Half of Nepalis think the country, and their families, are doing better than five years ago. Really?&nbsp; The prevailing narrative is that Nepalis have given up on Nepal, are fed up with geriatric serial prime ministers, and are fleeing the country in droves. But the latest <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pulse-of-the-people">Sharecast Initiative poll</a> found that half the respondents felt their lives had improved, and the country was doing mostly okay. But it has become unpopular in Nepal to say that things are not so bad, and analysts who cited the survey were mercilessly trolled on social media for being ‘hope-mongers’. “There is a strong narrative that Nepali society is in a deep state of depression and most of us want to make it self-fulfilling,” says Rameshwar Bohora, editor at the digital portal Ukaalo which got much hate mail after publishing the survey findings. “What I saw in the survey result was not despair but anger and dissatisfaction at politicians, which means there is still hope.” To be sure, the poll also registered mass discontent with a dysfunctional government, its non-performance and corruption. Respondents had a long list of complaints that included unemployment, poverty, poor service delivery, inflation, etc. The survey indicated that their ultimate outlet was foreign employment.&nbsp; “The fact that people are dissatisfied with politics and criticise politicians means they still have hope and expectation, democratic politics is also the only way to improve things,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari. “People vent out their frustration to build public pressure so leaders and institutions will correct their behaviour and perform. This is how a healthy democracy works, and if we reject public opinion and treat it negatively, then it is our weakness.” Comparing previous nationwide public opinion surveys conducted over the past 20 years by Himalmedia (the publisher of Nepali Times) reveals an interesting pattern. The polls in 2013 and 2019 had similar questions: ‘Compared to a few years ago, what is the situation of the country?’ and ‘What direction is the country headed?’&nbsp; Tracking the trend, it is evident that Nepalis are becoming gradually more optimistic. One has to remember that by 2013, the post-conflict euphoria had evaporated during the fragile peace process and the Constituent Assembly was deadlocked over demands for ethnic federalism.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1309" height="731" loading="lazy" alt="Hope-mongering NT"> </figure>  Today, Nepalis are still disgusted with their rulers but on the whole feel that they can still change things through elections. Their sense of wellbeing could also be affected by remittance inflows, since nearly half of all households have at least one family member who is working abroad or is a returnee. So, is the glass half-full or half-empty? Both. The truth of the matter is that most Nepalis are angry, but not angry enough to give up hope that things will take a better turn. In fact, anger is good: it can force change if enough people vote out tried, tested, and failed incumbents in 2027. Only then can a new crop of younger leaders start to address the mountain of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">problems that have been left unaddressed</a> for so long: poverty, social injustice, political instability, environmental crises, discrimination, inequality, exclusion, inadequate healthcare and quality education.&nbsp; The public has found some respite in the fact that service delivery and governance at the local level have improved, as they share in the survey. Local elections were held for the first time in 20 years in 2017 after Nepal adopted federalism, and it has taken time for accountability to trickle down to the grassroots. But more importantly, the current governance system allows citizens to vote out the leaders that do not perform and replace them with alternatives as they did with Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah and RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane in 2017.&nbsp; In fact, the poll results could be the Nepali people’s way of telling the leaders of the three main parties: ‘Just you wait.’&nbsp; “Democracy is not all roses, but it also has a system to naturally filter out bad components which is especially important today when personality politics has taken over,” says Adhikari, adding that the trajectory of Nepal’s democracy has been progressive compared to other countries in the region. She adds: “Yes, our expectations haven’t been met, development and governance haven’t kept pace, we haven’t realised our true potential yet. But, considering everything, things could be much worse.” &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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‘Hope-mongering’

If there is one thing that has been consistently true for the Nepali public, it is that despite war, corruption and governance failure, they are inherent optimists. They see the good even in politicians and bureaucrats who do not deserve it.
Ever since <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/himal-media-public-opinion-survey-2015-outcome#google_vignette">Himalmedia</a> (the publisher of Nepali Times) started conducting public opinion surveys in 2004, respondents have shown dissatisfaction with Nepal’s rulers, a majority voting ‘None of the Above’ when asked for their party preference. Yet, in annual polls after that, they have always been hopeful about the future.
It still seems to be the case. The results of the latest public opinion poll by Sharecast Initiative show that most Nepalis are fed up with the chronic poor performance of &nbsp;established political parties, but they feel the system still gives them the option of finding alternative leaders. In other words, Nepalis are angry but not angry enough to take to the streets. &nbsp;
That should explain the apparent contradiction in their responses. Asked about the living standard of their families and the direction the country is headed, half the respondents said there had been positive improvement in their lives, but about the same number said they were disillusioned with politics and politicians.
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The public’s message to the old parties is clear: perk up, or we will vote for alternative leaders like Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah or Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP. The country is ruled by a coalition of the two largest parties in Parliament, but there are no signs that they understand, or care, about the public mood.&nbsp;
The Sharecast survey was conducted among 3,000 households across 52 districts in seven provinces between 1 December 2024 to 11 January 2025. In it, more than half the respondents said that their lives and that of their families had improved in the past five years. Another 16.2% said it was worse or much worse, and for 26.70% things remained the same.
Asked about the situation of the country, again half the respondents said it had improved, citing infrastructure development as the main reason. But 24.20% said it was the same, and another 24% said it was worse. They went on to list unemployment, poverty, lack of road access or maintenance, corruption, inflation, lack of quality education and political instability as their main concerns.&nbsp;
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A new global study has found that Nepal ranks fourth in the list of countries with remittance making up the highest share of GDP. This is unsustainable but remittances are propping up not just the national economy, but also individual households. Nearly 1 million Nepalis left the country for work or study in the past year, and about 40% of young Nepali men are not in Nepal.&nbsp;
This could explain the seeming paradox between respondents saying their lives have improved, but that they are not satisfied with the political leadership. Indeed, over 70% of the poll respondents said foreign employment provided the best future. &nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Is Nepal is moving politically in the right direction (in %)?" aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-zsvK8" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zsvK8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="385" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
More than half the respondents felt that Nepal’s economy was in bad shape, while 24.2% thought that it was ‘very good’. Another 16.5% rated the situation as average. And since the economy is intrinsically linked to politics, a majority of respondents (68%) felt that Nepal’s politics is headed in the wrong direction. But most respondents (71%) seemed happy with the way the local government was performing, saying they received timely services at the local level.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How is the state of economy?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-EE4AB" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EE4AB/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="425" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Respondents were also asked to pinpoint why Nepal’s leaders kept being elected over and over again. They mostly blamed ‘vote buying’ (52.10%), and 24.10% said because voters were satisfied with a candidate’s performance, with 21.80% saying voting patterns were determined by party loyalty.&nbsp;
With the government rocked by high-profile scandals exposed by the media, the Nepalis public seemed to be fed up with corruption in everyday life -- 80% of respondents said corruption was rampant, and only 0.70% said there was no corruption at all. Another 15% also admitted they had bribed government officials in the past year.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="How widespread is corruption in Nepal?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Q0SpE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q0SpE/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="425" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Have you had to bribe government official in the past year?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-lDV9s" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lDV9s/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="462" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
When <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-opinion-on-leaders-federalism-secularism,2508">Himalmedia conducted its 2015 annual nationwide public opinion poll</a> just before the promulgation of the new Constitution, respondents were asked if Nepal should be a Hindu state. Slightly more than half wanted Nepal to be secular.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Should Nepal be a Hindu nation or remain a secular state (in %)?" aria-label="Donut Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-j2aGM" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/j2aGM/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="462" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Interestingly, ten years later, the country is still almost equally divided between secularism and Hindu state – despite the popular narrative that if there was a referendum the country restoring the Hindu state would win overwhelmingly. Himalmedia polls after the abolition of the monarchy showed support for a return of kingship in the single digits, and although Sharecast did not have a question about it in the current poll, one can assume that support for the monarchy may have seen a slight increase as a reaction to the perceived incompetence of the established parties.&nbsp;
For the past few years, Nepal has been ruled by coalitions, often with alliances between parties with diametrically opposing ideologies even if they do not stick to it. A majority of respondents in the survey (74%) were against electoral alliances.&nbsp;
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<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Why do the same people keep getting elected?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-Oy2Hf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oy2Hf/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="459" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
The current coalition came into existence supposedly to amend constitutional provisions regarding proportional representation, but the public perception is that K P Oli of the UML and the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba saw common cause in previous Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP investigating top leaders in both parties for corruption.
An amendment to the Constitution scrapping proportional representation would make it more difficult for smaller parties like the RSP to gain seats in the House, as well as women candidates and those from marginalised communities. Nearly half of the respondents (46%) said major amendments to the constitution were necessary.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Is it time for constitutional amendment?" aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-mcIzw" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mcIzw/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="500" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
But what should be priority areas for the government? Controlling inflation, improving the economy, creating jobs, delivery and infrastructure, governance and social injustice were the obvious picks. Environmental problems and press freedom also made it to the list, but it was clearly not the top priority of most.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src='https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/21366581/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'></iframe><div style='width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;'><a class='flourish-credit' href='https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/21366581/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/21366581' target='_top' style='text-decoration:none!important'><img alt='Made with Flourish' src='https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg' style='width:105px!important;height:16px!important;border:none!important;margin:0!important;'> </a></div></div>
 
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Professions and businesses Nepalis are most attracted to?" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-3rWSO" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3rWSO/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="507" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Trust in various institutions yielded some interesting results. As in previous Himalmedia polls, trust in the Nepal Army remains high (40.30%). Even the Nepal Police has recovered some of its respect (35.10%). As expected, people had a poor opinion of the office of the Prime Minister (15.30%), scoring even lower than provincial governments (20.30%).&nbsp;
Mayors and their deputies scored higher on the trust-o-meter (36.30%), and civil society improved its standing (47.70%). The mass media always scored consistently high in annual Himalmedia polls in the 2019s, with 87-90% approval ratings. It went down in previous Sharecast polls where the distinction was not made between social media and mass media, but in the current survey mainstream media trust level is higher than any other institution at 57.50%.&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Trust of institutions and positions (in %)" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-vzRf3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vzRf3/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="443" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Previous surveys have shown that although 90% of those with Internet connection used social media platforms regularly, trust in its content was below 10%. For Nepal’s mainstream press, the lesson is clear: to maintain the public trust, it should strive to defend its credibility with greater professionalism.&nbsp;
It also shows that an independent press still has a role in defending and improving Nepal's democratic system.

Pulse of the people

During the governing UML rally at Darbar Marg last month, Prime Minister K P Oli listed a host of economic woes that had rendered the country “inoperable”. His main concern was rising national debt. He said the country could not afford to take on any more loans. “The treasury is empty while our debt is sky high, revenue and manufacturing are down and smuggling is rampant,” Oli told the rally that created massive traffic jams during rush hour on Friday. “We collected 24% less revenue last year than the one before it.” But just two weeks later, the prime minister was in Beijing to sign a BRI Framework Cooperation Agreement. His coalition partner Nepali Congress (NC) had insisted that the deal should not have loan components. The Chinese did not agree, and the BRI agreement for 10 projects under an ‘aid assistance financing' (read: loans) was signed. Nepal’s public debt to GDP ratio stands at 44%. And even though the figure for China is 83% and Japan 250%, those countries have robust exports and vast reserves. A more telling statistic is that Nepal’s debt has increased 5-fold to Rs2.5 trillion in the last decade. “Indiscriminate borrowing has made us skittish about seeking more loans to finance development,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “But we are not in a position to reject loans for infrastructure.” Nepal’s national debt servicing now exceeds its capital expenditure for development. This year’s budget allocated Rs352 billion for capital expenditure, while Rs367 billion was for loan repayment. Loan repayment will increase, which means less money for development. Nepal had to raise 29% of its annual budget from borrowing because of continuing decline in revenue. Just this year, institutions including the World Bank and the ADB extended long-term low-interest loans worth Rs548 billion in budgetary support. The government has also been propping up the treasury with internal loans because it is at a deficit of Rs86 billion. Another Rs84 billion in internal loans have piled up since July. “We cannot afford to borrow uncontrollably like this, and instead take loans to invest in projects that increase economic output, create jobs, and provide returns,” adds Acharya.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241213041232_8e54cea368c357f4583322ae92649981ac8c4b50fe49b6822a6008cb39936cef" data-rendition-name="original" width="1285" height="780" loading="lazy" alt="National debt graph NT"></figure>  Falling revenue collection has been exacerbated by a sluggish economy. Ironically, a decreasing import bill also means less revenue from taxes. Last fiscal year, revenue collection fell to Rs1.03 trillion from a target of Rs1.422 trillion. So far this fiscal year, only a quarter of the target has been collected. Corruption, tax evasion and capital flight also take their toll. Two monitoring teams were formed to look into tax evasion in October. The government also reduced the customs duty on gold and silver to reduce smuggling and increase revenue from legal imports. “Around 40% of imports were through informal channels even when we were able to reach our target revenue through customs,” says former Secretary Kewal Bhandari. “Smuggling has obviously become more rampant now.” Meanwhile, demand for consumer goods and real estate transactions remain sluggish, further impacting revenue. Construction and manufacturing are in a recession. The construction sector recorded negative 11.2% slump during the third quarter of the last fiscal year. Wholesale and retail trade decreased by 2.7%. The prime minister must have been briefed on these figures, which is why he sounded the alarm at his rally last month that was supposed to be a political show of strength. His government has no option but to carry out major structural reforms in laws, the tax system, and clean up the administration to ensure financial stability and push growth. The Economic Reform Commission under Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal is supposed to offer fix-its. But this is not the first time such a Commission has been formed. Earlier recommendations were never implemented. Last year’s High-Level Tax Reform Advisory Committee led by former Finance Secretary Bidyadhar Mallik projected a revenue increase of up to Rs3 trillion annually through tax reforms. Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari is proposing a campaign to build 10,000 low-cost housing units in Kathmandu under public-private partnership to kickstart the construction sector. Economist Keshav Acharya believes Nepal’s economy can be steered in a better direction with existing resources through state restructuring and prudent use of government expenditure. He warns, “We will find ourselves in an even bigger soup if we do not carry out a major shake-up to increase revenue, slash expenditure and reduce further loans.”

Near-debt experience

More than 2.5 million Nepalis left the country just in the last three years to study and work abroad. In the past year alone, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/push-factors-driving-nepalis-out">nearly 900,000 students and migrant workers flew out of Kathmandu airport</a>. These figures do not include those who crossed over to India.&nbsp;
There were, of course, returnees in that period, but it is estimated that up to 16% of Nepal’s population at any given time is outside the country. Most of them are 20-35 years old, which means an estimated q<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">uarter of all Nepalis in that age group are abroad</a>.&nbsp;
It is mandatory for students going overseas to get a certificate from the Ministry of Education, and last year alone 112,593 were issued -- nearly double the pre-Covid figure (graph, below).
Before leaving, Nepali students officially exchanged Rs117 billion last year into hard currency to pay for their education costs. The actual figure through unregulated channels is probably higher.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="MORE NO OBJECTIONS" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OBL1y" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OBL1y/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script>All graphs: RAMESH KUMAR</div>
<div class="embed-block"><iframe title="$ in, $ out" aria-label="Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gUPnY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gUPnY/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div>
Meanwhile, the 4 million <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-migration-myth">Nepali migrant workers</a> in Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Korea, Europe and elsewhere sent back through banking channels Rs1.47 trillion in remittances ($11 billion) last year. Actual figures are higher.
“The great irony is that while poorer Nepalis toil in the Gulf and Malaysia to increase our foreign exchange reserves, middle and upper class families are exchanging a part of that money to pay for college fees, travel and medical care abroad,” points out migration researcher Ganesh Gurung.
The numbers going to Australia and Canada dropped last year because of visa restrictions. But that has been more than made up by a 30% uptick in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-hard-working-students-overseas">Nepali students</a> going to the US (11,261) and UK (13,339) compared to last year.
But by far the largest number of students are going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa">Japan</a> (34,731) which is also an increase of 30% over the previous year (map, below). Numbers going to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/yo-man-ta-mero-nepali-ho">South Korea</a> doubled in one year to 6,889.&nbsp;
Nepalis go to 66 countries for higher studies, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-for-the-nepali-dream">Denmark</a>, Finland and France becoming more popular, although the numbers are still much lower than the top six.
Till recently, Nepalis were the third largest number of foreign students in Australia. They were number three also in Canada. Nepalis were among the top ten in the US.
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It is no secret that many young Nepalis leaving on student visas <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate">intend to emigrate permanently</a>.&nbsp;
Countries in the Global North experiencing declining populations know this, but find it a convenient way to allow controlled entry for much-needed workers in the service or tech sectors.
“Many young Nepalis plan to settle in first-world countries eventually, or to return only after 10-20 years,” affirms migration expert Ganesh Gurung.&nbsp;
“Destination countries benefit too, they are getting a new generation of cheap labour without having spent anything on raising or educating them. What’s more, they also earn university fees. It’s a way for them to allow calibrated migration,” he adds.
Nearly half the students coming out of 10+2 schools opt to go <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Between-the-lines/More-Nepali-students-settle-overseas,528">abroad for higher education</a>, leading to a significant drop in college enrolment across Nepal.&nbsp;
Just like migrant workers are a safety valve that lets the government off the hook from providing jobs at home, students going abroad allows the state to dodge its responsibility to improve higher education quality here.&nbsp;
Indeed, some argue that better universities and colleges in Nepal would not lessen the exodus of young Nepalis, because many of them intend to emigrate for good.&nbsp;
“Yes, student visas have become a means to an end, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/hardworking-students">the goal is to work and settle</a>,” says Narottam Aryal of King’s College in Kathmandu. “But more alarming than the figures of students leaving is that we are taking it so casually, calling it normal."&nbsp;
He adds: “Let us not worry about people who will leave anyway, but focus on the students who will stay if Nepal’s higher education is system is redesigned, repurposed and reformed to foster an entrepreneurial mindset so they benefit the country.”&nbsp;
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The method of education in state-run colleges and universities are still stuck in the era of rote learning taught by under-motivated teachers using outdated curricula, regurgitating memorised answers at exam time. The university environment is politicised and there are frequent disruptions with delayed exam results.
One way to change this is twinning with international universities, but for this there has to be a less xenophobic and transparent government machinery that is open to new methods.
“Accreditations, partnerships and exchanges with institutions around the world will open up opportunities for students,” says Aryal. “The government should welcome foreign universities, they will force us to raise the standard of our education.”
Information technology and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grass-is-greener-overseas-for-nepals-doctors">medicine</a> are among the most lucrative options for Nepali students abroad. Institutions of higher learning in Nepal itself could specialise in inter-disciplinary liberal arts, social studies, agriculture and the environment, public health, hospitality, or heritage studies.&nbsp;
Youth are also leaving because there is no guarantee of jobs even when they get a higher degree here. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/brain-drain-into-brain-gain">The informal sector</a> is still the biggest employer, and job options in private companies and civil service are limited.&nbsp;
Ganesh Gurung says the education sector must adapt to the changing labour market such that Nepal produces skilled human resources in the areas with high demand like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nursing-grievances-against-the-state">nursing</a>.
He adds, “The focus must be on our strengths. The economy can be revived by making the best use of Nepal’s natural beauty to generate jobs in the hospitality industry, and turn it into a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/go-away">destination for international retirees</a>.”&nbsp;

Brain gain into brain drain

During an event at <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/10+Downing+Street?entry=gmail&amp;source=g" target="_blank">10 Downing Street</a> this week to celebrate 100 years of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/1923-2023-whsle7yp">Nepal-Britain relations</a>, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak committed to helping Nepal on the matter of the climate crisis. Sunak also pledged to enhance trade, investment and economic relations with Nepal. British envoy to Nepal William O’Connor and Prime Minister Chandra Shamsher signed the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-britain-mark-centenary-of-1923-treaty">Nepal-Britain Treaty of Friendship on 21 December 1923</a> which formally recognised Nepal as a sovereign country. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-queen-is-dead-long-live-the-king">Queen Elizabeth II</a>, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/sons-of-the-famous,945">King Charles</a> and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Gurkhas-dying-for-others,2938">Prince Harry</a> have all visited Nepal multiple times but no British prime minister has ever come to Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240521110544_a8d35fe97e4a42196220b703d7788d14d7fc92ce2a014221ba4ed72185ab067c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240521110544_a8d35fe97e4a42196220b703d7788d14d7fc92ce2a014221ba4ed72185ab067c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="Rishi Sunak commits to help Nepal NT"> <figcaption>British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak commits to helping Nepal with the climate crisis and economy.(Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Str)Crown copyright. Licensed under the Open Government Licence</figcaption> </figure>  But predating all of this is the recruitment of the Gurkhas in the British Army with a history of over 200 years, and Sunak also acknowledged the role of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-time-has-come-for-a-gurkha-peace-corps">Nepali soldiers</a> in further strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries, as well as present day Nepali diaspora excelling in various fields in the UK. British Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ann Marie Trevelyan who was in Nepal in December last year to mark <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty">the centenary</a> was also present at the ceremony. She said that Britain will continue to support and expand Nepal's development and economic efforts to help Nepal achieve middle income status. Nepali Ambassador to Britain Gyan Chandra Acharya said that the Treaty of Friendship was important to establish Nepal's presence in the international arena and in promoting international relations. He also expressed gratitude for the cooperation of the British government in the development of Nepal. Members of the Nepali diaspora in the UK, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/gurkha-grandparents">ex-Gurkhas</a>, British parliamentarians and high-ranking officials were present at the program organised in collaboration with the Nepal Embassy in London and the Foreign and Commonwealth office.

Sunak pledges more support for Nepal

The third Himal Media Mela 2024 continued on Friday following the keynote speech from Mohamed Nasheed, climate activist, writer/journalist, and former president of the Maldives.&nbsp;
The day-long symposium included four workshops and two panel discussions ranging from possibilities of AI usage in newsrooms to threats faced by investigative journalists in environmental reporting, to climate finance.&nbsp;
In the first session of the day, Naresh Newar gave a workshop on AI in the Newsroom with a presentation about how media practitioners can responsibly use Large Language Models (LLM) and Generative AI to ease their workload.&nbsp;
“One main way AI can lighten the burden of journalists is by using it on small repetitive tasks that could lead to burnout,” said Newar, adding that newsrooms can use AI in such tasks as proofreading, transcription, review, and research.&nbsp;
“However, one must not claim AI-generated content as their own,” cautioned Newar. &nbsp;
The workshop also delved into the rapid advancement of AI technology, as well as its limitations. There was also discussion surrounding the ethics of AI use, and the need for newsrooms to be careful in identifying AI-generated content that might be posed as human-generated media.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, during the workshop on Data Mining to Tell Compelling Stories, data journalists Mohan Mainali and Arun Karki shed light on formulating stories from available data sources, and the importance of interactive data in storytelling.
“A single set of data can generate multiple stories and analyses,” said Arun Karki. “The key is to know how and where to look.”
Sharing his experiences while reporting for a three-part series published in Nepali Times analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal, Mohan Mainali emphasised on the importance of data visualisation.
“Like the expression, ‘show, don’t tell’ goes—it is the journalist’s responsibility to visualise and present data in the most easily apprehensible way for audiences,” said Mainali. “And although numbers by themselves do not have much to say, visualising those numbers reveals trends.”
The speakers also encouraged journalists to make the most out of open-source and freely available data while reporting on environmental issues, adding that climate-related data are more accessible than most. &nbsp;
“When media is under a financial crisis, data journalism lets journalists form a story without actually having to go to the field,” added Mainali.
Later in the day, water expert Ajaya Dixit during the workshop Media for Early Warning of Disasters discussed how Nepal can move to a disaster-resilient future. He highlighted that Nepal’s policies recognise that it is prone to multi-hazards, and must be prepared for them.
“The media must proactively communicate relevant messages before, during and after disasters, but attributing all environmental issues to climate change is not enough,” he said.
“Furthermore, no disaster is natural,” added Dixit, giving an example of how poorly built houses kill people, not earthquakes themselves. “Media coverage must stop referring to disasters as natural.
“We need to recognise the events within our borders—such as the soot from wildfires that are expediting the melting of the mountains— that contribute to the climate crisis,” remarked Rama Parajuli of the BBC.
Dixit also pointed to the need for collaboration between media practitioners, researchers, and development partners, and that knowledge and information need to be cross-validated.”
“Disaster, hazard, vulnerability, and risk are used interchangeably in Nepal. These terms need to be contextualised, disaggregated, and used appropriately,” he further added. “Reporting has to be based in science.”
The workshop Investigating Climate Finance led by economist Rashtraraj Bhandari of the Asian Development Bank was a crash course into climate finance, as well as jargon journalists must understand while reporting on climate finance.
The economist during his presentation emphasised the need for nations to generate their climate funds.&nbsp;
“Foreign grants and funding are never going to be enough to combat climate crises, and expecting external funding for them is more costly in the long-term— both economically and &nbsp;socially,” said Bhandari, “We as a country must identify what ‘green’ means for us, not what is dictated by grant-giving countries or projects.”
Bhandari also urged the journalists that storytelling should look beyond numbers. “Real stories are the ones that visualise the impact of crises,” he added.
The Media Mela continued into the second half of the day with two panel discussions.&nbsp;
In the session Threats against Environmental Journalists, &nbsp;moderator Bidhya Rai, as well as panellists Ramesh Bhushal and Ramu Sapkota narrated personal experiences in the field while discussing the dangers that Nepali reporters who investigate environmental exploitation and crimes face.&nbsp;
“Our rich natural resources are being exploited by those in power, and is part of our economic activity,” noted moderator Bidhya Rai said during the session’s introductory remarks.&nbsp;
Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal editor of The Third Pole, remarked that environmental journalism had long been attributed to travel and luxury, and simply writing about nature.
“Environmental reporting is political reporting—it involves reporting on corruption, and those exploiting resources for their self-interest,” said &nbsp;“It is thus people-based reporting,” added Bhushal.
Bhushal added that environmental journalists have been under threat from the moment that environmental reporting began in the 70s, soon after the exploitation of natural resources became part of the mainstream discourse globally.
There are not just threats to journalists’ physical safety. The increasing fragility of the environment also means that reporters face the risk of experiencing disasters like landslides and floods while in the field.&nbsp;
“While there is information that can be accessed remotely, one cannot report about the environment entirely from the desk, it has to be done from the field,” said independent journalist Ramu Sapkota.
Journalists also face possibilities of legal repercussions, from local-level leaders to powerful political cronies. And it is not just journalists who risk their safety. The panellists also spoke about how sources become hesitant to communicate with reporters when their lives and safety are threatened.&nbsp;
“The climate of fear in the community is increasing,” said Bhushan.
“Independent journalists and local reporters are under more risk than reporters who have support from and are in communication with their newsrooms,” added Sapkota. &nbsp;
The panellists further discussed how maintaining constant communication with newsrooms, as well as friends, and family can mitigate risks to media practitioners who investigate environmental exploitation.
Also present in the session were Laxmi and Sangam Mahato, the sisters of Dilip Mahato, an activist who was murdered by contractors extracting sand from the Aurahi River in Dhanusha. Dilip had been protesting illegal sand mining in the river and organising the local community to conserve the Chure Hills.&nbsp;
His sisters have continued their brother’s fight to save their river and village from illegal sand mining even as they continue to get threatened by their brother’s killers.&nbsp;
The panelists also spoke about what they called a ‘grey area’ between environmental journalism and environmental activism.
“While we should not be engaging in activism, we should provide information that enables activism,” said Bhushal.
Sapkota agreed. “We need to provide space to and encourage those who want to take up activism.”
Meanwhile, public interest litigator Sanjay Adhikari during the panel Economics of Ecology also touched upon the need for environmental activism. “Environmental activism is not a want for us, it’s a need,” said the lawyer.
Adhikari also spoke about what he called “absurdities” in the plans for the Nijgadh airport, including the scale of the trees cut down to make way for the project, and claims that animals would “retreat into the forest from the runways when planes landed.”&nbsp;
Environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar, who was also part of the panel, also offered critique of Nepal’s environmental policies while championing electric public transport as a public good— reminding the audience that over half of the households, even in the Kathmandu Valley, do not own private vehicles.&nbsp;
Tuladhar also noted how environmental issues disproportionately affect some communities and groups over others. “Indoor pollution is a major part of air pollution in Nepal that directly affects women and children,” he said.
Tuladhar highlighted the economic and health costs of environmental issues such as pollution, reminding that air pollution costs the world 6% of its GDP —$8.1 trillion— every year, on healthcare costs.&nbsp;
Tuladhar asked: “What would we be willing to pay for an extra 1.2 years of life, which would be possible if the air pollution decreased by only 30%?”

The political economy of environment

Since returning from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, I have been asked repeatedly for my biggest takeaways. Among the most widely discussed issues this year was artificial intelligence – especially generative AI (‘GenAI’). With the recent adoption of large language models (ChatGPT) there is much hope – and hype – about what AI could do for productivity and economic growth in the future.
But our world is dominated far more by human stupidity than by artificial intelligence. The proliferation of <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/megathreats-remain-despite-moderation-of-pandemic-and-other-shocks-by-nouriel-roubini-2023-11">megathreats</a> – each an element in the broader ‘polycrisis’ – confirms that our politics are too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious and obvious risks to our future.
These include climate change, failed states which will make waves of climate refugees even larger, and recurrent virulent pandemics that could be even more economically damaging than Covid-19.&nbsp;
Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new cold wars such as between the United States and China, and into potentially explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the West Asia.&nbsp;
Around the world, rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalisation and labor-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy, creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political movements.
Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward protectionism, de-globalization, de-coupling, and de-dollarisation.
Moreover, the same brave new AI technologies that could contribute to growth and human welfare also have great destructive potential. They are already being used to push disinformation, deepfakes, and election manipulation into hyperdrive, as well as raising fears about permanent technological unemployment and even starker inequality. The rise of autonomous weapons and AI-augmented cyber-warfare is equally ominous.
Blinded by the dazzle of AI, Davos attendees did not focus on most of these megathreats. This came as no surprise. The WEF zeitgeist is, in my experience, a counter-indicator of where the world is really heading. Policymakers and business leaders are there to flog their books and spew platitudes. They represent the conventional wisdom, which is often based on a rear-window view of global and macroeconomic developments.
There is a very good chance that AI will indeed change the world in the coming decades. But the WEF’s focus on GenAI already seems misplaced, considering that the AI technologies and industries of the future will go far beyond these models. Consider, for example, the ongoing revolution in robotics and automation, which will soon lead to the development of robots with human-like features that can learn and multitask the way we do.
Or consider what AI will do for biotech, medicine, and ultimately human health and lifespans. No less intriguing are the developments in quantum computing, which will eventually merge with AI to produce advanced cryptography and cybersecurity applications.
The same long-term perspective also should be applied to climate debates. It is becoming increasingly likely that the problem will not be resolved with renewable energy – which is growing too slowly to make significant difference – or expensive technologies like carbon capture and sequestration and green hydrogen. Instead, we may see a fusion energy revolution, provided that a commercial reactor can be built in the next 15 years.&nbsp;
This abundant source of cheap, clean energy, combined with inexpensive desalination and agro-tech, would allow us to feed the ten billion people who will be living on the planet by the end of this century.
Similarly, the revolution in financial services will not be centered arounddecentralisedblockchains or cryptocurrencies. Rather, it will feature the kind of AI-enabled centralisedfintech that is already improving payment systems, lending and credit allocation, insurance underwriting, and asset management.&nbsp;
Materials science will lead to a revolution in new components, 3D-printing manufacturing, nanotechnologies, and synthetic biology. Space exploration and exploitation will help us save the planet and find ways to create extra-planetary modes of living.
These and many other technologies could change the world for the better, but only if we can manage their negative side effects, and only if they are used to resolve all the megathreats we face. One hopes that artificial intelligence someday will overcome human stupidity. But it will never get the chance if we destroy ourselves first.
©Project Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is author of <a href="https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/">Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them</a> (Little, Brown and Company, &nbsp;2022). <a href="https://nourielroubini.com/">NourielRoubini.com</a>

Artificial Intelligence vs Human Stupidity

For Nepalis, the year 2023 was marked by one scandal after another at home, while Nepalis found themselves in the middle of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepalis-in-the-russian-army-want-to-quit">active conflict zones</a> across the world both unintentionally and of their own volition.&nbsp;
The year began with Pushpa Kamal Dahal being Prime Minister for the third time with a promise of better governance. Even the opposition UML gave him a vote of confidence. The new <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls">RSP party’s Rabi Lamichhane</a> was in and out of the Cabinet, and finally decided to stay in the opposition.
Dahal's preoccupation during 2023 was to hold his fragile coalition together, despite having the Nepali Congress (NC) as an ideologically opposite partner. His government was rocked by a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-year-of-scandals">slew of corruption scandals </a>that led to the arrests of several senior officials across party lines, but the big fish eventually got away.&nbsp;
Nearly 800 Nepalis were promised entry into the US as fake Bhutanese refugees by government officials and traffickers. Property surrounding the Prime Minister’s residence was parcelled off to private buyers by the real estate mafia. Gold smuggling continues unabated at Kathmandu airport, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/crime-and-or-punishment-in-nepal">none of the kingpins ever get caught</a>.&nbsp;
Malaysian conglomerate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/axiata-may-find-breaking-up-hard-to-do">Axiata exited Nepal</a> after selling its majority stake in Ncell to a Singapore-based Nepali-origin businessman, which experts say would not have been possible without the involvement of top bureaucrats, regulators and politicians.
Despite the finance minister assuring us that the economy is “on the mend”, it <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-golden-age">stagnated some more</a> in 2023. Revenue collection was lower than projected, exports are at a record low, and 90,000 workers and students left Nepal in December alone. The government has been slow to promote electric transport even as petroleum import continues to soar.&nbsp;
In March, Dahal’s coalition government introduced the transitional justice amendment bill in the House. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-tj-bill-protects-perpetrators-shortchanges-survivors">conflict survivors, victims and human rights groups said it ignored their concerns</a>, the Supreme Court’s directive and flouted international law on war crimes.&nbsp;
The earthquake in western Nepal on 3 November left 153 dead and two months later survivors are living in tents in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/below-zero-at-ground-zero">sub-zero temperatures</a>. The disaster also exposed Nepal’s demographic shift: most fatalities were women from the poorest families since the men have migrated out.&nbsp;
Migration, as Nepali Times has highlighted in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/50-diaspora-diaries-in-nepali-times">50 instalments of its Diaspora Diaries</a>, is now the central reality of Nepal. A majority of families have members who have left to work, study, or settle abroad, and Nepal’s economy is propped up by the money they send home. The search for jobs has also led Nepalis to some of the world’s most dangerous regions.&nbsp;
There are said to be at least 700 Nepalis in the Russian Army, families have not heard from many of them, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/from-frying-pan-into-fire-for-nepalis-in-russian-army">7 have been killed on the Ukraine front</a>. Nepali human traffickers have been supplying mercenaries to Russia by flying them to Moscow on tourist visas. Four Nepalis have been captured by the Ukrainian military. &nbsp;
The Hamas attack on 7 October killed 10 Nepalis who had gone to Israel under the government’s Learn and Earn program, while <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/hamas-releases-thais-but-where-is-bipin">Nepali student Bipin Joshi</a>, who was taken hostage, is believed to remain in captivity. Israel’s ongoing brutal bombardment of Gaza has led to the deaths of nearly 21,000 Palestinians, with the US helping Israel to block a UN ceasefire. &nbsp;
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/burmese-of-nepali-descent-flee-to-thailand">Burmese of Nepali descent</a> have taken refuge in Thailand because of suppression by the military junta which staged a coup in Burma in 2021. Nepalis trafficked by a Chinese organised crime syndicate to work in call centres in Burma also need to be rescued. &nbsp;
UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited Nepal ahead of COP28 in Dubai to draw attention to the climate crisis and the Himalaya, but the summit <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/unabated-greenwashing-at-cop28">failed to commit </a>to an immediate phase-out of fossil fuels. Nepal’s pledges at COP28 do not correspond to its lack of progress in switching to renewable energy, saving remaining forests and controlling air pollution.&nbsp;

Shristi Karki

More of the same in 2024?

The so-called experts referred to in the article <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual">Business As Unusual</a> in the 22 September issue of Nepali Times by Ramesh Kumar, do not seem to have used their ‘expertise’ in making their observations. Their comments are thus simplistic and mutually contradictory.&nbsp;
If they were using a set of commonly accepted indicators and related verifiable data, their opinion could not be mutually so disparate. I know of no economist in Nepal worth the name who have defined the characteristics specific to Nepal economy and have come up with a theoretically defensible set of prescriptions for investment and economic development in the country.&nbsp;
Many of them masquerade as economists based on having acquired a degree, maybe, a PhD sometime in the past. Others after spending some time in the finance ministry as part of the musical chair of inter-ministry transfers in the bureaucracy.
Like most ‘observers’ in Nepal, these economists too dare to make profound-sounding observations based on what immediately meets their eyes.&nbsp;
For instance, this year they seem to be impressed by the size of the crowd visiting the NADA auto show in Kathmandu to claim that despite the nationwide clamour to the contrary, the economy is not really in a slump.&nbsp;
They are the mob economists who gauge the state of the economy by the size of the shoppers at New Road or Asan Tole.
Nepal's tragedy is that all governments headed by corrupt politicians have spent all their time and energy in defrauding the state and gullible citizens. Examples: massive scams like the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/losing-our-moral-compass">Fake Bhutanese Refugee</a> (KPO and SBD governments), <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/crime-and-or-punishment-in-nepal">Lalita Niwas</a> (MKN and BRB governments) and recent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-gets-gold-medal-for-corruption">gold smuggling</a> (PKD government).
Meanwhile the so-called ‘Planning Commission’ and other think tanks recycle what is already in writing. There is no accountability for their total lack of delivery from their writings.&nbsp;
Even at the cost of modesty, I must state that during my tenure in the government as a karmachari, I have had the distinction of innovating three major policy reforms: the institution of user groups, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities">forest user groups</a> and the mothers' groups and their Female Community Health Volunteers.
Together, these policies changed the face of our nation. &nbsp;As the saying goes, if you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there. That seems to be the fate of our planners, policy makers, self-styled economists and of course, corrupt politicians.
As things stand, as per recent agricultural survey, 62% of households remain in agriculture. A decade earlier in 2011, it was 71% whereas the sector's contribution to national GDP was only 34.3%.&nbsp;
The fact that only 12% farm households have had access to agriculture credit, &nbsp;a prime mover for development, and only 7% to agricultural grants, remains the most lethal of neglect to a sector on which so many people still depend.&nbsp;
This clearly suggests massive deprivation of a vast majority of the country's population through unemployment and underemployment, lack of sufficient land and their vastly unequal distribution.&nbsp;
While 4 million Nepalis plus a vast but unknown number <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/love-thy-neighbours">working in India</a> have migrated for income and employment, a 2018 survey showed that 900,000 people were actively looking for employment, and nearly 70% of them were in the age bracket between 15-34 years.&nbsp;
While Nepal's industrial sector remains miniscule, the irony is that sunflower, palm and soyabean oils remain the major export items. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Since none of those oilseeds are produced in Nepal</a>, it only shows that our investment regime remains totally divorced from even the rudimentary rule of economic development — the principle of comparative advantage. &nbsp;
The size of the crowd visiting the NADA auto show, is more the manifestation of the artificial nature of our industrial sector and remains the handiwork of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/inconvenient-truths">corrupt and incompetent politicians, bureaucrats and an unscrupulous business community</a> working in cahoots to profit from loopholes.&nbsp;
Indian economist Jayati Ghosh who teaches at MIT, wrote about the impact of inequality in her own country in 2022, ‘The pandemic brought home to us a hard truth. Unequal access to incomes and opportunities does more than create unjust, unhealthy and unhappy societies—it kills people.’&nbsp;
Then, Nobel laureate economists, Abhijit Banerjee and Esthe Duflo wrote in 2020: ‘Although no one knows when the growth locomotive will start in a given country, if and when it does, the poor will be more likely to hop on the train if they are in decent health, can read and write, and can think beyond their immediate circumstances.’
Which kleptocrat politician, bureaucrat, unprincipled economist, or hardcore politician disguised as civil society leader has thought of our problems in these terms?
Bihari Krishna Shrestha is an anthropologist and a former government secretary.
<a href="mailto:biharishrestha@gmail.com" target="_blank">biharishrestha@gmail.com</a>

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there

A Himal Khabar article last week set off a heated debate. Titled ‘Was Nepal better before?’, it showed that despite all the problems of the past four decades, the country had made remarkable socio-economic progress. But in Nepal’s polarised polity, monarchists argued that the country's present ills can be traced to the failure of multi-party democracy since 1990. Mainstream politicians, on the other hand, seemed relieved that things are not as bad as they look.&nbsp; Rabindra Mishra of the RPP tweeted: ‘Improvement at the speed of a turtle is only development for a society that is used to the velocity of a turtle. Development should be viewed holistically. Not just on the basis of some indicators.' Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Till debt do us part</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050624_2f88f8c36f0078a413e217577098ee7a4f3f528002b62857275f11aca3c5533a.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230630050624_2f88f8c36f0078a413e217577098ee7a4f3f528002b62857275f11aca3c5533a" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Now and Then NT"> <figcaption>A bus stop in Bhaktapur in June 2023 (left) and the same stop with a trolley bus in 1976 (right). Photos: GOPEN RAI (left), DANIEL W EDWARDS (right)</figcaption> </figure>  Mishra's party is for restoring the monarchy to ensure national unity, stability and development. Former king Gyanendra himself recently said that the country had made great progress during the 30 year Panchayat System, and Nepal could restore its past glory.&nbsp; But there were many others who argued that the partyless Panchayat was feudal and held the country back. Former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai posted: ‘Was Nepal better back then? Of course not, and it is better now. But it can be better still, and must be made better. Let us be future-oriented, not past-oriented.’&nbsp; A critical look at the past 50 years of development in Nepal tells a mixed story. In 1991, one in every two Nepalis was living below the poverty line. It is down to 15.1%.&nbsp; The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MDPI) based on health, education and quality of life also shows dramatic improvements. MDPI decreased significantly from 59% in 2006 to 17.4% in 2019.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-tax-system-widens-rich-poor-gap">Nepal’s tax system widens rich-poor gap</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050628_47d9357bd364d0ca8c41c5261c9ef1d07a75782f25d75f3c975dcfd4b2edf185.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230630050628_47d9357bd364d0ca8c41c5261c9ef1d07a75782f25d75f3c975dcfd4b2edf185" data-rendition-name="original" width="905" height="868" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then poverty NT"> </figure>  The Panchayat System was scrapped in 1990 after the People’s Movement, and the country replaced its absolute monarchy with a constitutional one. The Maoist conflict lasted from 1996-2006, and Nepal’s 240-year-old monarchy was abolished by the elected Constituent Assembly in 2008.&nbsp; Plotting Nepal’s development indicators on a timeline shows dramatic progress, but correlation does not mean causation. Average life-expectancy could have gone up even if Nepal had retained a constitutional monarchy. And Kathmandu’s rampant urbanisation and air pollution would probably be as bad if we still had a king. Per capita GDP was stagnant during the Panchayat, but started climbing in 1990, and by the time Nepal became a republic in 2008 it went up steeply. &nbsp;Since this was mainly driven by remittances, it would most likely have continued on that trajectory whatever system Nepal adopted after 1990. Per capita income is not an indicator of socio-economic equity, but it is a general measure of the average wealth of citizens. Nepal’s per capita income was $50 in 1960, when the world average was $459. Neighbouring India was at $83 and China was slightly higher at $89. In 1990, Nepal’s per capita climbed to $185, and it has now reached $1,399. What is noteworthy here is that the rate of income growth was very slow in the years before democracy during the Panchayat with an increase of just $94 (at constant 2015 rates) between 1960-90. “The argument that Nepal was better in the past is untrue,” says former Rastra Bank economist Keshav Acharya. “Nepal is behind many other countries for sure, but we have also seen progress in infrastructure, health, education, human development, communication, perhaps just not in public administration.” But, he adds: “The administration did not exploit people back in the Panchayat days, corruption was not as rampant. The opposite is true now with bureaucracy and political leaders apathetic to the people’s needs, widespread laxity and wrongdoing.”&nbsp; Indeed, even though family incomes in Nepal were lower in the second half of the past century, their needs were much less and most people lived in rural areas and were self-sufficient in food. However, Nepal’s progress in infrastructure was slow during the Panchayat. Although Nepal was the second country in Asia to install a hydroelectric plant in 1911 during the Rana regime, by the end of the Panchayat in 1990, Nepal was only generating 227MW.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_f101e04317e960dd5872e82a954a8668dc92d9a94345e1652adf8c860948d21b.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230630050632_f101e04317e960dd5872e82a954a8668dc92d9a94345e1652adf8c860948d21b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1052" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then electricity NT"> </figure>  It actually took the Electricity Act of 1992 and the advent of domestic and foreign investment in hydropower for generation to take off. Installed capacity has now increased to 2,700MW, and another 3,000MW worth of projects are under construction. Access to drinking water and sanitation has similarly improved. Only 6% of Nepali had access to drinking water in 1960 which increased to 36% in the next three decades. But it has now reached 95%, even though only a quarter of them have access to quality drinking water.&nbsp; The defining factors in measuring progress of any country is average life-expectancy, maternal and child health. In some ways, Nepal achieved dramatic gains in reducing maternal, child and infant mortality rates while significantly improving its immunisation, even though the progress has stalled in the last decade or so.&nbsp; The infant mortality rate is down to 21 per 1,000 births today from nearly 200 in 1960. Maternal mortality is also down from 239 per 100,000 deliveries, down from 850 as recently as 1990. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_4caae25156a2b7a77aad3752f1390e69ea3966a70f243c96d396adf97807e87c.png" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20230630050632_4caae25156a2b7a77aad3752f1390e69ea3966a70f243c96d396adf97807e87c" data-rendition-name="original" width="939" height="713" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then drinking water NT"> </figure>  This represents one of the steepest declines in maternal-child mortality of most countries in the world, and is a direct result of improvement in female literacy, better road access for institutional delivery and the work of Female Community Health Workers.&nbsp; In 1971, only 14 out of 100 people in Nepal were literate. In 1990 this was up to 40% and now it is 76%. In 1990, the primary school enrolment rate was 76%, now it is at 97%. But the quality of instruction and the disparity between public and private schools is more prominent than ever before. Back in 1990, there was only one hospital bed for every 9,146 Nepalis. Today, the ratio has improved to 1,821 – even though access and affordability of quality care are still issues. In fact, out-of-pocket medical bills are pushing even middle class Nepalis into poverty. Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) last year was 0.602, up from 0.399 in 1990. HDI takes into account several developmental factors including life expectancy, literacy, per capita and quality of life. Increasing the representation of women, Dalits and other communities in socio-political leadership granted by the 2015 Constitution is another sign of socio-economic development in Nepal. Women make up 33% of the MPs and most of the deputy mayors across the country are female, even though many were proportionally elected or represent the quota system. Much needs to be done to achieve inclusion that reflects the true diversity of the country. One could argue that much of this progress would have happened regardless of which governing system was in place. Some consider the current progress to be a natural result of changes in the global economy and politics, technological advancement and contemporary changes. Economic and political analyst Dipak Gyawali thinks that the reason for the improvement in areas such as education, health and poverty is not the change in the system, but the remittances sent by Nepalis abroad.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">State-sponsored economic crisis</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230630050632_f12b0216cb12dd4d99e7abb007ae61cc1b88862c67644a49ebb017eb5e34c415.png" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20230630050632_f12b0216cb12dd4d99e7abb007ae61cc1b88862c67644a49ebb017eb5e34c415" data-rendition-name="original" width="940" height="865" loading="lazy" alt="Now and then Life expectancy NT"> </figure>  “There has been improvement in various sectors due to remittances, which have reached a quarter of the GDP, but political parties have created a false narrative that the improvement is due to the multiparty system,” says Gyawali, who served as Water Resource Minister in 2005. Even so, the contribution of an open society and an open market brought about by democracy cannot be ignored. Foreign employment itself became accessible following the restoration of democracy. During the Panchayat period, passports were difficult for ordinary citizens to get. &nbsp; “During the Panchayat period, those who studied abroad used to return to the country. Now the youth have no faith and hope for the country, it seems that only the youth who cannot go abroad live in Nepal,” says Gyawali. Economist Acharya blames it on self-centeredness of Nepal’s political leadership, saying that the feckless lack of accountability have led the public to believe that there has been no improvement whatsoever in the country, thus giving rise to populist politicians. He adds: “It is not that nothing is happening, but it appears to the public as if the future is hopeless because leaders are not accountable to the people." Statistics confirm that Nepal has made progress, but the pace of economic development has been much slower than in the neighbourhood. Nepal’s per capita income in 1960 was $50 while in then-East Pakistan it was US$85. Today, Bangladesh’s per capita income has reached $2,458. India is at $2,257. And China has outperformed all others from a mere $89 in 1960 to $12,556 today. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">Institutionalised inequality</a>, Editorial

Now and then

Recent outrage in Sikkim over an Indian Army expedition climbing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga">Kangchenjunga</a>, the world’s third-highest peak, has spiked attention to the need to balance mountaineering jobs with indigenous reverence for sacred landmarks. Kangchenjunga (8,586m) is not a peak as much as it is a mountain range with 16 peaks above 7,000m on the border between India and Nepal -- the word itself means ‘five treasures of the snows’ in Tibetan. Some of the highest prominences like Kangchenjunga West and Kangbachen are in Nepal, while the Main, Central and South Peaks are on the border. Climbing the peak from the Indian side has been banned since 2001 because the indigenous Lepcha community there regard the mountain as the abode of Dzoe-nga, the patron deity of Sikkim, which was an independent Himalayan Kingdom until it was annexed by India in 1975.&nbsp; Buddhists in Sikkim say their saint, Padmasambhava, recognised the mountain as a protective spirit. The state has declared the base of the mountain Kangchenjunga National Park, which covers an area one-third of Sikkim. ‘The act of scaling this sacred peak is not only a matter of serious concern but also a violation of both the prevailing legal provisions and the deeply held religious beliefs of the people of Sikkim,’ read a letter from Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang (Golay) to Amit Shah, India’s Minister of Home Affairs and Cooperation.&nbsp; Tamang continued: ‘We further request Your Honour to take up the issue with the Government of Nepal to ensure that no future expeditions are permitted on the sacred mountain, in deference to the deeply held beliefs and cultural values of the people of Sikkim.’ Kangchenjunga was climbed for the first time exactly 70 years ago by a British team who told King Tashi Namgyal, the Choegyal of Sikkim, that they would not set foot on the summit. Since then, there have been about 532 successful climbs of the peaks and 52 have died while trying.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1782" height="1178" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Indigenous communities in Sikkim held purification ceremonies following the Indian expedition to Kangchenjunga. Photo: THE VOICE OF SIKKIM / FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-climbing-season-2025-s4abrxny">This spring climbing season</a> alone, there were 70 climbing permits for foreigners issued for Kangchenjunga by the Nepal government, and made it to the top while one French climber died.&nbsp; One of the expeditions this year was an Indian Army team led by Col Ranveer Jamwal, who has summited the highest peaks on all seven continents, and Mt Everest thrice. Jamwal’s team was on the final leg of a ‘<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/nimas-summits-mt-kangchenjunga-concludes-historic-har-shikhar-tiranga-mission-successfully/articleshow/121341315.cms?from=mdr">Har Shikhar Tiranga</a>’ (The Tricolour on Every Peak) mission to plant the Indian flag at the highest points of each of India’s 28 states. Kanchenjunga was the last peak they had left, and the hardest, but the expedition put five climbers on the summit. What seems to have incensed the Sikkimese is that while it has banned climbing the mountain from its side, it was an Indian military expedition that went to Nepal to climb the mountain. After news broke of the climb in May, the Sikkim Indigenous Lepcha Tribal Association asked people to observe purification ceremonies in temples across the state. Mayalmit Lepcha of the association acknowledged that the Sikkim government was also partly at fault: “I don’t think such an expedition could have gone forward without the state government being informed, so it could have done something to intervene. It shows weakness. What’s done is done, all we can do is carry out these sanctification ceremonies.”&nbsp; In 2000, one year before Sikkim’s ban, the state allowed an Austrian team to attempt Kanchenjunga’s northeast face for a fee of $20,000, on agreement that they would stop 10m before the summit. Despite this, there was outrage over the expedition on the grounds that it violated Indian laws regarding the defiling of religious sites and Sikkim’s rights to maintain its culture after merging with India. The Indian Army expedition was also seen to have circumvented Sikkim’s law and violated religious sensibilities by going through Nepal. While the team may have thought they were respecting Sikkim’s beliefs by finding a way to complete the mission, the people of Sikkim saw it as defilement.&nbsp; The somber mood of the Sikkim people at the ritual contrasts sharply with Jamwal’s sense of accomplishment. “Without a doubt, the most difficult summit of my life,” he told reporters after the climb. “It tested every ounce of our will.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157" data-rendition-name="original" width="787" height="377" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Prayer flags along the Sikkim-Kangchenjunga trekking route. Photo: TREKKINGININDIA.COM</figcaption> </figure>  The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-nims-purja">controversial Nepali-British mountaineer Nirmal Purja</a> was also on Kangchenjunga this spring the mountain, on a mission to summit all 14 8,000m peaks for a third time. He echoed Jamwal about the tough conditions: “The conditions above camp were extremely tough, with deep snow and challenging terrain—more crevasses than usual.” Nepal’s government has not said anything publicly, but it is unlikely that it will ban climbing on Kangchenjunga, since it is becoming popular with expeditions because of its technical challenges, and overcrowding on Mt Everest. Nepal does have bans in place for some of its mountains out of respect for local beliefs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/to-open-machapuchre-for-mountaineering-or-not">Mt Machapuchre</a> (6,990m) the imposing pyramid that looms over Pokhara, for example, is seen as an icon of purity by the Gurung people and a symbol of Vishnu by the Hindu communities who live at its base. A strict climbing ban has been in place since 1957, when a British expedition led by Col Jimmy Roberts stopped 45m short of the summit – either because the last bit was too difficult or out of deference to local sentiments.&nbsp; Khumbila that stands above Namche Bazar is only 5,761m high, but like Kanchenjunga is considered the protector deity of the Sherpa people. Gauri Shankar on the Nepal-China border, called Chomo Tseringma by the local community, was off-limits between 1965 and 1979 due to its association with Lord Shiva and Gauri, his consort. Although expeditions are now allowed, there are not too many takers. In Tibet, climbing Mount Kailash is prohibited by the Chinese government because it revered by the Hindus, Buddhists and followers of the Bon faith. Even Mt Everest is regarded as sacred, and its Sherpa name is Chomolungma, Goddess Mother of the Earth.&nbsp; Economically, climbs on Kanchenjunga bring in decent revenue. This climbing season, the 41 permits, at $1,800 each, brought in $73,800. This is somewhat comparable to Makalu, Lhotse, and Annapurna I, but these numbers are dwarfed by the $4 million in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-everest-industry">Everest permits</a>. Revenue from Kanchenjunga climbing permits is something Nepal could potentially forgo if necessary, but the expeditions also provide jobs to hundreds of high altitude guides, porters, base camp support staff and other logistical costs.&nbsp; As the third highest mountain in the world and the tallest in India, there will always be significant motivation to climb it from the Nepal side, especially as climbers are drawn by the technical climbing at high altitude.

Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb?

The debate about who is less accountable to the public: politicians or bureaucrats is as old as Nepal’s democracy itself.
Some blame politicians for being beholden to the businessmen who finance their electoral campaigns, and are forced to return the favour with contracts and kickbacks when in power.&nbsp;
Others say it is civil servants who are neither civil nor servants, and know the inner workings of the system to exploit loopholes – they then teach ministers, MPs, mayors, or ward chairs which juicy projects can be squeezed. And everyone gets their share.
In reality, it is probably not a case of either, or. Both have their hands deep in the honey pot. Corruption is now such a given that yet another exposé in the mainstream press, like the latest visit-visa scam, does not raise eyebrows anymore.
We may have to edit Lord Acton’s famous quote to say that in Nepal we do not even need absolute power to corrupt absolutely. The ruling cartel has divvied up the spoils, so that no one ever faces charges. The three parties all know about the skeletons rattling in each other’s closets, and they cancel each other out.
Politicians and bureaucrats get all the blame for taking bribes, but what of the givers of bribes? In this crony capitalism, businesses invariably need political patrons in an elaborate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">national network of give-and-take</a>.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">Politicians and businesses work hand-in-glove</a> so that conflict of interest in contracts, insider trading, cartelling, and non-performing assets of banks become the norm. Our survey after the 2017 local election showed that out of the 753 newly-elected local government chairs, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/elected-contractors" target="_blank">nearly 300 were contractors</a> involved in sand-mining, quarrying, or transportation syndicates.
Nepal’s tycoons have discovered that instead of donating to election war chests of politicians, it is a much surer return on investment to spend the money to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal" target="_blank">become legislators and politicians themselves</a>.
In democracies, there are checks and balances to control corruption when it becomes endemic. The Nepal Police and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are supposed to do the detective work without political interference. The courts are required to be independent in dispensing justice and punishing crooks.
But the less said about the judiciary the better. A writ petition in the Supreme Court last week accused our sister magazine <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> of contempt of court for two stories: one about how high courts have been overturning a majority of verdicts of district courts in cases of rape, and another about the Biratnagar High Court clearing a self-proclaimed holy man, Krishna Bahadur Giri, of rape despite police presenting physical evidence.
The doctrine of the separation of powers stipulates that it is when the other three pillars in a democracy are compromised that the role of the free press becomes even more vital. The world over, as soon as populist autocrats are elected to the executive, their first order of business is to co-opt the legislature and the judiciary. Then they buy off, intimidate, or neutralise the media with Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPP).
Nepal’s officialdom seems to be taking midnight Zoom lessons from other despots on how to gag the media. Last month, popular talk show host Dil Bhushan Pathak was served an arrest warrant by the Kathmandu District Court for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CntsnTrtG8" target="_blank">a YouTube explainer</a> about the alleged involvement of the son of Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana in a reported purchase of Kathmandu’s Hilton Hotel.
The Lalitpur District Court ruled that Pathak could not be arrested without fair trial, but this week the Kathmandu District Court filed another case against the journalist based on a complaint by the Cyber Bureau, and put him on a fugitive list.&nbsp;
Without going into the veracity of Pathak’s explainer, it is deeply problematic that the Electronic Transaction Act has been invoked – proof that politicians are getting the courts and investigating agencies to make an example of a high profile journalist.&nbsp;
The intention is to silence media investigations into the fake refugee scandal in which the main partner in the ruling coalition is implicated, and in which one of its former home ministers was jailed last year.
The Kathmandu High Court has been mysteriously active in targeting journalists these days. <a href="https://bizmandu.com/" target="_blank">Bizmandu</a> and <a href="https://nepalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">Nepalkhabar</a> were served a notice last month <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-freedom-after-expression-y4inku06" target="_blank">to withdraw a story they did</a> on the Chair of the <a href="https://www.sebon.gov.np/" target="_blank">Security and Exchange Board of Nepal (SEBON</a>) Santosh Narayan Shrestha allegedly demanding kickbacks from hydropower investors.&nbsp;
Incredibly, the court even asked the two portals not to report on the subject anymore – a ruling so absurd that the Patan High Court overturned it a week later.&nbsp;
The allegations against Shrestha were made in a public meeting of the <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN)</a>, and MPs demanded a <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/parliament-demands-probe-into-sebon-chairman-over-alleged-commission-demand-40-32.html" target="_blank">Parliament inquiry</a> into the regulator. <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/144523/santosh-narayan-shrestha" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> reported this week that while Shrestha was reportedly demanding commissions from private investors for IPOs, he cleared primary share sales in Bajhang’s 10.75MW <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Bungal Hydro</a> in which his family members have investments, company records show.
And then just on Monday, bureaucrats hoodwinked MPs by deleting references in a bill requiring a two-year ‘cooling off’ period under which retiring civil servants could be barred from holding constitutional positions for two years.
The contest for who is more corrupt: bureauacrats, politicians, or the private sector is on.
Kunda Dixit

SLAPPing Democracy

In 2023, northern India suffered record-breaking heat. In 2024, it broke its own record. In 2025, the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Nepal Tarai suffered a prolonged pre-monsoon heat wave and humidity, forcing closure of schools and workplaces. This week, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/europe-heat-wave-intensifies-as-fresh-warnings-issued/live-73108302">southern Europe is suffering the worst heat wave</a> since temperature records began. Football matches, tennis tournaments have been affected, and tourist sites have been closed off. Qatar has ordered a midday work curfew for Nepali and other migrant workers are the maximum temperature this week touched 45°C.&nbsp; Kathmandu Valley experienced its highest temperature in 25 years in May 2024 at 35.3°C. This year, the maximum temperature exceeded 30°C on many days — heat that till a decade ago would be considered unusual. Rains in early June also meant that towns in the mountains sweltered under high heat plus humidity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1935" height="801" loading="lazy" alt="maximum average temperature in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: DHM</figcaption> </figure>  Measuring just temperature does not give a true picture of how hot it is. When humidity is factored in, the heat index this summer has been much higher in northern India and Nepal. Also, the hotter the air temperature the higher the concentration of water vapour in it. “We feel it is getting hotter, and our statistics back that up,” says Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issued two heat wave warnings this year, compared to 11 last year. “We need more research to analyse how humidity is make this situation worse.” <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-faces-alarming-30-rise-in-moist-heat-stress-over-40-years-affecting-wide-swath-of-country-imd-study/articleshow/109376863.cms?from=mdr">A recent analysis</a> by the Indian Meteorological Department has found that heat stress in that country has increased by nearly 30% over the past 40 years. Similarly, India’s Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) noted that cities like Delhi, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and Lucknow have experienced a 6-9% rise in relative humidity in the last decade.&nbsp; It also states that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/majority-indian-districts-face-high-heatwave-risk-study-shows-2025-05-20/#:~:text=%22About%2057%20per%20cent%20of,usual%20number%20of%20heatwave%20days.">60% of Indian districts</a>, home to three-quarters of the country’s 1.3 billion people face a high to very high risk from extreme heat, with rising night-time temperatures and humidity. The heat index is also called ‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">wet-bulb temperature</a>’ and is a measure of how hot the human body feels when humidity levels are also high — usually much hotter than the recorded temperature. For example, a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C is considered the maximum limit of heat and humidity that humans can handle, beyond which the body cannot cool by perspiration, leading to death. One indicator of increasing humidity is a rise in average minimum temperature, and Nepal recorded the highest figure since 1981 last year, with a peak of 15.8°C. Higher minimum temperature denotes warmer nights, which in turn is an indication of heat stress caused by increasing humidity, which in turn is a result of global warming. Aside from higher average temperatures worldwide this year, what makes heat and humidity more unbearable is that cities are always hotter than their surroundings. This is due to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/preparing-for-kathmandu-s-heat-waves">urban heat island (UHI) effect</a> – for example the temperature inside Kathmandu’s Ring Road can be hotter by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/what-are-heat-islands">up to 4°C during the daytime and by 1 to 3°C in the evening</a> compared to the outskirts. “Climate change is one reason for rising temperature, but there are other factors like increased heat in urban spaces due to concrete buildings and infrastructure, emissions from vehicles, industries, and home appliances,” explains urban planner Bhushan Tuladhar. He adds: “Much of this comes down to how we have developed our cities, not just our roads and buildings but also our water system, waste management, culture and customs as well as economy.” There is a feedback loop at work: as it gets hotter, more energy is used for fans, coolers, and air-conditioners which in turn add to the urban heat bubble. The way to reduce the UHI effect is to have more parks, tree-lined streets and water bodies to cool cities down.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212095525002093">A recent study published in the journal Urban Climate</a> by Nepali researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Tribhuvan University, University of Groningen, etc showed that even within Kathmandu, urban forests cooled neighbourhoods by as much as 1.2°C while ponds reduced the temperature by up to 0.85°C compared to nearby houses.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2580" height="1038" loading="lazy" alt="urban heat island in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: URBAN CLIMATE et al.</figcaption> </figure>  ‘Our results demonstrate that blue-green spaces provide significant cooling benefits across the Kathmandu Valley, with distinct patterns by type, size, design, and urban context,’ concluded the paper, whose lead author is Saurav Bhattarai at Jackson State University in the United States. The old towns in Kathmandu Valley with traditional brick and tile architecture, ponds and trees managed hot summers better. Compact houses around a courtyard gave people just the right amount of sunlight, and use of clay mortar and bricks insulated houses in winter while cooling them in summer. There were open spaces, fertile land along the floodplains for farming, and brick pavements that allowed for seepage. “Our cities were planned taking nature into account,” says Sangeeta Singh, a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering. “Kathmandu Valley is now built up, but we can still reintegrate blue-blue spaces into town planning with vertical gardening, urban forestry, using local material and harvesting rainwater.”&nbsp; Kathmandu’s municipalities have by-laws controlling building design and structure, but strict enforcement of land use and zoning are missing. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the urban poor who may not have access to fans or air-conditioners, exacerbating poverty.&nbsp; Cities in the plains have it even worse. As heat and humidity rise simultaneously, it could <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/garmi-se-behal-chalo-nepal">reverse the current mass migration</a> of people from the mountains to the Tarai, where 53% of Nepal’s population lives. <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/92fbbbc6180238e18e7b239fad83e38a-0280032024/original/12-DHNT-Temperature-poverty-inequality-September-2024.pdf">A World Bank study</a> put the cost of a 1°C rise in temperature at 17.1% increase in poverty globally. Estimates put the total number of urban poor in developing countries exposed to the worst heat extremes at 26 million presently, this number is bound to grow to 215 million by mid-century, an over eight-fold increase. Meanwhile, 489,000 health-related deaths occur each year, 45% of them in Asia alone. “Heat has to be seen from a class perspective,” says Singh. “Those with money can afford gadgets and appliances to keep their homes and offices cool, but not day labourers or poor families living in cramped housing with poor ventilation.” Climate breakdown is going to widen the class divide in cities, as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">summers become unliveable</a>. Says Singh: “We need policy intervention to address this class injustice. Our building by-laws and new town development must urgently integrate climate and energy efficiency elements.”

In the heat of the moment

The sudden and massive flood on the Bhote Kosi early Tuesday morning washed away a strategic bridge on Nepal’s main border crossing with China for trade, tourists and pilgrims. Slurry from the nearly 10m high debris flow left 9 dead and 20 missing, 12 of them Nepalis and six Chinese nationals. Fifty-five &nbsp;others were rescued.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mapping-kangchenjunga-glacial-flood-risk">Mapping Kangchenjung glacial flood risk</a>, Gabe Allen Four hydropower plants Rasuwagadi, Trisuli III, Trisuli and Benighat have sustained damage, taking out 200MW of Nepal’s power supply – approximately 8% of the total. Over 100 cargo trucks parked on the Nepal side of the border as well as 50 newly imported Chinese electric cars at the Timure Dry Port were swept away. Officials had estimated that the Bhote Kosi river had flooded due to heavy rain in the Tibetan region in the immediate aftermath of the flooding. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) have revised initial statements.&nbsp; NDRRMA spokesperson Suresh Sunar said it was too early to tell, but the Bhote Kosi flood was most likely the result of at least one glacial lake outburst in Tibet. Bhote Kosi begins on the north slope of the Ganesh Himal near the Nepal-China border, and its tributary Lende drains the catchment area north of Langtang. The flood on tuesday was on the Lende (map).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250709110720_bbc99c5f3e3d61a3d340892e0273fee3605a8d334a2beb354126137bcf0c8d27.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250709110720_bbc99c5f3e3d61a3d340892e0273fee3605a8d334a2beb354126137bcf0c8d27" data-rendition-name="original" width="629" height="759" loading="lazy" alt="Bhote Kosi flood map"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250709110720_39e2f574ff8c12cecda2e5a999d2ba8a0310f599f6b2261dcad7dd43f94df2a1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250709110720_39e2f574ff8c12cecda2e5a999d2ba8a0310f599f6b2261dcad7dd43f94df2a1" data-rendition-name="original" width="997" height="613" loading="lazy" alt="Bhote Kosi flood map"> </figure>  “Preliminary study suggest that the disaster was not caused by rain in Tibet, but by a glacial lake burst, or another accident,” says Kamal Ram Joshi of the DHM. The level of water at a self-monitoring station in Timure in Rasuwa increased by 3.5m at 3:10AM on Tuesday morning while 13km downstream in Syabrubesi, the level rose by 3.65m at 3:30AM. The same station recorded 5.37m ten minutes later, after which it stopped giving a reading, possibly because the station was also washed away. The flood reached <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/neither-side-lost-both-sides-won">Betrawati</a> by 5AM, and some of the debris flow reached Mugling during Tuesday. DHM’s Flood Forecasting Division noted that there was no major precipitation in the Bhote Kosi watershed in Nepal and China in the 24 hours preceding the flood.&nbsp; It added that it was obtaining satellite images to find out the exact cause of the flood, suspecting that &nbsp;either one or several glacial lakes in three valleys in the headwaters of the Lende in Tibet burst. The river meets the Bhote Kosi on the Nepal-China checkpoint in Rasuwa.&nbsp; “Analysis of weather forecasts and satellite data shows the Tibet region did not receive enough rain to cause this scale of flooding— it is not a region that typically receives heavy flooding,” explains Binod Pokharel, associate professor of hydrology and meteorology at Tribhuvan University. “The flood could have been caused by a GLOF, a man-made lake burst, or an infrastructure-related accident upstream.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100724_313a684b65fc5317064779e47409a40f2bbce2c0c84db995e7f8fc6e1c142105.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250708100724_313a684b65fc5317064779e47409a40f2bbce2c0c84db995e7f8fc6e1c142105" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="1662" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood"> <figcaption>The Miteri bridge before it was swept away by the flood in Bhotekosi on the Nepal-China border. Photo: SUBASH DHUNGANA / RSS</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100732_ec43f13bae979f7b61bc0db939db4157dc93d3f0767ed527f564bd5c3d12be27.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250708100732_ec43f13bae979f7b61bc0db939db4157dc93d3f0767ed527f564bd5c3d12be27" data-rendition-name="original" width="720" height="432" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood NT 2"> <figcaption>The bridge after the flood.</figcaption> </figure>  Two weeks before Tuesday’s flood, Chinese officials had reportedly warned the Rasuwa District Administration in Nepal to be prepared for flooding, particularly along rivers that originate in Tibet. “It is not possible to predict the kind of rainfall that will cause flooding two to three weeks before the event,” Pokharel explains. “The fact that the notice to take precaution was issued weeks ago raises the doubt that the flood might have been caused by a manmade accident.” However, Rasuwa’s Assistant Chief District Officer Dhruv Prasad Adhikari says that there had been no communication from the Chinese side about possible flood in recent days, either formally or informally. Chinese officials at the border did not share what caused a flood on this scale, he adds.&nbsp; “The Chinese Embassy has said the cause is unknown that it will coordinate with Nepal to find the cause," Adhikari tells us.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100736_1710142917b30d4f85b343ed52743554d723db918c708f0bade8a0491ba999b2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250708100736_1710142917b30d4f85b343ed52743554d723db918c708f0bade8a0491ba999b2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1001" height="500" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood"> </figure>  The sharing real-time trans-boundary rainfall and river flow data would be crucial in early warning about the risk and consequences of GLOFs ahead of time, and reduce human loss. But Nepali officials say China has been reluctant to share weather-related information and data not just in this disaster, but in the past as well. “There is no mechanism or system in place for us to obtain hydrological and meteorological data of the Tibetan region,” says DHM Director General Joshi. There is a lack of information about glacial lakes in China that drain into rivers that flow into Nepal like the Lende and Bhote Kosi.&nbsp; The Himalaya is melting twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a phenomenon called ‘elevation dependent warming’, and receding glaciers have led to an increasing number of transboundary GLOFs.&nbsp; According to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">a 2018 ICIMOD study</a>, of the 47 of the most dangerous lakes that threaten Nepal, 25 are on glaciers in China, 21 in Nepal and one in India. One of the authors of the report, glacial lake expert Samjwal Bajracharya, says that the report was prepared based on data from 2015. But climate change has accelerated since then. Moreover, there is also an added risk of seismic activities that further destabilise the landscape, adding to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting">GLOF risk</a>. “Considering the rapid rate of snowmelt and consequent increase in size of Himalayan glaciers, studies should be conducted every year, and a monitoring system should be set up on the glaciers,” says Bajracharya. “However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in the Himalaya in a decade, which has been our biggest weakness.” &nbsp;&nbsp;

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