Despite the contemporary narrative that Nepalis are giving up on their country and are migrating in droves, a recent public opinion poll shows that nearly half the Nepalis are still positive about the direction the country has been going since the last election in 2022. Asked if they feel that the situation has worsened, improved, or remained the same in the past two years, 45.4% of the respondents in the nationwide survey said they were satisfied about the way Nepal is headed. Of them, 13.9% of respondents said they were ‘significantly positive’, while 31.5% said they were ‘somewhat positive’ about the situation in Nepal over the past two years. Although 34.6% of those answering the question believed that the socio-political situation in the country was ‘unchanged’ since 2022, Sharecast Initiative in its analysis of the results, said there was ‘a notable sense of optimism about the current state of affairs’. Even so, about 18% felt the situation was either ‘significantly negative’ or ‘somewhat negative’. And most respondents (35%) felt there had been no change in the country’s situation in the past two years.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111212_f1ec1009533e9c1e6847672142da4688694159bb5ff0e5dc9088007cb6d995a1.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241201111212_f1ec1009533e9c1e6847672142da4688694159bb5ff0e5dc9088007cb6d995a1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1192" height="1030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis not so unhappy"> </figure>  “If we count those who say ‘no change’ as not being satisfied and add that to those who had a negative view of the way the country is going, then we have 55% of the people not happy,” says Madhu Acharya of the research organisation Sharecast Initiative Nepal, which conducts annual public opinion polls. Still, 45% of the people being positive means the national mood is not as pervasively cynical and despondent as Nepal’s public sphere believes it is. Even more unexpected, and also contrary to prevailing perceptions, is that disaggregated data of the responses showed that the level of optimism is highest among young Nepalis, especially women. It was also higher, not surprisingly, among those in the higher income brackets. A higher percentage of female respondents (15.6%) thought Nepal’s current situation was ‘signficantly positive’ while only 12% of males felt that way. More men (11.5%) also had a ‘negative’ view of the past two years, compared to only 7% of women feeling the same way. Provincewise, most of those surveyed in Bagmati and Gandaki said there had been no change, while in the Madhes Province respondents held strong views with 26.5% saying they were ‘signficantly positive’ and 15.7% feeling things are ‘signficantly negative’ — both positive and negative responses were higher in Madhes than any other province. Because Nepal’s migration pattern is blurring the lines between city folk and those residing in villages, the level of positivity was at equal levels in both urban and rural areas of the country, with nearly half the respondents in both areas feeling ‘somewhat’ and ‘significantly’ positive about their circumstances. Literacy appears to play a significant role in determining satisfaction with the state of affairs. Generally, those with higher education were happier than those with less education. Illiterate respondents had the most negative view about their status. Even though understanding among media commentators is that Nepali youth are frustrated and cannot wait to leave the country, the survey showed that 54% of those in the 18-24 age group were either ‘somewhat’ or ‘significantly’ positive about the state of things. In general the older people are, the less happy they seem to be about the way things are. The survey results showed that even though those with higher incomes are generally more satisfied, one-tenth of them felt ‘significantly negative’ about the way things are going in Nepal. The scientific poll was conducted face-to-face earlier this year among 4,267 respondents from all seven provinces and three ecological zones. Nearly 70 supervisors and enumerators fanned out across the country to interview Nepalis selected by domicile, gender, walks of life, socio-economic strata, ethnicity in the ratio of their representation in the population. Most Nepalis see progress in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/beijing-30-zak6iu1w">gender equality</a>, but cite problems: 1. Violence against women 2. Lack of say within households 3. Political representation 4. Societal restraints  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111224_faf741ca7a1187cb971b468eca573c8c3ee756f585d6a72e0dc1bd99114f4088.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20241201111224_faf741ca7a1187cb971b468eca573c8c3ee756f585d6a72e0dc1bd99114f4088" data-rendition-name="original" width="6720" height="4480" loading="lazy" alt="gender equality"> </figure>  As the world marks 16 Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence from 25 November–10 December, a recent public opinion poll in Nepal has shown that both men and women respondents place ‘safety from violence’ as their number one concern. Asked ‘What are the primary issues facing women in Nepal today?’ more than one-third of the respondents felt it was safety and security. Both genders – and especially younger respondents -- identified protection from violence as the main problem facing Nepali women. Geographically, people in Bagmati, Sudurpaschim and Madhes prioritised safety as of women as their main concern.&nbsp; Societal restraints against women was seen as the second-most important problem, especially in regions of the country considered to have more entrenched patriarchal norms like the Karnali. ‘Lack of household decision-making’ was the third main issue respondents said women in Nepal face, and this was especially pronounced in rural areas. It could be a significant pointer to the feminisation of Nepal’s hinterland, with the outmigration mainly of young men from households.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111216_79f09832d11b27679a1cbeb8a8f9189d28afdd3b91a52df4c143d876e23d06f8.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241201111216_79f09832d11b27679a1cbeb8a8f9189d28afdd3b91a52df4c143d876e23d06f8" data-rendition-name="original" width="1420" height="858" loading="lazy" alt="gender equality in Nepal"> <figcaption>All graphs: SHARECAST DATA INITIATIVE, THE STORY KITCHEN</figcaption> </figure>  This was among seven questions asked in a recent nationwide survey ‘General Perceptions of Gender Issues in Nepal’ by Sharecast Data Initiative and the Story Kitchen. The poll was conducted by enumerators in face-to-face interviews with 4,267 respondents selected for a balanced representation of Nepal’s population.&nbsp; In answer to questions if Nepal has been making progress on gender equality, most respondents had positive outlook about female representation, constitutional and legal safeguards and cultural norms. Asked about Nepal’s socio-political and cultural changes affecting women, nearly 62% had a positive response while about 15% said they had noticed no change and about 16% said the country was moving in a negative direction. Younger respondents of both genders, urban residents and those with higher education and income levels tended to have a more optimistic view about socio-political and cultural changes that affected women.&nbsp; In response to a question about new constitutional and legal provisions safeguarding women’s rights and gender equality, nearly three-quarter of respondents (both men and women) felt they had benefited women. Only about 10% felt the laws had negatively affected women.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111216_b359ef289ca228753e83564c3d5a278c650aa8a13dff93a2d49fffff7305646c.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241201111216_b359ef289ca228753e83564c3d5a278c650aa8a13dff93a2d49fffff7305646c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1212" height="804" loading="lazy" alt="gender equality in Nepal"> </figure>  Again, it was younger men and women, city-dwellers and better educated people who were more optimistic. In its analysis of the results, Sharecast says: ‘However, there are areas of concern, particularly among less educated and lower income groups, indicating a need for targeted interventions to address these disparities.’&nbsp; In response to the question about which areas Nepali women have not yet received equal opportunities with men, a surprising 35% said they could not answer, while 20% felt there was no inequality anymore.&nbsp; But among those who said there was inequality, the highest number (12.8%) said it was within in the household. Almost as many cited unequal representation in politics, while education, high-paying jobs and protection from violence were also of concern to respondents.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111220_59198bf078425a63f4a27fe6f6910170fd22ded6da77824de2bdd3c5ebbb337a.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241201111220_59198bf078425a63f4a27fe6f6910170fd22ded6da77824de2bdd3c5ebbb337a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1430" height="928" loading="lazy" alt="gender equality in Nepal"> </figure>  More men (16.3%) cited unequal political representation, while only 9.5% of women respondents felt that was an issue and they pointed to not having enough say within the household (13.7%) as their main concern. Asked about the problems faced by Nepal’s men, the highest number of respondents (27%) said men had ‘no problems’, and a significant number (14.4%) said they had no idea. Most of those who chose to answer (15.4%) said it was lack of jobs and wages.&nbsp; To a question about the problems faced by adolescent girls and boys, substance abuse and mental health topped the list (22.7%), while violence against girls (21.3%) and education came next. Nearly 30% said they didn’t know or couldn’t say.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241201111220_a5ea2454f1462a05a50730a51450ffe99b06b53f58bf5e3db3414ca14338cabf.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20241201111220_a5ea2454f1462a05a50730a51450ffe99b06b53f58bf5e3db3414ca14338cabf" data-rendition-name="original" width="1710" height="1050" loading="lazy" alt="gender equality in Nepal"> </figure>

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Nepalis not so unhappy

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111156/6368e44c9c7e80680e0333d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="659"/>Environmental pollution is not Nepal’s only problem. Citizens around the globe share social, economic and developmental problems. If our situation is the same, our destiny is also the same. So, we have no choice but to unite and solve our problems together. We have to think beyond our surroundings and become global citizens.”These words are not from an environmentalist or a politician, but from Ankit Sangroula, a Grade 8 student at Mount View School in Bhaktapur. Speaking at Hotel Yak &amp; Yeti, his speech left the room full of adults awestruck.Sangroula is one of the students mentored by <a href="https://schoolsonline.britishcouncil.org/about-programmes/connecting-classrooms">Connecting Classrooms</a>, a joint initiative between the British Council and the UK’s Department for International Development (DfID). The program is designed to cultivate knowledge, skills and values in young people so they can live and work in a globalised economy. Working off the beaten track of academic system, the initiative connects students across the world to foster national and international friendship.It also inspires young people to make positive contributions locally and globally. For example, in Baijanathpur, Morang, eight toilets were built by students from Makalu School without any support from donors or local banks. They gave an alternative to villagers who previously used riverbanks as a bathroom where they were sometimes bitten by snakes or chased by the police, but now they have an alternative. The local village council and the rest of the villagers followed their steps by constructing more toilets.The Open Defecation Eradication Project was one of the Council’s successful Social Action Projects conducted in Nepal’s schools. The projects are student-led initiatives focused on tackling community issues and inspiring leadership and team spirit in students. The Social Action Project has been collaborating with 100 schools from 24 districts, involving 16,200 students and reaching out to around 17,000 community members to solve social problems.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111156/6368e44e9c7e80680e0333d1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="960"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The project results have left many impressed. “When these little students came to us to talk about building toilets, we were so proud of them. All of us here are really thankful for this initiative,” says Jhameli Rishidev of Baijanathpur.In total, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BritishCouncilNepal/">British Council</a> has reached out to more than 250 schools in Nepal through International School Award (ISA), integrated with a curriculum that focuses on digital literacy, critical thinking and problem solving, creativity and imagination, student leadership, collaboration and communication and citizenship.The event where Sangroula gave a confident speech was ISA, one of the key programs of the British Council under Connecting Classrooms that recognises schools showing strong commitment to enriching students’ lives and inspiring interest in international cultures and global issues.“Through ISA, I have learnt to use the knowledge we get from books to solve problems around us. Before, we just read books and listened to our teachers. But now we learn by doing,” says Sangroula.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111156/6368e4519c7e80680e0333d2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="665"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nineteen other schools were awarded and four schools were re-accredited for the year 2017/18 during the event, out of 42 schools from 14 districts. The award, into its 6th edition, is endorsed by the Department of Education.Connecting Classrooms has reached out to students, teachers and school leaders in over 30 countries to improve teaching and learning experience through school partnerships and policy dialogues, recognising and awarding progressive schools and encouraging students to lead initiatives. It also provides core skill training to school leaders and teachers on how to make the profession more effective and impactful.Dhani Ram Sharma, a teacher from Nepal Rastriya Chandraganga Secondary School in Surkhet says, "ISA brought dynamic changes in our teaching staff as well as students. Students got golden opportunity to interact with international students through Skype and email. We, teachers learnt about ICT and brought changes in our traditional/ lecture teaching approach, developing innovative techniques."<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111156/6368e4549c7e80680e0333d3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111156/6368e4579c7e80680e0333d4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="417"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Schools receiving International School Award 2017/18<table width="518"><tbody><tr><td width="55">1</td><td width="349">Nepal Rastriya Chandra Ganga school</td><td width="113">Surkhet</td></tr><tr><td width="55">2</td><td width="349">Orchid School</td><td width="113">Chitwan</td></tr><tr><td width="55">3</td><td width="349">Celebration Co-ed School</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr><tr><td width="55">4</td><td width="349">Vidya Sagar English Secondary school</td><td width="113">Kavre</td></tr><tr><td width="55">5</td><td width="349">Nabin Audhyogic Kadak Bahadur Rita School</td><td width="113">Rupandehi</td></tr><tr><td width="55">6</td><td width="349">Sanskriti International School</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr><tr><td width="55">7</td><td width="349">Him Rashmi Secondary School</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr><tr><td width="55">8</td><td width="349">Pragyan Academy</td><td width="113">Jhapa</td></tr><tr><td width="55">9</td><td width="349">KK International School</td><td width="113">Dharan</td></tr><tr><td width="55">10</td><td width="349">Mount View English Boarding School</td><td width="113">Bhaktapur</td></tr><tr><td width="55">11</td><td width="349">Traibidya Sikchhya Sadan Academy</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr><tr><td width="55">12</td><td width="349">Sudesha High School</td><td width="113">Lalitpur</td></tr><tr><td width="55">13</td><td width="349">Eureka School</td><td width="113">Dharan</td></tr><tr><td width="55">14</td><td width="349">Jhapa Model School</td><td width="113">Jhapa</td></tr><tr><td width="55">15</td><td width="349">Babylon School</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr><tr><td width="55">16</td><td width="349">Shreejana Higher Secondary Boarding School</td><td width="113">Pokhara</td></tr><tr><td width="55">17</td><td width="349">Ambika secondary school</td><td width="113">Pokhara</td></tr><tr><td width="55">18</td><td width="349">Gorkha Intl Public School</td><td width="113">Dang</td></tr><tr><td width="55">19</td><td width="349">Eurokids school Chhauni</td><td width="113">Kathmandu</td></tr></tbody></table>

Young change makers

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

adolescents

Nepalis not so unhappy

Young change makers

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138