<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0df9c7e80680e083e18jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="1083"/><figcaption>The south face of Mt Gauri Shankar (7,134m) on the border between Nepal and China is bare rock, and shows how dramatically the snowline has receded, and the glaciers have shrunk. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>With just 4% of the world’s population, the United States is responsible for over 15% of annual global carbon emissions. What America does or does not do will affect how fast the Himalayan ice cap will melt during this century.Which is why Joe Biden’s win in the US election is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ununited-states-of-america/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">such a big deal for the global environment</a>, including the Himalaya. Biden has announced he will reverse Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which ironically came into effect on 4 November, the day after the US vote.The Himalayan arc from Burma to Afghanistan is the bigg<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">est storehouse of fresh water</a> after the two polar regions, and it is warming between 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average. The loss of Himalayan ice would have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">devastating consequences for 1.6 billion people</a> living in the mountains, and in downstream countries.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-just-2-years-a-nepal-peak-becomes-snowless/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In just 2 years, a Nepal peak becomes snowless</a>, Basanta Pratap Singh“Reversing these warming trends will begin with Biden’s commitment to re-joining the Paris agreement, as the US is not only one of the world’s greatest climate offenders but also one of its best potential leaders and sources of needed funding,” said Alton C Byers of the University of Colorado, who has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">studied Himalayan glaciers</a> for the past 30 years.The Paris Agreement aims to cap the global temperature rise in this century ‘well below’ 2°C by reducing carbon emissions through renewable energy technologies, and protecting forests and biodiversity.But rejoining the Paris accord will be the easy part. Much harder for the Biden presidency will be overcoming domestic opposition to cutting emissions at home, push rapid transition to clean energy, and funding global carbon reduction initiatives.The Biden administration may be more supportive of projects like USAID efforts in the past that have helped Nepal become a global leader in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial lake risk reduction</a>, adaptation, and climate mitigation measures.“These projects are in need of resurrection, along with the development of renewable energy technologies, sustainable tourism, and other opportunities as part of Nepal’s post-coronavirus recovery plans,” Byers added in an email interview with Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0e19c7e80680e083e19jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1503" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Joe Biden ran on a bold climate action platform, unveiling a $2 trillion investment plan with a promise to clean up the energy sector by 2035, boost renewables and create high paying green jobs.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-good-man-won/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Biden-Harris win</a> has raised hopes among environmentalists around the world, but the world has a lot of catching up to do to reverse Trump’s systematic effort over the past four years to undermine <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-climate-threat-multiplier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate mitigation measures</a>. The new administration in January will also likely face a serious opposition from a possible Republican-led Senate as it seeks to transition America off fossil fuels."To regain credibility on climate, the US now has to show the world that it is on a path to net zero emissions by 2050, only then can America press other high-emitting countries to act with the urgency required by the climate crisis," added <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/more-trekkers-more-trees/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/more-trekkers-more-trees/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605077751622000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5ey5t5tQc3eeXYvXO5z5rMSahSQ">Adam Stern</a>, a California-based climate leader, formerly with the Environmental Defense Fund."If Biden can restore the role of science in determining US climate policy, he may also be able to focus world attention on regions like the Himalaya that are already experiencing extreme climate changes,” said Stern, who has written about energy use in Nepal’s Khumbu region.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0e59c7e80680e083e1ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="568"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>International climate policies will have a lasting impact on the Himalaya where measurements of ice mass, temperature rise, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/forests-replace-glaciers-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial shrinking</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">receding snowlines</a> have been more serious than previous estimates.However, experts say that Nepal also has to do its bit to accelerate its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">shift to solar</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydropower in generating electricity</a> for transport and household use. And since nearly a quarter of melting of Himalayan glaciers is attributed to the <a style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/black-carbon-easier-to-control-than-carbon-dioxide-to-reduce-global-warming%20,2079" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deposition of soot and dust on the snow</a>, transboundary collaboration in pollution control is a must.Since October, for example, northern India has been blanketed by thick smoke from crop residue burning, and this black carbon is being blown up to the snows by prevailing westerlies. And as winter sets in, industrial and vehicular pollution will be trapped by inversion across the Indo-Ganetic plains and ultimately reduce the reflectivity of Himalayan ice cover.Air pollution was already decreasing the average lifespan of tens of millions of people in north India by 3.7 years. It killed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">42,100 people in Nepal last year</a> alone, studies show, and this winter that risk for patients with respiratory issues is combined with Covid-19 complications.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0e79c7e80680e083e1bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="675"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The causes and solutions of air pollution and climate change <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/one-atmosphere/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">are intricately interconnected</a>, both largely affected by human activities over time and space. In fact, short-lived pollutants like black carbon, ozone and other gases exacerbate global warming.“Dark coloured pollutants such as soot particles from diesel and forest fires absorb sunlight and warm up the air at the altitude at which they are located,” explained atmospheric scientist Arnico Panday. “If they warm the air near snow or ice surfaces they can contribute to melting. And when dark particles, including windblown desert dust, settle on snowfields or glaciers they can darken the surfaces and melt the snow and ice. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reducing-black-carbon-in-the-himalayas,2031" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Certain air pollutants</a> therefore accelerate glacier melt in the Himalaya.”Even though a Biden presidency has given some hope for climate activists in the Himalaya, they point out that China has overtaken the United States, responsible for 28% of total carbon emissions in 2018. Carbon emissions in China and India are growing at a faster rate than in North America, and the two countries already contribute 37% of global greenhouse gases annually.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0ea9c7e80680e083e1cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1884" height="1250"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>So, while a greener America will help, the real action to slow Himalayan melting <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19368" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will have to come from the immediate region</a>. The good news is there are already proven <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/brick-factories-still-using-old-polluting-technology,2078" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clean technologies for brick kilns</a>, cement industries, solar and hydro here in Nepal and in South Asia. Governments need to incentivise these, provide subsidies, and investors need to back them up.“Air pollution has never made it to the priority of our politicians, their mentality of focusing on short-terms gains like tax revenue over long-term gains can’t be changed,” says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605077751622000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQzD9EPDBRXFun8S0H0x_qaZ-bbg">Manjeet Dhakal</a>, adviser to the Least Developed Countries support group at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).He adds: “We must deploy our own young population to lobby and take part in climate action. What happens in the United States, whether international funds will be available will only help temporarily. We must cut emissions at source, educate our own people about the cost of the climate crisis, and provide alternatives.”

Sonia Awale

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A Biden presidency, climate and the Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0969c7e80680e083dffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2544" height="1298"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Outside my window this Saturday morning, the Seattle sky is a typical November grey. But it is such a momentous day of brightness in hope. For the first time in almost four years I breathe with ease and comfort , a deep soothing sigh of gratitude and emotional relief for myself, my family and our country.Today, a good man and a good woman won. Deservedly. Faith in the substance of character and decency, ethics, integrity and sincerity of purpose for public service, true patriotism and dignity in the office of our highest house is rekindled. Hopefully, we have exorcised the demons of negativity that saturated our daily air these torturous four years. It’s done now and we all have to heal.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ununited-states-of-america/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(Un)United States of America</a>, Kunda DixitWe are still in the midst of the worst pandemic of our lifetime. Daily infections are raging to unprecedented levels and sees no end. This is what Joe Biden has inherited. Along with severe economic recession and political and social rancour, the likes of which we never have seen.But for now, there is jubilation in the streets, even in the knowledge that the road ahead is challenging and paved with distrust, chaos, conflict and division. We have placed our destiny in the hands of someone steady, someone who has survived the long odyssey of death and defeat, the loneliness and pain of separation from his loved ones and the humiliation of public scrutiny.He is here because he never gave up and takes this pedestal as a position of grave responsibility and not as an entitlement. He will not give up on us and nor will he cast blame or make excuses.There is much anger and frustration and rightly so. America seems to have changed in so many ways these past four years and we seemed to have seen an agitated shift in our nation’s demeanour. It felt for so long that we’d lost our moral moorings in a vile invasion of all our democratic values of social inclusion, compassion and empathy for the less fortunate and a return to extreme tribalism.We are a deeply wounded giant but we will recover quickly, revive and regain. For that is how the great heroes and great champions bounce back from aberrations and anomalies. And today is day one.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be09a9c7e80680e083e00jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683"><figcaption>This photograph by Evan Vucci of Associated Press of a defiant Donald Trump at the White House refusing to concede went viral.</figcaption></figure>Just for now our moral outrage at what we endured can now exult into a catharsis of celebration for normalcy, even if momentarily. Let us cherish this moment and remember well what it felt like to almost lose it.Camelot is not a place, but an experience - one that we can all aspire to again and create. Where truth is again valued and not mocked and where we can all come together to do what make sense for all of us and not just for me.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-winter-of-our-spring,1331" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-winter-of-our-spring,1331&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604884839999000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE8v50QRCMcAWtbiZ1Yle6coE2y1w">Tashi T Sherpa</a> is Creative Director and CEO of Khangri Sourcing based in Seattle.

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Good man and woman won

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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