When we think of Nepal's history, mostly political events jump to mind: the expansion of the Gorkhali state, Jang Bahadur's takeover, or the 'People's War’. We rarely think about disease. But diseases have shaped the course of history in the Himalaya in many unexpected and important ways. Perhaps no disease did so more than malaria, which plagued low hill valleys and especially Tarai forests for centuries. Its near complete eradication in the 1960s has altered the lives of almost every Nepali in one way or another. Viruses somewhat similar to the coronavirus have also touched the lives of countless Nepalis, and shaped larger events. Measles, influenza, hepatitis, <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/polio-hunt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">polio</a>, and rabies have killed or maimed thousands. In 1918, the <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/remembering-a-pandemic-100-years-ago/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Spanish Influenza</a> cut down 12-18 million Indians, and probably tens of thousands of Nepalis. In some districts in north India, 1 in 10 died. Near Agra, 1 in 7 died. More recently, 50,000 Nepalis now live with HIV, many others have been lost to this virus which first appeared three decades ago.Part II: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The smallpox virus in British India</a>Part III: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smallpox, politics and power in Kathmandu</a>Part IV: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-eradicated-the-smallpox-virus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">How Nepal eradicated the smallpox virus</a>Part V: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/viruses-past-present-and-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Viruses past, present and future</a> <figure><img width="2048" height="1393" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121120/636b8d9e9c7e80680e06b359jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Health worker administering a small pox vaccine on a person in Sanischare of Jhapa. Photo: BETH PRENTICE AND BOB FRANK</figcaption></figure>Before COVID-19, perhaps the most feared virus in Nepali history was smallpox. Until its eradication in the mid 1970s, smallpox (biphar in Nepali, chechak in Hindi) regularly terrorised Nepali towns and villages. It struck mostly children, causing excruciating pain, killing many, and leaving survivors permanently disfigured. Every year saw new cases, but every five or ten years, a broader epidemic would tear through communities, particularly dense settlements such as Kathmandu and avenues of trade and communication, such as Nepal's postal routes. A large outbreak hit Kathmandu in 1958, and a pockmark survey in 1965 showed that 16% of the Valley's population had contracted smallpox at some time in their lives. And they were the survivors -- the virus killed roughly one of every three it afflicted.Unlike diseases like cholera that hit the poor in greater numbers, smallpox was an equal opportunity killer. It struck down both raja and raiti. Several times it invaded Nepal's royal palace.The last case of smallpox in Nepal appeared in 1975. The disease, historian <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/history/elizabeth-fenn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Elizabeth Fenn</a> has written, is ‘a misery commonplace in years gone by but unfamiliar to the world today'. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-in-the-time-of-cholera/">Kathmandu in the time of Cholera</a>, Tom RobertsonViruses like smallpox and COVID-19 originate in animals before spreading to humans. Coronavirus developed in bats, but no one knows where smallpox came from. Today, experts believe that as many as 100 million types of viruses exist in animals worldwide, waiting to jump to humans under the right conditions. Once in the human body, viruses become tiny engines of infection of simple but deadly design, little bits of genetic coding packaged in a protein that hijack the body's cells, transforming them into ‘virus producing factories', as historian of medicine Frank Swowden has put it. The virus then reproduces exponentially, killing its host cells and, unless checked, overwhelming the body's defenses.  All diseases have different characteristics and personalities. Their origins, methods of transmission, symptoms, and social impact vary widely. Smallpox spread easily. It moved not by bite of flea or mosquito but from human to human contact, normally through droplets coughed or sneezed into the air. Because the disease caused open sores in a patient's mouth and throat, a single sneeze or cough could launch thousands of infected particles into the air. The virus could also spread through beds and items of clothing. If you lived in a house with a relative suffering from smallpox, and if you had never had the disease before, you had a 50-50 chance of getting it. There was no cure.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-mosquito-that-changed-nepals-history/">The insect that changed Nepal's history</a>, Tom Robertson <figure><img width="2300" height="2728" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121120/636b8da19c7e80680e06b35ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Smallpox was horrific. Perhaps only bubonic plague and cholera sparked more terror. It left survivors badly pockmarked and often blind. Historically, smallpox caused three-quarters of all blindness in India. Smallpox, an Indian observer noted in 1879, ‘touches the keenest of human susceptibilities; for there are thousands in this country who, though spared by it from death, still have traces of its violence in the deep marks on the face or the loss of an eye’.Around the world, the smallpox virus wrought havoc and dramatic social change. In Europe, it ripped through the dense, disorganised cities and towns of the 17th and 18th  centuries. Half of Europe's population carried scars from the disease. Smallpox afflicted rich and poor alike. It killed England's Queen Mary and Prince William, ending the house of Stuart.In the Americas, smallpox spurred even more devastation and turmoil. Because indigenous groups had no previous exposure and therefore no immunity, they died in much higher rates than Europeans. Whole communities were wiped out. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-microcosm-of-all-of-the-changes-in-world-health/">“Nepal is a microcosm of all of the changes in world health”,</a> Nepali Times  <figure><img width="1278" height="716" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121120/636b8da59c7e80680e06b35bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The massive waves of death cleared the way for European settlement and spurred the import of slaves from Africa, many of whom had immunities from childhood. Smallpox acted as an ‘unwitting instrument of empire,’ according to Fenn.In its tragic wake, smallpox also prompted important public health innovations. In many parts of Asia, including India and Nepal, people for centuries used variolation -- inoculation using live virus -- to block the disease. A string infected from a mild case of the disease would be rubbed under the skin, thus actually giving the person the disease. Some would perish, but most survived, thereby gaining immunity from future outbreaks.A less risky and more broadly effective vaccine was developed in Britain in the 1790s. A country doctor named Edward Jenner, noticing that milkmaids never contracted smallpox, discovered that intentionally giving humans cowpox -- a virus related to smallpox -- could create immunity to the disease without inoculation's painful symptoms and risk of death. Jenner predicted that vaccines like his could one day eradicate smallpox from the planet. ‘The annihilation of the smallpox, the most dreadful scourge of the human species,' he wrote in 1801, 'must be the final result of this practice.’That prophecy became reality in the 1970s -- but only after a century of misguided British efforts in colonial India, and only after a complicated and controversial global eradication campaign in the 1960s and 1970s that only succeeded, as one historian of medicine put it, ‘by the thinnest of margins’. Coronavirus differs from smallpox in important ways. Nonetheless, revisiting smallpox's history in the Himalaya can help us better understand the interconnected social, medical, and political landscapes in which we live. This is the first in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">series of articles</a> about the history of disease in Nepal. Forthcoming columns will explore British attempts to spread vaccination in India and the role of smallpox in Kathmandu’s power struggles in the 19th century, and its eradication campaign in the 1960s. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tom Robertson</a>, PhD, is researching the environmental history of Kathmandu Valley.

Tom Robertson

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Big story of small pox in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79ac9c7e80680e064717jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="388"/><figcaption>American Red Cross volunteers carrying a Spanish Flu victim in 1919. Photo: RED CROSS</figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNER7BK9EfiZTZ7HAcrRW7TMnI6jKg">current COVID-19 pandemic</a> has forced many to Google other historic outbreaks, and the search usually brings them to the 1918 influenza epidemic that killed between 20-40 million people – half of them in South Asia.Just over 100 years ago, as Europe was coming out of a ruinous four-year trench warfare, American soldiers brought the flu to the front lines from where it had spread like wildfire across Europe.Although it is called the ‘Spanish’ Flu, the virus first appeared in North America and crossed the Atlantic on US troopships bound for the front lines. It is called Spanish Flu because the virus was making people sick in the Pyrenees long after it had subsided elsewhere.After the war, British Army soldiers returning to India (some of them could very well have been Gurkhas) brought the virus to Bombay from where it spread along India’s vast railway network. 50 in every 1,000 Indians died of the virus.There were two waves of the influenza epidemic. It was probably transferred from returning migratory waterfowl to humans in Kansas in spring of 1918 before jumping across the Atlantic to Europe. The spread slowed over the summer, but returned with a vengeance in the autumn that year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79ae9c7e80680e064718jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1816"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Although there are many books about the Spanish Flu in Western literature, in South Asia there is no properly archived documentation about the tragic pandemic that took many lives.Even Mahatma Gandhi was stricken by the bug, and bodies were piled high along river banks in India as cremation sites ran out of firewood. Unlike COVID-19, the 1918 influenza virus struck people in the 20-40 age group.While it affected 28% of all Americans, killing 675,000 – of the US soldiers killed in World War I, half died of influenza. But surprisingly, the pandemic had very little effect on China.Many viruses have an animal reservoir, and the Spanish Flu was associated with ducks and pigs as is usual for influenza viruses. The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE-MAzB2oWqzXngSV-qeu_vZW781w">MERS coronavirus</a> that affected the Gulf region in 2012 is associated with camels, and the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2664" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2664&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFPL8LEypjMiL-Zq9OumVczJ63a9w">SARS coronavirus of 2003</a> transferred from civet cats. While the COVID-19 probably originated in bats like the other coronaviruses, its host is believed to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/coronavirus-outbreak-may-curb-wildlife-trafficking/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/coronavirus-outbreak-may-curb-wildlife-trafficking/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGdAGDJ3BCYbsOftkHyaOipIJecdw">the pangolin</a>.As the ‘Spanish’ flu clearly showed, there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/covid-19-nepal-and-the-hygiene-hypothesis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/covid-19-nepal-and-the-hygiene-hypothesis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFhpeCjNw-lYwjui_QOmW3PKMnd3g">no evidence to show that we in South Asia have better immunity</a> towards the novel coronavirus COVID-19. So, what can be done?First thing is to increase tests for COVID-19 in suspected patients even without a travel history to affected areas. The more tests we do, the more we will know about the spread of  the actual disease.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-a-test/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is a test</a>, EditorialIt is also crucial to do cross-sectional serological studies in communities to see if the virus has been introduced there. This test (unlike the RNA-based diagnostic test for a patient) can be done on asymptomatic people in the community to check for COVID-19 antibodies in the blood, and could give us an idea about the extent of the exposure to the community.Many of these antibody tests are new, and the Chinese have vast experience with them in treating COVID-19. The Nepali government would be well advised to seek Chinese help with antibody testing so that we are better prepared in the days and months ahead. Without more diagnostic and serological tests, we may continue to have a false sense of security as the virus continues to sneak up on us in South Asia.The silver lining (if there is one) in this unfolding COVID-19 pandemic is the attention that it has attracted to the importance of rapid diagnostic tests for other neglected infectious diseases in South Asia like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEq-c2ak8GqLj2idm1BOUPOOAk46A">tuberculosis</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18178#.XnhYpkAza70" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D18178%23.XnhYpkAza70&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZKfS0Lv_GE4wqJrQaZ6OSfqTgdg">typhoid</a>, typhus, or leptospirosis.The tests need to be accurate, simple, affordable, and quick. Rapid diagnostics will not just help find infected people, but also to decide on specific therapy so that unnecessary antibiotics and other treatment are not administered. Proper diagnosis will lead to control of antimicrobial resistance, another medical crisis affecting the world today.At present, diagnostic tests take many hours if not days, so hopefully, after the dust from COVID-19 settles, there will be more work on rapid tests for these still-rampant ‘biblical’ afflictions that plague us.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79b19c7e80680e064719jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="803"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Another positive effect of the COVID-19 pandemic may be the restoration of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585031842556000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEk_tK3eXW25A_sGyzoFrJsJEBxww">people’s faith in effective tried and tested vaccines</a> in the western world.Rumours about side-effects of vaccines going viral on social media have convinced many parents not to inoculate their children, leading to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases like diphtheria, polio and whooping cough in the West. If successful, the COVID-19 vaccine would set the record straight for the proliferation of ‘anti-vaxxers’.Pandemics are like earthquakes, they cannot be wished away. It is best we prepare for a potential COVID-19 outbreak as best and resourcefully as we can. This is not optional, since there will be more pandemics in future.Buddha Basnyat is a clinical researcher at Patan Academy of Health Sciences and a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585631034431000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0aoyspsOeHIBjtexE2rB8xE3KOw">frequent health columnist</a> for Nepali Times.

Buddha Basnyat

Remembering a pandemic 100 years ago

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan