<img width="640" height="269" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121152/636ce60d9c7e80680e096746jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Supreme Court on Tuesday declared the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority's  (CIAA) use of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-recruiter-netted-in-sting-raid/">sting operations</a> unconstitutional, putting an end to two decades of scare-mongering fueled by personal agenda and impunity.Acting on a petition filed by Advocate Bishnu Prasad Ghimire, the Constitutional Bench of the SC led by Chief Justice Cholendra Shamsher Rana declared the provision for sting operations set out by CIAA Rule 30 (2002) as contrary to the spirit and essence of the Constitution. “The nature of the stipulated provision is found to be encouraging the investigating officer to act in an arbitrary way”, the brief judgment issued today stated. Decried by critics as a tool to further personal interests, Rule 30 gave CIAA operatives the power to procure and set up bribes for stings and exempted them from constitutional law which criminalises the giving of kickbacks.Opportunists then exploited this loophole, conspiring with operatives to set up bribes and implicate low-level employees they had disagreements with.Enforcement of Rule 30 was noticeably higher, and random, over the last few years. Of 206 cases of graft registered in the Special Court by the CIAA last fiscal year, 181 had sting operations, from which 99 involved kickbacks less than Rs 25,000.There were 277 arrests, among whom 69 ranked as non-gazetted officers or lower and 16 were office peons. It is clear that the CIAA is focused merely on the ‘easy work’ of luring low-ranked officers and making arbitrary arrests in an extralegal manner. As the CIAA goes around chasing after small-time offenders and innocents, corruption in the larger scale flourishes. Over the last three years, only four percent of cases registered by the CIAA concerned serious offences, including revenue embezzlement and illegal acquisition of property. “Despite the instructions of the parliamentary committee and the emergence of huge scandals such as Ncell and Wide Body, the CIAA has failed to conduct any meaningful investigation.” says former Chairman of the Special Court Gauri Bahadur Karki. “Sting operations are their way of fudging case numbers to inflate performance.”     <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ciaa-traps-small-fish-lets-big-ones-go/">A Centre for Investigative Journalism (CIJ) report</a> in July last year detailed instances where sting operations had led to arrests of low-level employees.For example, contractor Sujan Poudel filed a complaint at the CIAA against police deputy superintendent Shyam Kumar Rai, accusing him of soliciting a bribe. The CIAA decided to catch Rai red-handed in a sting operation. Poudel went to Rai’s office and surreptitiously planted Rs140,000 in cash in the police officer’s drawer. Immediately after, officials from the CIAA who were hiding outside barged into the office and arrested Rai.The media ran the news: ‘DSP Rai arrested with Rs140,000 bribe money’. The CIAA took Rai under custody and filed a corruption case at the Special Court. Rai later accused Poudel of framing him because he had taken action against the contractor for illegal sand mining and quarrying. “CIAA can file corruption case if someone is caught taking a bribe,” said constitutional expert Bhimarjun Acharya told CIJ then, “but a constitutionally empowered body’s involvement in using cash to trap someone is not really acceptable matter in any civilised society, and it goes against the rule of law.”Former police chief Hemanta Malla who has worked at the CIAA says the agency’s use of stings goes against the basic principle of ‘secret action’. He admits that sting operations can be used to expose serious crimes like match fixing, human trafficking and drug trafficking, but says the use of sting operations against petty crime is ‘overkill’.“The target of secret action should be to break organised crime networks, but the CIAA’s operation seems just focused on arresting junior-ranking officials. This should be stopped because the sting tool can be misused,” Malla added.

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Sting operation ruled illegal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5af9c7e80680e096724jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="448"/><figcaption>DoFE sting team after a successful raid in Dhumbarahi. December 22, 2020.</figcaption></figure>The Nepal government transfers civil servants regularly, sometimes as routine rotation, but also because of unmet vested interests. The heads of the Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE),  which is the regulatory arm of the Labor Ministry, have recently seen short tenures. With its inter-governmental aspect, and the interests of migrant workers and private sector, overseas labour demands a steep learning curve. But once heads of the DoFe get a grasp of the issues they are transferred. Momentum is lost. Priorities change. Unfinished businesses remain unfinished. Relationships and trust need to be re-established. Progress is delayed. The Director General (DG) of DoFE, Kumar Dahal (pictured below) was recently transferred and spoke to Upasana Khadka at Nepali Times about his 14-month tenure, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-recruiter-netted-in-sting-raid/">sting operations</a> of ‘manpower’ agencies last year that he helped organise which led to the suspension of the licenses of four recruiters found illegally interviewing and charging workers exorbitant fees for jobs in the Qatar Police. This suspension was quickly revoked by Labour Minister Gauri Shankar Chaudhary. Excerpts of interview:Nepali Times: Your transfer was a bit abrupt? Kumar Dahal: Look, rotation are part of the bureaucratic process, especially at the senior level. My 14-month tenure is actually considered quite long. The foreign employment sector has many stakeholders with varied interests, which don’t always align. Unwillingness to engage or cooperate in certain activities can make rotations more likely.Having said that, it would be better if people doing good work are allowed to continue for at least two years to achieve tangible results. Change is not easy in a sector where malpractice like overcharging workers or buying visas are entrenched.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5b39c7e80680e096725jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="639">Earlier they were isolated events, but soon they became habit and now, they have become a<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/why-has-zero-cost-migration-not-happened/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> part of the culture</a>. Our regulatory oversight has been insufficient and the situation has deteriorated over the decades. Even migrants are convinced that paying hefty fees and high interest rates are part of the recruitment culture and they comply, often questioning it only when it is too late. The players are able to make easy money without much effort, time or investment, exploiting the desperation of our youth. Changing this will take time. It depends on bold, visionary leadership, which is lacking.As a regulatory agency DoFe has to adopt restrictive policies, but you don’t want to deprive migrants of lucrative overseas opportunities. How do you balance the two?The category of migrants we are dealing with need help navigating the system. They are vulnerable to cheating, so regulations are needed. We first need to accept that most <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kleptocrats-of-kathmandu-and-kualalampur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">problems faced by migrants begin in Nepal</a> and sometimes, even problems abroad are byproducts of activities here. Every time we received a tip-off from migrants regarding possible malpractice, there has always been something illegal going on which made our sting operations successful. Recruiters have to abide by business ethics, but they often don’t, which makes regulation necessary. Ideally, they should be responsible for workers they send abroad, but that often does not happen.The private sector is driving this industry, and our role as regulators would be hands-off and minimal if their work was transparent. But it isn’t. Just a few days ago, our inspection of 45 pre-departure orientation training providers showed that 30 were giving out certificates without training. Then there are other types of problematic migration: via individuals, education consultancies or traffickers, or on wrong visas, such as visit visas.We in government also need to be responsible, which isn’t the case always, either. The question for both the government and the recruiters should be whether the migrant worker is satisfied with the services and protection being afforded. Currently, I am afraid they are not.We can do better with facilitation support. For starters, we can simplify the approval process of job demands in destination countries and explore opportunities in markets like Europe where there is a potential demand for Nepalis. A foreign employment business fund has been set up for welfare tasks, funded by interest from the Rs20 million escrow deposit of each manpower company parked at commercial banks. A guideline is being drawn up jointly by recruiters and the government.What are some of the lessons from the pandemic?First, we need to be more proactive in our decision-making. Even in instances when the governments or employers offered to send migrants desperate to get home at their own expense last year, we did not allow it due to blanket rules about flights.Second, our embassies need to be strengthened significantly to handle grievances better. The staff size at embassies is not proportionate to the numbers of Nepali workers there.Third, our governance system isn’t prepared to handle undocumented workers. The documentation status of migrants does not determine incoming remittances, so we should support all stranded migrants during a crisis.Fourth, recruiters should have been involved more during repatriation.On the bright side, the pandemic forced us to expedite technology adoption. Migrants can now renew labour approvals from anywhere in the world, and we have also started recording data on returnees.Read Also<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-workers-overseas-toil-through-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali workers overseas toil through the pandemic</a>, Upasana Khadka<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-workers-overseas-toil-through-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers</a>, Upasana KhadkaWhat was your experience at DoFE with the free-visa-free-ticket policy?<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/zero-sum-game-in-zero-cost-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Free-visa-free-ticket</a> is a populist policy implemented without considering the migration ecosystem. It isn’t being implemented and we don’t have the capacity to do so in today’s context. This has also larger implications like the government losing a high amount of tax revenue and workers not having the receipt of actual payment made.Revising the cap on services from Rs 10,000 to first month’s salary as demanded by recruiters is reasonable in cases where employers are not providing service fees--provided the penalty for overcharging workers is increased. This reform will also be meaningless if diplomatic efforts are not ramped up to get governments of destination countries and employers on board. I have heard anecdotes of Nepali recruiters paying Rs250,000 to bag jobs that pay only Rs50,000. Our recruiters do not have direct access to employers but operate through agents abroad. Most employers or foreign agents are also not ethical, so the costs trickle down to workers.We have not been able to get into the crux of the issue and some policies are merely populist. Sting operations are insufficient. The number of recruiting agencies in Nepal at 853 is too high. Incentives to facilitate mergers or regulations to drive out the bad apples are needed so that monitoring is easier. For that we need a strong governance system and bold leadership free of manipulation, political interference and corruption.And the ban on overseas household workers?The domestic work sector is problematic, especially in West Asia. Those in Japan, Cyprus and Turkey are not facing such systemic problems. It is not just Nepal that implements the ban which signals that there are problems in this sector. I get desperate calls from domestic workers in transit in Sri Lanka, Oman, Jordan and Saudi Arabia pleading for rescue support. I am not in favor of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lift-the-ban-on-female-domestic-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lifting the ban</a> completely but to have approaches specific for each country, especially domestic worker-specific bilateral labour agreements with countries that also have in place strong domestic worker specific regulations. A key criteria is that embassies and families should be able to reach domestic workers when necessary.What are three of your priorities that you hope your successor will continue?The way to minimise corruption is via faceless service so recruiters and bureaucrats do not have to meet in person. We are almost there with the current online system. The remaining kinks need to be immediately ironed out so everything can be done digitally. Eventually, we also need to go to a one-door system, so migrants don’t have to go to different offices for migration-related services.There is a high demand for workers in Europe but we don’t have active diplomatic presence in many European countries and demand attestation, market exploration, worker protection etc become a problem. Otherwise we either lose opportunities, or migrants take circuitous routes with high recruitment costs.Finally, we lack understanding on the skills profile of our youth or a systematic way to monitor labour opportunities abroad. What skills or training do they have, what is needed abroad?Overall, we have a robust foreign employment management architecture with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-few-good-agents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dedicated agencies</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-reintegrate-returning-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">policies</a> which is something to be optimistic about. Our singular focus should be on its implementation.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/commercially-important-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Commercially important people</a>, Editorial

Upasana Khadka

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Why are labour officials transferred frequently?

<figure><img width="1116" height="656" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8ada9c7e80680e06b265jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Businessman Sulav Agarwal and the diplomatic car he used to make delivery of black market infra-red thermometers.</figcaption></figure>The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has withdrawn certain facilities granted to honorary consuls of countries without embassies in Nepal after one of them was caught in a police sting operation on Tuesday trying to sell infra-red thermometers in the black market.The decision was taken by a meeting headed by Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali in Kathmandu. There are honorary consuls from over 45 countries in Kathmandu at present, and many of them are Nepali nationals.‘The privilege of using blue plate and the flag in official vehicle of the Honorary Consuls has been suspended with immediate effect until further notice,’ a statement from the Ministry said.The honorary consul of Kyrgyzstan Sulav Agarwal was caught as he was making personal delivery of 67 thermal gun infra-red thermometers to police posing as buyers. In phone negotiations, Agarwal had agreed to sell the devices used to measure body temperature for coronavirus for Rs 15,000 – three times more than the retail price.Agarwal is owner of the Shanker Group that has interests in cement, construction and textiles. He had ordered 20,000 thermal guns from China after the COVID-19 pandemic, and had brought some of them to Kathmandu last week on a special Nepal Airlines flight from Guangzhou. <figure><img width="640" height="864" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8adc9c7e80680e06b266jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>One of the 67 thermal guns confiscated from Agarwal.</figcaption></figure>Agarwal has been remanded in custody for a week at the Police Station in Darbar Marg pending investigation, and will face up to five years in jail if found guilty. Agarwal has repeatedly told the police he bought the devices in the local market. <figure><img width="1102" height="712" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8ade9c7e80680e06b267jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Sulav Agarwal’s honorary consul ID card.</figcaption></figure>Police was acting on a tip-off and called Agarwal on his phone posing as buyers. Agarwal arrived in Naxal to make delivery of the 67 devices driving his Mitsubishi SUV with blue Kyrgyz diplomatic plates.

Not so honorary consul

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

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