The shock wave of the return of Donald Trump to the White House, as well as the Republican control of the Senate and possibly the House, will impact not just America but people across the world.
In South Asia, it will mainly change the way Washington views and deals with China and India, and in more unpredictable ways. The impact on Nepal will be governed by how US relations with the country’s two giant neighbours develop in the next five years.
“Compared to Harris who has been focused more on multilateralism and maintaining allies, Trump is more confrontational and unilateral,” says National Assembly member and former Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Paudyel. “There is fear that Trump’s policies will push the world to become even more polarised than it is now.”
India and China will both be able to fill the gap left by Trump America’s retreat from global and regional leadership. They will be able to take advantage of Trump diluting relations with or abandoning traditional allies in Europe and Asia.
Although India is in the western camp, New Delhi has wanted to call its own shots. It is using its growing economic clout to thumb its nose at the EU and the US. For example, India has got away with importing oil from Russia despite western sanctions.
Says Akhilesh Upadhyay, Senior Fellow at the Strategic Affairs Center, IIDS: “From a traditional security perspective, Nepal is bang in the middle of China and India. China and America have a great power rivalry, and it is unclear which way Indian axis will go.”
India can also benefit if Trump follows through on threats on more tariffs on Chinese imports. Even though the Biden-Harris administration has been punishing China with tariffs and other barriers, Trump has in the past been more belligerent on Beijing.
“On the one hand, India is close to US in Quad, on the other hand, it takes part in BRICS where it works with Russia and China, and the Shanghai Cooperation. It remains to be seen how the US relationship plays out with our two big neighbours,” adds Upadhyay.
Since the enemy of an enemy is a friend, Washington has regarded India as its bulwark against increased Chinese economic and military clout. But New Delhi has not always gone along with US strategic interests, and does not really like the Americans being too involved with India’s smaller neighbours.
On the downside, A Trump administration could curb the influx of Indian IT workers in US, and the easy access Nepali students have to those jobs in the US could also be scaled back.
Some experts say which party is in the White House will not affect policy South Asia, and Nepal even less. But a Trump win could mean less development assistance to Nepal, particularly in reproductive health, human rights, and social safety.
Nischal Pandey at the Centre for South Asian Studies in Kathmandu says that the few state-level visits between the US and Nepal — from King Mahendra’s address to the joint session of US Congress during President Eisenhower tenure in 1960 to Ganesh Man Singh being received at the White House by President Bush Sr after 1990, to US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s visit in 2002 during George HW Bush’s term — have all been during Republican administrations.
He adds, “Historically, Republican presidents and administrations have been &nbsp;interested in Nepal than Democratic ones.”
More directly, Nepalis aspiring to migrate to the United States could find it more difficult. There are currently about 300 Nepalis waiting in Mexico for human traffickers to smuggle them into the United States, and that border is going to be tightened even more.
Earlier this year, Sao Paolo airport in Brazil had 150 Nepalis stranded after arriving to take the Darien Gap backdoor to the US. Another 200 headed out to Brazil were stuck at Addis Ababa airport, forcing Ethiopia to ban visas to Nepalis.&nbsp;
Trump has threatened a 20% tariff on Mexican imports if it does not stop migrants. He plans to deport 11 million undocumented people, he may not be able to carry it through but the threat is there for Nepalis in the US without papers.
Trump’s strong rhetoric on China could be bargaining brinkmanship, and it will be interesting to see how he balances this with Sino-Russian alignment. Biden did not roll back bans on Huawei and restrictions on TikTok, and US security concerns about China’s rise is a bipartisan issue, just as Gaza is. Harris would not have done things differently in those sectors.&nbsp;
Says MP Bimala Rai Paudyal: “Trump’s win could cause economic tensions with China, which will affect trade here as well, this is something we will need to prepare for.”
America’s moral authority to lecture countires like Nepal on transitional justice, human rights, democracy, and press freedom will be diminished during the second Trump term.&nbsp;
Reproductive rights, support for family planning projects in Nepal through the UN system may also fall like it did during his earlier presidency. Foreign aid through USAID could also be cut.
But perhaps the more indirect impact on Nepal of the Trump presidency will be his rollback on America’s commitment to curb climate change which will accelerate melting of the Himalayan icecap with major impact on water supply downstream in Asia.&nbsp;
“America’s climate commitments and goals will be impacted by Trump who doesn’t believe in climate change,” says Paudyal. “The current work on loss and damage, and carbon trading depends significantly on US funding, and the world looks to the US to be proactive.”
If Trump can bring the Ukraine war to a close by cosying up to Putin, a peace deal may improve fuel and food situation globally. There are thousands of Nepalis in the Russian Army, at least 50 have died, and they could finally come home.&nbsp;
Concludes Upadhyay: “As for Nepal, the Trump administration should see Nepal as a soverign nation on its own right rather than through the prism of great power rivalry either between US and China.”

Shristi Karki

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Trumpet Call

<figure><img width="1830" height="1178" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636be02e9c7e80680e083ddejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Many precincts that have the highest proportion of Covid-19 cases also voted for Trump.</figcaption></figure>America’s turmoil over the past four years and this messy election are a lesson in how to dismantle a functioning democracy in a few easy steps. This is an important warning for Nepal and countries in the region which are grappling with making their own electoral systems free and fair, and deliver accountability.Foreign policy experts say that the chaos that has followed this election is more reminiscent of the banana republics to which America used to lecture about freedom, democracy and human rights.America has projected hard power through its global military might, but also its value system through technology and US cultural products. But four years of Trump has cost America this moral high ground globally.“The US is divided like never before. This will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world and for South Asia that looks up to the United States as a beacon of democracy with proper separation of powers and moral authority to guide other countries on matters of electoral politics,” says Nishchal Pandey, Director of the Centre for South Asian Studies in Kathmandu. “Despite his poor handling of the pandemic and several erroneous decisions, President Trump has shown that his policies were admired by a substantial chunk of the population.”Indeed, the US election results so far prove how little facts matter even in a democracy in which the media has been relentlessly investigating Donald Trump’s wrongdoings. Even if Joe Biden wins, the results have shown that Trumpist disenchantment with the establishment is strong and he has managed to successfully convince his base that the ‘liberal press’ is out to get him with ‘fake news’. <figure><img width="640" height="969" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636be0319c7e80680e083ddfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Pandey adds that US voters have repeatedly shown that very few understand how electoral colleges work, and why the popular vote does not determine the winner.He told Nepali Times: “It is high time that the US introspects on the shortcomings of how its elections are conducted because its democracy instead of becoming an element of its soft power is becoming a travesty of sorts to telecast live all over the world.”For many Nepalis there is a strong sense of irony about an America that has been supporting human rights, inclusion and democracy in the country's post-conflict transition. Many remember former <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Hopeful,299" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Hopeful,299&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFGrC8Q-KWicSzjuisoDwqtEONOTw">US president Jimmy Carter’s</a> multiple visits to observe elections here. It seems the services of his Carter Centre are now required more in his own home state of Georgia where the race is neck-to-neck, and there is deep disagreement about counting methods. <img width="1667" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636be0339c7e80680e083de0jpeg.jpg" alt="">A possible Biden victory may also be good news to those applying for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/The-ugly-american-donald-trump,3520" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/The-ugly-american-donald-trump,3520&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604712623216000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHogGNpB4R8t2Pmk0RwO7w1KXx0TA">H-1B visas</a> who were barred from entry into America by Trump in June, which would affect up to 50,000 Indian professionals, and some Nepalis. A US court subsequently overturned the decision last month. Trump also banned the US <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17620" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D17620&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604712623216000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH57Yz28UPfsuHkPQowQQafbtrFdQ">Diversity Visa (DV)</a> lottery, and interviews for 2021 winners were suspended, citing Covid-19. Applications, however, have reopened for 2022. Many undocumented Nepalis in the US were also affected by Trump trying to end the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/temporary-protection-nepalis-in-trumps-us,4067" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/temporary-protection-nepalis-in-trumps-us,4067&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604712623216000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE03jjUg8BD1eDQVV2xg-ONACLy7A">Temporary Protected Status (TPS). </a>On Wednesday, even as Americans were voting, the United States formally left the Paris Climate Agreement signed in 2015. In the past four years, Trump has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdelwmaAN_gDopS7otGmQzDhf8XA">delayed action on the climate emergency</a>, and overturned other environmental legislation, appointed an oil lobbyist to head the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). Biden has said he would get the US back into the Paris accord the day after he is inaugurated, if elected. <figure><img width="640" height="638" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636be0379c7e80680e083de1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Four more years of Trump would unleash so much damage to the Planet, environmentalists say, that it would take decades to undo. Nepal's Himalayan mountains, which are already melting rapidly, will bear the direct impact of accelerated climate heating -- endangering the water supply to millions of people living downstream in India and Bangladesh as well.Geopolitically, the only difference for Nepal between Trump or Biden would be that at least Biden knows where Nepal is, and will not <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/classified-top-secret/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/classified-top-secret/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcGXBYk_4UZySIq8M8DujULx1LLA">pronounce it “Nipple”.</a> Neither president is going to stomach China extending its military, economic and political clout in Asia – even though Biden’s approach may be less aggressive. Last week in New Delhi, American and Indian foreign and defence officials signed a Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwdb3kIPFD0yxuFBj-IRElTAUupw">pact </a>seen by many as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwdb3kIPFD0yxuFBj-IRElTAUupw">a military alliance</a> aimed at containing China. A Biden presidency would likely give continuity to this strategic alliance that has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/from-mt-everest-to-the-indian-ocean/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/from-mt-everest-to-the-indian-ocean/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6ws6_4UtO66t386Uyh9kjDfEr3g">caught Asian countries like Nepal in a bind</a>. Biden will also likely stay the course on the Indo-Pacific strategy and QUAD naval exercises in the Indian Ocean this week. “It appears that Biden will largely follow the Trump approach to China and therefore to the Indo-Pacific in as much as this is a structural feature of current international politics and therefore has garnered bipartisan support in the United States,” says <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/Repeating%20,110" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/Repeating%2520,110&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGxjUh4EKyVRxx-HKtIwWMWV9DGbw">Bhaskar Koirala</a> of the <a href="http://www.niiss.org.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.niiss.org.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604666072196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOP3CNXeRaQ_p-YwPWbhrrYMZziA">Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies</a>. “Under a Biden administration, the US can be expected to play an increasing role as an off-shore balancer in Asia.”For Nepal, a Biden administration may place a greater emphasis on development and programs such as the MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation) infrastructure project as a counter to China’s BRI (Belt Road Initiative). Koirala adds: "Biden may have a more general foreign policy objective to ensure that Nepal is stable politically and that it retains its independent identity."

Kunda Dixit

(Un)United States of America

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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Trumpet Call

(Un)United States of America

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138