows in Nepal and Chile.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a22009c7e80680e041769jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1061">Map: STEFANO WROBLESKIA 2015 <a href="http://lib.icimod.org/record/32006/files/StatKraft_Review_final.pdf">report</a> by the <a href="http://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development</a>(ICIMOD) reviewed the impacts of climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, including Nepal: ‘The changing probabilities and magnitudes of extreme events can place additional risk on power generation infrastructure (dams and hydropower plants) as well as secondary infrastructure (roads and transmission lines). Further, hazards associated with shrinking glaciers, such as glacial lake outburst floods, can jeopardise large infrastructure investment.’  It added that since most of the agriculture in mountains is rain-fed it makes farmers highly vulnerable to rainfall variability. Devi Fadera, from Srinagar village in Nepal’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humla_District">Humla</a> district bordering Tibet, was in a rush in early October to harvest golden fields of ripening rice. “The weather is becoming more uncertain every year, so I have to harvest during these sunny days. Who knows what will happen tomorrow,” he says. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a22029c7e80680e04176ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A woman collects yak dung to be used as cooking fuel in Kardung village in Tibet. This is the first village on the bank of Karnali River in Tibet and is also called Mapcha Khambab. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>There has been very little rainfall in the region over the last three years. The drought of 2016 was the worst in the last three decades, but there was sufficient rainfall this year. “Rain was sufficient this year, so the paddy was good,” adds Fadera, whose harvest only feeds his family for six months in a good year. From Fader’s farm, the Karnali can be seen at the bottom of a deep gorge, and there is no way to bring any of that water up for irrigation. Most of the villages along the river depend on monsoon rains. When the food runs out, mule trains bring supplies from elsewhere in the country, but that doesn’t really help much. People in this region have the <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.663.3552&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">lowest purchasing capacity</a> in Nepal. Malnutrition is common, and only 0.9% of the land in Humla is <a href="http://bora.uib.no/bitstream/handle/1956/16997/dr-thesis-2017-Yograj-Gautam.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y">arable</a>. Most men migrate to cities or India to work to supplement their income.Dirgha Shahi was hurrying to Kermi in Upper Humla to get some flour transported from Tibet’s Burang county. The only way to get food from the southern plains of Nepal is via air, and that is expensive. The abundant rainfall in 2018 brought only misery to Shahi. “It was continuous from July and August. Too much water destroyed our vegetables, especially beans,” he says. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a22069c7e80680e04176bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Rangmal Thapa of Sarkegadh in Humla takes out rice stored two years ago from underground. Locals store rice by digging a hole nearby their homes for emergency use in the case of famine or other disasters. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Maheshwar Dhakal, chief of the Climate Change division at Nepal’s Ministry of Forests and Environment admits that it is difficult for the government to integrate climate change into its plans. “However, we have been providing support to several vulnerable communities through local level adaptation projects like <a href="http://www.np.undp.org/content/nepal/en/home/projects/nccsp.html">Nepal climate change support programme</a> which has its major focus in the Karnali region,” he adds. Roads construction was the most visible development activity during our 1,100 km journey down the Karnali from Tibet via Nepal to India. But in Nepal the roads are poorly planned, poorly constructed, and there is thought to the debris as it tumbles down the mountains. In Tibet there is a massive construction spree of huge embankments, highways and urban infrastructure. In Nepal, addressing environmental concerns during construction is not a priority. The government’s project to link the southern plains in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banke_District">Banke</a> district to the northern border in Humla has cut through the mountains. Dynamite blasts were a constant menace as we walked, drove and rafted for down the Karnali River. Geologist Karen Bennett who was a member of our team is shocked to see the unnecessary level of destruction.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a22089c7e80680e04176cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Rampant road construction along the Karnali river. Karnali corridor highway which is under construction will link Nepal's Dailekh to Hilsa in Tibet border. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>“Roads are necessary, but the situation is worrisome,” she says. Most of the settlements along the river corridor are built on landslide-prone areas, and people have built over previous landslides. These are inherently unstable, and improper road construction increases their vulnerability. Incremental investment during construction would have saved the billions that will be needed for future maintenance. Bennet says: “If such haphazard construction continues, villages along the Karnali will suffer badly.”Rampant road construction has already led to <a href="https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/haphazard-road-construction-increases-landslide-risk-in-bajura/">serious problems</a> in recent years. The Karnali Highway linking Nepal’s western border with Tibet was on the drawing board for two decades but moved forward after 2015 when the job was given to the Nepal Army. One of the biggest projects in the country, the 500-km road will link India and China. But it is being built with no attention to basic principles of road engineering in mountain regions. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a220d9c7e80680e04176djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Construction of Karnali Coridor in Nepal's Bajura. Haphazard construction has increased vulnerability of the communities in the fragile landscape. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>All rural municipalities in Nepal have a mission to link each village ward with roads in the next few years. “In the next three to five years we will have all the villages linked with rough roads,” boasts Devraj Devkota, mayor of Panchadeol rural municipality in Nepal’s Accham district. As the hills and mountains are excavated, most of the debris is thrown directly into the river. “This will create geological instability and will have severe impacts on aquatic species,” warns Deep Narayan Shah of the Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University. Blacktopped highways from Tibet have reached the Nepal border, and Nepal is also focusing on enhancing road connectivity with its northern neighbour and all the main corridors are along the major rivers: Sun Kosi, Trisuli, Kali Gandaki and the Karnali. The Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are already connected with Nepal by road. Experts say there is also a need to connect people and governments to be prepared for disasters and the impact of climate change.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22109c7e80680e04176ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Chudari Village in Bajura sits on the landslide debris on the bank of Karnali River. Several villages along Karnali river are on similar kind of old landslides. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Rajan Kotru, from the <a href="http://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development</a>, headed the <a href="http://www.icimod.org/?q=9456">Kailash Sacred Landscape</a> conservation program, the first of its kind involving all three countries in the region. Asked about what he had achieved over the last five years, his answer was diplomatic: “We were able to lay the foundation for dialogue between countries and people at local level. There is also a greater realisation that coming together will benefit all and is necessary.”  Despite this realisation cooperation between Nepal, India and China on river basins is negligible. Nepal shares a 1,400 km border with China and Nepal’s Foreign Ministry has several bilateral mechanisms to talk with China, but none of them involve water resources, even though Nepal’s rivers originate in Tibet.Nepal’s relationship with India on water issues is also sensitive. There is no real cooperation, just formalities, and even so there is no mention of the impact of climate change on shared water resources. The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent instalments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

Climate denial in the Himalaya

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

river-system

A Karnali portrait

Climate denial in the Himalaya

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal Election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138