<figure><img width="624" height="468" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161124/636d17a59c7e80680e0ac77bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>China's Nepali students still stuck in Kathmandu stage a demonstration requesting for their return to their universities. </figcaption></figure>Nepali students in Chinese universities who had come home for holidays during the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/learning-during-the-pandemic-in-nepal/">pandemic</a> have been stuck for two years, unable to return and complete their degrees. Since China formally closed its doors for international students in February 2020, those who had come to Nepal for the winter break in December 2019 and the initial days of the pandemic are still stranded in Kathmandu. Their hopes of completing their studies and career prospects are in limbo.  “My gap year is coming to an end but I’m confused about what steps to take next, I haven’t received any guidelines on conducting medical internships in Nepal,” says Praveer Raj Singh, a medical student at Peking University who has been stuck in Nepal for nearly two years.Away from universities and having to attend <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lockdown-gives-distance-learning-a-boost-in-nepal/">online classes</a> has left Nepali students deeply anxious and desperate, prompting some of them to join WeChat groups like ‘Nepal-China Returning Students’ to organise discussions and initiating petitions to apply pressure on the governments of both Nepal and China as well as their universities. <figure><img width="624" height="351" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161124/636d17a79c7e80680e0ac77cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Nepali medical students studying at Chinese universities stage a protest.</figcaption></figure>Across these WeChat groups, there are new petitions every few days asking students for personal information, which is redundant as every international student studying in China is already required to complete their registration procedure with their details.Since the beginning of the pandemic, China has introduced strict rules for foreign arrivals. Although the novel coronavirus appears to have started here, China has been more successful than most countries in bringing the pandemic under control.The Chinese Communist Party, which recently celebrated its 100th anniversary, does not want to jeopardise its domestic stability ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics. Hence, China is unlikely to allow international students to return anytime soon, notwithstanding protests or petitions.A more effective approach would be for official in Kathmandu to talk to their Chinese counterparts at a government-to-government level, since that fits in better with China’s top-down approach to doing things.Furthermore, due to the existing language barrier and China’s restrictive internet policies like ‘The Great Firewall’, concerns that are primarily raised in English through platforms like Twitter and Instagram have little to no reach in China. Students have managed to raise awareness, but among themselves and not on the right platforms.  Articles written in Mandarin by Chinese authors about the situation of international students do not have enough reach either, since they have mostly been from personal WeChat blogs. Mainstream Chinese media on the other hand has not touched the issue of international students, and there has been no discussion on popular interactive social media platforms like Weibo, which has over 500 million active users. Similarly, the complaints and petitions brought up by students are mostly conveyed in English or Nepali, which are not effective with a Chinese audience. Student protest is a widely used tool to pressure the authorities and fulfil demands for change in Nepali colleges and universities. That process will not work in China, or with Chinese universities. The petitions and protests may be heard, but do not guarantee sufficient pressure for those in decision-making positions. In fact, students who once believed in protests have since lost hope. An informal survey on WeChat groups by over 100 Nepali students waiting to go back to universities revealed that the majority no longer believe it is a route that can help them return to China. <figure><img width="542" height="413" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161124/636d17a99c7e80680e0ac77djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>“Nepali Students in China” Twitter account campaigning to return Nepali students back to China</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwi4lfifvqvzAhWi83MBHaD0AtsQFnoECAwQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fenglish.khabarhub.com%2F2021%2F30%2F200079%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw0XGPpCjNLLSeJI0wihXTdA">Nepali political leaders and the Nepal embassy in China also have been raising the issue with the Chinese authorities</a>, but so far to no avail. Most international students in China do not seem concerned about classmates from other nationalities not returning, and do not raise the issue with their respective universities.  Students who remained in China in 2019 feel lucky to not have rushed back home during the peak of the pandemic. One of them is Aayush Maskey, an undergraduate student of Xidian University in Xi’an.   “There are several opportunities for international students who stayed on  campus, the universities sponsored several city tours,” says Maskey, whose classes are still mostly online but he has a better prospect of jobs and internship opportunities. He is now the face for his university’s promotional campaigns, and has benefited from in-person interactions.  China will eventually let international students in, but only when its government wants to. Until then, the only thing the students can do as what they have been doing since the beginning of the pandemic: wait for further notice. Suniva Chitrakar is an undergraduate student majoring in International Political Economy at Peking University. Aneka R Rajbhandari is pursuing her Master’s degree in Chinese Politics from the Silk Road School, Renmin University.

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China’s Nepali students in limbo

<figure><img width="1500" height="842" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cec6f9c7e80680e09ad65jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>China’s new batch of medical supplies for Nepal published in Global Times.</figcaption></figure>The Covid-19 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-nears-10k-daily-cases/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second wave ravaging Nepal</a> has raised concern in China’s social media platform Weibo, and prompted some to post appeals for the government to help the neighbouring country in its time of need.The coronavirus surge <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mom-in-delhi-dad-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sweeping India and Nepal</a> has been creating a significant buzz on China’s social media platforms, with comments expressing compassion as well as nationalistic outbursts at the situation in India. Recent news that China was sending a new consignment of medical equipment to Nepal, as well as posts about mismanagement of the Covid-19 surge in India has sparked discussion among the Chinese netizens. The news of the steep rise in cases in Nepal started being reported in the western media mostly after Covid-19 cases were detected at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/everests-covid-dilemma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mt Everest Base Camp</a>. It was only in the past week that the alarming news from Nepal started gaining traction here.The posts appear to reflect residual nationalism from the India-China border conflagration last year, and geopolitical tension between the two Asian giants -- which could not be more different in the way they have tackled the pandemic.One of the most prominent <a href="http://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23%E5%B0%BC%E6%B3%8A%E5%B0%94%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%85%E9%80%9F%E6%81%B6%E5%8C%96%23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hashtags, </a> #尼泊尔疫情为何迅速恶化 (translation: ‘Why the pandemic is rapidly worsening in Nepal’) gained 55 million engagements in 24 hours this week. Even though the hashtag concerns Nepal, most of the posts and replies using it centred around India’s failure to contain the second wave.  <figure><img width="677" height="839" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131120/636cec739c7e80680e09ad66jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>CRI News coverage of the rate of positive cases in Nepal at 44% high using the hashtag #尼泊尔疫情为何迅速恶化（Why is the pandemic rapidly worsening in Nepal）</figcaption></figure>Some deliberately derogatory posts that seemed to rejoice in India’s tragedy were taken down after outrage on social media. One post tagging ‘China Lighting a Fire’ showing China’s rocket launch last week side-by-side with ‘<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56963996" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India Lighting a Fire</a>’ showing a mass-cremation site in Delhi drew so much backlash from Weibo users inside and outside China that it was deleted.The post was traced to the official Weibo account of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, which is under the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.   <figure><img width="895" height="936" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131120/636cec769c7e80680e09ad67jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A Weibo post tagging ‘China Lighting a Fire’ showing China’s rocket launch last week side-by-side with ‘India Lighting a Fire’ showing a mass-cremation site in Delhi was deleted after backlash from users.</figcaption></figure>The topic then shifted focus as Chinese netizens worried that Nepal’s Covid-19 spread and response will become similar as that in India. Indeed, the <a href="http://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23%E5%B0%BC%E6%B3%8A%E5%B0%94%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E4%BC%9A%E5%8F%98%E6%88%90%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hashtag</a> #尼泊尔是否变成下一个印度 (translation: “Will Nepal become the next India’) got over 80 million engagements and counting this week. On 8 May, Toutiao News, a major information portal followed the popularity of the hashtag and ran a rather unusual <a href="https://m.weibo.cn/status/4634582304164592?wm=3333_2001&amp;from=10B5093010&amp;sourcetype=weixin" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">week-long poll asking</a> Chinese netizens' opinion on whether ‘Nepal will become the next India’. More than 85% agreed with this possibility, and some even feared that the spread of the pandemic in Nepal could be worse than in India. While most posts have lumped Nepal and India together on the Covid-19 theme, others have drawn attention to the Nepal-China friendship and urged the Chinese government to help Nepal with emergency supplies.‘Isn’t Nepal a good friend of China? All efforts should be made to help them,’ said one post, while some others asked that immediate support be rushed to China’s ‘good neighbour’. Just as the western media’s concern about Nepal’s pandemic is largely limited to Mt Everest, the Chinese social media focus is India-centered. Global Times, China’s state-affiliated media, even ran a story highlighting how Chinese enterprises in Nepal were trying to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222721.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">prevent Nepal from becoming a ‘mini India’.</a>   <figure><img width="677" height="837" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131120/636cec789c7e80680e09ad68jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Toutiao News report on Nepal's surging COVID-19 cases using hashtag #尼泊尔正在变成一个迷你印度（Nepal is becoming a mini India)</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="677" height="750" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131120/636cec7b9c7e80680e09ad69jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Toutiao News’ week-long poll on whether Nepal will become the next India. Source: TOUTIAO</figcaption></figure>China has offered assistance to India to respond to the pandemic, and <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/firmly-support-india-in-fight-against-covid-19-wang-yi-writes-to-jaishankar-101619714772524.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">after a statement of concern by Foreign Minister Wang Yi</a> with an expression of support, many Chinese social media users have urged similar help for Nepal. Indeed, Beijing seems to be responding. A Nepal Airlines plane is flying to Beijing on Monday night to bring <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/08/c_139932642.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China’s offer of </a>20,000 oxygen cylinders and other medical essentials, as Nepal’s hospitals struggle to cope with the seriously ill. A similar flight last month brought back 800,000 doses of the Chinese VeroCell vaccine donated by China.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s vaccination program</a> has ground to a halt after an early promising start after India stopped further export of the Covishield AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured by the Serum Institute even though Nepal had already paid for 2 million doses.Social media posts here quote the Chinese saying ‘A close friend is better than a distant relative’, but others have also urged Nepal to improve its governance and delivery instead of just depending on the outside world for help.One Chinese social media post notes: ‘The spread of Covid-19 will make China a ‘thin horse’ so it should not just give assistance for free.” The growing debate on China’s foreign assistance, both at policy-making level and on social media, hints that countries like Nepal should focus more on early preparedness and control as most other countries grapple with their own Covid-19 crisis. Aneka Rebecca Rajbhandari studies political science at Peking University. Raunab Singh Khatri is a graduate student in economics at Yenching Academy of Peking University.

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Concern in China over Nepal Covid-19 surge

<figure><img width="1500" height="842" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b844e9c7e80680e067788jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>China’s new batch of medical supplies for Nepal published in Global Times.</figcaption></figure>The Covid-19 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-nears-10k-daily-cases/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second wave ravaging Nepal</a> has raised concern in China’s social media platform Weibo, and prompted some to post appeals for the government to help the neighbouring country in its time of need.The coronavirus surge <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mom-in-delhi-dad-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sweeping India and Nepal</a> has been creating a significant buzz on China’s social media platforms, with comments expressing compassion as well as nationalistic outbursts at the situation in India. Recent news that China was sending a new consignment of medical equipment to Nepal, as well as posts about mismanagement of the Covid-19 surge in India has sparked discussion among the Chinese netizens. The news of the steep rise in cases in Nepal started being reported in the western media mostly after Covid-19 cases were detected at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/everests-covid-dilemma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mt Everest Base Camp</a>. It was only in the past week that the alarming news from Nepal started gaining traction here.The posts appear to reflect residual nationalism from the India-China border conflagration last year, and geopolitical tension between the two Asian giants -- which could not be more different in the way they have tackled the pandemic.One of the most prominent <a href="http://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23%E5%B0%BC%E6%B3%8A%E5%B0%94%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E8%BF%85%E9%80%9F%E6%81%B6%E5%8C%96%23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hashtags, </a> #尼泊尔疫情为何迅速恶化 (translation: ‘Why the pandemic is rapidly worsening in Nepal’) gained 55 million engagements in 24 hours this week. Even though the hashtag concerns Nepal, most of the posts and replies using it centred around India’s failure to contain the second wave.  <figure><img width="677" height="839" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84519c7e80680e067789jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Some deliberately derogatory posts that seemed to rejoice in India’s tragedy were taken down after outrage on social media. One post tagging ‘China Lighting a Fire’ showing China’s rocket launch last week side-by-side with ‘<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56963996" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India Lighting a Fire</a>’ showing a mass-cremation site in Delhi drew so much backlash from Weibo users inside and outside China that it was deleted.The post was traced to the official Weibo account of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, which is under the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.   <figure><img width="895" height="936" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84549c7e80680e06778ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The topic then shifted focus as Chinese netizens worried that Nepal’s Covid-19 spread and response will become similar as that in India. Indeed, the <a href="http://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23%E5%B0%BC%E6%B3%8A%E5%B0%94%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E4%BC%9A%E5%8F%98%E6%88%90%E4%B8%8B%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hashtag</a> #尼泊尔是否变成下一个印度 (translation: “Will Nepal become the next India’) got over 80 million engagements and counting this week. On 8 May, Toutiao News, a major information portal followed the popularity of the hashtag and ran a rather unusual <a href="https://m.weibo.cn/status/4634582304164592?wm=3333_2001&amp;from=10B5093010&amp;sourcetype=weixin" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">week-long poll asking</a> Chinese netizens' opinion on whether ‘Nepal will become the next India’. More than 85% agreed with this possibility, and some even feared that the spread of the pandemic in Nepal could be worse than in India. While most posts have lumped Nepal and India together on the Covid-19 theme, others have drawn attention to the Nepal-China friendship and urged the Chinese government to help Nepal with emergency supplies.‘Isn’t Nepal a good friend of China? All efforts should be made to help them,’ said one post, while some others asked that immediate support be rushed to China’s ‘good neighbour’. Just as the western media’s concern about Nepal’s pandemic is largely limited to Mt Everest, the Chinese social media focus is India-centered. Global Times, China’s state-affiliated media, even ran a story highlighting how Chinese enterprises in Nepal were trying to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222721.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">prevent Nepal from becoming a ‘mini India’.</a>   <figure><img width="677" height="837" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84569c7e80680e06778bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="677" height="750" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84599c7e80680e06778cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>China has offered assistance to India to respond to the pandemic, and <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/firmly-support-india-in-fight-against-covid-19-wang-yi-writes-to-jaishankar-101619714772524.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">after a statement of concern by Foreign Minister Wang Yi</a> with an expression of support, many Chinese social media users have urged similar help for Nepal. Indeed, Beijing seems to be responding. A Nepal Airlines plane is flying to Beijing on Monday night to bring <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/08/c_139932642.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China’s offer of </a>20,000 oxygen cylinders and other medical essentials, as Nepal’s hospitals struggle to cope with the seriously ill. A similar flight last month brought back 800,000 doses of the Chinese VeroCell vaccine donated by China.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s vaccination program</a> has ground to a halt after an early promising start after India stopped further export of the Covishield AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured by the Serum Institute even though Nepal had already paid for 2 million doses.Social media posts here quote the Chinese saying ‘A close friend is better than a distant relative’, but others have also urged Nepal to improve its governance and delivery instead of just depending on the outside world for help.One Chinese social media post notes: ‘The spread of Covid-19 will make China a ‘thin horse’ so it should not just give assistance for free.” The growing debate on China’s foreign assistance, both at policy-making level and on social media, hints that countries like Nepal should focus more on early preparedness and control as most other countries grapple with their own Covid-19 crisis. Aneka Rebecca Rajbhandari studies political science at Peking University. Raunab Singh Khatri is a graduate student in economics at Yenching Academy of Peking University.

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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