<figure><img width="2038" height="1356" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86d59c7e80680e067877jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Universal mask wearing could save 2,211 lives in Nepal in the next three months, according to a new study. Photo: AMIT Machamasi</figcaption></figure>In its daily briefing on Saturday, the Ministry of Health announced that 4,311 people had tested positive for Covid-19, and 116 more people had died in 24 hours from the pandemic.Experts were encouraged by these figures, and took it as a sign that the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-survive-2nd-covid-wave/"> second wave</a> had peaked. Indeed, the daily confirmed cases had dropped to half the level a week ago, and so had the positivity rate. Fatalities were also down from nearly 200 a day earlier this month.However, a new study shows that pandemic statistics the world over are fraught with inaccuracies, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-covid-tsunami/">Nepal figures</a> are also a gross underestimation. The calculations show that new daily infections were probably closer to 120,000 on Saturday, and there were more than 700 deaths from Covid-19 nationwide—more than 30 times higher than official figures. The study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle goes beyond official confirmed figures to calculate <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGW9ufUy8M70_z6NyotWDzInxyG1A">‘excess mortality’</a> and undetected Covid-19 infections.  ‘As terrible as the COVID-19 pandemic appears, this analysis shows that the actual toll is significantly worse,” said <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE9LwJOecLypPgPl4neBePOrEG0gw">IHME Director Chris Murray</a>, revealing the results of the analysis this month. ‘Understanding the true number of Covid-19 deaths not only helps us appreciate the magnitude of this global crisis, but also provides valuable information to policymakers developing response and recovery plans.’The official figures for Nepal are frightening enough. The country has the world’s second-highest bi-weekly increase in deaths at 291%, and the highest national test positivity rate of 40%. Yet, Nepal conducts only 713 tests per million people, contact tracing is virtually non-existent, less than 2% of the 30 million population is fully vaccinated, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/masks-and-vaccines-to-stop-nepals-2nd-wave/">mask-wearing</a> is at less than 65%. IHME’s graphs for Nepal show that during the early May peak when new confirmed cases were above 9,000 every day, the actual daily number was probably closer to 350,000. Nepal’s Ministry of Health’s total tally of fatalities is now 7,163, but the modelling shows that the actually total is 28,256. <figure><img width="2370" height="1010" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86da9c7e80680e067878jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Epidemiologists warn that if the official figures are so wrong, then the planning to meet the requirements for everything from test kits, hospital beds, ICU, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-an-emergency/">oxygen requirement,</a> ventilators, and even funerary planning would need to be re-evaluated and up-scaled.“We have known that under-reporting is widespread. The figures are underestimates, but the impact cannot be underestimated,” says virologist Sher Bahadur Pun at Teku Hospital. “For example, although we are just beginning to see a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/">plateauing</a> of the second wave, the increase in new cases is constant and the strain on the health system remains the same.”The IHME uses the <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGW9ufUy8M70_z6NyotWDzInxyG1A">‘excess mortality’ model</a> to calculate a more accurate figure for the infection and death rate from Covid-19 by using data for previous years, and factoring in new variables to calculate how many more people are actually dying during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic years.There are many factors affecting mortality during the pandemic: deaths directly due to Covid-19, increase in mortality because patients with pre-existing conditions are not getting the hospital care they need, or deaths due to mental disorders. However, there is also a reduction during the pandemic of deaths caused by high air pollution, fatalities from other air-borne infections like tuberculosis, measles or influenza, and even a drop in highway-traffic accidents. So, IHME modellers collected available data on excess mortality from Covid-19,  added an estimate the additional deaths that were not registered to came up with the total deaths from coronavirus. The results are shocking. The actual global death toll from Covid-19 is more than double the 3.5 million official figure. In India, the government’s figure for total fatalities till Saturday stood at 325,998, but the projections show that the actual deaths probably at more than 1 million. Although the death rate is going down, IHME says India’s cumulative deaths from Covid-19 could be 1.2 million by 1 September. In Nepal, even official data shows a steep spike during the whole of May as Nepali workers started arriving from India with the fast-spreading B.1.617 variant. But on 1 May when the confirmed daily Covid-19 deaths was showing only 32, the model shows that 117 people were already dying every day nationwide from the disease. Within two weeks, even when the official total had soared to 205, the graphs show that the excess daily mortality was already 742. The reason for the discrepancy was that mostly hospital deaths were being counted, and the death registration system is inaccurate and late.  <figure><img width="2350" height="1014" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86dc9c7e80680e067879jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa says the graphs just prove what everyone knew all along: testing is inadequate and even the distribution of testing facilitates is lop-sided. For example, 29 of 42 labs with RT PCR testing capacity in Bagmati Province are clustered within Kathmandu Valley. The whole of Gandaki province is reliant on three labs in Pokhara.She adds: “People in<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/"> remote parts of Nepal like Solukhumbu</a> have to walk for days to give their swab sample, which is then sent to a lab in Biratnagar. By the time result is back, a week has passed by and many of them are already sick.” Most of the returnees from India were never tested, and went straight home without quarantine, becoming data blind spots and skewing transmission numbers beyond Nepal’s limited testing capacity. Even though the national case numbers have gone down, experts say it is raging across rural Nepal—but there is no way to quantify it because of the lack of testing.Epidemiologist Sherpa recommends rapid turnaround of antigen tests to reduce time lost waiting for PCR results in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rural-nepal-fights-back-covid-19/">rural Nepal</a>. She says, “Patients show symptoms in five days but are contagious from the third day onwards. To avoid further spread in that crucial 48 hours, we must increase access to tests but also bring down the time it takes to get the result.”But targeted testing of symptomatic patients in remote districts like Rolpa and Humla have shown a staggering 90% positivity rate. Because of the lack of hospital care and the absence of medical oxygen, many die at home and the numbers never feed into the daily count announced in Kathmandu every evening.Virologist Pun at the Teku Hospital says effective contact tracing would provide the most accurate situation report, but that is not happening. He says, “The 70-80 daily new cases during the first wave were mostly asymptomatic travellers needing mandatory checks and their traced contacts. But in the more severe second wave, there is no contact tracing at all.”  <figure><img width="2350" height="952" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86df9c7e80680e06787ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Experts like Moshfiq Mobarak of Yale University say that the most effective strategy for countries with fragile health systems like Nepal to reduce fatalities is a three-pronged approach that aggressively promotes mask-wearing, responds to localised surges, as well as last-mile vaccine delivery.Mask-wearing alone has been proven in a trial in Bangladesh to show that a vigorous campaign for no-cost mask distribution, aggressive awareness drive, and punishment for non-wearers tripled the number of people using masks properly.‘This is an extremely cost-effective way to reduce transmission risk and save lives,’ Mobarak said in an op-<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/">ed he co-wrote for Nepali Times last week. </a>Indeed, the IHME model also proves that direct impact of mask wearing in Nepal. The modelling shows that the total coronavirus death toll in Nepal by 1 September will be at 44,711 if mobility went up to pre-Covid levels. However, if 95% of Nepalis wore masks in public at all times, the number of deaths would be reduced to 42,500. This means 2,211 lives would be saved just by universal mask-wearing in the next three months.Even though Nepal’s second wave may be susbsiding, experts say the country will take longer to come out of it than neighbours India or Bangladesh despite the lockdown. This is because of the lack of vaccines, mask-wearing at less than 65%, as well as lack of mass testing. Nepal’s seven-day decrease in new caseloads post-peak is estimated to be around 7.45% compared to India's 12.8%.

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Nepal Covid-19 impact worse than official figures

<figure><img width="2038" height="1356" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636ceedd9c7e80680e09ae54jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Universal mask wearing could save 2,211 lives in Nepal in the next three months, according to a new study. Photo: AMIT Machamasi</figcaption></figure>In its daily briefing on Saturday, the Ministry of Health announced that 4,311 people had tested positive for Covid-19, and 116 more people had died in 24 hours from the pandemic.Experts were encouraged by these figures, and took it as a sign that the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-survive-2nd-covid-wave/"> second wave</a> had peaked. Indeed, the daily confirmed cases had dropped to half the level a week ago, and so had the positivity rate. Fatalities were also down from nearly 200 a day earlier this month.However, a new study shows that pandemic statistics the world over are fraught with inaccuracies, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-covid-tsunami/">Nepal figures</a> are also a gross underestimation. The calculations show that new daily infections were probably closer to 120,000 on Saturday, and there were more than 700 deaths from Covid-19 nationwide—more than 30 times higher than official figures. The study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle goes beyond official confirmed figures to calculate <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGW9ufUy8M70_z6NyotWDzInxyG1A">‘excess mortality’</a> and undetected Covid-19 infections.  ‘As terrible as the COVID-19 pandemic appears, this analysis shows that the actual toll is significantly worse,” said <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE9LwJOecLypPgPl4neBePOrEG0gw">IHME Director Chris Murray</a>, revealing the results of the analysis this month. ‘Understanding the true number of Covid-19 deaths not only helps us appreciate the magnitude of this global crisis, but also provides valuable information to policymakers developing response and recovery plans.’The official figures for Nepal are frightening enough. The country has the world’s second-highest bi-weekly increase in deaths at 291%, and the highest national test positivity rate of 40%. Yet, Nepal conducts only 713 tests per million people, contact tracing is virtually non-existent, less than 2% of the 30 million population is fully vaccinated, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/masks-and-vaccines-to-stop-nepals-2nd-wave/">mask-wearing</a> is at less than 65%. IHME’s graphs for Nepal show that during the early May peak when new confirmed cases were above 9,000 every day, the actual daily number was probably closer to 350,000. Nepal’s Ministry of Health’s total tally of fatalities is now 7,163, but the modelling shows that the actually total is 28,256. <figure><img width="2370" height="1010" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636ceee09c7e80680e09ae55jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Cumulative deaths in Nepal by 1 September under pre-Covid mobility scenario, scaled top vaccination drive by then, and if 95% of people wore masks while outdoors. Source of all graphs: IHME University of Washington / Nepal Ministry of Health and Population</figcaption></figure>Epidemiologists warn that if the official figures are so wrong, then the planning to meet the requirements for everything from test kits, hospital beds, ICU, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-an-emergency/">oxygen requirement,</a> ventilators, and even funerary planning would need to be re-evaluated and up-scaled.“We have known that under-reporting is widespread. The figures are underestimates, but the impact cannot be underestimated,” says virologist Sher Bahadur Pun at Teku Hospital. “For example, although we are just beginning to see a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/">plateauing</a> of the second wave, the increase in new cases is constant and the strain on the health system remains the same.”The IHME uses the <a href="http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622442215950000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGW9ufUy8M70_z6NyotWDzInxyG1A">‘excess mortality’ model</a> to calculate a more accurate figure for the infection and death rate from Covid-19 by using data for previous years, and factoring in new variables to calculate how many more people are actually dying during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic years.There are many factors affecting mortality during the pandemic: deaths directly due to Covid-19, increase in mortality because patients with pre-existing conditions are not getting the hospital care they need, or deaths due to mental disorders. However, there is also a reduction during the pandemic of deaths caused by high air pollution, fatalities from other air-borne infections like tuberculosis, measles or influenza, and even a drop in highway-traffic accidents. So, IHME modellers collected available data on excess mortality from Covid-19,  added an estimate the additional deaths that were not registered to came up with the total deaths from coronavirus. The results are shocking. The actual global death toll from Covid-19 is more than double the 3.5 million official figure. In India, the government’s figure for total fatalities till Saturday stood at 325,998, but the projections show that the actual deaths probably at more than 1 million. Although the death rate is going down, IHME says India’s cumulative deaths from Covid-19 could be 1.2 million by 1 September. In Nepal, even official data shows a steep spike during the whole of May as Nepali workers started arriving from India with the fast-spreading B.1.617 variant. But on 1 May when the confirmed daily Covid-19 deaths was showing only 32, the model shows that 117 people were already dying every day nationwide from the disease. Within two weeks, even when the official total had soared to 205, the graphs show that the excess daily mortality was already 742. The reason for the discrepancy was that mostly hospital deaths were being counted, and the death registration system is inaccurate and late.  <figure><img width="2350" height="1014" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636ceee39c7e80680e09ae56jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Daily deaths is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic. This graph shows the discrepancy between official figures and total Covid-19 daily fatalities factoring in 'excess mortality'. There is usually a 3-week lag between infection and death.</figcaption></figure>Epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa says the graphs just prove what everyone knew all along: testing is inadequate and even the distribution of testing facilitates is lop-sided. For example, 29 of 42 labs with RT PCR testing capacity in Bagmati Province are clustered within Kathmandu Valley. The whole of Gandaki province is reliant on three labs in Pokhara.She adds: “People in<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/"> remote parts of Nepal like Solukhumbu</a> have to walk for days to give their swab sample, which is then sent to a lab in Biratnagar. By the time result is back, a week has passed by and many of them are already sick.” Most of the returnees from India were never tested, and went straight home without quarantine, becoming data blind spots and skewing transmission numbers beyond Nepal’s limited testing capacity. Even though the national case numbers have gone down, experts say it is raging across rural Nepal—but there is no way to quantify it because of the lack of testing.Epidemiologist Sherpa recommends rapid turnaround of antigen tests to reduce time lost waiting for PCR results in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rural-nepal-fights-back-covid-19/">rural Nepal</a>. She says, “Patients show symptoms in five days but are contagious from the third day onwards. To avoid further spread in that crucial 48 hours, we must increase access to tests but also bring down the time it takes to get the result.”But targeted testing of symptomatic patients in remote districts like Rolpa and Humla have shown a staggering 90% positivity rate. Because of the lack of hospital care and the absence of medical oxygen, many die at home and the numbers never feed into the daily count announced in Kathmandu every evening.Virologist Pun at the Teku Hospital says effective contact tracing would provide the most accurate situation report, but that is not happening. He says, “The 70-80 daily new cases during the first wave were mostly asymptomatic travellers needing mandatory checks and their traced contacts. But in the more severe second wave, there is no contact tracing at all.”  <figure><img width="2350" height="952" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636ceee69c7e80680e09ae57jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Estimated infections in Nepal, showing the first and second waves, and the impact of mask-wearing.</figcaption></figure>Experts like Moshfiq Mobarak of Yale University say that the most effective strategy for countries with fragile health systems like Nepal to reduce fatalities is a three-pronged approach that aggressively promotes mask-wearing, responds to localised surges, as well as last-mile vaccine delivery.Mask-wearing alone has been proven in a trial in Bangladesh to show that a vigorous campaign for no-cost mask distribution, aggressive awareness drive, and punishment for non-wearers tripled the number of people using masks properly.‘This is an extremely cost-effective way to reduce transmission risk and save lives,’ Mobarak said in an op-<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/">ed he co-wrote for Nepali Times last week. </a>Indeed, the IHME model also proves that direct impact of mask wearing in Nepal. The modelling shows that the total coronavirus death toll in Nepal by 1 September will be at 44,711 if mobility went up to pre-Covid levels. However, if 95% of Nepalis wore masks in public at all times, the number of deaths would be reduced to 42,500. This means 2,211 lives would be saved just by universal mask-wearing in the next three months.Even though Nepal’s second wave may be susbsiding, experts say the country will take longer to come out of it than neighbours India or Bangladesh despite the lockdown. This is because of the lack of vaccines, mask-wearing at less than 65%, as well as lack of mass testing. Nepal’s seven-day decrease in new caseloads post-peak is estimated to be around 7.45% compared to India's 12.8%.

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

underreporting-covid

Nepal Covid-19 impact worse than official figures

Nepal Covid-19 impact worse than official figures

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Walking, working, worshipping in Patan