<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161120/636922949c7e80680e03a137jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>PICS: RESPONSIBLE ADVENTURES</figcaption></figure>Widespread international coverage of an <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Insurance,361" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insurance scam</a> in Nepal that involves some helicopter companies, private hospitals and trekking agencies has hurt the country’s image abroad, and impacted an industry just recovering from the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake</a>.Nepal’s government, in responding to an AFP exposé of malpractice earlier this year, may have made things worse with a slapdash report that accuses everyone of being in on the scam.There is evidence that some trek organisers, hospitals and helicopter companies in Nepal connived to create fake medevacs of trekkers, or sometimes deliberately made hikers sick, so that they could collect and share insurance compensation.Insurance watchdog <a href="https://www.travellerassist.co/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Traveller Assist</a> claimed its own investigations showed that 35% of the 1,600 helicopter rescues in Nepal this year were fraudulent, costing up to $4 million. The company said it had intercepted and stopped 160 of the claims. The cost was serious enough for some international travel insurers to give the Nepal government till September to do something about it.Reacting to the ultimatum, the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation formed a fact-finding committee last month to investigate how insurance companies had been defrauded with fake medical bills and fake rescues, with kickbacks sometimes being shared with trekkers who pretended to be sick.Only four pages of the aforementioned report were leaked to the media, naming 13 companies allegedly involved in the scam, including three helicopter operators, four hospitals and eight trekking agencies. It went so far as to make the impractical suggestion that only the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-army-inc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Army</a> conduct helicopter mountain rescues.“The investigation itself needs to be investigated, the findings were as fake as the scams that were probed,” stated Rajendra Bahadur Singh of the Airline Operators Association of Nepal. He added that airlines were never asked about the questionnaires they filled out or data provided about their rescues. “What kind of investigation was this, without any follow up, only conclusions based on assumptions?” Singh asked.There is speculation the investigation was conducted to target selected companies while letting the real <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19147#.W6N5TM4zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">culprits off the hook</a>. A trekking company founder Nepali Times spoke with feared the process had tarnished companies which are not after kickbacks as guilty, while influential people with political protection would walk free.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161120/636922979c7e80680e03a138jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="851">Ethical trekking outfits, transparently-run hospitals and helicopter companies that follow rules appear to have all been lumped together with the fraudsters.“The rot goes right to the top, so they will make a few examples of the small fries, while the big fish will keep doing what they were doing,” the source said.One of the hospitals named in the committee report is <a href="http://ciwec-clinic.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CIWEC Hospital</a> which mainly treats expats and tourists in its clinics in Kathmandu and Pokhara. Medical director Prativa Pandey hosted a media briefing recently to clarify her hospital’s stand.“All we have done is take care of patients who come to us or who are sent to us by insurance companies, Nepal should be proud of its helicopter rescue pilots who put their own lives at risk to save lives,” Pandey said.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161120/636922999c7e80680e03a139jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="519">Pilots and their machines are working at their performance extremes in the topography and high altitude of the Himalaya. Last week, Capt Nischal KC, a veteran of many daring mountain rescues, was killed with five others when his chopper hit a forested mountainside in Nuwakot.Pandey said the report has implicated parties, sullying hospitals like hers, with the mainstream media labelling everyone guilty without due process. Releasing only parts of the report, implicating certain companies and hospitals and not being consistent with facts, was a trial by media “based on assumptions and predjudice”.Rajendra Bahadur Singh, also managing director of <a href="http://mtnhelicopters.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mountain Helicopters</a>, agrees: “Those companies listed in the report have had their names tainted, who will take the blame and compensate them?”The negative publicity has already led to some cancellations by trekking groups booked for the autumn season.It is not just the companies but Nepal’s international image that has been smeared. Trekking agencies in Pokhara say they have been getting cancellations from groups already booked for the autumn season.<h4>How to commit insurance fraud</h4><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161120/6369229c9c7e80680e03a13ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050">More than 10% of the 900,000 visitors to Nepal last year went <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/trekking-in-nepal-booming-but-face-stiff-competition-from-underpricing-and-road-network,1703" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trekking</a>. With such a large number on the move, altitude sickness, infections and accidental falls are frequent. Since <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/trekking-trails-not-as-empty-as-expected,2676" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trekking routes</a> are usually remote, hikers in genuine emergencies are evacuated by helicopters to Kathmandu. Nepal has an advanced rescue network.Most rescued trekkers are really sick. But it is often difficult to determine whether hikers suffering from Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS) will get better by descending or if they need to be medevaced. Since there is room to fudge it, greed and competition has brought together some private helicopter companies and hospitals to cheat with false claims.In 1989, there were 75 rescues per 100,000 trekking permits. By 2000 the number had soared to 373 per 100,000. In the past year, there were 3,000 rescues per 100,000 trekkers. (See graph)“From a medical point of view, the most challenging aspect of helicopter rescues is confirming the need for rescue after the person is back in Kathmandu … the rescue may have been totally legitimate, and yet the patient may have improved dramatically since the moment the rescue was requested,” wrote Prativa Pandey in 2013, in a prescient article for for the Himalayan Rescue Association magazine.“Financial reward for requesting a helicopter rescue could certainly be an added incentive.”Pandey is a physician at CIWEC, which treats many sick tourists, and says the threshold for heli-evacuation has decreased substantially since domestic aviation was commercialised. Before 1990, all rescues were performed by Royal Nepal Army.Studies have shown that there has not been an increase in the proportion of trekkers suffering from AMS, but the numbers of rescues of trekkers with altitude sickeness has soared. Most symptoms can be alleviated by descent, while more serious pulmonary or cerebral oedema require emergency rescue.However, a Nepali Times investigation showed that there are trek leaders who insist on a chopper rescue at the slightest complaint of headache or nausea. Some helicopter companies are partly owned by private hospitals in Kathmandu, and the fake <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/insurance-post-earthquake,2646" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insurance </a>claims are shared, and kickbacks offered.One trekking agent who helicoptered a genuinely sick client from Khumbu to a well-known private hospital in Kathmandu last year was taken aside and offered an envelope containing Rs150,000 in cash – he was told it was his ‘commission’ for bringing the patient.This spring, a trekking group leader on Island Peak ordered a helicopter from Kathmandu to evacuate a sick trekker. The pilot brought along 10kg of unsolicited chicken as goodwill payment for the rescue. Trekking groups say such ‘bribes’ are standard operating procedure.There are horror stories about some trekking guides deliberately making clients sick by contaminating their food. But there are also lazy trekkers who do not want to walk back, so pretend to be sick and are helicoptered out with the active connivance of their agency. Stiff competition, undercutting in the tourism business, and the slim margins for helicopter companies, has made insurance scams too tempting for some to resist.Private hospitals offering kickbacks to helicopter companies is just an extension of their standard practice of paying ambulance drivers who bring patients to the emergency.There have been many heroic rescues in the Nepal Himalaya. Airlines have invested in high performance helicopters that can make rescues up to 6,500m. Many hikers and mountaineers would have died if the option were not there. During the 2015 earthquake, 140 climbers were rescued from above the Khumbu Icefall on Mt Everest. In 2010 three Spaniards were winched up by long-line at 6,950m on Annapurna IV.Such necessary rescues are now in jeopardy because of a few unscrupulous operators. The government, which should regulate the business, has botched its investigation by implicating everyone, but punishing no one.<h4>Frequent fliers</h4>Here are some ways unnecessary helicopter rescues are organised for fake insurance claims:1 Trekkers too lazy to walk back the same way down pretend to be sick, and with active connivance of their trekking agency, order a helicopter ‘rescue’.2 Trekkers with mild symptoms of altitude sickness are persuaded or pressured to be choppered out to Kathmandu.3 Unscrupulous trekking groups contaminate food, or force group to climb faster than recommended so they get sick.4 Hospitals offer kickbacks to trekking groups and lodges which fly patients to them. Some hospitals own shares in helicopter companies and vice-versa.5 Overcharging for helicopter rescues.6 Hospitals ordering unnecessary tests so billing is heftier.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kleptocrats-of-kathmandu-and-kualalampur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kleptocrats of Kathmandu and Kuala Lumpur</a><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19077#.W6N5yM4zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rescue in the Himalaya</a><h2>Reader's response</h2>Allow me to add some information to readers about the development of unnecessary rescues in Nepal.When climbing near Langtang in 1976, the lack of dependable communication required the support team to be able to physically carry someone out (or, at least, to a lower altitude) rather than waiting too many days for a helicopter to come. The required extra level of self preparedness was not guaranteed, as it meant more expenses and many groups were unwilling or unable to do that.Even in 1981, while instructing at the Nepal Mountaineering School in Manang, a severely ill trekker whom we accidentally stumbled across,necessitated my borrowing the Pradhan Panch’s horse to ride in haste to Humde Airstrip, where the Police Post havildar had to pedal on an‘exercise cycle’ to power the telegraph and request heli-aid from Kathmandu and, somehow to guarantee payment from a dying patient (I covered that with assistance of my colleagues). The flight, with weatherissues, happened only 4 days later. It was, literally, borderline survival for the trekker.As from the mid 1990s, heli-rescues began to be shared by the military with private operators and new helicopters were enabled to go to higher altitudes. This period inchoated a gradual change in high altitude rescues. Like the advent of the cross-country ski patrol in Canada, many users of the hills now felt it less necessary to be as prepared as before, as rescues were relatively easy to obtain. Rescue flight insurance was now de rigeur and, as with most policies and regulations in any country or company, some people devise ways to circumvent and misuse facilities and services.From my experience of having been on 12 climbs in Nepal, plus years of work in high altitude regions, the reasons noted in the article are all correct. Naturally some aspect could happen only with certain individuals or companies; but, by and large, all the possibilities on the cyclicalpicture have been or can be present.In one of my consultancies, with the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation in 1994, I had been requested to look into and report on the establishment of a comprehensive rescue/medical system in tourist areas. One of my recommendations at that time was improved and mandatory training for local guides, monitoring of credentials of foreign leaders, clarity on the decision-making process when there is both a local as well as an expatriate leader. And ethics must be an element of any training with the tourism industry.-Ivan Somlai

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Heli rescue fraud tarnishes Nepal’s image

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

trekking-sickness

Heli rescue fraud tarnishes Nepal’s image

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138