<figure><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe124a9c7e80680e0da515jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Surbir BK has to make a daily one-hour roundtrip to fetch water after springs went dry in his village in Kavre. The dry spell has forced many young villagers to migrate. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>On average, Kathmandu Valley used to get about 95mm of rain between mid-October and mid-February. This winter, there has been zero precipitation.The last rainfall in Kathmandu was a late-monsoon shower on 12 October 2022. And while there was some rain and snow in Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces last month, the rest of the country has remained high and dry for nearly five months.This prolonged winter drought has affected farmers in a country where 65% of agricultural land is rainfed. The wildfire season has started early. Rivers are running low, reducing hydroelectricity production by more than half.The Meteorological Forecasting Division predicts that the dry spell will continue for at least two more weeks. In that case, this winter will be the driest in decades. Previous driest winters were in 2007-8 and 2016-17, but even then there was 10-15mm of rain between December and February.Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had used computer modelling to predict this winter’s drought due to the Pacific Lala Nina effect, and a Polar Vortex pushing the jetstream north of the Himalaya.“We don’t like to say we told you so, but the forecasts have been accurate,” says Binod Pokhrel, meteorologist at Tribhuvan University. “The westerlies that were supposed to bring winter rain in January vanished along the way. The seasonal forecast also shows that there won't be much precipitation in the March either, this increase wildfire risk." <figure><img width="1121" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe124e9c7e80680e0da516jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal gets more than 80% of its rain during the monsoon between June-September with a generally east-west rainfall gradient, except for the region around Pokhara which receives the country’s heaviest annual rainfall of nearly 4,000mm.The drought has also worsened winter air pollution in Kathmandu. There is no rain to wash down suspended dust particles. Smoke from wildfires have  worsened the Valley’s Air Quality Index.“Winter wheat, mustard, dal, barley and vegetable crops are affected,” says Januka Pandit at the Department of Agriculture. “The lack of snowfall this year will also affect the apple and corn crops at higher elevations because of the proliferation of pests.”Springs have gone dry right across the Himalayan foothills. Villagers have to trudge longer distances to fetch water for drinking and household use. In one village in Kavre, vegetable farmers have migrated to the city or abroad because of the lack of water.“They would still be here if there was enough water for the cabbage and mustard terraces,” said Surbir BK, who was making a one hour roundtrip trek to a community spring with a water jar strapped to his back.   <img width="633" height="357" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12519c7e80680e0da517jpeg.jpg" alt="">Hydroelectricity production has fallen by 72% compared to last year because of reduced flow on rivers. Suresh Bhattarai of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) explains: “Most of our electricity comes from run-of-the-river plants without storage reservoirs, when the flow drops so does the power they generate.”Nepal’s total installed capacity is now 2,300MW, but currently plants are only generating 700MW when total demand is 1,700MW. NEA is managing the shortfall with 500MW of imports. Even that is not enough and NEA is rationing power to industries.There is usually more water on Himalayan rivers during the spring thaw, but since there was no snow the flow is low. NEA expects the situation to improve only when the monsoon rains arrive in June.Average temperature across the country this winter has also been higher than normal. Lack of rain and higher temperatures increases the danger of wildfires, which in turn worsens air quality.Says Binod Pokhrel: “The fire risk this year is much higher. We are already seeing wildfires that used to start in April-May.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-the-air-in-bhaktapur-so-bad/">Why is the air in Bhaktapur so bad?</a>, Sushila Budathoki

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High and dry

October is buckwheat harvest time in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dazzling-dolpo/">distant highlands of Dolpo</a>. In the village of Tso, Namdak Sangmo watches other women from her village fling their sickles, stoop over to sling the sheaves on their shoulders, and bring the crop in. Sangmo, 68, does not have her own crop to harvest because she does not have any land anymore. Her riverside terraces were washed away by a flash flood in 2012, and another one in 2019 destroyed what was left, leaving a barren boulder-strewn slope. “It was a raging torrent, and it came down suddenly and swept everything in its path, I do not have any land left to farm,” says Sangmo. She is not the only one, almost half the villagers in Tso lost their standing crop and fields when a wall of mud and boulders raced down from the slopes of the 6,883m high Mt Kanjiroba that towers over the district. Scientists have not drawn a direct correlation between the climate crisis and extreme weather events like this, but they say there is evidence that droughts, record downpours, and erratic monsoons in the Himalaya are a result of a hotter atmosphere. This year’s monsoon has seen freak downpours and unprecedented rainfall in the trans-Himalayan regions of Nepal. Unseasonal rains this week unleashed deadly floods and landslides, especially in western Nepal. The Himalayan mountains are warming between 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average, causing glaciers to shrink, snowlines to recede, and increasing the danger of floods when expanding glacial lakes burst. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e39c7e80680e0ac7edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"></div> Sangmo remembers well that September day two years ago. “It had rained non-stop for two days, and suddenly we heard a big roar from up the mountain, my brother-in-law told us to run,” she recalls. There was unusually heavy rain where snow used to fall, and the fragile moraine ridges below Kanjiroba just dissolved, sending the debris flow racing down to the village below. A similar flood in June on the Melamchi River damaged Kathmandu’s water-supply project, Nepal’s most expensive infrastructure scheme. In Manang, a trans-Himalayan valley north of the Annapurnas, there was record-breaking rainfall that unleashed deadly floods. “There is more and more evidence that extreme rainfall events are caused by climate change, and these trigger sudden floods that destroy farms and settlements downstream,” says Arun Shrestha, a climate specialist with the River Basins and Cryosphere division at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). There has not been enough study to determine if the Dolpo flood was <a href="https://www.dhm.gov.np/uploads/climatic/467608975Observed%20Climate%20Trend%20Analysis%20Report_2017_Final.pdf">caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)</a>, or just extra-heavy rainfall on sediment deposits in high mountain valleys, but the result was just as devastating. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18da9c7e80680e0ac7eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The tongue of the glacier below Kanjiroba from which the floods came down.</div> A recent Himalayan <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">Glacial Lake Inventory</a> by <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/">ICIMOD </a>and UNDP mapped 3,624 new glacial lakes on Nepal’s main river basins and found that 47 of them could <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/">burst at any time</a>, with the risk of catastrophic flooding down valley. Of these, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">25 lakes are in Tibet,</a> but flow into tributaries of Nepal’s main rivers. While communities in Nepal have historically learnt to reduce risk from these floods by not settling along riverbanks, new poorly-designed roads, settlements and infrastructure are vulnerable to these climate induced disasters. While GLOFs can happen at some point in the future, weather extremes caused by the climate crisis have already unleashed a creeping disaster in Himalayan villages like Tso. This year, a 7-month <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-smoke-without-fire-2/">winter drought led to wildfires</a> and floods in Dolpo, displacing farmers, and forcing them to migrate. As <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Shey-Phoksundo-may-soon-become-a-bus-park,3975">Dolpo is connected by road</a>, most men have left rural areas for work in the cities or abroad to supplement their income, and it is the women who stay behind who bear the brunt of the impact of climate change -- the drudgery of having to walk farther for water, or suffer from failed harvests. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18dd9c7e80680e0ac7ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Massive flashfloods in 2012 and 2019 that came down from Mt Kanjiroba washed away fields and homes in Tso village.</div> “Climate change adds to the extra load of women in rural areas because of unpredictable rain, floods droughts and springs going dry,” says <a href=".%20https:/www.icimod.org/team/abid-hussain/">Abid Hussain</a>, of the Mountain Agriculture and Livelihood division of ICIMOD. Most of Nepal’s subsistence farmers are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, and <a href="https://www.thestatesman.com/world/women-participation-in-agriculture-is-highest-in-nepal-1502659946.html">83% of the country's women are fulltime farmers</a>. Namdak Sasngmo’s husband died 15 years ago, and her children are married. Without her fields, she finds it difficult to take care of her family. Nepal’s central or local governments should be helping her, but there has been no compensation for the loss and damage. Without her fields, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/trekking-to-save-nepals-snow-leopards/">no income from trekking tourism</a> due to the pandemic, and a decline in the yarsagumba crop, Sangmo is worried. Left to fend for themselves, she has fallen back on her faith in the Tibetan animist belief system that has deep reverence for the mountains as divine creations that have their serene and destructive sides that need to be appeased through prayer and good deeds. “We may have angered the gods of Kanjiroba with our deeds,” says Sangmo.“We made the river impure and many outsiders came and polluted the lake.” <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e09c7e80680e0ac7ecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Namdak Sangmo, 50, harvests buckwheat in a neighbour’s field because her farm was washed away by the flood.</div> To prevent future calamities, the monk at the local monastery, Khenpo Lama, performed a ritual to appeal to Mt Kanjiroba with a shebchu at a small stupa with offerings of buckwheat and barley. Sangmo believes it worked, because “everything has been quiet on the mountain after that”. From his monastery, Khenpo Nyima himself has noticed the change in weather, and the snow retreating higher and higher up Kanjiroba. Although he does not connect this to the global climate crisis, he is convinced outsiders are to blame. “We have seen the mountains changing, and that is because there are more and more outsiders coming here and they are desecrating nature,” he says, looking up at the icy tongue of a glacier below Kanjiroba, the top of which is veiled in monsoon clouds. He says the modern world has also changed the traditional ways in Dolpo. Local people no longer rely on dorima that determines the schedule for planting, harvesting, and the timings for taking yaks and goats up to high pasture. “They also do not put up prayer flags in the yulsa every year, and this has displeased the gods,” Khenpo Nyima adds. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e39c7e80680e0ac7edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"></div> However, the local government and the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/saving-shey-phoksundo-in-nepal,3596">Shey Phoksundo National Park</a> are not relying on prayers to protect citizens here. They built an embankment along the river after the 2012 flood to shield Tso’s village and farms, but it was washed away in the second flood in 2019. “We may need a bigger budget to build a proper wall that will save the village the next time there is a big flood, I am trying to convince the municipality authorities, but we need more help,” says Nima Lama, the ward chair. However, studies have shown that people in mountain regions across the world have been adapting to the changing climate without knowing why it is changing, and using local belief systems and traditions to do so. <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-06-mountain-dwellers-glaciers-climate.html">Anthropologist Ben Orlove of Columbia University’s Earth Institute</a> interviewed people in locales including the Peruvian Andes, and found that while villagers were aware of the changes, they were adapting to them without necessarily linking it to climate change. Orlove proposes framing the ‘climate change’ narrative as a need for ‘community change’ so the focus is on how villagers can benefit from the measures they take to adapt to lack of rain, water shortages, or flood-prevention embankments. That appears to be already happening here in Dolpo, an arid trans-Himalayan region of Nepal where people are falling back on a sense of community and traditional belief systems to cope with the impacts of the climate crisis. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e69c7e80680e0ac7eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Yarsagumba is a fungus that grows on a caterpillar, and is harvested in spring in the Himalaya. It is in high demand across the border in China.</div> The climate and ‘Himalayan viagra’ As the climate crisis impacts on the pastoral lifestyle of the people of Dolpo, the women who remain in the remote villages have started relying more and more on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-yarsa-picking-time/">yarsagumba, the caterpillar fungus</a> that is prized in Chinese medicine for its supposed aphrodisiac properties. These days, it is mainly women who climb up to the high slopes where the fungus pokes out of the ground after snow melts in spring. They harvest the yarsagumba and sell it to middlemen who in turn sell it to wholesalers at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/">Chinese border, 4 days walk to the north.</a> However, a combination of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/heavy-snowfall-over-nepal-himalaya/">unseasonal snowfall</a>, long periods of drought and warmer weather is affecting the yarsagumba, too. Schools in Dolpo close at yarsa harvest time so students can accompany parents to the pick the fungus, but this year they have returned empty-handed. “We went up in April, but the yarsa was not fully mature and it was soggy, there was nothing to pick,” says one student, Sangmo Lama. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e99c7e80680e0ac7efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">With her trekking income gone, and farm washed away by floods, Namdak Sangmo used to depend on yarsagumba picking. But even the growth of the fungus has been affected by weather extremes caused by climate change.</div> While over-harvesting in the past has been one of the reasons for the decline in the yarsa crop, it should have revived in the past two years when the pandemic reduced the numbers of pickers. That lends support to the theory that a warmer Himalaya is also affecting growth of the valuable fungus and contributes to the end of the yarsa <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/yarsagumba-dispute-dolpa,1424">gold rush</a>. Local people who relied on tourism and livestock for income had <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18321#.XnOPvS2B3-Y">earnings from the fungus</a> as a fall back. Now, that option is also gone. Yarsa made up more than half of the annual income of an average Dolpo household. While the fungus is sold for only Rs5,000 per kg to the Chinese traders at the border, it can fetch as much as $75,000 per kg in Shanghai. After she lost her fields to the glacial floods, Namdak Sangmo of Tso village used to rely solely on yarsa income. She used to collect at least 100 pieces of fungus in the past, two years ago she found only six pieces, and this spring none at all. “Without yarsa what do we eat? How do we survive? The mountain was angry and took away my fields, there is nothing to do but pray,” says Sangmo, as she sharpens her sickle to help the other women in their buckwheat fields. This report was supported by the Road to COP26 campaign implemented by the British Council and funded by UKAID.

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Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111124/636cd20e9c7e80680e08f8edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"/><figcaption>The fire in Manang started on 26 November and is still raging as seen in these pictures taken on Tuesday. Photos: NABIN LAMICHHANE/RSS</figcaption></figure>A three month drought in central and eastern Nepal has sparked <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sees-drop-in-wildfires-during-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires</a> across the Himalaya which has shrouded the mountains in smoke, adding to the urban and crossborder pollution.The big forest fires <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">in Pathibhara in eastern Nepal</a> and below Mt Machapuchre in Kaski raged for a week, and spent themselves. But major fires are out of control in Manang, Rasuwa, Lamjung and Sindhupalchok, destroying huge tracts of high montane forest.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111124/636cd2119c7e80680e08f8eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="720"><figcaption>An entire forest in Gatlang of Rasuwa was reduced to ashes in a wildfire on Monday-Tuesday. The fire only extinguished itself after there was no more forest left to burn. Photo: BIBI FUNYAL</figcaption></figure>The most serious and widespread are the fires in Manang Valley around Chame. The vegetation on the slopes and undergrowth in the forests are tinder dry, and the authorities say they have caught fire accidentally because of people grazing livestock, or gathering firewood.The fire in Manang started as far back as 26 November, and has since spread into the Marsyangdi and Dudh Khola valleys.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111124/636cd2139c7e80680e08f8efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Under-equipped Nepal Police and Army officials have been largely unsuccessful in controlling the fire, which is whipped up by high winds.</figcaption></figure>Efforts by local volunteers, Nepal Police, Nepal Army and Nepal Armed Police have been largely unsuccessful in controlling the fire whipped up by high winds because of lack of equipment, and because the blaze is fanned by strong up-valley afternoon winds.Forest fire in Manang has been raging for over a month, after an unusually dry and warm winter.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111124/636cd2169c7e80680e08f8f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Part of the rapidly spreading forest wildfire near Chame on Tuesday. In the past months it has destroyed over 700 hectares of forests rich in endangered wildlife and Hiamalayan plant species.</figcaption></figure>The fire has destroyed over 700 hectares of forest rich in endangered wildlife and Himalayan plant species.The effect of the fires is visible even in satellite images. This NASA image (pictured below) taken at noon on 12 January shows <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-air-pollution-hits-record-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">smoke shrouding</a> the river valleys of the Marsyangdi, Budi Gandaki, Bhote Kosi, Sun Kosi and the Arun.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111124/636cd2199c7e80680e08f8f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="824"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The above image is a composite based on <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=73.05432164103755,20.9895954810804,96.86111430117901,34.3528423044617&amp;l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedRe" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v%3D73.05432164103755,20.9895954810804,96.86111430117901,34.3528423044617%26l%3DReference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedRe&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1610539171776000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyjBHjdeFLoVx52Le4KkM9CE8xXw">NASA Worldwide</a> image and the <a href="https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2021-01-11..2021-01-12;l:noaa20-viirs,countries,protected_areas,protected_areas_regional;@132.8,15.7,3z" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/%23d:2021-01-11..2021-01-12;l:noaa20-viirs,countries,protected_areas,protected_areas_regional;@132.8,15.7,3z&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1610539171776000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGx9Lq-WrX2bhCV-0g0j3oTHn-5mw">Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) both from 12 January.</a>The smoke is also blowing into Kathmandu Valley and it combined with the city’s own pollution and cross border smog on Tuesday afternoon to send <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Air Quality Index soaring</a> to above 200 in the ‘Very Unhealthy’ zone.The satellite images also show ground fog covering the Tarai and Chitwan on Tuesday morning.

Wildfires ravage Nepal mountains

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