<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a239d9c7e80680e0417f8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/>Responding to a slew of reports in the international media about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heli-rescue-fraud-tarnishes-nepals-image/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insurance fraud in the trekking industry</a>, the Nepal government says it is cracking down on perpetrators, while planning action against an insurance investigator said to be behind the sustained negative coverage.Reports this week in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/world/asia/nepal-everest-insurers-fraud.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The New York Times</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/nepal-everest-helicopter-scams-evacuation-rescue-travel-insurance-a8745601.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Independent</a> quote a letter written to Minister of Tourism Rabindra Adhikari by Jonathan Bancroft, Managing Director of <a href="https://www.travellerassist.co/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Traveller Assist</a>, in which he has threatened to get his clients to cut coverage if Nepal does not press charges against 17 trekking agencies, helicopter companies and hospitals it says are involved in claiming insurance for fake rescues.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heli-rescue-fraud-tarnishes-nepals-image/">Heli rescue fraud tarnishes Nepal's image</a>, Robert SkinnerBoth stories quote Danny Kaine of Traveller Assist, who is said to have personally delivered the letter to the ministry in which Bancroft bluntly writes: ‘To be clear, this is an ultimatum! If our clients stop issuing travel insurance policies in Nepal … (it) will have a devastating effect on the tourism industry in Nepal, and your country’s reputation.’ (See box below.)<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23a19c7e80680e0417f9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="181" height="172">The government appears to be taking the damaging media coverage seriously, and called an emergency meeting in Singha Darbar on Tuesday with Tourism Minister Rabindra Adhikari, representatives of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bureau of Investigation and others.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/choppers-to-abc-banned/">Choppers to ABC banned</a>, Yuvaraj ShresthaAdhikari told Nepali Times: “We are committed to cracking down on insurance fraud, and set up a Committee last year to investigate. After that, the number of cases of helicopter rescues, especially unnecessary ones, had actually started to drop. Which is why we are concerned by the continued leaks to the international press, and the threatening tone of this letter.”The Ministry of Tourism says its statistics show that there were only 186 helicopter rescues in the autumn trekking season last year, a sharp drop from the 1,532 between March and May of 2018. (See graph below.)In the letter to the minister, Bancroft says his company had issued the 15 February deadline since ‘not a single charge has been laid’ on the companies named in the ministry’s report, which it said were still in business.<a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com/f3a5c6ea-cddc-4183-b708-ea4f7e14ab05" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Helicopter rescues</a><a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Infogram</a>The incidence of fraudulent rescues claiming insurance has risen in the past four years, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heli-rescue-fraud-tarnishes-nepals-image/">as reported by this newspaper</a> and others. Some trekking companies, in collusion with helicopter charters and hospitals, entice trekkers to opt for medical evacuation at an inflated fee, and share the profits. There have even been rumours of guides deliberately spiking the food of trekkers so they fall sick.Stung by the flurry of reports, the Tourism Ministry set up an investigation committee which issued its report in August. The Ministry then drafted new rules governing search, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19077#.XFOgGM8zYnU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rescue</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/going-to-great-heights-to-prevent-altitude-illness/">treatment of trekkers</a> to check fraud.However, Tourism Ministry officials themselves admit that the rules have not been enforced because of a lack of manpower. Says Secretary Krishna Devkota: “We are committed to investigate and take action against the guilty. These scams are having a negative impact on the industry ahead of Visit Nepal 2020.”A source at the Tourism Ministry disclosed that last August, after the investigation committee presented its report, a delegation led by Nabaraj Dahal of <a href="http://www.taan.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trekking Agents Association of Nepal</a> met the co-Chair of the ruling NCP Pushpa Kamal Dahal who then put pressure on Minister Adhikari to let those named off the hook.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23a29c7e80680e0417fajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="480">Some of the unscrupulous companies involved in the scam enjoy high-level political protection because they are party donors, offer free helicopter rides during elections, or provide complimentary hospital treatment.Prakash C Lohani of <a href="http://www.alpine-rescue.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alpine Rescue Service</a> which represents half the foreign insurers says: “The rescue business needs to be better regulated. We need to punish the guilty, and stop maligning the whole trekking industry.”Those involved in fake rescues play on the grey zone in which even physicians are not able to tell if a patient suffering from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/going-to-great-heights-to-prevent-altitude-illness/">altitude sickness</a> or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/trekkers-with-the-trots/">severe diarrhoea</a>  needs immediate evacuation or will get better by simply descending and taking medicine. Many trekkers themselves agree to be evacuated at the slightest sign of trouble.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/going-to-great-heights-to-prevent-altitude-illness/">Going to great heights to prevent altitude sickness</a>, Peter Hackett <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/trekkers-with-the-trots/">Trekkers with the trots</a>, David R ShlimRam Sapkota of <a href="https://www.hsj.com.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan Social Journeys</a> says the real problem is unnecessary rescues rather than fake rescues. “Some trekkers get seriously sick, others pretend to be more ill than they are. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2912#.XFOhDc8zYnV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Up in the mountains no one wants to take a risk</a>,” he adds.After the investigation and new rules, the Tourism Ministry says the number of unnecessary rescues have gone down. Strict enforcement of the guidelines, setting an upper limit for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Insurance,361">helicopter rescues</a>, a fixed price for hospital treatment, and monitoring compliance would prevent price gouging.“All they have to do to control fraud rescues is to enforce existing rules,” says Rajendra Bahadur Singh of <a href="http://mtnhelicopters.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mountain Helicopters</a>, who knows of rescues in which charter companies evacuate more than one trekker, but bill them separately. There is also conflict of interest: some travel and trekking agencies represent insurance companies, and approve final compensation payments to themselves.Says mountaineer Kaji Sherpa: “This scandal has tarnished Nepal’s image, and that of the many upright companies here. There should not be a cover-up, we should correct ourselves and book the guilty.”<h2>What is Traveller Assist?</h2>This Ireland-based company works on behalf of international insurance underwriters in Nepal and other ‘difficult countries’ on medical assistance, insurance processing and ‘cost containment’ – a euphemism for investigating and reducing false claims.All stories in the international media in the past year exposing insurance fraud in Nepal’s trekking industry quote <a href="https://www.travellerassist.co/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Traveller Assist</a>’s Danny Kaine, an ex-soldier and a frequent Nepal visitor. This week, Kaine is said to have delivered a letter from Traveller Assist Managing Director Jonathan Bancroft addressed to the Minister of Tourism Rabindra Adhikari in which he has threatened to get his clients to stop issuing coverage for Nepal after 15 February unless those guilty of fraudulent rescues are charged. The letter was leaked to international media and got wide coverage.Ministry officials say they are now strictly monitoring unnecessary rescue flights, and claim that the numbers have come down. “We are surprised by these damaging leaks to the international press at a time when we were cleaning up the industry,” said a Ministry official. “We have taken note of the threatening tone of the letter. Who are they to be giving an ultimatum to the Government of Nepal on behalf of their clients?”Indeed, reputable agencies and hospitals in Nepal, while admitting there are dodgy companies involved in insurance scams, accuse Kaine of writing them emails soliciting all insurance business for himself. Ministry officials also refuted Kaine’s claim that he has an agreement with the government to uncover rescue fraud. The Police Central Investigation Bureau is reportedly probing Kaine’s activities in Nepal, and confirmed that he flew out this week.Many media reports quote Traveller Assist’s statistics on the fraudulent rate for the 3,200 helicopter rescues in 2018. Doctors specialising in high altitude medicine interviewed by Nepali Times say that even if a company had access to so many medical records of rescues, it would still be difficult to determine the exact condition of the patient, and whether a rescue was necessary or not in cases of Acute Mountain Sickness.In an interview in Kathmandu last week, Kaine denied writing emails to trekking agencies and hospitals, and demanded to see them. He added: “I don’t have any personal interest in this, but Nepali companies are cheating American, British and Australian insurance firms as reported in the international media. If the guilty are not charged, we will increase international attention on this issue.”In a separate note to Nepali Times on 29 January, Kaine said the emails about him were ‘fabricated … by one of the companies named in the fraudulent investigation’. He went on to accuse this paper of ‘acting on behalf of the companies accused of fraud … a very dangerous precedent to set for a journalist from a respected news agency in Nepal’.Earlier, in answer to a simple email query about whether Kaine really worked for Traveller Assist, Jonathan Bancroft was needlessly abrasive, and accused this reporter of trying to play him off against Kaine. Bancroft went on to add: ‘Mr Sharad, after asking some questions in the industry in Nepal about you … (it) _gives me the inclination to no longer communicate with you or your organization…’.

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Nepal trekking industry in damage control mode

The 12th Mountain Medicine World Congress is being held in Kathmandu 21-24 November, with more than 400 delegates from over 30 countries taking part.The biennial conference is being organised by the International Society for Mountain Medicine (<a href="http://ismm.org/congress/">ISMM</a>) together with the Himalayan Rescue Association (<a href="http://himalayanrescue.org.np/">HRA</a>) and the <a href="https://mmsn.org.np/">Mountain Medicine Society of Nepal</a>. <img width="156" height="250" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934369c7e80680e03dfe1jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Congress will continue to focus on science and research and offer a comprehensive overview of ongoing topics of interest in mountain medicine, including emergency mountain medicine.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/going-to-great-heights-to-prevent-altitude-illness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Going to great heights to prevent altitude illness</a>, Peter Hackett<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/trekkers-with-the-trots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trekkers with the trots</a>, David R ShlimLocated in the Central Himalaya with some of the highest terrain in the world, and a popular destination for mountaineers and trekkers from all over the world, Nepal is an ideal venue for the Congress.Nepali climbers have accompanied expeditions for many decades to the world’s highest mountains not just in Nepal, but all over the world. In addition, and increasing number of young Nepalis are discovering their own country, and can be found in large numbers on trekking trails that used to be frequented by foreigners. <figure><img width="1338" height="787" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934389c7e80680e03dfe2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>ON A HIGH: The inaugural session of the 12th Mountain Medicine World Congress in Kathmandu on Wednesday. More than 200 delegates from 30 countries are taking part. Photo: NAVIN BHATT</figcaption></figure>Nepal also has a long history of research in mountain medicine starting with the Silver Hut  studies in the early 1960s, one of the first to look at the effect of high altitude on the human physiology. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/review/The,448">Sherpa people</a> are probably the most studied, breath-analysed and blood-taken community in the world, as scientists try to find out how their bodies have evolved to high altitude.Even today, many Himalayan expeditions have medical research components, like the study of two mountaineers who were on Mt Everest this spring, while their twins stayed at sea level. The goal was to study possible changes in their gene expression.  Local organisers of the Kathmandu conference this week are mostly young Nepali doctors of the Mountain Medicine Society of Nepal (MMSN) which is dedicated to keeping the Himalaya safe by researching and increasing awareness of mountain medicine. They will be presenting findings on <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Altitude-illness-awareness,1381">altitude illness</a>, cold, avalanche hazards, search and rescue, exposure to ultraviolet radiation, etc. The conference has offered 80 scholarships for young Nepali doctors to attend the meeting with support from Maniraj Neupane, an internal medicine intern in Pittsburgh.The Himalayan Rescue Association has been a pioneer in mountain medicine in the Himalaya for almost 40 years, with its clinics in Pheriche and other popular trekking and mountaineering routes.Among the speakers at the conference are Peter Hackett who has done pioneering research into mountain medicine as medical director at the HRA, and David Shlim who has studied traveller’s diarrhoea. <h2>At Altitude</h2> <img width="640" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369343b9c7e80680e03dfe3jpeg.jpg" alt="">As trekkers, mountaineers and other visitors to the high mountains climb higher, they can be affected by altitude sickness especially in its life-threatening forms like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-altitude_cerebral_edema">high altitude cerebral edema (HACE)</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-altitude_pulmonary_edema">high altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE</a>).The initial symptoms of acute mountain sickness (headache and nausea) are warning signs that need to be heeded by descending immediately. Not heeding the signs means the lungs start filling up with water, and excessive brain swelling at altitude or HACE may lead to psychosis, violent behaviour, and eventual death.The Himalayan range, which includes 14 peaks above 8,000m, and begins where the European Alps reach the highest point. Hypoxia (lack of oxygen) stress that climbers feel in the Himalaya is much greater and therefore much more medically significant than in the Alps or perhaps even any other mountain range in the world.In his inaugural keynote to the Congress in Kathmandu on Wednesday, Peter Hackett reminded the audience that the best antidote to altitude illness is still to take the patient down while administering bottled oxygen. <img width="312" height="850" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369343d9c7e80680e03dfe4jpeg.jpg" alt="">

High Alert

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

altitude-sickness

Nepal trekking industry in damage control mode

High Alert

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138