Last month was a tragic reminder of just how unsafe travel in Nepal is, leading some experts to question if there is a mismatch between modern technology and a fatalistic culture. Dor Bahadur Bista tried to get to the bottom of this conundrum in 1991 in his seminal book, Fatalism and Development. It was an early attempt to see how an ‘everything goes’ attitude hindered <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">Nepal's socio-economic progress</a>.&nbsp; Since then, others have struggled to explain why Nepalis do not adhere to mandatory safety standards in technologies ranging from electricity to gas cylinders, and in road and aviation safety.&nbsp; It has been 30 years since author Kedar Sharma published his book आधुनिकतासँग सावधान (Beware of Modernity) in which he warned that Nepalis had not kept pace with advanced technology. “It gives me no pleasure to say that, tragically, this is still the case,” says Sharma, referring to the loss of life in recurring highway and aviation disasters.&nbsp; “We are careless about following rules in all spheres of life,” adds Sharma. “And this is made worse by our faith in fate which lends to our tendency to be reckless. Roads were supposed to be synonymous with development, but are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-deadly-roads-take-their-toll">now synonymous with death</a>. The quality of roads plays a big role in accidents, but we are culturally, administratively and legally negligent about safety.” Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/underpasses-to-reduce-roadkill-in-nepal?fbclid=IwAR0KntTDqdjk2YwmtQyTSkgh8wjtidPqx4LUNukUpYyT9-9SNO1fXzOA5ns">Underpasses to reduce roadkill in Nepal</a>, Tufan Neupane There has been much debate about regulatory failure in aviation that underlies frequent air crashes, and this was brought to the fore in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/unsafe-skies">last week’s Saurya Airlines crash</a> at Kathmandu airport in which 18 people lost their lives. That crash got much more attention than the disaster on the Mugling highway in which two buses were swept into the Trisuli River by a mudslide, killing 59. An investigation showed the flood was caused by debris from a poorly engineered road up the mountain that was washed down by a torrential downpour at night. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon">Managing the monsoon</a>, Ngamindra Dahal It is easy to blame accidents on Nepal’s terrain and weather, but there are deeper socio-cultural underpinnings that magnify these dangers. And the buck stops at the gate of government. There are other soft states like Nepal that also have harsh conditions, but do not suffer such frequent disasters.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240802050832_60c87a1a569467f65bab8cfe0f05766af368fc3cd5bbb3a934eb054e2abc3283.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240802050832_60c87a1a569467f65bab8cfe0f05766af368fc3cd5bbb3a934eb054e2abc3283" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="fatalism and fatalities NT"> <figcaption>Illustration: SUBASH RAI</figcaption> </figure>  The interface between technology and safety is not properly understood by most Nepalis: electric shocks and cooking gas disasters kill hundreds every year. There were 2,267 reported electrical accidents in the past five years, 60% of them fatal.&nbsp; More than 2,000 people died on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">Nepal’s roads and highways</a> in the past year, many times more than all natural disasters combined. “Accidents aren’t just accidents, they are linked to the governance of the country and reflect political failure,” says Vijay Lama, an A330 captain with Nepal Airlines. “We need serious, open and prolonged discussion between regulatory bodies, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/100-101-102-hh5uvzf9">service providers</a>, airline operators and pilots that look deep into the crux of the problem to come up with solutions.”&nbsp; Lama has been flying for nearly 40 years, logging 30,000 hours on various aircraft from Twin Otters and Boeing 757s to Airbuses.&nbsp; He says, “If flying is unsafe, I would be the first one to say so, but it is still the safest and most efficient mode of travel. Air crashes just get more media attention but after the news fades, we go back to doing what we did before.” The international community has taken note, mainly because their nationals are often involved. The European Commission (EC) has put all Nepal-based airlines on its <a href="https://transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/3195fabb-7575-4db9-85b9-ec5a77b481aa_en?filename=air-safety-list-2024-05-30_en.pdf">Air Safety List</a>, and the Saurya crash will surely hurt the chance of being taken off the list.&nbsp; One of the measures the EC has pushed is to separate the regulatory and operational functions of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN). Successive governments have not shown the political will to do so, and some doubt bifurcating CAAN will help since political interference will persist.&nbsp; Indeed, after every crash, CAAN sets up an investigation committee that issues recommendations. There is strict compliance, but only for a while. &nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/keeps-happening">Read also: Keeps happening&nbsp;</a> Blame for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously">making travel dangerous</a> ultimately has to do with a political culture that has failed to prioritise safety even when the country’s international image is tarnished, affecting the tourism industry. &nbsp; “We should look at each crash as a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/why-missing-planes-are-so-difficult-to-find-in-nepal">systemic failure</a>,” explains Ajaya Dixit, whose physician father perished in a Pilatus PC-6 crash in 1962 sent to investigate a previous crash in Dhorpatan of a DC-3 flying to New Delhi from Kathmandu. Nepal’s ambassador to India and two high ranking US officials were among the 10 victims. &nbsp;&nbsp; He adds: “Modern technologies are all imported, they didn’t evolve in our society. We lack a larger technological ethos in their operation, management, maintenance. Our commitment to technological discipline is low, cutting corners is accepted.”&nbsp; Indeed, travel safety cannot be an island of efficiency when the entire <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/democracy-s-sidekicks">political machinery of the country</a> is dysfunctional. And like other sectors, there is a culture of impunity here too. Human rights campaigner Sushil Pyakurel sums it up: “No one is suspended after crashes. The bus accident is no one’s responsibility because a landslide caused it. Unless those responsible are held to account, accidents will keep happening, people will continue to die.” &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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Fatalism and fatalities

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22ff9c7e80680e0417c1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>Photos: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure><ul><li>At least seven people were killed when a bus heading to Narayangad from Beni lost control and fell 70m from the road down to the Kali Gandaki River in Kusma Municipality of Parbat district on Thursday.</li> <li>A bus plunge from a crumbling highway in Tulsipur last month killed 22 and maimed 15 -- most of them students and teachers from a technical school in Ghorahi on a field trip.</li> <li>A mini truck skidded off a dirt tract in Nuwakot and plunged several hundred meters in Dupcheshwar rural municipality on 14 December, killing 22 out of the 40 on board the lorry. The passengers were returning home to Sisipu after performing funeral rites for a fellow villager.</li> <li>In just one day that week, Devi Prasad Rai of Kerabari in Morang lost his life when a bus hit him near a fuel station. Dhan Prasad Giri, 63, and his 29-year-old son were killed by an Indian-registered truck. Nirmala Karki of Gauradaha of Jhapa was hit by a school bus and died.</li></ul><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-PxGlE" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PxGlE/1/" height="549" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>In the past five months alone, 1,176 people have been killed across Nepal in what police call ‘road traffic accidents’ (RTA). This is an increase from last year, and with more vehicles driven by negligent drivers on poorly-built roads, fatalities have <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/maps-showing-increase-in-road-accident-fatality-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gone up sharply in the past decade</a>.The district-wise data of total fatalities from 16 July 2017 were collected by a Nepali Times team over two days this week, and shows that the majority of road traffic mishaps have occured in crowded urban areas in the Tarai and Kathmandu Valley. But even Dolpo has had three serious accidents, killing 20 since the first roads were built four years ago.In the last 10 years, 22,461 lost their lives in RTA, according to Nepal Police. While most were men, women made up 3,577 of the fatalities, and of the total, 2,440 were men and women below 18 years of age.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/traffic-accidents-continue-to-increase-worryingly-in-Nepal,2799" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Road kill</a>, Surendra Phuyal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/accident-prone-Mugling-Narayangadi-highway,3828" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Unblocking an artery</a>, Sanjeev SharmaPolice records blame 95% of accidents in Nepal on negligence of drivers. Mechanical failure, poor road condition, careless pedestrians and bad weather accounted for the rest. However, even though over-speeding, over-loading are major causes, the number of accidents caused by poor road maintenance, and the presence of animals and pedestrians on highways are probably under-reported.This means the blame ultimately goes to lax Police monitoring, and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/traffic-accidents-continue-to-increase-worryingly-in-Nepal,2799" target="_blank" rel="noopener">government apathy</a> in completing road construction and maintaining minimum safety standards.The Department of Transport Management, the governing body responsible for safe and reliable transportation does not even seem to acknowledge that road safety is its responsibility, taking an ‘accidents happen’ attitude.<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-gIV87" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gIV87/1/" height="400" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-espux" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/espux/6/" height="400" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-ED7Lj" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ED7Lj/2/" height="393" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>There is no effort to enforcing and implementing existing laws to ensure safety, and none of the officials interviewed for this article appeared to recognise that the rising number of road traffic accidents was a national emergency that needed a strategy for mitigation.Article 257 of the Vehicle and Transport Management Act 1993 authorised the Department of Transport Management to appoint transport supervisors to fine or seize driving license of individuals violating traffic rules.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/cartel-carnage-highway,3243" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Highways of death</a>, Santa Gaha Magar<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/maps-showing-increase-in-road-accident-fatality-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6 years of road traffic accidents</a>, Sunir PandeyBut 26 years on, not a single transport supervisor has been appointed. Article 67 of the Act also clearly states that the co-drivers also need to obtain licenses from the Department, but none has been issued so far, admits Tirtha Khanal, head of the Vehicle Monitoring and Provincial Coordination Division.“We are a small five-person office. It is impossible for us to monitor such a huge number of vehicles in Nepal,” said Khanal. There are more than 3.2 million motorcycles, cars and trucks registered across Nepal and the figure is growing exponentially.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23029c7e80680e0417c2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Act further states that all vehciles must have passed pollution tests and possess a vehicle inspection report, and drivers are required to take a half-an-hour of break after four hours on the road. Passenger vehicles are also restricted from carrying more people than the total number of seats, and long-distance vehicles should have two drivers with change in shift after 6 hours.In March 2018, the government amended the Vehicle and Transport Management Rules and banned buses older than 20 years. But eight months later, these polluting old vehicles are still on the roads.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/lack-of-trauma-centres-along-nepal%C3%A2%E2%82%AC%E2%84%A2s-highways-worsened-fatality-rate,1383" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Highways of death</a>, Sunir Pandey<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-road-kill,621" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Road kill</a>, Duncan MaruThe Department of Transport Management spent Rs60 million to build the Vehicle Fitness Test Centre in Teku in April 2017. Built to originally conduct a complete health check-up of vehicles including emissions, and condition of brakes, chassis, headlights, spring balance and wheel load, most of the testing equipment do not work and the tests cannot be carried out.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23059c7e80680e0417c3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="800">“At the moment we are only able to do emission tests, and fasten loose bolts, most of the equipment do not work and we don’t have plans to repair it anytime soon either,” says Chief Engineer Ramchandra Paudel bluntly, as if it is no one’s responsibility. There are no vehcole test stations outside Kathmandu Valley.The only good news is that the number of drink driving cases and fatalities caused by them have gone down significantly in Kathmandu Valley. Called ‘MaPaSe’ by its Nepali acronym, the Police’s campaign against driving under the influence of alcohol has saved thousands of lives since 2012.  Between July 2017- June 2018 there were 32,234 men and 58 women drivers who failed breath analyser tests.On a daily basis, 1,500 traffic police officers work to manage the traffic in Kathmandu Valley and in the last five months they penalised 185,436 individuals for violating traffic rules -- 1,236 per day. Similarly, 472,407 vehicle drivers and owners were fined in the last fiscal year.A whopping 3 million people have been penalised for violating various traffic rules in the last 5 years and this has resulted in the government earning more than Rs1.238 billion.

Nepal’s deadly roads take their toll

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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The magic 138