<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722efd9c7e80680e0c24f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1599" height="1236"/><figcaption>All photos: BIKAS RAUNIYAR</figcaption></figure>Sajha Yatayat inaugurated its electric public transport service with three buses on two routes in Kathmandu on Thursday with female drivers and conductors.The first bus on the Lagankhel-Lainchaur-Budanilkantha route was flagged off by founding chair of the public transport cooperative and former minister Biswa Bandhu Thapa, 95. The other route for the electric buses is Balaju Bus Park -Baneswor-Airport.This is Sajha’s long-delayed foray into electric public transport and the three Chinese-made CHTC buses will be followed by 37 others in August. In the third phase, Sajha will be inducting intercity electric buses. The government had allocated Rs3 billion for the purchase of the buses.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f019c7e80680e0c24f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="495"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f039c7e80680e0c24f3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="447"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f069c7e80680e0c24f4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="466">The shift to electric from diesel comes amidst record-breaking rise in fuel prices in the past year. Diesel prices which had risen to Rs192/l dropped to Rs163/l after the government slashed taxes on the fuel.But petroleum imports have doubled in the past five years, widening Nepal’s trade deficit with India. Fuel makes up up to 20% of Nepal’s total imports, and is double of all other export items put together.Economists and climate activists say that if Sajha’s trend is followed, Nepal can reduce its petroleum import, and has a chance of achieving the net-zero carbon target by 2050 that it pledged at COP26 in Glasgow last year under its Nationally Determined Contribution.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f0a9c7e80680e0c24f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1289" height="993"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f0d9c7e80680e0c24f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1484" height="930">

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Sajha starts e-bus service in Kathmandu

Nothing could be more symbolic of Nepal’s goal of being net-zero in energy by 2045 than the sight on new year’s day on Thursday as three new Chinese electric buses drove past a hydro-electric plant and a solar panel array on the Bhote Kosi River.The three buses are the first of 40 battery-powered buses ordered by the Sajha Yatayat cooperative public transport service from China. They will be running on renewable energy generated by power-plants like the 45MW <a href="https://www.bhotekoshi.com.np/index.php" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.bhotekoshi.com.np/index.php&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650092562397000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3sGdzihFRmy8Okph2swkt6">Upper Bhote Kosi</a> hydroelectric project along the Arniko Highway to the Chinese border.The three buses arrived at the Tatopani customs on Saturday, and will be brought to Kathmandu on flatbed trucks, since the highway is rough in places for the low-clearance buses. And after undergoing gradient, roadworthiness and range tests in Kathmandu, the other 37 buses will arrive later this year.  <figure><img width="4032" height="2268" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721cf79c7e80680e0bd4c0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>New Chinese-made electric buses drive past the 45MW Bhote Kosi hydroelectric project and its solar power array on Thursday after entering Nepal. Photos and Video: BHUSHAN TULADHAR</figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721cfb9c7e80680e0bd4c1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721cfe9c7e80680e0bd4c2jpeg.jpg" alt="">One of the three buses that Sajha Yatayat imported from China drive past the Upper Bhote Kosi hydroelectric project on Thursday. Thirty-seven more buses are on order. The $3.7 million deal with China’s CHTC company also includes the supply of 20 chargers of 90kW each, which can top up the batteries in two buses simultaneously in four hours.  “This is the future for transportation energy in Nepal,” says Sajha Yatayat board member and clean energy activist Bhusan Tuladhar. “We have to transition to electric public transport not just to reduce our carbon footprint and petroleum import bill, but also to reduce air pollution from diesel vehicles.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-backs-evs-to-boost-hydro-electricity-uptake/">Nepal backs EVs to boost hydro-electricity uptake</a>Tuladhar talks about how the buses will address Nepal’s 3E’s: energy management, environment management and economic management. “Electric buses are a win-win-win for us,” he adds. “Although the capital cost is high, with diesel prices being what they are, our operation costs will come down to make them feasible in the long-run.”Even before the current fuel price hike, 40% of Sajha Yatayat’s operational cost was fuel, spare parts and maintenance. With the diesel price hike, operating costs will have gone up to 50%, and the additional benefit is that battery-powered vehicles have lower maintenance cost.      <img width="1079" height="1119" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721d029c7e80680e0bd4c3jpeg.jpg" alt="">Besides the 40 Chinese electric buses, Sajha is also negotiating with an Indian company for four smaller buses to be operated within Lalitpur, with more buses to be added later.       Later, Sajha will also expand to add 12m electric buses for inter-province long-distance connections. Earlier, the private Sundar Yatayat (pictured) had also brought in four electric buses which it is using on its Ring Road routes, and Guna Airlines uses a fleet of electric ramp buses at Kathmandu’s domestic airport.Nepal imported nearly 2,000 electric vehicles in the last fiscal year, with 800 being imported through Rasuwa border in just this year from China. The switch to private electric vehicles is a direct result of the government’s policy to reduce petroleum consumption, but electric bus prices are still high because of taxes and retailer margins are still high.Nepal’s plan is to electrify 25% of private cars and 20% of buses by 2025, but while private electric SUVs get a tax rebate and diesel buses that are subsidised, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2TlinPRZGnwOkQHeoCE13l">electric buses cost five times more</a> because of high customs duty and other taxes. <img width="517" height="540" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721d049c7e80680e0bd4c4jpeg.jpg" alt="">Nepal’s installed generation capacity from hydropower plants increased by over 700MW in the past year, taking total generation to 2,150MW. However, most of these are from run-of-the river plants which means generation falls in dry months, and there is a surplus during the monsoon. Currently, Nepal is importing up to 400MW from India because of the domestic shortfall, but can export to India during the rainy season.At the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1JwQGIXUDq1U1I9u7zcZeb">COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow</a> last year, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba committed that Nepal would be on a path of “cumulatively net zero carbon’ from 2022 and by carbon negative after that by reducing fossil fuel consumption and increasing forest cover to 45% by 2030.   <img width="3242" height="1773" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721d069c7e80680e0bd4c5jpeg.jpg" alt="">Nepal spent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-chance-to-green-its-budget/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-chance-to-green-its-budget/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0P0L83rnW_hRhFKyWH2rh_">Rs217 billion last fiscal year</a> in importing petroleum, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2z387Ff-kqIN6_dq2k1XsE">Rs180 billion just in the past six months</a>. With the global price hike of crude oil this amount is expected to be much higher in the current fiscal year. Petroleum products make up <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2M_RQvCJDmvWo1x6_GCmge">13% of Nepal’s total imports.</a>Petrol and diesel prices at the filling stations have been hiked four times in the past six months, and the cost of petrol is now Rs160/l – nearly double what it was last year. In fact, the government is planning to announce a five day work-week to reduce petroleum use by 20%.    <img width="881" height="537" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721d099c7e80680e0bd4c6jpeg.jpg" alt="">The state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) says it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2M_RQvCJDmvWo1x6_GCmge">loses Rs16 for every litre of petrol</a> and Rs12 for diesel it sells, raking up losses of Rs5 billion every month, which means further price hikes are a certainty. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sky-high-fuel-price-hits-nepals-tourism-airlines/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sky-high-fuel-price-hits-nepals-tourism-airlines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1650088883049000&amp;usg=AOvVaw16AqXJhNWrbZmVnALocFGq">NOC says it has run out of cash</a> to pay for future fuel imports from India.Although the sight of electric buses driving past hydroelectric and solar plants on their way from the Chinese border to Kathmandu was a welcome sight, the poor condition of the Arniko Highway was also an indication of the dilapidated state of Nepal’s transport infrastructure. In fact, the buses cannot negotiate the bumpy road on their own and have to be loaded onto the backs of flatbed trucks to be ferried to Kathmandu.The highway as well as the Kodari checkpoint between Nepal and China has remained closed after damage in the 2015 earthquake. Built in 1996, the Upper Bhote Kosi power plant was also hit by twin disasters of the earthquake and a glacial lake outburst flood in 2015, and resumed operation only three years ago after repairs.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/">Nepal goes electric, but conditions apply</a>, Ramesh Kumar

Nepal’s journey to electric public transport

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

sajha-bus

Sajha starts e-bus service in Kathmandu

Nepal’s journey to electric public transport

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138