<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058739c7e80680e0ce1a4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Chinimaya lama with her two children. All photos: ANITA BHETWAL</figcaption></figure>Chinimaya Lama, 30, cannot walk up the slope to fetch water for her livestock. Her lower abdomen hurts and she has difficulty sitting down. At home she looks after her husband and five children.She went to a health post six months ago, but the staff there did not even have painkillers. Lama has a uterine problem and cannot afford to go to a city hospital to have it treated.Every few years at election time, political leaders campaigning house-to-house come by to the village of Syaule promising to upgrade its health post. This year, too, the candidates have trooped in, but residents of this scenic village with 52 households have heard it all before.Lama’s neighbours Pemsang, Rammaya, Dilmaya and Kanchi Tamang all have uterine problems like her, caused by multiple pregnancies, hard work in the fields and poor nutrition. None of them have access to diagnosis or treatment.“Candidates asking for votes would have got a much better response if they had also come up with health camps for women and brought medicines for us,” adds Lama, bundling grass for her cows.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058779c7e80680e0ce1a5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>As in other parts of rural Nepal, there is little excitement about the 20 November elections in Syaule, which is a 4 hour drive northeast of Kathmandu. There is a look of quiet dejection and much grimacing, when residents are asked if they will vote.“From before I was born, we have faced lack of water, proper medical care and joblessness. When these candidates come asking for votes, I just get furious,” says Wakab Tamang, 80, scowling through his wrinkles.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/">Depending on independents</a>, Shristi Karki<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/6390587b9c7e80680e0ce1a6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="372" height="355"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/6390587d9c7e80680e0ce1a7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058809c7e80680e0ce1a8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Syaule villagers have therefore collectively decided to boycott the 20 November elections. Says Chinimaya Lama: “I would rather go to my daily job and earn a few hundred rupees to buy food for my children instead of wasting my time voting for leaders who do nothing for us.”Residents of the adjacent village of Sanghachok have also decided not to vote. Mishri Lama, too, has faced water scarcity for three generations.“They tell us we will get water but it is only because the election is here and they want our votes,” says Lama. “They act as if we are family at election time, and then abandon us. No, we are not voting.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058849c7e80680e0ce1a9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1122"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Springs going dry due to over-extraction and climate change is a problem across Nepal’s mid-mountains, but is especially acute in ridge-top settlements like Syaule and Sanghachok.Dhan Bahadur Tamang spent thousands of rupees to fit a tap a few years ago, only to find that the spring had gone dry. No politician came to help. “I won’t even open the door for these candidates when they come by, I’m sick of them,” he adds.Last year’s monsoon floods destroyed the main road from Chautara, and there has been an effort to repair the landslides which children have to make a dangerous traverse every day on their way to school and back.“For me the word politician is synonymous with inaction,” says Mishri Lama.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058889c7e80680e0ce1aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Pema Rinchi Sherpa had actively campaigned in the 2017 election for Mohan Bahadur Basnet who is now contesting from Sindhupalchok-2, but after repeatedly being denied a meeting with the man to discuss road and water issues, he has learned his lesson.“I won’t be voting for these leaders who just want power in Kathmandu,” he says. Basnet is contesting again from the governing coalition against Sher Bahadur Tamang of the opposition UML.In the village of Dumre between Sun Kosi and Indrawati rivers, many residents do not have land ownership rights despite having lived here for generations owing to a random border division three decades ago.People here have homes in Sindhupalchok but many got their citizenship from Kavre. Two brothers from the same family have to go to different constituencies in different districts to cast their votes.“We have been living here from the time of our forefathers but we have fallen between the cracks,” says Khadga Bahadur Pahari (pictured below). “It does not matter how many times we voted in the past, no one has ever heard us. So we won’t vote at all this time.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/6390588b9c7e80680e0ce1abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="997">Dumre is home to 60 Majhi fisher families who have lost their livelihoods because of an illegal sand and boulder mining operation owned by a businessman with political patronage. They too are not going to bother voting this time.Masali Majhi cannot fish anymore, and has lost her income because of the ‘crusher’ operation. She says: “What is the point of voting for these people who do not care for us?”Ward chair Roshan Giri was elected in the local polls in May, and Sunday’s elections are for federal and provincial assemblies. UML candidate Sher Bahadur Tamang says he will resolve the fishing crisis by building a reservoir on the Sun Kosi and stopping illegal sand mining.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/6390588f9c7e80680e0ce1acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But these promises do not impress many locals who are boycotting the polls. They may not know all the candidates, but they know they have not performed in the past. They are punishing their inaction by exercising their right not to vote.By doing this, they are also rejecting younger candidates and independent hopefuls. Locals do not seem to be very impressed with the choice of alternative candidates either, or much informed.The governing coalition’s Mohan Basnet says he will amend the law if required if he wins the election. He says: “I will help the fisher people if I am elected. They should give me one more chance.”But at least in these villages of Sindhupalchok it looks like the residents feel they have already given the candidates one too many chances.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/election-climate-in-nepal/">Election climate in Nepal</a>, Shilshila Acharya<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/battle-of-ballots/">Battle of ballots</a>, Shristi Karki

Anita Bhetwal

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Dejected voters reject polls

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058669c7e80680e0ce19ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1504" height="1000"/>As Nepal enters the last lap in federal and provincial races, candidates and their cadres seem more excited than voters. Across the Inner Tarai here and in the plains bordering India, voters are disillusioned and indifferent about the polls.First off, most people we talked to said they did not want to vote for the same old candidates they elected five years ago, and have been around for the past two decades. Moreover, there is confusion about which candidate is representing which party, and who is loyal to whom, because the coalition is made up of parties with diametrically opposing ideologies.With such unholy alliances, Hetuada’s UML voters are now being asked to cast ballots in favour of a candidate batting for a return of the Hindu monarchy. Nepali Congress (NC) supporters have been told to vote for Maoist candidates, some of whom tortured and killed people during the conflict.Voters have given up trying to fathom why political parties and candidates who fought and suffered for the establishment of a secular, federal Nepal now cross over to those want to scrap those provisions. Individuals contesting the elections as independents because they did not get party tickets have muddied the waters even more.Except for die-hard party supporters, the electorate understands that the elections are not about principles or resolving everyday problems any more, but propelling the same old leaders back to power.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/election-climate-in-nepal/">Election climate in Nepal</a>, Shilshila Acharya“The NC is likely to get a good number of seats in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-politics-of-province-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhes Province</a>, but independents have a strong chance in some constituencies,” predicts Govinda Devkota of Narayani Samudayik FM in Birganj, who thinks the JSP partnership with the NC could garner 10-12 seats with the UML-LSP alliance and Unified Socialists trailing.The dominant trend is that Madhes-based parties like the JSP and LSP have lost their lustre, and the established national parties like the NC, UML and Maoists now hold sway over the Madhes vote through their alliances. Still, among younger voters there is visible discontent against both Madhes-based parties and the national parties, and they are fed up of electing the same underperforming and corrupt leaders again and again.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058699c7e80680e0ce19fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="372" height="355">“During the Madhes Movement (of 2015) many people here were killed but their sacrifice got us nothing. Only the leaders and political parties are reaping the benefits all in the name of Madhes,” says Munna Saraaf, a youth activist and actor in Birganj.Saraaf has been travelling to Ilam, Kohalpur and several other places performing on stage to raise awareness about voting the right candidates to power, and is also vocal about extravagant campaign spending which could make the Madhes a hotbed for corruption.“There are no new educational organisations, employment opportunities, projects or industries where the youth can be involved productively. It was better during the king’s time. But we must change that and cast our votes for competent candidates,” he adds.The coveted Parsa constituency has Pradeep Yadav, the former minister from JSP contesting against the governing coalition’s Laxman Lal Karna of LSP, and the rebel independent candidate who defected from the NC, Ajay Dwivedi.“Pradeep Yadav won five years ago but his voters are not happy with his performance. Karna, does not have the leadership qualities. Therefore voters may end up supporting the independent Dwivedi,” says Gobinda Devkota.The participation of women candidates is even less in the Tarai than the already low national average. In Parsa district, only Karima Begum who is contesting as an independent and the JSP’s Salma Khatun have a significant presence. “The others are neither heard nor seen,” says Sushma Sharma a reporter with Prateek Daily in Birganj.But the 2022 Nepal election is defined by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electoral coalitions</a> regardless of party ideology or dogma. Anjali Thapa, president of Press Center Makwanpur in Hetauda says: “The campaigning methods and the agenda in this year’s election are very different. Both the ruling coalition and the opposition have formed alliances to win.”For example, Kamal Thapa of the RPP-N is contesting under the UML’s ‘Sun’ symbol. Pitted against him is Mahalaxmi Upadhyaya (Dina) from the governing coalition who is expected to gather votes from both the Maoists, NC and the US. Even so, some NC supporters who do not agree with the alliance with the Maoists could go over to Kamal Thapa’s side, while other UML dissidents may not support a candidate they regard as an oppressor of the people.All this points to a mixed outcome which could lead to further instability and horse-trading post elections. At the end of the day, all most voters want are competent and honest leaders who provide jobs, better infrastructure and affordable education and medical facilities. They could not care less about alliances.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/battle-of-ballots/">Battle of ballots</a>, Shristi Karki

Voters cynical about electoral alliances

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

20-november

Dejected voters reject polls

Voters cynical about electoral alliances

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138