<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f899c7e80680e056e35jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"/><figcaption>All photos: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Nepali officials have prepared a wish-list of 11 projects for Chinese President Xi Jinping when he makes a state visit to Kathmandu this weekend, during which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a> is said to preparing to announce a ‘Big Surprise’.Parts of Kathmandu which President Xi will travel through during his visit on 12-13 October have got a hurried face-lift with streets being painted and swept, ungainly overhead wires bundled, and sidewalks festooned with flags and portraits of the leaders of the two countries.Nepal’s 11-point agenda for Xi Jinping include mainly infrastructure projects like new highways from Kathmandu to multiple points on the Chinese border, including to Rasuwa. But the surprise gift is expected to be an announcement on the extension of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tibet Railway from Kerung to Kathmandu</a>.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What China really wants, Editorial</a>Prime Minister KP Oli and Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali held a four-hour discussion with former prime ministers and officials in Baluwatar on Thursday during which they advised the government not to sell out the national interest to Beijing, and not to fall into a Chinese ‘debt trap’.The spokesman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Narayan Kaji Shrestha later explained that the primary agenda of the visit will be ‘connectivity’ with new crossborder roads in Kimathanka in eastern Nepal, the Korala border point in Mustang, repairs of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kodari</a> and Rasuwa highways that were destroyed in <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the 2015 earthquake. </a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f8d9c7e80680e056e36jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f919c7e80680e056e37jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730">However, officials said the really important announcement during the visit was going to be the 70km extension of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xigatse-Kerung railway line</a> under the Himalaya through a series of tunnels to Kathmandu. The Chinese side is said to be prepared to offer 70% of the project cost, with Rs3 billion being Nepal’s share.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral trains</a>, EditorialThe new railway and roads will fall under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is President Xi’s pet project to improve intercontinental land connectivity between China and Central Asia and on to Europe.Shrestha revealed that the primary features of the draft agreement with China could include:<ul style="font-weight: 400;"><li>Upgrading the Rasuwagadi checkpoint and road to Kathmandu.</li> <li>Repairs at the Tatopani checkpoint and road to Kathmandu.</li> <li>Construction of the Tokha-Chahare Tunnel.</li> <li>Setting up of the Madan Bhandari University.</li> <li>The Kosi Corridor highway to Kimathanka</li> <li>The Kali Gandaki Corridor to Korala</li> <li>Improvement in the Karnali Corridor to Hilsa</li></ul>Although some of these proposals are not new, the whole package if approved will represent a dramatic increase in China’s involvement in infrastructure projects in Nepal. Prime Minister Oli has made Xi’s state visit a prestige issue, which he hopes will bolster his party’s sagging public support – even if some of the projects, like the railway, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may still be decades away</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f949c7e80680e056e38jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296">Chinese officials had taken part in the Nepal Investment Summit in April and studied proposals from the Nepali side for the road and railways. President Bidya Devi Bhandari had also broached the subjects of the trans-Himalayan railway during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">her visit to China earlier this year</a>.Chinese and Nepali engineers have already discussed a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on the railway alignment which is said to prefer a tunnel under Langtang National Park rather than following the Bhote Kosi river from the border.The Americans have pointedly warned Nepal not to fall under the Chinese ‘debt trap’ like other countries in Africa and Sri Lanka. Washington has offered its own $500 million alternative connectivity project under the Millennium Challenge Corporation for highways and transmission lines, however this project is stuck because of US insistence that Nepal clear it with India first.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f979c7e80680e056e39jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296">Nepal has been trying to steer a careful <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">geo-political balance between China and the United States on the one hand, and with India on the other</a>. Foreign Minister Gyawali has gone to great lengths after a meeting with US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo last year to deny that Nepal is a member of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.China has been pushing Nepal to sign an extradition treaty somewhat like the one India has signed with Nepal and like the one it tried to push in Hong Kong. Such an agreement would affect the estimate 15,000 Tibetan exiles and refugees in Nepal. NCP Spokesman Shrestha admitted the subject was on the agenda for bilateral talks during the Xi visit, but that it would not be passed this time.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the west</a>, Bhairaja Pandey<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yam between three boulders</a>, EditorialThis is the first state visit by a Chinese President to Nepal after Jing Zemin’s visit in 1996, and the emphasis on ‘connectivity’ reflects Kathmandu’s desire to find alternative trans-Himalayan trade routes after <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India’s five-month blockade of its southern border in 2015</a> which wrecked the country’s economy.India has also been increasing its investments in hydropower and other infrastructure in Nepal, and recently handed over a 36km oil pipeline from the border to Amlekhganj to facilitate petroleum imports from India.Although Indian officials and media periodically voice suspicions about Chinese inroads into Nepal, Beijing is said to be averse to damaging its increasing trade ties with India over Nepal. Hence, even Xi Jinping’s itinerary this time to make his state visit to Kathmandu after his informal meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi near Chennai in southern India carries a message.

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What is Xi Jinping’s ‘Big Surprise’?

<figure><img width="1400" height="920" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e509c7e80680e04fcabjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>The trans-Himalayan railroad has been in the news lately. And like everything else in Nepal, it is difficult to separate hot air from a cool breeze. The Chinese cannot hide their irritation anymore about Nepal’s politicians day-dreaming. Ambassador Hou Yanqi was as blunt as a diplomat can be at a recent interaction in which she said (we paraphrase): “Not so fast.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29395&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dream Train</a>, Ramesh BhushalThe extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to Nyalam and Kerung, then onwards to Kathmandu, Lumbini and the Indian border constitutes a part of Beijing’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15892#.XRsdKz8za70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan</a>. But laying train tracks on the rugged terrain of the Tibetan Plateau has been a daunting challenge even for the Chinese.After the Lhasa line was connected to Xigatse and beyond, it was expected to reach <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung</a> on the Nepal border by the next year, but now it looks like it will be pushed back five more years. Yet Nepal’s hyperbolic politicians talk about it as if the locomotives will be chugging in by next Dasain.The railway to Nepal was listed as one of the 64 Belt Road Initiative (BRI) projects at the second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in April. The ambitious BRI aims to improve China’s overland connectivity to countries across its western border in Central Asia and beyond to even Europe. The Nepal link is not directly on the main line, but part of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/12/nepal-joins-new-silk-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sub-Silk Road</a> that could, in the future, offer an alternative to two-way trade between China and India, which today follows a maritime route through the Strait of Malacca.China is India’s largest source of imports, and it is in Beijing’s geostrategic interest to find land alternatives to choke points on its sea routes to the Indian Ocean. Two-way trade between India and China is now nearly $100 billion a year and a stable land corridor would be in both the countries’ interest. Besides that, China wants to integrate its southwestern regions of Tibet and Xinjiang with central and southern Asia.  But what does Nepal get out of the proposed rail link? First of all, theoretically, we can have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cheap and reliable alternative access</a> to sea ports. That Nepal needs this trade bypass is a no-brainer considering the five-month Indian Blockade of our southern border in 2015. Despite its initial cost, train travel is cheaper and environmentally much cleaner. A railway track through the mountains could interlink trade and tourist travel between the two countries, and be a catalyst for other train lines within Nepal. Nepal’s politicians, including Prime Minister K P Oli, came to power riding the nationalist wave after the Blockade, and promised better access to the north. But one just has to see the slow progress of the road on our side of the Rasuwa border today to realise that it was all talk. Whatever progress there has been in upgrading the checkpoints in Rasuwa and <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kodari</a>, or the dry port in Larcha, are being built by China in our territory.The biggest uncertainty about the trans-Himalayan railroad is who is going to pay for it, and if it will pay for itself. The 170km stretch from Kerung to Kathmandu will cost at least $5.5 billion. It is unlikely the Chinese will just gift the railroad, and a loan could be a debt trap. Unless Nepal’s exports to China rise dramatically, this railway will not make much economic sense.Nepal’s trade deficit with China is expected to grow to $15 billion this year, as imports rose by 40% and exports fell by 30%. A cargo train makes sense if we can use the wagons to send goods back to China, not just to buy more.China used its comparative advantage in the past to produce labour-intensive goods which it exported worldwide to buy knowhow. Now, China has attained an income level where some of those goods can be produced more cheaply elsewhere: like Nepal. In the 1990s, tax rebates attracted multinationals to set up manufacturing bases in Nepal for export to India. We do not have to reinvent the wheel.Greater connectivity between India and China through Nepal, however, could open a new trans-Himalayan trade corridor which can offer Nepal another chance to be a manufacturing base for specialised products to be sold to both our giant neighbours. But for that, we need a strategic vision and pragmatic policies. Nepal’s strategy should be to serve as a land bridge between India and China and get these two giant locomotives to pull in the same direction.10 years ago this weekNepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#458 of 3-9 July 2009</a> dealt with the Constitution deadline being only 11 months away, and the political parties paralysed by wrangling. Our<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16083#.XR7YWeszaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> editorial</a> blamed the fecklessness of the democratic parties and the Maoists wanting to go it alone:‘D Day for the completion of the new Constitution is now only 11 months away. The Constituent Assembly’s self-imposed deadline has been pushed back over and over again. Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal said after his Politburo meeting this week that his party will lead a national government. How that will be possible considering the non-Maoist parties are on the other side is difficult to imagine. Maybe the strategy is to split the big parties, but then domestic and international geo-politics are both against them. What the Maoists couldn’t achieve with armed struggle and elections, they will now try to do by mobilising a mass movement on the streets.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e539c7e80680e04fcacjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1242"></a>

TRILATERAL TRAINS

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What is Xi Jinping’s ‘Big Surprise’?

TRILATERAL TRAINS