<figure><img width="800" height="478" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddd9c7e80680e0a0c0ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Leaders of Oli-led UML gather for a photo after a Standing Committee meeting on 24 August. Photo: PRADEEP GYAWALI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Election Commission on Wednesday evening officially recognised and certified Madhav Kumar Nepal’s UML (Socialist) and Mahanta Thakur’s Loktantrik Samajwadi (LSP) parties. Nepal’s disagreement with K P Oli ended up <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">splitting Nepal’s largest party</a>,  even though Oli has managed to woo back a dozen or so of the most influential Nepal-backers. In almost identical but reverse symmetry, Thakur had sided with Oli, and that too ended up splitting his JSP so that he had to form a new one. The registration of two new political parties has taken the total number of political parties in Nepal to 97. However, the way political leaders including <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deubas-long-and-winding-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Deuba</a>, and Oli when he was head of government, bent constitutional rules to suit their short-term power games does not bode well for Nepal’s democracy, and future governance. Earlier on Wednesday, 59 lawmakers from the UML had identified themselves in favour of the UML (Socialist) at the Election Commission, while 14 MPs from the JSP were verified for the LSP. <figure><img width="800" height="473" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddf9c7e80680e0a0c0bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Madhav Kumar Nepal and other leaders arrived at the Election Commission on Wednesday to verify for the Nepal-led UML (Socialist) party. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The two new entities were able to split from their mother parties after Prime Minister Deuba of the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bypassed the Constitution with an ordinance</a> last week allowing political parties to split with only 20% support from the Central Committee and the parliamentary parties.To do this, Parliament had to be adjourned despite a crucial budget debate. But he needed to go through with it to accommodate Nepal’s group in his five-party alliance government as a reward for mutinying against Oli, and bringing down his government in June.Most political moves have something to do with elections in mind, and these power dynamics are also dictated by polls. Some see Deuba’s move to split Nepal’s largest party, the UML, as a shrewd move ahead of polls scheduled for 2023.But Sher Bahadur Deuba also got badly exposed for hypocrisy. In 2020, he had spoken out vehemently against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">K P Oli’s attempt to pass a similar ordinance</a>, and his ordinance was sharply criticised across the political aisle, including from within his own NC. These new circumstances will not only impact how the UML and JSP will move forward, but have far-reaching consequences for Nepal’s political and parliamentary processes. Cabinet expansionIt has been 40 days since he assumed office, but Deuba seems to be in no particular hurry to expand his Cabinet beyond just the four ministers he has from the Maoists and his own NC. However, we have word that he is working behind the scenes, trying to divide up ministerial positions, balance competing demands from his five-party alliance that propelled him to prime ministership <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for the fifth time</a>.  <figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfde29c7e80680e0a0c0cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal attend newly-appointed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's oath of office in July. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>There is no doubt that his ordinance move was meant to facilitate his ally Madhav Nepal’s participation in government. NC leaders admit that Deuba will move to fill the Cabinet quickly now that the UML split is official.  "We had been waiting for Madhav Nepal," says NC joint general secretary and close Deuba confidante Prakash Sharan Mahat, “the cabinet should now be complete within the next couple of days.” UML (Socialist) leader Veduram Bhusal says that although there has not been a formal decision to join Deuba’s government, the party will remain in the coalition.  “Madhav Nepal played a significant role in forming the current government, and the government is even stronger now that our party has been officially recognised,” he said. Parliament serves a full term In July, Deuba received 165 votes in Parliament to pass the floor test, including from 22 lawmakers from the Nepal faction of the UML and surprisingly, from the entire pro-Oli Mahanta Thakur faction within the JSP.  That Deuba got that support beyond the required simple majority of 138 votes increased the likelihood that Parliament will after all be able to serve its full term after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/supreme-court-puts-nepal-politics-back-on-track/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli dissolved it twice</a> amid fierce infighting within his party. Possible UML reunification The UML was established in 1990 after the unity of two communist parties and had split once before in 1997 only to be reunited three years later.  So, there is still a slight possibility that history will be repeated. Indeed, as Madhav Nepal moves forward with his rump party, Oli has also been planning his next political move.  The former prime minister has been stepping up party activities standing shoulder to shoulder with his enemies and staunch former Madhav Nepal allies like Bhim Rawal, Astalaxmi Shakya, Surendra Pandey, Ghanshyam Bhusal, Yogesh Bhattarai, Gokarna Bista, and Raghuji Pant. These gentlemen, and one lady, obviously saw their electoral prospects would be brighter if they remained in the original UML with Oli. New electoral alliances Besides negotiations on government formation, leaders of the Maoist (Centre), UML (Socialist), and JSP have already begun to explore the possibility of forming an electoral alliance ahead of the polls in 2023.  In fact, political analyst Shyam Shrestha believes that Mohan Baidha and Netra Bikram Chand factions of the Maoists could also join the alliance if Madhav Nepal’s party “adopts a slightly more revolutionary path”. Considering the similar ideological backgrounds of leaders like Upendra Yadav, Baburam Bhattarai, Ashok Rai, Mahendra Rai Yadav, and Rakam Chemjong, a ‘socialist’ alliance indeed looks possible —at least on paper.  However, the implosion of the ambitious UML-Maoist (Centre) merger into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) that barely lasted three years has made leftist leaders wary of forging similar marriages of convenience. Says Giriraj Mani Pokhrel of the Maoists (Centre): “The UML and the Maoist (Centre) have both learned that unity is only possible if all parties involved are on the same page regarding political, ideological and organisational issues, and that such a meeting of minds lasts.” Transliteration by Shristi Karki from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125597">Himal Khabar original</a> in Nepali.

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Nepal’s post-breakup politics

<figure><img width="2777" height="2385" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd6c9c7e80680e0a0be3jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>A month after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-court-orders-deuba-to-succeed-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">downfall of his government</a>, K P Oli's inability to keep his party together is still rocking Nepal's larger politics with aftershocks.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-accidental-prime-minister/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> has repeated transgressions of his predecessor to allow political parties to split through ordinance -- exactly the sin his five-party alliance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">accused Oli of committing</a> to oust him.Deuba ended the Parliament session, the budget debate be damned, just so that he could get President Bidya Devi Bhandari to sign the ordinance that that will now allow his ally Madhav Kumar Nepal to form a new party.The ordinance allows political parties to split even if only 20% of the Central Committee and the parliamentary party support it — obviously meant to allow Madhav Nepal’s UML (Socialist) party to break away from Oli’s mainstream UML so it can join the government.But Deuba’s move has been condemned across the political spectrum, including from within his own Nepali Congress (NC) where there was scathing rebuke from senior members.  ‘It doesn’t matter who does it, it is wrong to pass an ordinance like this in a democracy. It was wrong then, and it is wrong now,’ the NC’s Gagan Thapa posted on Twitter. ‘Anyone who stood against Oli’s moves back then has no right to support it at this time.’ The NC’s Shekhar Koirala described his own boss’ decision to end the Parliament session to directly influence the division of another political party as being ‘against the culture of the Nepal Congress’.  <blockquote>संसद अधिवेशन हठात अन्य गरेर संसद छल्दै अध्यादेश ल्याउनु गलत!हिजो गलत,आज गलत,सधैं गलत,जसले गरेपनि गलत 👎️ हिजो ओलीले ल्याउँदा गलत भन्ने,त्यसको विरुद्धमा उभिने कसैलाई पनि आज समर्थन गर्ने हक छैन/हुँदैन।समर्थन गर्ने भए त्यतिवेला विरोध गरेकोमा सार्वजनिक माफी माग्नुपर्छ।— Gagan Thapa (@thapagk) <a href="https://twitter.com/thapagk/status/1427831835984236547?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 18, 2021</a></blockquote> Experts agree that ordinances passed to serve short-term partisan interests will have far-reaching consequences for Nepal’s political and parliamentary processes. “The prime minister passed this ordinance allowing parties to split with just 20% support, what if in future other ordinances bring down the required votes to 10%, or even 5%,” asks political analyst Puranjan Acharya. Oli seems to have gotten wind of Deuba’s move, and on Tuesday expelled 14 party members including Madhav Nepal before that could happen. That sealed the fate of the UML.“We tried our best until the final moment to keep the party united, but K P Oli closed the door,” Nepal said at a virtual public sector meeting on Tuesday.However, Deuba’s supporters in the party saw it as a shrewd move to split the powerful UML so that his party would be better placed in elections in 2023.Nepal moved quickly on Wednesday to register his CPN-UML (Socialist) at the Election Commission with 95 Central Committee members, 58 among which have switched over with him from Oli’s UML.However, popular second-echelon leaders like Bhim Rawal, Gokarna Bista and Ghanashyam Bhusal, who had been mediating between the two leaders, have not joined Nepal’s new party. They appear to have feared a backlash for supporting the NC, and also seen better prospects in elections if they stayed on in the UML. <img width="2106" height="1320" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd6f9c7e80680e0a0be4jpeg.jpg" alt="">Ironically, Deuba’s ordinance seems to have also directly benefited Mahanta Thakur, who had also been demoted from the JSP’s Central Committee for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/going-down-with-the-ship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">supporting Oli</a>.If it were not for the ordinance, Thakur would not have been able to muster the 40% of parliamentary party membership that was earlier required to register his own JSP (Democratic). The UML <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/tried-tested-and-failed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">split despite efforts by the rank-and-file to keep it together</a> only because Oli and Nepal could not get along. Nepal accused Oli of authoritarianism, and Oli was angry about Nepal siding with the opposition alliance to unseat him. But at the heart of it was an ego-clash between Nepal's top communists.'Nepal’s communist movement is built on the revolutionary vision of our forefathers and the sacrifices of thousands of martyrs and warriors, and we want to prevent it from collapse,' Madhav Nepal said in a statement. “To achieve our goal, and to move in the direction of scientific socialism, we must take firm steps towards our national independence and self-respect.’The UML was established in 1990 after the unity of two communist factions, and split before in 1997 only to be reunited three years later. There is no reason why it cannot do so again if Oli and Nepal are out of the picture. Deuba’s five-party coalition has undoubtedly been playing the long game, with eyes on the 2023 local, provincial and federal polls and to recoup its drubbing in 2017. The bigger question now is how the hydra-headed five party alliance is going to divide up the spoils of government ahead of those elections. But as farsighted as Deuba may be about political strategy, he has not been as efficient in forming a government to tackle the country’s multiple crises. He has been unable to expand his cabinet beyond four ministers, and Nepal’s foreign and labour ministries at a crucial time remain without a leader even as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bring-us-home-says-nepali-in-kabul/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">thousands of Nepalis trapped</a> in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-will-rescue-nepalis-from-afghanistan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">await repatriation</a>.The delay is due to Deuba having to balance conflicting claims to senior ministerial berths from his alliance partners. He has to appease his once arch-enemy Pushpa Kamal Dahal, accommodate the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">kingmaker JSP</a>, and reward Nepal for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/parliamentary-whiplash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bringing in the swing votes to oust Oli</a>. All the while, he has to keep rival factions within his own party led by Ram Chandra Poudel at bay.This political disarray among Nepal’s three biggest parties is to the advantage of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-party-reincarnating-hindu-monarchy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">royal-Hindu-right parties</a> who want to cash in on public disillusionment by flagging secularism, federalism and even republicanism as being unsuitable for Nepal.Rabindra Mishra of the alternative Bibeksheel-Sajha party has felt the public pulse, and knows there is considerable support for Nepal reverting to a Hindu state, if not a monarchy, and called for a referendum. Factions in the other parties also sympathise with this potentially potent election agenda, some more openly than others. The fierce reaction from mainstream parties against Mishra shows just how insecure they have become, but even this threat to roll back the Constitution has not been enough to end the infighting between and within them.Like all alliances, this will be fickle, driven by the self-interest of politicians with one eye on elections.

Shristi Karki

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Old wine in old bottle in Nepal politics

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan