Half of Nepalis think the country, and their families, are doing better than five years ago. Really?&nbsp; The prevailing narrative is that Nepalis have given up on Nepal, are fed up with geriatric serial prime ministers, and are fleeing the country in droves. But the latest <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pulse-of-the-people">Sharecast Initiative poll</a> found that half the respondents felt their lives had improved, and the country was doing mostly okay. But it has become unpopular in Nepal to say that things are not so bad, and analysts who cited the survey were mercilessly trolled on social media for being ‘hope-mongers’. “There is a strong narrative that Nepali society is in a deep state of depression and most of us want to make it self-fulfilling,” says Rameshwar Bohora, editor at the digital portal Ukaalo which got much hate mail after publishing the survey findings. “What I saw in the survey result was not despair but anger and dissatisfaction at politicians, which means there is still hope.” To be sure, the poll also registered mass discontent with a dysfunctional government, its non-performance and corruption. Respondents had a long list of complaints that included unemployment, poverty, poor service delivery, inflation, etc. The survey indicated that their ultimate outlet was foreign employment.&nbsp; “The fact that people are dissatisfied with politics and criticise politicians means they still have hope and expectation, democratic politics is also the only way to improve things,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari. “People vent out their frustration to build public pressure so leaders and institutions will correct their behaviour and perform. This is how a healthy democracy works, and if we reject public opinion and treat it negatively, then it is our weakness.” Comparing previous nationwide public opinion surveys conducted over the past 20 years by Himalmedia (the publisher of Nepali Times) reveals an interesting pattern. The polls in 2013 and 2019 had similar questions: ‘Compared to a few years ago, what is the situation of the country?’ and ‘What direction is the country headed?’&nbsp; Tracking the trend, it is evident that Nepalis are becoming gradually more optimistic. One has to remember that by 2013, the post-conflict euphoria had evaporated during the fragile peace process and the Constituent Assembly was deadlocked over demands for ethnic federalism.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1309" height="731" loading="lazy" alt="Hope-mongering NT"> </figure>  Today, Nepalis are still disgusted with their rulers but on the whole feel that they can still change things through elections. Their sense of wellbeing could also be affected by remittance inflows, since nearly half of all households have at least one family member who is working abroad or is a returnee. So, is the glass half-full or half-empty? Both. The truth of the matter is that most Nepalis are angry, but not angry enough to give up hope that things will take a better turn. In fact, anger is good: it can force change if enough people vote out tried, tested, and failed incumbents in 2027. Only then can a new crop of younger leaders start to address the mountain of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">problems that have been left unaddressed</a> for so long: poverty, social injustice, political instability, environmental crises, discrimination, inequality, exclusion, inadequate healthcare and quality education.&nbsp; The public has found some respite in the fact that service delivery and governance at the local level have improved, as they share in the survey. Local elections were held for the first time in 20 years in 2017 after Nepal adopted federalism, and it has taken time for accountability to trickle down to the grassroots. But more importantly, the current governance system allows citizens to vote out the leaders that do not perform and replace them with alternatives as they did with Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah and RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane in 2017.&nbsp; In fact, the poll results could be the Nepali people’s way of telling the leaders of the three main parties: ‘Just you wait.’&nbsp; “Democracy is not all roses, but it also has a system to naturally filter out bad components which is especially important today when personality politics has taken over,” says Adhikari, adding that the trajectory of Nepal’s democracy has been progressive compared to other countries in the region. She adds: “Yes, our expectations haven’t been met, development and governance haven’t kept pace, we haven’t realised our true potential yet. But, considering everything, things could be much worse.” &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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‘Hope-mongering’

If there is one thing that has been consistently true for the Nepali public, it is that despite war, corruption and governance failure, they are inherent optimists. They see the good even in politicians and bureaucrats who do not deserve it.
Ever since <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/himal-media-public-opinion-survey-2015-outcome#google_vignette">Himalmedia</a> (the publisher of Nepali Times) started conducting public opinion surveys in 2004, respondents have shown dissatisfaction with Nepal’s rulers, a majority voting ‘None of the Above’ when asked for their party preference. Yet, in annual polls after that, they have always been hopeful about the future.
It still seems to be the case. The results of the latest public opinion poll by Sharecast Initiative show that most Nepalis are fed up with the chronic poor performance of &nbsp;established political parties, but they feel the system still gives them the option of finding alternative leaders. In other words, Nepalis are angry but not angry enough to take to the streets. &nbsp;
That should explain the apparent contradiction in their responses. Asked about the living standard of their families and the direction the country is headed, half the respondents said there had been positive improvement in their lives, but about the same number said they were disillusioned with politics and politicians.
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The public’s message to the old parties is clear: perk up, or we will vote for alternative leaders like Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah or Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP. The country is ruled by a coalition of the two largest parties in Parliament, but there are no signs that they understand, or care, about the public mood.&nbsp;
The Sharecast survey was conducted among 3,000 households across 52 districts in seven provinces between 1 December 2024 to 11 January 2025. In it, more than half the respondents said that their lives and that of their families had improved in the past five years. Another 16.2% said it was worse or much worse, and for 26.70% things remained the same.
Asked about the situation of the country, again half the respondents said it had improved, citing infrastructure development as the main reason. But 24.20% said it was the same, and another 24% said it was worse. They went on to list unemployment, poverty, lack of road access or maintenance, corruption, inflation, lack of quality education and political instability as their main concerns.&nbsp;
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A new global study has found that Nepal ranks fourth in the list of countries with remittance making up the highest share of GDP. This is unsustainable but remittances are propping up not just the national economy, but also individual households. Nearly 1 million Nepalis left the country for work or study in the past year, and about 40% of young Nepali men are not in Nepal.&nbsp;
This could explain the seeming paradox between respondents saying their lives have improved, but that they are not satisfied with the political leadership. Indeed, over 70% of the poll respondents said foreign employment provided the best future. &nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Is Nepal is moving politically in the right direction (in %)?" aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-zsvK8" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zsvK8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="385" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
More than half the respondents felt that Nepal’s economy was in bad shape, while 24.2% thought that it was ‘very good’. Another 16.5% rated the situation as average. And since the economy is intrinsically linked to politics, a majority of respondents (68%) felt that Nepal’s politics is headed in the wrong direction. But most respondents (71%) seemed happy with the way the local government was performing, saying they received timely services at the local level.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How is the state of economy?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-EE4AB" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EE4AB/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="425" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Respondents were also asked to pinpoint why Nepal’s leaders kept being elected over and over again. They mostly blamed ‘vote buying’ (52.10%), and 24.10% said because voters were satisfied with a candidate’s performance, with 21.80% saying voting patterns were determined by party loyalty.&nbsp;
With the government rocked by high-profile scandals exposed by the media, the Nepalis public seemed to be fed up with corruption in everyday life -- 80% of respondents said corruption was rampant, and only 0.70% said there was no corruption at all. Another 15% also admitted they had bribed government officials in the past year.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How widespread is corruption in Nepal?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Q0SpE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q0SpE/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="425" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Have you had to bribe government official in the past year?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-lDV9s" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lDV9s/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="462" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
When <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-opinion-on-leaders-federalism-secularism,2508">Himalmedia conducted its 2015 annual nationwide public opinion poll</a> just before the promulgation of the new Constitution, respondents were asked if Nepal should be a Hindu state. Slightly more than half wanted Nepal to be secular.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Should Nepal be a Hindu nation or remain a secular state (in %)?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-j2aGM" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/j2aGM/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="462" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Interestingly, ten years later, the country is still almost equally divided between secularism and Hindu state – despite the popular narrative that if there was a referendum the country restoring the Hindu state would win overwhelmingly. Himalmedia polls after the abolition of the monarchy showed support for a return of kingship in the single digits, and although Sharecast did not have a question about it in the current poll, one can assume that support for the monarchy may have seen a slight increase as a reaction to the perceived incompetence of the established parties.&nbsp;
For the past few years, Nepal has been ruled by coalitions, often with alliances between parties with diametrically opposing ideologies even if they do not stick to it. A majority of respondents in the survey (74%) were against electoral alliances.&nbsp;
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Why do the same people keep getting elected?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-Oy2Hf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oy2Hf/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="459" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
The current coalition came into existence supposedly to amend constitutional provisions regarding proportional representation, but the public perception is that K P Oli of the UML and the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba saw common cause in previous Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP investigating top leaders in both parties for corruption.
An amendment to the Constitution scrapping proportional representation would make it more difficult for smaller parties like the RSP to gain seats in the House, as well as women candidates and those from marginalised communities. Nearly half of the respondents (46%) said major amendments to the constitution were necessary.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Is it time for constitutional amendment?" aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-mcIzw" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mcIzw/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="500" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
But what should be priority areas for the government? Controlling inflation, improving the economy, creating jobs, delivery and infrastructure, governance and social injustice were the obvious picks. Environmental problems and press freedom also made it to the list, but it was clearly not the top priority of most.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src='https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/21366581/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'></iframe><div style='width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;'><a class='flourish-credit' href='https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/21366581/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/21366581' target='_top' style='text-decoration:none!important'><img alt='Made with Flourish' src='https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg' style='width:105px!important;height:16px!important;border:none!important;margin:0!important;'> </a></div></div>
 
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Professions and businesses Nepalis are most attracted to?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-3rWSO" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3rWSO/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="507" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Trust in various institutions yielded some interesting results. As in previous Himalmedia polls, trust in the Nepal Army remains high (40.30%). Even the Nepal Police has recovered some of its respect (35.10%). As expected, people had a poor opinion of the office of the Prime Minister (15.30%), scoring even lower than provincial governments (20.30%).&nbsp;
Mayors and their deputies scored higher on the trust-o-meter (36.30%), and civil society improved its standing (47.70%). The mass media always scored consistently high in annual Himalmedia polls in the 2019s, with 87-90% approval ratings. It went down in previous Sharecast polls where the distinction was not made between social media and mass media, but in the current survey mainstream media trust level is higher than any other institution at 57.50%.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Trust of institutions and positions (in %)" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-vzRf3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vzRf3/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="443" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Previous surveys have shown that although 90% of those with Internet connection used social media platforms regularly, trust in its content was below 10%. For Nepal’s mainstream press, the lesson is clear: to maintain the public trust, it should strive to defend its credibility with greater professionalism.&nbsp;
It also shows that an independent press still has a role in defending and improving Nepal's democratic system.

Pulse of the people

During the governing UML rally at Darbar Marg last month, Prime Minister K P Oli listed a host of economic woes that had rendered the country “inoperable”. His main concern was rising national debt. He said the country could not afford to take on any more loans. “The treasury is empty while our debt is sky high, revenue and manufacturing are down and smuggling is rampant,” Oli told the rally that created massive traffic jams during rush hour on Friday. “We collected 24% less revenue last year than the one before it.” But just two weeks later, the prime minister was in Beijing to sign a BRI Framework Cooperation Agreement. His coalition partner Nepali Congress (NC) had insisted that the deal should not have loan components. The Chinese did not agree, and the BRI agreement for 10 projects under an ‘aid assistance financing' (read: loans) was signed. Nepal’s public debt to GDP ratio stands at 44%. And even though the figure for China is 83% and Japan 250%, those countries have robust exports and vast reserves. A more telling statistic is that Nepal’s debt has increased 5-fold to Rs2.5 trillion in the last decade. “Indiscriminate borrowing has made us skittish about seeking more loans to finance development,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “But we are not in a position to reject loans for infrastructure.” Nepal’s national debt servicing now exceeds its capital expenditure for development. This year’s budget allocated Rs352 billion for capital expenditure, while Rs367 billion was for loan repayment. Loan repayment will increase, which means less money for development. Nepal had to raise 29% of its annual budget from borrowing because of continuing decline in revenue. Just this year, institutions including the World Bank and the ADB extended long-term low-interest loans worth Rs548 billion in budgetary support. The government has also been propping up the treasury with internal loans because it is at a deficit of Rs86 billion. Another Rs84 billion in internal loans have piled up since July. “We cannot afford to borrow uncontrollably like this, and instead take loans to invest in projects that increase economic output, create jobs, and provide returns,” adds Acharya.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef" data-rendition-name="original" width="1285" height="780" loading="lazy" alt="National debt graph NT"></figure>  Falling revenue collection has been exacerbated by a sluggish economy. Ironically, a decreasing import bill also means less revenue from taxes. Last fiscal year, revenue collection fell to Rs1.03 trillion from a target of Rs1.422 trillion. So far this fiscal year, only a quarter of the target has been collected. Corruption, tax evasion and capital flight also take their toll. Two monitoring teams were formed to look into tax evasion in October. The government also reduced the customs duty on gold and silver to reduce smuggling and increase revenue from legal imports. “Around 40% of imports were through informal channels even when we were able to reach our target revenue through customs,” says former Secretary Kewal Bhandari. “Smuggling has obviously become more rampant now.” Meanwhile, demand for consumer goods and real estate transactions remain sluggish, further impacting revenue. Construction and manufacturing are in a recession. The construction sector recorded negative 11.2% slump during the third quarter of the last fiscal year. Wholesale and retail trade decreased by 2.7%. The prime minister must have been briefed on these figures, which is why he sounded the alarm at his rally last month that was supposed to be a political show of strength. His government has no option but to carry out major structural reforms in laws, the tax system, and clean up the administration to ensure financial stability and push growth. The Economic Reform Commission under Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal is supposed to offer fix-its. But this is not the first time such a Commission has been formed. Earlier recommendations were never implemented. Last year’s High-Level Tax Reform Advisory Committee led by former Finance Secretary Bidyadhar Mallik projected a revenue increase of up to Rs3 trillion annually through tax reforms. Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari is proposing a campaign to build 10,000 low-cost housing units in Kathmandu under public-private partnership to kickstart the construction sector. Economist Keshav Acharya believes Nepal’s economy can be steered in a better direction with existing resources through state restructuring and prudent use of government expenditure. He warns, “We will find ourselves in an even bigger soup if we do not carry out a major shake-up to increase revenue, slash expenditure and reduce further loans.”

Near-debt experience

More than 2.5 million Nepalis left the country just in the last three years to study and work abroad. In the past year alone, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/push-factors-driving-nepalis-out">nearly 900,000 students and migrant workers flew out of Kathmandu airport</a>. These figures do not include those who crossed over to India.&nbsp;
There were, of course, returnees in that period, but it is estimated that up to 16% of Nepal’s population at any given time is outside the country. Most of them are 20-35 years old, which means an estimated q<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">uarter of all Nepalis in that age group are abroad</a>.&nbsp;
It is mandatory for students going overseas to get a certificate from the Ministry of Education, and last year alone 112,593 were issued -- nearly double the pre-Covid figure (graph, below).
Before leaving, Nepali students officially exchanged Rs117 billion last year into hard currency to pay for their education costs. The actual figure through unregulated channels is probably higher.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="MORE NO OBJECTIONS" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OBL1y" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OBL1y/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script>All graphs: RAMESH KUMAR</div>
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="$ in, $ out" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gUPnY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gUPnY/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Meanwhile, the 4 million <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-migration-myth">Nepali migrant workers</a> in Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Korea, Europe and elsewhere sent back through banking channels Rs1.47 trillion in remittances ($11 billion) last year. Actual figures are higher.
“The great irony is that while poorer Nepalis toil in the Gulf and Malaysia to increase our foreign exchange reserves, middle and upper class families are exchanging a part of that money to pay for college fees, travel and medical care abroad,” points out migration researcher Ganesh Gurung.
The numbers going to Australia and Canada dropped last year because of visa restrictions. But that has been more than made up by a 30% uptick in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-hard-working-students-overseas">Nepali students</a> going to the US (11,261) and UK (13,339) compared to last year.
But by far the largest number of students are going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa">Japan</a> (34,731) which is also an increase of 30% over the previous year (map, below). Numbers going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/yo-man-ta-mero-nepali-ho">South Korea</a> doubled in one year to 6,889.&nbsp;
Nepalis go to 66 countries for higher studies, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-for-the-nepali-dream">Denmark</a>, Finland and France becoming more popular, although the numbers are still much lower than the top six.
Till recently, Nepalis were the third largest number of foreign students in Australia. They were number three also in Canada. Nepalis were among the top ten in the US.
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It is no secret that many young Nepalis leaving on student visas <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate">intend to emigrate permanently</a>.&nbsp;
Countries in the Global North experiencing declining populations know this, but find it a convenient way to allow controlled entry for much-needed workers in the service or tech sectors.
“Many young Nepalis plan to settle in first-world countries eventually, or to return only after 10-20 years,” affirms migration expert Ganesh Gurung.&nbsp;
“Destination countries benefit too, they are getting a new generation of cheap labour without having spent anything on raising or educating them. What’s more, they also earn university fees. It’s a way for them to allow calibrated migration,” he adds.
Nearly half the students coming out of 10+2 schools opt to go <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Between-the-lines/More-Nepali-students-settle-overseas,528">abroad for higher education</a>, leading to a significant drop in college enrolment across Nepal.&nbsp;
Just like migrant workers are a safety valve that lets the government off the hook from providing jobs at home, students going abroad allows the state to dodge its responsibility to improve higher education quality here.&nbsp;
Indeed, some argue that better universities and colleges in Nepal would not lessen the exodus of young Nepalis, because many of them intend to emigrate for good.&nbsp;
“Yes, student visas have become a means to an end, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/hardworking-students">the goal is to work and settle</a>,” says Narottam Aryal of King’s College in Kathmandu. “But more alarming than the figures of students leaving is that we are taking it so casually, calling it normal."&nbsp;
He adds: “Let us not worry about people who will leave anyway, but focus on the students who will stay if Nepal’s higher education is system is redesigned, repurposed and reformed to foster an entrepreneurial mindset so they benefit the country.”&nbsp;
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The method of education in state-run colleges and universities are still stuck in the era of rote learning taught by under-motivated teachers using outdated curricula, regurgitating memorised answers at exam time. The university environment is politicised and there are frequent disruptions with delayed exam results.
One way to change this is twinning with international universities, but for this there has to be a less xenophobic and transparent government machinery that is open to new methods.
“Accreditations, partnerships and exchanges with institutions around the world will open up opportunities for students,” says Aryal. “The government should welcome foreign universities, they will force us to raise the standard of our education.”
Information technology and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grass-is-greener-overseas-for-nepals-doctors">medicine</a> are among the most lucrative options for Nepali students abroad. Institutions of higher learning in Nepal itself could specialise in inter-disciplinary liberal arts, social studies, agriculture and the environment, public health, hospitality, or heritage studies.&nbsp;
Youth are also leaving because there is no guarantee of jobs even when they get a higher degree here. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/brain-drain-into-brain-gain">The informal sector</a> is still the biggest employer, and job options in private companies and civil service are limited.&nbsp;
Ganesh Gurung says the education sector must adapt to the changing labour market such that Nepal produces skilled human resources in the areas with high demand like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nursing-grievances-against-the-state">nursing</a>.
He adds, “The focus must be on our strengths. The economy can be revived by making the best use of Nepal’s natural beauty to generate jobs in the hospitality industry, and turn it into a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/go-away">destination for international retirees</a>.”&nbsp;

Brain gain into brain drain

During an event at <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/10+Downing+Street?entry=gmail&amp;source=g" target="_blank">10 Downing Street</a> this week to celebrate 100 years of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/1923-2023-whsle7yp">Nepal-Britain relations</a>, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak committed to helping Nepal on the matter of the climate crisis. Sunak also pledged to enhance trade, investment and economic relations with Nepal. British envoy to Nepal William O’Connor and Prime Minister Chandra Shamsher signed the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-britain-mark-centenary-of-1923-treaty">Nepal-Britain Treaty of Friendship on 21 December 1923</a> which formally recognised Nepal as a sovereign country. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-queen-is-dead-long-live-the-king">Queen Elizabeth II</a>, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/sons-of-the-famous,945">King Charles</a> and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Gurkhas-dying-for-others,2938">Prince Harry</a> have all visited Nepal multiple times but no British prime minister has ever come to Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240521110544_a8d35fe97e4a42196220b703d7788d14d7fc92ce2a014221ba4ed72185ab067c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240521110544_a8d35fe97e4a42196220b703d7788d14d7fc92ce2a014221ba4ed72185ab067c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="Rishi Sunak commits to help Nepal NT"> <figcaption>British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak commits to helping Nepal with the climate crisis and economy.(Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Str)Crown copyright. Licensed under the Open Government Licence</figcaption> </figure>  But predating all of this is the recruitment of the Gurkhas in the British Army with a history of over 200 years, and Sunak also acknowledged the role of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-time-has-come-for-a-gurkha-peace-corps">Nepali soldiers</a> in further strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries, as well as present day Nepali diaspora excelling in various fields in the UK. British Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ann Marie Trevelyan who was in Nepal in December last year to mark <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty">the centenary</a> was also present at the ceremony. She said that Britain will continue to support and expand Nepal's development and economic efforts to help Nepal achieve middle income status. Nepali Ambassador to Britain Gyan Chandra Acharya said that the Treaty of Friendship was important to establish Nepal's presence in the international arena and in promoting international relations. He also expressed gratitude for the cooperation of the British government in the development of Nepal. Members of the Nepali diaspora in the UK, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/gurkha-grandparents">ex-Gurkhas</a>, British parliamentarians and high-ranking officials were present at the program organised in collaboration with the Nepal Embassy in London and the Foreign and Commonwealth office.

Sunak pledges more support for Nepal

The third Himal Media Mela 2024 continued on Friday following the keynote speech from Mohamed Nasheed, climate activist, writer/journalist, and former president of the Maldives.&nbsp;
The day-long symposium included four workshops and two panel discussions ranging from possibilities of AI usage in newsrooms to threats faced by investigative journalists in environmental reporting, to climate finance.&nbsp;
In the first session of the day, Naresh Newar gave a workshop on AI in the Newsroom with a presentation about how media practitioners can responsibly use Large Language Models (LLM) and Generative AI to ease their workload.&nbsp;
“One main way AI can lighten the burden of journalists is by using it on small repetitive tasks that could lead to burnout,” said Newar, adding that newsrooms can use AI in such tasks as proofreading, transcription, review, and research.&nbsp;
“However, one must not claim AI-generated content as their own,” cautioned Newar. &nbsp;
The workshop also delved into the rapid advancement of AI technology, as well as its limitations. There was also discussion surrounding the ethics of AI use, and the need for newsrooms to be careful in identifying AI-generated content that might be posed as human-generated media.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, during the workshop on Data Mining to Tell Compelling Stories, data journalists Mohan Mainali and Arun Karki shed light on formulating stories from available data sources, and the importance of interactive data in storytelling.
“A single set of data can generate multiple stories and analyses,” said Arun Karki. “The key is to know how and where to look.”
Sharing his experiences while reporting for a three-part series published in Nepali Times analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal, Mohan Mainali emphasised on the importance of data visualisation.
“Like the expression, ‘show, don’t tell’ goes—it is the journalist’s responsibility to visualise and present data in the most easily apprehensible way for audiences,” said Mainali. “And although numbers by themselves do not have much to say, visualising those numbers reveals trends.”
The speakers also encouraged journalists to make the most out of open-source and freely available data while reporting on environmental issues, adding that climate-related data are more accessible than most. &nbsp;
“When media is under a financial crisis, data journalism lets journalists form a story without actually having to go to the field,” added Mainali.
Later in the day, water expert Ajaya Dixit during the workshop Media for Early Warning of Disasters discussed how Nepal can move to a disaster-resilient future. He highlighted that Nepal’s policies recognise that it is prone to multi-hazards, and must be prepared for them.
“The media must proactively communicate relevant messages before, during and after disasters, but attributing all environmental issues to climate change is not enough,” he said.
“Furthermore, no disaster is natural,” added Dixit, giving an example of how poorly built houses kill people, not earthquakes themselves. “Media coverage must stop referring to disasters as natural.
“We need to recognise the events within our borders—such as the soot from wildfires that are expediting the melting of the mountains— that contribute to the climate crisis,” remarked Rama Parajuli of the BBC.
Dixit also pointed to the need for collaboration between media practitioners, researchers, and development partners, and that knowledge and information need to be cross-validated.”
“Disaster, hazard, vulnerability, and risk are used interchangeably in Nepal. These terms need to be contextualised, disaggregated, and used appropriately,” he further added. “Reporting has to be based in science.”
The workshop Investigating Climate Finance led by economist Rashtraraj Bhandari of the Asian Development Bank was a crash course into climate finance, as well as jargon journalists must understand while reporting on climate finance.
The economist during his presentation emphasised the need for nations to generate their climate funds.&nbsp;
“Foreign grants and funding are never going to be enough to combat climate crises, and expecting external funding for them is more costly in the long-term— both economically and &nbsp;socially,” said Bhandari, “We as a country must identify what ‘green’ means for us, not what is dictated by grant-giving countries or projects.”
Bhandari also urged the journalists that storytelling should look beyond numbers. “Real stories are the ones that visualise the impact of crises,” he added.
The Media Mela continued into the second half of the day with two panel discussions.&nbsp;
In the session Threats against Environmental Journalists, &nbsp;moderator Bidhya Rai, as well as panellists Ramesh Bhushal and Ramu Sapkota narrated personal experiences in the field while discussing the dangers that Nepali reporters who investigate environmental exploitation and crimes face.&nbsp;
“Our rich natural resources are being exploited by those in power, and is part of our economic activity,” noted moderator Bidhya Rai said during the session’s introductory remarks.&nbsp;
Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal editor of The Third Pole, remarked that environmental journalism had long been attributed to travel and luxury, and simply writing about nature.
“Environmental reporting is political reporting—it involves reporting on corruption, and those exploiting resources for their self-interest,” said &nbsp;“It is thus people-based reporting,” added Bhushal.
Bhushal added that environmental journalists have been under threat from the moment that environmental reporting began in the 70s, soon after the exploitation of natural resources became part of the mainstream discourse globally.
There are not just threats to journalists’ physical safety. The increasing fragility of the environment also means that reporters face the risk of experiencing disasters like landslides and floods while in the field.&nbsp;
“While there is information that can be accessed remotely, one cannot report about the environment entirely from the desk, it has to be done from the field,” said independent journalist Ramu Sapkota.
Journalists also face possibilities of legal repercussions, from local-level leaders to powerful political cronies. And it is not just journalists who risk their safety. The panellists also spoke about how sources become hesitant to communicate with reporters when their lives and safety are threatened.&nbsp;
“The climate of fear in the community is increasing,” said Bhushan.
“Independent journalists and local reporters are under more risk than reporters who have support from and are in communication with their newsrooms,” added Sapkota. &nbsp;
The panellists further discussed how maintaining constant communication with newsrooms, as well as friends, and family can mitigate risks to media practitioners who investigate environmental exploitation.
Also present in the session were Laxmi and Sangam Mahato, the sisters of Dilip Mahato, an activist who was murdered by contractors extracting sand from the Aurahi River in Dhanusha. Dilip had been protesting illegal sand mining in the river and organising the local community to conserve the Chure Hills.&nbsp;
His sisters have continued their brother’s fight to save their river and village from illegal sand mining even as they continue to get threatened by their brother’s killers.&nbsp;
The panelists also spoke about what they called a ‘grey area’ between environmental journalism and environmental activism.
“While we should not be engaging in activism, we should provide information that enables activism,” said Bhushal.
Sapkota agreed. “We need to provide space to and encourage those who want to take up activism.”
Meanwhile, public interest litigator Sanjay Adhikari during the panel Economics of Ecology also touched upon the need for environmental activism. “Environmental activism is not a want for us, it’s a need,” said the lawyer.
Adhikari also spoke about what he called “absurdities” in the plans for the Nijgadh airport, including the scale of the trees cut down to make way for the project, and claims that animals would “retreat into the forest from the runways when planes landed.”&nbsp;
Environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar, who was also part of the panel, also offered critique of Nepal’s environmental policies while championing electric public transport as a public good— reminding the audience that over half of the households, even in the Kathmandu Valley, do not own private vehicles.&nbsp;
Tuladhar also noted how environmental issues disproportionately affect some communities and groups over others. “Indoor pollution is a major part of air pollution in Nepal that directly affects women and children,” he said.
Tuladhar highlighted the economic and health costs of environmental issues such as pollution, reminding that air pollution costs the world 6% of its GDP —$8.1 trillion— every year, on healthcare costs.&nbsp;
Tuladhar asked: “What would we be willing to pay for an extra 1.2 years of life, which would be possible if the air pollution decreased by only 30%?”

The political economy of environment

Since returning from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, I have been asked repeatedly for my biggest takeaways. Among the most widely discussed issues this year was artificial intelligence – especially generative AI (‘GenAI’). With the recent adoption of large language models (ChatGPT) there is much hope – and hype – about what AI could do for productivity and economic growth in the future.
But our world is dominated far more by human stupidity than by artificial intelligence. The proliferation of <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/megathreats-remain-despite-moderation-of-pandemic-and-other-shocks-by-nouriel-roubini-2023-11">megathreats</a> – each an element in the broader ‘polycrisis’ – confirms that our politics are too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious and obvious risks to our future.
These include climate change, failed states which will make waves of climate refugees even larger, and recurrent virulent pandemics that could be even more economically damaging than Covid-19.&nbsp;
Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new cold wars such as between the United States and China, and into potentially explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the West Asia.&nbsp;
Around the world, rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalisation and labor-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy, creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political movements.
Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward protectionism, de-globalization, de-coupling, and de-dollarisation.
Moreover, the same brave new AI technologies that could contribute to growth and human welfare also have great destructive potential. They are already being used to push disinformation, deepfakes, and election manipulation into hyperdrive, as well as raising fears about permanent technological unemployment and even starker inequality. The rise of autonomous weapons and AI-augmented cyber-warfare is equally ominous.
Blinded by the dazzle of AI, Davos attendees did not focus on most of these megathreats. This came as no surprise. The WEF zeitgeist is, in my experience, a counter-indicator of where the world is really heading. Policymakers and business leaders are there to flog their books and spew platitudes. They represent the conventional wisdom, which is often based on a rear-window view of global and macroeconomic developments.
There is a very good chance that AI will indeed change the world in the coming decades. But the WEF’s focus on GenAI already seems misplaced, considering that the AI technologies and industries of the future will go far beyond these models. Consider, for example, the ongoing revolution in robotics and automation, which will soon lead to the development of robots with human-like features that can learn and multitask the way we do.
Or consider what AI will do for biotech, medicine, and ultimately human health and lifespans. No less intriguing are the developments in quantum computing, which will eventually merge with AI to produce advanced cryptography and cybersecurity applications.
The same long-term perspective also should be applied to climate debates. It is becoming increasingly likely that the problem will not be resolved with renewable energy – which is growing too slowly to make significant difference – or expensive technologies like carbon capture and sequestration and green hydrogen. Instead, we may see a fusion energy revolution, provided that a commercial reactor can be built in the next 15 years.&nbsp;
This abundant source of cheap, clean energy, combined with inexpensive desalination and agro-tech, would allow us to feed the ten billion people who will be living on the planet by the end of this century.
Similarly, the revolution in financial services will not be centered arounddecentralisedblockchains or cryptocurrencies. Rather, it will feature the kind of AI-enabled centralisedfintech that is already improving payment systems, lending and credit allocation, insurance underwriting, and asset management.&nbsp;
Materials science will lead to a revolution in new components, 3D-printing manufacturing, nanotechnologies, and synthetic biology. Space exploration and exploitation will help us save the planet and find ways to create extra-planetary modes of living.
These and many other technologies could change the world for the better, but only if we can manage their negative side effects, and only if they are used to resolve all the megathreats we face. One hopes that artificial intelligence someday will overcome human stupidity. But it will never get the chance if we destroy ourselves first.
©Project Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is author of <a href="https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/">Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them</a> (Little, Brown and Company, &nbsp;2022). <a href="https://nourielroubini.com/">NourielRoubini.com</a>

Artificial Intelligence vs Human Stupidity

For Nepalis, the year 2023 was marked by one scandal after another at home, while Nepalis found themselves in the middle of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepalis-in-the-russian-army-want-to-quit">active conflict zones</a> across the world both unintentionally and of their own volition.&nbsp;
The year began with Pushpa Kamal Dahal being Prime Minister for the third time with a promise of better governance. Even the opposition UML gave him a vote of confidence. The new <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls">RSP party’s Rabi Lamichhane</a> was in and out of the Cabinet, and finally decided to stay in the opposition.
Dahal's preoccupation during 2023 was to hold his fragile coalition together, despite having the Nepali Congress (NC) as an ideologically opposite partner. His government was rocked by a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-year-of-scandals">slew of corruption scandals </a>that led to the arrests of several senior officials across party lines, but the big fish eventually got away.&nbsp;
Nearly 800 Nepalis were promised entry into the US as fake Bhutanese refugees by government officials and traffickers. Property surrounding the Prime Minister’s residence was parcelled off to private buyers by the real estate mafia. Gold smuggling continues unabated at Kathmandu airport, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/crime-and-or-punishment-in-nepal">none of the kingpins ever get caught</a>.&nbsp;
Malaysian conglomerate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/axiata-may-find-breaking-up-hard-to-do">Axiata exited Nepal</a> after selling its majority stake in Ncell to a Singapore-based Nepali-origin businessman, which experts say would not have been possible without the involvement of top bureaucrats, regulators and politicians.
Despite the finance minister assuring us that the economy is “on the mend”, it <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-golden-age">stagnated some more</a> in 2023. Revenue collection was lower than projected, exports are at a record low, and 90,000 workers and students left Nepal in December alone. The government has been slow to promote electric transport even as petroleum import continues to soar.&nbsp;
In March, Dahal’s coalition government introduced the transitional justice amendment bill in the House. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-tj-bill-protects-perpetrators-shortchanges-survivors">conflict survivors, victims and human rights groups said it ignored their concerns</a>, the Supreme Court’s directive and flouted international law on war crimes.&nbsp;
The earthquake in western Nepal on 3 November left 153 dead and two months later survivors are living in tents in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/below-zero-at-ground-zero">sub-zero temperatures</a>. The disaster also exposed Nepal’s demographic shift: most fatalities were women from the poorest families since the men have migrated out.&nbsp;
Migration, as Nepali Times has highlighted in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/50-diaspora-diaries-in-nepali-times">50 instalments of its Diaspora Diaries</a>, is now the central reality of Nepal. A majority of families have members who have left to work, study, or settle abroad, and Nepal’s economy is propped up by the money they send home. The search for jobs has also led Nepalis to some of the world’s most dangerous regions.&nbsp;
There are said to be at least 700 Nepalis in the Russian Army, families have not heard from many of them, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/from-frying-pan-into-fire-for-nepalis-in-russian-army">7 have been killed on the Ukraine front</a>. Nepali human traffickers have been supplying mercenaries to Russia by flying them to Moscow on tourist visas. Four Nepalis have been captured by the Ukrainian military. &nbsp;
The Hamas attack on 7 October killed 10 Nepalis who had gone to Israel under the government’s Learn and Earn program, while <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/hamas-releases-thais-but-where-is-bipin">Nepali student Bipin Joshi</a>, who was taken hostage, is believed to remain in captivity. Israel’s ongoing brutal bombardment of Gaza has led to the deaths of nearly 21,000 Palestinians, with the US helping Israel to block a UN ceasefire. &nbsp;
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/burmese-of-nepali-descent-flee-to-thailand">Burmese of Nepali descent</a> have taken refuge in Thailand because of suppression by the military junta which staged a coup in Burma in 2021. Nepalis trafficked by a Chinese organised crime syndicate to work in call centres in Burma also need to be rescued. &nbsp;
UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited Nepal ahead of COP28 in Dubai to draw attention to the climate crisis and the Himalaya, but the summit <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/unabated-greenwashing-at-cop28">failed to commit </a>to an immediate phase-out of fossil fuels. Nepal’s pledges at COP28 do not correspond to its lack of progress in switching to renewable energy, saving remaining forests and controlling air pollution.&nbsp;

Shristi Karki

More of the same in 2024?

The so-called experts referred to in the article <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual">Business As Unusual</a> in the 22 September issue of Nepali Times by Ramesh Kumar, do not seem to have used their ‘expertise’ in making their observations. Their comments are thus simplistic and mutually contradictory.&nbsp;
If they were using a set of commonly accepted indicators and related verifiable data, their opinion could not be mutually so disparate. I know of no economist in Nepal worth the name who have defined the characteristics specific to Nepal economy and have come up with a theoretically defensible set of prescriptions for investment and economic development in the country.&nbsp;
Many of them masquerade as economists based on having acquired a degree, maybe, a PhD sometime in the past. Others after spending some time in the finance ministry as part of the musical chair of inter-ministry transfers in the bureaucracy.
Like most ‘observers’ in Nepal, these economists too dare to make profound-sounding observations based on what immediately meets their eyes.&nbsp;
For instance, this year they seem to be impressed by the size of the crowd visiting the NADA auto show in Kathmandu to claim that despite the nationwide clamour to the contrary, the economy is not really in a slump.&nbsp;
They are the mob economists who gauge the state of the economy by the size of the shoppers at New Road or Asan Tole.
Nepal's tragedy is that all governments headed by corrupt politicians have spent all their time and energy in defrauding the state and gullible citizens. Examples: massive scams like the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/losing-our-moral-compass">Fake Bhutanese Refugee</a> (KPO and SBD governments), <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/crime-and-or-punishment-in-nepal">Lalita Niwas</a> (MKN and BRB governments) and recent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-gets-gold-medal-for-corruption">gold smuggling</a> (PKD government).
Meanwhile the so-called ‘Planning Commission’ and other think tanks recycle what is already in writing. There is no accountability for their total lack of delivery from their writings.&nbsp;
Even at the cost of modesty, I must state that during my tenure in the government as a karmachari, I have had the distinction of innovating three major policy reforms: the institution of user groups, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities">forest user groups</a> and the mothers' groups and their Female Community Health Volunteers.
Together, these policies changed the face of our nation. &nbsp;As the saying goes, if you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there. That seems to be the fate of our planners, policy makers, self-styled economists and of course, corrupt politicians.
As things stand, as per recent agricultural survey, 62% of households remain in agriculture. A decade earlier in 2011, it was 71% whereas the sector's contribution to national GDP was only 34.3%.&nbsp;
The fact that only 12% farm households have had access to agriculture credit, &nbsp;a prime mover for development, and only 7% to agricultural grants, remains the most lethal of neglect to a sector on which so many people still depend.&nbsp;
This clearly suggests massive deprivation of a vast majority of the country's population through unemployment and underemployment, lack of sufficient land and their vastly unequal distribution.&nbsp;
While 4 million Nepalis plus a vast but unknown number <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/love-thy-neighbours">working in India</a> have migrated for income and employment, a 2018 survey showed that 900,000 people were actively looking for employment, and nearly 70% of them were in the age bracket between 15-34 years.&nbsp;
While Nepal's industrial sector remains miniscule, the irony is that sunflower, palm and soyabean oils remain the major export items. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Since none of those oilseeds are produced in Nepal</a>, it only shows that our investment regime remains totally divorced from even the rudimentary rule of economic development — the principle of comparative advantage. &nbsp;
The size of the crowd visiting the NADA auto show, is more the manifestation of the artificial nature of our industrial sector and remains the handiwork of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/inconvenient-truths">corrupt and incompetent politicians, bureaucrats and an unscrupulous business community</a> working in cahoots to profit from loopholes.&nbsp;
Indian economist Jayati Ghosh who teaches at MIT, wrote about the impact of inequality in her own country in 2022, ‘The pandemic brought home to us a hard truth. Unequal access to incomes and opportunities does more than create unjust, unhealthy and unhappy societies—it kills people.’&nbsp;
Then, Nobel laureate economists, Abhijit Banerjee and Esthe Duflo wrote in 2020: ‘Although no one knows when the growth locomotive will start in a given country, if and when it does, the poor will be more likely to hop on the train if they are in decent health, can read and write, and can think beyond their immediate circumstances.’
Which kleptocrat politician, bureaucrat, unprincipled economist, or hardcore politician disguised as civil society leader has thought of our problems in these terms?
Bihari Krishna Shrestha is an anthropologist and a former government secretary.
<a href="mailto:biharishrestha@gmail.com" target="_blank">biharishrestha@gmail.com</a>

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there

A Himal Khabar article last week set off a heated debate. Titled ‘Was Nepal better before?’, it showed that despite all the problems of the past four decades, the country had made remarkable socio-economic progress. But in Nepal’s polarised polity, monarchists argued that the country's present ills can be traced to the failure of multi-party democracy since 1990. Mainstream politicians, on the other hand, seemed relieved that things are not as bad as they look.&nbsp; Rabindra Mishra of the RPP tweeted: ‘Improvement at the speed of a turtle is only development for a society that is used to the velocity of a turtle. Development should be viewed holistically. Not just on the basis of some indicators.' Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Till debt do us part</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050624_2f88f8c36f0078a413e217577098ee7a4f3f528002b62857275f11aca3c5533a.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230630050624_2f88f8c36f0078a413e217577098ee7a4f3f528002b62857275f11aca3c5533a" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Now and Then NT"> <figcaption>A bus stop in Bhaktapur in June 2023 (left) and the same stop with a trolley bus in 1976 (right). Photos: GOPEN RAI (left), DANIEL W EDWARDS (right)</figcaption> </figure>  Mishra's party is for restoring the monarchy to ensure national unity, stability and development. Former king Gyanendra himself recently said that the country had made great progress during the 30 year Panchayat System, and Nepal could restore its past glory.&nbsp; But there were many others who argued that the partyless Panchayat was feudal and held the country back. Former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai posted: ‘Was Nepal better back then? Of course not, and it is better now. But it can be better still, and must be made better. Let us be future-oriented, not past-oriented.’&nbsp; A critical look at the past 50 years of development in Nepal tells a mixed story. In 1991, one in every two Nepalis was living below the poverty line. It is down to 15.1%.&nbsp; The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MDPI) based on health, education and quality of life also shows dramatic improvements. MDPI decreased significantly from 59% in 2006 to 17.4% in 2019.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-tax-system-widens-rich-poor-gap">Nepal’s tax system widens rich-poor gap</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050628_47d9357bd364d0ca8c41c5261c9ef1d07a75782f25d75f3c975dcfd4b2edf185.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230630050628_47d9357bd364d0ca8c41c5261c9ef1d07a75782f25d75f3c975dcfd4b2edf185" data-rendition-name="original" width="905" height="868" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then poverty NT"> </figure>  The Panchayat System was scrapped in 1990 after the People’s Movement, and the country replaced its absolute monarchy with a constitutional one. The Maoist conflict lasted from 1996-2006, and Nepal’s 240-year-old monarchy was abolished by the elected Constituent Assembly in 2008.&nbsp; Plotting Nepal’s development indicators on a timeline shows dramatic progress, but correlation does not mean causation. Average life-expectancy could have gone up even if Nepal had retained a constitutional monarchy. And Kathmandu’s rampant urbanisation and air pollution would probably be as bad if we still had a king. Per capita GDP was stagnant during the Panchayat, but started climbing in 1990, and by the time Nepal became a republic in 2008 it went up steeply. &nbsp;Since this was mainly driven by remittances, it would most likely have continued on that trajectory whatever system Nepal adopted after 1990. Per capita income is not an indicator of socio-economic equity, but it is a general measure of the average wealth of citizens. Nepal’s per capita income was $50 in 1960, when the world average was $459. Neighbouring India was at $83 and China was slightly higher at $89. In 1990, Nepal’s per capita climbed to $185, and it has now reached $1,399. What is noteworthy here is that the rate of income growth was very slow in the years before democracy during the Panchayat with an increase of just $94 (at constant 2015 rates) between 1960-90. “The argument that Nepal was better in the past is untrue,” says former Rastra Bank economist Keshav Acharya. “Nepal is behind many other countries for sure, but we have also seen progress in infrastructure, health, education, human development, communication, perhaps just not in public administration.” But, he adds: “The administration did not exploit people back in the Panchayat days, corruption was not as rampant. The opposite is true now with bureaucracy and political leaders apathetic to the people’s needs, widespread laxity and wrongdoing.”&nbsp; Indeed, even though family incomes in Nepal were lower in the second half of the past century, their needs were much less and most people lived in rural areas and were self-sufficient in food. However, Nepal’s progress in infrastructure was slow during the Panchayat. Although Nepal was the second country in Asia to install a hydroelectric plant in 1911 during the Rana regime, by the end of the Panchayat in 1990, Nepal was only generating 227MW.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_f101e04317e960dd5872e82a954a8668dc92d9a94345e1652adf8c860948d21b.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230630050632_f101e04317e960dd5872e82a954a8668dc92d9a94345e1652adf8c860948d21b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1052" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then electricity NT"> </figure>  It actually took the Electricity Act of 1992 and the advent of domestic and foreign investment in hydropower for generation to take off. Installed capacity has now increased to 2,700MW, and another 3,000MW worth of projects are under construction. Access to drinking water and sanitation has similarly improved. Only 6% of Nepali had access to drinking water in 1960 which increased to 36% in the next three decades. But it has now reached 95%, even though only a quarter of them have access to quality drinking water.&nbsp; The defining factors in measuring progress of any country is average life-expectancy, maternal and child health. In some ways, Nepal achieved dramatic gains in reducing maternal, child and infant mortality rates while significantly improving its immunisation, even though the progress has stalled in the last decade or so.&nbsp; The infant mortality rate is down to 21 per 1,000 births today from nearly 200 in 1960. Maternal mortality is also down from 239 per 100,000 deliveries, down from 850 as recently as 1990. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_4caae25156a2b7a77aad3752f1390e69ea3966a70f243c96d396adf97807e87c.png" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20230630050632_4caae25156a2b7a77aad3752f1390e69ea3966a70f243c96d396adf97807e87c" data-rendition-name="original" width="939" height="713" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then drinking water NT"> </figure>  This represents one of the steepest declines in maternal-child mortality of most countries in the world, and is a direct result of improvement in female literacy, better road access for institutional delivery and the work of Female Community Health Workers.&nbsp; In 1971, only 14 out of 100 people in Nepal were literate. In 1990 this was up to 40% and now it is 76%. In 1990, the primary school enrolment rate was 76%, now it is at 97%. But the quality of instruction and the disparity between public and private schools is more prominent than ever before. Back in 1990, there was only one hospital bed for every 9,146 Nepalis. Today, the ratio has improved to 1,821 – even though access and affordability of quality care are still issues. In fact, out-of-pocket medical bills are pushing even middle class Nepalis into poverty. Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) last year was 0.602, up from 0.399 in 1990. HDI takes into account several developmental factors including life expectancy, literacy, per capita and quality of life. Increasing the representation of women, Dalits and other communities in socio-political leadership granted by the 2015 Constitution is another sign of socio-economic development in Nepal. Women make up 33% of the MPs and most of the deputy mayors across the country are female, even though many were proportionally elected or represent the quota system. Much needs to be done to achieve inclusion that reflects the true diversity of the country. One could argue that much of this progress would have happened regardless of which governing system was in place. Some consider the current progress to be a natural result of changes in the global economy and politics, technological advancement and contemporary changes. Economic and political analyst Dipak Gyawali thinks that the reason for the improvement in areas such as education, health and poverty is not the change in the system, but the remittances sent by Nepalis abroad.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">State-sponsored economic crisis</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_f12b0216cb12dd4d99e7abb007ae61cc1b88862c67644a49ebb017eb5e34c415.png" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20230630050632_f12b0216cb12dd4d99e7abb007ae61cc1b88862c67644a49ebb017eb5e34c415" data-rendition-name="original" width="940" height="865" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then Life expectancy NT"> </figure>  “There has been improvement in various sectors due to remittances, which have reached a quarter of the GDP, but political parties have created a false narrative that the improvement is due to the multiparty system,” says Gyawali, who served as Water Resource Minister in 2005. Even so, the contribution of an open society and an open market brought about by democracy cannot be ignored. Foreign employment itself became accessible following the restoration of democracy. During the Panchayat period, passports were difficult for ordinary citizens to get. &nbsp; “During the Panchayat period, those who studied abroad used to return to the country. Now the youth have no faith and hope for the country, it seems that only the youth who cannot go abroad live in Nepal,” says Gyawali. Economist Acharya blames it on self-centeredness of Nepal’s political leadership, saying that the feckless lack of accountability have led the public to believe that there has been no improvement whatsoever in the country, thus giving rise to populist politicians. He adds: “It is not that nothing is happening, but it appears to the public as if the future is hopeless because leaders are not accountable to the people." Statistics confirm that Nepal has made progress, but the pace of economic development has been much slower than in the neighbourhood. Nepal’s per capita income in 1960 was $50 while in then-East Pakistan it was US$85. Today, Bangladesh’s per capita income has reached $2,458. India is at $2,257. And China has outperformed all others from a mere $89 in 1960 to $12,556 today. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">Institutionalised inequality</a>, Editorial

Now and then

On Tuesday, leader of the monarchist RPP once again gathered on Kathmandu’s streets to deliver fiery speeches, but this time there was no arson and looting and no need for riot police to fire live rounds or tear gas.
RPP leaders demanded the release of their members including vice-president Rabindra Mishra and MP Dhawal Shamsher Rana were arrested during the violent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets">28 March protests at Tinkune </a>which left two dead. 
They denounced the current leadership of the main parties, demanding the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-party-reincarnating-hindu-monarchy">restitution of Nepal as a Hindu kingdom</a>. They also said the government was responsible for the fatalities on 28 March because it provoked its rally with a tear gas attack even before it started.
It has now been revealed that the police fired at least 100 live rounds from high powered assault rifles at the crowd. Twenty-one of the 120 injured received bullet wounds, and most of them were bystanders and people trying to reach home. 
Tuesday protest on the Ring Road in Balkhu was much more subdued, and comparatively fewer RPP supporters showed up. The arson and vandalism in the previous protest appears to have cost some support for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-ghost-of-monarchy-returns-to-haunt-nepal">former king Gyanendra </a>especially for the anointment of medical tycoon and bank defaulter <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/street-politics">Durga Prasai </a>as ‘commander’ of the Tinkune rally.
Some monarchists acknowledge Gyanendra’s mistakes when was king 2001-2008, but say he has had a lot of time to reflect on his shortcomings and seems more disciplined and committed. His supporters have tried to build on nostalgia among some Nepalis for<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal"> domestic stability </a>and international respect that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">the monarchy</a> commanded. 
“Nepalis were promised better service delivery, opportunities for the underserved, as well as better, more honest use of state resources, but the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16992">people in leadership </a>have not been able to deliver on their commitments,” says RPP leader Prakash Chandra Lohani. “The gap between their rhetoric and reality has widened, the people feel betrayed, and the respect Nepali people had previously had for them has changed to revulsion.” 
Indeed, many commentators have warned the three main parties and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">serial prime ministers</a> who have ruled Nepal for much of the past 30 years should address rising public anger with them, and see the writing on the wall.
‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-government-changes-again">The UML, NC and Maoists</a> must introspect about their conduct,” warns Gunaraj Luitel, editor of Nagarik, in an op-ed this week. ‘These leaders for life may save themselves from simmering public anger, but they will not be able to save the system. The monarchist wave can only be dispelled when citizens are assured of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people">better governance</a> through <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/real-world-training-for-youth-leaders">younger leaders</a>, and reforms.’ 
Rifts between radical royals who are gunning for a return to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mob-movement-and-mayhem">Panchayat-style absolutism </a>and moderate monarchists who favour a constitutional king have also weakened the movement somewhat. The split between the RPP and RPP-Nepal cost the royalists numbers in Parliament in 2022, and both parties denounced the violence last month, albeit shifting the blame on the government.
The irony is that the same royalists who want to scrap the republican Constitution had formed electoral alliances with the UML during the 2022 elections. RPP-Nepal chair Kamal Thapa contested the 2022 election with the UML. Thapa has not taken part in the last two rallies, saying he will only be a part of a movement under a national flag, and not a RPP party banner.
For his part, the RPP’s Rajendra Lingden is said to be hesitant to censure some of his party’s more radical royalists for fear of fissure within his ranks, despite his aversion to Durga Prasai’s role. 
Analysts have questioned why <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-is-still-gold-in-nepali-politics">supporters of the monarchy </a>have decided to reestablish an institution that would not ultimately have executive decision-making power. There are doubts about whether authoritarian-minded Gyanendra will be satisfied being a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13957">ceremonial king</a>. 
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-deja-vu-on-black-friday">Nepal’s déjà vu on Black Friday</a>, Sonia Awale
"The Nepali people will not accept <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/forgotten-woman-who-sheltered-communist-activists">an absolute monarchy </a>at this point of time, and both the public as well as <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8371">king Gyanendra</a> are fully aware that there is no other possibility beyond a constitutional monarchy," asserts the RPP’s Lohani. “The traditional monarchy’s institutional capacity might have been enough to meet the needs of feudal Nepal, but an absolute monarchy is impossible both in concept and practice in the context of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Economic-Class/waiting-for-an-industrial-revolution,784">modern day Nepal</a>.”

New year revolutions

Besides multiple <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets">street demonstrations </a>that gridlocked Kathmandu’s traffic for the past weeks, public discourse in Nepal has also been dominated by dangerously <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking">high air pollution levels</a>. Caused mostly by hundreds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfire-season-starts-early-in-nepal">forest fires </a>raging across the country, the smoke contains suspended soot particles that harms <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/playing-with-poison">human health</a>. Thursday’s rain have cleared the air somewhat, and many people will soon forget how bad the air quality was. But the time to address the roots of next summer’s fire season is now.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411060440_d1a119716a9031aadfdd611d299348d436842d376a03e664b8d773957a237524.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250411060440_d1a119716a9031aadfdd611d299348d436842d376a03e664b8d773957a237524" data-rendition-name="original" width="502" height="540" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfires"> <figcaption>EXTINGUISHED: Forest fires raging all over Nepal in the week after 3 March (above) reduced air quality, creating a public health hazard in Kathmandu and across the country. Each red dot is a fire detected by infrared sensors on the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) satellite. But the rain on Thursday doused most of the fires (below) with more rain forecast over the weekend.</figcaption> </figure>  The reason everyone was talking about air pollution was because the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke"> smoke from wildfires</a> was visible. But much more toxic are the invisible and odourless <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint">gases from vehicular and industrial emissions </a>which have always been there. The theme of World Health Day on 7 April this week was ‘Healthy Beginnings, Hopeful Futures’ dedicated to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-more-mothers-and-babies">preventing maternal and newborn deaths</a>. It is estimated that in Nepal, 30% of neonatal mortality can be blamed on air pollution. But that is only part of the story. Harmful as fine particulate matter is to human health, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ground-level ozone and other gases in vehicular emissions are more hazardous to health. While the concentration of suspended particulate matter tinier than 1.5 microns (PM2.5) is closely monitored, these toxic gases are invisible, not measured much, and the public is not aware about the dangers they pose. Surface ozone is produced by the interaction of various gases found when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fuels-poison-air">burning fossil fuels</a>. Besides being poisonous, ground level ozone contributes up to 0.23°C to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">global warming</a> because it is also a greenhouse gas. A new policy brief by the Clean Air Fund titled The Case for Action on Tropospheric Ozone blames surface ozone for a half a million premature deaths every year, 54.8% of which are in South Asia. Ozone also stunts plant growth and reduces crop yields by 26% globally, and 11% loss in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/economic-benefits-of-saving-the-ecology">forest productivity</a>, the report adds.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411060456_aa02a923f8b27544ae54d0220162678f5bbb5eeb8fc3c466173c22c49b3e9a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250411060456_aa02a923f8b27544ae54d0220162678f5bbb5eeb8fc3c466173c22c49b3e9a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="998" height="724" loading="lazy" alt="Gas Chambers"> </figure>  Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bad-air-and-polluted-politics">Bad air and polluted politics</a>, Sonia Awale Ground-level ozone is not emitted directly into the air like other gases, but is formed when oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released from automobile tailpipes or industry smokestacks react chemically with each other in the presence of sunlight. The main source of carbon monoxide in Kathmandu Valley are its 1.2 million two-wheelers. “Usually the concentration of carbon monoxide is 200-500 parts per billion (ppb), this has increased up to 3,000 in Kathmandu. Meanwhile, ground-level ozone has gone from 70-80 ppb to 150 ppb,” says Ravi Sahu, regional air quality specialist with the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).&nbsp; Sahu says <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-smoke-without-fire-p7vb9dcj">rampant forest fires of the past weeks</a> have also added to carbon monoxide and ozone in the air, not just the fine particles that make up the visible smoke. He adds, “There isn’t much awareness about <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe">ground-level ozone and carbon monoxide</a>, we need to urgently look into it.” A distinction must be made between good and bad ozone. Stratospheric ozone protects living beings from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun.&nbsp; Tropospheric ozone can again be separated into two types: ozone in the free atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide, and ground-level ozone which has adverse impacts on health and agriculture. ‘Cutting tropospheric ozone presents a unique challenge as it requires smart and fast action across multiple greenhouse gases and air pollutants, as well as multiple economic sectors,’ notes the Clean Air Fund's policy briefing. ‘It is a growing and neglected problem that needs an integrated approach on both a local and global level to tackle climate change and air pollution together.’ Dying young There was a time when Nepal made it to international news bulletins only if there were fatalities on Mt Everest. Now, Kathmandu’s bad air frequently makes headlines all over the world. This past week, the concentration of PM2.5 that harms human health was up to 40 times the WHO recommended guideline — adding to the poisonous gases already present from vehicle emissions. The Department of Environment says 40% of the pollution in the past weeks was from wildfires sparked by nearly 6 months without substantial rain over central Nepal. Most of the rest is from vehicular and industrial emissions from Kathmandu itself and across the southern border. NASA’s Fire Information and Resource Management System (FIRMS) which issues daily maps of fires, showed hundreds of blazes raging across Nepal on Wednesday, mainly in Chitwan, Parsa and along the East-West Highway.&nbsp; “If we look at the figures for the last few years, it is clear that wildfires have become the biggest source of air pollution, they are seasonal but have overtaken vehicular emissions,” says urban planner and environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar. “Forest fires, stubble burning, and open burning of garbage are the bigger problems now. Nepal, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are at risk every year, we shouldn’t further delay in finding solutions,” warned air quality expert Bhupendra Das during an event on air pollution organised on 7 March by the Nepal Forum of Environmental Journalists (NEFEJ).&nbsp; Indeed, studies have shown that in winter 60% of the air pollution over Kathmandu is transboundary from the south, and in November it is compounded by smoke from crop residue burning by farmers in India and Pakistan blown in by prevailing winds. Forest fires are a regular pre-monsoon occurrence in Nepal, often intentionally set by farmers and herders to stimulate new grass growth for livestock. Winter rains have failed for eight of the past ten years, and this means the fires often spread out of control. The other reason for the increase in wildfires is the doubling of forest fires to 46% of the country’s area in the past 25 years. But this has happened simultaneously with outmigration, with some mountain districts losing 30% of their population between 2011-2021. With less pressure on forests for fodder and firewood, the undergrowth of community forests is loaded with dry fuel just waiting for a spark. The bowl-shaped topography of Kathmandu, Pokhara and other valleys further concentrates pollutants as they are trapped by surrounding mountains. But a year with a high number of wildfires is usually followed by a year or two with fewer incidents. For example: there were 6,537 fires in 2021 but the following year the number was down to 1,528. There were 5,216 fires last year, this year the number has already reached 1,800, and the trend is likely to be broken. Heavy rains forecast for the coming days are expected to douse some of the fires and clean up the air. But the damage has been done: Kathmandu residents of all age groups this week crowded clinics and hospitals with burning eyes, itchy throats, difficulty breathing, headaches, and dizziness. But in the longer term, soot particles that are tiny enough to jump the blood-air divide in lung capillaries do not just cause Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), asthma, but also cancers, heart attacks, strokes, birth defects and other chronic diseases. The latest Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) report by the University of Chicago shows that the annual concentration of PM2.5 in Kathmandu’s air rose from 17.87µg/m3 in 1998 to 31.33µg/m3 in 2022. Air pollution has got worse by 75% in Kathmandu in 25 years. During this time, air pollution has reduced the average life expectancy of Kathmandu’s residents by 3.5 years. According to the Health Effects Institute in Boston, dirty air is among the biggest public health concerns in Nepal killing over 42,100 a year. The adverse impact of high levels of air pollution is not limited to public health, it is seriously affecting tourism. Operators in Pokhara this week said that there were many negative online posts by visitors unable to see the famous panorama of Machapuchre and the Annapurnas even from Sarangkot. Aviation is also affected, as planes have to circle sometimes for hours burning a lot of fuel because of runway visibility being below minima at Kathmandu airport. The higher fuel cost is just passed down to customers, making air tickets in and out of Kathmandu some of the highest in the world. Kathmandu, with a population of four million, has not implemented a concrete policy to curb toxic air despite having formulated various action plans and repeated commitments by the government to protect the environment and control air pollution. The Department of Environment’s 2017 Air Quality Management Action Plan for Kathmandu put forward a policy to reduce air pollution caused by vehicles which was approved by the Cabinet, but has yet to be put to practice. The action included the immediate implementation of the Euro 5 emission standard to reduce pollution emitted by vehicles. However, Nepal has not even been able to implement Euro 4 standards so far. India, meanwhile, has already moved forward with the implementation of the Euro 6 standards. Says Ravi Sahu: “Air pollution in Nepal is not just about air pollution, it has ties to tourism, aviation, the economy so we must be prepared for annual conditions like forest fires, and this requires urgent interdisciplinary collaboration.” &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411050452_821d09e283d8a590f1369bfb71b9b7fc6d950726e0651ea86c6488d04deb1742.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="20250411050452_821d09e283d8a590f1369bfb71b9b7fc6d950726e0651ea86c6488d04deb1742" data-rendition-name="original" width="839" height="784" loading="lazy" alt="Silent Killers"> </figure>  &nbsp;

What is invisible is more dangerous

82 in २०८२

Here in the mountains of far-western Nepal, the biggest threat to life and limb is gravity. Women collecting fodder fall from trees, boys grazing goats fall off cliffs, heavily loaded tractors plunge from dirt roads carved out of steep slopes. There is nothing to be done about those who die on the spot. But for the severely wounded there is only one hospital: Bayalpata. And it is there that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJzWlnYd0ZM&amp;t=8s" target="_blank">orthopaedic surgeon Mandeep Pathak</a> is the last hope for many wounded people. Pathak, 42, is too modest to tell us how many lives he has saved over the past 10 years he has worked at Bayalpata. But hospital records show he has performed more than 4,000 operations in the past decade, many of them so patients did not suffer permanent physical disabilities. Pathak also did 800 major life-saving surgeries in that time. “I treat patients with injuries, but I wish I could also treat poverty,” Pathak says, emerging from Bayalpata’s surgical theatre one recent afternoon. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CJzWlnYd0ZM?si=s_rkbU4YDaw87gqH" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> Sudurpaschim Province in Nepal’s far-west is far away from everything: from Kathmandu, from adequate medical care, from food security, and far from the reach of government services. It has suffered state neglect for centuries, its men mainly migrating to India for seasonal work to families who depend on subsistence agriculture. Pathak remembers the searing sadness he felt when a patient once told him, “Doctor, I sold the last of my rice to pay to come here, please give me a medicine that I can take on an empty stomach.” Pathak was born in Kathmandu, and after getting his MBBS from Kathmandu University, he got an MD from The Philippines. At a time when many Nepali doctors and staff nurses were emigrating, Pathak did not just return to Kathmandu but decided to go to one of the remotest districts in Nepal to serve those most in need. The hospital was established in 2009 in the village of Bayalpata, and has been managed by the non-profit <a href="https://www.nyayahealthnepal.org/" target="_blank">Nyaya Health Nepal (NHN)</a> as a public-private partnership treating 100,000 patients a year for no fees at all. NHN is now preparing to hand over the running of the hospital to the Sudurpaschim provincial government so its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health" target="_blank">model of hospital management</a> can be replicated.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250414130456_b59dabd4604a24426a55fe91c0e5866b5029858bdb4c4028c331557aeb5408ae.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250414130456_b59dabd4604a24426a55fe91c0e5866b5029858bdb4c4028c331557aeb5408ae" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Bayalpata hospital"> <figcaption>Bayalpata hospital in Achham.</figcaption> </figure>  People from not just Achham but surrounding districts, and from as far away as Humla, bring patients to Bayalpata, sometimes walking for days. Some with complicated pregnancies are brought in stretchers, young children with broken arms walk into the emergency, and sometimes there are mass casualties when a tractor or bus falls off a road. And Pathak is always there with his team performing triage, and doing orthopaedic surgeries that would be difficult even in Kathmandu. Recently, his team did a hip replacement at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-the-art-rural-hospital" target="_blank">Bayalpata Hospital</a>. Mild mannered, modest, soft-spoken, hard-working, professional are the words families of patients who have been treated at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-rural-lifeline" target="_blank">Bayalpata Hospital </a>use to describe Mandeep Pathak. But the surgeon is too busy to let all this get to this head.&nbsp; Asked why he does not emigrate like his peers or get a lucrative position at a private hospital in Kathmandu, Pathak answers simply, without a trace of self-importance, “I do not think I could get the satisfaction or sense of fulfilment anywhere else.” When travelling to attend medical congresses overseas or visit family in Kathmandu, Bayalpata has other doctors to take care of patients, but many wait patiently till Pathak returns for their consultation or surgery.&nbsp; When he returns from seminars abroad after learning the latest skills, Pathak’s suitcases are not full of clothes or presents, but titanium bone implants, external fixation rods, or intramedullary nails to be used in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/altruistic-healthcare-models-in-nepal" target="_blank">surgeries at Bayalpata</a>.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025041414040_5356278472c1eb2b9e4af1d593d6234cc8dc5e5161a8c614197c01abefadbd80.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2025041414040_5356278472c1eb2b9e4af1d593d6234cc8dc5e5161a8c614197c01abefadbd80" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1368" loading="lazy" alt="surgery"> </figure>  Before Bayalpata Hospital was established, most people suffering broken bones had to travel down to Dhangadi or Nepalganj for treatment. No more. Although Pathak’s specialisation is orthopaedic oncology, he is mostly treating fractures and rejoining broken bones.&nbsp; Now as Bayalpata’s Hospital Director, Pathak also has administrative and fundraising duties. He has to take the 10-hour ride down to Dhangadi often to meet various Sudurpaschim ministries to release the hospital’s budget — that is sometimes more difficult than the most complicated surgery. Recently, he had to cancel an appointment with the Chief Minister to rush back to Bayalpata because there was a patient who needed emergency surgery. “I told myself, let me save this patient first, then I will try to save the hospital,” he recalls.&nbsp; Once, when he had to be away for a month on emergency surgery training in the US, the family of a 90-year-old woman who had dislocated her hip after falling from a staircase was waiting for him to return. Her son told Pathak: “Doctor, either put her out of her suffering, or cure her.” Pathak told him it was too dangerous to operate at her age, but the son said his mother was in so much pain it was worth the risk. The operation was touch-and-go, but it was successful. The woman who had been brought in on a stretcher, walked out of the hospital three days after the operation.&nbsp; A few months later, a 27-year-old woman was brought into the ER bleeding profusely from an arm mangled by a thresher machine. Even in that state, she was breastfeeding her baby. Pathak welled up seeing this display of selfless motherhood, as he wheeled her into surgery. She needed three operations, but now has full use of her hand. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xJdxLD0hBqo?si=mOpM2R_DsYL88Lfg" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> It is the sense of achievement from such recovery that keeps Mandeep Pathak here in this isolated village in the middle of nowhere. Bayalpata Hospital has not just saved lives, it also saves families from poverty because they do not have to take sick relatives to expensive city hospitals.&nbsp; In January, a woman was brought to Bayalpata with both hands broken. She said she had taken a fall, but Pathak did not believe her. When alone in the surgery, she finally admitted that her husband had beaten her.&nbsp; It was her husband who had brought her to hospital for treatment, but she refused to file a police report. Pathak quietly put both her arms in casts, thinking about the poverty, patriarchy and injustice in society that he is unable to treat.

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