In December, forecasters predicted that Nepal would receive more rain than the three decade average rainfall this winter. We are halfway through winter, and many parts of the country have not received a single drop of rain for four months. Terrace fields in the mountains are dry, and in the plains winter wheat is drying up. Many Himalayan mountains are naked and snowless.&nbsp; “Mukut Himal and many mountains are just bare rock when they should be white with new snow this time of year,” says Madan Sigdel of Tribhuvan University who returned from Upper Dolpo district last week. Nepal receives an average of 60mm of rain during the three coldest months. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has recorded just 1.9mm of rain so far this winter. So far, at least, the forecasters have been dead wrong. The 2023-24 winter is turning out to be driest in recent years.&nbsp; Bibhuti Pokharel of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says that it is too early to declare his office’s weather models wrong. He adds, “Ours was a long-term forecast, it may not have rained yet, but it might rain more than the average during the remaining one-and-a-half months of winter.”&nbsp; Indeed, extreme weather events induced by the climate crisis may not see a change in seasonal precipitation totals, but the rain or snow may fall all at once with destructive force.&nbsp; Winter weather systems in Nepal are dominated by westerly fronts riding the jetstream that travel all the way from the Mediterranean, passing through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, in recent years, the moisture is mostly spent by the time the westerlies reach Nepal.&nbsp; “Studies have shown that the increase in sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean has made the whole region warmer and drier,” explains Binod Pokharel, another hydrology and meteorology professor at Tribhuvan University. “This has meant that the winter wind from the west carries less moisture.” Climate is also greatly influenced by the El Niño and La Niña systems that develop in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when there are above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean while cooling of the ocean there triggers the La Niña. The two events occur every two to seven years, on average.&nbsp; During the La Niña phenomenon, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific change wind patterns, disrupting the westerlies and leading to less rainfall. Last winter the La Niña system was active when there was no rainfall in Nepal.&nbsp; However, the El Niño system replaced La Niña during the first half of 2023, and the Department of Meteorology has estimated that the El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean will persist right through this winter. Nepal has previously had more rain than average when the El Niño system was active. An active El Niño system means there will be more than average rainfall, confirms Sudarshan Humagain of the Meteorology Department. “However, it must be noted that in some years, there has been less than average rain when El Niño is active,” he adds.&nbsp; What this means is that with climate change, weather patterns have become so unpredictable that most long-term forecasts tend to be inaccurate. &nbsp; Indeed, even with an active El Niño, winter rain-bearing westerlies have not been as active as before in Nepal. Periods without rainfall are classified as drought when the total rainfall is less than 75% of the annual average. The trend so far indicates that Nepal is heading for another winter drought, with a significant part of the country not having had rainfall since October.&nbsp; Last year's winter was similarly dry with just 12.9mm of rain, the lowest precipitation recorded in the last 15 years.&nbsp; Data shows that 12 out of the last 18 winters had less than average rainfall, and eight out of those 12 winters had droughts. The trend is that winter rainfall is pushed towards the end of the season, and then it falls all at once.&nbsp; About 80% of the annual rainfall in Nepal occurs during the monsoon months from June to September, and winter generally sees only up to 4% of average yearly rain. “This means that two or three instances of heavy rain are normal for winter months,” says Humagain of the Meteorology Department.&nbsp; The 2023 Synthesis Report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that Asia would experience the effects of extreme rainfall variability and drought in the short term as well as long term. The report also noted that winter temperatures are going up across South Asia and 2023 was the hottest year on record.&nbsp; “It is certain that winter rainfall is declining while winter temperatures are increasing,” explains Professor Pokharel at Tribhuvan University. “Globally, there has been a trend towards more intense rainfall in the monsoon and falling winter precipitation, and this trend could be the norm in coming years.&nbsp; The lack of winter rain and the fact that it is still too early for the winter thaw means that Nepal’s rivers are all running low. This means the country’s total hydropower generation capacity has dropped by 20%, and the shortfall has to be met by power imports from India. At present, Nepal consumes 1,305MW of electricity on average per day, and nearly one-fourth of it is being imported from India this winter. The figure is higher for morning and evening peak hours. “Power generation has declined drastically, and is expected to go down further as chances of rainfall look slim,” says Prakash Chandra Dulal of the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN) “The output of private sector projects usually drops by to 25-28% in winter.” The reason is that all private power plants are run of the river type and not reservoirs that would store monsoon rainfall. Nepal has only one reservoir project, Kulekhani which was built in 1984. The second one is finally under construction on the Seti River in Tanahu.&nbsp; Generating more electricity in winter is more profitable to hydropower producers because the state-run utility Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) &nbsp;buys the power for almost twice the price per unit in winter compared to the monsoon standard rate.&nbsp; “The lack of rainfall and decreased river flow costs us around Rs4 million per megawatt,” says Sura Prasad Adhikari of Barahi Hydro Limited.&nbsp; Even with imports from India, Nepal’s industries are suffering from power cuts.&nbsp; Farmers across Nepal also rely on winter rain more than they do on irrigation systems. Ravi Kiran Adhikari of the Department of Agriculture says that the production of wheat, barley, mustard, lentils, citrus and vegetables is significantly reduced because of winter drought. “There is still time for the crops to revive if it rains during the remaining months of the winter,” says Adhikari, “But if there is no rain, then our crop output will be seriously affected.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1744" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Winter drought NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of wildfires burning in Nepal in the past week. Each dot represents a major fire detected by infrared sensors on the satellite. The picture also shows dense fog blanketing the Indian plains and the Tarai.</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, lack of rain in winter increases the chance of wildfire as happened in the winter of 2021-22 when the Air Quality Index in Kathmandu soared to record-breaking 700.&nbsp; As it is, air pollution in Nepal gets worse during winter months in the Tarai and Kathmandu because of temperature inversion and industrial pollutants from north India.&nbsp; This year’s winter drought is already sparking wildfires, with 48 major fires detected by the NASA FIRMS satellite in the past week.

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Nepal suffers another winter drought

Four people from Arghakhanchi and one from Dailekh died this week from injuries sustained while trying to put out wildfires fanned by high winds near their communities. Ten more people were injured in a forest blaze in Dailekh’s Aathbis Municipality. <a href="https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov">NASA satellite</a> data shows that there were wildfires in 1,196 locations in the last five months, out of which 808 of the fires were under the Division Forest Office, while 388 were in national parks. Of the 808 fires within the purview of the district forest office, most occurred within the Lamjung Division Forest Office.&nbsp; Meanwhile, forests in the Chitwan National Park and the buffer zone have recorded 100 fires: the most out of any protected area. Bagmati Province, with 278 fires, had the highest number of wildfires. More than 80% of wildfires in Nepal occur during the dry season between February to May, reaching its peak in mid-April. According to the Department of Forestry and Land Conservation, wildfires burn 200,000 hectares of forest area in Nepal each year, causing an estimated loss of more than Rs2 billion annually.&nbsp; According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), 769 people have died and 2,568 have been injured in 18,791 wildfires in Nepal from 2013 to 2023, and the financial loss has been worth more than Rs22 billion.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023051305058_f33b72d5e950a541269b97c934872ec83c8017f4aebd0bcf8ca0749d45a6edf9.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2023051305058_f33b72d5e950a541269b97c934872ec83c8017f4aebd0bcf8ca0749d45a6edf9" data-rendition-name="original" width="1707" height="721" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire map"> <figcaption>Infrared hotspots detected by the NASA FIRMS Satellite over Nepal on 12 May at noon. Map: NASA FIRMS</figcaption> </figure>  One reason there are more fires is because there are just more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/while-the-forests-are-burning">forests</a>. Nepal's forest cover doubled in the past 30 years, and since they are strictly protected there is a lot of dry flammable material in the undergrowth. Anil Pokharel, executive head of NDRRMA, says that wildfires have increased tenfold in the last decade and that there have been five times as many wildfires this year than there were last year mainly because of a prolonged winter drought. “We did not expect that there would be such a large number of forest fires this year,” adds Pokharel. “It has been horrific.” Deputy secretary and wildfire expert Sundar Sharma says that inadequate record-keeping measures mean the actual numbers of wildfires are higher than official figures. The lack of detailed study of wildfires has also meant that there has been no preparation and preparedness plan, and by the time work starts, it is too late. Rameshowr Marhatta, joint secretary at the NDRRMA, says that even as fires rage across the country, the authorities have not been able to do much more than provide first response. “Right now, we have just been delivering fire fighting equipment from district to district, and as such we have not been able to properly study the wildfires,” he adds. “This is because we lack manpower, and Sundar Sharma is the only wildfire expert we currently have on the team.”&nbsp; According to the report, Amplified Drought Trend in Nepal Increases the Potential for Himalayan Wild Fire by Binod Pokharel, associate professor at Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Water and Meteorology, wildfires in Nepal will increase by 12% by 2030, 30% by 2050, and 50% by the end of this century as the climate crisis intensifies along the Himalaya.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Nepal is going up in smoke</a>, Kunda Dixit  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230513040524_605dd833321532552ebb333b3c72b36d89c61875c272e0af23152ce7a3c68e6e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230513040524_605dd833321532552ebb333b3c72b36d89c61875c272e0af23152ce7a3c68e6e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire NT"> <figcaption>Wildfire seen spreading through Nuwakot's Bidur municipality.</figcaption> </figure>  It’s getting hot out here&nbsp; Most of the wildfires are human induced. Early summer is the peak season when herders and farmers set fire to crop residue or pastures to make greenshoots grow when the rains come. But with long winter droughts, the slopes are tinder dry and the fires spread out of control when they are fanned by up-valley winds. Strict rules to protect national parks and community forests also means there is a lot of dry biomass in the jungle floor, which makes it easy for forest to spread -- especially where highways pass through nature reserves like Bardia, Chitwan, or Parsa. “In the past, forest fires used to be naturally occurring, but at present, they happen increasingly due to human factors, either unintentional or deliberate,” says forester Bhola Bhattarai, “People have been known to set fire to the forests to hide evidence of theft of flora and fauna, smuggling, and even to plant new plants.” Research conducted by Monash University in Australia found that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/protecting-nepals-forests-from-fires">climate change directly contributes to increasing wildfires</a> globally. An article published in the New England Journal of Medicine noted that climate change helps fuel oxygen and fire sources. Climate change has also brought about changes in rainfall patterns, leading to more frequent and prolonged droughts across the world. A 2021 report published in German Watch had Nepal as the ninth most vulnerable country in the world to the effects of climate change. But lifestyle changes have contributed just as significantly to increasing wildfires, says Nurendra Aryal, chief conservation officer of the Api-Nampa Conservation Area. Mass migration from villages to cities and outside Nepal has meant that forest management has fallen behind, undermining traditional practices that helped in preventing forest fires. Indeed, across Nepal’s villages, the practice of collecting and managing dry leaves, twigs and branches, and firewood that litter the forest floors and barren farmlands which catch fire quickly during the dry season have been all but abandoned. Managing dry leaves and twigs has become a major challenge. Cattle-rearing has stopped, and consequently, the number of people dependent on the forest for their livelihood has decreased.&nbsp; “Our traditional practice of collecting forest and farm debris and utilising them must be encouraged,” says Aryal. “The leaves, for instance, can be collected and turned into charcoal and then sold.” An apathetic government Nepal’s Ministry of Forests introduced the Forest Fire Management Strategy in 2010, but the implementation has been lax. A budget of Rs13 billion has been assigned to the Ministry of Forests this fiscal year. Of this, only Rs22 million has been set aside for wildfire management. Meanwhile, Rs1.6 billion has been allocated for the NDRRMA, out of which Rs5 million has already been spent on wildfire control so far. The government sends about Rs500,000 annually to each forest office for wildfire control. A part of it is used to purchase firefighting equipment including fireproof jackets, helmets, gloves, backpacks and the like, while some of it goes towards conducting awareness programmes.&nbsp; “Aside from budget gaps, Nepal’s forest offices lack up-to-date resources as well as qualified personnel to fight wildfires,” says wildfire expert Sundar Sharma. “We cannot partake in effective and result-oriented work as long as we do not have an integrated management system and a responsible institution.” Nepal Police, Nepal Army and the Armed Police Force have been coordinating with forest research and training centres under the Ministry of Forest to control wildfires. But the efforts will be successful only if there is sufficient budget, necessary equipment and skilled human resource, says Rajendra Khadka of the Armed Police Force. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/high-and-dry">High and dry</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230513040524_1945e7fd8846d48d59d088dbc7c65eef30b708f27e26cc696e06691948a0eb4b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20230513040524_1945e7fd8846d48d59d088dbc7c65eef30b708f27e26cc696e06691948a0eb4b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire NT"> </figure>  Meanwhile, the government has been trying to control fires with water bombing helicopters, which is not very effective. “Rather than have manpower and up-to-date equipment, the government has been conducting unnecessary stunts by using helicopters to fight wildfires, which is expensive, cumbersome, and impossible to send to every single affected area,” says Lokraj Nepal of the Chitwan Forest Division. Those who set forest fires are punishable under The Forests Act, 2019 and can be imprisoned for three years, pay a fine of Rs60,000, or both. However, authorities have no information about how many offenders have been prosecuted so far. the culprits in the deadly Arghakhanchi fires this week have not yet been identified. In 2020 the government rendered its Scientific Forest Management Guideline, 2014 null and void, effectively banning the collection, transportation and felling of wood. Consumers now have no incentive to protect the forests and this has led to an indifference towards wildfire control and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">increased forest fires</a>, say experts. However, Sadhu Ram Chaulagain, president of the Hetaunda chapter of the Federation of Community Forestry Users Nepal, refutes such claims. He says: “The truth is that the drought during last year’s winter and the increasing wildfires have stretched out local manpower thin. Otherwise, our community has a deep connection to the forest.” Pravin Bidari, chief of the Forest Division Office, Bardia says that more than half of the 281 community forest users in his division have been actively fighting wildfires, a sentiment which is echoed by Bharti Pathak, president of the Federation of Community Forestry Users Nepal. “It’s not like anyone can sleep in peace while fires rage around their house. But one is not able to do much without technology or adequate manpower,” she says, adding that if the government were to provide advanced equipment to more than 22,000 community forests across the country to facilitate wildfire control, locals would not have to show up at the scene dressed inadequately— armed simply with buckets and sticks. "Local and provincial governments have shown no desire to coordinate with us," Pathak continues. “After the fire is over, they will send someone over to hold a wildfire-related awareness program, and consider their job done.” Nepal lacks a clear policy on wildfire control, and as such, there has long been confusion over authority and jurisdiction in all three tiers of the government. Home Ministry spokesperson Jitendra Basnet argues that the NDRRMA carries more responsibility over fire control than the ministries. Meanwhile, Devesh Mani Tripathi of the Department of Forests and Soil Conservation, which is under the Ministry of Forests and Environment, says that since the provincial government has the authority to manage national forests, wildfire control should also fall under its purview. "A large amount of money has been sent to the provinces for fire control, so it is them who have a major role to play,” says Tripathi. Bagmati province has had a forest department since 2018, while the Madhes province has recently begun smart patrolling in forests. But much as the provinces have made efforts, Tripathi says, a lack of budget and an abundance of legal hurdles have caused problems. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/central-nepal-engulfed-in-smoke">Central Nepal engulfed in smoke</a>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230513040528_61c9236284ca305eb1e7043fa14dd810ded58699cfe4075c5e89e535513db89a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20230513040528_61c9236284ca305eb1e7043fa14dd810ded58699cfe4075c5e89e535513db89a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1800" height="1350" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire NT 4"> <figcaption>Police work to put out a forest fire in Tanahu's Bandipur Rural Municipality. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  But the real issue lies with the fact that the government is yet o take wildfire control seriously, says Sundar Sharma: “So far, we haven’t had an accountable authority to oversee wildfire control. Our forests will continue to burn and Nepalis will continue to suffer as long as we do have an institutional body to address the disaster.” <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains">Increasing wildfires </a>also threaten Nepal’s diverse ecosystems, putting biodiversity at risk. Alternatively, when fires raze the habitats of animals, it has led to an increase in human-animal conflicts. &nbsp;But while western Tarai is most impacted by wildfires, Nepal’s low-risk Himalayan region has not been spared. Much of yarsagumba, cypress trees, birch trees and other vegetation have been lost to increasing fires in the Himalaya where it takes up to 15 years for a plant to grow by one meter.&nbsp; “There is such diversity of species in the Himalaya even within relatively small areas that it is impossible to undo the damage caused by wildfires,” says Narayan Ghimire, an associate professor at the Department of Botany at Tribhuvan University. “We risk losing it all if something is not done.” In the Manaslu Conservation Area, 200 hectares of land have been subject to wildfires caused by yarsagumba hunters and cattle herders who believe that setting fire to the land will cause the grass to grow. Manaslu Conservation Area chief Pashupati Adhikari notes that situations like this are the result of an inactive nature conservation fund. Annapurna Conservation Area has also seen an increase in wildfire this year, affecting the habitats of musk deer, snow leopards, and the Himalayan bluesheep. “Large animals may be able to escape wildfires, but animals with young babies and birds that have just laid eggs will not abandon their offspring and will perish, as will small reptiles, insects, and ants,” explains ACAP head Lokendra Adhikari. In the Tarai, construction of fire lines, early warning systems, and fire control patrol dispatched to 67 locations within the protected area have helped greatly in controlling wildfires, says Chitwan National Park chief Jil Bahadur Pun. Says Pun: “Having fire lines has meant that the wildfires do not spread from one location to another, which is why there has not been a big threat to the biodiversity in Chitwan National Park so far.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet">Wildfires in Nepal cause air quality to plummet</a>

More pre-monsoon forest fires in Nepal

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111120/637216af9c7e80680e0ba9a7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A fire engulfed major parts of Nagarkot's Datadol forest in April 2021. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>March 2022 was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal/">one of the hottest recorded in the Subcontinent</a>. April also saw sweltering conditions in Nepal’s Tarai plains.This is the season for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forest fires</a>, and the hot and dry conditions once again fanned the flames across Nepal. Here in Dhanusha district, forest fires have spread to forests that local communities have painstakingly protected.  Wildfires do not just destroy nature, but also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reduce air quality</a> which is already poor due to emissions from vehicles and industries.Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> impact of the climate crisis</a>, and besides adapting to its impact it should also be doing its part to reduce emissions and increase forest cover.That is however not the case. In fact, all three levels of the government have failed to show any genuine commitment to fulfil <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/4-months-after-glasgow-nepals-goals-look-iffy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pledges Nepal made at COP26 in Glasgow</a> last year to attain net zero carbon by 2045 and to have 45% of its area under forest cover. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111120/637216b29c7e80680e0ba9a8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> Locals trying to put out a wildfire making way through the forests near Phoksundo Lake in April 2021. Photo: BIJAYABAR PRADHAN</figcaption></figure>In fact, the opposite is happening. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-climate-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Fossil fuel consumption</a> is going up exponentially, and illegal logging has also similarly increased. The remaining forests are being decimated by these annual wildfires, which are becoming more extensive because of prolonged drought caused by climate change.Nepal’s<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> community forestry program</a> is internationally acclaimed, and it has helped double the country’s tree cover in less than 25 years. But under the new federal structure, community forests have been caught in a grey zone because of confusion over jurisdiction. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tussle</a> between local communities, and the district forest offices have added to deforestation. Illegal logging has also similarly increased, all of which threaten to undermine past gains.  Rangers earlier used to patrol the forest to trim or remove undergrowth to prevent fires, and local communities were encouraged to protect woodlands and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/while-the-forests-are-burning/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">help extinguish fires</a>.  <figure><img width="1500" height="692" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111120/637216b69c7e80680e0ba9a9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A hardwood forest in Rautahat district on fire in March 2021, one of many big flare-ups that smothered Central Nepal in smoke. Photo: MUKESH POKHREL</figcaption></figure>After the federal transition, these practices have gone into decline and the undergrowth is full of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-smoke-without-fire-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inflammable dry leaves and twigs</a>  In some areas, there is no incentive to protect the forests anymore. However, some forest-dependent communities have taken up the responsibility and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-unsung-heroes-of-conservation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">stepped up to conserve trees</a> since the Division Forest Office has not. A successful example of this positive trend is the Bhati Ghari community forest here in Mithila Municipality.  The community has acted fast to stop fires in their forests from spreading before they caused major damage. With support from मैकगघ foundation, <a href="https://www.pipaltreefoundation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Pipal Tree Organisation</a>, and our own <a href="https://mwt.org.np" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mithila Wildlife Trust</a>,  local volunteers have planted 56,000 saplings of 36 types in degraded land. Their effort even won them the Ganeshman Singh Community Forest National Prize, the first community forest in the Tarai belt to be given such an award. Elsewhere in Dhanusa district, the Mithila Wildlife Trust has become the first to successfully implement the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Miyawaki Method</a> of intensive afforestation in Nepal. This new plantation technique can quickly turn wastelands into lush forests while reviving indigenous plant species.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111120/637216b99c7e80680e0ba9aajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Warm and dry winter has sparked forest fires across the Himalaya that raged for months from late 2020 to early 2021. Photo: NABIN LAMICHHANE/RSS</figcaption></figure>Most <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires</a> are caused by careless disposal of cigarette butts, funerals inside forests and locals not extinguishing flames after picnics. Livestock owners also deliberately set the undergrowth on fire believing that it will bring up fresh new shoots of grass when the rains come. Farmers also have a role in increasing wildfires as they <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">set fire to residual straw after harvest</a>, not realising that it can be composted to make bio-fertiliser. Some forest fires are set by poachers to clear the vegetation and catch wildlife for smuggling.The global climate crisis is also disrupting the water cycle. This has directly impacted rainfall patterns, leading to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather events</a>. The 1993 Forestry Act allows villagers to protect, manage and utilise their forests. It gave them a sense of ownership, and an <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/community-forest-comes-in-handy-earthquake-reconstruction,2927" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">incentive to protect and conserve</a>. It is this community spirit that can also control the fires that are threatening past gains. However, the federal and provincial governments must also do their bit in controlling wildfires. They must allow local decision-making, and equip rural municipalities and wards with resources to continue protecting their forests. Dev Narayan Mandal is the founding chair of the Mithila Wildlife Trust.

Protecting Nepal's forests from fires

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18a39c7e80680e0ac7d8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="464"/>Nepal’s trans-Himalayan district of Manang is located in the rain-shadow, and is a high altitude desert. Its average annual rainfall is barely 300mm, but it got nearly double that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rain in just one week</a> in June.The region had seen a seven-month winter drought, and was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ravaged by wildfires this spring</a> that burnt for three months. Then came the monsoon: dumping 300% more rain than the average for June-July.The steep slopes scorched by wildfire could not absorb the heavy rain, and a wall of water, mud, boulders and logs washed down the Marsyangdi River, washing away highway, bridges, settlements and other infrastructure.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18a59c7e80680e0ac7d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="639">Three and half months later, the scars of that devastation are still seen everywhere in the towns of Chame and Taal. Residents are still waiting for help from the government, while charities and activists have provided relief material.Scientists are reluctant to blame a single weather event on the climate crisis, but there is a growing consensus that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a hotter Himalaya </a>is leading to more erratic monsoons, droughts, floods and wildfires. The 2021 monsoon was proof of that.Minrasi Gurung and his family in Naso village of Manang used to have his hands full all year round growing vegetables in a large patch by the river. Income from selling potatoes, chilli and tomatoes to trekking lodges supported the entire household.But the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood on the Marsyangdi River</a> on 15 June swept away the family’s farm, and the river is now flowing through a boulder-strewn debris field where the farm used to be.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18aa9c7e80680e0ac7dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1368" height="912"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18ad9c7e80680e0ac7dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b19c7e80680e0ac7dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">“We have been tilling this land since the time of my great grandfather, never before has there been such a disaster,” he says.Minrasi has now moved with his wife Masini to Myagdi River on the border of Lamjung and Manang districts to open a tea shop. “The floods and landslides displaced us,” they say.The scenic town of Taal used to be a popular stopover for trekkers on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-other-abc-trek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Annapurna Circuit</a>, and there were many lodges on a ledge overlooking the Marsyangdi. The water rose so high on 15 June that it washed away the lodges, and seven of the 57 houses in the village are still liveable. None of the hotels survived however, one would be hard-pressed to even locate their ruins.Keshav Gurung of Taal spent much of his life in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-all-the-guides-gone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tourism business</a>, and he ploughed his earnings to upgrade his hotel, never thinking of investing elsewhere because trekking brought good income.But the flood swept away his Rs40 million hotel, and he is now living in a tent in a plot owned by his neighbours. He used to make Rs1.6 million a year in profit from the 21-room hotel.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b59c7e80680e0ac7ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Golamaya Gurung in Sirantal had a 10-room hotel, a house and half a hectare of land. All of this is now gone, she barely managed to save her own life as the floodwaters rose.A helicopter rescued Golmaya and her neighbours two days after the disaster from a cave they had fled to. Since then, she has not been able to return to what used to be her home.“There is no way I can get there at the moment. From a distance, I can see the river flowing where my house once stood, I can identify the general location of my house because of a tree that is still standing,” says Golmaya.The floods on the Marsyangdi River and its tributary, Thada Khola, caused the most damage in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Off-the-road,237" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Taal</a> and Dharapani municipalities. The district headquarter at Chame is still cut off because the road was washed away by the flood and numerous landslides.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b89c7e80680e0ac7dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Kamarkali Gurung owned Hotel Heaven in Dharapani, popular with trekkers. There is no sign of it now. She put in all her savings and spent Rs20.5 million on the hotel, and had been running it for eight years.“I invested everything in that hotel, what happened is so unexpected, so shocking, I still cannot believe that I have lost it all,” she says.Bhuturam Gurung of Chame had also been running a hotel for 15 years, but both his house and hotel were washed away by the Marsyangdi that fateful day. “I had never seen an angry river like that in my life,” he recalled. Bhuturam’s families and three others are now living in Manang’s district prison, which has been converted into a shelter.There is no exact estimate of the damage wrought by the 15 June flood yet. But according to Chief District Officer Bishnu Prasad Lamichhane, the disaster cost at least Rs1.1 billion. A municipality investigation showed a much higher number.“The government observation doesn’t match the ground situation, we estimate over Rs4 billion in damage,” says Palden Chopang Gurung, MP from Manang district. “Chame and Naso alone suffered over Rs3 billion in damaged private buildings, schools, electricity lines and roads. But that is just two municipalities, more bridges and roads have been affected.”A recently completed track from Manang to Bhartang is badly damaged with a 2km-long stretch washed away by the floods. While a new route is under construction, the terrain poses a challenge and the progress has been slow. The landslide-damaged road between Dharapani and Chame also poses risks for travellers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18bc9c7e80680e0ac7dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="664"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18bf9c7e80680e0ac7e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="664">“It’s impossible to resume smooth transport like anytime soon, we have settled for a temporary road for now,” says Chairman of Chame Village Municipality Lokendra Ghale.Following the floods, the chief minister of Gandaki Province Krishna Chandra Pokhrel has visited the disaster site three times in a helicopter, he also announced Rs200,000 in relief for each family. But three and a half months later, locals are yet to receive any help.Earlier this year,<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-govt-fills-cabinet-after-3-months/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s government</a> declared Manang as a high-risk district, following which Home Minister Bal Krisha Khand and Energy Minister Pampha Bhusal also choppered in to make more promises that have not been kept.“We haven’t received any help from the central government, the only relief has been from Manang people living in Kathmandu or abroad,” adds Ghale. “All these experts in Kathmandu who have linked the disaster to climate change are also all talk and no action.”Located in the Himalayan rainshadow, Manang gets only about 300mm of rain a year. But on 15 June, it got 212mm of rain in just 24 hours. The average rainfall for March-June in Manang is about 40 mm, but this year it got 135 mm in that period.“The soil in high mountains can be easily washed away by the rain as they are not as firm,” says geography professor Subodh Dhakal at Tribhuvan University. To make matters worse, Manang saw fires burn continuously for three months last winter. Monsoon cloudbursts then hit slopes where the soil’s absorptive capacity had been reduced by previous wildfires. The runoff disgorged itself into the Marsyangdi River.“Due to the rise in average global temperature, there is more moisture in the monsoon system, and these have managed to find their way to the other side of the mountains, this is a clear link to global warming,” says climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal.The average increase in temperature in Manang is also higher than other districts at lower elevations, and is 0.09 Celsius higher than elsewhere, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.This is in line with the finding that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya is getting 0.3-0.7 Celsius warmer </a>than the global average, and is a warning for a much hotter Subcontinent and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more frequent disasters</a> in the coming days.

Himalayan floods a sign of worse to come

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6b9c7e80680e0a0b8ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="1332"/><figcaption>Paddy and maize fields in Kavre. A heavier than usual monsoon this year brought destructive floods, but was a boon to farmers. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfire</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood disasters</a> this year were not bad enough, scientists have warned that unless the world reduces emissions of greenhouse gases drastically, these disasters will get much worse.Hundreds of scientists spent the past two years drafting a 4,000 page <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">report for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),</a> but even as they did so, news of climate calamities were coming in thick and fast: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a>, continental-scale wildfires, flash-floods, biodiversity loss.A summary of the report for world governments was released on Monday, three months before world leaders meet in Glasgow in November for a Climate Summit called COP26 (Conference of Parties 26).The highly technical Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC on the science behind climate change has forecasts that will directly affect Nepal and the Himalaya. It also has pointers on what must be done urgently to reduce its impact.The IPCC report contains the most direct correlation scientists have drawn between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change and extreme weather</a> around the world.‘The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events … and droughts have increased since the 1950s,’ the report states with ‘high confidence’, adding that human-induced climate change is likely the main driver.It adds categorically: ‘Increases in monsoon precipitation since the 1980s have resulted from rising GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations … Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in the mid- to long term on a global scale, particularly over South and Southeast Asia.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6e9c7e80680e0a0b8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1988" height="1024"><figcaption>Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>It predicts that these heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions as the world continues to warm. Globally, there will be 7% more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather</a> for every 1° Celsius of global warming.Even under the best-case scenario of reduced greenhouse gas emission, global average temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Himalaya</a> will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C.The main conclusions of this IPCC report were leaked to AFP in June, and predicts global surface temperatures increasing until at least the mid-century even under the best scenario. The warming will ‘exceed 2°C during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades’.The 2015 Paris Agreement recommended capping global warming at ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels, and to 1.5°C in the next 30 years by reducing emissions. However, the increase is already at 1.2°C Celsius, and on track to exceed 2°C.This will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass species extinction as ecosystems collapse</a>, more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">widespread diseases</a>, heatwaves making parts of the world unfit for human habitation, cities and small island nations at risk of being submerged by sea level rise.For Nepal, even a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will mean <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heavy precipitation and associated flooding</a> of the kind the country saw in 2018 and this year. At 2°C increase, the floods, heat waves and droughts  will be even deadlier.The other impact on Nepal will be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan meltdown</a>, as the mountains thaw with rising temperatures.‘Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s,’ the report states. ‘…The global nature of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacier retreat</a>, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s, is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc719c7e80680e0a0b8cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="546"><figcaption>Future annual emissions of CO₂ under the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>This is even truer for the Himalaya because of its proximity to the equator. Scientists say it is already warming up to 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. But at the current trajectory, the mountains may see warming of up to 5.7°C during this century. In such a scenario, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya will lose two-thirds of permanent ice</a>, and most glaciers will have melted.It predicts that even if greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting</a> for decades or centuries. This will impact not just Nepal but about 1 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya in China, India, Bangladesh and southeast Asia.‘Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale, fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents, and compound flooding in some locations,’ the says the IPCC report, almost describing the winter drought, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires and floods that have ravaged Nepal</a> in the past 8 months.The main cause of all this warming is that in 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years. Global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 will be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels even if emissions are controlled in the next 30 years.The IPCC report summary says that the only solution is for world governments to immediately agree on reaching net zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions to stabilise human-induced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global temperature increase</a>.If the biggest carbon emitters like India and China meet cut back targets, under the most optimistic scenario global average temperature would stabilise at below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century after overheating by 0.1°C. But experts do not sound very optimistic about this happening.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc749c7e80680e0a0b8djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="986"><figcaption>Projected global temperature rise under the intermediate, high and very high GHG emission scenarios considered. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s greenhouse gas emission</a> is negligible, but it has doubled in the past seven years according to a mandatory report filed by the Ministry of Environment with the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Most of this is because the volume of petroleum imports from India has doubled in the past 10 years to meet the demand of transportation, expansion of cement and other industries.Last year, Nepal had submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to meet <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">zero emission by 2050</a>. Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Rs21 billion a year. This will also clean up the air, dirty air killed 41,000 people in Nepal in 2019.It is a sign of just how desperate the situation is that the IPCC scientists say in their report that the only hope for life on the planet may be a major volcanic eruption this century that would reduce global surface temperature because the sun will be blocked out for 2-3 years.The reports says rather phlegmatically: ‘If such an eruption occurs, this would therefore temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change.’

UN climate report declares planetary emergency

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbd49c7e80680e0a0b54jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The muddy waters of the Indrawati bringing down the Melamchi flood at left merging with the Bhote Kosi at Dolalghat on Monday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Scientists are loath to link individual weather events with climate change. But there is a growing consensus among climate researchers that warmer ocean and atmospheric temperatures have intensified storms.Every year for the past few years, the planet has broken its own temperature records. There are, as we speak, continental scale wildfires sweeping across Siberia, North America, Turkey and record floods recently ravaged parts of Europe.In Nepal, too, prolonged winter drought unleashed widespread wildfires. When the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rains arrived</a>, they struck with unusual ferocity in the Himalayan rain shadow. Read also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal needs to plan for plenty and scarcity of water</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang saw fires</a> burn continuously for three months this winter. Monsoon cloudbursts then hit slopes recently scorched, reducing the soil’s absorptive capacity. The runoff fed into the Marsyangdi system, washing away settlements and infrastructure.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In Sindhupalchok</a>, the combination of the destabilising effect of the 2015 earthquake, the wildfires combined with record-breaking precipitation turned the watershed into mud paste.The latest aerial clips of the upper <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi valley</a> show a massive collapse of glacio-fluvial and lake deposits by extremely heavy precipitation on 15-16 June.Nepal now has a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority</a> (NDRRMA) to carry out hazard mapping, recommend settlement zoning, infrastructure planning and provide early warning. But a nationwide warning of ‘heavier than usual precipitation’ that it issued in June was of little use — more accurate, localised forecasting is needed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W2dlEu9egY&amp;t=5sHimalayan disasters pre-date the climate crisis, and they are all interrelated. Earthquakes unleash landslides that block rivers, which burst, releasing catastrophic floods. Avalanches bulldoze glaciers into populated valleys. The danger of these calamities are now compounded by the climate crisis and unwise human intervention.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Melamchi flood</a> has added more uncertainty to the project that was supposed to start supplying drinking water this year to Kathmandu Valley through a 26.5km tunnel. Although the tunnel itself appears to have been saved, the headwork structures are under metres of mud and the access roads have been washed away. The fragile slopes upstream are still crumbling into the river, and this week’s heavy rains unleashed more floods adding to the damage from June. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The project</a> that has already cost $700 million is sure to cost even more, and will be delayed further. There was also major damage in June in a dozen hydropower projects in Lamjung and Kaski. The 465MW Upper Tama Kosi project was saved only because a landslide dammed river in China in June did not burst. If it had, a project that will generate one-third of Nepal’s electricity demand would have been destroyed even before its inauguration.The good news is that the news could have been much worse. The bad news is that these geo-ecological dangers in Nepal are sure to get worse because of climate change and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poorly engineered road-building</a>, rampant river mining, haphazard quarrying, etc. <figure><img width="2360" height="1562" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbd89c7e80680e0a0b55jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The deep fluvial debris field in the upper reaches of Melamchi Khola that is being continuously washed down by heavy rains since June. Photos: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="2580" height="1610" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfbdb9c7e80680e0a0b56jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The headworks of the Melamchi Water Supply Project showing destroyed infrastructure and buildings half-buried in mud.</figcaption></figure>Last month, a report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (IPCC) being prepared for the Climate Summit in Glasgow in November was leaked to the press. It forecast that there will be an increased impact of the climate crisis on melting ice and extreme weather as well as on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">biodiversity loss</a>, unsurvivable <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a> and ecosystem collapse. The 2015 Paris Agreement suggested that global average temperatures have to be limited to only 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next 30 years by reducing carbon emissions. It is already at 1.2 Celsius, and on track to exceed 2 Celsius by 2050.Scientists say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Himalaya will warm up to 0.3-0.7 Celsius faster</a> than the global average. This will mean that at present rates of atmospheric heating, our mountains will be losing up to two-thirds of their ice during this century. The climate emergency will add to all the other problems we in Nepal already face. It calls for strategic long-term planning to adapt to the socio-economic and environmental implications of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a hotter Himalaya</a>. Nepal’s international partners have pledged $7.4 billion for a Green Recovery project to build back greener after the pandemic. Nepal needs to switch to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/e-vehicles-prepare-for-post-lockdown-boom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clean transport</a> not just to do our bit to reduce emissions, but also to reduce the growing petroleum import bill and save the economy. There is no time to waste debating whether this year’s floods were caused by climate change or not. Leave that to the scientists. Let us plan as if it is climate-related, act accordingly, and be prepared for the frightening consequences of a Himalayan meltdown.

A hotter Himalaya

<figure><img width="2500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06609c7e80680e0a5f5cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Prolonged winter drought caused nationwide wildfires in Nepal, and this was followed by destructive floods at the start of the monsoon. Photos: NABIN LAMICHHANE/RSS (left), AMIT MACHAMASI/NEPALI TIMES (right)</figcaption></figure>After being ravaged by unprecedented <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nationwide wildfires</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deadly monsoon floods</a> this year, Nepal appears to be too busy dealing with disasters made worse by climate change to pay much attention to cutting emissions.Back-to-back calamities this year have coincided with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covid-19 pandemic</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-a-hotbed-of-virus-and-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political paralysis in Kathmandu</a> that has delayed vaccine procurement.The disasters hit Nepal even as a l<a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/someone-leaked-the-next-ipcc-report-here-s-how-experts-are-reacting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">eaked report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> showed that the impact of the climate crisis on melting ice and extreme weather will intensify in the coming decades even if governments meeting in the UK for a climate summit in November agree on ambitious carbon cuts. This year’s UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, COP26 for short, is scheduled to be held in will be held in Glasgow from October 31 – November 12. World governments will try to agree on further action on the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The four goals for the summit are to secure global net-zero by mid-century and cap global average temperatures within 1.5°C by reducing carbon emissions drastically, and mobilising resources to help low-income countries deal with the impact.“If we do not take this chance to keep 1.5°C alive, it will slip from our grasp ... every fraction of a degree makes a difference,” says Alok Sharma, president-designate for COP26, who visited Nepal earlier this year. “COP26 simply can’t be another talking shop.”The 1.5°C target is especially important for the Himalaya which scientists say is warming between 0.3-0.7 °C faster than the global average. Even if the 1.5°C target is met, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Himalaya will lose one-third of its ice</a> by the end of the century, scientists predict, and three-fourths if carbon emissions continue to rise at the present pace.  <figure><img width="1496" height="1113" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06639c7e80680e0a5f5djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The Himalaya is set to loose more of its ice than previously predicted, even if carbon emission cut targets are met. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>South Asian countries like Nepal and the Maldives, which suffer disproportionately from the impact of the climate emergency even though their per capita carbon emission are low, will be lobbying in Glasgow for resources to reduce risk from ice melting and sea-level rise.In 2009, industrialised countries promised to raise $100 billion each year by 2020 to help developing countries tackle climate impact. The actual funding fell well short of the target, and developing countries will be bringing up the issue strongly at COP26.When Alok Sharma visited Nepal in February, he travelled to Mustang to see for himself the rapid shrinking of Himalayan glaciers. He had flown over some of the wildfires that were starting at the time, and the same trans-Himalayan districts are now being battered by deadly floods and landslides.As of now, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal and its international development partners</a> are working on a $7.4 billion Green Recovery Support package for the country to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/build-back-greener/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘build back greener’ </a>following the pandemic. The package will support investments in clean energy, water, and climate change prevention, funding for sustainable forestry, and green job growth.Nepal also recently made a national commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and will further its climate action plan in Glasgow with the country’s delegates representing the interests of the Himalayan region at the summit. The receding glaciers of the Himalaya do not just affect Nepal, but nearly 1 billion people downstream in India, south-east Asia and China. A warming atmosphere is believed to be causing more more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-hit-by-disaster-during-climate-talks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">unpredictable and extreme weather events</a> in Nepal such as the prolonged winter drought that caused this year’s wildfires, and cloudbursts which unleashed floods and landslides this monsoon season.At <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-hit-by-disaster-during-climate-talks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a virtual conference last month</a> preparing for COP26, Nepali delegates raised concern that the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems was not getting enough priority in the summit agenda. They also urged more help for Himalayan countries to adapt to climate risk.“Even if we are successful in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, it will be equivalent to a 1.8°C rise in the Himalaya, and we will be losing 36% snow by the end of the century,” Arun Bhatta of Nepal’s Ministry of Forests and Environment told the meeting. After his visit to Nepal in February, Alok Sharma said he had seen for himself the impact of climate change on the mountains, including people being forced to abandon villages, and he pledged to amplify the voices of those most vulnerable to the climate crisis. <figure><img width="1305" height="1266" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06679c7e80680e0a5f5ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>COP26 president Alok Sharma with the President Bidya Devi Bhandari in Kathmandu in February. Photo: THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE</figcaption></figure>The leaked IPCC report painted an apocalyptic picture of ‘species extinction, epidemics, unsurvivable heat waves, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas’. Experts say the report is important because it paints a much more catastrophic picture of climate impact ahead of the Glasgow summit.The IPCC is a grouping of the world's climate scientists, and its reports are supposed to be read by the world’s government so they can take timely action. Its leaked report says that even if the 1.5°C target is met, the climate crisis would ‘fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades’.Ever since the Working Group 2 report was outed, the beginning of the northern summer has seen record-breaking summer temperatures in the Canadian northwest, unprecedented ice loss in the Arctic, and huge tundra fires in Siberia.The report calls for drastic action, saying that just converting gasoline fuelled cars to electric vehicles will not prevent a climate meltdown.

We’ve seen fire, and we’ve seen rain

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93019c7e80680e06f180jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1502" height="1000"/><figcaption>Mahendra Shrestha, 61, of Melamchi Bazar breaks down as he surveys the damage to his house on Wednesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal sits upon a pyramid of problems: poverty, inequality, exclusion, domestic violence, social injustice, l<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-epidemic-of-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ack of food</a> ... the list is long.On top of all that, for more than a year now, Nepalis have struggled with the health and economic emergency set off by the pandemic. And this week, we suffered floods that killed at least 25 — mostly in the same areas affected by the 2015 earthquakes.Meanwhile, Nepal’s predominantly rain-fed agriculture is affected by extreme weather events exacerbated by the climate crisis. Nepal had the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG7snQxuyb8ljJ-v8_vj85fB3rJtg">worst wildfire season</a> in living memory this spring. Right across the Himalayan foothills, the mountains burned from November till March – and at its peak there were nearly 2,000 fires raging out of control.The scorched earth barely had time to regenerate when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6XySMZiv3mcpFc2sspLEcF7C1MQ">the monsoon arrived this week with a bang</a>. A low-pressure system lingered over Central Nepal 13-16 June, dumping record precipitation, much of it in the trans-Himalayan region which is supposed to be in the rain-shadow. The denuded slopes could not hold the water, and the runoff surged into rivers washing away homes, bridges, roads and hydropower plants.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93049c7e80680e06f181jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1174" height="770"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Disasters are of two kinds: ‘natural’ calamities that hit without warning, and slow-moving ones that worsen incrementally. Earthquakes, floods and landslides get all the media attention — especially if there are good social media visuals. News, by definition, has to be unexpected, preferably sudden and with lots of casualties in one place.Journalism is less prepared to cover lingering crises, where thousands die over time, silently and scattered across remote areas of the country. The fact that half the country’s children suffer some form of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/hunger-for-governance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">malnutrition is a disaster</a>  So are the high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. These are silent emergencies.We chronicle the daily Covid-19 death toll, but there are no headlines that say dozens of children died yesterday all over Nepal due to preventable causes. There is no one doing that daily tally, and announcing it in a press briefing.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93079c7e80680e06f182jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2244" height="1122"><figcaption>Aerial view of the Melamchi Water Supply Project headworks is covered in mud after Tuesday's flashflood. Eight staff, including Indian and Chinese nationals are missing. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKPr6SuzZQataATHZkSSug0XBLuA">Natural disasters are not natural</a>. Floods by themselves do not ‘wreak havoc’, they do so when houses are allowed to be built along floodplains. This week’s floods in Manang, Mustang, Kaski, Sindhupalchok were not unexpected. The intensity of rain may have been beyond our control, but preparing for a flood in a high-risk zone should have been.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%20,2224" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%2520,2224&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE3Asf_cnEe616L_p7i6YacCKXJnA">Sindhupalchok</a> was hit by both the 25 April and 12 May <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGldHe3LcBfv9vWQUhfUXZhfPWjmQ">earthquakes in 2015, </a>which caused massive landslides. Haphazard road-building on fragile slopes increased the danger, and one of these landslides blocked the Melamchi about 3 km upstream from the headworks of the water supply project. A similar slope failure dammed the Indrawati.When it burst, the Melamchi Khola swept into the water supply project camp, and eight people including six Indian and Chinese and two Nepali workers are missing. Downstream, two more bodies have been found and 17 are more unsccounted for. Luckily, the 26.5km tunnel bringing water to Kathmandu from Melamchi had been closed a few hours before for inspection, and this saved the project from major damage.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930a9c7e80680e06f183jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2110" height="1388"><figcaption>The Melamchi Khola was dammed by a landslide 3km upstream from the tunnel intake. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure>The torrent of liquid mud on both rivers arrived simultaneously at their confluence in Melamchi Bazar. Geographer Narendra Khanal has traced the Indrawati River blockage to a point 20km upstream. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology monitoring station shows the Indrawati flowing at 4.7m at 4OM on 15 June, decreasing to 3m, and then shooting up to 6m at 6:45PM.“This is an indication that the river was blocked upstream in an area with major landslides after the 2015 earthquake, and suddenly the water broke through,” Khanal explains.T<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHl03Z5EnJptFLNkk3GSzcew1FCVw">he river overflowed into Melamchi Bazar</a> at high velocity because much of the sand and boulders that would have slowed it down had been mined by construction contractors.He says none of the glacial lakes in the Jugal Himal appear to have burst. Although this was fortunate, it also shows how much more catastrophic future floods can be if <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGpEfjfrRnTUfi0zqzCpVxtkmmU-A">expanding Himalayan lakes formed by global warming burst</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930c9c7e80680e06f184jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="1074"><figcaption>Google Map showing the Melamchi and Indrawati Rivers and the location of landslide dams. Illustration: NARENDRA KHANAL</figcaption></figure>The reason for the loss of property was not the flood itself, but unplanned construction on the floodplain. Luckily, Ward 11 Chair Rudra Dulal in Melamchi Bazar had advance information about the incoming flood and moved 100 families out of harm's way after informing police to begin evacuation.“We received an early warning and we mobilised our team, informed everyone. This is the only reason why we didn’t have any casualties in our community,” Dulal says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93109c7e80680e06f185jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1686" height="656"><figcaption>Measurements on the Indrawati on the evening of 15 June showed how the water level dropped and rose suddenly, indicating that the river was dammed upstream. Graph: DoHM</figcaption></figure>Elsewhere, at least 12 under-construction hydropower plants have been badly damaged. The worst hit was a 44MW project nearing completion on the Madi Khola in Kaski. The powerhouse and headworks were hit, while 15 excavators, tipper trucks and other vehicles washed away. Other functioning private and government hydropower plants in Central Nepal have either been shutdown as a precaution, or have been damaged.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1lKvl7D25KSM42Af5nLcpa0I1MQ">None of this was unexpected.</a> Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) had warned last week that weather modellers had predicted that this year’s monsoon would be above average in Nepal. What could not be forecast was how much more rain there would be, and which districts would be most vulnerable.Indeed, areas of the Himalayan rain shadow which usually lie north of the mountains and receive scanty rainfall, were also bad affected after continuous rain for 24 hours from Monday till Tuesday afternoon.Pokhrel of the NDRRMA had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGXs55ZclYXxCduK6EEyQl0Crdbfw">written in Nepali Times</a> last week: “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFbSPEJs2UX-K7QIAOTig451h4l5A">Wildfires that raged for months</a> burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93129c7e80680e06f186jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption>Weather modelling by the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum last month showed that the 2021 monsoon would be above normal in most parts of Nepal. Source: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>Last year was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEDVMmcO2dZ90k97FCI0k-ydO2hNw">the worst monsoon season</a> in the past two decades in terms of casualties: there were 500 major landslides, nearly 300 killed and 70 missing. Most of the landslides were, again, in Sindhupalchok and were blamed on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH4Q6nXwNjQTaXeXHnXeFPJ9JHJfw">poor and unregulated road construction </a>that disturbed the slopes.A cyclonic circulation over northern India means the rains have continued along the Himalayan foothills, and it is forecast to continue through the weekend. In Melamchi Bazar, there was fresh warning of inundation and people were evacuated on Thursday afternoon.As the monsoon progresses, much of the flood action will shift to the Tarai. There, too, this year the floods will 'wreak havoc'. And again, the submergence will largely be due to constriction of rivers by embankments, settlements along flood plains, perimeter walls that act as dams, and the denudation and destruction of the Chure Range.There was a flood of recrimination last year, many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQI0_rIuaafLfQ4j-eHmMPV_JmRg">commentators lamented the lack of oversight. </a>But there has been no let-up in destructive road-building. This week, Nepal’s seven provinces passed budgets in which most of their revenue is going to be derived from quarry and sand-mining contractors allowed to unsustainably exploit natural resources. The government has allowed river valleys and the fragile Chure <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to be mined for stone exports to India</a>.With politicians distracted by one upmanship, and federalism not functioning because of micro-management by parties in Kathmandu, this season of disasters will be talked about for a while. Until next year’s monsoon.

Disasters in Nepal come in waves

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4ba9c7e80680e0966c9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nagarkot’s Datadol forest is the latest to experience a wildfire, as a series of fire incidents continue to be reported from across the country.A fire sparked off by ‘unknown causes’, according to the local residents, engulfed major parts of the forest on Saturday, starting at around 5PM. It took three fire trucks, assisted by local men, several hours into the night to douse the fire.There had been smaller fires incidents in the community forest in the past, but locals say they had never seen anything of the scale recorded on Saturday night.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIbZqjPO260<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4be9c7e80680e0966cajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4c19c7e80680e0966cbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4c49c7e80680e0966ccjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4c79c7e80680e0966cdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4ca9c7e80680e0966cejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048">"We've no idea how the fire started," Bane Tamanag, a Nagarkot resident told Nepali Times.Local residents said they were not aware what had started the fire. Similar feedback has been reported in other forest fire incidents in other parts of the country, with witnesses saying the source of the fire was unknown.On Sunday, a forest fire also broke out in Shivapuri Nagarjuna National Park. Nepal Police, Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and choppers from private airlines were deployed to douse the fire, which continued in some parts of the conservation area during the night, leaving the area shrouded in dense air.An extended winter drought left the forests tinder-dry, sparking fires across the Himalayas late last year. Forest fires had started spreading in the Manang Valley around Chame in late November, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618205140220000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfyQyHSyP5Q4GmbAHC7vpg4fvzOw">in Pathibhara in eastern Nepal</a>, in December. Since then, hundreds of wildfires have spread across the Tarai and mid-mountains of Nepal.The country continues to endure the record <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618205140220000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8vIfbdr-yViYeRHWfeDfPwOTApQ">worst air quality</a> in recent years because of the wildfires that have ravaged the forests at unprecedented rates. The country has been shrouded in smoke from forest fires for close to three weeks, made worse by the vehicular emissions and industrial pollution.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4cd9c7e80680e0966cfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4d09c7e80680e0966d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4d39c7e80680e0966d1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4d79c7e80680e0966d2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3072" height="2048">Similar fire situations have been reported in neighbouring India. Last week, four people were killed in India’s Uttarakhand, when a fire engulfed 62 hectares of forest area. The Uttarakhand government deployed 12,000 forest guards and firefighters to put out the fire and also called an emergency meeting.  The state has reported 983 incidents of wildfires that have destroyed 105.85 hectares already.In Nepal, no such measures have been taken and there is no account available of the loss of wildlife or areas of forest, to the fires. Concerns over the situation have been expressed by a number of people who are working in the environment and climate change sector, while the government has come under criticism for its lack of response to the situation from various quarters.“An environment crisis is never just about the environment: climate change has political-economic antecedents in energy policy, hazardous air pollution is caused by regulatory failure, political neglect leads to health crisis,” wrote environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar, on Twitter.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/thick-haze-adds-to-nepal-covid-19-woes/">Thick haze adds to Nepal Covid-19 woes</a>, Sonia Awale

While the forests are burning

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4589c7e80680e0966a5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: BIJAYABAR PRADHAN</figcaption></figure>Nepalis continue to endure the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617953717287000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEbW59z8VbgZZSIjeZJqsVCCawClw">worst air quality</a> in recent years as wildfires ravage the forests at unprecedented rates. The country has been shrouded in smoke from forest fires for two weeks, made worse by the vehicular emissions and industrial pollution.The scale of the pollution can be gauged from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-smoky-mountains/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-smoky-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617953717287000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE7B78TtM7NBozWEdhc5gQQCkyOqQ">this series of photographs</a> of Kathmandu Valley taken from the same spot at Chobar, a year apart.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/">Nepal is going up in smoke</a>, Kunda Dixit<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce45c9c7e80680e0966a6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce45f9c7e80680e0966a7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4619c7e80680e0966a8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4649c7e80680e0966a9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="960">An extended winter drought left the forests tinder dry, sparking fires across the Himalayas late last year. Forest fires had started spreading in the Manang Valley around Chame in late November, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617953717287000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFuR8ItxSKUdYvnJ0sf_YTjEwbbSQ">in Pathibhara in eastern Nepal</a>, in December. Since then, hundreds of wildfires have spread across the Tarai and mid-mountains of Nepal.These images of locals trying to put out a wildfire making way through the forests near Phoksundo Lake since 3 April, were taken by photographer, Bijayabar Pradhan.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4679c7e80680e0966aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce46a9c7e80680e0966abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce46d9c7e80680e0966acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/thick-haze-adds-to-nepal-covid-19-woes/">Thick haze adds to Nepal Covid-19 woes</a>, Sonia Awale

wildfires