Nepalis keenly waiting for a resolution of the Indian blockade were disappointed when post-festival talks billed as ‘decisive’ ended inconclusively on Wednesday. The possibility of a consensus looks even slimmer as all sides try to exploit the crisis for political advantage.
UCPN (M) Chair and chief negotiator Pushpa Kamal Dahal proposed an all-party panel to redraw federal boundaries in return for suspending the agitation in the Tarai. The Madhesi parties could have had more in the realignment of federal provinces had they agreed to this. But they rejected Dahal's proposal outright, saying they did not trust the government.
"Such panels are meant for immediate relief from the crisis, not for a long-term solution," said Sadbhavana Party leader Manish Suman. "So we are not ready to take the bait this time."
The Madhesi Front has instead asked Dahal to come up with a concrete proposal on its demand for two provinces in the Tarai. The Madhesi leaders know that the ruling coalition, which includes anti-federalists Kamal Thapa and Chitra Bahadur KC, will be divided over this. This could put pressure on the UML which leads the coalition.
Even Dahal seems to be waiting for the right moment to unseat Prime Minister KP Oli and lead a new coalition government with the NC and Madhesi parties. He is cosying up to the Madhesis and also India by projecting himself as more accommodative to their demands.
Oli is now trapped. He is now convinced India will not lift the blockade as long as he is in power. He is playing the nationalist card, but that will be weakened as the economic crisis caused by the blockade deepens. He has even antagonised the NC by holding up amendment proposals registered by his predecessor, Sushil Koirala.
With all sides engaged in political brinkmanship, the country is facing a humanitarian crisis and economic meltdown.