Will President Donald Trump give his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping a gift? While Trump prizes unpredictability, Xi aims to position China as a force for global stability. Thus, there is a widespread assumption that China will rush to fill the vacuum left by an increasingly nationalist and isolationist United States.
The Chinese leadership has no interest in filling America’s shoes. Attempting to do so could cost China dearly just when it is undertaking a broader economic reorientation at home. The world may be tired of US interventionism – and, now, of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/trump-s-first-month">Trumpian aggression</a> – but that does not mean it is ready to welcome an abstemious superpower.&nbsp;
China has studiously avoided becoming involved in major crises beyond its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake">immediate neighbourhood</a>. Though it has proposed global initiatives on ‘development’, ‘security’, and ‘civilisation’, and articulated a vision of multipolarity in which all countries are treated equally, its efforts to realise these goals have not gone beyond economic statecraft.
While foreign commentators debate what <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-xi-jinping-s-big-surprise">China’s vision </a>entails – with some describing it as a potentially benevolent hegemon, and others as a malevolent one – Chinese authorities and intellectuals are more immediately concerned with weathering the storm that Trump has unleashed.
Viewed from outside, China’s core <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/staying-neutral-in-a-us-china-confrontation-8qni2ij1">national interests</a> seems straightforward: to replace the US as global leader. But pursuing that role may contradict other core interests, such as maintaining regime legitimacy and security, orchestrating a continuous rise in living standards, and reunifying Taiwan with the mainland.&nbsp;
These goals might best be served by maintaining a cold peace with the US, rather than embracing conflict with it.
Having watched the US, China knows all too well that being a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4815">global superpower </a>would inevitably draw it into regional conflagrations that it would prefer to avoid. But China also knows that it has benefited massively from the relatively stable world economy that the US and its allies helped bring about.
China needs to retain enormous amounts of resources and manpower domestically to tackle its biggest challenges. Chinese leaders must <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-bubble-economy">manage an economy</a> that is no longer driven primarily by property development and exports, while preparing for the possibility that one of its largest trading partners could descend into total isolation.
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and escalatory duties in response to Chinese countermeasures were a wake-up call. Whatever happens in the trade war, China urgently needs to rebalance its economy by stimulating greater domestic demand.
While Chinese leaders have long acknowledged the need for such a rebalancing, they have been slow to follow through with the necessary policies. Public messaging notwithstanding, they have continued to prioritise industrial output over living standards, and capital investment over consumer spending. But the prospect of losing one of its biggest export markets should change this calculation.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">Turning point in US-India relations</a>, Shashi Tharoor
Similarly, China has an interest in building resilient supply chains for critical technologies in order to circumvent US chokepoints. A significant share of national resources has already been redirected toward promoting domestic innovation.&nbsp;
With the Sino-American rivalry intensifying over the past decade, Chinese leaders have come to regard domestic innovation as a strategic necessity.
Beyond boosting domestic innovation, China is eager to seize opportunities to set the global governance agenda for emerging technologies.&nbsp;
Its recent successes in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-be-more-intelligent-about-ai">AI</a> – most notably <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship">DeepSeek</a>’s release of low-cost models that rival those from top US developers – have created a strong impetus for China to amplify its voice. China’s message – that a handful of rich countries should not be able to monopolise the technologies that will determine everyone’s economic future – undoubtedly resonates with many around the world.
During the post-Liberation Day staring contest with the US, China convened an impromptu gathering of the all-powerful Politburo and Chinese ambassadors stationed abroad. The purpose was to assess China’s relations with its neighbours, and the stature of those in attendance spoke to the sense of crisis that had swept through the country’s top leadership.&nbsp;
More to the point, the meeting confirmed that China’s strategic orientation remains focused on its own region – not the global context.
Beijing remains fully committed to maintaining strong ties with the Kremlin, viewing Russo-Chinese alignment as a geographical and strategic necessity. The two countries’ 4,209km land border gives China more than enough reason to work with Russia.&nbsp;
China’s ultimate focus is not Russia but its long-term rivalry with the US. An axis with President Vladimir Putin’s regime might well offer a workable (if imperfect) solution to the containment strategy that America has been pursuing against China.
Likewise, China has been de-escalating tensions with India, another large, nuclear-armed neighbour. Both know that the structural and historical strains on their relationship – characterised by an obvious power imbalance and mutual mistrust – will not be easily eliminated. But both also know that predictable, stable ties will yield big benefits over time, especially in a new multipolar order.
PAX SINICA
Beyond managing relations with its immediate neighbours, China has sought to mobilise the Global South behind reforms to multilateral institutions.&nbsp;
When Chinese leaders and diplomats speak of ushering in an ‘orderly multipolarity’, they mean an international order in which the non-Western world has much more clout. Hence, China is a strong advocate of the recent BRICS expansion, and of proposals to redistribute voting shares within Western-dominated international financial institutions.
China has also sought to shape the agenda at United Nations-affiliated institutions where the US historically has had less influence, such as at UN Trade and Development and the South Centre. It can assume a limited leadership role without directly confronting the US and the rest of the G7.&nbsp;
China does have a foreign-policy interest in subtly countering US influence in the developing world, which is why it builds large-scale infrastructure and addresses long-ignored development needs there without making any demands about democracy, human rights, and accountability.&nbsp;
Instead of offering security guarantees, China offers roads and bridges. In exchange, it can secure access to critical raw materials and open new markets for its state-owned enterprises and private companies at a time when the US and Europe are closing their doors.
China did broker a modest rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and its Global Security Initiative <a href="https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2024/10/the-global-security-initiative-chinas-international-policing-activities/" target="_blank">aims to</a> foster international cooperation in counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, biosecurity, and emerging technologies.
But in the case of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine?%2F=">Russia-Ukraine </a>and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/mortality-in-the-gaza-israel-war"> Israel-Hamas</a> wars, it has avoided taking direct responsibility, let alone providing any security guarantees. Of course, China’s self-proclaimed neutrality on the war in Ukraine has not gone unchallenged.&nbsp;
In Gaza, China has criticised the US for supporting Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s agenda of continuing the war. But unlike Iran – which China relies on for oil – these other flashpoints have been kept at arm’s length.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/world-wars">World wars</a>
China would face three big challenges in pursuing even partial or limited global leadership. First, given America’s accelerated withdrawal from international affairs, China might struggle to sustain its commercial engagement with many parts of the world. After all, the US wants to impose drastic costs on those who do business with China, and it may well get its way.
Second, China cannot avoid engagement in dangerous security situations forever. Sooner or later, it will have to develop a truly global foreign policy. In fact, simply putting its own Global Security Initiative into practice would require it to do much more heavy lifting, not only in setting the agenda but also in terms of deploying security personnel and resources. America may be retreating, but that does not mean it will sit idly by and watch China try to increase its own influence.
Third, China still needs to orchestrate a domestic economic rebalancing – a process that will have enormous global consequences. Shifting from export-led growth to greater domestic consumption will take years, and the push to rebalance may run up against China’s ambition to remain a global manufacturing powerhouse.&nbsp;
The latter objective is already causing tensions with Europe and some developing countries whose domestic manufacturers are struggling to compete with Chinese national champions (such as the electric-vehicle maker BYD).
Even as its economy continues to grow, China will remain a largely self-centered and reluctant superpower. Unlike the US, its domestic political economy calls for a more restrained foreign policy, focused primarily on its immediate neighbours and commercial opportunities in the Global South.
As the world grapples with the decline of US power and the shift toward multipolarity, China will increasingly become the centre of gravity in the global economy. The rivalry between a political and military superpower and an economic one will be dangerous for everyone. Both must tread carefully to prevent economic warfare from escalating into a conflict that all would regret.
&nbsp;©Project Syndicate&nbsp;
Yu Jie is a senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House.

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What China wants

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141148/636a5efb9c7e80680e056dfbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1329"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>It is once more that time of year when Nepalis eat, drink, and make merry in family reunions. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/octoberfest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dasain</a> is what binds the Nepali world, together with our shared history and culture. The festival has transcended religion to become a time for society and the nation to unite in common celebration, and revive our collective hope for the future.Dasain is said to have its origins in a proto-Hindu harvest festival, the myths about the victory of good over evil and the goddess impaling a water buffalo came much later. With the monsoon over, paddy fields turn from green to gold, the clouds start blowing from west to east again, there is a nip in the air, and the hills are deep green. The snow mountains come out, shiny with new snow.In recent years, as more and more Nepalis travel overseas for work, study or to emigrate, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/dasain-goes-global,3950" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the diaspora Dasain</a> is a stark reminder of how family members endure prolonged periods of separation. With more than 15% of Nepal’s population living and working abroad, the flights into Kathmandu are full of Nepalis coming home for the festival. Kathmandu itself empties out as people go home to their ancestral villages.Dasain has always had an escapist character. It is a time when people can forget their daily struggle against unemployment, inflation, shortages, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-klepto-republic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corruption</a> and the lack of basic services. Those problems can wait, while we re-establish family ties, and perhaps even reaffirm a hope for the future, holding out in the belief that things will get better. However dark the clouds are, the sun will come out -- Dasain gives us a booster shot of optimism.But, we have to admit, the weeks leading up to Dasain this year did not give us much reason to hope. Ruling party hotheads attacked and beat up self-styled royalist Gyanendra Shahi for having ridiculed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=yogesh+bhattarai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Minister of Civil Aviation and Tourism Yogesh Bhattarai</a>. Police just stood by. Minendra Rijal of the Nepali Congress was roughed up by NCP goondas in Tanahu. NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal regularly threatens the opposition in his public speeches, while Information Minister Gokul Banskota does not even try to hide his disdain for a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/creeping-control-over-the-press-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">free press</a>.But perhaps nothing indicates the state of impunity and lawlessness in this country more than the rape charge against House Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara this week. Prime Minister Oli and Dahal probably realised how seriously this would affect the NCP’s public image, and acted swiftly to instruct Mahara to tender a written resignation, which he did reluctantly and in ambivalent language. Predictably, the woman who accused the speaker of unspeakable crime has been 'persuaded' to retract her complaint.The Prime Minister seems to be fully aware of the level of disillusionment among Nepalis about the party to which they gave a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Oli himself is having <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-wait-and-wait-mode/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">serious health issues</a>, the government had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/four-year-itch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failed in service delivery</a>, it has a dismal record of non-performance, and Nepalis every day negotiate infrastructure that is in a dangerous state of disrepair.None of that had particularly worried the prime minister’s office, but the Mahara scandal appears to have seriously rattled the NCP, and forced it into crisis mode. By taking prompt action to force the Speaker out, Oli is showing belated decisiveness. The government shutting down for holidays will provide Oli some respite, but ultimately the prime minister will be tempted to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dangerous-driving/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reshuffle his cabinet</a> -- an age-old method for Nepal’s rulers to buy time to defuse a crisis.This time, things may have gone a bit too far for a reshuffle to resolve. The rot goes to the top. When tycoons have access to Oli’s parlour at Baluwatar or his hospital bed in Singapore, one has to question how much the collusion between contractors and the government is hurting the country. Roads never get repaired, bridges never get built, national pride projects are a national shame.Nearly half-way through its tenure in office, Prime Minister Oli will have to do some serious thinking over the holidays. How is he going to make up for lost time and get this government machinery cranked up? If he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/own-worst-enemy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has not been able to govern and perform</a> in the past two years, it is unlikely he can get anything done.Oli is probably banking on the visit to Kathmandu by Chinese President Xi Jiping later this month to lift his stature and nationalist credentials. There will probably some grandiose announcement, perhaps of the trans-Himalayan railway.Being the wily politician that he is, Oli will not have to be told that people are looking for immediate and tangible hope that tomorrow will be better than today. This Dasain, most Nepalis will be trying not to think about tomorrow.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/octoberfest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Octoberfest,</a> Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dangerous-driving/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dangerous driving</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/four-year-itch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Four-year itch</a>, Editorial<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>In his column, State of the State, ten years ago in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #471 of 25 September-1 October 2009,</a> C K Lal analyses the evolution of the Dasain festival:Ironically, those who gave Dasain pan-Nepal acceptability - the Janjatis of the mid-mountains from the east and west - have begun to call for its boycott. Within the British and Indian Gurkhas, the lahures kept the faith through their own secular celebrations of religious festivities such as Dasain and Tihar.Thus they kept in touch with the idea of Nepal and Nepalis rather than their own ethnic particularities. As long as these indefatigable fighters continue to serve abroad, Dasain celebrations there will retain their secular character.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/471"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141148/636a5efd9c7e80680e056dfcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="772"></a>

DASAIN ONCE MORE

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171152/636937b89c7e80680e03fe57jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1476"/>MADRID – Sadly, 2018 will not be remembered as a year of political and diplomatic success. Though the international order had already begun to erode in 2017, the global political environment became downright chaotic, combustible, and hostile this year. That is no coincidence, as these are perhaps the three adjectives that best describe the United States under President Donald Trump.Since January 2018, when the Trump administration announced tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, the year has been marked by an escalating “trade war,” waged primarily – but not exclusively – by the US against China. The ongoing tariff disputes have seriously <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/19/the-trade-war-has-claimed-its-first-victim/">undermined</a> the World Trade Organization and deepened mutual distrust in Sino-American relations.For its part, China this year <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-term-limit-explainer.html">eliminated</a> presidential term limits, raising fears that President Xi Jinping’s so-called <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/18/i-mastered-xi-jinping-thought-and-i-have-the-certificate-to-prove-it/">new era</a> will end the period of collective leadership ushered in by Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, which were themselves a corrective to Mao’s cult of personality. This move could also herald a further deviation from Deng’s trademark foreign-policy restraint.Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin was reelected in March, to no one’s surprise. Under Putin, Russia has been re-emerging as a geopolitical force. And yet, its economy is essentially stagnant, owing in part to its excessive dependence on hydrocarbons. In the absence of growth, Putin has relied on foreign policy to shore up his domestic popularity.For example, Putin’s campaign press secretary welcomed the British government’s response to the nerve-agent attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal, because it may have <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/kremlin-thanks-britain-for-putin-s-landslide-victory-a3793546.html">mobilized</a> Putin’s supporters in the run-up to the presidential election. And the Kremlin’s recent decision to blockade Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov may also have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/26/is-there-link-between-putins-approval-rating-aggressive-russian-foreign-policy/?utm_term=.7f850b68f13d">designed</a> to boost Putin’s domestic approval rating, among other goals. The danger now is that both the US and Russia will cease to implement the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, posing a new and acute <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/12/13/will-europe-try-to-save-the-inf-treaty/">threat to Europe</a> in particular.Meanwhile, the Middle East has continued to serve as a battlefield for some of the world’s most violent conflicts. Though the Islamic State (ISIS) has continued to <a href="https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/22-months-of-war-condensed-in-a-1-minute-video">lose ground</a>, it is far from defeated – contrary to what Trump <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1075528854402256896">has claimed</a> – and the death toll in Syria’s civil war continues to climb. Likewise, the humanitarian calamity in Yemen has deepened, though negotiations that ran aground in 2016 have at least resumed and made <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/making-yemens-hodeida-deal-stick">some progress</a>. In Afghanistan, what is widely regarded as the longest-running war in US history continues, and <a href="https://thenewsrep.com/109943/is-afghanistan-a-lost-cause-taliban-control-more-territory-since-2001/">it is estimated</a> that the Taliban now controls more territory than at any time since their government was overthrown in 2001.Despite some recent developments in the aforementioned conflicts, the underpinnings of the Trump administration’s general strategy in the Middle East remained intact in 2018. The US has reaffirmed its <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/06/18/donald-trumps-new-world-order">support</a> for the axis of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which it regards as a bulwark against Iran. In May, the Trump administration moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. That same month, it abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and announced an abusive re-imposition of extraterritorial sanctions, which reflects the increasing <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-secondary-sanctions-eu-iran-by-mark-leonard-2018-10">weaponization of the US dollar</a>.Moreover, by siding with the Saudi government over his own intelligence agencies in the <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/confronting-saudi-policies-free-speech-yemen-syria-by-leon-willems-2018-12">murder</a> of journalist <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jamal-khashoggi">Jamal Khashoggi</a> in October, Trump has made clear that opposing Iran and purchasing US arms is one of the quickest ways to his heart. The result of his broad approach to the Middle East has been to empower military hardliners throughout the region. In fact, Israel and Iran this year engaged in their first-ever <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/11/iran-israel-little-incentive-hurry-down-path-war">direct military encounter</a>.Trump has also contributed, in one way or another, to the advance of populism around the world in 2018. In Latin America, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro have shown that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/dec/03/what-is-populism-trump-farage-orban-bolsonaro">populism</a>” can encompass diverse ideologies. While both claim to speak for “the people” against “the elites,” the leftist AMLO was elected partly as a <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/01/mexico-election-trump-populist-lopez-obrador-664243">rebuke</a> to Trump, whereas Bolsonaro embraces a Trump-like brand of right-wing nationalism, and enjoys the <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/01/mexico-election-trump-populist-lopez-obrador-664243">support</a> of many Brazilian elites.The Russian philosopher Aleksandr Dugin, often regarded as one of the Kremlin’s main ideologues, <a href="https://www.politicaexterior.com/actualidad/trump-paso-hacia-objetivo-insuficiente/">argues</a> that “populism should unite right-wing values with socialism, social justice, and anti-capitalism.” This “integral populism,” he believes, is perfectly illustrated by Italy’s current governing coalition, which comprises the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the nationalist League party.In October, Italy’s government instigated a conflict with the European Union (which has fortunately <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/italy-avoids-eu-sanctions-after-reaching-2019-budget-agreement">subsided</a>) by proposing a budget that defied EU fiscal rules. Italy’s leaders justified their policies in the name of an outdated interpretation of “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/10/eu-rejected-italy-budget-populists/573742/">sovereignty</a>,” one similar to that of the United Kingdom’s Brexiteers, whose haphazardness has left the UK’s future shrouded in uncertainty.There were a few positive developments in 2018. Certainly, the easing of tensions between the US and North Korea, and the even deeper rapprochement between North and South Korea, should be welcomed. Much credit belongs to South Korean President <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/moon-jae-in">Moon Jae-in</a>, who used the occasion of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang to reach out to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Trump’s subsequent turn toward diplomacy – which led to his historic summit with Kim – should also be applauded, though his administration has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-rejects-denuclearization-unless-us-nuclear-threat-is-eliminated/2018/12/20/fcf642a2-0438-11e9-b5df-5d3874f1ac36_story.html?utm_term=.c0a8c770d20f">yet to achieve</a> anything more than symbolic progress toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.The result of the US midterm elections was also good news. Democratic control of the House of Representatives means that, from January 2019, there will be more checks on Trump’s policies. And there have been welcome developments in the Republican-controlled Senate, where a recent resolution condemning Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the murder of Khashoggi, and another to end US support for the Saudi campaign in Yemen, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/yemen-saudi-war-pompeo-mattis.html?module=inline">passed</a> with bipartisan support.In Europe, the prospects for 2019 will depend primarily on three factors: Brexit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/826a4986-f7ac-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c">EU reform</a>, and the European Parliament election in May. In each case, one hopes that the supporters of democracy, the rule of law, European integration, and multilateralism will prevail.Those who oppose these principles have had a rather good year. But they would be mistaken to think that those who uphold them have lost the will – and the ability – to cultivate a spirit of cooperation and harmony.     © Project SyndicateJavier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain.

Good riddance to 2018

The book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Another-South-Asia-Nath-Pathak/dp/9386552582" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another South Asia!</a> with an assertive exclamation mark in its title requires one to pause, and step back to recall what is South Asia, before one engages with the idea of what could be ‘another’.The essays in this book explore institutional lapses like <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/saarc-timeline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAARC</a> which have not done much about the region, and includes the failure of academics. The book posits the possibility of exploring ‘another’: a soothing, disarming, and yet not credulous, utopia.It is common to understand the region <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/reimagining-south-asia,396" target="_blank" rel="noopener">through the lens of ‘India’s hegemonic power’</a> -- often provides for understanding everything bad in South Asia, be it the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian Blockade of Nepal</a> or the omnipresence of China’s influence in the region. The book jolts one out of this intellectual stupor, rejecting not just the conventional approach, but also explores a tapestry of lived history woven into the fabric of daily life. It begins to feel that there is more to the idea of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/On-the-way-up/Different-regionalisms-SAARC,987" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South Asia</a> than one realised.The book explores South Asia through its fluid faiths and intellectual history, cross border bonhomie of artists, revolutionary poets of the region in the framework of ‘organic intellectuals’, and the Progressive Writers’ Association as a case for a South Asian literary imagination.That is not all. The dramatic and performative traditions of the region show them to be trans-local and deeply melodramatic without being Bollywood-like. It also invites us to see, smell, and savour South Asia far beyond its cartographic territory. Most importantly, this all premises on the idea that the region ought to be understood on its own both as a World Region, a civilisational entity in its own right.This is a refreshing departure from intellectual preoccupations of scholars, diplomats, bureaucrats, and officials who tend to be in confusion about South Asia. It is not too concerned with finding ‘the other’, but in this strength is also its weakness. Even while the book accepts the predominance of the state in South Asia, it resists an attempt to have a discussion about it. It is perhaps due to the objective of exploring much needed utopian imagination.  The book can only be summarised in metaphor, which is also a metaphor for the history of South Asia. The Jinnah House in Bombay which Indians cannot understand why after insisting on a separate nation, Jinnah said he wanted to spend a peaceful retired life in it after partition. Pakistani diplomats insist that it is a sign of Jinnah’s generosity, and that Indians have misunderstood him. Meanwhile, the biggest builder of Bombay who is also a member of parliament wants to pull it down, and replace it with something ‘better’.If the gates of that abandoned house were to be opened for people to live in it, and the house was to have a library, one imagines that a copy of this book would find a prized place on the shelves of that library. Another South Asia! Offers that tantalising possibility.  Shray Mehta is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology, South Asian University, New DelhiAnother South Asia!Edited by Dev Nath PathakNew Delhi: Primus Books, 2017ISBN: 978-93-86552-58-7Price: INR 1,395		
										<img width="344" height="499" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933af9c7e80680e03dfb1jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/sorry-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sorry state</a>, Editorial

Re-imagining South Asia

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369048b9c7e80680e037d2bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1167"/><figcaption>Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>Now that the leaders of the awkwardly acronymed BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) are in the process of departing from Kathmandu after their fourth Summit, it might be the time for a post-mortem.The greatest achievement for Nepal from the Summit, as far as ordinary citizens of some parts of the capital are concerned, is that at least some of the muddy roads got paved, and the ugly dumping sites got fenced off.By the weekend, Kathmandu will be limping back to the old normal: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18124#.W4fFP84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">traffic jams,</a> decrepit roads, crumbling sidewalks, a grubby jungle of brick and concrete. And people will once more go about their daily lives, resigned to the fact that through feudalism, absolute monarchy, dictatorship or democracy, nothing will really change in this country.No matter how many potholes were hurriedly patched, colourful gates erected, or flags allowed to hang limply above the motorcades, there was no hiding from visitors the rot within. The Thai leader reportedly refused to join the retreat in Gokarna despite the PMO’s prodding because of the poor condition of the road.What a sorry state Nepal has become with its decomposing democracy, eroding rule of law, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impunity</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/gigantism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cheap populism</a>, a pandemic of corruption and dilapidated infrastructure. All the more glaring because we have a powerful ruling party with full mandate to fix it all if it wanted to.It might be best to call a moratorium on any future summits or high-level international conferences in Kathmandu until we get our own house in order by cleaning up the city and the politics. No matter how good our hospitality or how far-reaching BIMSTEC resolutions, the state of Nepal will influence the way the Nepali state is treated by our neighbours and the international community.BIMSTEC was set up 20 years ago as an alternative to SAARC, which got ensnared in India-Pakistan acrimony.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/Boycotting-SAARC-is-not-the-answer,794" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAARC minus 'X'</a>, Pradumna Rana<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Analysis/pride-and-prejudice-at-SAARC,394" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pride and prejudice at SAARC</a>, Kanak DixitThe new sub-regional body tried to ‘look east’ with a focus on trade and connectivity by dropping Pakistan and adding Thailand and Burma, and picking up Bhutan and Nepal along the way. Getting South Asia’s plodding elephants to hobnob with Southeast Asia's sprinting tigers, however, has not been as easy as first envisaged. Even so, linking the northeastern quadrant of South Asia through connectivity, energy grids and trade could be beneficial for all members.Geopolitics, and the deepening polarisation between China and the US-India axis could put a spanner in the works. Beijing’s Belt Road Initiative competes with its emphasis on connectivity. BIMSTEC was India's way of sidelining Pakistan, and the military exercises of its member states in Pune next week is meaningful.There are other sub-regional initiatives besides the Dhaka-headquartered BIMSTEC. One of them is BCIM that evolved out of the Kunming Initiative and brings China’s Yunnan in an economic sphere with Bangladesh, India and Burma.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/connecting-Bangladesh-China-India-Nepal,2966" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIMSTEC, BCIM, BBIN</a>, - &amp; 'BCIN', Kanak Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/reimagining-south-asia,396" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Re-imagining South Asia</a>, Anurag AcharyaWhen politics got in the way, countries in the sub-region tried to find a concrete do-able alternative and set up the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) motor vehicle agreement. But even for something as simple as this, it looks like India’s suspicions about vehicles from Bangladesh and Nepal having unhindered passage through its territory, and Bhutan’s reservations about being swamped by Indian trucks has blocked progress.Despite all the effort being put into cross-border regionalism, however, it is in bilateral economic links that there has been most progress. Even on something as logical as a China-Nepal-India trans-Himalayan railroad, the agreements so far are separately between India and Nepal, and Nepal and China.President Xi Jiping has said he wants a quadrilateral deal with India, Nepal and Bangladesh on connectivity, but New Delhi is not ready to play ball. The energy grid agreed to in Kathmandu will be a test to see if BIMSTEC is really different from SAARC.Despite Nepal’s poor image, being a member of any regional or sub-regional grouping, however moribund, is an advantage. There is strength in numbers where there are two hefty neighbours right next door.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/On-the-way-up/Different-regionalisms-SAARC,987" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Different regionalisms</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/saarc-timeline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAARC timeline</a>, Ayesha Shakya<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>The page 1 story in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/415" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #415</a> (29 August–4 September, 2018) showed how little things have changed in the geopolitics of the region in the past decade. As Kathmandu hosts the BIMSTEC Summit this week, it is a good time to re-read Mallika Aryal’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15161#.W4zX3s4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatch from New Delhi ten years ago</a>:By ignoring Indian concerns and accepting Beijing’s invitation to the Olympics closing ceremony last week, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal set alarm bells ringing here. Indian politicians and foreign policy bureaucrats tried to play down Dahal’s ‘China card’, but the military-intelligence establishment, the opposition BJP and some hawkish commentators have voiced concerns about China’s growing influence in India’s neighborhood.‘Prachanda’s Beijing sojourn merely confirms the subcontinent’s shifting balance of power in China’s favour,’ wrote the Indian Express in an editorial on Tuesday, a view echoed by other influential commentators here. ‘Prachanda’s departure from Nepal’s natural logic for a strong relationship with India can only be understood in the context of Beijing’s new powerplay in South Asia.’<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369048e9c7e80680e037d2cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="509" height="813">

Sorry state

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

xi-jiping