Planning for the year 2100

I used to write a weekly column for Nepali Times under the nom du plume Arthabeed, and in issue #471 on 9 October 2009 the commentary was titled ‘Unleashing Nepal’.

It was about the country’s economic potential and peace dividend, and I wrote: ‘The list is endless and if we can make just a few of these ideas really happen, Nepal and Nepalis will surely be better off.’

It was not a great time to be an optimist, but there was a desperate need to see some light at the end of the tunnel. A glance at the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) hosted at Institute for Conflict Management for 2009 makes one wonder how we survived those difficult times.

The situation was actually much worse than what it is today: the Constitution drafting process was stuck, there was never-ending political wrangling, the Maoist army was not yet integrated, and there were thousands of ex-guerrillas and guns around.

Then Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to fire the Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal in May 2009, and had to quit for his pains. Even the New York Times wrote: ‘Nepal’s Premier Resigns After Power Struggle Over Army Chief’.

Rumour mills were working overtime like they do now, though social media platforms were not as prolific as they are today. It was text messages, emails and phone calls along with lurid tabloid headlines.

The rumours around coups never ended, and there were rumours about rumours. One such report read ‘Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel said the rumour about a coup was spread by Maoists to demoralise Nepalese Army’. Poudel is now Nepal’s president.

When in May 2010, the Maoist announced they would encircle Kathmandu and declared a five day strike, it was a civil society that stood up against the bullying. There was fear that the Constituent Assembly would be dismantled.

Behind every action, everyone saw a foreign hand. In another one of my columns, I wondered then if the food we are eating also was fed by some foreign hand.

It was during such anxious times that my book Unleashing Nepal came out. Sixteen years later, in similarly anxious times, my third book Nepal 2043: Road to Prosperity is being published this week.

What has changed in these 16 years? Nepal’s economy had grown from $12 billion in 2009 to $44 billion in 2025. Remittances have crossed $11 billion and Nepalis reside in over 180 countries around the world.

The 2015 Constitution installed federalism with the concept of devolving power to the 25 million people living outside Kathmandu Valley. The size of banking and stock market has grown, so has the size of the private sector.

Nepal is sitting on $20 billion in foreign exchange reserves — enough to cover 18 months of imports. Domestic tourism makes up 60% of earnings in the hospitality sector, with social functions, internal air and road travel, domestic pilgrims dominating earnings especially outside Kathmandu Valley.

Nepal’s entrepreneurship has proliferated as online platforms help people sell, logistics companies transport goods and digital payment platforms ensure easy financial transactions. There is close to 100% electrification and internet penetration has accelerated the growth of micro, small and medium enterprises, transforming lives and livelihoods.

Just as in 2009, I also take a long-term view now as Nepal can aim to graduate to a high-income country in 2043. That is the year that in the Bikram Sambat calendar we mark 2100 — the beginning of a new Nepali century.

CORRUPTION CARTELS

On a long-distance trek there are many difficulties, some foreseen, others unforeseen that have to be overcome. One of the biggest impediments to Nepal’s economic growth have been corruption and cartels.

Last month’s youth movement was propelled by an anti-corruption agenda, and the sacrifices of so many lives will not be in vain as cronies and cartels are curtailed. Nepal was embarking on the next set of reforms, and what could be better than having the person who led the High-level Commission on Reforms, Rameshore Khanal becoming the interim Finance Minister.

No political party new or old can avoid initiating economic reforms in their election manifesto for the March elections which will be fought on issues that meet the expectations of young Nepalis — jobs, investment and global mobility.

There will be challenges. Like in 2009, the failed state narrative will continue to appear with parachute consultants landing and supporting a section of Nepali society that has benefited from selling cynicism.

People who have taken politics as a profession and usurped power and money will fight tooth and nail to go their old ways, and the country with them. There will be confrontation.

Nepal also needs to send a message to the world that it is rounding up the criminals who escaped from prisons and tracking down the weapons that were looted. Businesses and citizens need to feel safe.

Finally, we have to remind ourselves that we cannot change our geographical location and the current world order has brought our neighbours closer to each other.

Neither China nor India will like to see prolonged instability in Nepal and spilling over. And Nepal has to be ready to hitch its wagon to those two engines of global growth.

Nepalis are very good at taking super-long term views like a belief in the after life and undertake rituals to ensure a better incarnation next time. Perhaps we need to have a long term view about improving our current lives in our own lifetimes.

There are things to fix in the short-term, of course, but we have to plan for the future decades till 2100 Bikram Sambat.

Sujeev Shakya wrote the column Economic Sense in Nepali Times from 2001-2011 under the pseudonym Arthabeed. His book, 2043: Road to Prosperity was being released by Penguin last week.