As stock markets hit <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-four-u-s-stock-market-indexes-just-closed-at-record-highs-heres-what-history-says-happens-next-cd0385a2" target="_blank">record highs</a>, rising financial fragility is setting off alarm bells across the United States and Europe. The International Monetary Fund has recently <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/10/14/global-financial-stability-report-october-2025" target="_blank">echoed</a> these concerns, stoking fears of a looming crisis.
The warning signs are everywhere – and they are disturbingly familiar. Asset prices are climbing well beyond what can be justified by underlying fundamentals, while non-bank financial intermediaries now play a similar role to that of “shadow banks” in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. At the same time, the rise of stablecoins has pulled regulated banks into the opaque world of cryptocurrencies, and vast sums of speculative capital are flooding into AI stocks, driven more by hype than by proven returns.
These trends bear the unmistakable marks of a financial bubble entering its most precarious stage, when even minor shifts in investor sentiment can trigger a sharp correction. The <a href="https://www.networkideas.org/2025/10/29/the-fear-haunting-global-finance/" target="_blank">recent collapse</a> of US auto parts supplier First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor, both heavily leveraged and closely linked to non-bank financial institutions, may be early indications of structural vulnerabilities that are only just coming into view.
Behind this growing fragility lies the rapid expansion of private financial institutions over the past decade. According to the Financial Stability Board, these entities – which raise funds from retail investors and leverage their positions through aggressive borrowing – now account for <a href="https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P181124-2.pdf" target="_blank">nearly half</a> of the world’s total financial assets. Their appetite for risk has helped drive up asset prices, even amid trade uncertainties and policy volatility. And the dismantling of already-weak financial regulations under US President Donald Trump has only compounded the threat.
Taken together, these forces could set in motion the manic cycle <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/" target="_blank">famously described</a> by the economic historian Charles Kindleberger. The first stage, “euphoria,” is dominated by optimism and excess. It is inevitably followed by a period of “stringency” as defaults rise and credit tightens, before giving way to “revulsion,” when fear grips financial markets and even solvent borrowers struggle to find financing. Whether this sequence culminates in full-blown panic and collapse depends largely on how governments respond. But even without a crash, the consequences can be severe.
If history is any guide, the question is when – not if – another major financial meltdown will occur. For most of the world’s population, however, the more pressing concern is how a crisis that originates in the US and Europe will affect their own countries.
The precedents are hardly reassuring: both the 2008 crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic showed that turmoil in the US and other wealthy economies can devastate poorer countries with limited fiscal space and little protection against external shocks. When crises spread beyond financial markets, the damage is swift and far-reaching. Investment dries up, growth falters, and unemployment rises, triggering a chain reaction that reduces export demand and curtails foreign-exchange inflows from tourism and remittances, spreading the pain worldwide.
Entrenched currency hierarchies exacerbate the problem. The dominance of the dollar, for example, ensures that in times of heightened uncertainty, private capital flows back to the US, causing sharp depreciations and banking crises in lower-income countries. Fears of capital flight further impede governments’ ability to pursue countercyclical macroeconomic policies, making an already-difficult adjustment even harder.
The fallout could be especially severe for debt-distressed countries, many of which built their growth strategies around exports to advanced economies. That model has since been undermined by Trump’s protectionist policies, leaving indebted countries dangerously exposed to a confluence of economic, geopolitical, and climate shocks that threaten to turn the next global financial crisis into a truly catastrophic event.
Developing countries must recognise these risks and take urgent steps to strengthen their economic resilience. The top priority should be to diversify trade relationships. Confronted with the Trump administration’s erratic and often unreasonable demands, some have already begun reducing dependence on the US. This process, though necessary, will not be painless.
To bolster their financial resilience, developing countries need to limit their exposure to volatile capital flows by adopting effective capital-management tools and strengthening financial oversight, not merely through prudential regulations but by curbing speculative and opaque activities. Such safeguards must be in place before the next crisis erupts. In the medium term, reducing dependence on external debt is essential, as is preventing destabilising outflows by redefining the terms under which foreign investors operate.
Admittedly, the Trump administration’s efforts to steer its trading partners in the opposite direction – toward loosening regulation, particularly of cryptocurrencies – make this task exceedingly difficult. But only by resisting such pressures can developing countries avoid being swept into another crisis not of their making. © Project Syndicate
Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is a member of the Club of Rome’s Transformational Economics Commission and Co-Chair of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.

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Can the developing world weather the next financial crisis?

The September protests and worry about what is in store for Nepal in 2026 have added more uncertainty to a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-use-its-money-better">struggling economy</a>. Real estate transactions are stagnant, industries are operating below capacity because of declining domestic demand, the construction sector is slack, and investors are in wait-and-watch mode. In contrast, total bank deposits increased by Rs124 billion in the month before mid-October to Rs7.4 trillion. Official remittance inflows hit a record $13 billion in the past year. Nepal’s banks are flush with cash, with nowhere to put it. &nbsp; “The economy has flatlined. Non-performing assets are up, and real estate is at a standstill,” said Ashoke SJB Rana, CEO of Himalayan Bank.“There is excess liquidity in the market, with not many places to invest.” The main reason seems to be that both <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/relocate-reallocate-recover">domestic and foreign investors were spooked</a> by the targeted violence of 9 September, and are so worried about the runup to elections in March that they are holding on to their wallets. Not just businesses, the political uncertainty is keeping individuals &nbsp;from making big financial decisions.&nbsp; Sujeev Shakya, author of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/retrofitting-nepal-for-future-shocks">newly-released book Nepal 2043</a>, notes that the current doldrum is due to Nepalis playing it safe with their money. &nbsp; “People are holding on to their assets, and keeping their cash,” he says. “They are not investing in real estate, and avoiding buying gold because it is so volatile.”&nbsp; One sector in which banks have a lot of exposure is hydroelectricity, but even here recent floods have shown that this investment is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/global-warning-bell-in-belem">increasingly at risk from climate breakdown</a>.&nbsp; Nabil Bank, with its focus on sustainable banking, for instance, has financed 56 hydropower projects with an installed capacity of 3,000MW.&nbsp; Says Nabil CEO Manoj Kumar Gyawali: “We cannot ignore unpredictable rainfall, increased glacier melt, more frequent glacier lake outburst floods, and landslides. These risks mean that while hydropower is essential, Nepal must diversify its energy mix." &nbsp;&nbsp; An open secret in the banking sector is that much of the liquidity is supected laundered money. Banks also have close ownership links with big businesses, and this means that even with a slow economy, banks lend to themselves or to each other to keep transaction volumes up.&nbsp; This is one reason for a high default rate. In the first three months of this fiscal year, 4.86% of bank loans were non-performing, meaning one out of about every 20 borrowers had defaulted. A year ago, this figure was 4.04%. Banks are therefore reluctant to lend, dampening the overall investment climate. &nbsp; Ironically, the high default rate is keeping mainstream newspapers in Nepal afloat at a time when the media business is also in crisis. Even as they suffer from a massive drop in advertising revenue, most daily newspapers often add pages to fit notices to borrowers about repayment, or announcements of bank auctions of collateral property. “While banks may be making a much smaller percentage of income compared to a few decades ago, they are still making a profit,” notes Shakya. “And so they are actually quite happy to be in this low-risk situation. Banks are conservative organisations after all.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251128041136_b33dd18d7ce221e273bd18d8a5c4ba4c9196f762b95b87fd24c60df6c2426065.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251128041136_b33dd18d7ce221e273bd18d8a5c4ba4c9196f762b95b87fd24c60df6c2426065" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1022" loading="lazy" alt="Banks"> <figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI / NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Among the most striking videos of the September protests that was shared globally by tens of millions of people was the Hilton and Hyatt hotels and the Ncell building burning. That recognisable international brands were targeted did not just cause huge losses to owners, but also damaged Nepal’s overall investment climate. Looting Bhat-Bhateni and homes of businessmen also sent a negative message, spurring capital flight.&nbsp; “That was very bad optics for potential investors, you simply worry about the security of your investment when you see things like that,” says Himalayan Bank CEO Ashoke SJB Rana.&nbsp; Nepal will graduate to Middle Income Country status next year, and donors are set to move from aid to private investment. While this could reduce misuse of money, it could dry up grants and soft loans to the health and education sectors.&nbsp; But the harm may go deeper than just the aftermath of the September events. The recent<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/double-trouble-with-taxes"> double taxation issue</a> involving the Dolma Impact Fund, and an earlier controversy over Ncell’s capital gains tax have also put Nepal’s business climate in negative spotlight internationally.&nbsp; The banking sector is firmly on the side of investors. Says Ashoke Rana at Himalayan Bank: “This is a tax regime, it is absurd to order the payment of these taxes retrospectively. When investors see that the rules of the game can change arbitrarily, they won’t really want to put their money here. ” &nbsp; One of the positive changes in the ways Nepalis are using money is digital transactions through QR codes and mobile banking. With smartphones making up 70% of all mobile phones, QR transactions are easy and have become a part of daily life. ONLINE BANKING&nbsp; Most businesses and ride shares have this feature on board, and people do not need to carry a lot of cash or multiple bank cards. But as digital payments become the norm, the days of free transactions may be coming to an end.&nbsp; “Right now these transactions are free for the most part. This is a subsidy by the banks, because of course, it does cost something to make sure the payments go through,” says Rana at Himalayan Bank. “However, as income decreases, banks may have to look for ways to make money, so they may charge small percentages on each QR transaction.”&nbsp; Rapid digitisation has changed not only how customers use money, but also how banks think about their offices. Himalayan Bank’s new Thamel branch, for example, has cancelled plans to redesign the office for 20 tellers.&nbsp; “We realised that people were able to do so much of what they wanted digitally that we plan to have only four tellers,” says Rana.&nbsp; But cutting down on facilities and staff has not always made for a better customer experience at some bank branches.&nbsp; Economist Sujeev Shakya conducts ghost customer experience checks for banks which involves decoys entering banks to evaluate what it is like for somebody to set up a bank account.&nbsp; The stealth missions found that standards of service have regressed, with banks having a working environment reminiscent of government offices.&nbsp; Shakya points out that the general experience of going to the bank should be much better. “Sometimes it’s a knowledge issue -- banks may try to ask for non-disclosure contracts even when they don’t know why they want them,” he says.&nbsp; Despite digitisation, many banks still require paper-based forms and documents. Bankers and customers alike note that it feels archaic, almost absurd, to have to carry multiple copies of documents, sometimes only in Nepali lokta paper, across several family members and fill out what seems to be the same form over and over even though digital files exist. That could soon be changing as well. As more and more Nepalis adopt the National ID, banks have adopted pilot programs that use it to create bank accounts, replacing the myriad documents that customers had to previously present to officials, making all banking transactions more efficient and less of a hassle for the customer.&nbsp; DIGITAL SECURITY As Nepalis move their cash online, digital infrastructure needs to become more secure as well.&nbsp; Bankers spend quite a lot to make sure necessary digital security infrastructure is in place, but some banks could be using pirated software which are not trustworthy.&nbsp; There has to be better regulatory oversight to prevent phishing and fraud as online payments and digital banking spread across Nepal.&nbsp; Banks must also be innovative and ambitious. Says Shakya: “Nowhere else in South Asia are bank loans such a high ratio of the nation’s GDP. &nbsp;This actually points to a well-developed financial system and we have to take advantage of it."&nbsp; Shakya also notes that many bank executives in foreign countries, like Myanmar are actually Nepali, and that banks from Nepal could use their staff and know-how to partner with or acquire banks overseas.&nbsp; While these innovations are all welcome, it is unclear how Nepal's banking sector can jumpstart economic activity in the country. Nepal’s political future looks uncertain and stability is not a guarantee.&nbsp; In the face of continuing progress in hydro electricity and the IT sector seems to be the way forward to stimulate the economy.&nbsp; The GenZ movement was a wakeup call also to financial institutions and the need for greater transparency. Nabil Bank CEO Manoj Kumar Gyawali says the September protests sent a clear message that young Nepalis want an end to corruption, good governance, and real opportunities at home: "The banking sector has a &nbsp;responsibility to direct more lending toward the real economy, sectors that create jobs, build productivity, and strengthen long-term growth," he says.&nbsp; Despite a subdued investment climate, Gyawali is optimistic. "I do see early signs of improvement. Lower interest rates are beginning to restore public and business confidence. Rising remittances provide a safety net and fresh investment capacity for households," he says. "If government capital expenditure continues to improve, it will boost private sector activity."&nbsp;

Vishad Raj Onta

Cash rich, but poor

I used to write a weekly column for Nepali Times under the nom du plume Arthabeed, and in issue <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/search?q=artha+beed+471" target="_blank">#471 on 9 October</a> 2009 the commentary was titled ‘Unleashing Nepal’.&nbsp;
It was about the country’s economic potential and peace dividend, and I wrote: ‘The list is endless and if we can make just a few of these ideas really happen, Nepal and Nepalis will surely be better off.’
It was not a great time to be an optimist, but there was a desperate need to see some light at the end of the tunnel. A glance at the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) hosted at Institute for Conflict Management for 2009 makes one wonder how we survived those difficult times.&nbsp;
The situation was actually much worse than what it is today: the Constitution drafting process was stuck, there was never-ending political wrangling, the Maoist army was not yet integrated, and there were thousands of ex-guerrillas and guns around.&nbsp;
Then Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15944" target="_blank">fire the Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal</a> in May 2009, and had to quit for his pains. Even the New York Times wrote: ‘Nepal’s Premier Resigns After Power Struggle Over Army Chief’.&nbsp;
Rumour mills were working overtime like they do now, though social media platforms were not as prolific as they are today. It was text messages, emails and phone calls along with lurid tabloid headlines.&nbsp;
The rumours around coups never ended, and there were rumours about rumours. One such report read ‘Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel said the rumour about a coup was spread by Maoists to demoralise Nepalese Army’. Poudel is now Nepal’s president.
When in May 2010, the Maoist announced they would encircle Kathmandu and declared a five day strike, it was a civil society that stood up against the bullying. There was fear that the Constituent Assembly would be dismantled.&nbsp;
Behind every action, everyone saw a foreign hand. In another one of my columns, I wondered then if the food we are eating also was fed by some foreign hand.&nbsp;
It was during such anxious times that my book Unleashing Nepal came out. Sixteen years later, in similarly anxious times, my third book Nepal 2043: Road to Prosperity is being published this week.&nbsp;
What has changed in these 16 years? Nepal’s economy had grown from $12 billion in 2009 to $44 billion in 2025. Remittances have crossed $11 billion and Nepalis reside in over 180 countries around the world.&nbsp;
The 2015 Constitution installed federalism with the concept of devolving power to the 25 million people living outside Kathmandu Valley. The size of banking and stock market has grown, so has the size of the private sector.
Nepal is sitting on $20 billion in foreign exchange reserves — enough to cover 18 months of imports. Domestic tourism makes up 60% of earnings in the hospitality sector, with social functions, internal air and road travel, domestic pilgrims dominating earnings especially outside Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
Nepal’s entrepreneurship has proliferated as online platforms help people sell, logistics companies transport goods and digital payment platforms ensure easy financial transactions. There is close to 100% electrification and internet penetration has accelerated the growth of micro, small and medium enterprises, transforming lives and livelihoods.
Just as in 2009, I also take a long-term view now as Nepal can aim to graduate to a high-income country in 2043. That is the year that in the Bikram Sambat calendar we mark 2100 — the beginning of a new Nepali century.&nbsp;
CORRUPTION CARTELS
On a long-distance trek there are many difficulties, some foreseen, others unforeseen that have to be overcome. One of the biggest impediments to Nepal’s economic growth have been corruption and cartels.&nbsp;
Last month’s youth movement was propelled by an anti-corruption agenda, and the sacrifices of so many lives will not be in vain as cronies and cartels are curtailed. Nepal was embarking on the next set of reforms, and what could be better than having the person who led the High-level Commission on Reforms, Rameshore Khanal becoming the interim Finance Minister.&nbsp;
No political party new or old can avoid initiating economic reforms in their election manifesto for the March elections which will be fought on issues that meet the expectations of young Nepalis — jobs, investment and global mobility.
There will be challenges. Like in 2009, the failed state narrative will continue to appear with parachute consultants landing and supporting a section of Nepali society that has benefited from selling cynicism.&nbsp;
People who have taken politics as a profession and usurped power and money will fight tooth and nail to go their old ways, and the country with them. There will be confrontation.&nbsp;
Nepal also needs to send a message to the world that it is rounding up the criminals who escaped from prisons and tracking down the weapons that were looted. Businesses and citizens need to feel safe.&nbsp;
Finally, we have to remind ourselves that we cannot change our geographical location and the current world order has brought our neighbours closer to each other.&nbsp;
Neither China nor India will like to see prolonged instability in Nepal and spilling over. And Nepal has to be ready to hitch its wagon to those two engines of global growth.
Nepalis are very good at taking super-long term views like a belief in the after life and undertake rituals to ensure a better incarnation next time. Perhaps we need to have a long term view about improving our current lives in our own lifetimes.&nbsp;
There are things to fix in the short-term, of course, but we have to plan for the future decades till 2100 Bikram Sambat.
Sujeev Shakya wrote the column Economic Sense in Nepali Times from 2001-2011 under the pseudonym Arthabeed. His book, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/retrofitting-nepal-for-future-shocks">2043: Road to Prosperity</a> was being released by Penguin last week.

Planning for the year 2100

In the very first page of the first chapter of Nepal 2043: The Road to Prosperity are two maps. The first places Nepal right at the epicentre of Asia, and in the second the Kathmandu is at exactly the midpoint between Mumbai and Beijing. With his trademark optimism, author Sujeev Shakya says Nepal is not land-locked but land-linked to three billion people in China and India. We just need those two economic engines to pull us in the same direction. ‘With China and India becoming the two largest economies in the world in the next two decades … Nepal is the most valuable piece of real estate in the world,’ Shakya writes. For one thing, Nepal does not look beyond India and China for tourism — with the right policies it can attract millions of tourists just from those two countries. Nepal is set to graduate from a low- to a middle-income country by 2026 and to a high-income country in 2043 — hence the name of the book. The year 2043 in the Bikram Sambat calendar is also 2100 — a new Nepali century. The book delves into the past, present and future of Nepal and analyses enablers including hydropower, a fundamental transformation of which will drive the 2043 goal. The commoditisation of electricity will be the biggest transformation. Nepal can deploy ‘Cyber Gurkhas’ to attract foreign investors with the management of data centres with climate friendly renewable energy. Access to technology such as precision agriculture, a data-driven approach to farming to improve food production, reduce environmental impact and enhance profitability could be Nepal’s strategy into 2043 and beyond. ‘Earlier, we needed ploughs and strong hands in agriculture. Now, you need a computer and strong fingers,” Shakya writes, citing a neighbour’s son who inspects his crops from drone cameras. A farmer in an Ilam teashop tells the author he asks AI questions in Nepali, and it answers promptly. The biggest enabler of all is Nepal’s young demography with 62% of the population in the active 15-60 age bracket, while 28% are younger than 14. Nepal’s dependency ratio has dropped to the lowest in history with 100 Nepalis having to support 62 dependents. But this demographic dividend window is closing. Nepal’s total fertility rate declined from 2.62% in 1981 to 0.92% in 2021 — below replacement level. We have less than 30 years left to make the best use of the youth, many of whom are currently studying and working abroad. Nepal’s biggest resource, therefore, is its diaspora spread across the world who send home $20 billion a year. Migration is not just a necessity but an aspiration for many Nepalis, and they are an important source of contacts, investment and soft power. This young and educated group has taken advantage of connectivity and digitisation in all arenas of national life. TikTok and Instagram have become e-commerce platforms, or mobile app-riven digital services. Nepal’s software companies exported over $1 billion worth of IT products last year. Next we need a change in the bureaucratic mindset to eliminate paper and manual processes, which would also contribute to reducing corruption. Shakya comes up with many revelations: 81% of Nepalis live in houses they own, much higher than most other South Asian countries which means higher disposable income. Nepal has the highest tax-to-GDP ratio in South Asia. The banking sector is twice the size of Bangladesh despite Nepal having just one-fifth of its population. In 2021, 12.62% of the population had demat accounts in Nepal, while India had only 5.32%. For every five male investors, there are four women in Nepal while it is 10:1 in India. With such figures and prospects, how come Nepal just went through a violent uprising that took the shortest time to topple a democratically-elected government in modern history? One early chapter of 2043 is actually dedicated to how Nepalis have always thrived on chaos. When people faced up to 20 hours of power cuts a day, people worked around the load-shedding schedule, woke up at ungodly hours to cook and stock up on inverters. They did not put up a fight, or even protest. ''Generally, Nepalis are used to taking things lying down, and perhaps this also needs to change,' says Shakya, writing that line before last month’s uprising. ‘On the one hand, some of these issues speak volumes about the average Nepali’s patience and perhaps optimism that things will change in the long run. On the other hand, one is also forced to wonder how much longer they will be able to put up with unfavourable conditions if things don’t change.’ It does seem Nepali had enough with corruption, governance failure and political apathy to the concerns of ordinary people. The final chapter lists the non-negotiables to realise the 2043 Nepal Roadmap: democratic values and freedom of speech, a capitalist welfare state and socio-political transformation to tackle corruption and impunity. The book notes, ‘Countries transitioning to democratic rule experienced a 20% increase in GDP over a 25 year period compared to what they would have achieved under authoritarian regimes. After the end of the Shah rule in 2006, Nepal’s GDP rose from US$10 billion to US$44 billion by 2024.’ The government’s Vision 2030 document projects Nepal’s GDP at US$100 billion, and the Vision 2043 estimates that it will be a US$423 billion economy with a per capita of US$12,100. However, it will need more than optimism and practical action to make these projections real. China and India loom large throughout the book with examples of small city states like Singapore which have taken advantage of their strategic location. Despite the tension between India and China, the two will have to collaborate given the inherent advantages. China has replaced the United States as India’s biggest trading partner. Sujeev Shakya is a great admirer of former Singaporean diplomat and author Kishore Mahbubani, and he has written a blurb for the book. He quotes Mahbubani saying that for the past 2,000 years, apart from the last two hundred, Asian countries have dominated the world, and it is quite natural that the world’s economic centre is returning to Asia. And Nepal is strategically placed to make the most of it because of its location between two of the world’s fastest growing economies. We just have to get our politics right, and have a strategy for equitable growth in the new Nepali century.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251016091052_78b2d1495d59cd492a17693e0e770b65230c7cb749393ac6643f4676b73832ef.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251016091052_78b2d1495d59cd492a17693e0e770b65230c7cb749393ac6643f4676b73832ef" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Sujeev Shakya book details NT"></figure>

Sonia Awale

Retrofitting Nepal for future shocks

Nepal’s public and private sector are clearing the ash and rubble from destroyed institutions to take stock after last week’s nationwide protests that cost at least 72 lives and caused widespread destruction. The most visible destruction was of buildings housing the legislature, executive, and judiciary and hundreds of other government agencies. At least 1,000 vehicles were torched, offices looted. Many of these offices first have to relocate. The Prime Minister’s Office, which was gutted, and interim <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/madam-prime-minister-of-nepal">Prime Minister Sushila Karki</a> have moved into the new Home Ministry Building. Similarly, the completion of the new Parliament Building may have to be expedited for just after elections next year. The Supreme Court is working out of tents before relocating to its new building which is under construction. Arson attacks have also destroyed many hardcopy court records and case files, and these will be impossible to repair. The private sector is also reeling— the Hotel Association of Nepal (HAN) says two dozen hotels mainly in Kathmandu and Pokhara sustained losses worth Rs25 billion in last week’s arson and vandalism. The &nbsp;<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-turmoil-will-hit-tourism">Hilton Hotel was completely gutted</a> and is said to have suffered Rs8 billion in damages, while the Hyatt, Varnabas and others were damaged. The jobs of 2,000 hospitality workers have been directly affected.&nbsp; Of the 28 Bhatbhateni outlets across Nepal, 21 were attacked — at least 12 were completely destroyed by fire while nine were vandalised and looted. At least 5,000 jobs are directly at risk, while tens of thousands of vendors across the country have been affected.&nbsp; ‘Amid rising unemployment and capital flight, Bhat-Bhateni has been providing employment to 22,000 youths, not only employment generation, it also significantly continues to contribute to the local economy,’ the Tamu (Gurung) Educational and Career Advancement Network (TECANET) wrote in a statement this week, urging immediate investigation into the destruction of Bhatbhateni and other public and private institutions.&nbsp; Chaudhary Group and Ncell were also among prominent corporate entities targeted by agitators, as were automobile showrooms in various cities. “The protests last week were a reflection of the loss of trust of citizens towards the Nepali nation-state,” explains economist Pushkar Bajracharya, formerly of the National Planning Commission. “The destruction of institutions and infrastructure has set Nepal back at least 10 years.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250910100916_1dabfef07b909c916aa462b7c0bb62a1db96ebe4f0b52d61f71140edffd429f4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250910100916_1dabfef07b909c916aa462b7c0bb62a1db96ebe4f0b52d61f71140edffd429f4" data-rendition-name="original" width="6677" height="4451" loading="lazy" alt="Raising Nepal from the ashes"> <figcaption>A man carrying a carton of instant noodles walks past a row of electric vehicle showrooms in Thapathali which were torched with the cars inside during the protests.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal’s newly-appointed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-interim-government-faces-first-hiccups">Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal</a> said after his swearing in on Monday that his first order of business was to make an inventory of the scale of destruction. Economists have estimated losses amounting to trillions, and experts have said the damage is greater than the 2015 earthquake.&nbsp; The majority of Nepal’s public institutions, including the Singha Durbar and the Supreme Court, parts of which were burnt to the ground, were not insured despite Nepal's history of conflict and natural disasters.&nbsp; “The events of last week should be a lesson about the need for our public sector to be insured,” says economist Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute (PRI). “We have to now decentralise risk and institutionalise risk diversification not just for the recovery and reconstruction, but for all future infrastructure projects.” The private sector is also taking stock of damage to begin the process of insurance claims, and Nepal’s insurance sector needs to calculate how much insurance and reinsurance can sustain rebuilding efforts. The damage will also reverberate across real estate sector, and has already affected the stock market. The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) is set to resume on Thursday after the share market plummeted 47.52 points last week before trading was suspended. Experts predict further market uncertainty as a more accurate account of the loss and damage is calculated. Insurance claims will then go up, leading to a further slide in share value of these companies. Nepal’s budget will also have to be redistributed to address the most immediate reconstruction needs. Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal will now have to implement what he has long recommended: to allocate budgetary items by priority rather than number of projects. “In order for our rebuilding efforts to be effective, we need to ensure that the budgetary process is redirected in a way that does not fragment the budget towards many projects as has been happening so far, but prioritises important projects,” says Khanal, who has said the emphasis will be in job creation. After being sworn in, the Minister vowed to do away with fragmented projects, directing Ministry officials to reprioritise spending and has formed a three-member task force to identify low-priority projects to redirect spending towards the reconstruction of public institutions. &nbsp; “Economic reallocation, rehabilitation, and recovery through the correct mobilisation of domestic revenue, international resources and the private sector is the way through this crisis,” says Bajracharya. Protestors last week zeroed in on Land Revenue offices, Departments of Survey, and tax offices and this will affect revenue collection across the country. Additionally, Nepal will also have to rebuild many of its institutions from the ground up during a time of decreasing bilateral aid. DEBT BURDEN Nepal is set to achieve LDC graduation in 2026, which means that multilateral aid, grants and loans for reconstruction might not be forthcoming. The additional loans and grants will carry higher interest rates, adding to Nepal’s significant debt burden. While some experts do not see the GenZ revolt having a significant impact on Nepal’s status, others point to the need to rethink LDC graduation altogether. “Nepal was not ready to graduate from LDC status even before this unrest, and in light of the recent upheaval, it is advisable to push it back,” says Bajracharya. “We can mobilise international resources if we can convince partners that we will utilise them properly— Nepal still has significant goodwill among donors.” Nepal’s foreign investment climate was already not friendly due to corruption and red tape, and now it has taken a big hit because of the international media coverage of the attacks on multinationals. This will hurt any government effort at job creation.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250916170920_fe3dfd0f14688c1354a4936640ba7d3088175fbd8605e58178f4401d22ec09bc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250916170920_fe3dfd0f14688c1354a4936640ba7d3088175fbd8605e58178f4401d22ec09bc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="855" loading="lazy" alt="economy post Nepal protests"> <figcaption>Hilton Hotel in Naxal which was set ablaze on 9 September by protesters. Photo: NEPAL PICTURE LIBRARY</figcaption> </figure>  Prospective investors overseas are closely watching unfolding events in Nepal, and while those in the domestic private sector that were targeted have put on outwardly brave faces and optimistic messages of rebuilding, there is worry about investment and business expansion. “The recent unrest will definitely discourage both foreign and domestic parties because a positive investment climate is unimaginable in Nepal at present,” says Bajracharya. “Investors need stability, which we lack. There also has to be assurance about the nation’s security apparatus, which showed problems last week.” Others agree that while Nepal’s investment climate has been badly dented, the nation can turn this opportunity to build better business confidence. “Foreign investors will look at our resilience during the rebuilding process, and our investment environment will be determined not necessarily by this unrest, but by how we respond to the challenges ahead,” says Khanal. “How we manage resources during reconstruction can be an opportunity to build business confidence.” The drop in investment confidence is also expected to add to the push factors driving youth out of the country in search of more stable opportunities. While remittances prop up Nepal’s economy, much of the money sent back home by Nepalis overseas is used to sustain livelihoods and does not contribute to investment and development at the national scale.&nbsp; Latest figures from Nepal Rastra Bank show that Nepal recorded a hard currency inflow of $1.27 billion in the first month of this fiscal year — a 25% increase. Nepal’s foreign current reserves are now at $20 billion. But all that money has to be invested in productive sectors to be meaningful in creating jobs. Experts say Nepal can take its recent unrest as an opportunity for true economic reform, and they cite the example of Rwanda which has risen from its genocidal war with good governance, stability and a strong emphasis on foreign investment. There are silver linings. Rameshore Khanal was the former finance secretary and a principled, no-nonsense economist. Experts as well as the public hope for a new beginning for economic reform. “Infrastructure building and development has always been vote-driven instead of priority-driven in Nepal,” notes Khanal. “Members of the Cabinet now need to be directed by evidence-based data and real experts rather than politics for optimal decision-making.” Corruption in Nepal has increased the cost of development, and the focus of the GenZ revolt was on transparency. The regime change this week could force the interim government to curb graft and spur development.&nbsp; Although most of the focus was on corrupt politicians, there was &nbsp;less prominence givem to the kleptocrats in the bureaucracy. Bribery and graft had become standard operating procedure in the civil service, and one of the factors for rising youth disillusionment.&nbsp; The hope is that this youth revolt will reduce systemic corruption in government and make governance cleaner and more efficient. A well oiled economy would then yield adequate domestic revenue to pay for rebuilding. Pushkar Bajracharya is optimistic: “Recent events have instilled a sense within Nepal’s government and bureaucracy that there will now be retaliation if they stray off course. This should make them responsible and accountable so we can recoup infrastructural, institutional, and economic losses more rapidly.”&nbsp;

Shristi Karki

Relocate, reallocate, recover

Where will Nepal be in 2050? It is only 25 years away. The country’s population will be peaking at 36 million, the poverty rate will drop to near zero. Maternal and child mortality rates will fall further. Nepal will be generating up to 40,000MW of hydro and solar power, more than half of that for export. Upgraded highways will improve connectivity, railways will make transport cheaper. Pokhara and Birganj will only be two hours away from Kathmandu. Nijgad airport could be Nepal’s new aviation hub, reducing Kathmandu’s congestion. Nepal will hitch its wagon to the engines of economic growth in India and China. Investment and job creation will reduce outmigration, Nepal's data centres will be powered with surplus electricity. Remote areas will prosper with high-value tourists. That is if all goes well. But if Nepal’s politics remains dysfunctional with incompetent leadership, then the country will muddle along as it is doing now. Society will be more unequal, public discontent may boil over as politicians resort to faith to hide failures, the exodus abroad of youth will continue. Climate breakdown will exacerbate these crises. Global average temperature will have risen to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (it is 1.1°C now). The remaining Himalayan icecap will shrink by half, glacial lakes will threaten valleys. The hydrology of rivers will change, reducing dry season flow. Severe and prolonged heat waves in the Tarai will force people to migrate back to the mountains. In the final analysis, it all boils down to a political system that is more accountable, and displays more integrity and efficiency. <h2>Mission 2050</h2> · Melamchi Water Supply Project · Pokhrara International Airport · Bhairawa International Airport · Upper Tama Kosi Hydroelectric Project . Kathmandu-Tarai Expressway What do these biggest infrastructure projects in Nepal have in common? All ended up being more expensive than they should, all have been delayed and are not fully operational, two were badly damaged in climate-related disasters that should have been foreseen. The $800 million Melamchi is Nepal’s most expensive infrastructure project to date. It took 30 years to build, but was nearly destroyed by a glacial debris flow in June 2021. The headworks need major repairs. The 456MW Upper Tama Kosi was severely damaged by a rockfall and floods in last September’s floods. It is still not operating at full capacity, and other hydropower plants were damaged in recent glacial floods. Pokhara and Bhairawa airports were supposed to be the new aviation gateways to Nepal to take the pressure off Kathmandu, and become game changers for tourism and pilgrimage. Nearly three years later, both handle domestic flights. Poor and inadequate design, kickbacks on contracts, cost overruns, failure of diplomacy to get India’s nod on air routes, and lack of planning and marketing have made the airports a pair of white elephants. Some of these setbacks can be blamed on natural calamities, but mostly it is political incompetence and greed, lack of accountability and poor implementation. That is no surprise, since these are the hallmarks of doing business in Nepal, often delaying projects, adding to the cost, and even when completed they are already outdated. That is the story of the last 25 years, are the next 25 going to be any different? Not if governance does not improve. “What we really need for the future is vision, idea, and understanding, and then the domestic capacity to implement them,” says infrastructure expert Surya Raj Acharya, who laments the total absence of technical and planning expertise. “None of our national highways meet technical standards, our cities are unplanned. The priority was never on quality. Politicians sold us short-term infrastructure that have now become a barrier to prosperity,” he adds. One silver lining has been private sector involvement in hydropower, and the energy strategy aims to generate 11,769MW by 2030. But hydropower is high-investment, high-risk due to climate breakdown, and ecologically damaging. “Hydropower is a good example of how government incentives and public-private partnership can work wonders, although we now have to take climate change into account,” explains economist Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. She adds, “We now have to identify other key infrastructure areas that also enhance the growth of other sectors.” The National Planning Commission’s periodic plans guide overall social and economic strategy for the country into the coming decade. Nepal’s current five-year plan (2024-2029) has set a target of 7.3% annual economic growth against the current 3.9%, $2,351 per capita income up from $1,456 at present, and poverty reduction to 12%. The plan aims to export nearly half the hydropower generated by 2030, earning the country Rs41 billion annually. But there is no real coordination between line agencies, and bureaucratic lethargy leads to constant delays, says former member of the National Planning Commission (NPC) Min Bahadur Shahi. “Development in Nepal is still very much synonymous with building roads and bridges, and infrastructure is rudimentary,” he says. “Elsewhere in the world, digital infrastructure and governance go hand in hand, we are far behind.” The frustration of a man who served in the National Planning Commission is an indication where the problem lies: in actually executing plans and implementing strategies. “We need to prioritise projects based on our geography, climate, societal needs,” Shahi continues. “We want to push Nijgad airport when we can’t even operate Pokhara and Bhairawa. Have we even studied potential air routes and needs of international carriers?”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250726070744_0547e5a7fd4424b5de8c279cab637ee7ebd9e65f2673b15e6dbd4eb2aa2524f2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250726070744_0547e5a7fd4424b5de8c279cab637ee7ebd9e65f2673b15e6dbd4eb2aa2524f2" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara airport"><figcaption>NO FLY ZONE: Pokhara airport was supposed to be the new aviation gateway to Nepal but nearly three years after its inaguration, it mostly handles domestic flights. Photo: RADHIKA KANDEL </figcaption></figure>  TARGET PRACTICE Export of hydropower, manpower and lately information technology are the mainstays of Nepal’s economy, and will carry the country to its graduation from Least Developed Country status to a developing country in November 2026, and hopefully to middle-income by 2030. Nepal has an installed capacity of about 3,800MW, most of it from hydropower, and increased adoption of electric cars has reduced the import of petroleum products, decreasing the trade deficit with India. Meanwhile, Nepalis abroad sent home $11 billion in remittances last year, and at least $900 million in backend IT exports. But demographer Yogendra B Gurung is not impressed: “Despite the reduction in the poverty rate, and our improving income status, life expectancy, income, even maternal and infant mortality are not on par with countries with similar economic status.” He says relying on remittances is an unsustainable economic model, vulnerable to external factors and remittances are mostly spent on day-to-day needs, and not invested in productive sectors. Remittance is credited with reducing poverty in Nepal which is down to 20.27% from 42% in 1990. Money sent home by workers abroad has allowed families to afford basic healthcare and education, in turn helping to reduce childhood malnutrition and maternal mortality while improving female literacy. But the progress has stalled in recent years, and many doubt Nepal will meet its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets. The National Planning Commission has said Nepal is likely to achieve just 60% of the targets by 2030. Sex ratio at birth, which is 112 boys to 100 girls in Nepal in particular, is worrying, as it is much higher than the biological ratio of 105 to 100. This is much more pronounced in Karnali, Sudurpaschim and Madhes Provinces which suffer from historical neglect. Despite a rise in female literacy, patriarchy is still deeply entrenched and the provinces are behind the rest of the country for gender equality, education, healthcare, nutrition and economic opportunities. “Karnali is resource-rich, especially hydropower and the recent discovery of the methane gas, but inequality is much greater,” says Shahi, who is with the Karnali Integrated Rural Development and Research Centre (KIRDARC). “Federalism in Nepal is only on paper, we need a total structural reform to devolve political power to really bring about change.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250726070744_fd4a218656e1fbf6f13f5f87a47bfe624516c6a0232481b6be77875ae866deb9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250726070744_fd4a218656e1fbf6f13f5f87a47bfe624516c6a0232481b6be77875ae866deb9" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Butwal-Narayangadh "><figcaption>The Daunne section of the Butwal-Narayangadh road notorious for traffic jams and accidents, it has been in never-ending construction for three years. Photo: BISHNU PRASAD GAUDEL / RSS </figcaption></figure>  Despite limited resources, Nepal also suffers from wasteful investment as a result of politically (mis)guided decision-making, instead of people-centric plans and policies, says demographer Gurung. “People are overwhelmingly moving to the cities but our leaders are hell bent on building roads to every village and now there are empty schools in the mountains,” he adds. Nepal needs data-driven planning but its long-term economic vision 2020-44 seems more of a wish-list than realistic goals, including average annual GDP growth of 10.5%, $12,000 per capita income and population under the absolute poverty line at 0. Other goals include raising electricity generation capacity to 40,000MW, access to motor transport to 99%, life expectancy at birth to 80, maternal mortality down to 20% and literacy to 99% and 100% access to the internet, among others. Meanwhile, Nepal is committed to net-zero by 2045 and 100% renewable energy by 2050. “Our planners have no idea what kind of infrastructure we need 20, 30 years down the line to sustain and accelerate growth. We need a big structural change in the political leadership, in technocratic planning, and for policy implementation,” says infrastructure expert Surya Raj Acharya. Meeting such targets would require large investment, and it would be unwise to rely on remittances for the longer run, especially as Nepal’s demographic dividend will diminish as it turns into an aged society by 2065. Reversing out migration requires a favourable investment climate so jobs are created. Good governance marked by accountability and transparency are the basic prerequisite for ease of doing business. But lack of rule of law and illicit funds put Nepal in the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money-laundering watchdog. “Everything comes down to a political will. The established parties must realise that if they don’t perform, they will be replaced by alternatives,” says Kalpana Khanal. “In the meantime, we must engage the youth and find ways to retain them as well as attract the diaspora to invest in Nepal.”

Nepal in 2050

Half of Nepalis think the country, and their families, are doing better than five years ago. Really?&nbsp; The prevailing narrative is that Nepalis have given up on Nepal, are fed up with geriatric serial prime ministers, and are fleeing the country in droves. But the latest <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pulse-of-the-people">Sharecast Initiative poll</a> found that half the respondents felt their lives had improved, and the country was doing mostly okay. But it has become unpopular in Nepal to say that things are not so bad, and analysts who cited the survey were mercilessly trolled on social media for being ‘hope-mongers’. “There is a strong narrative that Nepali society is in a deep state of depression and most of us want to make it self-fulfilling,” says Rameshwar Bohora, editor at the digital portal Ukaalo which got much hate mail after publishing the survey findings. “What I saw in the survey result was not despair but anger and dissatisfaction at politicians, which means there is still hope.” To be sure, the poll also registered mass discontent with a dysfunctional government, its non-performance and corruption. Respondents had a long list of complaints that included unemployment, poverty, poor service delivery, inflation, etc. The survey indicated that their ultimate outlet was foreign employment.&nbsp; “The fact that people are dissatisfied with politics and criticise politicians means they still have hope and expectation, democratic politics is also the only way to improve things,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari. “People vent out their frustration to build public pressure so leaders and institutions will correct their behaviour and perform. This is how a healthy democracy works, and if we reject public opinion and treat it negatively, then it is our weakness.” Comparing previous nationwide public opinion surveys conducted over the past 20 years by Himalmedia (the publisher of Nepali Times) reveals an interesting pattern. The polls in 2013 and 2019 had similar questions: ‘Compared to a few years ago, what is the situation of the country?’ and ‘What direction is the country headed?’&nbsp; Tracking the trend, it is evident that Nepalis are becoming gradually more optimistic. One has to remember that by 2013, the post-conflict euphoria had evaporated during the fragile peace process and the Constituent Assembly was deadlocked over demands for ethnic federalism.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1309" height="731" loading="lazy" alt="Hope-mongering NT"> </figure>  Today, Nepalis are still disgusted with their rulers but on the whole feel that they can still change things through elections. Their sense of wellbeing could also be affected by remittance inflows, since nearly half of all households have at least one family member who is working abroad or is a returnee. So, is the glass half-full or half-empty? Both. The truth of the matter is that most Nepalis are angry, but not angry enough to give up hope that things will take a better turn. In fact, anger is good: it can force change if enough people vote out tried, tested, and failed incumbents in 2027. Only then can a new crop of younger leaders start to address the mountain of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">problems that have been left unaddressed</a> for so long: poverty, social injustice, political instability, environmental crises, discrimination, inequality, exclusion, inadequate healthcare and quality education.&nbsp; The public has found some respite in the fact that service delivery and governance at the local level have improved, as they share in the survey. Local elections were held for the first time in 20 years in 2017 after Nepal adopted federalism, and it has taken time for accountability to trickle down to the grassroots. But more importantly, the current governance system allows citizens to vote out the leaders that do not perform and replace them with alternatives as they did with Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah and RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane in 2017.&nbsp; In fact, the poll results could be the Nepali people’s way of telling the leaders of the three main parties: ‘Just you wait.’&nbsp; “Democracy is not all roses, but it also has a system to naturally filter out bad components which is especially important today when personality politics has taken over,” says Adhikari, adding that the trajectory of Nepal’s democracy has been progressive compared to other countries in the region. She adds: “Yes, our expectations haven’t been met, development and governance haven’t kept pace, we haven’t realised our true potential yet. But, considering everything, things could be much worse.” &nbsp;

‘Hope-mongering’

If there is one thing that has been consistently true for the Nepali public, it is that despite war, corruption and governance failure, they are inherent optimists. They see the good even in politicians and bureaucrats who do not deserve it.
Ever since <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/himal-media-public-opinion-survey-2015-outcome#google_vignette">Himalmedia</a> (the publisher of Nepali Times) started conducting public opinion surveys in 2004, respondents have shown dissatisfaction with Nepal’s rulers, a majority voting ‘None of the Above’ when asked for their party preference. Yet, in annual polls after that, they have always been hopeful about the future.
It still seems to be the case. The results of the latest public opinion poll by Sharecast Initiative show that most Nepalis are fed up with the chronic poor performance of &nbsp;established political parties, but they feel the system still gives them the option of finding alternative leaders. In other words, Nepalis are angry but not angry enough to take to the streets. &nbsp;
That should explain the apparent contradiction in their responses. Asked about the living standard of their families and the direction the country is headed, half the respondents said there had been positive improvement in their lives, but about the same number said they were disillusioned with politics and politicians.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Has your life and that of your family improved compared to five years ago (in %)?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Cd2eg" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Cd2eg/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="385" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
The public’s message to the old parties is clear: perk up, or we will vote for alternative leaders like Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah or Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP. The country is ruled by a coalition of the two largest parties in Parliament, but there are no signs that they understand, or care, about the public mood.&nbsp;
The Sharecast survey was conducted among 3,000 households across 52 districts in seven provinces between 1 December 2024 to 11 January 2025. In it, more than half the respondents said that their lives and that of their families had improved in the past five years. Another 16.2% said it was worse or much worse, and for 26.70% things remained the same.
Asked about the situation of the country, again half the respondents said it had improved, citing infrastructure development as the main reason. But 24.20% said it was the same, and another 24% said it was worse. They went on to list unemployment, poverty, lack of road access or maintenance, corruption, inflation, lack of quality education and political instability as their main concerns.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How is the state of the country compared to the last five years (in %)?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gjjLn" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gjjLn/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="440" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="What should the government prioritize? " aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-swcOX" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/swcOX/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="549" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
 
A new global study has found that Nepal ranks fourth in the list of countries with remittance making up the highest share of GDP. This is unsustainable but remittances are propping up not just the national economy, but also individual households. Nearly 1 million Nepalis left the country for work or study in the past year, and about 40% of young Nepali men are not in Nepal.&nbsp;
This could explain the seeming paradox between respondents saying their lives have improved, but that they are not satisfied with the political leadership. Indeed, over 70% of the poll respondents said foreign employment provided the best future. &nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Is Nepal is moving politically in the right direction (in %)?" aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-zsvK8" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zsvK8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="385" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
More than half the respondents felt that Nepal’s economy was in bad shape, while 24.2% thought that it was ‘very good’. Another 16.5% rated the situation as average. And since the economy is intrinsically linked to politics, a majority of respondents (68%) felt that Nepal’s politics is headed in the wrong direction. But most respondents (71%) seemed happy with the way the local government was performing, saying they received timely services at the local level.
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Respondents were also asked to pinpoint why Nepal’s leaders kept being elected over and over again. They mostly blamed ‘vote buying’ (52.10%), and 24.10% said because voters were satisfied with a candidate’s performance, with 21.80% saying voting patterns were determined by party loyalty.&nbsp;
With the government rocked by high-profile scandals exposed by the media, the Nepalis public seemed to be fed up with corruption in everyday life -- 80% of respondents said corruption was rampant, and only 0.70% said there was no corruption at all. Another 15% also admitted they had bribed government officials in the past year.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How widespread is corruption in Nepal?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Q0SpE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q0SpE/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="425" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Have you had to bribe government official in the past year?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-lDV9s" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lDV9s/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="462" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
When <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-opinion-on-leaders-federalism-secularism,2508">Himalmedia conducted its 2015 annual nationwide public opinion poll</a> just before the promulgation of the new Constitution, respondents were asked if Nepal should be a Hindu state. Slightly more than half wanted Nepal to be secular.
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Interestingly, ten years later, the country is still almost equally divided between secularism and Hindu state – despite the popular narrative that if there was a referendum the country restoring the Hindu state would win overwhelmingly. Himalmedia polls after the abolition of the monarchy showed support for a return of kingship in the single digits, and although Sharecast did not have a question about it in the current poll, one can assume that support for the monarchy may have seen a slight increase as a reaction to the perceived incompetence of the established parties.&nbsp;
For the past few years, Nepal has been ruled by coalitions, often with alliances between parties with diametrically opposing ideologies even if they do not stick to it. A majority of respondents in the survey (74%) were against electoral alliances.&nbsp;
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&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Why do the same people keep getting elected?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-Oy2Hf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oy2Hf/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="459" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
The current coalition came into existence supposedly to amend constitutional provisions regarding proportional representation, but the public perception is that K P Oli of the UML and the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba saw common cause in previous Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP investigating top leaders in both parties for corruption.
An amendment to the Constitution scrapping proportional representation would make it more difficult for smaller parties like the RSP to gain seats in the House, as well as women candidates and those from marginalised communities. Nearly half of the respondents (46%) said major amendments to the constitution were necessary.&nbsp;
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But what should be priority areas for the government? Controlling inflation, improving the economy, creating jobs, delivery and infrastructure, governance and social injustice were the obvious picks. Environmental problems and press freedom also made it to the list, but it was clearly not the top priority of most.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src='https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/21366581/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'></iframe><div style='width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;'><a class='flourish-credit' href='https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/21366581/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/21366581' target='_top' style='text-decoration:none!important'><img alt='Made with Flourish' src='https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg' style='width:105px!important;height:16px!important;border:none!important;margin:0!important;'> </a></div></div>
 
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Professions and businesses Nepalis are most attracted to?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-3rWSO" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3rWSO/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="507" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Trust in various institutions yielded some interesting results. As in previous Himalmedia polls, trust in the Nepal Army remains high (40.30%). Even the Nepal Police has recovered some of its respect (35.10%). As expected, people had a poor opinion of the office of the Prime Minister (15.30%), scoring even lower than provincial governments (20.30%).&nbsp;
Mayors and their deputies scored higher on the trust-o-meter (36.30%), and civil society improved its standing (47.70%). The mass media always scored consistently high in annual Himalmedia polls in the 2019s, with 87-90% approval ratings. It went down in previous Sharecast polls where the distinction was not made between social media and mass media, but in the current survey mainstream media trust level is higher than any other institution at 57.50%.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Trust of institutions and positions (in %)" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-vzRf3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vzRf3/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="443" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Previous surveys have shown that although 90% of those with Internet connection used social media platforms regularly, trust in its content was below 10%. For Nepal’s mainstream press, the lesson is clear: to maintain the public trust, it should strive to defend its credibility with greater professionalism.&nbsp;
It also shows that an independent press still has a role in defending and improving Nepal's democratic system.

Pulse of the people

During the governing UML rally at Darbar Marg last month, Prime Minister K P Oli listed a host of economic woes that had rendered the country “inoperable”. His main concern was rising national debt. He said the country could not afford to take on any more loans. “The treasury is empty while our debt is sky high, revenue and manufacturing are down and smuggling is rampant,” Oli told the rally that created massive traffic jams during rush hour on Friday. “We collected 24% less revenue last year than the one before it.” But just two weeks later, the prime minister was in Beijing to sign a BRI Framework Cooperation Agreement. His coalition partner Nepali Congress (NC) had insisted that the deal should not have loan components. The Chinese did not agree, and the BRI agreement for 10 projects under an ‘aid assistance financing' (read: loans) was signed. Nepal’s public debt to GDP ratio stands at 44%. And even though the figure for China is 83% and Japan 250%, those countries have robust exports and vast reserves. A more telling statistic is that Nepal’s debt has increased 5-fold to Rs2.5 trillion in the last decade. “Indiscriminate borrowing has made us skittish about seeking more loans to finance development,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “But we are not in a position to reject loans for infrastructure.” Nepal’s national debt servicing now exceeds its capital expenditure for development. This year’s budget allocated Rs352 billion for capital expenditure, while Rs367 billion was for loan repayment. Loan repayment will increase, which means less money for development. Nepal had to raise 29% of its annual budget from borrowing because of continuing decline in revenue. Just this year, institutions including the World Bank and the ADB extended long-term low-interest loans worth Rs548 billion in budgetary support. The government has also been propping up the treasury with internal loans because it is at a deficit of Rs86 billion. Another Rs84 billion in internal loans have piled up since July. “We cannot afford to borrow uncontrollably like this, and instead take loans to invest in projects that increase economic output, create jobs, and provide returns,” adds Acharya.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef" data-rendition-name="original" width="1285" height="780" loading="lazy" alt="National debt graph NT"></figure>  Falling revenue collection has been exacerbated by a sluggish economy. Ironically, a decreasing import bill also means less revenue from taxes. Last fiscal year, revenue collection fell to Rs1.03 trillion from a target of Rs1.422 trillion. So far this fiscal year, only a quarter of the target has been collected. Corruption, tax evasion and capital flight also take their toll. Two monitoring teams were formed to look into tax evasion in October. The government also reduced the customs duty on gold and silver to reduce smuggling and increase revenue from legal imports. “Around 40% of imports were through informal channels even when we were able to reach our target revenue through customs,” says former Secretary Kewal Bhandari. “Smuggling has obviously become more rampant now.” Meanwhile, demand for consumer goods and real estate transactions remain sluggish, further impacting revenue. Construction and manufacturing are in a recession. The construction sector recorded negative 11.2% slump during the third quarter of the last fiscal year. Wholesale and retail trade decreased by 2.7%. The prime minister must have been briefed on these figures, which is why he sounded the alarm at his rally last month that was supposed to be a political show of strength. His government has no option but to carry out major structural reforms in laws, the tax system, and clean up the administration to ensure financial stability and push growth. The Economic Reform Commission under Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal is supposed to offer fix-its. But this is not the first time such a Commission has been formed. Earlier recommendations were never implemented. Last year’s High-Level Tax Reform Advisory Committee led by former Finance Secretary Bidyadhar Mallik projected a revenue increase of up to Rs3 trillion annually through tax reforms. Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari is proposing a campaign to build 10,000 low-cost housing units in Kathmandu under public-private partnership to kickstart the construction sector. Economist Keshav Acharya believes Nepal’s economy can be steered in a better direction with existing resources through state restructuring and prudent use of government expenditure. He warns, “We will find ourselves in an even bigger soup if we do not carry out a major shake-up to increase revenue, slash expenditure and reduce further loans.”

Near-debt experience

More than 2.5 million Nepalis left the country just in the last three years to study and work abroad. In the past year alone, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/push-factors-driving-nepalis-out">nearly 900,000 students and migrant workers flew out of Kathmandu airport</a>. These figures do not include those who crossed over to India.&nbsp;
There were, of course, returnees in that period, but it is estimated that up to 16% of Nepal’s population at any given time is outside the country. Most of them are 20-35 years old, which means an estimated q<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">uarter of all Nepalis in that age group are abroad</a>.&nbsp;
It is mandatory for students going overseas to get a certificate from the Ministry of Education, and last year alone 112,593 were issued -- nearly double the pre-Covid figure (graph, below).
Before leaving, Nepali students officially exchanged Rs117 billion last year into hard currency to pay for their education costs. The actual figure through unregulated channels is probably higher.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="MORE NO OBJECTIONS" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OBL1y" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OBL1y/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script>All graphs: RAMESH KUMAR</div>
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="$ in, $ out" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gUPnY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gUPnY/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Meanwhile, the 4 million <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-migration-myth">Nepali migrant workers</a> in Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Korea, Europe and elsewhere sent back through banking channels Rs1.47 trillion in remittances ($11 billion) last year. Actual figures are higher.
“The great irony is that while poorer Nepalis toil in the Gulf and Malaysia to increase our foreign exchange reserves, middle and upper class families are exchanging a part of that money to pay for college fees, travel and medical care abroad,” points out migration researcher Ganesh Gurung.
The numbers going to Australia and Canada dropped last year because of visa restrictions. But that has been more than made up by a 30% uptick in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-hard-working-students-overseas">Nepali students</a> going to the US (11,261) and UK (13,339) compared to last year.
But by far the largest number of students are going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa">Japan</a> (34,731) which is also an increase of 30% over the previous year (map, below). Numbers going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/yo-man-ta-mero-nepali-ho">South Korea</a> doubled in one year to 6,889.&nbsp;
Nepalis go to 66 countries for higher studies, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-for-the-nepali-dream">Denmark</a>, Finland and France becoming more popular, although the numbers are still much lower than the top six.
Till recently, Nepalis were the third largest number of foreign students in Australia. They were number three also in Canada. Nepalis were among the top ten in the US.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="TOP 6" aria-label="Grouped Columns" id="datawrapper-chart-mbIyZ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mbIyZ/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="496" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
It is no secret that many young Nepalis leaving on student visas <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate">intend to emigrate permanently</a>.&nbsp;
Countries in the Global North experiencing declining populations know this, but find it a convenient way to allow controlled entry for much-needed workers in the service or tech sectors.
“Many young Nepalis plan to settle in first-world countries eventually, or to return only after 10-20 years,” affirms migration expert Ganesh Gurung.&nbsp;
“Destination countries benefit too, they are getting a new generation of cheap labour without having spent anything on raising or educating them. What’s more, they also earn university fees. It’s a way for them to allow calibrated migration,” he adds.
Nearly half the students coming out of 10+2 schools opt to go <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Between-the-lines/More-Nepali-students-settle-overseas,528">abroad for higher education</a>, leading to a significant drop in college enrolment across Nepal.&nbsp;
Just like migrant workers are a safety valve that lets the government off the hook from providing jobs at home, students going abroad allows the state to dodge its responsibility to improve higher education quality here.&nbsp;
Indeed, some argue that better universities and colleges in Nepal would not lessen the exodus of young Nepalis, because many of them intend to emigrate for good.&nbsp;
“Yes, student visas have become a means to an end, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/hardworking-students">the goal is to work and settle</a>,” says Narottam Aryal of King’s College in Kathmandu. “But more alarming than the figures of students leaving is that we are taking it so casually, calling it normal."&nbsp;
He adds: “Let us not worry about people who will leave anyway, but focus on the students who will stay if Nepal’s higher education is system is redesigned, repurposed and reformed to foster an entrepreneurial mindset so they benefit the country.”&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Where We Went" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-edwh9" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/edwh9/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="550" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
The method of education in state-run colleges and universities are still stuck in the era of rote learning taught by under-motivated teachers using outdated curricula, regurgitating memorised answers at exam time. The university environment is politicised and there are frequent disruptions with delayed exam results.
One way to change this is twinning with international universities, but for this there has to be a less xenophobic and transparent government machinery that is open to new methods.
“Accreditations, partnerships and exchanges with institutions around the world will open up opportunities for students,” says Aryal. “The government should welcome foreign universities, they will force us to raise the standard of our education.”
Information technology and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grass-is-greener-overseas-for-nepals-doctors">medicine</a> are among the most lucrative options for Nepali students abroad. Institutions of higher learning in Nepal itself could specialise in inter-disciplinary liberal arts, social studies, agriculture and the environment, public health, hospitality, or heritage studies.&nbsp;
Youth are also leaving because there is no guarantee of jobs even when they get a higher degree here. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/brain-drain-into-brain-gain">The informal sector</a> is still the biggest employer, and job options in private companies and civil service are limited.&nbsp;
Ganesh Gurung says the education sector must adapt to the changing labour market such that Nepal produces skilled human resources in the areas with high demand like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nursing-grievances-against-the-state">nursing</a>.
He adds, “The focus must be on our strengths. The economy can be revived by making the best use of Nepal’s natural beauty to generate jobs in the hospitality industry, and turn it into a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/go-away">destination for international retirees</a>.”&nbsp;

Brain gain into brain drain

The Kangchenjunga Trek in far-eastern Nepal is a remote and less-crowded adventure that offers raw wilderness, diverse cultures, and breathtaking terrain below the world’s third highest mountain. Kangchenjunga (8,586m) grabbed the world’s attention before Mt Everest ever did because its imposing rampart dominated the northern horizon from Darjeeling, the summer refuge for the British in India. The Kangchenjunga massif is more a mountain range rather than a peak, its high ridge stretching 25km from Nepal to Sikkim.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251211111236_1f51f10becbb6bd01248f5845c6055479201365b1357fbbc6479b6724ea2185c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251211111236_1f51f10becbb6bd01248f5845c6055479201365b1357fbbc6479b6724ea2185c" data-rendition-name="original" width="938" height="726" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga trail map"></figure>  Sikkim considers the mountain sacred, and has banned mountaineering expeditions. But the various prominences of Kangchenjunga are increasingly popular for climbers via the north face in Nepal. For non-mountaineers, even the Kangchenjunga trek can be arduous, especially in winter. It is one of the last pure wilderness areas in Nepal, traversing sparsely populated valleys that are rich in biodiversity because of the high annual rainfall. Even when Nepal was a forbidden land, among the first foreign visitors was British botanist J D Hooker who explored the Nepal side of Kangchenjunga in 1850 to collect plant samples. The peak was first climbed in 1955, two years after the first ascent of Mt Everest.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251215071228_7dd4ddc943554012654df0a2f5065ed364b8349c31888ac8cbe175b4540d1dfd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251215071228_7dd4ddc943554012654df0a2f5065ed364b8349c31888ac8cbe175b4540d1dfd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="597" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga in winter NT"></figure>   <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025121509128_a857e5e9cfc7fea2f5f0b060b8f6e9f6582abc1ac1fd1a60abad90a9d55adbff.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025121509128_a857e5e9cfc7fea2f5f0b060b8f6e9f6582abc1ac1fd1a60abad90a9d55adbff" data-rendition-name="original" width="720" height="1280" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga in winter NT"></figure>  The establishment of Kangchenjunga Conservation Area in September 2006 was accompanied by tragedy when 24 people, including Nepal’s nature preservation pioneers were killed in a helicopter crash. The Conservation Area is now the only one managed completely by the local indigenous people. It has 70 varieties of orchids, 30 rhododendron types, and 15 out of 28 endemic plants of Nepal. Kangchenjunga still gets very few of the 200,000 foreign trekkers who visit Nepal every year, but improved road access in recent years is making it more popular. Trekkers have a choice of exploring the North Base Camp (Pangpema) or the South Base Camp (Yalung Glacier), or combine both for the full Kangchenjunga Circuit (map). This trek is considered strenuous, with long walking days, high altitude, and tea house accommodation that is much more basic than the Everest or Annapurna regions. Trekkers have to be fit and with prior hiking experience. Most teams take tents and camp, and carry most of their food.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025121509128_895ccc1d918f88c255dbeccea19c990bcaa792f384750559cb7257b99f177be7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025121509128_895ccc1d918f88c255dbeccea19c990bcaa792f384750559cb7257b99f177be7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="597" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga in winter NT"></figure>  FULL CIRCUIT Because the region is restricted, trekkers must obtain a permit and be accompanied by a licensed guide. A full circuit can take three weeks, while doing only the North or South Base Camps will take two weeks, including flying from Kathmandu to Bhadrapur and jeep to Taplejung or a rough trail to Hellok. The lower forested stretches are teeming with wildlife, and this is red panda and snow leopard country. The streams and ponds have amphibians and reptiles, some of which have not yet even been classified. The route also passes the homelands of the Limbu, Rai and Tibetan communities with the local culture and architecture more intact than in most other mountain areas of Nepal.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025121509128_90c129a639376621ece0aa067a601573f8b06d934c089a0fa929a7ce9c12018b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2025121509128_90c129a639376621ece0aa067a601573f8b06d934c089a0fa929a7ce9c12018b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="597" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga in winter NT"></figure>   <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025121509128_f51e595e5a18d573365cc611dbf1a49cfb19b2b8ee40164ed500179e2a2b04f8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025121509128_f51e595e5a18d573365cc611dbf1a49cfb19b2b8ee40164ed500179e2a2b04f8" data-rendition-name="original" width="720" height="1280" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga in winter NT"></figure>  The best seasons to trek are spring (March–May) and autumn (September–November). There are fewer trekkers and climbers in winter, and many of the birds and wildlife have migrated down to warmer climes. Despite its beauty, trekkers should be prepared for challenges like long distances between villages, unpredictable weather, and limited emergency rescue options due to the remoteness of the area — all even more challenging in winter. Norbu Lama is an international hiking guide with www.dolpocaravantreks.com and just returned after leading a trek to Kangchenjunga Base Camps.

Kangchenjunga in winter

Nepal’s month-long cricket carnival ended on a sunny Saturday in Kathmandu with a final game in which the Lumbini Lions dominated the Sudurpaschim Royals with both bat and ball.&nbsp; The Royals were bowled out for an embarrassing 85, thanks to Namibian Ruben Trumplemann’s three wickets for three runs, and captain Rohit Paudel’s hat-trick in the eleventh over. Only opener Ishan Pandey’s 33 run-innings was of any note.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025121315120_ced9258f9503a03fe53760d5ff420136ea9cfbaf3001512399ec5cafeef25364.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025121315120_ced9258f9503a03fe53760d5ff420136ea9cfbaf3001512399ec5cafeef25364" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="909" loading="lazy" alt="NPL 2"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251213141232_0b712b438a97b49747029e4b3884b0eeba8ec0ff0bfbc5fd3d61cbb2002a16c2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251213141232_0b712b438a97b49747029e4b3884b0eeba8ec0ff0bfbc5fd3d61cbb2002a16c2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1345" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="NPL 2"> </figure>  The Lions came out with virtually no pressure on them, and Dinesh Adhikari’s 42 off 13 including 27 off the first over bowled by Dipendra Singh Airee won the match. Rohit Paudel came in to finish the match calmly, with 11 overs to spare, scoring two stylish fours and a six before holing out with the Lions on 83.&nbsp; The Lions took comically long to get the final two runs to win the game, losing one more wicket. But it was merely a matter of time, and a single ended the Royal’s misery.&nbsp; As dusk fell, the big fluffy lion mascot was on the field dapping up the Lions as red fireworks went off and Lumbini fans leaped from their seats in the packed stands.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251213141232_ba4c4fde1865c583cf324d253563a0fc96002c31e8381ee85850f71c67515ea9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251213141232_ba4c4fde1865c583cf324d253563a0fc96002c31e8381ee85850f71c67515ea9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="NPL 2"> </figure>  This capped off an incredible run from the Lions who had finished dead last in NPL Season 1, and had only one win and three losses after four games. They won the remaining three, finishing fourth, barely qualifying.&nbsp; This meant that they had to play an eliminator last week against the Kathmandu Gorkhas and then a qualifier against the popular Biratnagar Kings, whose squad included Sandeep Lamichhane, Faf du Plessis, and Martin Guptill. They won both in style. For the Royals, however, this was the second disappointing final in a row after being the best team in the group stage in both seasons of the NPL. National team batsman Binod Bhandari had had an excellent tournament for the Royals, but was in tears at having come this far again and fallen short.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251213141228_a90fd0afaeec366416efe314464d6b1152bd9cca011346b77914c2037b6b156e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251213141228_a90fd0afaeec366416efe314464d6b1152bd9cca011346b77914c2037b6b156e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="NPL 2"> </figure>  Despite the final being disappointingly less action-packed for the neutral viewer, the final marked the second successful execution of the NPL. The addition of seats and floodlights at the TU Cricket Stadium overlooking Kathmandu made evening games possible and improved the experience for fans.&nbsp; The floodlights also made for some gorgeous photography as the sun set behind Chandragiri, illuminating the Himalaya to the north in gradually fading shades of orange.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251205041256_280bea0db1d097c88d478f5ba7197b5e2faa05623ebf9c0438af46d85bdb891e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251205041256_280bea0db1d097c88d478f5ba7197b5e2faa05623ebf9c0438af46d85bdb891e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="911" loading="lazy" alt="Cricket carnival NT"> <figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Adam Rossington’s 323 runs, including a century, and Sandeep Lamichhane’s 17 wickets were the standout individual performances across the tournament in the past month.&nbsp; The tournament brought out characters much loved by the vociferous crowd, including ‘Taklu’ Irish commentator Andrew Leonard who worked in a Dhaka Topi, British presenter Jess Crowe who donned a Sari for the final, and Chitwan Rhinos’ charismatic mascot Mr Gaida who entertained the crowd with enthusiastic nonstop dancing.&nbsp; The tournament was such a draw that the university grounds looked like a carnival with food and merchandise stalls. The capacity 10,000 stadium drew such a crowd that Kathmandu streets were relatively quiet on Saturday with people also watching the game live on tv at home.&nbsp; Kathmandu’s residents were genuinely delighted at being able to talk about <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/cricket-carnival">a Nepali cricket tournament</a>, and not about the Indian or English Premier Leagues. And while everyone appreciated the cricket no matter who was playing, fans showed up for their provinces in loud numbers.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251205041256_e96211da042ec3043940f2feca4cd59dd00351af41a4ca029169871f69f51957.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251205041256_e96211da042ec3043940f2feca4cd59dd00351af41a4ca029169871f69f51957" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="911" loading="lazy" alt="Cricket carnival NT"> <figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  The organisers having proven themselves, future NPLs may need more stadiums in other provinces, even better overseas players.&nbsp; Sambhav Sirohiya of the Kathmandu Media Group ambitiously tweeted that he believes that the league could already become the second most valuable franchise cricket league NEXT SEASON, especially if the government would loosen up its regulations of advertising, especially that of alcohol. Nepali cricketers and fans are now better prepared for the T20 World Cup in India and Sri Lanka in February, with the experience of playing in the NPL and with the access to world-class cricket talent and seeing how they go about excelling at the sport.&nbsp;

Lumbini gets the lion’s share

Ancient heritage meets dern distillery craft as the US-based The Nepali Spirit Company this month makes its global debut with Kathmandu Ayla. Inspired by Nepal’s ancient rice whiskey tradition, the product is the first of four handcrafted spirits that brings Kathmandu Valley’s 1,000-year-old ayla tradition to the world stage. “The first four products combine history, culture, and tradition and it has taken eight years to get to this launch point,” says CEO of The Nepal Spirit Company Kashish Das Shrestha, who is also publishing a book on the history of alcohol in Nepali culture. The other three ayla products are Masala Whiskey aged in Brazilian Amburana casks and spiced with black cardamom from Nepal, Annapurna Ayla, and Haku Chaku Himalayan Espresso Liqueur made with organic Nepali coffee, and chaku (dark molasses).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251216141244_ab74945dc60ce5ff83fe7a88596fc032c18705e7cda9dc62df21694d3ad83b85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251216141244_ab74945dc60ce5ff83fe7a88596fc032c18705e7cda9dc62df21694d3ad83b85" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The American Ayla NT"> </figure>  “I started visiting international whiskey auctions six years ago and after reading about distilling, my passion for spirits grew, and I felt the urge to tell the story of Nepal’s heritage spirits to the world,” explains Shrestha. Once poured in Nepal’s royal courts, ayla is a clear rice whiskey that is a millennia-old living heritage of Kathmandu used in rituals from birth to death and traditional life milestones of its inhabitants. Ayla is distilled to capture the classic aromas and flavors, with a soft sweet after taste. It can be enjoyed neat, sipped through meals, or enjoyed as shots. With more than 15% of Nepal’s population living and working abroad, there is a cultural demand for ayla in the diaspora from Asan to Amstredam to Australia.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251216121236_0db0ec396832736fef60b636d7012a917be65471408c81383a40613f928f9e78.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251216121236_0db0ec396832736fef60b636d7012a917be65471408c81383a40613f928f9e78" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1270" loading="lazy" alt="The American Ayla NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251216141236_a84ede74c67a61e75af2f0cc1c985b4d04ff2292c6bd0bd0b841f4d2c7b593aa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251216141236_a84ede74c67a61e75af2f0cc1c985b4d04ff2292c6bd0bd0b841f4d2c7b593aa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1778" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The American Ayla NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;“We also believe ayla is a wonderful way to tell Nepal’s story to the world,” says Lilu KC Shrestha, Chief Operating Officer of the company. “We intend to use our platform to promote Nepal in any way we can, and also find ways to give back to the country. It was high time a world-class Nepali spirits brand entered the global market, and we are proud to take the lead.” Aside from the ayla itself, the bottle and packaging was conceived by New York-based designer Sahara Shrestha to reflect a complete Nepaliness. “Each bottle and box is a love letter to Nepal, and every detail is an expression of respect and appreciation of Nepali heritage and our desire to share it with the world,” says Kashish Das Shrestha. “And ayla itself is a sacred part of our culture, so we wanted to make sure the bottle reflects this reverence.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251216141244_d2746204c64802ff81453d7a8749f516bf3c62538fe3c98400a9b3978c03b273.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251216141244_d2746204c64802ff81453d7a8749f516bf3c62538fe3c98400a9b3978c03b273" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1475" loading="lazy" alt="The American Ayla NT"> <figcaption>Aylarita</figcaption> </figure>  The bottom of each bottle has an embossed Mandala representing the universe and its interconnectedness. A glass molding of Himalayan peaks Chomolungma and Nuptse signifies the earth and heaven. The bottle cap is a black and gold rendering of the metal plates that hang from Kathmandu’s temples. The logo of The Nepali Spirit Company is also inspired by the unti, a traditional vessel used to pour ayla. While its top is typically adorned with a peacock, the company’s design replaces it with rice stalks. This motif is also on the label of Annapurna Whiskey named in honour of both the mountain and the goddess, the giver of grain. For a new take, ayla can be paired with a lime wedge lathered in honey, cumin, and salt, or on the glass rim. It can also be mixed into cocktails to make Aylarita, Aylatini, or Aylapolitan. <a href="http://www.thenepalispirit.com/" target="_blank">www.thenepalispirit.com</a>, @TheNepaliSpirit

The American Ayla

People like myself were too young during the decade of the Maoist War to remember its horrors. We often wonder what life was truly like back then. Perhaps the closest we have come to experiencing a national crisis of that scale – with the protests, violence, curfews, and political maneuvering – was the GenZ movement in September. How did people cope? What did they fear? What was it like in the cities and &nbsp;villages? How was it that the king still held so much power? What motivated the guerrillas? And, how did &nbsp;ordinary people adjust and endure the war? My curiosity about the war that ended 20 years ago &nbsp;was met with a rollercoaster of emotions with Monica Rana’s debut novel, The Paths We Choose. The novel is not a retelling of events from the vantage of leaders, rebels. It is not about the violence, but a carefully curated perspective of ordinary people caught up in it. It is a glimpse into how the war altered or defined their paths. This is the 'People’s War' from the people’s own perspective. Readers are immediately invested into the lives of two central characters, the sister duo, Sumnima and Rita. The elder radiating from the beginning with her brave and cunning aura, and the latter, more timid and obedient, much of her time absorbed in awe of her sister. The writer’s language flows as effortlessly as the sisters’ strides up the hills to steal mangoes from Dhire Dai’s trees, only to race back down to Rato Mato, carrying us through their journey into adolescence. Amidst the rolling hills, mango trees, life is filled with laughter, adventures, and everyday banter, scenes so serene that they carry an unsettling calm that hints at what lies ahead. Village life is not all painted in romantic hues. The stark reality of poverty, subsistence, and contrast with the comfort of city living are never far away. Amidst these reminders, there runs a humbling truth: happiness once rested on small things, not on the material excess that define urban life. As the pages turn, the title begins to resonate: two sisters, once bound by the same bloodline, shared dreams, and the same roof, are caught in the crosshairs of war and forced onto separate paths. One by choice, and the other by necessity. The story unfolds with the seasons: the relentless monsoon rains, the scorching heat of summer, and a liberating winter that carries bittersweet truths. The year is 2001, as the insurgency intensifies. Against this backdrop, the cousins’ lives diverge. Sumnima is drawn into the rebels’ ranks to 'fight for equality and freedom', while Rita is uprooted, carried across distances, and placed in Seto Bangala as a helping hand among the higher-ups, in her family’s desperate attempt to secure her a better life after their village is reduced to a 'ghost city' by violent attacks. There are betrayals and beginnings, high palaces and humble hills, royals and rurals, identity and ideology, loss and lament, distance and discovery. Through upheavals, tears, and struggles, one thing remains constant: both sisters wonder about the other. They care. They long to reconnect. They hold fast to the dream they once shared to open a guesthouse in their village someday. A dream to simply live with no fear. To be free. To be happy. And, to be together. The writing illuminates vital themes: innocent people caught up in strife, the vast chasm of class from royals dining on silver plates to villagers back home hiding their last grain to save it from looters. And discrimination so stark it was as if people carried labels on their foreheads, marked by caste, skin colour, and gender. The sisters eventually reunite, but their journey is not an easy one, and what lies ahead is far from the future either of them once imagined. One might romanticise it as fate, or might recoil at the harsh reality Monica Rana lays bare: it is often the innocent who bear the heaviest burdens of war. Civilians are trapped between warring sides, enduring hunger, displacement, and violence through no fault of their own. Wars continue to rage across the world. Though the novel does not particularly focus on exposing the horrifying depths of war crimes, it remains a timeless reminder of what the Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish once said: “The war will end, and leaders will shake hands. The old woman will keep waiting for her martyred son. And those children will keep waiting for their hero father. I don’t know who sold our homeland, but I saw who paid the price.” &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251213031240_2f7c62e392a430082c1627719e014f82b857118e226299e1590d74503387ae93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251213031240_2f7c62e392a430082c1627719e014f82b857118e226299e1590d74503387ae93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="The paths we choose book review"> </figure>

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