<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d03449c7e80680e0a36c2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="835" height="330"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>In the days of the absolute monarchy, every government appointment, promotion in the civil service, and ambassadorship had to be approved by the Royal Palace. Powerful secretaries in Narayanhiti decided all important matters, while Singha Darbar was tasked mainly with carrying out orders.Nepal became a constitutional monarchy after the 1990 People’s Movement, but not much changed. Instead of the king making decisions, many mini-kings competed for power and influence – political appointments in the bureaucracy, public sector enterprises, and diplomatic assignments became the norm.The Nepali Congress and the UML were such fierce rivals in the 1990s that it was mandatory for one party to cancel and declare null and void all decisions made by the other. That tradition has not just carried on to this day, but has been honed into a fine art.The most glaring example of this was the axe that fell last week on 12 of Nepal’s ambassadors politically appointed by K P Oli while prime minister. Among them were envoys to India, China, the United States, and Britain – countries most important to Nepal.Among those being recalled are former finance minister Yubaraj Khatiwada in Washington DC last year, Mahendra Bahadur Pandey in Beijing, Lok Darshan Regmi in London, and Nilambar Acharya in New Delhi.Oli rigged the system to reward loyalists, and the coalition government of Sher Bahadur Deuba wants to do the same. This is taking partisanship and vendetta to extreme levels.Deuba also needs these diplomatic postings to appease coalition partners who have not got powerful ministerial portfolios they were angling for. Two months after it took office, Deuba has not even been able to form a full government because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/government-in-installments/">tussles within the coalition for key ministerships.</a>Deuba appointed Narayan Khadka as foreign minister last week, only because someone had to lead the Nepal delegation to the United Nations General Assembly. It is clear that the recalled ambassadors will not be replaced with career diplomats, which is what should be the practice.Four of the 22 ambassadors are being recalled at a critical foreign policy juncture for Nepal. Nilamber Acharya has been in Delhi through the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lines-on-a-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">turbulent Limpiyadhura dispute</a> and his contacts in the Indian government would have been useful when so many bilateral issues are pending. Recalling our ambassador in China at this time sends the wrong message to Beijing as well.Yubaraj Khatiwada was a staunch supporter of the American <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/sino-nepal-ties-in-the-post-afghan-era/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project</a> when he was the finance minister under K P Oli. Despite regime change in Nepal, Prime Minister Deuba would have needed an MCC-backer in Washington while the clock ticks on the project’s ratification by Parliament. Deuba has also removed Nepal’s ambassador in London just before he goes to Glasgow in November to attend the Climate Summit.Prime Minister Deuba may have thought he could mute criticism of his ambassadors recall because he also called back his mother-in-law Prativa Rana from Tokyo. Her term had run out, and she was returning anyway.Among the 12 ambassadors being recalled are three <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-women-envoys-make-a-mark/">other women ambassadors</a> who have played important roles during the Covid-19 crisis ensuring the welfare of Nepalis abroad, mobilising aid for Nepal during the deadly second wave earlier this year, and projecting the country’s image abroad.Ambassador Sarmila Parajuli Dhakal in Oman has earned effusive praise from Nepali migrant workers in the Gulf not just for organising the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-struggles-to-make-repatriation-easier/">repatriation of stranded Nepalis</a>, but also bargaining with airlines for air fares even cheaper than those negotiated by the government in Kathmandu.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/">Ambassador Anjan Shakya</a> in Israel negotiated the agreement for 1,000 new caregiver jobs – most of them for Nepali women. She was working on a Nepal-Israel agricultural cooperation agreement.  Last year, Shakya was the first Asian envoy in Tel Aviv to be named ‘Ambassador of the Year’ by the Ambassadors’ Club of Israel.Ambassador Dawa Phuti Sherpa in Spain <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/">mobilised one of the first relief flights</a> in May to bring oxygen concentrators and cylinders, ventilators, and medical kits through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. She was preparing for a post-Covid revival of tourism in Nepal.A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/man-power/">patriarchal state</a> that is so self-obsessed that it cannot appreciate the role of these remarkable women ambassadors does not deserve respect from its citizens, nor from the international community.

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Swapping ambassadors midway

<figure><img width="918" height="645" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d07c59c7e80680e0a5fdbjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepali Times issues #53 (27 July-2 August 2001) and #67 (9-15 November 2001).</figcaption></figure>Sher Bahadur Deuba became Nepal’s prime minister last week, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-accidental-prime-minister/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-accidental-prime-minister/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748497000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOKQcVt5lo_DELvBty5qp0r8cv0A">won a confidence vote</a> in the House on 18 July. This is familiar terrain for a man who has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBd1bSpQFQVPzpLxHDrFZMfDSSkQ">on this road four times before</a> in the last 26 years.And so have we, here at Nepali Times. Combing through our archives, we dug up the reports, commentaries and cartoons from the past 20 years about Deuba’s previous tenures as prime minister.Few national leaders are offered so many chances to get it right. Yet, as we can see from his past tenures including this one, Deuba has struck when the iron is hot to manoeuvre himself to prime ministership. However, there have not been too many examples of successful governance that stand out.And we hear that Deuba’s astrologers have told him he will be prime minister two more times after this!When Deuba became prime minister for the first time in 1995-97, it was still looking like the restoration of democracy and open economy would allow the country to finally take a great leap forward. Foreign Direct Investment was flowing in. His high-profile wife, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7457" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D7457&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHa4EJo-FajMullZm-SYyZRDjxzZw">Arzoo Deuba</a>, was a key link to the international community.Local elections were beginning to devolve political power to the grassroots, ensuring more accountability and spurring development. But that was when the Maoists decided that parliamentary democracy was too slow to bring an end to a feudal monarchy.Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai handed Deuba a 40-point demand (that included end to Gurkha recruitment and ban on Hindi movies) and an unrealistic deadline of a week to fulfil them. This was essentially a declaration of war, and sure enough on 13 February 1996 the Maoists launched their armed struggle. Deuba ignored the insurgency, and treated it like a law and order issue. But when he finally acted, it was to get the police to launch campaigns code named Kilo Sierra 1 and 2. Ordinary people in the western mountains were terrorised, and this drove them into the Maoist fold.During his <a style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6685#.YPVWlS9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D6685%23.YPVWlS9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEga2JokpL9JKkRFJZEoI4FOI5gFg">second term</a> as prime minister in 2001-02 following the massacre of the royal family, the army was dragged into war and casualties escalated. More people were killed in the year after the Royal Nepal Army joined the conflict than in the previous six years. <figure><img width="1202" height="619" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d07c89c7e80680e0a5fdcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Nepali Times issues #199 (4-10 June 2004), #229 (7-13 January 2005) and #859 (9-15 May 2017).</figcaption></figure>In 2002, Deuba dissolved Parliament (much like Oli did this year) declared a state of emergency and was eventually sacked by King Gyanendra who in a televised address called his prime minister “incompetent”.  The king used and disposed of Deuba like a raggedy doll, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2494#.YPVV7y9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2494%23.YPVV7y9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6v6VTP1eVpde_WfbZsNbHb2MUrA">bringing him back</a> as prime minister for his third time (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2548#.YPVXJy9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2548%23.YPVXJy9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOoqiHiKJ4_feVzIVbcWnbGGDW3A">2004-05</a>) and then promptly putting him under house arrest for corruption after he staged <a href="http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1260#.WS_1fZJ97Dc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1260%23.WS_1fZJ97Dc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEL0XfIiAV9awGFULZ3UgBg9QnCCA">a royal-military coup</a> on 1 February 2005. Despite the ignominy, Deuba kept <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/dahal-deuba-oli,3151" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/dahal-deuba-oli,3151&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFPICQ_VeXEU5l9gJkJpAzdZ8xPnw">resurrecting himself</a>. He returned to Baluwatar after 12 years in 2017 after consolidating his grip over the Nepali Congress and cobbling a coalition with the Maoists. Being prime minister between two phases of the election, Deuba after much bargaining with Dahal handed over the Home Ministry to the Maoists. He must have had a strong sense of déjà vu when he had to undertake <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/pm-deuba-iv,3745" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/pm-deuba-iv,3745&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEU8RxRsa5FbgFypOpxoszBOJTtTw">identical negotiations</a> last week with Pushpa Kamal Dahal over the Cabinet. This time, not to repeat the mistake and with an eye on the 2023 elections, Deuba kept the Home Ministry but had to relinquish Finance to the Maoists. Now that he has won the vote in the House, there will be more parties to reward and appease with ministerial posts. There are no permanent friends and foes in politics. But it is an irony of ironies that Deuba is now at the helm with the help of 'Prachanda' who tried to assassinate him, and on whose head he had announced a ransom during the conflict. The return of Sher Bahadur Deuba signifies a break from the paralysing power struggle that prevented the Oli administration from addressing the people’s everyday concerns during the pandemic. The confidence vote this week also saves the exchequer an estimated Rs100 billion for an early election that will now not be needed. And because this is essentially an election government, Deuba will have to get his disparate coalition to perform and deliver like never before. If he can maintain discipline in the Cabinet, showcase transparency, make breakthroughs in vaccination, job creation and disaster relief, voters may take kindly to him. The signs are not good. Even before he won the vote, Deuba got his Nepali Congress colleague Bijya Kumar Gachhedar who had been convicted of corruption released on bail, and he has vowed to release another party member, Aftab Alam, who is in jail for murder. With this kind of track record, and given that this is a coalition with the Maoist Centre, we cannot expect meaningful progress on transitional justice for the victims of the conflict either.  If the Deuba government behaves like it has before, it will only give the UML the chance to exploit the NC's incumbency disadvantage to return to power in 2023.

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Deuba's denouement

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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Swapping ambassadors midway

Deuba's denouement

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138