<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413118/637230519c7e80680e0c255ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1360" height="680"/><figcaption>Photo credit: PROJECT SYNDICATE</figcaption></figure>Today’s energy crisis is potentially worse than similar previous ones – particularly the 1970s oil shocks.Consumers around the world are hit by high prices, businesses worried about energy supplies, political leaders and central bankers struggling with inflation, and countries confronting balance-of-payments pressures.In the 1970s, only oil was involved, whereas this crisis encompasses natural gas, coal, and food. In addition to stoking <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html">inflation</a>, today’s crisis is transforming a previously global market into one that is fragmented and more vulnerable to disruption, crimping economic growth. And, together with the geopolitical crisis arising from the war in Ukraine, it is further deepening the world’s great-power rivalries.This crisis did not begin with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but started last year when <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/surging-electricity-demand-is-putting-power-systems-under-strain-around-the-world">energy demand</a> surged as the world emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. That is when China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/china-s-coal-shortage-means-higher-prices-for-the-whole-world">ran short</a> of coal and prices shot up. The global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) then tightened, with prices <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/petroleum-blog/reflecting-on-2021-global-lng-and-european-pipeline-flows">skyrocketing</a>, and <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/">oil prices</a> rose as well.Normally, with rising energy prices, a country like Russia would have increased its natural-gas sales to its main customer, Europe, above the minimum contracted volumes.Instead, it stuck to its contracts, even though it could have produced considerably more. At the time, it appeared that Russia was trying to force prices up. But, instead, the Kremlin was preparing for war.Because Europe <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russia-drives-european-gas-prices-2022-01-21/">depended</a> on Russia for 35-40% of its oil and natural gas, Putin assumed that the Europeans would protest the invasion, but ultimately stand aside. Fixated on his self-appointed mission of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd/index.html">restoring</a> what he views as Russia’s historic empire, he did not anticipate how they would respond to an unprovoked war next door.Looking ahead, five factors could make today’s energy crisis even worse. First, Putin has opened a second front in the conflict by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/russia-to-cut-gas-exports-to-shell-orsted-over-rubles-dispute">cutting back</a> on the contracted volumes of natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe. The goal is to prevent Europeans from <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/19/historic-day-as-eu-sets-mandatory-gas-storage-level-for-winter-supplies">storing enough supplies</a> for next winter, and to drive prices higher, creating economic hardship and political discord.In his <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669">speech</a> in June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin made his reasoning clear: “Social and economic problems worsening in Europe” will “split their societies” and “inevitably lead to populism … and a change of the elites in the short term.”As it is, Germany is now anticipating the need for gas rationing, and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-says-energy-crisis-may-trigger-lehman-like-contagion-2022-6">warns</a> of a “Lehman-style contagion” (referring to the 2008 financial crisis) if Europe cannot manage today’s energy-induced economic disruptions.Second, a new or revived nuclear deal with Iran is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/french-source-pessimistic-us-iran-can-quickly-resolve-nuclear-deal-differences-2022-05-12/">unlikely</a>. Thus, sanctions on the country will not be lifted – and that means Iranian oil will not be flowing into world markets anytime soon.Third, although Saudi Arabia may step up its oil production to help stabilise oil markets after US President Joe Biden’s visit, no gusher is likely to follow, because there does not appear to be a large amount of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/oil-markets-opec-has-limited-spare-capacity-russia-is-less-relevant.html">extra oil</a> in Saudi Arabia (or in the United Arab Emirates) that can be produced on short notice.Meanwhile, many other oil-exporting countries cannot even return to their <a href="https://qz.com/2115735/opec-countries-are-producing-less-oil-than-they-said-they-would/">previous levels of production</a>, owing to a lack of investment and maintenance since the pandemic.Fourth, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/oil-up-despite-low-china-demand-over-covid-19-lockdowns/35208">China’s demand for oil</a> has been significantly reduced by its “zero-Covid” lockdowns, which have sharply curtailed economic activity. But if it lifts many restrictions, a big increase in oil consumption and demand will follow.Lastly, however tight the market for crude oil, there is even more tightness in the <a href="https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/global-refining-industry-struggles-to-stem-growing-market-tightness/">refining sector</a> that produces the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel that people actually use. This has developed into a complex, highly interconnected worldwide system. Russia was refining products that it was shipping to Europe, while Europe was sending gasoline that it did not need to the US East Coast, and so forth.In some places, the system is going all out, with US refineries already operating at about <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/23/u-s-oil-refiners-margins-smash-records-but-few-plan-to-build-more-plants/">95% capacity</a>. But the system overall still cannot keep up with demand. Russian refineries are functioning <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refiners-signal-deeper-cuts-refinery-runs-amid-overstocking-2022-03-31/">only partly</a>, depriving Europe of oil products; and not enough European gasoline is reaching North America.Chinese refineries are operating at less than <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-19/massive-oil-refining-capacity-idle-in-china-even-as-prices-soar">70%</a> capacity. Some four million barrels per day of refining capacity have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-is-there-worldwide-oil-refining-crunch-2022-06-22/">shut down worldwide</a>, owing to the pandemic, new regulations, and challenging economics. Add in the risk of accidents, poor policy decisions, and a hurricane knocking out refineries on the US Gulf Coast, and the situation could get even worse.That said, a few countries could still boost production. Canada – the world’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/canada-to-increase-oil-gas-exports-amid-push-to-displace-russia">fourth-largest oil producer</a>, after the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia – could provide extra barrels in collaboration with its major market, the US.And US shale oil production is back in gear and could add 800,000 to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/shale-seen-adding-a-million-barrels-a-day-is-back-to-booming">one million barrels</a> per day of new production this year – far more additional production than the rest of the world combined.Other factors that could mitigate the crisis include price changes and how consumers respond. In May, US gasoline <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/us-drivers-begin-to-balk-at-record-gas-prices-stifling-demand">demand</a> was 7% less than in May 2019, before the pandemic. Some of that, however, may be the result of more people working from home.An economic slowdown could also dampen prices. S&amp;P’s latest global <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bafed008810e4de0814abc612ca32706">purchasing managers’ index</a> points to a weakening of economic growth, with US manufacturing activity “slipping into a decline … to a degree only exceeded twice” – at the height of the pandemic lockdown and during the 2008 financial crisis.Likewise, European growth has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-growth-slowed-sharply-june-pmi-2022-07-05/">slowed</a> sharply to a 16-month low. Such slowdowns could reduce demand and lower energy prices. But, of course, they also will strain the Western alliance.The next six months will be critical, testing whether Europe can maneuver its way through the coming winter. In what Habeck <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/bitter-but-necessary-germany-turns-to-coal-to-replace-russian-gas-12636775">called</a> a “bitter” but “necessary” decision, Europe will need to burn more coal.In the difficult months ahead, there will need to be more informed collaboration between government and industry that manages the energy flows on which modern economies depend.© <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&amp;P Global, is the author of <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/320756/the-new-map-by-yergin-daniel/9780141994635">The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations</a> (Penguin, 2021) and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Prize/Daniel-Yergin/9781439110126">The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power</a>, for which he won the Pulitzer Prize.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/fueling-nepals-economic-crisis/">Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis</a>, Sonia Awale

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5 reasons the energy crisis could deepen

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111128/637218549c7e80680e0baa37jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="664" height="450"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The crisis that is consuming Sri Lanka has sent warning bells ringing in Nepal. While sensational media headlines, some of them in the Indian press, have drawn too close a comparison between the two countries, there are parallels.Nepal does not have the kind of debt burden that has forced Sri Lanka to default on its loans. Ironically, it is Nepal’s underdevelopment that cushions it from global upheavals. Politics may be in disarray here too, but at least we do not have an executive president, a prime minister and three other brothers who are ministers in government.Nepal’s disease may not be as severe as Sri Lanka, but <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/A-tale-of-Nepal-and-Sri-Lanka,1086" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the symptoms are the same</a>.For decades, Sri Lanka was the development model that the rest of South Asia strived to emulate. Its 95% literacy, equitable health care, a proficient bureaucracy were the envy of the developing world.But even a well-educated public and effective social security system stand no chance against bad leadership, and can wreck a once-vibrant democracy. The rot in Sri Lanka started as far back as 1956, with ultra-nationalist leaders building vote banks with exclusionary ethnic politics.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/asias-new-cold-war/">Asia’s new Cold War</a>, Dhirendra NalboThe grievances of the minority community piled up, erupting in the anti-Tamil pogroms of 1983, and the inevitable slide to conflict. At one point in the late 1990s, a country half the size of Nepal and with two-thirds of its population had two <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9345#.YoMV3RRBxpQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">civil wars raging</a> at the same time: the ethno-separatist conflict in the north, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=507#.YoMUpxRBxpQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the ultra-Marxist JVP</a> uprising in the south.The JVP insurgency was crushed, but by the time <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15978#.YoMV8xRBxpQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Tamil war</a> came to a violent end in 2009 nearly 100,000 Sri Lankans had been killed. In comparison, Nepal’s Maoists insurgency lasted a decade and left 17,000 dead.The precursors of Sri Lanka’s current crisis lie in post-war politics and the rise and fall, and rise again, of the Rajapaksa family, its greed, ambition and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Here-We-Go/here-we-go-silenced-by-state-sri-lanka,182" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drift towards authoritarianism</a>. Sri Lanka’s thriving tourist industry was destroyed in the deadly Easter bombings in 2019, and the pandemic wiped out what remained. Exports and remittances from its workers abroad slumped.In addition, the Mahinda Rajapaksa in his previous stint had borrowed extravagantly from China for grandiose infrastructure projects, and the Chinese were demanding their pound of flesh.Another Rajapaksa brother as agriculture minister decreed overnight that Sri Lanka would go organic, and banned the import of agro-chemicals. Tea export and food production fell.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukraine crisis</a> could not have hit at a worse time. Fuel prices doubled in a space of weeks, and Sri Lanka had no foreign exchange reserve to pay for imports. Faced with a 40% inflation rate, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-geopolitics-of-food/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a crippling shortage of food</a>, cooking gas and fuel, peaceful protesters were camped out in central Colombo.Then, on 9 May the Rajapaksa brothers sent hired goons to drive out demonstrators from Colombo’s seafront promenade. The police stood by, and visuals of violence went viral on social media. Nine people were killed and scores injured as protests spread nationwide.Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa stepped down, and his much-reviled brother President Gotabaya Rajapaksa swore in Ranil Wickremasinghe as prime minister for the sixth time, beating a record set by our own Sher Bahadur Deuba.This could be too little too late. As long as the Rajapaksas cling to power, Sri Lankans fear that the nepotism, corruption, and mismanagement will continue.The coming weeks are critical for Prime Minister Wickremasinghe, and he himself admits that things will “get worse before they get better”.Sri Lanka is an object lesson for us in Nepal about how <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clean-up-elections-to-clean-up-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">short-sighted leaders</a>, populism, and lack of accountability of elected despots and their dynasties can completely ruin a country that was once so full of promise.Crises like these do not just happen overnight, they are the result of decades of mal-governance by leaders who neglect the needs of citizens. Democracy is supposed to fix that, but this is what happens when leaders hijack the democratic process itself.Nepal has a unique opportunity during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/turning-a-new-leaf-in-2079/">this election year</a> to find leaders that can take the country forward. That so many independent candidates have won <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local elections</a> this week should be a wake-up call for Nepal’s politicians to mend their ways or be swept away by public anger.

How not to be a Sri Lanka

<figure><img width="1000" height="667" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c5a9c7e80680e0bd489jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Already reeling from child hunger and wars in Yemen and across Saharan and central Africa, the developing world is now bracing for the full impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on food supply.Nearly two months into this European war, aside from the horrific suffering in Ukraine, experts warn that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">long-term impact on energy and food prices</a> will affect the world’s most vulnerable people the most.South Asia is already seeing the economic impact of the Ukraine war turn into full-blown political crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Although Nepal’s debt burden is not as serious as Sri Lanka, the soaring import bill for food and fuel, stagnant exports and the collapse of tourism have depleted the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-living-beyond-its-mean/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">foreign exchange reserves</a>. The only saving grace is that remittance from Nepalis abroad showed a slight increase in February.  Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukraine, Climate and Nepal</a>, Sonia AwaleNepal Oil Corporation raised the price of petroleum products again this week to Rs160/l for petrol and Rs1,600 for an LPG cylinder. This will raise the price of food even more. Nepal Rastra Bank verbally instructed CEOs this week to cut LCs for imports of luxury items and real estate loans. The government is mulling a two-day weekend with 9AM start to weekdays, and cutbacks on the government’s fuel consumption. Ukraine and Russia collectively supply more than a quarter of the world’s cereals including wheat. Nepal imports grain from India, which has a stock of nearly 100 million tons and has been sending aid to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/afghanistan-abandoned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Afghanistan</a> and other countries in the region. In March, its export of wheat rose to 8 million tons. This is expected to push up food prices in India, and by extension in Nepal.“We have to quickly establish or identify alternative suppliers for the import of basic food items, maintain a minimum of buffer stocks and implement food or cash-based program that supports and protects the poor who may be affected by the price rise,” Bishow Parajuli, the WFP Representative in India, told Nepali Times.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/growing-appetite-for-school-lunches/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Growing appetite for school lunches</a>, Marty Logan <figure><img width="1000" height="667" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c5d9c7e80680e0bd48ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The knock-on effect of rising food and energy prices will be felt most acutely by the neediest (children, women and the elderly) in counties like Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdown had already deprived many Nepali families of income, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/pandemic-of-poverty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">surveys</a> had shown that their children were eating less. Already, almost half of Nepal’s children are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nearly-half-of-nepali-children-still-malnourished/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suffering from some form of malnutrition</a>.   Despite dramatic strides in reducing stunting (less height for age) to 36% from 57% in the 1990s, progress has stalled. Childhood malnutrition predates Covid-19, but income loss due to the economic fallout of the pandemic and rising costs due to the Ukraine war has made the situation more precarious. The<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/growing-appetite-for-school-lunches/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> WFP’s school lunch program</a> in the remote western mountains of Nepal has helped meet some of the nutritional requirements of growing children. This program is now being handed over to the government to run in 71 districts.   Under-nutrition is a precursor for a host of ailments and a leading cause of child deaths, retarded mental and physical growth, and compromised immune systems. Child hunger in Nepal was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/hunger-for-governance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a sign of political failure</a>, misguided state priorities, lack of accountability and corruption. Covid, the Ukraine war and long-term impact of climate crisis all threaten to make it much worse. With food and fuel prices set to rise even higher, the government needs to prepare for an emergency at a time when it is preoccupied with elections. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/grassroots-democracy-promotes-good-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Elected representatives</a> could help deliver immediate relief with feeding programs for the most at risk. Once they take office, they must launch campaigns for agricultural self-sufficiency, climate-smart farming, and irrigation systems. Says WFP’s Parajuli: “We have to create incentives and encourage farmers to grow their own food especially short-term crops such as the vegetables, and in the medium-term expansion of new season rice plantation, which will start soon.” Read Also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-epidemic-of-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's epidemic of hunger</a>, Anita Bhetwal

Sonia Awale

The geopolitics of food

<figure><img width="630" height="473" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101144/63720e1b9c7e80680e0b78fbjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Ukrainian refugee, Valia, recalls the ‘terrible conditions’ during her 1000 km journey to safety with her 13-year-old son. Photo: ED HOLT/IPS</figcaption></figure>“I never, ever, believed that anything like this could happen,” says Valia*. “Not for a second.”
Just two weeks ago, the English teacher says, she had been living a normal life in Kropyvnytskyi in central Ukraine with her 13-year-old son. But on February 24, she woke up to the news that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/ukraines-lessons-for-sandwiched-nations-like-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia had invaded</a> her country.
After spending one night in a school basement with scores of other people afraid that her town could come under Russian fire, she decided she had to try and get herself and her son <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/trapped-in-ukraine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to safety</a> and began a 1,000-kilometre journey out of the country.
She spent days travelling in what she describes as “terrible conditions” on dangerously overcrowded trains where people became sick. It was sometimes hard to breathe properly because many people were packed into carriages. She then took buses to the border with Slovakia.
There, she waited four hours in the cold before she and her son made it over the border and then on to friends in the Slovak capital, Bratislava
“My journey may sound bad, but when I think about it, I see myself as lucky. I know some people who came from Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine, and they had a terrible journey. It took some of them six days,” she says.
Valia is just one of the estimated more than 2.8 million people, overwhelmingly women and children, who have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalis-flee-ukraine-as-russians-advance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fled Ukraine</a> since the Russian invasion began.
The UN has described the exodus as the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lest-we-forget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WWII</a>. International humanitarian organisations warn there are likely to be many millions more trying to leave the country in the coming weeks as what they have repeatedly described as a humanitarian catastrophe is set to only get worse.
“The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is increasingly dire and desperate. Hundreds of thousands of people have no food, water, heat, electricity, or medical care. Two million people are reported to have left their homes for neighbouring countries, while hundreds of thousands more are trapped in cities desperate for a safe escape,” says Christoph Hanger, spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
Humanitarian organisations have described the scenes in some parts of the country as “apocalyptic”.
The conflict – which has so far claimed the lives of at least 549 civilians as of March 11, according to the UN, although the real figure is thought to be much higher – has left some towns and large parts of cities destroyed.
Infrastructure damage, Russian troops blocking roads, and constant shelling, means that in some places, there is no way to get in even basic humanitarian supplies to residents.
In the city of Mariupol, which has been surrounded by Russian troops and whose authorities have said it is essentially under siege, the situation is said to be desperate.
There have been reports of people fighting each other for scraps of food on the streets as residents begin to starve. Others are simply unable to leave their homes because of constant shelling.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-does-defending-europe-mean/">What does 'Defending Europe' mean?</a>, Slavoj Žižek
Svitlana, a 52-year-old hairdresser, said her life now in the city was spent largely in bomb shelters.
“Life in a shelter is not a life. We are surviving as long as we can. People bring their food and share it in the shelter while the bombing goes on above us. We try to pretend all will be ok, but we all know many of us will die,” she says.
But even in places where there has not been fierce fighting, the toll of war is being felt.
Says Oksana, 35, who lives in Kyiv: “Even though the bombs are not falling here yet, the atmosphere of war is so stressful. The worst thing is that after a day or two, you realise it is not a movie but a fight for life and death. It is hard to explain how terrified I feel. A friend of mine filmed on his phone a Russian warplane crashing in his neighbour’s garden. My mind is simply unable to understand that this is really going on. This has to stop. Otherwise, I don’t know how people will survive and what will happen to food and medicine supplies for people.”
All across the country, medical supplies, in particular, are dwindling while hospitals and healthcare facilities have been targeted by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/ukraine-dispute-can-leave-russia-as-the-losers,259" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russian forces</a> putting pressure on healthcare provision.
People who spoke to IPS said in some places, services are increasingly being focused solely on emergency healthcare and treating war wounded, limiting the capacity for treatment of people with chronic or potentially fatal diseases.
There have also been unconfirmed reports of medics and ambulances being targeted by Russian troops.
Evgenia, who works in the healthcare sector, managed to escape her hometown Irpin, outside Kyiv, just days before it came under heavy fire by the Russian army and was eventually largely destroyed.
She is now in Kyiv, where, she says, many healthcare services are continuing to run relatively normally. But, she says, “in some parts of the country, the only healthcare now is emergency healthcare, nothing else”.
She said any healthcare that involves outreach work has stopped in some towns and cities “because it is now very dangerous, you can get shot just being out on the street” while drug supplies are dwindling because “the roads are occupied by Russian military, and so it is impossible to move medicines from one area to another even if anyone tried to”.
And there are growing problems in the Ukrainian capital, too.
“The queues outside drug stores are long, and they’re often out of medicines now anyway,” she says, adding that NGOs and other groups involved in the response to chronic diseases like TB, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis, social outreach groups for vulnerable populations, including in the LGBT community, had been forced to turn to delivering humanitarian aid on the streets of the capital rather than their usual work.
The deteriorating security and humanitarian situation is driving more and more people to flee their homes. The UNHCR reports that there are as many as 1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country due to the conflict, and as fighting continues, that number is expected to rise, putting more and more strain on resources.
“If the fighting gets closer and closer to more towns and cities, especially in the west, the numbers of refugees will increase, and then there will, because of the numbers, be an even greater strain on services, within Ukraine itself as people move to escape fighting elsewhere, but also in neighbouring countries receiving refugees,” says Toby Fricker, Chief of Communications and Partnerships at UNICEF.
This is already being seen in some parts of the west of the country, which, so far, has seen relatively little fighting and is perceived to be safer, notably in Lviv, a major city in the west of Ukraine. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukraine crisis hits Nepal economy hard</a>, Ramesh Kumar
The UNHCR has forecast as many as 4 million people will be forced to leave Ukraine because of the war.
But while leaving Ukraine provides some hope of safety, for many, the journey itself is fraught with danger, and once across the border, the effects of the conflict remain.
Many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/elderly-left-in-bhutan-refugee-camp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">refugee</a> journeys can be days long, are made in freezing weather, sometimes involve treks for dozens of miles on foot, and sometimes with limited food and water supplies.
Meanwhile, because Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 have been ordered not to leave the country to help defend it if needed, the overwhelming majority of refugees are women and children.
Humanitarian organisations have warned women refugees face an increased risk of exploitation and gender-based violence, while the abrupt separation from partners and fathers can also be traumatic for women and, especially, children, others say.
“Kids are going through having to cope with seeing, for instance, their parents have a last embrace as they go separate ways, and trying to understand why daddy isn’t going with them,” says James Elder, UNICEF spokesperson.
Organisations helping with reception of refugees in receiving countries told IPS that many people who arrive are often exhausted and deeply traumatised.
“What we are seeing very much is that people are turning up in a very deep sense of shock and trauma. Because of the speed at which everything happened, a lot of them are still in a state of confusion. The adults, most of whom are women with children, are still in a state of denial about what has happened to them, about having to leave their countries, businesses, homes, and husbands and partners suddenly,” says Fricker.
Valia, who is now working as a volunteer at Bratislava’s main train station helping the thousands of Ukrainians coming in every day from further east in the country, agrees.
“People are traumatised, but it happened so quickly that a lot of them are just in a state of massive shock. They still can’t quite believe what’s happened,” she says.
Uncertainty is also a worry for many refugees, she says. Some have lost everything, and many have been left with little money as the Ukrainian currency they brought with them cannot be changed now in many countries, and because many people cleared out their bank accounts before they left, any bank cards they have with them are largely useless.
Valia herself says she does not know how long she will stay in Slovakia, and her son wants to return to Ukraine as soon as possible. But she admits she has “no clear idea” what the future holds for her, and others.
“It’s troubling for a lot of people I speak to,” she says.
However, Valia believes she will one day go back to her homeland when peace returns to it.
“I believe I will go back to Ukraine. I speak to other Ukrainians who say they will never forgive Russia for what it has done. But I don’t hold it against the Russian people. Everyone has to come together to stop things like this happening. The world has so many other problems with climate change, poverty, diseases, etc – people should be putting energy into that and not fighting wars like this.”
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukraine, Climate, and Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
*Valia is identified by her first name for her safety.
By arrangement with <a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2022/03/refugees-recount-harrowing-escape-besieged-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR1F1LWwsc3eQFcYtk2Jp37f7ebHYyf-N2btKjtIYwc2Qr53uMR6xrsBMx0">Inter Press Service</a>.

Harrowing escape from Ukraine

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101140/63720d7f9c7e80680e0b78cbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3019" height="2104"/><figcaption>Illustration: RABINDRA</figcaption></figure>On 8 March, international crude oil prices hit a record $139 per barrel due to the Ukraine crisis — nearly double the value last year.The longer the war drags on and sanctions tighten, the higher the prices are expected to go, with a domino effect on economies around the world, including Nepal.Being the world’s second largest producer of oil, Russia’s inability to export petroleum products has created a big gap in supply. Europe’s reliance on Russian gas has also made the Ukraine conflict a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘fossil fuel war’</a>.Nepalis are now paying Rs150 for every litre of petrol and Rs133 for diesel and kerosene at filling stations. And the graph is still going up.The state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) is losing Rs16 for every litre of petrol and Rs12 for diesel it sells, raking up losses of Rs5 billion every month, which means further price hikes are a certainty.What’s more, Nepal is yet to be hit with the full impact of increasing oil prices internationally. The Indian Oil Corporation, which sets a new price for petroleum every 15 days, adding processing, administrative and other charges, is yet to set a new price tag to NOC. India is expected to hike fuel prices after last week’s state elections.“Frankly, we are scared to even estimate our next month’s loss,” says Sushil Bhattarai of the NOC, which has already incurred Rs28 billion in losses in the past six months against last year’s import bill of Rs132 billion.The longer <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalis-flee-ukraine-as-russians-advance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Russo-Ukraine war</a> drags on, supply bottlenecks will remain leading to rising prices at the filling stations. At this rate, the NOC will be unable to pay its bills on its own, and will have no recourse but to further increase the price of petroleum.The government is already under pressure to manage funds for upcoming elections with limited revenue as a result of recent policies aimed at discouraging imports. The NOC is therefore unlikely to be able to dip into foreign exchange reserves to foot the bill.But the hike does not only apply to petroleum. Every hike in the price of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fossil fuel</a> has a knock on effect on the cost of production and transportation. This means consumers have to pay more for all goods from food to gold, and everything in between.Coal, which cost $67 a tonne until a year ago is now at $400. Iron ore was priced at less than $100 per tonne last November, but is now $160 a tonne. A tonne of soybean costs $1,800, up from $1,150. Wheat prices have gone up by 45% in the past month.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101140/63720d829c7e80680e0b78ccjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Petroleum products make up 13% of Nepal’s total imports. Next in the list of high imports are iron and iron products and food grain. In the first six months of this fiscal year, Nepal spent about Rs58 billion on iron and iron goods, Rs77 billion on vehicles and spare parts, Rs64 billion on soybean and palm oil, Rs23 billion on gold and Rs17 billion on coal.As the price of these commodities increase in the international market, Nepal has to dig into its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-remittances-forex-reserves-drop/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">foreign currency reserves</a> to pay for imports.Another notable impact of the Ukraine conflict is on currency depreciation. The exchange rate of the Nepali rupee against a US dollar dropped to a new record depreciation of Rs123.44.Although this means remittance sent by Nepalis abroad will increase in rupee terms, as will the competitiveness of Nepali goods abroad, we are unlikely to benefit because Nepal does not have much to export.Alternatively, as the value of the dollar rises, so does the Nepal’s debt burden, putting additional burden on the state exchequer.To be sure, even before <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/trapped-in-ukraine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Russia-Ukraine war</a>, inflation was at a record high. In fact, the prices of crude oil, metals, food grains and other intermediate commodities have increased sharply in recent years.Moreover, increased demand for goods in countries that had just recovered from Covid-induced recession is leading to supply chain disruptions and a further increase in prices.The war is just adding fuel to the fire, and as result the prices of all essential goods have skyrocketed. Traders and local businesses are also using the crisis to their full benefit."Our market is not competitive as it is and weak regulation means traders set new prices indiscriminately on the pretext of the international price hike," says economist Dadhi Adhikari.For example, soybean oil, which cost Rs120 per litre last year, is now priced at Rs255. Sunflower oil is Rs280 per litre, having seen an increase of Rs40 for a litre.“Prices of most consumer goods in the past month have gone up by 15-20%. When the international market has seen price hike of 30% on average, it is sure to affect our market too,” says Subodh Kumar Gupta of the Association of Nepalese Rice, Oil &amp; Pulses Industry.This price hike also applies to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/are-you-sick-of-chicken/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poultry and eggs</a> even though Nepal is self-sufficient in both products because soybean, wheat and corn used in the feed are imported.“It cost Rs47 just to bring 1kg corn to Kathmandu this time, the highest so far, the price has doubled in a year,” says Rabin Puri of the Grain Producers' Association. Nepal has already imported maize worth over Rs12 billion in the last seven months.Even so, the real effect of the price hike in the international market is yet to be seen, warns the former president of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) Pashupati Murarka."The goods in the market currently are from stocks. So we are yet to experience a full-scale impact," he says, adding that the cost of construction materials like cement, iron road and plastics will also soon increase. Iron rod has already registered its highest ever price at Rs135 per kg.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101140/63720d859c7e80680e0b78cdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="881" height="537">Nepal has been experiencing moderate inflation in the past six years. It rose to 7.11% in November but came down to 5.66%. However, the NRB estimates that the inflation rate could reach double digits this year. The monetary policy for the current fiscal year had set a target of limiting the inflation rate to 6.5%.Former Executive Director of NRB, Nara Bahadur Thapa, says that there is indeed a risk of double-digit inflation. "Consumers have been hit hard again by inflation, with the poorest and most vulnerable bearing the biggest burden," he adds.On the other hand, rising prices of petroleum products and raw materials in the international market will also increase the production cost of Nepali industries. This means a higher cost of development projects, which in turn will force the government to increase the budget allocation for such projects.This worsening war also has far-reaching consequences for Nepal’s balance of payments deficit which will widen in the coming months, putting more pressure on foreign exchange reserves.In recent months, Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves have been depleting fast with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-living-beyond-its-mean/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">imports exceeding earnings</a>. Nepal has lost about 23% of its foreign exchange reserves in the last year.In January 2021, Nepal had enough foreign exchange reserves to import goods and services for 12 months and 18 days at $12.77 billion, primarily due to reduced consumption during the pandemic.But as the Covid-19 subsided and imports rose again, its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/economic-downturn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">foreign exchange reserves dwindled</a> to $9.88 billion by January this year, enough to pay for only six months and 18 days worth of imports.In the same period, Nepal's balance of payments deficit stood at Rs241 billion, which is a record high. Such a sharp decline in foreign exchange for a country like Nepal, which does not have a reliable and sustainable source of hard currency earnings, spells disaster.As commodity prices rise in the international market, Nepal will also have to pay more for the same amount of goods. As of February, the import volume of petrol has increased by only 24% as compared to the same period last year, but due to the increase in the price in the international market, Nepal has to pay 110% more.Likewise, the import volume of diesel has increased by 10%, yet the cost of its import increased by 84%. While the import volume of coal decreased by 3%, the amount to be paid increased by 38%.Even though the import volume of iron and steeel products remained the same as last year, the price to be paid by Nepal has increased by one-third.Nepal has already incurred Rs1 trillion in trade deficit in the first seven months of this fiscal year. While the country spent Rs11.47 trillion in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">importing goods</a>, it has exported products worth only Rs131 billion.In response, the NRB in recent months has been deploying various measures to discourage imports. But it is ineffective in the face of international price hikes for commodities. Even if Nepal drastically reduces imports, it will not be able to reduce the amount it is due.Another major impact of this will be felt in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-precious-electricity-going-waste/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">power sector</a>. Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has been importing 600MW of electricity from India. But due to the increased price of coal and supply bottleneck, India has started cutting 200MW that it has been providing to Nepal at a concessional rate. Moreover, Rs3 per unit that Nepal has been paying India has now increased to Rs7.If India further cuts power export due to an energy crisis, Nepal risks going back to electricity rationing. Although the installed capacity of Nepal's electricity generation now exceeds 2,000MW, it falls to one-third during the dry winter months when river flows is low. The rest has to be augmented with imports from India.Translated by Sonia Awale from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/128766">Nepali original</a> at <a href="http://himalkhabar.com/">himalkhabar.com</a>

Ukraine crisis hits Nepal economy hard

Fenerbahçe Beko won the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague finals in Abu Dhabi, held 23-25 May, defeating Monaco 81-70 in the final. Olympiacos, who defeated Panathinaikos 97-93, finished the series in third place. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the final match, Nigel Hayes-Davis from Fenerbahçe Beko, received a prize of 1,000,000 Miles&amp;Smiles from Turkish Airlines’ Chief Commercial Officer Ahmet Olmuştur. The carrier has been the title sponsor of the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague, a top tier tournament, since 2010.

Turkish Basketball

Thousands of Nepali students dreaming of an American education have been forced to look elsewhere as the Trump administration’s visa restrictions make their future uncertain.
The US was long considered a top destination for higher studies, making Nepal the 10th biggest country of origin for international students in America.&nbsp;
However, that number has seen a significant decline with the total for Nepali students now at 16,482. Some 8,000 Nepali students obtained no-objection certificates to study in the US from the Ministry of Education in the past year.&nbsp;
India, Australia, Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom and Japan are the other popular destinations for Nepali students. There are no clear numbers for Nepalis going to India, but a slight decline was noted this year after the deaths of two female students.
The US State Department has issued a circular to its embassies not to issue new visas to applicants until further notice. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the directive stated that the department planned to expand the screening of applicants' social media.&nbsp;
While new applicants are barred including those applying for visitor visas, students with scheduled interviews are allowed to proceed.
“Many of our students are affected by the new restrictions, but those who had applied for student visas earlier have got interview dates,” one Kathmandu-based college counsellor told us.
Meanwhile, even foreign students with spotless records already in the US have not been spared, as visa scrutiny intensifies under the new policy. In a move that underscores the growing sense of insecurity, many US colleges advised international students to carry their passports and documents at all times, even when traveling locally.
“Me and my friends did not go home this summer because we were not sure we would be allowed back, so we just went to Niagara Falls,” said a Nepali undergrad in Ohio, who like many interviewed for this report did not want her name used for fear of repercussion.
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Nepali students have adopted a cautious stance, with many choosing not to return home during summer vacation due to fear of visa revocations as well as travel bans. Meanwhile, over 7,000 Nepalis with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) will have to come back to Nepal by 5 August or face deportation. Thirty-seven were flown back to Kathmandu on Omni Air last week.
“The US is one of the most sought-after destinations for higher education, and the ban will definitely impact bright students,” says Narottam Aryal of the King’s College in Kathmandu.
Indeed, Nepali undergraduates admitted into Ivy League colleges for the 2025 academic year have been asked to look for alternatives. The entire Fulbright Foreign Scholarships Board resigned on Wednesday citing interference from the Trump administration on the selection of this year’s cohort. Some Nepali students already on Fulbright scholarships have noted disruptions, delays and even cancellation of stipends.&nbsp;
The student visa restrictions were initially just for foreign students admitted to Harvard University, but it was later extended to all Chinese students and now to all students. Universities like Columbia which actively recruit foreign students, face sharp enrolment declines, threatening their financial stability and diversity.
An Indian female PhD candidate at Columbia University had her visa revoked by the US State Department, and said she was targeted on the basis of her social media posts on Israeli military attacks in Gaza. Social media vetting of political activism has raised concerns about privacy and freedom of expression in a country where such rights were a given.
Many students have been informed via email that their visas have been revoked for getting speeding or parking tickets, but even others with no criminal record have been affected. The fear of deportation looms large amongst international students, including those from Nepal.&nbsp;
For most Nepalis who migrate to the US for education, the journey is a high-stakes investment. They come largely from middle-class families, often rely on a patchwork of scholarships, work-study programs, loans, or even the sale of family assets to afford fees.
Most Nepali students pursue STEM subjects which offer extended Optional Practical Training (OPT) periods that help fund their education. But with the US backsliding on education and humanitarian matters, countries like the UK and Canada are becoming more attractive despite their own recent stricter controls on student visas.&nbsp;
The UK universities saw a 63% rise in Nepali students’ admissions in 2024. Japan is another popular destination with 64,816 Nepali students enrolled as of 2024.
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Already, China, Hong Kong and Malaysia are poised to benefit from the increased scrutiny of US student visas. Several Hong Kong universities are offering unconditional admission to affected students, while Malaysian institutions are targeting previously US-bound Asian students. China and India have 330,000 and 280,000 students respectively in America, but the numbers for China have seen a sharp drop in the past year.
Elsewhere, branch campuses of American institutions such as NYU in Abu Dhabi, Georgetown in Dubai and Northwestern in Doha are getting more admission applications, and universities in the Gulf region are expanding infrastructure to accommodate those who would otherwise have gone to the US.&nbsp;
Even educational institutions in Nepal are hopeful that the US visa restrictions can be an opportunity to at least keep Nepali undergrads in Nepal, and also attract foreign students from the region.&nbsp;
“Many students might choose to complete their undergraduate degree here in Nepal and then move abroad for their Master’s degree later,” says Aryal of King’s College. “There was a need for quality higher education in Nepal anyway in terms of innovation and opportunities, so this could be the time to reduce our dependence on other countries.”
Nepal’s strategic position between India and China makes it sensitive to US policy shifts. India, a key ally, is also under US scrutiny for potential student travel restrictions. Chinese universities are already offering more scholarships to Nepali talent to capitalise on the US retreat.
American universities have challenged student visa restrictions in the courts. A federal court in Boston revoked the blanket ban on Harvard, and the State Department has ordered the resumption of processing student and exchange visitor visas.&nbsp;
Some are still hoping that President Trump will backtrack on the student visa restrictions, just like he has done with many of his more drastic executive orders.
Even so, the visa see-saw and longer-term uncertainties about living in the United States and its education system means students across the world are making alternative plans.
Says Aryal: “Policies of foreign countries change according to their needs, so excessive dependence was never a good idea. We should work to create different opportunities and choices of higher education within Nepal, so students are retained.” &nbsp;

America no longer prime destination for Nepali students

That winter day in January 1664 marked an exceptional event in the reign of King Pratap Malla of Kathmandu. It was 15 Paush 784 of the Nepal Sambat and for the first time, a historical event was being immortalised on canvas for generations to come.&nbsp; The occasion was the grand Tuladaan ceremony of the King’s youngest son Chakrabartendra Malla from his wife Anantapriya, an Indian princess from Cooch Behar in present-day Assam.&nbsp; During the ritual, the prince was weighed against gold, silver, pearls, and other precious stones, which were then offered to Goddess Taleju Bhavani, the guardian deity of the Malla dynasty.&nbsp; The 170 x120cm painting captures the time of King Pratap Malla in all its splendour and is more than a personal tribute to his son: it is a significant visual historical document. It was evidently completed five years later in 1669, and could be considered a photographic record, with retrospective recreation of the event by the unknown artist. A Tuladaan ceremony is performed to purify one’s karma, quell impending bad luck, or as an act of charity and devotion. Chakrabartendra Malla was not well, and the ritual was performed in hopes of restoring his health. King Pratap Malla had arranged for each of his sons to take turns ruling Kathmandu so they got administrative experience. But Chakrabartendra died just two days after assuming power in 1670 (790 NS). This painting is considered the earliest known example in which the composition is dominated by an architectural landscape: the Taleju Temple. Given the stylistic features such as side-profile facial depictions and the rendering of human forms, it is believed that the Nepali artist was trained by a Rajput master.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250615040624_ddad3bc27a327e3f9926c8473287e4f14b53081296c295049009f327a4d97051.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250615040624_ddad3bc27a327e3f9926c8473287e4f14b53081296c295049009f327a4d97051" data-rendition-name="original" width="3248" height="4395" loading="lazy" alt="Tuladaan NT"> </figure>  During that era, there were regular exchanges of artists between Northern India and Kathmandu Valley. The painting is also a melding of Nepali, Tibetan, Mughal, and Rajput art styles of the time. Pratap Malla could have been inspired by a painting of Mughal Emperor Jahangir’s Tuladaan ceremony for his son Khurram in 1607. The Mallas and Mughals shared cordial relations, which is reflected in the cultural influences seen in the art and attire of the period.&nbsp; The clothing of the Malla ruling class, in particular, features colourful tunics, turbans, and jewelry that display strong Rajput and Mughal stylistic elements. The musicians in the upper tier are also dressed in Indian-style clothing, while the ensemble on the lower steps wear local attire, notably without turbans. Their hairstyles also differ, with the lower group wearing their hair tied in a bun at the front. This national treasure is currently in storage at the Collège de France in Paris, and has never been publicly displayed. Nepal’s art scholars like Gautam Vajracharya, Pratap Aditya Pal and Anne Vergati have written about this iconic paubha in the past, but the only detailed study is from the perspective of music history by researcher Richard Widdess who had access to high resolution copies of the original.&nbsp; Widdess from the Department of Music at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London describes the paubha as the most significant and richly detailed documentation of music in Nepali art. He identifies distinct musical ensembles on the terraces of the temple, and remarkably most of them are actively used today. One of them reflects the Mughal naqqārakhāna model — a loud outdoor ensemble typically composed of kettledrums, trumpets, and cymbals, traditionally performed from the gateway of the emperor’s palace to announce his entrances and exits. The depiction of such an ensemble in the tulādāna painting is likely the earliest known representation of a complete naqqārakhāna in Nepal — considered the forerunner of the panche baja, the traditional Nepali ensemble. On the stepped pyramid base of the temple are two groups of musicians playing local instruments: dhimey, bhushya, and dha. They are unmistakably Newar musicians, wearing short skirts and short-sleeved tops, with bare heads and legs—clearly distinguished as local performers.&nbsp; Higher still on the temple pyramid are musicians of apparently higher status, positioned close to the king, and his courtiers, possibly professional court musicians from India, well-versed in rāga and tāla. A dāphā group is also clearly depicted, identifiable by their characteristic instruments.&nbsp; Dāphā bhajan is likely the oldest surviving tradition of Newar devotional singing, and this paubha is the oldest visual record of it. Pratap Malla himself is believed to have composed songs that continue to be performed by dāphā groups throughout Kathmandu till today.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025061211064_d67636730cdc0ec778c02494817aca0b99654f2950d0fae4b95499a61faf7ef3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025061211064_d67636730cdc0ec778c02494817aca0b99654f2950d0fae4b95499a61faf7ef3" data-rendition-name="original" width="596" height="768" loading="lazy" alt="Priceless paubha in Paris NT"> </figure>  The artist’s thorough attention to musical detail may be attributed to King Pratap Malla’s own deep interest in music. His inscriptions on this painting and elsewhere proclaim his mastery of all branches of knowledge, including music. He is also known as the author of dance dramas and poems, penning his name as Kavindra (king of poets). Some noteworthy elements of new art techniques stand out: for example, the roof of the temple is filled with realistically rendered white doves, pigeons, and crows. This is a rare feature in paubha, where animals and birds are stylised, mythological forms. This remarkably talented unknown artist has managed to also render an orthographic projection: the front and side view of Nepal’s first architectural paubha. The Taleju Temple, with its staggering multi-tiered structure and numerous steps and platforms, is masterfully translated into layers within the painting. This represents a significant artistic achievement of the time, especially considering that dimensional perspectives had not started in deity-based paubha.&nbsp; The artist has also made a meticulous effort to capture architectural details such as the toran (ornamental arch) and temple struts with impressive precision. There are flickering lamps along the steps and some people carrying what appear to be oil pots.&nbsp; It is a full moon night and the dark sky is adorned with all the gods and goddesses, who are depicted as blessing the ceremony while seated on stylised thangka clouds. There is a lot happening in this painting, with people engaged in various activities. The artist has also rendered a forest backdrop behind the temple, complete with deer, trees, and flowers. Could there have once been a royal garden behind the Taleju Temple?&nbsp; More details and clarity can only be achieved if we are able to view the original or a high-resolution scanned version of the artwork. Many countries proudly display art depicting historical events in their national museums with great reverence. France, for example, has The Coronation of Emperor Napoleon and Empress Joséphine by Jacques-Louis David (1808–1822), along with numerous paintings of the Napoleonic Wars. Many were commissioned by Napoleon himself for future generations to remember.&nbsp; For Nepal, the equivalent is the Tuladaan paubha which is a visual record capturing a historic moment involving one of Kathmandu’s greatest kings, on the very day the event took place. Sadly, we await the day when this masterpiece is displayed, shared in high resolution for detailed study, or more rightfully — repatriated to its homeland, where it truly belongs. &nbsp; Shaguni Singh Sakya is the Director of the Museum of Nepali Arts (MoNA) at Kathmandu Guest House in Thamel. <h2>Gods homeward bound</h2> The Nepal Heritage Recovery Campaign and Nepal’s Department of Archaeology are convening the first international conference on the Recovery of Cultural Heritage from 16-18 June in Patan. The conference will address urgent issues of theft, illicit trafficking, the campaign to repatriate looted cultural artifacts, and explore how the return of sacred antiquities contributes to justice, healing, and reconciliation for communities and nations affected by cultural loss. American art crime professor Erin L Thompson and Saubhagya Pradhananga of the Department of Archaeology will deliver the keynote. Meanwhile, author and Nepali Times publisher Kunda Dixit will lead a conversation on Illicit Trafficking: Public Opinion and Role of Media with Erin Thompson, Amr Al Azm, associate professor of Middle East History and Anthropology at Shawnee State University in Ohio, as well as Bradley J Gordon, a lawyer based in Phnom Penh. There will be sessions looking at repatriation perspectives from Cambodia, India, Vietnam, China and Poland, international frameworks for repatriation, emerging digital technologies in the repatriation of cultural heritage, cultural property agreements, museums as well as trends in the art market, and heritage diplomacy and the role of media.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025061211068_59cfccfa8f5d73bfe8b4c5811a7f53abc09ea04e8cb7c638933d62e5283efdf6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025061211068_59cfccfa8f5d73bfe8b4c5811a7f53abc09ea04e8cb7c638933d62e5283efdf6" data-rendition-name="original" width="1080" height="1350" loading="lazy" alt="Heritage recovery NT"> </figure>  <h2> </h2> Some of the other highlights include James K. Reap, a professor in the Master of Historic Preservation Program at the University of Georgia who has a session on the US response to illicit trafficking. Art historian Lea Saint-Raymond is taking on “Gods at Auction: The Market for Himalayan Artefacts”, while lecturer of criminology at the University of Glasgow Emiline Smith is delving into transformative approaches to heritage ownership and repatriation. Helena Arose of Antiquities Coalition and Melina Antoniadis of NOSTOS Strategies that specialise on the return home of cultural heritage as well as Hao Liu of International Cultural Heritage Law at the School of Law at Shandong University are some of the others attending. The Nepal Heritage Recovery Campaign was set up in 2020 to develop a coordinated movement to reclaim Nepal’s stolen gods and goddesses, with an aim to ensure that recovered items are returned to their original shrines, niches or sanctums. Ahead of the conference opening organisers have arranged for a film screening of Loot &amp; Return: 4 Documentaries at YalaMaya Kendra in Patan Dhoka between 14-15 June. Following the conference is a multimedia exhibition titled Absent Gods: Nepal’s Lost Heritage from 31 July to 4 August at Patan Museum.

Priceless paubha in Paris

While Nepal was hosting the Sagarmatha Sambaad international climate conference in Kathmandu this month, on Mt Everest it was pretty much business as usual.&nbsp; The signs of climate breakdown are all there: a river now runs through Base Camp in summer, the Khumbu Icefall is more unstable, and there are more &nbsp;frequent avalanches. When expeditions arrived in March, the mountains were bare: it had not snowed since September, but then blizzards dumped unseasonal snow in May. And despite climate worries, such is the pull of Himalayan mountaineering that the Everest Industry showed no signs of slowdown. More than 600 international climbers and their Nepali guides had made it to the summit of the world’s highest mountain. At one point there were an estimated 2,000 people in the tent city on the Khumbu Glacier. All the ropes and ladders on the Icefall came down on Thursday, marking the official end of the spring climbing season, and just in time to avoid a monsoon cyclone approaching from the Bay of Bengal. It has been an action-packed season. One factor could be that Everest fees will go up from September: each foreign climber needs to pay a $15,000 royalty, up from the present $11,000. The cost for a Nepali climber on the South Col route will also go up: from Rs75,000 to Rs150,000.&nbsp; The fee to climb Everest in autumn is $7,500 (up from $5,500), but most climbers still prefer spring. Winter permit fee (December-February) is only $3,750 per person and the mountain is now also open for monsoon (June-August) climbs, when the fee is ever lower at $2,750. The revised rule also makes it mandatory for every two climbers on an 8,000m peak to hire one Nepali mountain guide.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025053004050_67f856fe52714e4bdcf21ae7d45c6f18c82117b9d0a5f73ed1efa04c96de1046.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025053004050_67f856fe52714e4bdcf21ae7d45c6f18c82117b9d0a5f73ed1efa04c96de1046" data-rendition-name="original" width="931" height="732" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry graph 1"> </figure>  In addition, climbers also have to pay for porters and guides, equipment, Base Camp costs, Ice Fall and fixed rope team fees, so climbing Everest does not come cheap. But such is the draw of climbing the world’s highest peak that some say the increased fees will not diminish the crowds next year. The government has tried to spread expeditions out to other seasons and other 8,000ers, but with not much success. Earlier this year, Nepal unilaterally increased the number of 8,000m peaks to 14 by adding six more sub-summits to broaden the choice for climbers. Added were: Yalung Kang (8,505m), Yalung Kang West (8,077m) &nbsp;Kangchenjunga Central (8,473m), Kangchenjunga South (8,476m), Lhotse Middle (8,410m) and Lhotse Shar (8,400m).&nbsp; The announcement could go against the accepted topographic criteria that a stand alone peak has to be at least 300m higher than an adjoining prominence, and at more than 3km isolation from it. The UIAA (Union Internationale des Associations d'Alpinisme) still recognises only 14 mountains as eight-thousanders, and only eight of those are in Nepal, or on the border with China. Nepal’s revised mountaineering regulations also increased the insurance coverage of high-altitude workers to protect porters and high altitude guides who usually take more risks on the mountains. Rescue teams and clean-up campaigners to collect trash and remove bodies of dead climbers up to Camp IV of Mt Everest do not need permits.&nbsp; The Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee is now using drones to fly down trash in 20kg sacks. Each climber is also required to bring down at least 6kg of waste and not just their own, but this rule is erratically enforced. With five fatalities on Everest and Lhotse, Spring 2025 had a historically low death toll. Another five climbers died on Annapurna, Kangchenjunga and Makalu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025053004050_38681de22f0fefb6faa12b01755566d09c5064d0ff84e12ccc7b5d68ea9ba38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025053004050_38681de22f0fefb6faa12b01755566d09c5064d0ff84e12ccc7b5d68ea9ba38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="665" height="740" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest industry graph 2"> </figure>  Journalist Ben Ayers who ran the Everest Live social media channel from Everest Base Camp with daily updates credited the low death rate to dramatic rescues of climbers from the ‘Death Zone’ by their Nepali guides and longline helievacs — the visuals all uploaded on YouTube.&nbsp; “Ironically, this perception of safety is bringing more and more inexperienced climbers to the mountain, and they need more rescues,” Ayers said in one of his dispatches.&nbsp; American expedition chronicler and summiteer Alan Arnette suspects there is a lot of under-reporting given that the jet stream and storms were lashing Everest even till late in the season. He told us: “I heard a lot about frostbite and rescues that were not made public. It’s become practically impossible to cover the details on Everest. All the teams report nice news, and they don’t talk about bad stuff to avoid hurting businesses.” Although trash on Nepal’s mountains makes headlines, what does not receive as much attention is the climate impact of so many expeditions. The Sagarmatha Sambaad conference sidestepped this issue, which is ironic given that the impact of climate breakdown is most evident on Himalayan peaks and their glaciers.&nbsp; <h2>Need for Speed</h2> The big stories this year have been about speed-running from their home cities to the top of Everest. Ukrainian entrepreneur Andrew Ushakov flew out of JFK on 15 May at 10:15AM Nepal time, and was on the summit 3 days, 23 hours, and 7 minutes later on 19 May at 9:22AM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250601080640_1c5cc6fc991307861768f07037ed9d30930fb20f35dbb57dc31c9a92a9e1a885.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250601080640_1c5cc6fc991307861768f07037ed9d30930fb20f35dbb57dc31c9a92a9e1a885" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="1800" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry"> <figcaption>Andrew Ushakov at the summt. Photo: ELITE EXPED</figcaption> </figure>  “I could never find the time for the traditional 40-50 days of acclimatisation,” Ushakov explained matter-of-factly. His ‘Everest Sea-to-Summit’ climb was possible because he spent 400 hours in hypoxic sleep tents over the past four years in New York. However, Ushakov did use ropes already fixed, hired four Nepali guides, helicoptered to Base Camp, and used much more oxygen than an average climber. And after the climb, Ushakov was arrested at Kathmandu airport for being in possession of $20,000 of undeclared cash and spent a night in jail and fined $60,000.&nbsp; The other speedsters were Garth Miller, Alastair Cairns, Anthony Stazicker, and Kev Godlington, all former British Army commandos. They left London and summited five days later on 21 May, and flew right back. They also used hypoxic tents to simulate the thin air high on Everest.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250601080644_90c8dd5cc07b4b43f2989b1dc0c0650ab80f10ebb06680c25a6909c519957bd8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250601080644_90c8dd5cc07b4b43f2989b1dc0c0650ab80f10ebb06680c25a6909c519957bd8" data-rendition-name="original" width="810" height="668" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry "> <figcaption>All four members of the Furtenbach team at the summit. Photo: Sandro Gromen-Hayes</figcaption> </figure>  But more controversial was their use of xenon gas therapy in a German hospital to ramp up the production of oxygen-carrying haemoglobins in their blood. Xenon is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency for being performance enhancing in sports. Expedition leader Lukas Furtenbach said this rule does not apply to mountaineering, as it is not a regulated sport like swimming. Nepal has no rules about xenon, but the Department of Tourism said it was launching an ‘investigation’ to decide on future policy since it is difficult to ban xenon, but allow oxygen. The controversy has also divided the mountaineering community, with some climbers saying they just want to maximise their chances of survival. Spending less time on the mountain could make climbing safer by reducing avalanche risk. It would also mean less trash on the mountains, but it would reduce the income of Nepal’s expedition industry. It is also unclear how much of the success was due to xenon therapy and whether the ex-special forces were already in good physical shape.&nbsp; The need for speed hides the fact that climbing in the Himalaya is dangerous business, and climbers cannot sprint to the top just by huffing xenon. But ultra-fast climbs could be charged more, and the revenue generated can be used to establish state-of-the-art rescue operations, and increase pay and insurance for guides. Two other speed chasers this season were Swiss-Ecuadorian Karl Egloff and American Tyler Andrews, both on Everest without oxygen. Andrews choppered to Base Camp to catch a weather window, but turned back from 8,500m due to high winds. Heavy snow and wind also forced Egloff to descend from 7,000m. Slow and steady climbers like Anja Blacha from Germany did make it to the summit without oxygen, while Kami Rita Sherpa broke his own record with his 31st Everest summit as he led a 26-strong Indian Army group. There were 468 permits issued for foreign climbers from 48 expeditions to Everest this spring. Nepal’s other eight-thousanders together had only 17 expeditions. Nepal has more than 1,000 peaks above 6,000m, and has opened only 476 of them for climbing.&nbsp;

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