<figure><img width="920" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be10c9c7e80680e083e28jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A girl worships in a locked up Ganesh temple in Kuleshwor in Kathmandu this week. All photos: Rajani Maharjan</figcaption></figure>For decades, Dhanamaya Singh concluded each day at Aakash Bhairab Temple in Indrachok in Kathmandu’s historic heart, to sing bhajan hymns.As an unmarried elder, these evening prayers were her way of engaging with her community and were the centre of her social and ritual life. But, at the end of March, with the first government-mandated lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19, her daily practice was stopped abruptly. Dhanamaya has not seen a single one of her relatives since the lockdown began, and even after it was lifted has to be careful. While she previously visited them frequently for feasts and rituals days, her family is strictly adhering to social distancing practices, so she now spends most of her time alone at home. She says the isolation, though protective of her physical health, has been detrimental to her mental wellbeing.  <a href="https://www.nami.org/Blogs/NAMI-Blog/December-2016/The-Mental-Health-Benefits-of-Religion-Spiritual" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nami.org/Blogs/NAMI-Blog/December-2016/The-Mental-Health-Benefits-of-Religion-Spiritual&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605372826448000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGy1PM7H-LAzL9nOponn9G9rrlPhg">Numerous studies</a> have shown the connection between religious practice and mental health benefits. The system of beliefs, the structure, and the sense of community inherent in most religions have a largely positive impact on mental wellbeing. Regardless of the belief system, including Hinduism, Christianity, Islam, all involve rituals that help people cope with difficult life events such as the death of a loved one, lessons that arise from challenging situations, as well as regularity and predictability, all of which are highly beneficial during the uncertainty of a pandemic. Additionally, religion and spirituality create a group of people who connect over shared beliefs. The benefits of feeling a sense of belonging, a place for trusting public engagement, and social connection have been shown to reduce anxiety, depression, and other forms of mental distress. <figure><img width="640" height="853" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be10f9c7e80680e083e29jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While the Covid-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of religious practice in Nepal, most people, regardless of their age, gender, or social position, say that it is the change in community engagement that has had the most significant impact on their lives. While many report that they are visiting temples less frequently and have reduced the scale of their rituals, people say they are still finding a way to worship and to regain the sense of community that their typical religious practice brings. To do so, more and more residents of Kathmandu are turning to technology, some for the very first time. But can tools like Facebook, messenger apps, and even virtual reality really replace the real experience?Dhanamaya’s struggle with loneliness and the way in which the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted her mental health is not uncommon in Kathmandu Valley, across Nepal, or around the world. Since the first case of Covid-19 was <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30067-0/fulltext" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30067-0/fulltext&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605372826448000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGg55WQDhgR0lx9yQqWW4gYDhRhRg">recorded in Nepal</a> on 23 January, the valley has been in and out of lockdowns with varying degrees of restrictions.Although restaurants and public offices have been allowed to reopen periodically, most of the city’s temples, particularly the major ones that draw the largest crowds, have remained shuttered for over seven months.Almost every country in the world has grappled with how to manage the disease burden without causing devastating impacts to the economy, and Nepal is no different in the way it has been forced to bear this struggle. However, because Nepal’s healthcare capacity is already limited, the government of Nepal instituted even more stringent lockdown actions, particularly in Kathmandu Valley, than have been seen in many other countries, including measures such as even/odd days for vehicles, grounding domestic flights, and the complete and long-term closure of businesses. The impacts of these extend far beyond purely the economic.      For example, when Maya Dangol’s mother died a couple of months ago, she and her family struggled to conduct the death rituals due to the lockdown measures. Market closures, supply shortages, and the even/odd license plate restrictions on vehicles posed a challenge when trying to obtain all the necessary material to conduct the funeral rituals. She says her family visited the temples at four in the morning to burn wick lamps in their mother’s name to enable them to return home by six to avoid vehicle restrictions and contact with other people. <figure><img width="960" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be1119c7e80680e083e2ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Despite these limitations, coronavirus cases continue to increase daily and hospitals in Kathmandu are reaching capacity, some having to turn away even serious cases due to a lack of beds and other resources. The total confirmed cases in Nepal surpassed 200,000 this week, with nearly half of them just in Kathmandu Valley. The total deaths crossed 1,202 on 13 November, with 456 of them in Kathmandu. For the past weeks, the Valley is recording an average of 60% of the daily cases detected nationwide.Public health experts say the government has failed to effectively respond to the pandemic because there was little planning or work to improve healthcare facilities before they became overwhelmed. Now some, especially underprivileged families, feel they have few options if they contract the virus. There is also concern about how the government’s response to the pandemic has impacted the way religious and cultural events have been carried out. Dhiraj, a Newa environmental scientist is worried about the impact of the lockdown on some of the major festivals and rituals, including Rato Machindranath and Bisket Jatra. “The government has prevented these festivals from taking place, but other functions are allowed to continue. Major temples like Pashupati, have been closed since the beginning of the lockdown period, while other activities remain open, like markets and shops,” he explained.“Previously, the Newa community of Kathmandu Valley was especially strong in its religious beliefs, these days this is breaking down. For the first time in a very long time, people are not observing the rituals,” said Dhiraj, adding that this was partly due to fears about disease transmission, but also partially due to government regulation.  While most of the major religious events have been canceled or carried out with highly reduced numbers, residents of Kathmandu and people across Nepal have found ways to adapt and maintain spiritual and social connections despite the difficulty the pandemic poses. Dhanamaya, the bhajan singer, exemplifies this. Although she could no longer play bhajan at the temple, Dhanamaya realised she had another outlet to share her songs and worship with the community: through social media platforms such as Facebook. It was difficult for her to embrace the technology at first, she admits, and she needed help from her young nieces and nephews to navigate the platform. But Dhanamaya says: “Now, when I have leisure time, I get dressed up as if I am going out. I then position my mobile to record myself singing and if the video is nice, I post it.” When her friends and family give positive feedback, she feels less disconnected, and inspired to continue learning and sharing.  <figure><img width="600" height="872" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be1139c7e80680e083e2bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Similarly, Gyani Maharjan says she spends a most of her days on video calls and other social media platforms. Because she has high blood pressure and is therefore at a greater risk for a more serious infection if she contracts the virus, she too is limiting physical contact with others, including family. To stay healthy physically as well as mentally, she participates in a yoga class through a messenger application on her mobile. Like Dhanamaya, she says this has helped her regain a sense of community when she would otherwise be almost completely isolated. Gyani and her nine siblings changed the way they celebrated the festival season this year, but she says, this did not make them feel any less connected as a family. During recent festivals, each sibling would participate in group video calls where they would show what they had prepared for that particular day and joke with each other and laugh. Gyani said she feels less anxious and stressed when she gets to connect using these platforms and watch videos of her grandchildren. In <a href="https://restofworld.org/2020/hey-bhagwan/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://restofworld.org/2020/hey-bhagwan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605372826448000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_XGUoyhE7Wod0TspJ2h-j-QFa-Q">India</a>, virtual reality (VR) platforms are being marketed as a way to enable people to do darshan even when they cannot physically get to the temples. This began even before the beginning of the pandemic for people who have moved out of their home state or to a foreign country, because they are elderly or ill, and for those who the major traffic jams of the Indian metropolises prevented them from visiting the temples regularly. Smartphone application downloads for VR temple experiences have increased exponentially since temples were closed in response to the spread of Covid-19. VR apps enable priests to continue to perform the rituals and maintain their livelihoods while devotees can continue to engage, though from afar.Likewise, many Americans have adopted the habit of attending virtual church from their laptops every Sunday. Even after the virus is managed and in-person worship can resume, many churches report that they will continue live streaming weekly services to accommodate those who are unable to attend the service or who prefer to worship from home.However, not everyone has embraced these changing forms of worshiping and socialising though. Baburaja Bajracharya, a priest, says he has heard that some of the Brahmin priests  are instructing people to perform puja through video calls, however, he and other Newa priests that he knows have not adopted this practice. For Baburaja and many others who are hesitant to involve technology in religious practice or who reject it outright, the experience and perceived benefits of being at a temple or in the presence of a priest during puja cannot be replicated virtually. The sense of community afforded through religious practice is not felt to the same degree when those experiences are happening on a mobile phone. <figure><img width="492" height="1024" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be1159c7e80680e083e2cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="492" height="1024" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be1179c7e80680e083e2djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691617713052?journalCode=ppsa" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691617713052?journalCode%3Dppsa&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605372826448000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQIKJRX8DVUxp5GgqxtnVybWftvw">Research</a> has shown that social media can be effective in addressing loneliness when it is used to enhance existing relationships, like in the case of Dhanamaya and Gyani, but is counterproductive when it is relied upon to replace in-person interaction. Therefore, the benefits of this technology are largely dependent on the way they are integrated into daily lives.However, during a pandemic, many feel as though there are few other options for socialisation other than to engage on virtual platforms. This suggests that for some, the perceived benefits may end up being short-lived or unsustainable if social distancing remains necessary far into the future.  For some, though, the use of technology to conduct and share ritual, religious, and community experiences has been essential. Alok Siddhi Tuladhar, a cultural activist, says his birthday would have been a lonely and isolating day for both him and his parents if not for platforms that enable virtual connection. Because he tested Covid-19 positive, though asymptomatic, he chose to celebrate his birthday at home with only his wife and son. His elderly parents watched his wife perform the birthday puja from their house across the city over video chat. Tuladhar says he thinks “technology helped us to fill the gap that comes with social distancing when we are unable to visit each other physically.”  Although technology has helped fill that gap for some, its impact in a post-pandemic world is yet to be seen. Rajani Maharjan is an environmental anthropologist affiliated with the Small Earth Nepal (SEN), an environmental research group.Madison Wrobley is a 2019-2020 Fulbright-National Geographic Storytelling Fellow who studies water insecurity, primarily in Kathmandu Valley, and is now based in Colorado.

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With temples locked up, Nepalis improvise

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

virtual-mass

With temples locked up, Nepalis improvise

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138