<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b794e9c7e80680e0646f4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>On 15 March, a 5 magnitude earthquake struck Lumle near Pokhara. The National Seismological Centre said this was not the usual aftershock of the 2015 earthquake, but a main shock. Although the tremor went largely unnoticed elsewhere in Nepal, for seismologists it was a grim reminder of tectonic forces beneath western Nepal that are on a hair trigger.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.XnPD7qgzbIW">There is no accurate way of predicting an earthquake</a>, but scientists can determine the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/aint-seen-nothing-yet/">‘seismic gap’</a> in a region where a megaquake has not happened for some time, and determine the probability of it happening.For instance, western Nepal has not experienced an earthquake more than 8 magnitude since 1205, a event that created the debris field from a cataclysmic flood on which Pokhara is situated today, and even killed the king in Kathmandu. Seismologists say another major earthquake in the region between Pokhara and Dadeldhura is long overdue.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/aint-seen-nothing-yet/">Mind the gap</a>, Editorial<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79509c7e80680e0646f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="252" height="128">“There has been no major earthquake in western Nepal for 600 years, and there is a lot of stress accumulation and the energy will have to be released at some point,” warns Surya Narayan Shrestha of the group <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NSET2020/">National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)</a>.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/">far west of Nepal</a>, and indeed the country, is ill-equipped to handle another earthquake, especially a disaster on such a massive scale. But preparing for it will be the responsibility of the newly-formed Natural Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Authority which is supposed to take over from the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) set up after the 2015 earthquake.The NRA has got mixed reviews for its reconstruction work in the 14 districts in Central Nepal that were affected by the 2015 disaster. Critics said it bungled the Rs300,000 reconstruction grant with conflicting criteria, and the new houses did not meet acceptable standards.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha RaiBut NRA’s defenders say the agency was a victim of political wrangling with the government change following the Indian blockade in late 2015. The agency got Rs4.1 billion which it first spent on rescue, relief and emergency operations, and the remaining for reconstruction with main focus on private housing, public buildings, health facilities and schools.Even critics of the government admit that despite the politicisation of the NRA and initial delays due to the frequent change in its leadership, it has managed to catch up with reconstruction work and has achieved more than what Pakistan and India have done after earthquakes there.The first head of the NRA was the UML-appointee Sushil Gyewali, who replaced his Nepali Congress-backed predecessor <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reconstructing%20-reconstruction-authority-govind-raj-pokharel,3685">Govinda Raj Pokharel</a>. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hired-fired-rehired/">Gyewali was reappointed in 2018</a> after Prime Minister Oli assumed office.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hired-fired-rehired/">Hired, fired and rehired</a>, Om Astha Rai“Despite the lack of budget and political interruptions, the NRA has made its best effort to do a better job at reconstruction and at least provide shelter to those who have lost their homes in the 2015 earthquake,” Gyewali told Nepali Times in an interview.However, the agency has been <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471">criticised</a> for approving construction that do not meet basic living as requirements, and its handling of the way public grievances. At a conference in January, the NRA faced criticism for creating model villages in haste, neglecting marginalised groups and not giving enough priority to heritage reconstruction in Kathmandu Valley.“We were proposed to give the survivors cash-in-hand but we wanted it to be as transparent as possible and opted for the banking system, which delayed the reconstruction process,” Gyewali added. “But thankfully we have completed distributing all three tranches and we have signed agreements with most beneficiaries.” Most have received the first tranche, while 82% have got the second, and 70% have collected the third installment of their housing grants.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79519c7e80680e0646f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Our number one priority was to provide shelter to those who have lost their homes, second to rebuild health and educational institutions and third cultural heritage, but having said that all these components are important to all us,” Gyewali added.NRA data shows that nearly 500,000 private houses have so far been rebuilt, which is over 60% of those damaged or destroyed. Another 190,000 or so are under construction. NRA has also managed to reconstruct 360 of the 415 public buildings, and slightly over half the health facilities have been rebuilt. Nearly 80% of schools have been rebuilt.According to NRA’s CEO Gyewali, the authority plans to complete at least the construction of private housings before the end of the tenure by December 2020.“By the time the NRA winds down in December, we will finish most of the reconstruction. We want to ensure the quality of work we deliver and focus on earthquake resistant buildings keeping in mind future earthquakes,” said Gyewali.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79539c7e80680e0646f7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Whatever is not finished, and also the task of preparing a disaster management plan for a future western Nepal quake will be the work of the National Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Authority (DMA). Anil Pokhrel has been appointed CEO of the Authority which falls under the Home Ministry.The DMA will be tasked with coordinating all ministries and departments and come up with emergency guidelines to reduce risk from all types of disasters from floods, earthquakes to even coronavirus. Recognising the special risk of a megaquake in western Nepal, the Authority is working with municipalities in Province 5 and 6 on preparedness.Explained Pokhrel: “We cannot avoid the danger, but we can be prepared by spreading awareness and take best of our efforts to manage exposure and vulnerability in those regions.”Disaster Management Authority tackles its first disaster: COVID-19The National Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Authority (DMA) was only formed in January 2020 to deal with floods and earthquakes. But it plunged headlong into a disaster no one could have predicted: the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/fear-goes-viral/"> coronavirus pandemic. </a>Even though its office still has not got all its furniture and equipment, the DMA has its hands full dealing with mitigating the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/fear-goes-viral/">COVID-19</a> pandemic from affecting Nepal. Under-staffed and still not fully functional, it has been thrown off the deep end to create an emergency response plan involving various agencies of government.“Currently, we are working on scenario based planning, and our role is to coordinate with other departments and assist them with an emergency response,” says Anil Pokhrel, CEO of the Authority.The DMA has been getting advice and other assistance from the World Health Organisation to deal with the pandemic. After not taking the epidemic seriously at first, the high-level committee chaired by Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel this week banned all air travel from Europe and West Asia to Nepal, postponed the high school exams, and banned gatherings of more than 25 people.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/">Nepal’s economy, already weak, takes direct hit</a>, Sanghamitra SubbaSaid Pokhrel: “It is good news that in Nepal the virus still has not caused a big turmoil and because of that we have had time to learn the do’s and don'ts looking at other countries, I think we are now ready to fight the virus.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/">What is novel about the novel coronavirus?</a>, Buddha Basnyat

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Rebuilding five years after 2015 quake

<figure><img width="1400" height="922" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369042d9c7e80680e037d08jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Om Astha Rai</figcaption></figure>One-and-a-half years after being fired for failing to speed up post-earthquake recovery, Sushil Gyewali is back as the CEO of National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) that was set up to oversee reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake.The way <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/no-money-for-helicopters-to-distribute-earthquake-relief,2792" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gyewali was hired</a>, fired and re-hired shows how reconstruction has been a casualty of intense <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/reconstruction-in-ruins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political rivalry</a> in Nepal. He is the fifth NRA Chief in less than three years, and in that time only one-third of the 600,000 earthquake-destroyed houses have been rebuilt. Only half the schools have been reconstructed.Gyewali was appointed by K P Oli of the UML when he was prime minister in 2016, but labeled “incompetent”and sacked by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal when the Maoist Chair was heading a coalition government with the Nepali Congress.However, after the Maoists-UML merged into the Nepal Communist Party, won last year’s elections, and came to power again, Oli reinstated Gyewali at the NRA.In an interview with Nepali Times this week, Gyewali said the charges about his under-performance were “politically-motivated”. He added: “They needed to criticise me because they wanted to overthrow the government that had appointed me. Earthquake reconstruction has always been held hostage to politics.”However, with his NCP mentors now firmly in power, Gyewali may face fewer obstacles during this tenure. He is now backed by a strong and stable government with a two-third majority in Parliament, and just like the KP Oli government itself, he has no excuses to fail or under-perform this time.The law allows the government to extend the NRA’s tenure by one year, but Gyewali says he is not even looking for an extension. “All earthquake-destroyed private homes will be rebuilt in the remaining two years, or even sooner,” he promised.When he was first appointed as the NRA Chief, Gyewali rued the absence of locally-elected representatives of people. But now, all of Nepal’s 752 local levels have mayors or village heads. He says working with elected mayors and village chairs to accelerate post-earthquake reconstruction will make rebuilding much easier this time.“The NRA will now also have a federal structure,” he said. “We will delegate more power and responsibility of reconstruction to municipalities and village councils. Each local government will have its own reconstruction unit, and the engineers deployed by the NRA will be based there.”Under pressure to expedite reconstruction, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/genuine-earthquake-survivors-missing-from-housing-grant-list%20,3498" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous NRA leadership</a> had given earthquake survivors a short deadline to rebuild as per approved designs. It had warned that those unable to meet the deadline will not be eligible for the rest of the Rs300,000 reconstruction grants. Thousands of families borrowed from local money lenders and cooperatives to meet the deadline. Many also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">built small, one-room houses</a> that were not seismic resistant, just to meet the NRA condition.The NRA has faced criticism for forcing earthquake survivors to build houses that do not meet their living requirements. Gyewali admitted the deadline added stress to earthquake survivors, but he said reconstruction would be too open-ended if there is no cut-off date to use housing grants. But he added: “We will now give a more realistic deadline.”The NRA also faces a funding crisis. Nepal has not received all the money pledged by donors. At the International Conference on Nepal’s Reconstruction on 25 June 2015, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparing-for-June-donor-summit,2300" target="_blank" rel="noopener">donors pledged more than $4.1 billion</a> to rebuild houses, schools, health facilities and other infrastructure. But the actual pledge, excluding non-reconstruction commitments, was just $3.43 billion. Even that money <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/broken-promises-reconstruction,3627" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has not been received in full</a>.As soon as he got back to his old office, Gyewali has been trying to find out how much there is in the kitty, and explore sources to meet the shortfall. Some are skeptical that the NRA will be able to finish reconstruction in the remaining two years, even though it is now headed by a CEO backed by a stable government.They say it was a mistake to copy Pakistan’s model of reconstruction by setting up a separate agency because Nepal’s socio-political landscape is different. Pakistan was ruled by the Army when it was devastated by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005, and houses were rebuilt swiftly under a general. Also, survivors were given sufficient reconstruction grants and did not have to borrow as they had to in Nepal.Meanwhile, Nepal was in the throes of a polarised debate over the constitution when the earthquake struck on 25 April 2015. It was a foregone conclusion that reconstruction would face political obstacles, yet Nepal invited retired Pakistani Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmad to share his experience and this shaped the structure of the NRA.Asked about this, Gyewali said: “Copying the Pakistan model was probably a mistake. But did anyone propose a better model?”Read also:  '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11906&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lost in reconstruction</a>', Shiva Uprety'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11912&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class struggle</a>', Prakriti Kandel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-baker-of-barpak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

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Hired, fired, rehired

Next to my home in Bhainsepati stood a dead Uttis tree next to a public tap. A nearby water tank built a year earlier had killed its roots.
If the tree collapsed, people living nearby and those queuing up to fetch water at the tap would be hurt. With the storm season approaching, the risk was obvious. The tree could also fall on my own house, so I volunteered to find a way to remove this threat.
Little did I know how difficult it would be. A forest officer acquaintance told me there is a special procedure for cutting risky trees. I contacted the Lalitpur District Forest Office (DFO).&nbsp;
He said a technical report from a field officer was needed, and passed on her number. When I called, she asked for the location, photos, and a video. I send them all.
The ward office also suggested I use Lalitpur Metropolitan City’s mobile app, Lalitpur Alert, to report the problem. I uploaded photos, and submitted the complaint. This seemed to be very easy and efficient.
Indeed, the next day the municipality called me back and I explained the situation. They said they could not act without permission from the DFO. I asked why the app existed if the city could not act on such complaints. The officer said he did not know. My happiness was short-lived.
A couple of days later, the app notified me that my problem had been solved, and the complaint was removed. But the dead tree still stood there defiantly.&nbsp;
A week later, two forest technicians arrived on a scooter to inspect the tree. They looked up at the tree and asked if I had a measuring tape so they could measure its diameter.
“You are the technicians,” I told them. “You came to inspect the tree, and you came without a measuring tape?”
I rummaged at home and found a tape measure. They got the diameter and said they would prepare a technical report, but I would have to obtain a recommendation letter from the ward office and submit it to the DFO.
“This tree is dead,” I told them. “It is on public land. You have seen it with your own eyes. You know it's dangerous, so write a report and arrange for it to be cut. Why do I have to run from office to office to apply for recommendation letters?”
Their answer was simple, yet expected: “Those are the rules.”
They left, and I gave up. Two technicians spent half a day visiting the site. The metropolis runs a complaint system with a mobile app funded with public money. The ward office has staff to solve problems. Yet none of these institutions took the responsibility to remove a dangerous tree.
Everyone is busy citing rules and regulations and passing the buck. Weeks passed. Everyone reacted to the problem, but no one took any responsibility to resolving it.
Then, one bright December morning under a deep blue sky, a few neighbourhood boys were swinging their axes on the trunk. They had no proper equipment, no safety gear, and no professional experience.
I gave the boys some money and so did a neighbour. It took an hour or so for the tree to come crashing down safely. We had paid to have the tree cut illegally, and the matter ended there.
Multiple government offices, technicians, procedures, and mobile apps could not remove a dangerous tree, and we had to break the law to cut it. The tree is gone now, but the real problem remains: an inefficient bureaucracy.&nbsp;
It is perhaps symbolic that the tree is the election sign of the Nepali Congress, which was part of Nepal's governance and bureaucracy for decades and did not perform well in this month's election.&nbsp;
That is the bureaucracy that the new RSP government now has to get to work. But it will not be easy.
I posted on Facebook: ‘When people feel leaders have grown arrogant or corrupt with power, they change their minds and their votes. If those who replace them follow the same path, voters will again change their minds and votes.’
I continued: ‘The strength of democracy lies in this simple principle: the more citizens act as independent voters, the stronger democracy becomes. The more they behave as party loyalists, the weaker it grows. If we want a better system, we must demand deep reform of the state bureaucracy and hold institutions accountable.’&nbsp;
The first responses came from two senior government officials. They told me privately that they agreed by 200% but could not say so publicly.
It is quite normal for a Nepali to get the run around in government offices, it is almost a given to be asked for a bribe. As an environmental reporter and citizen, I have numerous such examples.
It is not just one sector that has been suffering. It is everywhere, and this is just an example of how complicated our bureaucracy is. As a 40 something person, I am old enough to remember the 1990 pro-democracy movement, &nbsp;the Maoist insurgency. Many promises made then by the politicians were broken.
We fought for rights, we fought for regime change. The country has changed political systems several times, from monarchy to multiparty democracy and finally a republic.
Yet one thing that remains largely untouched or reformed is our inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy. The new government, to be led by the youngest prime minister in our history must start this reform if it wants to deliver.&nbsp;
Otherwise, we may have to keep changing governments every few years, and still find ourselves unable to legally cut down even one dead tree.

A dead tree tests Nepal's bureaucracy

The RSP and its prime minister are being sworn in this week after gaining an unprecedented election victory. This is a welcome change for many Nepalis who see it as a remedy to decades of coalition instability.&nbsp; Yet Nepal’s political history suggests otherwise. No majority government has ever completed its full term. This reveals a deeper structural problem: weakly institutionalised parties dominated by personalities rather than ideas. 1951: Dissatisfaction with the oppressive Rana regime among the educated elite led to the creation of political parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), Praja Parishad (later merged into the Nepali Congress), Gorkha Parishad, and the Nepal Communist Party.&nbsp; They emerged secretly, mainly in India during the height of that country’s independence. They organised a successful armed uprising against the Rana rule.&nbsp; 1959: The NC won a two-thirds supermajority in the first general election. Within a year, King Mahendra staged a coup and established the partyless absolute monarchy called the Panchayat system.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="675" height="849" loading="lazy" alt="Mahendra and BP"> </figure>  1991: After the People’s Movement, the ban on parties was lifted and Nepal became a constitutional monarchy. Elections were held under a new Constitution and the NC won 110 out of 205 seats, joining the United Leftist Front which functioned as a loose coalition.&nbsp; Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s first term ended with his resignation due to infighting, particularly with Ganesh Man Singh, who accused him of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">“emerging as a dictator, downgrading democratic norms and values, and even selling out national interests.”</a> Parliament was dissolved and the NC ended up losing the ensuing elections. 1994: Following the NC’s defeat, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">hung parliament emerged</a> with the UML forming a minority government that lasted only nine months before collapsing after a no-confidence vote, allowing a NC-led coalition to return to power.&nbsp; 1999: Voters gave the NC a second chance and the party won 111 out of 205 seats. The party was divided between supporters of Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who became prime minister. &nbsp;The internal NC power struggle intensified and Koirala became prime minister again only to face bribery scandals, the Maoist insurgency, and the royal massacre.&nbsp; In 2001, under growing pressure from both the public and the party, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/20/world/nepal-premier-resigns-caught-in-chaos-after-royal-blood-bath.html" target="_blank">Koirala was forced to resign</a> to be replaced by Sher Bahadur Deuba. The party eventually split into Koirala’s NC and Deuba’s NC (Democratic). &nbsp;In this chaos, king Gyanendra dissolved the parliament and assumed executive powers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="753" loading="lazy" alt="Deuba and Girija"> </figure>  2017: This was the first election under the federal constitution. The UML and Maoists created a surprise pre-electoral alliance, breaking the Maoist coalition with the NC. The left alliance won a massive victory with the UML winning 121 seats and the Maoists 53 seats. Prime Minister K P Oli fell out with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists. The House was dissolved, with the UML itself breaking into factions. What followed was seven shaky coalition governments in eight years.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7" data-rendition-name="original" width="667" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Oli and Prachanda"> </figure>  2022: The RSP was formed only four months prior to elections, but managed to become the fourth-largest party. In this month’s &nbsp;election, the RSP won a commanding parliamentary majority by presenting itself to the electorate as different from the discredited old parties.&nbsp; The RSP leadership structure is largely personality-driven and opaque. Party leader Rabi Lamichhane joined the governing coalition with the Maoists and UML securing four ministerial positions. Lamichhane became Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, using his swing vote to be the kingmaker party in the coalition. Lamichhane was embroiled in various scandals which he blamed on political vendetta. There was internal dissent within the party and among supporters who felt the coalition betrayed RSP’s founding ideals.&nbsp; Lamichhane <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/key-ally-quits-government-in-nepal/" target="_blank">reportedly</a> bypassed the party’s internal mechanisms, unilaterally deciding to pull out of the government without broad consultation.&nbsp; The youth-led September protests gave the RSP an opportunity to represent GenZ aspirations, and its popularity was cemented after Balendra Shah joined the party as a prime ministerial candidate.&nbsp; With its dramatic election victory, there is a question whether the &nbsp;party can separate itself from its two leaders, and have internal democracy. Or will it just be a vessel for new political elites to continue staying in power?&nbsp; ‘BALEN PARTY’ The RSP has increasingly relied on the same tactics that the NC once used in its heyday. Backed by Balendra Shah’s meteoric rise to fame, the RSP is called ‘The Balen Party’. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/cyberia/rsp-s-pr-list-is-not-good-pr" target="_blank">RSP’s PR list</a> includes celebrities, actors, singers, pageant winners, business personalities, and athletes to maximise visibility and public appeal. Many of these soon-to-be MPs have little to no experience working in government, or together as a team. Which is perhaps why they needed a two-day orientation last week. In today’s attention economy, political currency depends on visibility. This is why the RSP’s strategy to harness Shah’s popularity was necessary to secure victory, while Shah needed a political platform for the election.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Balen and Rabi"> </figure>  Political parties are essential for a democracy, but when they &nbsp;revolve around one dominant leader, internal institutions become weak, and decision-making becomes centralised in the leader rather than in party committees, rules, or ideological platforms.&nbsp; This is exactly what led to the downfall of the NC and the UML. Both over the years were ridden with inter- and intra-party strife and failed the electorate. RSP must take a lesson from this and unite to institutionalise beyond its two personalities. Or it will suffer the same fate as the legacy parties. Since its inception, RSP has espoused a populist and anti-establishment agenda. The ‘new’ RSP with the Balendra brand gained massive support by being a clear ‘other’.&nbsp; The RSP can fall into the same trap as the NC and the UML by defining itself by what it is not, rather than what it is for. Beyond the external enemies they oppose, these parties often struggle to articulate what they actually stand for.&nbsp; RSP positions itself as an alternative to established parties — a pragmatic, results-oriented political force rather than one driven by traditional ideologies. However,<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/theorizing-in-comparative-politics/parties-and-ideology/8386083191B53EC86A239B8852D4A6A6" target="_blank"> ideology gives a party identity and direction.</a> Without ideological grounding, RSP risks becoming a hollow vessel for power-chasing politicians who oppose each other’s every move, a story that is all too familiar.&nbsp; RSP can no longer define itself as being anti-establishment. It is now the establishment.&nbsp; While RSP might look like Congress 2.0 to many who have seen Nepal’s democratic trajectory, RSP does differ from past majority parties in both positive and negative ways.&nbsp; Times have also changed. Nepal is no longer a monarchy, literacy rates are much higher, social media has made information more accessible, and Nepalis are less forgiving, as seen by the events that transpired on 8-9 September 2025.&nbsp; The RSP has fielded more qualified candidates, and they could steer the country in the right direction. Many are experts in their fields and have had years of experience prior to joining politics. Having experts from such different backgrounds is a huge asset.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="RSP new MPs"> </figure>  Moreover, having MPs from various other parties/fields can also prevent a cult following of hardcore loyalists within the party.&nbsp; There are members loyal to certain RSP leaders in the party, but there are also those who will not hesitate to go against their leaders if need be. The RSP has little opposition in Parliament, so its own members may have to take on a check-and-balance role. Nepal is in a much better spot institutionally compared to what it was like back in the early days of its democracy. There is a Constitution, there is no active conflict, the monarchy is no longer an existential threat to democracy, and the local and provincial governmental bodies have had the time to settle.&nbsp; This means the RSP is in a better position to work without the basic institutional hurdles that previous governments faced, but it will not be able to hide behind institutional issues if it fails to deliver.&nbsp; In the past, majority parties could easily pin the blame on an authoritarian monarchy, a Maoist conflict, a lack of consensus during the constitution-building process, or a newly implemented federal system.&nbsp; Most of these were just excuses for incompetency. Governments were formed and fell based on self-serving negotiations, but they managed to keep the parties afloat, and the citizenry was willing to give them a second, third, or even fourth chance.&nbsp; The RSP will not have this privilege. Nepal has many problems, but its governmental bodies are better institutionalised than when the NC last had a majority. A challenge for RSP now would be fixing broken institutions, not building new ones. A recurring issue during Balendra Shah’s tenure as Kathmandu’s mayor were his <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2026/01/28/can-nepal-s-viral-mayor-run-the-country" target="_blank">disputes with the bureaucracy</a> that resulted in months of unpaid salary for KMC staff, a lack of collaboration between him and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, and rarely any public appearances.&nbsp; The RSP is inheriting a bureaucracy tainted by deep-seated patronage networks. Sustaining a government requires institutional collaboration and a willingness to work together, not disruption and division.&nbsp; While Nepal has seen the rise of many populist figures in its democratic history, the RSP’s victory based on Balendra Shah’s fame is new. Populism is usually harmful for a democracy because it punishes dissent, turns criticism into betrayal, and fuels hyper-nationalism, authoritarianism, and polarisation. A trend of punishing criticism is already visible on online spaces. Without an effective parliamentary opposition, the responsibility for democratic accountability will fall on the media and civil society. If the trend of intolerance to criticism deepens, Nepal risks sliding toward a majoritarian politics where popularity replaces accountability. Time and again, the Nepali people have given opportunities to parties that promise change, only to face disappointment. Nepal’s political history shows that majority governments fail not because they lack seats, but because they lack institutions.&nbsp; The electoral earthquake Nepal just witnessed could bring sweeping reforms or drown the country’s fragile democracy. If RSP hopes to succeed where others failed, it must build a party that outlives its founders. Suvexa Pradhan Tuladhar is an Early Career Policy Research Fellow at the Nepal Institute for Policy Research (NIPoRe).

Will it be different this time in Nepal?

Sometimes, we need to take a step back to realise what a tectonic movement Nepali politics witnessed this month.
In a region and world ruled by elected authoritarians, Nepalis &nbsp;went to the ballot box freely to express a collective will for change.
These faces in this group photo of the RSP’s 180 freshly-minted MPs at the ballroom of the Royal Tulip Hotel on Wednesday is symbolic of what Nepal has come through.&nbsp;
The ship of state righted itself after the September Storm, installing an interim government that held an election within six months in which voters banished obsolete politicians and their parties into oblivion.
Nepalis, fed up with the inept kakistocracy of the past three decades, took the country into a post-ideological phase — replacing Marxists, Maoists and monarchists &nbsp;with a belief in a new governing culture that rewards delivery and accountability. And they have trusted the RSP to carry it through.
Nepal’s history has never been linear, it jerks ahead in lurches. The polity also tends to take one step forward and two steps back, so the public’s great expectations is tempered by a sense of cautious optimism and guarded pessimism.
This could be the great leap forward that Nepalis have waited for and deserve, but it could also be a Gramscian interregnum in which the old is dead and the new is not yet born. We will have to wait to see whether this transitional period will also see ‘morbid symptoms’.
As disruptor-in-chief, it was the Balendra Shah ‘wave’ or ‘craze’ that propelled the RSP to power. The former Kathmandu mayor needed a party platform, and the RSP’s tainted leader Rabi Lamichhane required a booster. Nepal's voters were looking for a saviour.
Personality-wise Shah and Lamichhane are poles apart: one is Type B and the other Type A. One is enigmatic, the other phlegmatic. But yin and yang do also tend to complement each other.&nbsp;
Kathmandu’s chattering class is already making self-fulfilling prophecies about the two falling out, and are fishing for hints that they already have. Shah’s absence from the RSP’s orientation this week was taken as a clue.&nbsp;
Closing the two-day tutorial on Wednesday, Lamichhane delivered a fiery 30-minute speech that laid out the RSP’s main agenda: to function differently from the old parties, serve the people, avoid middlemen, become true lawmakers without taking the law into their own hands.&nbsp;
“The old political parties contributed to history, we will build the future with a new political contract with citizens,” he said, trying to rise over past controversies and his abrasive rhetoric to sound statesmanlike.&nbsp;
GIVE AND TAKE
Lamichhane is said to be in touch with the reclusive Shah to announce a compact cabinet next week. Its composition will be an indication of how much give-and-take there was, and whether the criteria for selecting ministers is competence or loyalty.
Will RSP ministers behave like rulers or service providers? The new government will dive right into the economic fallout of the West Asia war with soaring fuel &nbsp;prices, inflation and uncertainty about remittance inflows.
On Thursday, Gagan Thapa resigned as NC chair, taking moral responsibility for the party’s election loss. The UML’s unrepentant K P Oli does not share the same sentiment about who is responsible for his own party’s historic downfall.&nbsp;
NCP chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was luckier than his cross-party cohort, is now a comparative relic in a Parliament largely comprised of freshmen and sophomore lawmakers.
But the NC, UML and NCP still control provincial and most municipal governments. The old parties could try to make things difficult for the RSP at the centre, but it is also an opportunity for them to clean up their act ahead of local elections next year.&nbsp;
Another test for the RSP will be dealing with a heavily-politicised klepto-bureaucracy which has to frontend its policy decisions. &nbsp;

People’s power

Deadly floods two years ago along the southern fringes of Kathmandu Valley killed 200 people. Climate change was blamed, but the destruction was magnified by quarries and sand mining owned by local politicians and crony contractors. Disaster mitigation and environmental risk was not a priority for any of the political parties that ran and won Nepal’s election last week. Although the RSP has a supermajority, rural municipalities that grant mining contracts are still ruled by the established parties that supply aggregates and sand to feed &nbsp;Kathmandu’s construction boom. Here in Lele Valley, residents are worried about another monsoon season that will start in June and fear more floods bringing unmanaged gravel from quarries down the Nallu River.&nbsp; The house of Sanumaya Nagarkoti, 65, and ten neighbours were washed away by the flood on the night of 28 September 2024. She and her husband petitioned the ward and municipal council to remove the crushers but no one listened. The slopes above are scarred by landslides from two years ago, and the banks of the river are strewn with bounders the size of cars that were brought down. “We live in constant fear of landslides,” says Chakra Nagarkoti, “the heavy crusher machinery and tipper trucks also constantly shake the house.”&nbsp; Google Earth images show that 24.6 hectares of mountain flanks have been excavated since 2010, and despite the disaster no lessons have been learnt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="907" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  The RSP might have got a near two-thirds majority in Parliament but decision-making at the community level is controlled by politicians in cahoots with contractors.&nbsp; Along the Mahadev Khola, the Department of Mines cancelled excavation permits for crushers citing flood and landslide risk. Yet there are still 21 contractors mining stones and sand.&nbsp; Nearby Godavari Municipality also instructed operators who had not renewed permits to close down. No action was taken. One of them is Vinayak Multipurpose which delivers aggregate and stones for United Cement. Local ward chair Milan Silwal, has a stake in Vinayak and locals accuse him of taking the side of industry.&nbsp; Another slope is being gouged out near Mahadev Khola, and comparing satellite imagery from 2010 shows that the scar on the mountain is now five times bigger.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1125" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>United Cement operating near Mahadev Khola. Photo: ARCHANA DARJI</figcaption> </figure>  Nearby stands the lone house of 55-year-old Sabina Tamang, who lives with her husband and daughter. Due to the sound of the stone-breakers, they cannot hear each other speak. “Last year, a landslide destroyed our cowshed and latrine,” she says. “Next it is going to be our home.”&nbsp; DRY SPRINGS Lele gets its water from several perennial springs which have gone dry in recent years. One of them is near where the cement factory quarries limestone. “We hardly get any water, and the little that does flow is murky and red,” says local resident Rajesh Shrestha. A parliamentary committee directive ordered excavation to stop 15 years ago after a similar flood to the one in 2024.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="494" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Lele over the years. Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  United Cement’s manager Hari Upreti says his company has fulfilled all requirements and has permission to mine 15 hectares of its own property and 4 hectares of government land. “We have the Department of Mines permit which is valid till 2036 and extract 1,600 tons of limestone every day,” says Upreti. “The local community knew about the mining and if there is a problem with springs going dry it is not because of us.” Environmental researcher Uttambabu Shrestha, however, says there is a direct correlation between the quarry operation and floods, landslides and dry springs.&nbsp; “Extraction should not be allowed without an environmental impact assessment, and companies must stick to set limits,” he says. Investigation of permits show that there is collusion between local officials and contractors. Godavari-6 Chair Bishnuman Maharjan has investment in two quarries and crusher companies operating along Nallu Khola. A paper trail links Maharjan also to Sagarmatha Stone Crusher and Mankamana Aggregate Industries. IMPUNITY&nbsp; Godavari Municipality published a notice in June 2024, instructing crusher companies to submit environmental reports within two weeks, covering initial examination and impact assessment. It also told them to pay local development fees and clear outstanding dues. The municipality even wrote to the Department of Mines clarifying that it had issued permits to only five out of 27 contractors. Within a month, the Department wrote to the District Administration Office (DAO) and District Police Office instructing them to stop illegal excavation, and sent a copy to the Lalitpur Division Forest Office. The DAO then wrote to Lalitpur Police naming Machindranath Multipurpose as operating illegally and should be shut down. There was no followup. The municipality then issued fines worth Rs 60 million to it and one other company for non-compliance. The companies stalled, disputing the calculations.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2" data-rendition-name="original" width="4000" height="2250" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Another site of extraction near Mahadev Khola in Godavari. </figcaption> </figure>  Machhindranath Multipurpose operator Kedar Timalsina Shashi denies doing anything wrong, and says the landslides were collateral damage because of the steep terrain. When contacted Godavari Municipality Deputy Mayor Muna Adhikari declined to comment. It has been 10 years since Rajesh Shrestha, Nikesh Shrestha, and others raised their voices against the environmental destruction caused by the construction mafia. An agreement was finally reached two years ago between locals and mining and transport businessmen, stipulating that stone mines must close permanently by mid-2025. The agreement also stated that check dams must be built to manage mining debris, and damaged structures must be restored to their original state. Trees were to be planted at sites where stone mines had operated. But the mines in the catchment are still in operation with 500 tipper trucks working on the site every day, transporting stones and aggregate. Local youth have continued holding sit-in street protests and at Lalitpur DAO.&nbsp; After one sit-in, the mines closed for about a month but they started back up a month later.&nbsp; Birendra Maharjan owns one of the crusher units, and says he follows all environmental protocols. He told us: “You need stones to build, and we must dig to extract stones. Some trees have to be cut, people get employment, and besides, floods and landslides happen across Nepal.” &nbsp;&nbsp; Centre for Investigative Journalism – Nepal.

sushil-gyewali

Rebuilding five years after 2015 quake

Hired, fired, rehired

A dead tree tests Nepal's bureaucracy

Will it be different this time in Nepal?

People’s power

Loot in Lele