Even after democracy in 1990, the preoccupation of those who clawed their way to Singha Darbar remained the same. They pushed the country into a bloody conflict and six years ago let the Madhes burn.
As the country prepares for another election, angst is growing again in the plains. Lack of jobs, crumbling infrastructure, and a sense of being let down by their own leaders have left the region in a state of dangerous hopelessness.
The dissolution of the Constituent Assembly last May dashed Madhesi hopes for autonomy and self-rule, giving impetus to extreme voices calling for a violent uprising against Kathmandu. Extremists and political actors who have nothing to lose have found a fertile breeding ground in this state of statelessness and discontent. However, as with most cases of political extremism, it is not about the welfare of the disenfranchised but exploiting their discontent to gain power.
There are three forces in the Tarai who are against elections. The MJF-Nepal led by Upendra Yadav says it will take part in polls, but has some populist demands to appease the plains constituency. Through the ongoing negotiations with the High Level Political Committee, Yadav is just trying to consolidate his position and will join the election process.
Two weeks ago, Jaya Krishna Goit of the Tarai Liberation Front issued a statement attacking the current breed of Madhesi leaders for betraying the ‘One Madhes’ agenda. But he did not say anything against elections. Most armed groups operating on both sides of the border are not political in nature and chances are that they will be up for hire as campaign muscle. Last week’s attack on MJF-N’s Mahottari leader is a case in point. Some of these groups were hounded by the state during the Madhav Nepal government and feel betrayed by top Madhesi leaders who they believe failed to protect them at the time.
