In 1966, the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-12-2019-who-commemorates-the-40th-anniversary-of-smallpox-eradication" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Health Organization (WHO)</a> launched a worldwide campaign to eradicate smallpox. The aim was ‘zeropox’ -- not just control of the disease, but its complete elimination.After an aggressive campaign run by Nepal's autocratic government, the country saw its last case ever in 1975. The program should be celebrated. But what should also not be forgotten is that it sometimes resorted to heavy handed methods. Balancing public safety and individual rights was not easy.Historically, smallpox had been one of the world's biggest and most terrifying killers. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In South Asia, the disease attacked young adults and children</a>, those born since the previous epidemic, leaving many disfigured or blind. In Nepal in the 19th  century, smallpox left few communities unscathed, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">even killed a king</a>.In 1966, smallpox still plagued 31 countries, annually infecting 10-15 million people and killing 2 million. Two areas caused the most concern: the horn of Africa and South Asia, including Nepal.Part I: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Big story of smallpox in Nepal</a>Part II: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The smallpox virus in British India</a>Part III: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smallpox, politics and power in Kathmandu</a>Part V: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/viruses-past-present-and-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Viruses past, present and future</a>		
							<figure><img width="1282" height="1386" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861ea09c7e80680e0ccdd8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Smallpox vaccination statue outside the World Health Organization headquarter entrance in Geneva.</figcaption></figure>Nepal, a WHO official wrote in the early 1960s, ‘must be considered as one of the areas most highly endemic for smallpox in South East Asia’. In 1958, a wave of smallpox hit Kathmandu. A 1965 survey revealed that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">16% of the Valley's total population had struggled with the virus at some point in their lives</a>. Those were the ones the disease hadn't killed.Each year a few imported cases appeared in the western hills. Don Messerschmidt describes a late 1963 outbreak along the hulakibato in Lamjung, but the main problem areas were the Kathmandu Valley and the Tarai, particularly the eastern plains because of heavy cross-border movement.<a href="https://www.who.int/features/2010/smallpox/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WHO and the Nepal government launched a pilot program</a> in 1962 in Kathmandu Valley using new freeze dried vaccine, an improved version of the one Edward Jenner had devised in the 1790s, but got disappointing results.After two and a half years, only 30% of Valley residents were protected. WHO blamed ‘administrative problems and the religious and mundane objections of some sections of the population to vaccination’.In 1966, the program expanded countrywide, with new commitment and revised procedures, including better record keeping to prevent double counting. In 1971 the program started month-long mass vaccination campaigns. Each year for four straight years, several thousand temporary staff vaccinated 6 million Nepalis. Between 1967 and 1975, 39 million Nepalis got vaccinated or re-vaccinated.Another new strategy proved a game changer: aggressive surveillance and containment. Previously, officials had prioritised vaccinations. They had not traced and mapped infections, and thus did not know how many people had the virus and where. In 1971, a WHO official later wrote, ‘vigorous surveillance became the rule’.Surveillance meant routine house-to-house searches. Instead of waiting for cases to be reported, program workers went looking for them. Containment meant vaccinating and revaccinating the entire population near a newly discovered case. This was erring on the safe side by casting a broad net. The program also intensified tracing, detecting infection origins in a remarkable 95% of cases.The aggressive surveillance and containment methods delivered results. ‘It appeared that transmission had been interrupted,’ a WHO official noted later. Nepal had devised ‘a new and surprisingly effective tactic’.But then came a setback: ‘a tidal wave’ of new cases with nearly 2,000 new infections in 240 separate outbreaks. Three of every four of these cases were imports from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in India where smallpox proved particularly recalcitrant. Of Nepal's 12 million population at the time, 90% lived within 100km of these Indian states.The program responded with more vaccination campaigns, surveillance, and containment, making steady progress. To address outbreaks in Morang the Nepal smallpox program in 1975 initiated a ‘watchdog’ system, a tactic recently devised in India. Staff were posted at the houses of infected people to ensure that they did not leave and that no unvaccinated person entered. Cash rewards were given to citizens and staff reporting new cases.In April 1975, Nepal saw its last case. A disease that had plagued Nepalis for centuries was gone. Looking back, WHO officials saw the surveillance and containment program as the key.‘The shift in strategy in 1971, laying great emphasis on surveillance-containment, was largely responsible for the success of the Smallpox Eradication Programme in Nepal,’ wrote the program's director in a 1977 wrap up report. ‘It is possible that transmission would have been interrupted earlier if the watchguard system had been adopted during 1974.’In many ways Nepal's eradication of smallpox was a heroic victory. The global smallpox program's director applauded Nepal's ‘remarkable accomplishments’. This narrative is not inaccurate but it is not the whole story.To begin with, smallpox eradication owed a great deal to biology. Compared to other diseases, smallpox was simply easier to eradicate. It was easy to see and diagnose (no asymptomatic infections) and did not re-infect people once gone. The disease's painful symptoms prevented movement, slowing transmission. Moreover, the vaccine was easy to administer and extremely effective. There was no virus reservoir among animals re-injecting the disease into human society again and again.Diseases like malaria and polio had far more natural advantages, and have proven much harder to eradicate globally.‘Without the particular characteristics of smallpox and the smallpox vaccine,’ historian Randall Packard has observed, ‘the disease would have been much more difficult to conquer, and the campaign would, in all likelihood, have failed. As it was, it only succeeded by the thinnest of margins.’One particular challenge was how to handle Nepalis who resisted vaccination. In the eastern Tarai, many people, particularly indigenous groups, held what a WHO report described as 'religious objections to vaccination’.WHO said this area became 'the scene of many problems of containment’. In Kathmandu, some Newar groups used to 'strongly object' to vaccination. In Kailali, some Tharus 'resisted vaccination for religious reasons'.Historian Susan Heydon notes that program workers often unjustifiably dismissed the concerns of Nepalis who resisted vaccination. Those who hesitated, she notes, were blamed as superstitious, derided as ‘backward and uneducated’.Instead, she faults the WHO program itself for not doing enough to educate the general population about the benefits of vaccination. She also notes that the program often administered vaccinations during hours next to impossible for ordinary working people.Eradication program workers also occasionally used unnecessary coercion. Coerced vaccinations were not common worldwide or in South Asia. But as historian Packard notes, there was a ‘tendency for aid workers to view themselves as somehow empowered to do whatever it takes to fulfill their mission, and to disregard local customs and laws’. In India and Bangladesh, historian Paul Greenough discovered that 'heavy-handed methods were sometimes relied upon'. On one occasion in Bihar in 1975, for example, health officials accompanied by police arrived at a tribal person's house by jeep at midnight, broke down the door, held down family members, and forcibly vaccinated them. Mandatory vaccinations and re-vaccinations as part of broad containment efforts sometimes sparked 'chaos' in villages.'Encounters with government vaccinators,' Greenough observes, were 'never about immunisation alone.' Religious, caste, and gender dynamics shaped interactions, as did ill will from previous health campaigns.One American health worker in India later recalled how a sense of unbridled self-righteousness led him to mistreat people. 'One of the rules was that everybody gets vaccinated. I was awful in my conviction of purity of purpose -- in breaking down doors and vaccinating crying women, etc.' To a large degree, the ends seemed to justify the means.Official reports, Greenough writes, often dismissed resistance and underreported coercion. He wishes there had been much more training for healthworkers and broader,more careful education for the public.In Nepal, one foreign smallpox fieldworker described how health workers sometimes had to search for Nepalis hiding from them in fear:‘... a good natured room to room search of houses with flashlights, accompanied by the village leader, would detect adults and children hiding under beds, in chests, large wicker baskets, and even in large clay storage vessels. However, the search was done as a game of hide and seek, with laughter after people were found and vaccinated, such as in one particular case where lifting the cover of a large wicker basket revealed two children hiding inside.’This may have been seemed like a game to health workers, but probably not to those Nepali men, women, and children with unknown government strangers searching for them. They seemed terrified.In the name of containing smallpox, a global health problem and an old scourge in Nepal, in the late 1960s and 1970s Nepal's government had tremendous authority to monitor and search Nepal's population. Maintaining public safety certainly justifies strong action, but the unnecessary infringement of individual rights and liberties must also be avoided as well.  This is the third in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEp4BFSGiWvId09CsLCgnF31j8F-w">series of articles</a> about the history of disease in Nepal. The fifth installment will look at what Nepal can learn from past epidemics in dealing with this one.  <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGtSUyejPwwFFhYdaZjZohWFJUIQw">Tom Robertson</a>, PhD, is researching the environmental history of Kathmandu Valley.

Tom Robertson

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How Nepal eradicated the smallpox virus

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934889c7e80680e03dfffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="700"/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>Polio eradication is one of the most ambitious public health initiatives undertaken in human history. Launched in 1988 by the World Health Organization (WHO) the campaign aimed to rid the world of the virus by 2000. But 30 years on and $15 billion later, even though polio cases worldwide have been reduced by 99%, there are still isolated pockets of the disease. And unless every last case is removed, there will always a chance that the infection will come back.Encouraged by the eradication of small pox, WHO launched the campaign in 1988. The organisation debated the wisdom of spending so much time and money to exterminate a disease when there were many other more pressing health concerns like <a href="http://malaria https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-mosquito-that-changed-nepals-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malaria</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/ or diarrhoea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TB</a> or diarrhoea that kill many more people.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQd_-6W_9Gg&amp;feature=youtu.beThomas Abraham, a journalist who taught health reporting at the University of Hong Kong, has tried to answer this and other questions in his new book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Polio-Odyssey-Eradication-Thomas-Abraham/dp/1849049564" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polio: The Odyssey of Eradication</a>. He says polio was held hostage by geopolitics, and traces the reason why countries opted for a weak vaccine against a strong virus. The author concludes that future global campaigns that zero in on just one disease must be weighed against the necessity of upgrading public health, especially in poorer countries.In Nepal, indigenous <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Bouncing-back-higher-wheelchair-basketball,3802" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polio</a> was eliminated in 2000 after the country responded to WHO’s eradication goal by adding polio to its successful campaign of vaccination against other diseases. However, there were still polio cases in Nepal brought over the border from India. The last case of polio was detected in Rautahat district in 2010, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/03/28/polio-free-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal was finally declared polio free</a> four years later.In response to a query from Nepali Times this week, however, Abraham said Nepal is not out of the woods yet. “If polio re-emerges in India, particularly UP and Bihar, this would be a major challenge to Nepal,” he said. “Also, if levels of routine childhood immunisation fall in Nepal there is a danger of outbreaks of vaccine derived polio, as we are seeing in a number of countries.”Even though polio has been largely removed, there are still cases in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria where vaccination campaigns have been thwarted by religious extremists. Ironically, enmity between India and Pakistan and the heavily guarded border between the two countries has minimised the risk of polio spreading via India to Nepal.Polio derived from oral vaccines has emerged as a new threat to the eradication campaign. By 2016, WHO deployed a combination of Inactivated Polio Virus (Salk vaccine) and bivalent oral vaccine to prevent further outbreaks.“Routine immunisation levels need to remain high in order to maintain Nepal’s polio-free status. Luckily, we have a strong disease surveillance system to detect any new polio cases,” said Jhalak Sharma Gautam of the Department of Health Services.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369348b9c7e80680e03e000jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="869"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16116#.W_aWJTgzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polio</a> is one of the oldest diseases to afflict humans, but it wasn’t until the beginning of 20thcentury that there were outbreaks in Europe, North America and Australia. US President Franklin D Roosevelt was paralysed by poliomyelitis, and because of this the US threw considerable political influence and funds to back polio vaccine research.The first was the Salk vaccine that used inactivated poliovirus, and protected individuals injected with right dose, but it did not stop the transfer of the disease. The Sabin vaccine in 1961 employed a weakened poliovirus to be administered orally. It was cheaper and easier to use and protected individuals from paralysis as well as stopped polio transmission, which eventually led to it being chosen as a tool of eradication.Despite its success, the Global Polio Eradication campaign has been criticised for its huge cost and for widening the gap between local health needs and global health programs. In his book, Abraham puts his experience as a foreign correspondent to good use by visiting the frontlines of the battle against polio in Pakistan, India and Nigeria. He writes about the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/health/polio-pakistan-killing.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">assassinations of polio vaccinators in Pakistan</a> and Afghanistan by the Taliban.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369348e9c7e80680e03e001jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="441">A considerable portion of the book deals with a long-standing debate about whether targeting a single disease for eradication should take precedence over strengthening national health systems. This resonates with WHO’s own reluctance to endorse polio eradication for a long time in favour of a strong primary health care system.This book is a recommended read for public health professionals, but it has lessons for anyone who wants to better understand the inner workings of health systems, donor agency priorities, and what goes on behind the scenes in Geneva.Abraham is neither an epidemiologist nor a medical practitioner, he is a journalist with over 25 years of experience covering conflict, politics and health. Maybe that is why the book reads more like a thriller with an engaging real-life account of what goes right (and what can go wrong) in the fight against a disease-causing pathogen.Read also:<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Bouncing-back-higher-wheelchair-basketball,3802" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bouncing back</a>, Shreejana Shrestha<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16116#.W_aWJTgzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Laxmi dreams of flying</a>, Rupa Joshi

Sonia Awale

Polio hunt

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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