<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccff9c7e80680e08bc51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Nepal took delivery of one million doses of Covishield vaccine ordered from the Serum Institute of India, on Sunday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Amidst the pandemic, Covid-19 vaccines have become a means for countries to exert influence over others. This has seen global powers flex their manufacturing prowess to reap geopolitical gains.As a landlocked country perched between China and India, the world’s two most populous countries and the largest global vaccine manufacturers, Nepal has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMX8c41M-XBr18zmXA9q450CrOjw">benefited from them. </a>Attempts by both Beijing and Delhi to distribute vaccines to Nepal signify the Himalayan state’s growing strategic value to both.India made the first move. In January, New Delhi <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvA5Q2Hq3IlOSW_YRiVLKoHZsimg">pledged to inoculate</a> Nepal’s frontline workers before any other country, and promptly dispatched one million doses of the Covishield vaccine manufactured by its <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.seruminstitute.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFeCK6lMJ0mEMwnhe5ZlUkRhkq83g">Serum Institute of India.</a>“Nepal is getting the vaccines within a week after India rolled out its vaccination drive, which signifies the friendship between India and Nepal and the importance India attaches to Nepal,” India’s ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra said, as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFGat2xjZpiPoxjEjZIquz-r4fqSw">first shipment of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine arrived at Kathmandu airport.</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd029c7e80680e08bc52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2839" height="2092"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such rosy optics masked recent complications in relations between the two neighbours. India’s ties with Nepal have been strained in recent years by the Kalapani border <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHENUQx_suOCbeya69_G1M1t9-8ZQ">dispute</a>. In May 2020, India’s Defence Ministry opened a new 80 km-long road in the Himalaya to the Chinese border that passed through territory claimed by Nepal. In response, Kathmandu changed its own official map, and set up new border posts.There had been concerns in New Delhi that Nepal has become increasingly ‘Sinified’, especially since its six-month blockade of the border in 2015. China was the architect of the alliance of Nepal’s Maoist and UML parties, which swept the 2017 elections and united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).Since 2018, Prime Minister K P Oli has signed off on numerous projects that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. The NCP and the Chinese Communist Party forged fraternal ties, with various workshops on ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ held in Kathmandu.After infighting among members of the Maoist coalition, Oli was forced to dissolve Parliament in December, presenting an opportunity for New Delhi to jostle for influence. While India will need to present more robust measures of support to Nepal than vaccines to cement its influence, India has a head start in the case of vaccine diplomacy.Evidently, Beijing has grown increasingly frustrated with the NCP leadership, and has voiced its displeasure by not opening its two border checkpoints, citing the pandemic. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmlmUxbFQO-w3a9zFkseqhfdPvxg">China’s Ambassador in Nepal Hou Yanqi</a> failed after repeated attempts to get the NCP leadership to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">patch up their differences</a>, Beijing sent its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">Army Chief Wei Wengfe</a> to Kathmandu in November just after India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLEaB38PgM99Dyx6gKRNEM6v1gSg">Chief of Army Staff M M Navarane</a> himself paid a visit to Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd069c7e80680e08bc53jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Not to be outdone in vaccine geopolitics, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali on 5 February, and <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGy-kYDmw6qDY0hOU4alm8LtlGWKw">pledged </a>500,000 doses of its Sinopharm vaccine. After a long delay, the Chinese vaccine finally got approval from Nepal’s Department of Drug Administration last week for emergency use.The delay in the approval process for the Sinopharm vaccine, which has not been approved by the WHO yet, appears to have miffed Beijing. The Indian media played up supposed pressure by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu to fast-track the approval process.Beyond the Himalaya, vaccine geopolitics is playing out elsewhere in South Asia. Attempts by China to distribute vaccines to Bangladesh were thwarted after the government there refused to contribute to the development costs of the Sinopharm vaccine.After India donated two million doses of Covishield to Bangladesh, Dhaka struck a deal to <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9b3i3OdybiKzX5Vufug5v02OGGw">purchase 30 million</a> doses of the vaccine for the country, snubbing Beijing. Chinese state media accused <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoix9h2tMalRVwO7rZWBx2DMco2w">Delhi of meddling</a> with its  attempt to distribute vaccines in Bangladesh.China’s closest ally in the region, Pakistan, became the first country to receive donated shipments of China’s Sinopharm vaccine, with Beijing <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfbpJhrMSFm9ugwe0zMnssbFpZbw">pledging to send over</a> 1.2 million doses to Islamabad.Along with Nepal and Bangladesh, New Delhi also gifted Covishield to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Seychelles, Mauritius and Burma as part of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.Nepal also took delivery of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOkIKOTq_lBwSlRkb9icdh4NEBhA">1 million more Covishield vaccines</a> that it ordered from the Serum Institute of India on Sunday, and another 2.2 million doses purchased by Britain under the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCmy6JvaMqdagVd7fzazTMUZePEA">WHO’s GAVI-COVAX initiative</a> are arriving next week.China has made strategic gains in the region in recent years to India’s detriment. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has poured investment into Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and the Maldives. Funded by Chinese money, massive ports, highways and other infrastructure projects have been built. With its muddled bureaucracy and weaker spending power, Delhi had not been able to keep up with Beijing’s soft power expansion.Now, India is using vaccines as the vanguard of its response. The Serum Institute has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0Xe33J3K0BozaLao6fO5i6bcnag">been producing</a> vaccine supplies at a much faster rate than the Indian government’s inoculation program can distribute them, making it easy for Delhi to send them abroad without suffering political backlash at home.This has given India a new edge for its soft power ambitions in the South Asian and Indian Ocean regions. Given that most of the developing world will not be vaccinated <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRvEEUYnAtYJl-4suTFC2JfUJFhQ">until 2023</a>, demand for vaccines will only rise. While China’s manufacturing prowess means that it is likely to keep up with demand, regional resistance to its largely un-trialed vaccines will complicate efforts to gain approval by government agencies.What happens in Nepal over the coming months will be a microcosm of regional vaccine geopolitics. The erosion of Chinese influence with its inability to keep the NCP together, gives an opening for New Delhi to reassert itself in Kathmandu.While China may have promised Nepal its continued support to help <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVHDy7dKQmiyzWk-iPKWg82NOhBw">overcome the pandemic</a>, its assistance may not be needed or welcomed if India already fulfils this role.

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South Asia’s vaccine geopolitics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2bb9c7e80680e083ec6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1656" height="750"/><figcaption>Vaccine trial of a Covid-19 vaccine at Oxford University’s Jenner Institute. Photo: UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD/JOHN CAIRNS</figcaption></figure>Many Nepalis who had felt their government had not done enough <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘vaccine diplomacy’</a> to for Covid-19 immunisation could have been assured by visiting Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s remarks on Thursday that India would give preference to Nepal when trials are over.Indeed, it may be more practical and cheaper for Nepal to rely on vaccine supplies from research centres in India and China than multinationals, whose supplies of new vaccines are ‘booked’ by the world’s richest countries into next year.Handing over 2,000 vials of the broad-spectrum antiviral drug, Remdesivir, to Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali, Shringla said: "We will make the vaccine accessible and affordable, and it goes without saying that first priority will be for our closest neighbours like Nepal. We will put our health ministers and regulators in touch when this vaccine enters the market, Nepal will have the fullest benefit."<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2be9c7e80680e083ec7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This week, the vaccine made by Oxford University in collaboration with the British-Swedish firm AstraZeneca was said to have 60-90% efficacy against Covid-19. The Oxford Vaccine has relevance for Nepal because the <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Serum Institute of India had</a> started manufacturing millions of doses of this vaccine long before the preliminary results of the trial came in.The Serum Institute of India is the world’s largest vaccine producer and already well-known in Nepal, especially for its anti-rabies vaccine that is commonly used here. The company had so much faith in the Oxford Vaccine, and it felt there would be such a rush later on, that it just went ahead and started manufacturing the vaccine, glass vials and stainless steel vats.Sure enough, preliminary results of the Oxford Vaccine now show that this gambit may have paid off for all concerned, including the people in India and its neighbouring countries.Adar Poonawallah, CEO of the Serum Institute of India has clearly made it his mission to manufacture the Covid-19 vaccine for the world’s poor. None other than Bill Gates is so impressed with his dedication that his foundation has committed millions of dollars to help with the project.Even as global Big Pharma roll out new vaccines, the difficult part will be to find ways to pay for the poorest people in the world’s poor countries to be immunised against Covid-19. Collaborative efforts like the one by the Serum Institute of India and COVAX appear to be the way to go.There is another interesting connection between the Oxford Vaccine and Nepal. The Chief Investigator of the Oxford Vaccine study, Prof Andrew Pollard has a long history of working in Nepal, especially in the prevention of typhoid fever. In December 2019, a paper on the milestone typhoid conjugate vaccine trial was published in <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1905047" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The New England Journal of Medicine</a> by doctors at Patan Hospital in collaboration with Pollard and colleagues. This breakthrough may well lead to policy changes around the world where typhoid is still rampant.The unusual thing about the Oxford Vaccine is that, for some reason, the scientists administered only a half-dose of the vaccine on one group followed by the full second dose, as opposed to administering two full doses. Amazingly, the group that got the half dose followed by the full dose had a 90% vaccine efficacy compared to the group that was administered the full two doses, which registered only a 60% efficacy.It will be intriguing to see if the half dosage was planned, or was an oversight that leads to this welcome finding. The history of medical breakthroughs abounds in such serendipitous discoveries.The Oxford Vaccine announcement was preceded by American companies Pfizer and Moderna unveiling the breathtaking efficacy (&gt;90%) of their own Covid-19 vaccines. However, besides the $60 cost per dose, the cold chain maintenance of -70oC for Pfizer’s vaccine would be impossible for countries like Nepal.The Oxford Vaccine, on the other hand, does not require such extreme cold chain maintenance. The regular vaccine cold chain 2-8oC will suffice. More importantly, the cost is thought to be substantially less.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2c19c7e80680e083ec8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1214" height="690"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2c49c7e80680e083ec9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1188" height="754">It is clear that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for Nepal, just the discovery of an efficacious vaccine will not be enough</a>. We must be able to have access to it, and also afford it. In addition, whether the vaccine prevents transmission or not is also going to be important -- together with whether or not it prevents severe illness.Their important considerations are all pending, but for now, we need to continue to wear masks, wash hands, and maintain social distancing. We may have to continue that practice even after the vaccination campaigns start.Because the Oxford Vaccine will be distributed by governments (not Oxford University) the Nepal government will need to liaise with the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Health Organization-initiated COVAX</a>, which is the only global inter-governmental initiative working with manufacturers to ensure Covid-19 vaccines are available worldwide to both the rich and the poor.Most industrialised countries have already started placing orders for vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, so there is every likelihood that COVAX will concentrate on ensuring vaccine supply to less-developed countries.Along with the Indian vaccines, results of the Chinese vaccine against Covid-19, which may well be just as effective and affordable, will probably be announced soon.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal government needs to coordinate closely</a> with groups like COVAX and keep its attention focused on obtaining the vaccine for Nepalis of all socio-economic strata.With Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s assurance this week in Kathmandu, it may also be useful to connect directly with the Serum Institute of India, which can play an instrumental role in supplying this all-important vaccine against Covid-19.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Basnyat</a> is a clinical researcher at Patan Academy of Health Sciences and contributes this <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">health column</a>, Dhanvantari, for Nepali Times.

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Glimmers of hope for Nepal on vaccine

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

serum-institute-of-india

South Asia’s vaccine geopolitics

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Nukes in the neighbourhood

Divine chariot

Balochistan to Kashmir

Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village