Ever since the Panchayat, Nepal has a history of ‘alternative’ candidates being elected to office as a protest vote against non-performing incumbents. But once in decision-making positions, most have proved less than capable. The superstructure of Nepali politics rests on weak foundations, and there is little one candidate can do, no matter how visionary.
The victory of Swarnim Wagle and Rabi Lamichhane in by-elections in Tanahu and Chitwan this week has been greeted with high expectations, but because of our past history, it is tempered with cautious optimism. Even so, the by-elections were a litmus test in which voters made their discontent with the established parties loud and clear.&nbsp;
The results have reaffirmed that Nepalis are finally abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. The reason for that shift is in the behaviour of the main parties in which the Nepali Congress (NC) was asking people to vote for Maoist candidates, or vice versa. Nepalis are now starting to vote for individuals and not parties, especially old men in old parties.
Wagle and Lamichhane are both from privileged caste groups, so their win does not signify more inclusion. But it is an important shift in the public mood which the main parties will ignore at their own peril.
The trend actually started much earlier when non-politicians and relatively unknown candidates were elected in major urban centres in May local elections last year.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/the-reign-god">The Reign God</a>, Santa Gaha Magar
Then, during the November federal election, the independent RSP came out of nowhere with more young political aspirants of varying professions to become the fourth largest party in Parliament.&nbsp;
And it has now added one more parliamentarian to its numbers: Harvard-educated economist Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP in March. Wagle won by a large margin in Tanahu-1, a traditional NC stronghold.
In Chitwan-1, Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide for the second time despite simmering scandals, proving just how disenchanted Nepali voters were with traditional parties.&nbsp;
The big parties were punished for not seeing the writing on the wall and continuing to play politics as usual. Coalition candidates could only hold one of the three seats after JSP chair Upendra Yadav’s win in Bara-2.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/in-with-the-new-out-with-the-old">In with the new, out with the old</a>, Shristi Karki
NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba admitted that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. UML and CPN- Unified Socialist leaders echoed that view.&nbsp;
Only Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists refused to take the by-election for what it was, blaming the messenger and saying there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of the unregulated spread of social media”. It was no surprise that he shifted the blame to everyone else but himself.
The RSP has maintained its support for the Dahal government but both Lamichhane and Wagle will demand their pound of flesh to fill five remaining Cabinet positions. Lamichhane wants back the Home Ministry which is now occupied by the Maoists who are unwilling to part with a powerful office they bargained hard to get.
Lamichhane is playing coy, saying the RSP did not plan to join the government, and may even withdraw support for the 10-party coalition. This could be a ploy to get the plum post back. The former tv anchor could also be angling for an alliance with K P Oli of the opposition UML.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents">Rise of the independents</a>
The RSP is less than a year old, and would do well not to rush into government again, focusing instead on being a strong opposition voice in Parliament which we are sorely lacking. Lamichhane can then use that time to build his nationwide party structure.&nbsp;
The challenge for the mainstream parties until the next federal election will be to stop the slide and not alienate Nepal’s young voter base any more. The older leaders should also make way for younger ones within their own rank and file. Otherwise there may be more defections like Wagle’s from the NC.
The NC, UML and the Maoists need to reinvent themselves. Voters are sick of them. They want them to stop dithering and shuffling the deck. They have given the coalition one last chance to perform in the next five years. Nepal cannot be a proper democracy if political parties themselves continue to be autocratic, exclusionary and corrupt. There are populist reactionaries and extremists waiting on the wings.
Nepal’s ageing career politicians, it is time for you to bow out gracefully. You have failed. Give someone newer a chance.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-next-election">Nepal’s Gen Next Election</a>
&nbsp;Shristi Karki

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Old wine in old bottles

The first indication that Nepal’s voters were turning against mainstream parties was in local elections in May last year. In Kathmandu, Dharan and Dhangadi hitherto unknown candidates defeated established parties. But the big parties treated it as a blip, and carried on with business as usual, and in November’s federal and provincial elections, the independent RSP came out of nowhere to be the fourth largest party in Parliament. &nbsp; Still, the Nepali Congress (NC), UML and the Maoists refused to see the writing on the wall and kept playing politics without principles, making backroom power deals and not responding to the economic crisis and the people’s needs. So, in this week’s by-elections in three districts, voters threw them out. Harvard-educated economist Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the NC to join the RSP, won hands-down against his UML and NC rivals in Tanahu. And in Chitwan, the RSP’s leader Rabi Lamichhane defeated his NC rival by a landslide.&nbsp; Still, there does not seem to be indications of any alarm bells going off in the mainstream parties. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists said on Monday that there was a “danger of anarchy and emotion holding sway because of unregulated spread of social media”. He seemed to blame everyone but himself for the Maoist party being nowhere in the picture in this by-election in which it lent support to the NC. The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba seemed slightly more circumspect, and got over his candidates’ surprise defeats by admitting that voters had “stopped showing an interest in old parties”. The question now is what he is going to do about it. The Wagle and Lamichhane wins have now given the RSP an additional seat in the House of Representatives, to take the total to 21. Wagle received 34,919 votes, much over NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai, who got 20,122 votes.&nbsp; Wagle seems to have carried over a chunk of the NC voter base to the RSP because of that party’s disenchantment with the party leadership of Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzoo for allying with the Maoists. Indeed, Ram Chandra Poudel— who vacated his parliamentary position after he was appointed the President— had received 25,361 votes in November, meaning that the NC received 5,000 fewer votes this time. Interestingly, UML voters seem to have flocked towards Wagle after he shifted to the RSP. The party’s candidate came in second place with 19,981 votes in November, but UML candidate Khanal received over 11,000 less votes. Over in Chitwan, Lamichhane got 54,170 votes, much higher than the NC’s Jit Narayan Shrestha who received 11,214. The fact that Lamichhane got nearly 5,000 more votes than in November shows that despite his citizenship scandals, he is even more popular because of public disenchantment with the NC-Maoist coalition.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230425120432_d22a196a216370f0d8361ec839924f4ac47cc2d6a46a2a84c950eeecff810424" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="Rabi Lamichhane NT"> <figcaption>Rastriya Swatantra Party chair Rabi Lamichhane receives his certification from the Chief Election Officer on Tuesday after winning the by-election from Chitwan-2. Photo: SADAN ADHIKARI/RSS</figcaption> </figure>  The turnout in all three districts has been almost as high as in November, which is contrary to the usual trend of by-elections having lower turnout. And it also shows that Nepali voters are finally thinking out of the box and abandoning inter-generational party allegiances. Wagle’s victory, for instance, showed that voters gave a thumbs down to the NC now allowing a technocrat like Wagle a ticket, and believing that the economist could find a way for the country to extricate itself from the current economic crisis. The personal attacks by NC leaders, including Gagan Thapa who used to be a friend and colleague of Swarnim Wagle, appears to have backfired on the party in Tanahu. Wagle, for his part, has refrained from direct attacks on any party or politician during this campaign – even though he had been publicly critical of the conjugal leadership of the Deubas in the NC.&nbsp; All the negative publicity regarding Lamichhane’s citizenship and passport, Kantipur exposing alleged corruption when he was briefly Home Minister in January, and a scandal involving an RSP MPs soliciting money from a tycoon do not appear to have affected Lamichhane’s support base. In fact, Lamichhane’s voters appear to have been convinced by his argument that the mainstream parties who are neck-deep in corruption were trying to frame him on a relatively minor mistake involving his passport. In Bara-2, where votes were still being counted till Tuesday afternoon, the JSP’s Upendra Yadav is leading with a margin of over 5,000 having received 18,096 votes so far. His closest challenger is Janamat’s Shiv Chandra Prasad Kushwaha. Like Lamichhane, Yadav is running for office for the second time, but unlike Lamichhane, Yadav lost the election in Saptari’s second constituency in November to Janamat chair CK Raut. Yadav is banking on winning in Bara and is said to have persuaded Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold off on completing his Cabinet nomination in hopes of nabbing the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Even though the Chitwan and Tanahu wins for the RSP represent proof of a dramatic decline in support for mainstream parties, it remains to be seen if the RSP will be a true alternative party or behave just like the other established parties. After all, the RSP is a member of Prime Minister Dahal’s 10-party coalition and both Lamichhane and Wagle will be demanding their pound of flesh. Dahal will be in a dilemma because he knows that the Deubas do not like Wagle, and Lamichhane will want an important portfolio among the five still vacant, since his earlier home ministry is already taken. For the moment it is unclear if the RSP will be back in Prime Minister Dahal’s government.

2023-nepal-by-election

Old wine in old bottles

In with the new, out with the old