<figure><img width="2872" height="1592" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd8d9c7e80680e0a0beejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The vast glacial debris field at Bhurmathang in the headwaters of the Melamchi River, which is being constantly washed down by heavy rains this monsoon. Photos: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>This year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon season</a> showed that precipitation is moving higher up the mountains to the trans-Himalayan valleys, creating a whole new dimension of flood danger downstream.More rain is falling where it did not use to in rain-shadow regions like in Manang, Mustang, Dolpo. Heavy precipitation on loose glacial deposits have unleashed catastrophic debris flows like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">what is happening on the Melamchi watershed</a> this season.Some of these extreme weather events can be attributed to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a>, and underlines the need to be prepared for even worse floods in future. For this, we urgently need weather forecasting systems at higher altitudes, hazard mapping and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/texting-when-trouble,3857" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">early warning systems</a>.Heavy rainfall since June and the ensuing floods clearly showed that we lack high altitude weather stations above 3,000m. And even the monitoring stations at lower altitudes did not analyse the recorded data in time and transmit them in a timely manner. <figure><img width="1680" height="1111" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd909c7e80680e0a0befjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has installed only 12 weather and precipitation monitoring stations above 3,000m, out of 282 such stations across the country. Mustang district has 6 precipitation stations, Gorkha and Manang each have two stations, and there are only one in Doti and Jumla.These numbers are insufficient given Nepal’s topography and the rapidly changing global climate. The lesson from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this year’s floods</a> is that every hydropower or infrastructure project needs to install its own automatic precipitation station in its upper catchment for real time data and early warning.The rainfall station at Sermathang of Sindhupalchok did record 110.2 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 11 June, but this data was not analysed in time to transmit a warning and prevent floods. If it had, we would have known that a cloudburst of that magnitude in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">terrain weakened by the 2015 earthquake</a> could spell disaster. Precautions could have been taken downstream in the Melamchi-Indrawati valley, lives saved, and damage reduced.Nepal has four main glacier-fed river basins: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kosi</a>, Gandaki, Karnali and Mahakali, and 19 other sub-river basins. The catchment areas of these rivers also stretch across the Himalaya into China. There are 3,808 glaciers and 2,070 glacial lakes in Nepal. And then there is also permafrost above 5,000m. (Map, below) <figure><img width="665" height="380" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd949c7e80680e0a0bf0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s rivers are fed by groundwater discharge, monsoon rains, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial melt</a>. However, the hydrological responses of snow-covered and glaciated zones are distinct from other areas. Debris deposits from past glacial advances behave differently when exposed to heavy rainfall, as we continue to witness in Bhrumathang region of the Melamchi River since June.  Climate change is now affecting both the monsoon dynamics and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">state of snow/glacier in the Himalaya</a>, and we have to aware and prepared for the consequences.Besides extreme weather events, the geological structure of the watershed also needs to be taken into account so that a detailed risk assessment can be made before embarking on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expensive water supply projects like Melamchi</a>, and deciding on the location of future hydropower plants, bridges and roads.Past studies had already declared many areas of the Melamchi watershed as a hazardous zone and not suitable for construction of houses and other infrastructure. If such warnings had been heard and timely precautions taken, the damage this monsoon would have been considerably less.Based on the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, all Nepal maximum and minimum air temperatures increased by 0.56 oC and 0.02 oC per decade from 1971 to 2014. The w<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/mountainous-regions-face-catastrophic-impacts-without-urgent-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">arming is higher in the Himalayan region</a> than elsewhere. This means that even under the best-case scenario, the Himalaya could lose up to one-third more of its permanent ice during this century.This means increased hazard from snow and ice avalanches, flash floods due to the discharge of supra-glacial lakes, or Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). There is a danger that these disasters to be more intense and frequent as weather systems change.In October 2014, the power cyclone Hudhud which measured 2,000km in diameter spun out of the Bay of Bengal and made a direct hit on Central Nepal, dumping rain and snow in the Annapurna region, killing 43 people (including trekkers) in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/annapurnas-avalanche-and-blizzard-early-weather-warning-systems" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">blizzards and avalanche</a>.Indian and Nepali meteorologists had sent out warnings and forecast heavy precipitation, however due to the lack of proper risk reduction mechanisms and safety management skills, casualties were high.In January 2020, four Korean trekkers and three Nepali guides were swept away by an avalanche at Deurali on the Annapurna Base Camp trek. Although there has always been risk of avalanches in the Himalaya, very heavy snowfall with warming trends have increased the objective danger. Proper local forecasts could have warned trekkers in the area of the heightened risk.In two of the worst disasters in recent times, 42 people, including 13 Japanese trekkers, were killed in November 1996 when the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/saving-gokyo-from-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gokyo region</a> near Mt Everest was hit by an unprecedented blizzard. In October 2005, 18 people including trekkers were killed in snow storms and avalanches in Manang.These and many other disasters show that post-monsoon cyclonic storms hitting Nepal at the peak of the trekking season must be more closely monitored and their local impact forecast accurately so early warning for specific areas can be issued. Fatalities can be reduced by finding ways to warn local communities, lodge owners, local governments, trekking outfits and guides, and build local capacity in search and rescue.The importance of having high altitude weather and snow monitoring stations was also shown by the sudden increase in snow depth (1.65m) on the Rikha Samba Glacier in Mustang (5,200m) during the Hudhud cyclone on 15 October 2014. (See graph below.) <figure><img width="515" height="304" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd969c7e80680e0a0bf1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A similar snow depth sensor on Yala Glacier in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/langtang-copes-with-quake-and-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Langtang Valley</a> also showed 0.5m increase in snow depth on the same day. Although the purpose of these stations were for scientific research into the impact of climate change on snow depth, and not for hazard prevention, the data could have been used for early warning about storm hazards in the high mountains.The lesson for us is that it is essential and urgent to strengthen the capacity of snow hazard risk reduction by letting local governments and communities have access to real-time data.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya has seen historic GLOFs</a>, and these debris flows are expected to be bigger and more frequent with climate change. On 4 August 1985, the Dig Tso glacial lake overtopped after an avalanche and swept down the Dudh Kosi, killing three and destroying a hydropower plant, 14 bridges and 35 houses.The disaster prompted the government to start studying glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal, and major GLOF events have been recorded (see table). Risk reduction has also involved lowering the water level of Tso Rolpa glacial lake in Rolwaling by 3m and Imja glacial lake  in Khumbu by 3.4m. <figure><img width="456" height="137" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd989c7e80680e0a0bf2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A recent study by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) classified 47 glacial lakes in Nepal, China and India as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">potentially dangerous</a>. Of these, 25 are in China, 21 in Nepal and 1 in India. Of the potentially dangerous lakes in Nepal, 17 are on the Arun River basin, out of which only 4 are in Nepal and 13 upstream in China. Most of the immediate risk to infrastructure and settlements in the Arun River, therefore, emanate from across the border and this calls for trans-boundary cooperation in early warning. On 18 June 2021, heavy rainfall triggered <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides blocked the Rongsi River in China</a>, a tributary of the Tama Kosi. The Chinese authorities informed Nepal about the possibility of a flashflood in case the landslide dam was breached. Fortunately, the Chinese safely drained the lake averting the possibility of a flood. In such events also, a high altitude weather and snow monitoring station would have provided early warning so that precautions could be taken downstream.Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, PhD, is a glaciologist at the Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center of Kathmandu University.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfd999c7e80680e0a0bf3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="89" height="104">

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Nepal needs weather stations in the Himalaya

<figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91fe9c7e80680e06f121jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A landslide in Jajarkot last year. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>By any measure, the past year has been disastrous for Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdowns devastated the economy, the 2020 monsoon killed a record number of people, and this year the second wave hit with full force even as governance was paralysed by a prolonged power struggle in the ruling party. Now, Nepalis are bracing themselves for their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second monsoon season during the pandemic</a>, one which meteorological modellers say could dump above normal precipitation over most parts of the country.The other difference with last year is that the second Covid-19 wave is even more virulent and widespread. This means crowded shelters after a flood or landslide will be hotspots for new infections at a time when only 4% of the population is vaccinated.“Covid and floods are contradictory in nature, as one needs physical distancing while the other makes it impossible to do so. This will add to the existing burden,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “We can’t prevent floods, but we can reduce its impact. We must concentrate on identifying risk groups and their emergency evacuation, set up shelters with physical distancing, stockpile tents, food and emergency medicines including oral rehydration salts and water purifiers.”Even though last year’s southwest monsoon was said to be 'normal' in Nepal, it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggered numerous flash floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 400 people and destroying over 1,000 houses. Entire villages in Sindhupalchok, Jajarkot, Myagdi, Baglung, Kalikot and Bajura districts were buried. The South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall for most of Nepal this year, with more than usual precipitation in most of the Mahabharat and Himalaya, and slightly deficient rainfall in the eastern Tarai. <figure><img width="2081" height="1260" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92019c7e80680e06f122jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"There is a possibility of floods, landslides and other water-related disasters occurring together during the third and fourth week of July this year when the second wave of the pandemic will still be peaking,” states the government’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan 2021. The probability of flash-floods and landslides are even higher this year because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the wildfires</a>. There were 7,000 fires affecting 75 of Nepal’s 77 districts from November 2020 to May 2021, the highest number ever recorded.  The fires reduced forested slopes to ashes, incinerated the undergrowth, thus reducing the absorptive capacity of the soil. When the rains come, the water will therefore rush down the slopes instead of seeping into the topsoil. “This year’s rainfall is forecast to be higher than last year's average. Based on this analysis, it can be estimated that there will be a significant increase in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides and floods</a> during this year's monsoon,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. She adds: “Forecasting is preparedness in some ways. But it has to be effectively communicated, so if we are to wait until landslides have occurred to act, it’s too late and there is no point.” <figure><img width="1050" height="701" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92049c7e80680e06f123jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the past, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the government has faced criticism</a> for prioritising relief over prevention. This could change with the formation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), which works primarily on preparedness and mitigating risk, while delegating more rescue responsibility to first-responders in local governments.“In earlier years landslides were not discussed as part of our monsoon preparedness plan, only floods were, and this year we set landslides as a priority for preparedness and response also looking at the intersection of wildfires, Covid-19 and the monsoon,” says Anil Pokhrel, who heads NDRRMA that has produced a workplan for monsoon preparedness and response. The NDRRMA with DHM recently trained officials in 36 municipalities in nine of the most high-risk districts (Myagdi, Gorkha, Kalikot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchok, Bajhang, Jajarkot, Syangja and Dailekh) on Impact Based Forecasting which predicts extreme weather events so that at-risk groups can be ready. “We are dealing not just with floods and landslides this time, but also Covid-19. Local communities are setting up rapid response teams to best prevent an outbreak in shelters and maintain health protocols, and spreading awareness through FM radio in local languages,” says Liladhar Adhikari of the NDRRMA. Despite the ‘above normal’ forecast in the models, climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal expects the monsoon to even out unless Nepal experiences cloudbursts over the Mahabharat and Chure ranges. These sudden heavy showers have been the cause of the deadliest floods and landslides in recent years. “We now have the technology to predict localised cloudbursts through Impact Based Forecasting which is crucial in saving lives, all we need now is real-time action so local communities get advance warning,” says Dahal.But predicting and determining the impact of floods and landslides only from the perspective of weather gives us an incomplete picture. The climate crisis has changed precipitation patterns and made extreme weather events more frequent and destructive. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Poorly designed and built roads, bad engineering</a>, and unplanned settlements have disturbed fragile mountain slopes, making them more disaster-prone.“We have in recent times recorded 105mm rain per hour in Surkhet, 100mm in Bajhang and 73 in Kulekhani which is a clear indication that the monsoon is getting more intense, but we are only now trying to understand this trend,” says Dahal. “We need to see whether there are indeed more frequent cloudbursts, or if the disasters are more noticed because they affect new settlements in floodplains and roads that follow river banks.” <figure><img width="1174" height="770" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92079c7e80680e06f124jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>At the NDRRMA, Liladhar Adhikari agrees that in addition to rapid response and rescue, a new development model is crucial in preventing multiple hazards in the long term. “New infrastructure has to adhere to environmental safeguards so that they do not drastically alter the rural landscape and make them more vulnerable to disasters.”Unfortunately, Nepal’s approach to development has been at the expense of nature preservation. The annual budget announced last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will allow quarrying</a> on the already-unstable slopes of Himalayan foothills to export stones and aggregates to India.Epidemiologist Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa has been to several emergency shelters recently, and points out that there is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/uneven-pandemic-impact-on-nepali-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">additional burden on women during disasters</a>.  She says: “Like before and during this coronavirus crisis, women are especially vulnerable in the aftermath of a disaster, we must support them with security in shelters, physical and mental health care during this monsoon in the middle of a pandemic.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a36999c7e80680e048319jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Tornado in Bara. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>This is the season for windstorms, and even though the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whirlwind</a> that hit the central Tarai on 31 March killing 28 people was a freak event, it was not the first to touch down in our part of the world.Novelist Amitabh Ghosh begins his 2016 non-fiction book, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/book-reviews-new-year-2074,3654" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable</a>, with his personal encounter with a funnel-shaped tornado that struck New Delhi on 17 March 1978. It killed 70 and injured 700 in just 2 minutes.Ghosh writes that the Indian Meterological Service said at the time: ‘This was, in effect, the first tornado to hit Delhi—and indeed the entire region—in recorded meteorological history.’Birganj-based journalist Chandra Kishore remembers a similar devastating vortex that destroyed parts of his Tarai village in the mid-1980s. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/toll-expected-to-double-to-50-in-tornado/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In Pheta</a> on the night of 31 March, most of the deaths were due to poorly built structures, not the actual tornado, proving once again that it is shoddily-built houses that kill people not natural events.When Ghosh encountered the tornado in 1978 in New Delhi, the Earth’s atmosphere had 334ppm (parts per million) of carbon dioxide. In the 19th century, before the industrial age, it was 280ppm. By 2019, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased to 411ppm, most of it because of fossil fuel emissions.With so much carbon in the atmosphere, climate change is no longer something that will happen in a distant future — <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it is happening now</a>. Events like the Tarai tornado are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-normal-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our new normal</a> and highlight the growing impacts of an erratic climate and its rising social and economic cost. No country is immune, all countries have to adapt and also cut their emissions by switching to renewable energy.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=25490&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal's electric transport future is here</a>, Sonia AwaleNepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) collects wind speed data at the airport to assist flight operations, for academic assessment of wind energy potentials and for designing buildings and infrastructure. Wind hazards have always been there, but death and destruction of the scale that Pheta witnessed has not been part of our understanding.As an under-budgeted and under-staffed entity, the DHM has the lowest priority from the Nepali state, preventing it from becoming a repository of climate knowledge. As one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, Nepal needs to upgrade its weather forecasting and early warning.The Pheta tragedy revealed a major gap in the DHM’s ability to ‘nowcast’ weather, the process of warning people about what is likely to happen in the next few hours at a spatial resolution of a few square kilometres. The department needs to be able to provide local, short-term forecasting, perhaps by collaborating with others like Tribhuvan University’s Physics Department.The twister also exposed gaps in our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disaster management institutions</a>. Nepal’s 2017 Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act has replaced the 1982 Natural Calamity Relief Act, so there are now 15 legal tools and guidelines covering the entire disaster cycle. However, these have not been contextualised for our local situation, where the understanding of national policies and laws is still limited.The Ministry of Home Affairs held a meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Committee on 5 April, chaired by the Home Affairs Minister himself. It issued a 13-point decision to expedite relief and increase preparedness for the coming monsoon season.Province 2 has also taken a number of decisions including one to build prefabricated houses for the Pheta victims within four months. The government in Kathmandu, however, decided to assign the Nepal Army to rebuild the damaged houses. The army played a commendable role in rescue and relief efforts during the 2015 earthquake and in other disasters, but it is worth asking why it needs to be involved in reconstruction of private homes.The Nepal Army is there to defend our borders and be the first responder in a disaster; building houses is not its job. Reconstruction requires working iteratively with local governments to support victims in self-recovery and building back safer without reproducing past vulnerabilities. The National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) already has a track record of helping earthquake-affected families build houses, and it could have easily been assigned that responsibility in Pheta.Such complex institutional dynamics often create more constraints than solutions, at a time when there are new challenges due to climate change-induced disasters. Nepal’s national, provincial and local governments, and society by and large, do not have the necessary wherewithal to adapt and are the least prepared. The poor are the most vulnerable, and as Pheta proved, are likely going to pay the highest price.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Life in the time of tornadoes

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Nepal needs weather stations in the Himalaya

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit

Life in the time of tornadoes