<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d142b9c7e80680e0a9965jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2002" height="1032"/>A network of 24 civil society groups have demanded that the <a href="https://www.ipu.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU)</a> withdraw its invitation to House Speaker Agni Sapkota to attend its <a href="https://www.ipu.org/event/143rd-assembly-and-related-meetings" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">143rd assembly</a> that begins Friday in Madrid.Sapkota of the Maoist Centre has been accused of summary execution during the conflict, and his case is pending in Nepal’s Supreme Court.The <a href="http://www.advocacyforum.org/what-we-do/transitional-justice-department/accountability-watch-committee.php">Accountability Watch Committee (AWC)</a>, a network of human rights groups and victims of the conflict of Nepal, have written an open letter to the President of IPU Duarte Pacheco, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares Bueno and Ambassador to India and Nepal José María Ridao Domínguez asking that Sapkota not be invited to the conference.‘We ask the Government of Spain to direct its immigration authorities not only to refuse Mr. Sapkota entry into the country but also to open an investigation under the principles of Universal Jurisdiction, given the continuing investigation in Nepal in relation to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal/">international crimes</a> committed during Nepal’s conflict,’ wrote AWC coordinator <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-real-story-in-nepals-supreme-court-debacle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Charan Prasai</a>.The news comes as Nepal this week marks the 15th anniversary of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/justice-adjourned-for-nepal-conflict-victims,454">Comprehensive Peace Accord</a> between Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), effectively ending the insurgency in which at least 17,000 people were killed, and more than 2,000 are<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-stalls-on-war-crime-probes/"> still missing</a>.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976">State of impunity</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/speechless/">Speechless</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d142e9c7e80680e0a9966jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1611" height="1062"><figcaption>Agni Sapkota</figcaption></figure>But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-runs-out-of-excuses-to-address-war-crimes/">one and a half decades and 14 prime ministers later</a>, and despite the formation of two commissions to investigate war time excesses, conflict-era survivors of torture, abuse, rape and families of those killed continue to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/victims-waiting-for-justice,698">wait for justice.</a>Nepal’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/13/nepal-reform-transitional-justice-law">delayed transitional justice</a> and multiple cases of the perpetrators being set free have added to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-lingering-trauma-of-war/">injustice and anguish of the victims and their families</a>.Speaker Sapkota himself is alleged to have been involved in the April 2005 abduction, torture, disappearance, killing and illegal burial of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/quest-for-justice-unites-two-women-whose-relatives-were-victims-in-the-hands-of-the-maoist-and-nepal,1295">Arjun Bahadur Lama,</a> a civic leader from Kavre district. During conflict years, Sapkota was a central committee member and leader of the underground Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) in Sindhupalchok district, neighbouring Kavre.Sapkota was elected as Speaker in January 2020 amidst protests against his candidacy. Before this, he served as a cabinet minister after his party entered mainstream politics in 2006 after the peace accord.‘Despite the order of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rights-groups-laud-nepal-supreme-court-ruling/">Supreme Court</a> requiring impartial and prompt investigation and an arrest warrant pending against him, investigations have not proceeded for more than a decade nor has he been arrested. Meanwhile, even as Mr. Sapkota’s political career has progressed, as far as the Nepal Police administration is concerned, he still cannot be located,’ the letter states.Due to the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/05/31/hearing-set-for-case-against-minister-agni-sapkota/">allegations pending</a> against him, Sapkota has had visa applications rejected by the United States and Australia in the past.The letter has been endorsed by prominent members of the civil society and rights organisations, including:<ol><li>Advocacy Forum-Nepal (AF)</li> <li>Amnesty International Nepal</li> <li>Bandurmudhe Ghatana Pidit Samiti</li> <li>Conflict Victim Women National Network (CVWN)</li> <li>Conflict Victims Common Platform (CVCP)</li> <li>Conflict Victims National Alliance (CVNA)</li> <li>Conflict Victims Orphans Society (CVOS)</li> <li>Conflict Victims Society for Justice (CVSJ)</li> <li>Conflict Victims’ Rights Forum, Myagdi</li> <li>Democratic Freedom and Human Rights Institute (DFHRI)</li> <li>Ganesh Ujjan Foundation</li> <li>Human Rights and Justice Centre (HRJC)</li> <li>Human Rights for Justice</li> <li>Human Rights Organizations Nepal (HURON)</li> <li>Informal Sector Service Centre (INSEC)</li> <li>Legal Aid and Consultancy Centre Nepal (LACC)</li> <li>Maina Bal Bikash Samiti</li> <li>Nagarik Aawaz (NA)</li> <li>National Alliance of Women Human Rights Defenders</li> <li>National Network of Disabled Conflict Victims (NNDCV)</li> <li>Nepal Forum for Restorative Justice</li> <li>Tarangini Foundation</li> <li>The Story Kitchen</li> <li>Voices of Women Media (VOW Media)</li></ol>Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia director at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/justice-delayed-justice-denied/">Human Rights Watch, said in a statement issued jointly with Amnesty International, the International Commission of Jurists and TRIAL International</a> on 21 November: ‘State officials’ reluctance to investigate and prosecute such serious crimes has exacerbated the suffering of victims, undermined the rule of law in post-conflict Nepal, and increased the risk of such violations in the future.’She went on to warn: ‘If justice is continually denied in Nepal, perpetrators of these international crimes committed during the conflict will be prosecuted abroad under international jurisdiction.’Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/toothless-commissions/">Toothless commissions</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/">Rocky transition to justice</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/">It’s a crime not to call it terrorism</a>, Kunda Dixit

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Nepal Speaker’s IPU trip slammed

<img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71679c7e80680e0600ccjpeg.jpg" alt=""/> NCP parliamentarian Agni Sapkota has been elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, despite ongoing protests against his candidacy. Sapkota, of former Maoist faction, has been accused of murder during the conflict.  Fourteen years after the end of the conflict, a series of controversial actions by leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) have raised doubts about their commitment to transitional justice, the most glaring of them bring the appointment of Agni Sapkota to succeed Krishna Bahadur Mahara as Parliament Speaker. (Sapkota is pictured above on Tuesday after having registered his name for the candidacy.)  Nepal’s cybersphere had poured scorn over a person accused of murder replacing someone charged with rape when all the while a highly qualified female candidate, deputy speaker Shivamaya Tumbahangphe, was available for the post.  Sapkota has been accused of ordering the murder of Arjun Lama, a UML activist, in Kavre in 2005. Ironically, the UML is now a partner with the former Maoists in the NCP.In 2010, Agni Sapkota was denied a US visa for ‘serious and specific human rights allegations associated with his conduct during the insurgency’. He was earlier also prevented from going to Australia. “Theoretically, the Speaker should be someone able to rise above the party line, and not someone controversial. That does not seem the case with Sapkota,” said political analyst Krishna Khanal. “In fact, that has never been the case in Nepal. The Speaker’s post has always been a launching pad for those interested in higher political status.” The appointment of the Speaker was deadlocked for more than a month by the power struggle between Prime Minister Oli and his would-be successor Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Sapkota was Dahal’s choice, and Oli wanted a loyalist from his former UML party: neither supported Tumbahangphe’s nomination.At a farewell press conference this week, the fiery Tumbahangphe lashed out at her own party leadership for not trusting a woman to do the job, saying: “We succeeded in abolishing the monarchy, but we still need to work hard to abolish patriarchy.”Human rights activist Bhojraj Timilsina from Sapkota’s home district of Kavre said: “A person accused of such grave crimes should be investigated like anyone else.” But few expect that to happen. Of Sapkota’s nomination, Lama’s wife Purnimaya Tamang said: “Now I have lost all hope of justice.”In another move, the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) joined the ruling NCP to appoint apparatchiks to vacant posts in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission for Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) despite strong opposition from activists.The two parties did hold a consultation with victims’ groups about the nominations, but the consultation was boycotted by many and was condemned as a merely cosmetic gesture. “This is just a ploy by leaders to give legitimacy to their nominations and it is not acceptable to us,” says Bhagiram Chaudhari of Conflict Victims’ Common Platform. “It also mocks the rule of law, and gives a negative impression of the country in the international arena.”Last week NCP co-chair and former Maoist leader Dahal said he took responsibility “only” for 5,000 of the 17,000 Nepalis killed in the conflict. Dahal’s irreverence about war-era crimes was seen as a mockery of the rule of law. Since 2006, the Maoists under Dahal and later the NCP have tried to turn both the TRC and the CIEDP into pawns and prevent prosecution of perpetrators of proven wartime atrocities. “These are troubling signs,” wrote Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia Director of Human Rights Watch, on Tuesday. “International crimes cannot be brushed away with political trickery. If justice is denied in Nepal, victims may be forced to take their cases to courts abroad.”

Speechless

<figure><img width="1101" height="734" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71199c7e80680e0600b1jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Agni Sapkota after registering his name as candidate for the post of Speaker of House of Representatives. Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Fourteen years after the end of the conflict, a slew of controversial decisions and pronouncements by leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in the past two weeks has raised doubts about its commitment to resolve issues of transitional justice.Families of the 1,400 disappeared are still waiting for the truth of what happened, victims of war crimes want justice, while many thousands who were wounded, tortured, raped, or lost property during the conflict still awaiting compensation.There has been a bi-partisan resistance on the part of the NCP and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) to address <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE-VRNrZHcLkqbC8jkCHAF_ibxycA">wartime atrocities </a>and provide closure to the families of victims and survivors.In fact, the former enemies are now not just the state. The Maoists, who killed and persecuted many from the former UML party have now unified under the same NCP banner.  Last week NCP co-chair and former Maoist leader who has become prime minister twice, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, said in a speech in Chitwan that he took responsibility “only” for 5,000 of the 17,000 Nepalis killed in the conflict. He said the security forces had killed the rest. Since 2006, the Maoists under Dahal and later the NCP has tried to make both the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on Enforced Disappearances toothless and ineffectual bodies. He has also tried to prevent prosecution of those who perpetrated proven war atrocities from the courts.Last week, the NCP and the NC agreed on political appointees to the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/victims-waiting-for-justice,698" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/victims-waiting-for-justice,698&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHUuaxDbFVqw17VQ--TLTMNticNDA">Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission for Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP)</a> despite strong opposition from conflict victims’ groups and human rights activists.The term of officials from both Commissions expired 14 months ago, and since then the posts have been vacant. They received many depositions from families of victims and survivors of war crimes, but not a single case has been taken to the courts.<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/victims-unhappy-nepal-revives-transitional-justice-process-200113082330798.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/victims-unhappy-nepal-revives-transitional-justice-process-200113082330798.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNLYmm0mKKfi3hRpUx1RzZgp-Kdw">A three hour “consultation” </a> with victims’ groups was widely condemned as a merely cosmetic gesture and boycotted by many. The <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/12/nepal-reform-transitional-justice-law" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/12/nepal-reform-transitional-justice-law&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEk_5tXidhL25wkpdDcMoqNDvzPEQ">transitional justice law has still not been amended</a>, although the Supreme Court struck down key provisions that could grant amnesty to perpetrators back in 2015.‘These are troubling signs,” wrote <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/20/nepal-falters-justice-pledge-conflict-abuses" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/20/nepal-falters-justice-pledge-conflict-abuses&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNETrSeFLGj4NDuqkmKnIeZICLNc3A">Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia Director of Human Rights Watch</a> on Tuesday. ‘International crimes cannot be brushed away with political trickery. If justice is denied in Nepal, victims may be forced to take their cases to courts abroad.’The last straw was the NCP’s appointment as the new Speaker of Parliament former Maoist commander <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/05/31/hearing-set-for-case-against-minister-agni-sapkota/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/05/31/hearing-set-for-case-against-minister-agni-sapkota/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGnI_YaxpLVDZmW6JcksaCRY1wCGA">Agni Sapkota</a> who is accused of executing a UML activist in Kavre, Arjun Lama in 2005.  <img width="594" height="142" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b711b9c7e80680e0600b2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="591" height="289" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b711c9c7e80680e0600b3jpeg.jpg" alt="">The cruel irony of it is that the UML is now a part of the NCP. Also, a person charged with murder has replaced former Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who is charged with rape, over-stepping <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-speaker-no-parliament-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shivamaya Tumbahengphe</a> of the NCP who had a rightful claim to be a Speaker.The government has not yet investigated Sapkota’s involvement in Lama’s murder. His wife <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/111027" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/111027&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579677544059000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEJpCkhE239E86oZOgjhD6meLK_DQ">Purnamaya Lama </a>said: “Now, I have lost all hope of justice.”In 2010, Agni Sapkota was denied a US visa for ‘serious and specific human rights allegations associated with his conduct during the insurgency’. He was earlier also prevented from going to Australia.

14 years after conflict, no closure in Nepal

<figure><img width="1200" height="733" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121136/636a3f989c7e80680e04a5d4jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: HIMALKHABAR.COM</figcaption></figure>While the Government of Nepal is taking pains to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Rights-right-here-at-home,3956" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polish its human rights image internationally</a>, its actions at home belie the perception of a global rights champion.Nepal became a member of the revamped UN Human Rights Council (HRC) in 2018 for the first time, for a term running until 2020. On 27 February 2019, Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali addressed the HRC, telling it Nepal had embarked on the final leg of the peace process by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-transition-to-peace-needs-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extending the terms of two commissions</a>: one on truth and reconciliation, the other on enforced disappearances.  <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The process</a> would be guided by the Comprehensive Peace Accord of 2006, Supreme Court directives, international human rights commitments, victims’ concerns and ground realities, Gyawali assured the HRC. Subsequently, the government put on an elaborate and insincere act to amend the Act, even asking representatives of the international community in Kathmandu for their suggestions. It was a ruse. As a result, on 12 April five HRC officials wrote to the government pointing out <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/just-not-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shortcomings in the truth and reconciliation process,</a> including the ‘reported lack of impartiality, independence and transparency’ in the selection of new heads of the two commissions. While the government takes pains to show the world that it is working for those who suffered rights violations during the 1996-2006 conflict, and their families, at home a proposed law threatens to weaken the national institution tasked with ensuring the human rights of all Nepalis — the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). A proposed amendment to the NHRC Act 2012 would require the rights body to have its recommendations for action against perpetrators of alleged violations vetted by the attorney general. This is despite the fact that the NHRC is a constitutional body, a status given in the Interim Constitution in 2007 precisely so that the NHRC can investigate alleged violations independent of government interference. In fact, the 2012 NHRC Act contained the same provision, section 17 (10), until it was declared null and void by the Supreme Court on 6 March 2013, following a challenge by lawyer Om Prakash Aryal. The court ruled that as a constitutional body, the NHRC was capable and empowered to decide if a case should be pursued and that the attorney general could not overrule such decisions.The revised Act, discussed by the parliamentary committee on law, justice and human rights this week, would reintroduce 17 (10) in slightly different wording, then go a step further by giving the AG the power to ask the NHRC to conduct criminal investigations. Ironically, when Nepal was campaigning for governments to support its bid for an HRC seat in Geneva, it noted in a note verbale: ‘The  National Human Rights Commission, established as an independent statutory body in 2000, has now been elevated to a powerful constitutional body with a commensurate mandate, competence and independence.’And in his HRC speech in February, Gyawali called Nepal a ‘pioneer’ for mainstreaming the global rights agenda into its national policies and plans. Yet since the NHRC came into being in 2000, just 12.5% percent of its 810 recommendations have been fully implemented, 48.3% were implemented partially and 39.2% are under consideration. Even those statistics are misleading as the only recommendations acted upon concern compensation — those calling for action against perpetrators have been ignored.Notably, all political parties that have held power in the past two decades have failed the NHRC, including the opposition groups now railing against the proposed amendments.The NHRC reportedly recommended 17 changes to the revised NHRC Act 2012, all of which were ignored in the version sent to Parliament. The root of the ingrained culture of impunity and lack of accountability in Nepal today is the many perpetrators who literally got away with mass murder in the past. While truth-telling and compensation are important, without <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/justice-in-transition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">justice</a> being seen to be done, the peace process will never really be over, as we have seen with a Maoist faction still on the war path.Now that victims are in agreement and the way forward has been clearly laid out by the Supreme Court and international law, what’s also needed to finally advance on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/12-years-later-justice-is-a-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice</a> is a fresh slate of commissioners in both the enforced disappearances and truth and reconciliation bodies.In February, Gyawali announced Nepal’s candidacy for a second HRC term, from 2021 to 2023. That election will be decided primarily on geopolitical considerations, but the Nepal government could help its own cause by finally addressing the demand for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-struggle-for-transitional-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">truth and justice</a> so conflict victims and their families can have closure, and by ensuring the independence of the NHRC. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s effort to sack Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal and replace him with his nominee earned Dahal India’s wrath, as Prashant Jha <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15898#.XMqu5jAzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote in his column Plain Speaking</a> in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/449" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#449 edition of Nepali Times</a> of 1-8 May 2009.The army row gives us a glimpse of India’s concerns, its power and limits. The Maoists have been relatively successful in portraying the opposition to sacking General Katawal as India-inspired, and an unacceptable interference in Nepal’s internal affairs. What they forget is that they would still be in the jungles fighting an unwinnable war if not for India’s mediation. If Nepal’s political class had succeeded in mounting a solely domestic opposition to the royal regime, if they had not rushed to Delhi to instrumentally use India to advance their own partisan interests, they could have told the Indians to keep away.The reality is that this peace process is essentially a compact between India (which acted as a guarantor of the 12-point deal and later got the army on board), the Maoists (who promised to accept multiparty democracy) and the NC (which agreed to dump the monarchy). And now, the Maoists suddenly remember that domestic political decisions are none of India’s business.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/449"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121136/636a3f9b9c7e80680e04a5d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="508" height="812"></a>

Nepal’s human rights act

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

war-crime