In 1966, the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-12-2019-who-commemorates-the-40th-anniversary-of-smallpox-eradication" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Health Organization (WHO)</a> launched a worldwide campaign to eradicate smallpox. The aim was ‘zeropox’ -- not just control of the disease, but its complete elimination.After an aggressive campaign run by Nepal's autocratic government, the country saw its last case ever in 1975. The program should be celebrated. But what should also not be forgotten is that it sometimes resorted to heavy handed methods. Balancing public safety and individual rights was not easy.Historically, smallpox had been one of the world's biggest and most terrifying killers. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In South Asia, the disease attacked young adults and children</a>, those born since the previous epidemic, leaving many disfigured or blind. In Nepal in the 19th  century, smallpox left few communities unscathed, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">even killed a king</a>.In 1966, smallpox still plagued 31 countries, annually infecting 10-15 million people and killing 2 million. Two areas caused the most concern: the horn of Africa and South Asia, including Nepal.Part I: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Big story of smallpox in Nepal</a>Part II: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The smallpox virus in British India</a>Part III: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smallpox, politics and power in Kathmandu</a>Part V: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/viruses-past-present-and-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Viruses past, present and future</a>		
							<figure><img width="1282" height="1386" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861ea09c7e80680e0ccdd8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Smallpox vaccination statue outside the World Health Organization headquarter entrance in Geneva.</figcaption></figure>Nepal, a WHO official wrote in the early 1960s, ‘must be considered as one of the areas most highly endemic for smallpox in South East Asia’. In 1958, a wave of smallpox hit Kathmandu. A 1965 survey revealed that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">16% of the Valley's total population had struggled with the virus at some point in their lives</a>. Those were the ones the disease hadn't killed.Each year a few imported cases appeared in the western hills. Don Messerschmidt describes a late 1963 outbreak along the hulakibato in Lamjung, but the main problem areas were the Kathmandu Valley and the Tarai, particularly the eastern plains because of heavy cross-border movement.<a href="https://www.who.int/features/2010/smallpox/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WHO and the Nepal government launched a pilot program</a> in 1962 in Kathmandu Valley using new freeze dried vaccine, an improved version of the one Edward Jenner had devised in the 1790s, but got disappointing results.After two and a half years, only 30% of Valley residents were protected. WHO blamed ‘administrative problems and the religious and mundane objections of some sections of the population to vaccination’.In 1966, the program expanded countrywide, with new commitment and revised procedures, including better record keeping to prevent double counting. In 1971 the program started month-long mass vaccination campaigns. Each year for four straight years, several thousand temporary staff vaccinated 6 million Nepalis. Between 1967 and 1975, 39 million Nepalis got vaccinated or re-vaccinated.Another new strategy proved a game changer: aggressive surveillance and containment. Previously, officials had prioritised vaccinations. They had not traced and mapped infections, and thus did not know how many people had the virus and where. In 1971, a WHO official later wrote, ‘vigorous surveillance became the rule’.Surveillance meant routine house-to-house searches. Instead of waiting for cases to be reported, program workers went looking for them. Containment meant vaccinating and revaccinating the entire population near a newly discovered case. This was erring on the safe side by casting a broad net. The program also intensified tracing, detecting infection origins in a remarkable 95% of cases.The aggressive surveillance and containment methods delivered results. ‘It appeared that transmission had been interrupted,’ a WHO official noted later. Nepal had devised ‘a new and surprisingly effective tactic’.But then came a setback: ‘a tidal wave’ of new cases with nearly 2,000 new infections in 240 separate outbreaks. Three of every four of these cases were imports from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in India where smallpox proved particularly recalcitrant. Of Nepal's 12 million population at the time, 90% lived within 100km of these Indian states.The program responded with more vaccination campaigns, surveillance, and containment, making steady progress. To address outbreaks in Morang the Nepal smallpox program in 1975 initiated a ‘watchdog’ system, a tactic recently devised in India. Staff were posted at the houses of infected people to ensure that they did not leave and that no unvaccinated person entered. Cash rewards were given to citizens and staff reporting new cases.In April 1975, Nepal saw its last case. A disease that had plagued Nepalis for centuries was gone. Looking back, WHO officials saw the surveillance and containment program as the key.‘The shift in strategy in 1971, laying great emphasis on surveillance-containment, was largely responsible for the success of the Smallpox Eradication Programme in Nepal,’ wrote the program's director in a 1977 wrap up report. ‘It is possible that transmission would have been interrupted earlier if the watchguard system had been adopted during 1974.’In many ways Nepal's eradication of smallpox was a heroic victory. The global smallpox program's director applauded Nepal's ‘remarkable accomplishments’. This narrative is not inaccurate but it is not the whole story.To begin with, smallpox eradication owed a great deal to biology. Compared to other diseases, smallpox was simply easier to eradicate. It was easy to see and diagnose (no asymptomatic infections) and did not re-infect people once gone. The disease's painful symptoms prevented movement, slowing transmission. Moreover, the vaccine was easy to administer and extremely effective. There was no virus reservoir among animals re-injecting the disease into human society again and again.Diseases like malaria and polio had far more natural advantages, and have proven much harder to eradicate globally.‘Without the particular characteristics of smallpox and the smallpox vaccine,’ historian Randall Packard has observed, ‘the disease would have been much more difficult to conquer, and the campaign would, in all likelihood, have failed. As it was, it only succeeded by the thinnest of margins.’One particular challenge was how to handle Nepalis who resisted vaccination. In the eastern Tarai, many people, particularly indigenous groups, held what a WHO report described as 'religious objections to vaccination’.WHO said this area became 'the scene of many problems of containment’. In Kathmandu, some Newar groups used to 'strongly object' to vaccination. In Kailali, some Tharus 'resisted vaccination for religious reasons'.Historian Susan Heydon notes that program workers often unjustifiably dismissed the concerns of Nepalis who resisted vaccination. Those who hesitated, she notes, were blamed as superstitious, derided as ‘backward and uneducated’.Instead, she faults the WHO program itself for not doing enough to educate the general population about the benefits of vaccination. She also notes that the program often administered vaccinations during hours next to impossible for ordinary working people.Eradication program workers also occasionally used unnecessary coercion. Coerced vaccinations were not common worldwide or in South Asia. But as historian Packard notes, there was a ‘tendency for aid workers to view themselves as somehow empowered to do whatever it takes to fulfill their mission, and to disregard local customs and laws’. In India and Bangladesh, historian Paul Greenough discovered that 'heavy-handed methods were sometimes relied upon'. On one occasion in Bihar in 1975, for example, health officials accompanied by police arrived at a tribal person's house by jeep at midnight, broke down the door, held down family members, and forcibly vaccinated them. Mandatory vaccinations and re-vaccinations as part of broad containment efforts sometimes sparked 'chaos' in villages.'Encounters with government vaccinators,' Greenough observes, were 'never about immunisation alone.' Religious, caste, and gender dynamics shaped interactions, as did ill will from previous health campaigns.One American health worker in India later recalled how a sense of unbridled self-righteousness led him to mistreat people. 'One of the rules was that everybody gets vaccinated. I was awful in my conviction of purity of purpose -- in breaking down doors and vaccinating crying women, etc.' To a large degree, the ends seemed to justify the means.Official reports, Greenough writes, often dismissed resistance and underreported coercion. He wishes there had been much more training for healthworkers and broader,more careful education for the public.In Nepal, one foreign smallpox fieldworker described how health workers sometimes had to search for Nepalis hiding from them in fear:‘... a good natured room to room search of houses with flashlights, accompanied by the village leader, would detect adults and children hiding under beds, in chests, large wicker baskets, and even in large clay storage vessels. However, the search was done as a game of hide and seek, with laughter after people were found and vaccinated, such as in one particular case where lifting the cover of a large wicker basket revealed two children hiding inside.’This may have been seemed like a game to health workers, but probably not to those Nepali men, women, and children with unknown government strangers searching for them. They seemed terrified.In the name of containing smallpox, a global health problem and an old scourge in Nepal, in the late 1960s and 1970s Nepal's government had tremendous authority to monitor and search Nepal's population. Maintaining public safety certainly justifies strong action, but the unnecessary infringement of individual rights and liberties must also be avoided as well.  This is the third in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEp4BFSGiWvId09CsLCgnF31j8F-w">series of articles</a> about the history of disease in Nepal. The fifth installment will look at what Nepal can learn from past epidemics in dealing with this one.  <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGtSUyejPwwFFhYdaZjZohWFJUIQw">Tom Robertson</a>, PhD, is researching the environmental history of Kathmandu Valley.

Tom Robertson

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How Nepal eradicated the smallpox virus

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934889c7e80680e03dfffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="700"/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>Polio eradication is one of the most ambitious public health initiatives undertaken in human history. Launched in 1988 by the World Health Organization (WHO) the campaign aimed to rid the world of the virus by 2000. But 30 years on and $15 billion later, even though polio cases worldwide have been reduced by 99%, there are still isolated pockets of the disease. And unless every last case is removed, there will always a chance that the infection will come back.Encouraged by the eradication of small pox, WHO launched the campaign in 1988. The organisation debated the wisdom of spending so much time and money to exterminate a disease when there were many other more pressing health concerns like <a href="http://malaria https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-mosquito-that-changed-nepals-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malaria</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/ or diarrhoea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TB</a> or diarrhoea that kill many more people.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQd_-6W_9Gg&amp;feature=youtu.beThomas Abraham, a journalist who taught health reporting at the University of Hong Kong, has tried to answer this and other questions in his new book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Polio-Odyssey-Eradication-Thomas-Abraham/dp/1849049564" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polio: The Odyssey of Eradication</a>. He says polio was held hostage by geopolitics, and traces the reason why countries opted for a weak vaccine against a strong virus. The author concludes that future global campaigns that zero in on just one disease must be weighed against the necessity of upgrading public health, especially in poorer countries.In Nepal, indigenous <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Bouncing-back-higher-wheelchair-basketball,3802" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polio</a> was eliminated in 2000 after the country responded to WHO’s eradication goal by adding polio to its successful campaign of vaccination against other diseases. However, there were still polio cases in Nepal brought over the border from India. The last case of polio was detected in Rautahat district in 2010, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/03/28/polio-free-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal was finally declared polio free</a> four years later.In response to a query from Nepali Times this week, however, Abraham said Nepal is not out of the woods yet. “If polio re-emerges in India, particularly UP and Bihar, this would be a major challenge to Nepal,” he said. “Also, if levels of routine childhood immunisation fall in Nepal there is a danger of outbreaks of vaccine derived polio, as we are seeing in a number of countries.”Even though polio has been largely removed, there are still cases in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria where vaccination campaigns have been thwarted by religious extremists. Ironically, enmity between India and Pakistan and the heavily guarded border between the two countries has minimised the risk of polio spreading via India to Nepal.Polio derived from oral vaccines has emerged as a new threat to the eradication campaign. By 2016, WHO deployed a combination of Inactivated Polio Virus (Salk vaccine) and bivalent oral vaccine to prevent further outbreaks.“Routine immunisation levels need to remain high in order to maintain Nepal’s polio-free status. Luckily, we have a strong disease surveillance system to detect any new polio cases,” said Jhalak Sharma Gautam of the Department of Health Services.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369348b9c7e80680e03e000jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="869"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16116#.W_aWJTgzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polio</a> is one of the oldest diseases to afflict humans, but it wasn’t until the beginning of 20thcentury that there were outbreaks in Europe, North America and Australia. US President Franklin D Roosevelt was paralysed by poliomyelitis, and because of this the US threw considerable political influence and funds to back polio vaccine research.The first was the Salk vaccine that used inactivated poliovirus, and protected individuals injected with right dose, but it did not stop the transfer of the disease. The Sabin vaccine in 1961 employed a weakened poliovirus to be administered orally. It was cheaper and easier to use and protected individuals from paralysis as well as stopped polio transmission, which eventually led to it being chosen as a tool of eradication.Despite its success, the Global Polio Eradication campaign has been criticised for its huge cost and for widening the gap between local health needs and global health programs. In his book, Abraham puts his experience as a foreign correspondent to good use by visiting the frontlines of the battle against polio in Pakistan, India and Nigeria. He writes about the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/health/polio-pakistan-killing.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">assassinations of polio vaccinators in Pakistan</a> and Afghanistan by the Taliban.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369348e9c7e80680e03e001jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="441">A considerable portion of the book deals with a long-standing debate about whether targeting a single disease for eradication should take precedence over strengthening national health systems. This resonates with WHO’s own reluctance to endorse polio eradication for a long time in favour of a strong primary health care system.This book is a recommended read for public health professionals, but it has lessons for anyone who wants to better understand the inner workings of health systems, donor agency priorities, and what goes on behind the scenes in Geneva.Abraham is neither an epidemiologist nor a medical practitioner, he is a journalist with over 25 years of experience covering conflict, politics and health. Maybe that is why the book reads more like a thriller with an engaging real-life account of what goes right (and what can go wrong) in the fight against a disease-causing pathogen.Read also:<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Bouncing-back-higher-wheelchair-basketball,3802" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bouncing back</a>, Shreejana Shrestha<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16116#.W_aWJTgzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Laxmi dreams of flying</a>, Rupa Joshi

Sonia Awale

Polio hunt

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Early on Monday morning, a bus from Pokhara to Kathmandu plunged off the highway in Dhading killing 19 passengers. Two weeks ago, another bus fell into the Tama Kosi in Manthali, killing 12. A few days before that a bus crash in Baitadi killed 13 people.&nbsp; In just the month before Nepal's election, more than 50 people have been killed in road traffic accidents. Most of these cannot be called 'accidents'. They are a direct result of poorly maintained highways and lack of enforcement of traffic discipline. Political parties in Nepal have rolled out their election manifestos, and voters are once again presented with a flood of promises. Page after page, these documents list megawatts and microcredit, highways and airports, jobs and investment. In these manifestos, growth is quantified, projects itemised, revenue forecast — and there are even threats to beat up contractors who do not finish their jobs. But when everything is declared a priority the stale promises are empty. The voter is left confused as to where the party’s loyalties really lie. Will any of these plans and pledges actually ever materialise and help Nepalis live longer, safer, healthier lives? The main job of any accountable government is to protect its citizens, not so much from foreign enemies but from domestic mismanagement. And this means the most basic test the new government should be made to pass is whether it can ensure basic well-being and protection for all its people. The problems of safety, health, and survival remain unresolved for most Nepalis, and are quietly eroding their lives. In the past year alone, the country’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">roads and highways claimed more than 2,300</a> lives. An estimated 41,000 Nepalis die each year directly because of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-invisible-is-more-dangerous">air pollution</a>, and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/air-pollution-killing-season-starts-early">lifespans are lessened by 3.4 years</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health">Non-communicable diseases</a> now account for well over half of total deaths in the country. And even where survival has improved, deprivation remains. Chronic malnutrition continues to haunt communities in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mass-migration-from-muktikot">Nepal’s western mountains</a> despite progress in maternal and child health.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  These are the lived realities of most Nepalis, and it is here that development can deliver its most immediate returns. A rising GDP, in and of itself, does not make roads safer, clean polluted air, or provide enough nutrition to children. Such outcomes demand intentional, granular policies that confront the specific, everyday problems shaping people’s lives.&nbsp; Macroeconomic growth, trade and investment are important, but these alone cannot guarantee improvements health and safety. The word ‘growth’, after all, is also synonymous with malignancy. Economic progress and human protection are correlated only when governance deliberately links them. Impact on life is the unit in which ordinary Nepalis calculate progress. What is needed, then, is a governing philosophy measurable in these same terms: a ‘life-first’ standard where every policy, budget, and reform can be understood and judged by its impact on protecting and extending human life. Such a ‘life-first’ approach would scrutinise three aspects of every policy. First, whether the policy prevents loss of life. A death is termed preventable if better, more coordinated response systems and regulations could have avoided it (vaccines, drugs, road safety, clean drinking water). A newly built six-lane highway <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">can be a death trap</a> due to poor design or lax enforcement of safety rules. If neonatal deaths continue in a district despite hospitals being present, or if malnutrition claims lives in predominantly agricultural regions, they too are failures. Preventable deaths also cluster where accountability is less direct. Just last year, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/suicides-a-pandemic-within-a-pandemic">Nepal recorded 6,866 suicides</a>, with nearly 20 lives lost every day, yet these deaths fail to prompt any serious examination of governance. The same holds for fatalities linked to domestic or communal violence, alcohol and substance misuse, or ‘natural’ disasters, which register as ‘tragedies without remedy’ rather than as outcomes policy can influence. But when avoidable loss of life recurs at scale, isolated incidents become patterns, and patterns reveal systemic neglect. Saving lives, however, is only the first step, and what matters just as much is the quality of years lived. Nepal’s life expectancy now stands at 71 years, yet many citizens spend years in avoidable disability, untreated chronic illness, or mental distress. A life- first government must ask not only whether people live, but whether they thrive. Are citizens able to pursue education, work, and family life without fear of preventable harm? Do communities have access to clean air and water, nutritious food, and basic healthcare? Can a teenager anywhere in Nepal imagine a future not foreclosed by premature marriage, or untreated depression?  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940" data-rendition-name="original" width="2529" height="1427" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  Thriving requires policies that prevent suffering and promote well-being in addition to ensuring survival.&nbsp; Finally, governance must consider graceful aging. Elderly Nepalis should not be left to navigate disease, poverty, or isolation alone. Social systems, healthcare, and community support must enable their continued participation and dignified well-being. Adopting this three-layered standard would gradually reorient how success of any new government is defined. Transportation would be judged by fatalities reduced on the roads. Electricity generation would be measured by whether households can switch from firewood dependence to smoke-free electric stoves.&nbsp; Increase in annual rice harvest must translate into better nutrition, reducing the prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes. Accountability must follow problems rather than stop at Singha Darbar. Only then will politicians and bureaucrats eventually recognise that their work converges on the same human endpoint. Critics will argue that economies are complex, trade-offs are inevitable, and that governance cannot be reduced to a single metric.But, as Acemoglu and Robinson show in their book <a href="https://ia801506.us.archive.org/27/items/WhyNationsFailTheOriginsODaronAcemoglu/Why-Nations-Fail_-The-Origins-o-Daron-Acemoglu.pdf">Why Nations Fail</a>, the key difference between prosperity and poverty lies in inclusive institutions that empower citizens and create broad incentives for well-being.&nbsp; Extractive institutions concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few while keeping the majority trapped in neglect. Nepal’s governance has remained a striking example of extraction. If lawmakers in the new Parliament continue to resist changes that would save and improve the lives of ordinary citizens, the same systemic rot will persist for generations to come. A life-first mentality can cut through this inertia by clarifying the moral centre of governance and reminding policymakers that behind every policy failure lies human cost. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-hunger">Every mother in Bajura</a> with a child going hungry at night, every farmer in the Madhes unable to afford medical care, and every family that has lost <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-kidneys-to-save-nepal">a migrant son to kidney failure</a> understands the true <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/dirty-dangerous-difficult-and-dehydrating">value of a life saved</a>. Life is the one metric that transcends ideology, ethnicity, and region. Centering governance on this single, focused metric, can shift an election from a contest of rhetoric to a contest of evidence. Which party ensured access to safe water and basic healthcare? Which made work at home and abroad safer and less exploitative. Which measurably extended healthy years of life for ordinary citizens? Health is wealth. By improving the healthy lifespan of citizens economic prosperity would follow naturally. A ‘life-first’ governance model would therefore compel Nepal to address the underlying structural failures across all sectors, rather than merely alleviating their symptoms. The GenZ protest that toppled the government last September was, at its core, a demand for accountability and a rejection of politics as usual. But as the country edges closer to the polls, that clarity has started to dissipate. Parties are now echoing the language of reform, but the public discourse remains dominated by promises that feel disconnected from Nepal’s most immediate and basic priorities. Every preventable death, every hungry child, and every neglected elder becomes a direct failure of governance and a moral debt the state must answer for. It is how we can make sure we keep the next government in check. The writers are Nepali GenZ students of biomedical engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

Nepal’s life or death election

Chronic winter drought and decades of unmanaged forest biomass have turned wildfires into a systemic risk for Nepal. We need to re-learn to convert fire fuel in forests into fertilizer for crops.&nbsp; On 11 January, a huge forest fire spread rapidly from China into the forests of Sindhupalchok, 40km northeast of Kathmandu. The newly-opened Tatopani border checkpoint was closed. Smoke from the fire spread across central Nepal, blocking the sun.&nbsp; The fire burnt itself out within a few days, but the border stayed closed for longer. Such wildfires were once rare in mid-winter, and traditionally peaked between March and May as temperatures rose ahead of pre-monsoon showers. What is unsettling is not just the early onset of the fires, but also their scale. This shift is not accidental, the pattern has been unfolding over years due to winter drought, weakening post-monsoon moisture, and the accumulation of dry forest biomass as Nepal’s forest area doubled in the past 30 years.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1055" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of Nepal with red dots signifying fires in February 2025.</figcaption> </figure>  Together, these factors have made forests tinder dry in spring, just waiting for a spark. Nepal has experienced winter drought in eight of the past ten years (this winter was an exception). Winter rain and snow at higher elevations play a decisive role in maintaining surface moisture, recharging shallow aquifers, and keeping forest floors damp enough to resist ignition. When winter rains fail, forests dry out months earlier than usual. Satellite-based assessments show a steep decline in surface moisture across the middle mountains of Nepal, particularly in areas with dense forest cover but limited undergrowth management. Springs that once flowed year-round are now seasonal.&nbsp; More than half of the springs in the mid-hills have either dried up or show significantly reduced discharge, a trend closely linked to declining soil moisture and disrupted recharge zones. Dry soil does not just threaten water security — it helps the vegetation ignite. FUEL WITHOUT FUNCTION For decades, Nepal’s forests have been accumulating dry leaf litter, fallen branches, shrubs, and deadwood. Historically, this biomass was not considered waste because rural households regularly collected leaf litter for livestock bedding, which was later composted and returned to farms as fertilizer.&nbsp; Forest floors were therefore relatively clean while the mulch fertilized farms. That relationship has steadily eroded due to outmigration, changes in livestock systems, restrictions on access to community forests, and the growing availability of chemical fertilisers.&nbsp; Community forests across the country today are thick with dry twigs, branches and leaves — a highly combustible carpet. When prolonged drought dries this biomass, even a small spark from a herder’s intentional fire, a cigarette, or lightning strike can trigger massive fires.&nbsp; Under such conditions, the question is no longer whether fires will occur, but how intense and widespread they will be. Forest fires are often framed as an environmental issue concerning trees and wildlife. In reality, their impact extends far beyond forest boundaries.&nbsp; Smoke travels faster and further than flames. Fine particulate matter, especially harmful PM2.5, spreads across countries. In recent fire seasons, air quality monitors in Kathmandu have recorded air quality levels several times higher than WHO guidelines. The smoke adds to Kathmandu’s own pollution and lingers for days.&nbsp; Flights are cancelled or delayed in cities like Pokhara, and poor visibility blocks mountain views affecting tourism. Health facilities report spikes in respiratory complaints, particularly among children and the elderly. Just as wildfires have multi-sectoral causes, the impact of forest fires go beyond forests. One critical dimension remains largely invisible: the soil. The fires cause silent damage beneath the ash, and the emergency does not end when the flames subside. Beneath the surface, soil suffers long-term damage. Organic matter burns away, beneficial microorganisms die. The soil structure weakens, reducing the land’s ability to absorb and retain water. The scorched earth is more prone to erosion, increasing the risk of floods and landslides once the rains return.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1717" height="2143" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Wildfire risk map based on the validated Random Forest model (a) Overall reclassified wildfire risk map of Nepal, (b) District level wildfire risk, and (c) Municipality wildfire risk map.</figcaption> </figure>  In many of Nepal’s agricultural areas, soil organic matter levels are already below 2% -- lower than what is needed for resilient and productive farming. Repeated fires push these levels even lower, undermining soil fertility and forcing farmers to rely more heavily on chemical fertilisers, unleashing a vicious cycle of higher costs and food insecurity.&nbsp; Climate breakdown is often cited as the primary culprit, and rightly so. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have intensified fire risk. But fires in Nepal are increasingly the result of human intervention.&nbsp; The response of all three levels of government remains too little, and too reactive. Each year, resources are mobilised to extinguish fires once they have already spread. Far less attention is paid to managing the fuel load within forest undergrowth that makes such fires inevitable.&nbsp; Meanwhile, forestry and agriculture policies are not coordinated, missing opportunities to address shared challenges. Forest fires are not natural disasters, but predictable outcomes of governance choices. National plans and climate pledges set an ambitious target of raising soil organic matter to 4%. The science behind this goal is solid. Higher organic matter improves water retention, stabilises yields, reduces fertiliser dependence, and enhances long-term food security. What remains unclear is the pathway.&nbsp; Where will the organic inputs come from? How will they be processed and applied safely at scale? Without practical answers, the 4% target risks remaining aspirational rather than achievable. Forest undergrowth can be turned into fuel and fertiliser. Biochar is produced by heating organic biomass in a low-oxygen environment, converting it into a stable form of carbon that can be added to soil.&nbsp; When properly produced and applied, it improves soil structure, enhances water and nutrient retention, supports microbial activity, and locks carbon into the ground for decades. In Nepal biochar addresses two interconnected problems: reducing the accumulation of combustible biomass in forests, lowering fire risk, while simultaneously rebuilding depleted soils. In doing so, it restores the broken link between forest management and agriculture.&nbsp; Done well, biochar is not merely an environmental intervention. It is an economic one, with potential to create local employment, reduce farmers’ input costs, and support climate-smart agriculture. But biochar propagation depends on improved governance. If promoted as isolated pilots or short-term projects, it will fail. What is needed is institutional clarity: standards for production and safety, quality control mechanisms, farmer extension services, and coordination across local, provincial, and federal levels.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Freshly prepared biochar under control tempature (350-600°C).</figcaption> </figure>  Community forest user groups could manage biomass collection. Local governments then support safe, decentralised production units. Agricultural extension services guide farmers on application, linked to soil testing and monitoring. Such an approach would reduce fire risk, improve soil health, and generate rural livelihoods.&nbsp; Poorly produced biochar or contaminated feedstock can harm soils and human health. Without training, standards, and oversight, good intentions can backfire. Nepal needs to move beyond fire-fighting to fire prevention and confront the structural causes that make them a growing risk. It is not just a technical choice – it is one that demands political will from newly-elected leaders after March. &nbsp;&nbsp; Ngamindra Dahal is a hydrometeorologist with the Nepal Water Conservation Foundation specialising on climate and water management issues.&nbsp;

RED ALERT: Get ready for the wildfire season

Party flags and banners wave from electric poles, houses and e-rickshaws are festooned with posters. Madhes Province is in the grip of election fever, and in a tour through four of its districts, there is the sense that any efforts by mainstream political parties at reforms have come too little too late. Among the banners, the sky blue of the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/new-vs-new-in-nepal"> RSP is more prominent </a>here this time, and the rallying cry across the country for new and improved leadership is echoed on the ground. “For the people around here, whatever these old leaders are saying has become just noise,” says a lassi shop operator in Janakpur, waving a dismissive hand at flags with the NC’s tree symbol across the street. In Janakpur, UML nominee Raghubir Mahaseth was barred from canvassing door-to-door. Campaign posters of the mainstream parties have been torn from walls and replaced with RSP posters.&nbsp; In Inarwari village of Rautahat in the Madhes heartland, local elected officials whose parties have been merged into the Nepali Communist Party hope to retain enough supporters this election. But not many residents say they would vote for its candidate. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_a793e3a19cbd536fde50708c4a41b8b0d39a4716c6973feddad889097b655641.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026022005024_a793e3a19cbd536fde50708c4a41b8b0d39a4716c6973feddad889097b655641" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> <figcaption>Photos: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>  A first-time voter in Sarlahi’s Haripur is home on a semester break from medical school in Kathmandu, and is waiting excitedly for 5 March. “You can’t really say out loud whom you’re voting for around here,” he says, as he mimes ringing a bell. “It is time for someone new to be in-charge." In the highway town of Bardibas, an elderly teashop owner says that all she hears are calls for घण्टी, the RSP’s bell symbol. “After all, bells are rung in the house of gods,” she says. “It seems like the right choice.” The RSP wave sweeping the nation after the GenZ movement is seen in Madhes, and the PR ballots might reflect that, notes political analyst Tula Narayan Shah.&nbsp; “But the socio-cultural networks, organisational setup, and legacy of democratic movement of traditional parties might still give them a fighting chance on the first past the post ballot,” he says. &nbsp;“The door-to-door campaign style of candidates has always been more prominent in Madhes than elsewhere.”&nbsp; Villages like Dhankaul in Sarlahi-4 where <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grand-split-in-nepal-s-grand-old-party">Gagan Thapa</a> of the Nepali Congress (NC) is running against incumbent Amresh Singh, is an NC stronghold. Singh won the election here twice before in 2013 and 2017 when he was an NC leader, and still had goodwill among NC voters when he ran and won as an independent during the 2022 election. “I voted for him twice before when he was in the NC, but he did not do anything for this or other villages. Once he is elected, he has not set foot here,” says Rajiv Yadav, a voter in Dhanakul. “The RSP will get more votes here than last time, but Gagan is sure to win. This village will vote for him.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_26691bb5a37edf705cc197a632d0bf032f984079a838d31bcd943bc0b9c97ff3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026022005024_26691bb5a37edf705cc197a632d0bf032f984079a838d31bcd943bc0b9c97ff3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> </figure>  Madhes is in the spotlight this election because two prime ministerial candidates have focused their attention in the region. Balen Shah began his campaign in Janakpur (main picture, left) in January as a ‘Son of Madhes’, and Gagan Thapa chose Sarlahi-4 as his constituency over Kathmandu-4, from where he has been elected since 2013.&nbsp; The Madhes has always been the battleground for Nepal’s electoral politics, and candidates from here, like Krishna Prasad Bhattarai from Parsa, Pushpa Kamal Dahal from Siraha, Jhala Nath Khanal from Sarlahi, and Madhav Kumar Nepal from Rautahat, have all been prime ministers. Despite electing politicians to high office in Kathmandu, districts of Madhes have consistently ranked low in development and service delivery indicators, especially in basic healthcare and education. Socio-economic inequalities stemming from a lack of opportunities has also meant that Madhes districts have the highest rate of out-migration in the country.&nbsp; What is different this time is that the people of the province have a Madhesi prime ministerial candidate who will represent them in national politics, and the main competition ultimately will be between the NC and RSP prime ministerial candidates. Interestingly, voters seem to be looking beyond Madhes-based parties who have historically campaigned on identity and federalism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_1b5c1134fb02ded72a12221200918df584b0cd003139bb2be44951efe9a65bf1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2026022005024_1b5c1134fb02ded72a12221200918df584b0cd003139bb2be44951efe9a65bf1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> </figure>  “Leaders of Madhes parties have glorified their struggle for votes but failed to perform on good governance at local and provincial levels,” explains Tula Narayan Shah. “Now, Balen has become a PM candidate as a face of the region, and as someone who will deliver based on his work as Kathmandu mayor.” If the RSP wins, it will be governing in the absence of provincial leadership that would play a crucial mediatory role between Kathmandu and local units. On Wednesday, RSP’s Madhes province chair Mamta Sharma resigned from the party and joined the NC. There is also some underlying tension between RSP cadre loyal to Balen Shah and Rabi Lamichhane. “It is not prudent to predict who will win the election and whether parties will deliver on promises,” says Tula Narayan Shah. “But win or lose, there is little basis at this time to believe that the RSP will be committed to making the federal system and provinces more functional.” Voters here in the heart of the federalism movement, however, are willing to give the RSP the benefit of the doubt. &nbsp;Resident Brahma Dev in Janakpur told us: &nbsp;“The RSP, like parties that came before them, deserve a chance to prove their leadership in the next five years. If they do not deliver, we can always vote them out next time.”&nbsp; On Wednesday, NC leaders unveiled the party’s 10-point election manifesto at a large rally in Janakpur (main picture, right). Gagan Thapa began by addressing a cheering crowd in Maithili, and said the NC was reformed, adding:&nbsp; “The GenZ did not reject us, they told us to change our ways.” Also on Wednesday 800km away at the other end of the country in Dhangadi, Balen Shah, in a speech that lasted just three minutes, he said: “Don’t vote for us, give us work to do.”&nbsp;