Anyone following Nepal’s mainstream press this week to find out what is happening would conclude that there was: a) an investment summit, b) a couple of by-elections, and c) another scandal involving Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane.&nbsp; But there is a full scale national emergency that has got scant coverage — thousands of forest fires have been raging across Nepal for more than a month. They have done incalculable damage to the economy, the ecology, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/cleaner-air-longer-lives-0z0okfeu" target="_blank">reduced the average lifespan of Nepalis</a> due to dangerous air pollution.&nbsp; Any other accountable government would set aside everything else and go into fire-fighting mode on a war footing. Not here. There is no indication that state agencies have gauged or understood the sheer extent of this disaster. The media should have sent alarm bells ringing. But its gatekeepers and owners in Kathmandu decide what is important, they get to decide what to report and what not to report. They select which items of news should get due prominence. Normalising this fire calamity and treating it like just another annual event is burying our head in the sand. Not recognising the urgency and seriousness of this year’s prolonged fire season is a disastrous failure. The spring of 2009 and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfires-in-nepal-cause-air-quality-to-plummet" target="_blank">2021</a> were bad, but the fires then were not as widespread and long-lasting as this year. Since early March, there have been tens of thousands of fires, many of which are still burning out of control across the country, consuming entire mountainsides, incinerating villages and killing dozens. There are many reasons why this year has been particularly bad, but putting the blame solely on climate change <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/more-pre-monsoon-forest-fires-in-nepal" target="_blank">misses the bigger picture</a>. In spring villagers deliberately set fire to grasslands so new shoots will grow out of the ashes for livestock to graze on once the rains come. Poachers have also been known to set fire to forests to trap deer as they flee. In the Tarai, fringes of the jungles are deliberately torched by the real estate mafia. This spring, the countryside was tinder dry due to a prolonged winter drought. Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/tree-mendous" target="_blank">forest cover has doubled</a> in the past three decades to nearly 45% of the country’s area. Mass outmigration from the rural mountains means there are fewer people foraging for fuel and fodder in the forests. The undergrowth was therefore loaded with highly combustible dried-out biomass waiting for a spark. A record-breaking early summer heat wave this year desiccated the soil, already dry because of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/water-table-of-kathmandu-valley-falling-fast-recharge-to-replenish,4100" target="_blank">over-extraction of ground water</a> for agriculture, and neglect of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465" target="_blank">traditional ponds</a>. All it took was a match to light the dry grass at the bottom of a mountain to set the whole place ablaze.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240430080436_cc8168a1d33c8ac5a219e064bed4e9bbf4d008968c05eb4c8749f7a1fd5f61f7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240430080436_cc8168a1d33c8ac5a219e064bed4e9bbf4d008968c05eb4c8749f7a1fd5f61f7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1328" height="666" loading="lazy" alt="Smoke Screen Editorial NT #1210"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image showing fires burning on 29 April all over Nepal and India.</figcaption> </figure>  Another source of smoke, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/going-up-in-smoke" target="_blank">as this paper reported recently</a>, is the growing trend of farmers in the Tarai burning wheat stalk in the fields after harvest because of lack of labour due to outmigration. Nepal’s air pollution has been at dangerous levels for months, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) that measures the concentration of harmful particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter at 250-300 for prolonged periods. All this smoke and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/warning-breathing-is-hazardous-to-health" target="_blank">Kathmandu’s own vehicular emissions</a> have made it the world’s most polluted city for weeks now, making COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) the most common ailment in hospitals.&nbsp; Besides reducing lifespans of citizens, the smoke is doing immense damage to the economy. Pokhara airport has been mostly closed this week due to poor visibility during the peak tourist season. Hundreds of tourists who come to Nepal to see the mountains have not seen any —not even Sarangkot is visible from Lakeside in Pokhara. Thousands of tourists are stranded at various airports. <div class="embed-block"><iframe src='https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/17788782/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'></iframe><div style='width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;'><a class='flourish-credit' href='https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/17788782/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/17788782' target='_top' style='text-decoration:none!important'></a></div></div> The smoke and ash from the unprecedented fires has been transported up the mountains to be deposited on already-receding glaciers, melting them even faster because of the reduced reflectivity of dirty ice.&nbsp; The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later" target="_blank">National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority</a>, with its unwieldy acronym NDRRMA, should be paying as much attention to fire disasters as it devotes to earthquakes and floods. Soon, the pre-monsoon rains will douse the fires, and our fatalistic society will forget about wildfires for another year. Then the season of ‘natural disasters’ like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/don-t-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides" target="_blank">floods and landslides</a> will be upon us and we are not adequately prepared for it either. It is too late to do anything about this year’s disaster, but here is a checklist for the 2025 wildfire season:&nbsp; <ul> <li>Ward-level awareness campaign and punitive measures against pyromaniacs.&nbsp;</li> <li>Train security agencies and equip them with firefighting equipment.</li> <li>Fit Nepal Army helicopters with water bombing gear to fight fires in difficult terrain.&nbsp;</li> <li>Firelines and forest management to reduce combustible undergrowth.&nbsp;</li> </ul>

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Smoke Screen

In December, forecasters predicted that Nepal would receive more rain than the three decade average rainfall this winter. We are halfway through winter, and many parts of the country have not received a single drop of rain for four months. Terrace fields in the mountains are dry, and in the plains winter wheat is drying up. Many Himalayan mountains are naked and snowless.&nbsp; “Mukut Himal and many mountains are just bare rock when they should be white with new snow this time of year,” says Madan Sigdel of Tribhuvan University who returned from Upper Dolpo district last week. Nepal receives an average of 60mm of rain during the three coldest months. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has recorded just 1.9mm of rain so far this winter. So far, at least, the forecasters have been dead wrong. The 2023-24 winter is turning out to be driest in recent years.&nbsp; Bibhuti Pokharel of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says that it is too early to declare his office’s weather models wrong. He adds, “Ours was a long-term forecast, it may not have rained yet, but it might rain more than the average during the remaining one-and-a-half months of winter.”&nbsp; Indeed, extreme weather events induced by the climate crisis may not see a change in seasonal precipitation totals, but the rain or snow may fall all at once with destructive force.&nbsp; Winter weather systems in Nepal are dominated by westerly fronts riding the jetstream that travel all the way from the Mediterranean, passing through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, in recent years, the moisture is mostly spent by the time the westerlies reach Nepal.&nbsp; “Studies have shown that the increase in sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean has made the whole region warmer and drier,” explains Binod Pokharel, another hydrology and meteorology professor at Tribhuvan University. “This has meant that the winter wind from the west carries less moisture.” Climate is also greatly influenced by the El Niño and La Niña systems that develop in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when there are above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean while cooling of the ocean there triggers the La Niña. The two events occur every two to seven years, on average.&nbsp; During the La Niña phenomenon, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific change wind patterns, disrupting the westerlies and leading to less rainfall. Last winter the La Niña system was active when there was no rainfall in Nepal.&nbsp; However, the El Niño system replaced La Niña during the first half of 2023, and the Department of Meteorology has estimated that the El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean will persist right through this winter. Nepal has previously had more rain than average when the El Niño system was active. An active El Niño system means there will be more than average rainfall, confirms Sudarshan Humagain of the Meteorology Department. “However, it must be noted that in some years, there has been less than average rain when El Niño is active,” he adds.&nbsp; What this means is that with climate change, weather patterns have become so unpredictable that most long-term forecasts tend to be inaccurate. &nbsp; Indeed, even with an active El Niño, winter rain-bearing westerlies have not been as active as before in Nepal. Periods without rainfall are classified as drought when the total rainfall is less than 75% of the annual average. The trend so far indicates that Nepal is heading for another winter drought, with a significant part of the country not having had rainfall since October.&nbsp; Last year's winter was similarly dry with just 12.9mm of rain, the lowest precipitation recorded in the last 15 years.&nbsp; Data shows that 12 out of the last 18 winters had less than average rainfall, and eight out of those 12 winters had droughts. The trend is that winter rainfall is pushed towards the end of the season, and then it falls all at once.&nbsp; About 80% of the annual rainfall in Nepal occurs during the monsoon months from June to September, and winter generally sees only up to 4% of average yearly rain. “This means that two or three instances of heavy rain are normal for winter months,” says Humagain of the Meteorology Department.&nbsp; The 2023 Synthesis Report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that Asia would experience the effects of extreme rainfall variability and drought in the short term as well as long term. The report also noted that winter temperatures are going up across South Asia and 2023 was the hottest year on record.&nbsp; “It is certain that winter rainfall is declining while winter temperatures are increasing,” explains Professor Pokharel at Tribhuvan University. “Globally, there has been a trend towards more intense rainfall in the monsoon and falling winter precipitation, and this trend could be the norm in coming years.&nbsp; The lack of winter rain and the fact that it is still too early for the winter thaw means that Nepal’s rivers are all running low. This means the country’s total hydropower generation capacity has dropped by 20%, and the shortfall has to be met by power imports from India. At present, Nepal consumes 1,305MW of electricity on average per day, and nearly one-fourth of it is being imported from India this winter. The figure is higher for morning and evening peak hours. “Power generation has declined drastically, and is expected to go down further as chances of rainfall look slim,” says Prakash Chandra Dulal of the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN) “The output of private sector projects usually drops by to 25-28% in winter.” The reason is that all private power plants are run of the river type and not reservoirs that would store monsoon rainfall. Nepal has only one reservoir project, Kulekhani which was built in 1984. The second one is finally under construction on the Seti River in Tanahu.&nbsp; Generating more electricity in winter is more profitable to hydropower producers because the state-run utility Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) &nbsp;buys the power for almost twice the price per unit in winter compared to the monsoon standard rate.&nbsp; “The lack of rainfall and decreased river flow costs us around Rs4 million per megawatt,” says Sura Prasad Adhikari of Barahi Hydro Limited.&nbsp; Even with imports from India, Nepal’s industries are suffering from power cuts.&nbsp; Farmers across Nepal also rely on winter rain more than they do on irrigation systems. Ravi Kiran Adhikari of the Department of Agriculture says that the production of wheat, barley, mustard, lentils, citrus and vegetables is significantly reduced because of winter drought. “There is still time for the crops to revive if it rains during the remaining months of the winter,” says Adhikari, “But if there is no rain, then our crop output will be seriously affected.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1744" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Winter drought NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of wildfires burning in Nepal in the past week. Each dot represents a major fire detected by infrared sensors on the satellite. The picture also shows dense fog blanketing the Indian plains and the Tarai.</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, lack of rain in winter increases the chance of wildfire as happened in the winter of 2021-22 when the Air Quality Index in Kathmandu soared to record-breaking 700.&nbsp; As it is, air pollution in Nepal gets worse during winter months in the Tarai and Kathmandu because of temperature inversion and industrial pollutants from north India.&nbsp; This year’s winter drought is already sparking wildfires, with 48 major fires detected by the NASA FIRMS satellite in the past week.

Nepal suffers another winter drought

Even though heat waves, floods and wildfires are ravaging the planet, it is actually suspended particles in the air that pose the most serious immediate risk to human health, reducing average life spans across the world. Moves to control carbon emissions by switching to renewable energy will help in also reducing pollution thereby improving public health and allowing billions of people around the world to live longer. The <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AQLI_2023_Report-Global_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">latest data from the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI)</a> issued by the Energy Policy Institute of the University of Chicago shows that fine soot particles in the air that are less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in diameter are the most dangerous. <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Nepal-FactSheet-2023_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">Nepal is among countries most affected</a> by particulate air pollution from its own vehicular emissions and open fires, and is downwind in winter from the <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/India-FactSheet-2023_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">most polluted parts of north India</a>. The <a href="https://uchicago.app.box.com/s/swo06s7b5fvfmn0v4h5eisi37w6a5c6g" target="_blank">report reveals</a> that particulate pollution carries the greatest external risk to human health, with the impact on life expectancy comparable to that of smoking, more than 3 times that of alcohol use and unsafe water, and more than 5 times that of traffic accidents.&nbsp; However, the risk is not spread equally across the world. Six countries in the world are at much greater risk than others and most of them are in Nepal’s neighbourhood.&nbsp; “Three-quarters of air pollution’s impact on global life expectancy occurs in just six countries, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, China, Nigeria and Indonesia, where people lose one to more than six years off their lives because of the air they breathe,” says Michael Greenstone, Professor in Economics at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230829050856_334052e47db863afb0a8d17fe97e67321fd808c7079610bd7e9fa3f97d39933b.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230829050856_334052e47db863afb0a8d17fe97e67321fd808c7079610bd7e9fa3f97d39933b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1688" height="632" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollutuon"> </figure>  Even though awareness about the danger of pollution is growing, slow changes in state energy policy have not led to meaningful action. The pollution is also being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air" target="_blank">transported across national boundaries</a>, which means regional cooperation to improve air quality is as important. The first priority is to provide citizens with real-time open air quality data, yet only 6.8% of the Asia knows how dirty their air is. Knowledge about pollution can create public pressure on governments to act. As it is only one-third of the countries in Asia have air quality standards, the basic building block for policies, the AQLI report says. Investment in air quality infrastructure also does not match where air pollution is having its greatest toll on human life.&nbsp; “Timely, reliable, open air quality data in particular can be the backbone of civil society and government clean air efforts—providing the information that people and governments lack and that allows for more informed policy decisions,” says <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mW7YmSSnes&amp;t=50s" target="_blank">Christa Hasenkopf,</a> the director of AQLI and air quality programs at EPIC. “Fortunately, we see an immense opportunity to play a role in reversing this by better targeting—and increasing—our funding dollars to collaboratively build the infrastructure that is missing today.” <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6mW7YmSSnes?si=qCHCmCfqcMXerxiI" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> The release of the AQLI report comes just ahead of the UN’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/observances/clean-air-day" target="_blank">International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies</a>. While much of multilateral and bilateral development assistance goes to control of diseases like malaria and tuberculosis, the resources for pollution control are much less even though many more people die or are affected by dirty air. The report singles out South Asia, especially its densely-populated northern areas as suffering the deadliest impact of pollution. More than a quarter of the global population in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan are the most affected, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/breathing-can-kill-you" target="_blank">losing five years of their lives on average.</a>&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230829050852_2853466cd4b12be5cc853762f736bb5b264a752d22354797f35c24f2cd6a1f5b.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20230829050852_2853466cd4b12be5cc853762f736bb5b264a752d22354797f35c24f2cd6a1f5b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1842" height="1118" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution"> </figure>  Although China had some of the worst air quality 20 years ago, the <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/China-FactSheet-2023_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">report cites its remarkable success</a> in reducing pollution by 42.3% since 2013, when it declared a ‘war against pollution’. The &nbsp;average Chinese citizen can now expect to live 2.2 years longer.&nbsp; Even industrialised countries have high air pollution levels. <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/US-FactSheet-2023_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">Americans are exposed</a> to 65% less particulate pollution than in 1970 before the passage of the Clean Air Act, yet 96% percent of the country still doesn’t meet the WHO’s new guideline of 5 µg/m³. In 2021, California was the most polluted state, not because of vehicular pollution but wildfires.&nbsp; <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Europe-FactSheet-2023_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">Europeans </a>were exposed to 23% less pollution than in 1998, improving their life expectancy.&nbsp; But even then, most European cities do not meet the WHO’s new guideline. Eastern Europeans are living 7.2 months less than people in the west due to dirtier air.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082906080_567310490ad8fe6685e219794356eb128ffd3fb2f722e7c8b419cef0a0744b4e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="2023082906080_567310490ad8fe6685e219794356eb128ffd3fb2f722e7c8b419cef0a0744b4e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1417" height="496" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution"> </figure>  Full report here: <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AQLI_2023_Report-Global_Embargoed.pdf" target="_blank">https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AQLI_2023_Report-Global_Embargoed.pdf</a>

Cleaner Air = Longer Lives

<figure><img width="1125" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9bc9c7e80680e092ebajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Smoke from wildfires was thick enough to nearly block out the sun in Kathmandu. Photos: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Kathmandu Valley endured one of the worst air quality in recent years on Friday as wildfires fanned by strong winds scorched forests in the Himalayan foothills.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://firms2.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2021-03-26;l:terra_crc;@85.9,28.0,8z" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NASA Worldview satellite photograph</a> taken at 1300hrs on 26 March showed thick smoke being blown into Himalayan Valleys and across northern India.Most of Central Nepal has seen an unusually dry winter with only 15% of the normal precipitation in January and February, and this has left the slopes tinder dry. This is also the time of year when farmers burn crop residue and brush to make fields ready to sow maize. <figure><img width="1500" height="692" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9bf9c7e80680e092ebbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Fire races through the undergrowth in a hardwood forest in Rautahat district on Friday afternoon, one of many big flare-ups that smothered Central Nepal in smoke on Friday. Photo: Mukesh Pokhrel</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="828" height="621" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9c29c7e80680e092ebcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The AQI in Kathmandu at 1500hr on Friday was the worst in recent years: 632, which is nearly 20 times more hazardous than what WHO says is safe to breathe. </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Air Quality Index (AQI) in Kathmandu Valley</a> at 1500hrs was 632, which is nearly 20 times worse than what the World Health Organisation regards as being safe to breathe. Even in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/central-nepal-engulfed-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the most polluted afternoons</a> at this time of year, the AQI in Kathmandu’s city centre is below 150.Many people in Kathmandu complained of a burning sensation in the eyes and difficulty breathing as the Valley was shrouded in smoke that was thick enough to block the afternoon sun. <figure><img width="1297" height="788" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9c49c7e80680e092ebdjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A NASA Worldview satellite image taken at 1300hrs on Friday showed thick smoke being blown right across the foothills of the eastern Himalaya.</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="750" height="346" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9c89c7e80680e092ebejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Smoke blankets the East-West Highway near Chandranighapur in the Tarai on Friday evening. Photo: Mukesh Pokhrel</figcaption></figure>Most domestic flights to Kathmandu were cancelled after 1pm, and international flights were either cancelled or diverted because the visibility dropped below 800m.A Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong diverted to Delhi, while a Nepal Airlines flight from Delhi landed after holding for over an hour. A Himalaya Airlines flight from Dammam also had to divert. <figure><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9ca9c7e80680e092ebfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9cc9c7e80680e092ec0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9ce9c7e80680e092ec1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9d19c7e80680e092ec2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9d39c7e80680e092ec3jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9d69c7e80680e092ec4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cd9d89c7e80680e092ec5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Adding to the smoke from the wildfire that has also been sand dust blowing from the Arabian and Indian deserts for the past week, and this is compounded by crossborder industrial pollution as well as Kathmandu’s own vehicular emission. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kangchenjunga-wildfire-visible-from-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires are too extensive for Nepal’s meager fire-fighting capability</a>, and besides the blaze is in steep and inaccessible slopes and being spread rapidly by up-valley afternoon winds. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wildfires have been common this winter and spring</a> in Kaski and Dhading and Rasuwa districts in central Nepal burning for months. One fire in the forests of lower Manang burnt continuously from November to January.

Wildfires in Nepal cause air quality to plummet

In 2003, the death by police firing of a student protesting a rise in fuel prices pushed Nepal’s student activists to join the प्रतिगमन विरोधी आन्दोलन (Movement Against Regression), which political parties had begun after king Gyanendra’s sacking an elected government a year before. The students’ participation elevated the movement and prompted more Nepalis to join in, leading to the People’s Movement that first sidelined the monarchy and then abolished it in 2008.&nbsp; That took five years to happen. But 12 years later, this month, a youth-led protest forced the prime minister to resign within 30 hours.&nbsp; Police massacred GenZ activists, many of them students, outside Parliament on 8 September. This intensified public anger, leading to targeted attacks, looting, and burning of the homes of political leaders, private businesses, and public buildings.&nbsp; Amid the smouldering ruins of state institutions, young Nepalis chose a new prime minister to lead an interim government and deliver a fresh mandate. All of this happened in five days.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250910140912_019d62de4b62a366299a27d1276e931a7dadefcc674441e7fb3acd503970efaf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250910140912_019d62de4b62a366299a27d1276e931a7dadefcc674441e7fb3acd503970efaf" data-rendition-name="original" width="8000" height="5760" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal in ashes"> <figcaption>Parliament building up in flames during the GenZ protest on 9 September. Photo: KAMAL PRASAI</figcaption> </figure>  Students have been central to Nepal’s democratic and political process since the mid 20th century. In her 2018 book Making New Nepal, researcher Amanda Thérèse Snellinger traces the history of student activism and politics against a background of &nbsp;Nepal’s socio-political history and party politics.&nbsp; Snellinger examines the interplay of ideology and identity, explores how student activists fit into a political landscape continually occupied by the traditional elite, and details how student leaders have established themselves through relationships with influential actors on local, national, regional, and transnational levels. The Rana regime’s repression caused students to be politically aware. In 1947, students held the first organised protest against the Rana autocracy demanding educational reforms. The breadth of student activism expanded during the Panchayat era after king Mahendra banned political parties, which drove mainstream politicians and parties underground. &nbsp;Student activists then became proxies for multiparty democracy because they were still able to organise.&nbsp; Student politics was institutionalised, and unions emerged as vanguard sister organisations of political parties. Student activism, more so than mainstream political parties, played key roles during &nbsp;both major movements in 1990 and the 2000s, as they mobilised the citizenry to join the democratic process.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924130940_f94cf97fb7ed98b90b48736e1aa8a76466f50337dffc36ec78e9cd5e6927deea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250924130940_f94cf97fb7ed98b90b48736e1aa8a76466f50337dffc36ec78e9cd5e6927deea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1952" height="2928" loading="lazy" alt="1990 people's movement Nepal"> <figcaption>The iconic image of the 1990 People's Movement agaist the autocratic Panchyat regime of the king. Photo: MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA</figcaption> </figure>  Through extensive ethnographic research between 2003 and 2015, Snellinger investigates the political coming of age of student activists during the final years of the armed insurgency and their role in and beyond the movement that ultimately abolished the monarchy. Her research revolves around the political journeys of five student activists: Akash and Rishi from the Nepali Congress (NC) student wing Nepal Student Union (NSU), Salini from the UML’s All Nepal National Free Students’ Union (ANNFSU-Akhil), Gyanu from ANNISU-Revolutionary of the Maoists, and Lagan, who began his political journey from Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party’s student wing Nepal Krantikari Bidyarthi Sangathan. The ‘movement against regression’ in 2003 served as the entry point &nbsp;for activists into national party politics. Indeed, it was their &nbsp;participation in the movement that elevated the profile of the main subjects of Snellinger’s research. In the years that followed, the paths of the five activists diverged. Some made it into mainstream politics, even becoming lawmakers. In doing so, they have had to trade idealism for pragmatism, and their attempts realise their previous vision for Nepal’s democracy have been overshadowed by their political opportunism and position. And even decades after they began their journey as student activists, the generation that the book focuses on are still considered &nbsp;‘youth’ leaders. Snellinger quotes a former student leader who joined mainstream politics as saying: “I am still a youth because &nbsp;my aspirations remain unfulfilled.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924130944_7cca095d79fb5ce45cf92c61b77d72c31c5e0931aa744c73e264b6f91efdd29b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250924130944_7cca095d79fb5ce45cf92c61b77d72c31c5e0931aa744c73e264b6f91efdd29b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1004" loading="lazy" alt="2006 People's Movement of Nepal"> <figcaption>A student protester wearing a paper crown and ridiculing Gyanendra with an impersonation, a day after king stepped down and left his palace. Photo: AJAY JOSHI / A PEOPLE WAR</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, the refusal of Nepal’s octogenarian leaders to retire (even after The upheaval this month) has created a surplus of younger adults waiting in the wings, making the word ‘youth’ relative in Nepal’s political trajectory. Other subjects of Snellinger's research have retreated from student and mainstream activism, either in disappointment over their mother party’s retreat from some of their more radical positions, or to &nbsp;continue their work at the community level through education and journalism. One of them has leveraged her political connections to further women-led initiatives after unsuccessful election bids. Nearing the end of her research in 2015, Snellinger observes the disappointment of Madhesi communities whose movement to demand more inclusive provisions of the draft Constitution had gone in vain, even after 45 lives were lost.&nbsp; As the Constitution was promulgated in 2015, TVs were switched off in the Tarai, and there were sighs of resignation. In Kathmandu, Snelllinger noted that the student leaders that entered mainstream politics protesting for inclusive democracy had little empathy for the struggles and similar demands of groups in the Madhes. Despite the students’ role in ending the monarchy, Nepal’s political status quo has remained. The institutions and people that replaced the &nbsp;monarchy have allowed one set of Kathmandu elites to be replaced with another.&nbsp; The socio-political benefits promised during the movement two &nbsp;decades ago have remained tightly controlled by leaders who refuse to give up their hold on power. The political system was overhauled, but without concrete reform. It was only a matter of time before public frustration would boil over. Indeed, Snellinger concludes her book by predicting the inevitability of future movements in Nepal.&nbsp; She writes: ‘Leaders emerge through the andolan … a new generation will emerge shaped by Nepal’s accumulated socio-political heritage, which they will mediate to shape a liveable present and future for themselves in their country, perhaps by continuing the movement.’&nbsp; And that is exactly what happened on 8-9 September. Students marched in the streets demanding an end to corruption and impunity, but this time not as proxies of political parties.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250908120948_8a9acceede487651487c2f15b65e40f900ee6cd390bbf98394eade6b95d05b28.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250908120948_8a9acceede487651487c2f15b65e40f900ee6cd390bbf98394eade6b95d05b28" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Gen Z protest"> <figcaption>A student during the GenZ protest against acorruption on 8 September. Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  Their desire for socio-political reform was apolitical at a time in Nepal’s history when the nation’s student organisations have weakened and lost credibility, mirroring the erosion of trust in their parent parties. Along with party-based student unions, the Free Student Union (FSU)— the umbrella body all student unions—has lost its reputation due to corruption and embezzlement. That is not to say there are no similarities in movements past and present. Whether political or apolitical, protests have been overshadowed by a lack of unity within the groups that spearhead movements. They have led to destruction of public and private institutions.&nbsp; Leaders of youth and student movements have also had to bear the brunt of the frustration of the people they represent when there is no delivery on their demands. The academics of students have suffered because of frequent lockouts of university and college administration. Youth andolan, whether political or apolitical, has been a rite of passage into Nepali democratic politics — dissensus is an integral part of political regeneration. It remains to be see how the fall &nbsp;from grace of political parties after the GenZ movement will affect their affiliated student unions. As elections approach, student unions and youth collectives will find their own footing in Nepal’s &nbsp;newly emerging socio-political landscape. The youth who took to the streets are asking for a complete overhaul for political parties. Establishmentarian leaders still have not seen the writing on the wall.&nbsp; NextGen leaders in their parties have been waiting for years for their turn &nbsp;to break through the glass ceiling. These established political actors will not go down without a fight in the run-up to March elections.&nbsp; Amanda Thérèse Snellinger perhaps needs a post-script or even a sequel to her book to see how a new generation of leaders, forged by their student activism, will compete in Nepal's new political arena.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250923190928_98d53dd49d56c92950bc34642eaee51dea458fd64312d945a358ad70e5e994bb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250923190928_98d53dd49d56c92950bc34642eaee51dea458fd64312d945a358ad70e5e994bb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Making new Nepal book details NT"> </figure>

Nepal’s historic youth dissensus

What does a journalist do when young protesters are shot in front of her? Does she do her job and stay neutral? Can you stay neutral?&nbsp; As protests engulfed Kathmandu, Nepal's journalists found themselves reporting a story that was personal. While doing their job, some of them were even targeted by mobs.&nbsp; Dart Asia Pacific Fellow <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/arunkarki/" target="_blank">Arun Karki</a> visited their newsrooms and spoke with his colleagues on their experience of reporting the GenZ protests that erupted on 8 September. These are the first-hand accounts of journalists who witnessed the turmoil in the city they call home. Sunita Karki was at a workshop in a hotel on 8 September. She saw the first waves of protests through hotel windows. Curfew alerts flooded her phone, a vehicle belonging to a human rights group sat burning across the road, young boys were taking their wounded friends on motorbikes to the Everest Hospital, and police were beating a teenager with hands raised up.&nbsp; “I cried a lot,” she said, but the tears were not out of fear -- they were because she felt guilt. “I couldn’t write the news. We were witnessing these scenes from a five-star hotel.” By evening, the death toll had reached 19. On 9 September at about 3:35 p.m. &nbsp;her outlet, the Annapurna Post's office in Tinkune, Kathmandu, was set on fire. Staff had to leave the building as parts of the newsroom burnt down.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_e1cc49c9e4fcc4bd4cd3c0163c782fc4e9956bf633cff7b53a63cf8e2dd74cff.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250924040948_e1cc49c9e4fcc4bd4cd3c0163c782fc4e9956bf633cff7b53a63cf8e2dd74cff" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dart Centre Asia Pacific"> </figure>  When she knew her office was burning, she anxiously told her husband that she would resign from the job: "If we have to hide our identification cards in every protest, what kind of journalist am I?" she asked herself. She filed a story the next day, but her emotions kept bouncing between that of a journalist’s duty and shock. She said that in moments like this, it’s hard to feel truly neutral. After watching the police beat people, she felt a strong urge to step in, not just stand back and report. The first real calm came later, when people came to the street and lit small candles together. “This was a sort of victory procession. I felt some relief after brutal days,” she said. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/angaddhakal/" target="_blank">Angad Dhakal</a> a photojournalist who works at Kantipur National Daily, was standing outside his office building when protesters stormed in and set parts of it on fire. He had already been informed that protesters were planning to torch his office building and &nbsp;rushed to his office hoping to save his hard drives containing ten years of photography work. He failed. He raised his camera and "forcefully" pressed the shutter - more to document the scene than out of "professional enthusiasm or duty".&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_ebafaacb85c4ea045c41f2c63f1eff06fee9a4ddb5fbf419724e1a5d533781fa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250924040948_ebafaacb85c4ea045c41f2c63f1eff06fee9a4ddb5fbf419724e1a5d533781fa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="It is hard to feel neutral NT"> <figcaption>Photo: GAURAV POKHAREL</figcaption> </figure>  “My office was burning. What should I photograph?” he recalled. A few moments later, a protester noticed the “PHOTO” label on his yellow Press jacket. Dhakal deflected it by saying he was an early career freelancer and YouTuber. So that protesters wouldn't find out, he went to one corner and took his jacket off. When it comes to covering street protests, &nbsp;Angad usually stands near the police because it feels safer. But on 8 September, fire and gunshots made even that area unsafe. A rubber bullet hit his friend Dipendra Dhungana that badly injured him.&nbsp; He thought, “Where do we go now? If we stay here, we’ll be hit.” After witnessing two days of protests, violence, and killings, and seeing his own office burning, he couldn't sleep for days. The same afternoon that government buildings burned and Kantipur was attacked, a message in a protest Discord forum talked openly of 'attacking Kantipur'.&nbsp; Rumours spread to other outlets. Outside OnlineKhabar's office, where <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/article/edit/7376157229248528384/?author=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_company%3A79132377#" target="_blank">Gaurav Pokharel</a> works, the newsroom manager saw “very suspicious people were walking around”. They lowered blinds, avoided windows, locked the front gate and dispersed staff to other places across the city. The outlet was threatened and effectively locked down, but not torched. Pokharel hid his press ID. “ I never showed the ID card. Sometimes I had to enter the crowd shouting slogans, just to blend in among the protesters,” he said. He watched people fall under gunfire, he helped pull one surrounded journalist out of a hostile crowd.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_3b335eee57280373cb51f460534ca4476df23f89c787ba9e4a66d116a537b1a3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250924040948_3b335eee57280373cb51f460534ca4476df23f89c787ba9e4a66d116a537b1a3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="It is hard to feel neutral NT"> <figcaption>Photo: GAURAV POKHAREL</figcaption> </figure>  As a freelancer, Gaurav also contributed articles for international outlets. Later, while transcribing an interview of a young protest organiser, he wrote to his editor at an international outlet : “This was very hard to write. I cried many times while doing it.” He had been working at a stretch for days battling bouts of exhaustion and low blood pressure.&nbsp; Protesters vandalised and set fire within the Singha Darbar complex housing Nepal Television and Radio Nepal. They tried to disrupt public broadcasting.&nbsp; Surendra Paudyal began the day with his press ID hanging on his neck, thinking it would let him move freely. But when he reached Singha Darbar around 3:30PM, the situation felt dangerous.&nbsp; He put the ID in his pocket. When asked what mattered most, he answered without pause: life comes first. In that moment, he felt real fear and a strong duty to protect his team.&nbsp; His focus narrowed to basic things: stay calm, find exits, get everyone out safely. Later, they were able to keep the 8 pm news on air through a regional link. He felt mixed emotions and a sense of relief that the broadcast continued, but also sadness and anger that their own studio had come under attack. Reprinted with permission from the Dart Centre Asia Pacific, a regional hub that provides trauma-informed support and advice to journalists.

"It is hard to feel neutral"

Harry Jackson was on an epic adventure ‘from Thailand to the UK on 2 wheels’ when he ran into the ultimate sidequest. Having just visited Zangla in Ladakh, Jackson had only landed in Kathmandu when he found himself in the middle of GenZ protests earlier this month. ‘<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Slq6zWu9o9w">Arriving in Nepal - Chaos, Protest &amp; Curfews</a>’ is the title of his first video (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@wehatethecold/videos">wehatethecold on YouTube</a>) about the protest. He shoots police as they shoot at protesters outside Parliament. Jackson is riding a Honda CT125, a retro lightweight motorbike with off-road capabilities. Strapped to the bike is his sparse luggage, flute, and a faded Union Jack. People are rioting on the streets and there is a heavy armed police presence as he makes his way to his hostel in Thamel. His vlog the day after on 9 September has 29 million views. In ‘<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyxSqeFrlp0">The side of Nepal the media won’t show you</a>’, Jackson rides his bike straight at the crowd just past the Parliament building into Old Baneswar.&nbsp; He parks it and walks among the protestors, documenting it all: from the police firing capsules of tear gas into the crowd to the burning Parliament building as well as the jubilant, victorious crowd in the premises as they destroy police vehicles and dance. “I’m shocked at the scenes I’ve witnessed here today. I have truly witnessed history on a stupid trip from Thailand to England on a f***ing moped!” exclaims Jackson as he leaves the scene for the day, heading back to his hostel to edit the footage. The hostel is in direct contrast to the raucous scenes of the protest, as tourists and Nepalis sit and lounge at tables. ‘KUIRE VLOGGER’ Nepalis quickly called him the ‘kuire vlogger’, and attribute his skin colour to his popularity. Objectively, the videos are well made. Jackson goes full gonzo journalist, putting himself right in the heart of the action, talking directly to the people, all while narrating the events as they unfold. Despite being cut together in an entertaining way, the footage retains a raw, unpolished quality that outdoes what most professional journalists with a heavy duty camera crew could do. At a time when legacy media has been seen to be pushing biased narratives, Jackson wants to see for himself what happened, and make up his own mind.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250925120956_f7141e06c72655502fc4b2e56120d084b0f5ae111078d66df4fd0415adf8d376.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250925120956_f7141e06c72655502fc4b2e56120d084b0f5ae111078d66df4fd0415adf8d376" data-rendition-name="original" width="2880" height="1604" loading="lazy" alt="WehateTheCold"> </figure>  This kind of video journalism takes a lot of skill and a certain personality. Many people, almost everybody, had their phones out at the protests, but only a handful were like Jackson. He interviewed people firsthand, edited the clips and uploaded them the same day. Jackson continued his vlogging over the next few days as the curfew was first put in place and then lifted. He explores the city as the Valley rebounds. By this time, Nepalis recognise him everywhere he goes. Jackson had achieved moderate fame as a 23-year old DJ in Birmingham, but what he has done in Nepal is something else. Almost everyone he talks to has already seen his vlog, and they are all eager to interact. He has been on multiple podcasts in Nepal too, and most videos online on the protests reference his vlogs. Before his Nepal blogs, Jackson had a modest 16k subcribers on YouTube, but after Nepal figure is now almost 700k, gaining over 100k each through 11-13 September. Most of them are Nepali viewers. “I’m just a regular dude who just did what he wanted to do,” says Jackson on a podcast. “I wanted to go on an adventure, learn about history, and learn languages. And I wanted to film it, document it, and have a wicked film for my life to show future generations.” &nbsp;

The accidental journalist

Although instability is endemic to South and Southeast Asia, it is becoming increasingly dangerous both for India’s neighbors and India itself. This was reflected most recently in the violent unrest in Nepal. But that crisis is hardly an isolated case. In Bangladesh, directly to India’s east, the same tensions that led to the overthrow of the government in 2024 remain unresolved. And to the southeast, Thailand is reeling from the court-ordered removal of its prime minister and a series of recent border clashes with Cambodia. 
According to the Armed Conflict Location &amp; Event Data project, Myanmar’s civil war has claimed at least <a href="https://acleddata.com/report/war-sky-how-drone-warfare-shaping-conflict-myanmar" target="_blank">80,000 lives</a>, both civilians and combatants, since 2021, following the military coup that ended Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. To India’s west, a perpetually volatile Pakistan wrestles with the zombies of its history: Islamist extremist groups and poor economic and governmental performance. 
To the south, Sri Lanka may have settled down following the ouster of its president three years ago, but its economy shows few signs of mounting a sustained recovery. And to the north, China’s quest for regional hegemony is another source of instability. 
For India, these crises are not distant concerns. Refugee flows from Bangladesh are causing social unease and disruptions in India’s eastern states; the never-ending threat of cross-border terror from Pakistan nearly incited a war in Kashmir this summer; and now, Nepal’s volatile politics have given China another opportunity for meddling. Since this arc of fragility is too large to ignore, the question for India’s leadership is how to absorb and minimize the shockwaves, and how to steady the region.
One can start with Nepal, which has struggled to live by the ambitious constitution that was forged to end a long Maoist rebellion two decades ago. Nepali state institutions remain fragile and contested, and hopes of stability have been repeatedly dashed by factionalism, corruption, and political leaders’ inability to consolidate a system that everyone can trust. The recent spasm of shockingly brutal violence is a symptom of these deeper fault lines. 
India cannot be indifferent to such instability. Our long, open border with Nepal makes us vulnerable to refugee flows and cross-border crime, and our deep cultural, ethnic, religious, and economic ties mean that the government in Kathmandu will always look over its shoulder at the government in New Delhi. Moreover, China’s increasing influence in Nepal’s domestic politics has, as a matter of necessity, made the country a major strategic concern for India. 
In Bangladesh, the interim government that has ruled since <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/sheikh-hasina">Sheikh Hasina</a>’s ouster is failing in its efforts to restore law and order or safeguard human rights. The economy, a bright spot for decades, is under pressure from domestic political jitters and US President Donald Trump’s punishing tariffs. The febrile political environment has left the country’s minorities feeling increasingly insecure. The stakes for India are high, because its own efforts to manage the border, migration, and counterterrorism depend on the regime in Dhaka maintaining order. 
At first glance, Thailand’s turmoil and the border clashes with Cambodia may seem less urgent. But India, under its Act East policy, has been pursuing deeper economic and strategic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ ten member states and their 600 million-plus people. Any instability within that bloc will complicate this outreach. 
Moreover, Thailand has long served as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. If its institutions falter, or if disputes with Cambodia escalate despite Malaysian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/anwar-ibrahim">Anwar Ibrahim</a>’s best efforts to broker a resolution, India’s vision of a connected, secure Indo-Pacific corridor could become untenable. 
To describe Pakistan as chronically troubled may sound dismissive, but it is an unfortunate truth. The country’s civilian authorities have been consistently undermined, as when <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/imran-khan-1">Imran Khan</a>’s elected government was ousted in 2022 at the military’s behest. Extremist groups thrive when politics becomes a blood sport, and Pakistan’s fragile economy only exacerbates this dynamic. 
From India’s perspective, Pakistan’s troubles are more than a domestic issue, because they regularly threaten to spill across the Line of Control in Kashmir, fueling terrorism, destroying any prospect for regional peace, and even introducing the specter of a nuclear catastrophe. This continuous instability chains India to the sub-continental chessboard, even when it wants to look outward. The Pakistan-China axis further complicates the status quo, which is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. 
All these stories point to a larger worrying trend: democracy in India’s neighborhood is in retreat. Constitutions are being rewritten, and courts politicized. Sensing weakness, too many army generals see themselves as free to intervene, including by jailing or exiling political leaders.
For India – the world’s largest democracy – responding to this trend demands a more assertive regional strategy. Of course, for most of South Asia, barring Pakistan, India is the first responder when crises hit. But during periods when India’s neighbors do not think they need its help, they tend to shrug off its security concerns. 
And as if India’s neighborhood were not dangerous enough, the wider world adds its own layers of uncertainty. Trump’s policy toward the region has been arbitrary in the extreme, leading smaller states to hedge their bets. In Japan and South Korea, debates are underway about the wisdom of acquiring nuclear weapons, now that China is flexing its muscles and the US security umbrella has been called into question. 
Although India has stood its ground in the face of the storm, the regional and Trump-induced volatility is making it harder to maintain the country’s treasured strategic autonomy. The task now is no longer to deepen ties with America, but to maintain the strategic, technological, and economic core of the partnership while building resistance against sudden shifts in US policy. 
India is not seeking dominance in South Asia. Its goal is to build an inclusive, rules-based, and connected region – and thus transform a history of recurring crises into a future of enduring stability. © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>
Nirupama Rao is a former foreign secretary of India and former Indian ambassador to China and the United States.

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