The politics over CA extension is based on the assumption that the Maoists are bluffing. They need the CA the most for they lose a legitimate source of strength if it is dissolved. At the last minute, they will - irrespective of whether Madhav Kumar Nepal resigns - back the amendment to extend the CA by a year. They may lose face, but they live to fight another day.

This could well be true. The Maoists allow the CA to end, and they will be blamed for being 'anti-peace and anti-constitution'. They will have to be on the streets even as others continue to enjoy power, despite the diminished legitimacy of each state institution. So the party will be under immense pressure not to play 'spoiler'. And the risk of a confrontation - where the objective conditions do not favour the Maoists - would rise up.

In the politburo meeting early this week, there was disappointment at the failure of the strike and questioning of the leadership's judgment. But another refrain was how the present process was failing to deliver the 'change' the Maoists had hoped for and that it was time to consider fresh ideas.

The dogmatists tried to capitalise on the disillusionment and said that the principal contradiction was no longer with the 'remnants of feudalism', but with 'expansionists and its brokers'. Mohan Baidhya (Kiran) and Netra Bikram Chand (Biplab) proposed a new united front with 'nationalists' (read royalists and conservatives) against India. This would have been a total reversal of the party line since 2005, and was rejected. The 'democratic republic' line prevailed, but it was concluded that unconditional support to the extension would be meaningless, for the fundamental political disagreements would remain. The final decision will now be taken by the central committee that meets from Friday.

But the focus on the Maoists has neglected other layers around the politics of extension.

The ultra-left (and the ultra-right) have a shared interest in seeing the end of the CA with sections of the Indian establishment. Delhi feels that the Maoists are the most vulnerable at the moment, and they should be allowed an extension only if they sign on the dotted line and deliver on commitments. But Indian sources also add they will go along with the general mood of the domestic factors.

Echoes of this, predictably, can be found in the decision of the NC central committee-parliamentary party meeting which made extension conditional on Maoists delivering on issues in the package deal. But leaders like parliamentary party chief Ram Chandra Poudel, who fancies himself as the next PM, supported an unconditional extension. Incumbent NC ministers also went along with the cabinet decision to extend the CA by a year.

For once, Madhav Nepal's role will be crucial. His role over the past year has been to sit tight, and ensure there is no broad agreement between parties, for he would then lose his job. Some of his aides suggest that Nepal does not want to be in the saddle so he is held responsible for the dissolution of the CA, and is contemplating resigning on May 28 if there is no deal by then. But his conscience is flexible and the temptation to enjoy Baluwatar for some more time could overwhelm it.

One of the most astute observers of Nepali politics has likened all this to Chakravyuha - a battle formation in the Mahabharata designed by the Kaurava commander, Drona. The Pandava warrior Arjun's son, Abhimanyu, knew how to break into the ring but not how to leave it. He died while trapped inside.

By locking themselves into difficult positions, Nepali politicians have entered the battle. They hope to have left enough manoeuvering space to get out. We will soon find out if they have succeeded.

Correction: In the second paragraph of this article, the hard copy read "And the risk of a confrontation that will favour the Maoists rises." This should in fact read "And the risk of a confrontation - where the objective conditions do not favour the Maoists - would rise up."

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