What is common across all major political parties contesting the election on Friday is that they are all led by influential men.&nbsp;
Rabi Lamichhane + Balendra Shah duo head the RSP, Gagan Thapa leads the Nepali Congress (NC), the UML’ s K P Oli is still leader, Kulman Ghising is the founder and leader of the Ujyalo Nepal Party, and there is Harka Sampang of the Shram Sanskriti Party.&nbsp;
These men do not just lead the parties, they are the parties. Their authority within the party is largely uncontested and is sustained through loyalty to the deeply familiar Nepali figure of the Dai or Ba, the elder brother or father who is trusted, defended, and followed.
For the most part, they do not exert influence due to leadership skills but through a reinforcement of the idea that their leadership is the solution to the political crisis facing Nepal. Around these men is a loyal orbit of supporters, extending from central committee members to party cadres, mostly men.
Supporters amplify the idea of their chosen leadership and defend them at all cost in the public sphere, and especially on social media where polarising and controversial speech is rewarded by the design feature of the platforms.
Only 395 out of the 3,484 first-past-the-post (FPTP) candidates are women, in the upcoming elections. Of the biggest parties, the NC has only 6.67% women, UML 7.92%, NCP 6,90 %, RSP 9.73%, Shram Sanskriti Party 6.42%, UNP 5.79% and Janata Samajwadi party 8.41%.&nbsp;
The highest among the parties is not even 10%. The numbers represent the interconnected manospheres that pervade all layers of Nepali politics — it is not merely exclusion, but a systematic structuring of gender in politics.
Manosphere as an umbrella term for online communities that have increasingly promoted narrow and aggressive definitions of what it means to be a man, and the false narrative that feminism and gender equality have come at the cost of men’s rights. These communities promote the idea that emotional control, material wealth, physical appearance and dominance, especially over women, are markers of male worth.
It is an internet phenomenon, but it also relates to how men have hoarded power and taken up space in Nepali politics that constitutionally belongs to women, without exception of a single major party. While certainly the leaders of the parties are not spearheading manospheres, their support systems and structural organisation show characteristics akin to one.
A distinct feature of a manosphere is the attitude of rejection it carries towards liberalism, democratic pillars of inclusion and participation, political correctness, and they distort biology and evolution in argument of restrictive gender roles. They assign men as de facto leaders and women as followers, if not adversaries. Manospheres operate with an underlying understanding that feminism or women empowerment is detrimental to men.
This feature of the manosphere is starkly visible in how women in politics have experienced this election, in their campaigning on social media. From Ranju Darshana to Nisha Adhikari to Reema Biswokarma, their social media posts have comments from people trying to tell them of their place in society.
A pregnant politician and two artists turned politicians, are routinely told that their pursuit of leadership is not what the society needs. Even Prime Minister Sushila Karki was vilified publicly by Durga Prasai publicly, and was met with laughter from the circle of people around him.
Digital platforms have become an open arena for misogynistic attacks against women, often delegitimising their political participation rather than hosting democratic dialogue. Women who ascribe to the idea of the leadership archetype endorsed by the manosphere, are lauded for their participation. Responses to the speech of the RSP’s Sobita Gautam in Janakpur is an example.
Another symptom of the manosphere in Nepali politics is that it endorses violence, be it rhetorically, or equating it with leadership. By drooling over the violence spewed by them, instead of looking at evidence of capacity for governance, thoughts on inclusion, visions for development and much more, the definition of being a leader is narrowed.&nbsp;
When our politics are up for debate in social media platforms, unsurprisingly, vile and inflammatory language becomes a recipe for success, hence amplifying ‘leaders’ who revert to such tactics.
A study by researchers at Dublin City University found that newly created teen-boy accounts on TikTok and YouTube Shorts were algorithmically exposed to sexist and misogynistic content within about the first 23 minutes of use, even when they were not deliberately looking for it. So naturally, misogyny sells.&nbsp;
Besides, groups on Facebook have been mobilised during campaigning for elections. The most prominent men only group in Nepal MRR was disabled by Meta prior to the October 2022 election for violating their terms and conditions.
While it is not new that women in Nepali politics have endured misogyny, it has been magnified by how political discourses online occur in the manospheres. There is no conversation on how Gagan Thapa will not become the next Sher Bahadur Deuba, there is no debate on how the newly formed government will meet the constitutional requirement of having at least 33% women in the House — it is only about which man is more suitable to be the next prime minister of Nepal in a system that does not directly appoint them.
Even if we were to believe the misogyny online is not representative of our society’s views on women, the avalanche of toxicity on the platforms is something we have to learn to live with.&nbsp;
Women interested in politics must come prepared to endure hate. Likewise, if these comments are not real, and are bots or fake accounts that seek to demoralise women, then we must understand that the political powers of today are weaponising misogyny to prevent women from being leaders.
Ayusha Chalise is a communication and development scholar specialising in how politics is experienced in the digital space.

Ayusha Chalise

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Democracy in the manosphere

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412118/637222689c7e80680e0c02f4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/>A month after local polls, the Election Commission has proposed provincial and federal elections be held in the third week of November.This has stirred individual hopefuls to try to cash in on the momentum generated by independent candidates who were elected mayors -- like Balen Shah of Kathmandu, Harka Sampang of Dharan, Manoj Shah of Janakpur, and Gopal Hamal of Dhangadi.The popularity of Mayor Balen Shah in Kathmandu in particular has prompted young aspirants to announce candidacies in the capital's 20 constituencies, even before poll dates are announced.One of them is former Bibeksheel Sajha Party member Ranju Darshana who in 2017 finished a respectable third in Kathmandu’s mayoral race. Pukar Bam as well as Milan Pandey from the same party have also announced they will be running from Kathmandu 1 and 9.Former police chief Ramesh Kharel is standing. Manushi Yami Bhattarai, daughter of former PM and Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai is also in the race.Independent candidates who lost the mayoral race for Kathmandu in May do not seem deterred either. Suman Sayami who finished fourth wants to stand for the federal parliament.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/">Nepal’s local polls a rehearsal for federal elections</a>, Shristi KarkiMedia personalities, economists, as well as celebrities and social media influencers are also expected to announce their candidacies.Independent candidates did well in the May polls because of public disenchantment with established parties – proving that younger Nepalis are now more informed, engaged and interested in politics.Scandals this month involving the finance minister, embossed license plates and other scams will further harm public perception of the 5-party coalition.However, dissatisfaction with mainstream politicians has reached a point where those who have declared their candidacy run the risk of forming a cult of personality which could overshadow their platform and agenda.Even as the country gets ready for November, Nepali politics is once more embroiled in a geopolitical debate about whether Nepal should be part of the American State Partnership Program (SPP) for military disaster response.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Rise of the independents</a>, EditorialThe opposition UML and even members of Prime Minister Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC) have demanded clarification in Parliament. Deuba tried to soothe ruffled feathers within the governing alliance on Wednesday, assuring partners that he will not entertain the American program.Coalition members NC, Maoists and Unified Socialists did well in local polls. But the coalition is also in trouble because JSP and the breakaway LSP lost their Madhes Province strongholds like Janakpur and Birganj. And now JSP leaders Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are having a public spat.The SPP is polarising Nepali politics just as the US-supported MCC did in previous years.This could once again bring together the Maoists, UML and Unified Socialists, which were all part of the monolithic Nepal Communist Party in 2018.What worries some Congressites is that if the SPP debate escalates, it could break the coalition, and leave their party to fight elections alone.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-alt-right-falls-off-the-map/">Nepal’s alt-right falls off the map</a>, Nishnu Thing

Shristi Karki

SNOWBALEN

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221869c7e80680e0c02bfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>The swearing-in ceremony on 30 May of the youthful new leadership of Kathmandu Metropolitan City was a sight to behold.Out in front were <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mayor Balen Shah</a>, 32, and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, 29 (pictured). The smug men from mainstream parties were standing behind the two. This is the Gen Next of Nepali politics, a symbolic handover of power from the past to the future.As promised, Mayor Shah broadcast live to the public the first meeting of his city council. Chair Nabaraj Parajuli of Ward 32 told the mayor in a patronising and contemptuous tone: “Be careful what you say, you are all by yourself here.”Introducing himself, Harilal Tandukar of Ward 11 did not like the meeting being live online, and said so derisively. Mukunda Rijal of Ward 16 yelled as if he was addressing a street rally.It is natural that these endangered species of Nepali politics feel <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">threatened by the youthful new leaders</a>. If they use such disparaging language against a newly-elected mayor, how will they treat their electorate? All cities and municipalities should beam their council meetings live, so citizens know what the candidates they voted for are really like.There were some ward chairs like Bhuvan Lama of #6 who were appreciative, and offered Shah and Dangol useful suggestions. And over in Lalitpur, re-elected mayor Chair Babu Maharjan was full of praise for the youthful new leadership of the city’s wards.Having these transparent meetings has been welcomed by most, but it is understandable that elected candidates from traditional parties who have nothing to show for the past five years but mismanagement and malfeasance who do not like it. They are used to murky backroom deals.Transparency is the beauty of democracy. By beaming live the first meeting, the new mayor showed citizens who is who.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221899c7e80680e0c02c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365">Local leaders from tainted parties which have dominated Nepali politics thus far and have profited from it are waiting for the new mayor to fail, or conspiring to put obstacles along his way. Mayor Shah is already facing roadblocks in his effort to resolve <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-load-of-rubbish-kathmandus-garbage-problem,4039" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu’s garbage management problem</a>.This is not new, the established parties always let the trash pile up to blame it on each other. This time, they are colluding to blame a new independent mayor. It was because the meeting was live that Kathmandu’s residents got to know what the problem at the landfill site is: a waste management crisis that took three decades of misrule by the main parties cannot be removed overnight.“We have nothing to hide, we have to work together for the welfare of our citizens,” Mayor Balen told the open meeting.This election proved that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-alt-right-falls-off-the-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's voters are changing their mindset</a>. They are abandoning old vote bank politics to reward candidates who show promise, who are not tainted by their parties' past. They are watching carefully to see if the parties they once supported will allow independent candidates to perform.Social media platforms now amplify the voice to voters to warn the old guard not to obstruct those who want to get things done. And going by the reaction on Facebook and TikTok, there is overwhelming support for giving Balen and Sunita the chance to deliver on their election promises.It is an indication of a rising alarm among the tried, tested and failed politicians that they are accusing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/making-kathmandu-great-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Balen Shah</a> of supporting a partyless system, or the king. Some veteran journalists are even more virulent than politicians in their dismissal of the ‘Balen phenomenon’.Let the rise of the independents be a lesson to the main parties to clean up their act before <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> in November.Adapted from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/130476" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali original</a> in Himalkhabar.com

Nepal's Gen Next

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218069c7e80680e0baa1ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1062" height="830"/><figcaption>Balen campaigning in Kathmandu last week. Photo: BalenShah/Instagram</figcaption></figure>On Election Day on 13 May, I walked to a corner grocery store in my neighbourhood. The shopkeeper was all smiles as he showed me the blue dye on his left thumbnail. He had just voted for the rapper Balen Shah as Kathmandu’s new mayor.What made him reject all the other big name candidates: the opposition UML’s former mayor Keshab Sthapit, or Srijana Singh, the wife of Nepali Congress leader Prakash Man Singh and the common candidate of the ruling coalition? Was he disillusioned with the main parties?“Not really,” he replied. “I just like Balen. He talks sense.”More than anything else, Balen has won over even earlier skeptics with his passionate, no-nonsense talk, and his refusal to demean his rival candidates. “The others were busy hurling insults at each other, Balen has been above that, he just puts forward his ideas and plans for when he is elected,” the shopkeeper said.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/local-poll-national-impact/">Local poll, national impact</a>, Nepali TimesMany voters are enthusiastic about Balen’s clear-cut message that it is possible to make Kathmandu a livable and vibrant city. People in other municipalities say in social media posts that they wish they had a Balen, too. But even though the independent candidate has taken social media by storm, Nepal’s national press largely ignored him until his vote count started going up.It was clear in the days before voting that the ‘Balen Phenomenon’ was not just a social media frenzy. Even people known to have aligned with established parties said they voted for the rapper and activist.Nepalis seem to be looking to the future where there is a space for new ideas and new faces. But the media and the so-called intellectuals have long ignored this aspiration of citizens, tangling them in coverage of the blow-by-blow account of the power struggles between and within the main parties.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218089c7e80680e0baa1fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1174" height="586">Balen is surging ahead in the vote count, and things could still go in favour of Sthapit or Singh. But his strong showing suggests that not just the people of Kathmandu, but Nepalis in general would also have voted for alternative candidates given the choice.Initially, established parties saw the youth's inclination towards Balen as a mere aberration -- dismissing it as a fringe protest vote by young people who did not ‘understand politics’. It turns out young Nepalis do not really want to understand that brand of established politics.There is a cabal of mainstream politicians and journalists who have pre-defined ideas about who ‘understands politics’ and who does not. These are the very people who are ever ready to bring down any change seeker. Their world revolves around others like them, confined to echo chambers.Even the new crop of writers and intellectuals have not risen above this mindset. They are complacent just having their mug-shots on the op-ed pages, or their talking heads on the television studios in the world of you-scratch-my-back-I-scratch-yours.As long as the politics is confined to the opinions of this select few, it is not politics at all. It is a fraud on the Nepali people. Understanding the hypocrisy of leaders alone does not mean one has a good grasp of politics. Knowing and understanding policies that influence the lives of citizens is what counts, and anyone seeking real change has to be for this.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372180b9c7e80680e0baa20jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1122" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Seasoned commentators on social media, politicians and some in the media do not like this. Political parties are paranoid about new people in leadership roles who challenge their nepotism -- putting up wives, sons, daughters as mayoral candidates, or using ethnicity as a card.Since the 2006 People’s Movement, a new generation with modern thinking has emerged. Their needs and desires are far beyond the imagination of entrenched commentators who, along with politicians, benefit from perpetuating the status quo. This is why we have a five-time prime minister, and the same old faces in politics from 25 years ago.But they see the Balen Shah phenomenon as a threat, and are countering it as only they know how: by providing astrological proof that he will not win, or by abusing him on Twitter.  This is all they know how to do, ‘leaders’ who have come to power by beheading people and sacrificing the innocent, this is how they define ‘revolution’.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-vote-counts/">Every vote counts, as counting begins in Nepal</a>, Shristi KarkiUnfortunately, the ‘VIP’ media is in thrall of these obsolete leaders and their brand of politics. Editors who give space and airtime to them are supposed to be defending  democracy and the free press, but refuse to open their doors to pluralism and diversity.There is now a wide chasm between what media commentators predict versus what is actually happening on the ground. But that is the beauty of democracy. Citizens can now see what the media and commentators are missing or not reporting. They know who is not performing. They do not need the mainstream press anymore to form their opinion, and at election time they respond by backing someone like Balen Shah.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372180e9c7e80680e0baa21jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1068" height="838"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Most media commentators are frozen in time, and cannot embrace the hope of tomorrow. Time is running out for Nepal, and there is no time to play the same old tricks on the people.Many ‘VIP' commentators did not give Balen’s candidacy much credence at first. We could see that they were propagating their tired old reasonings to support limited politics.When they did mention Balen, it was to put him down by calling him a ‘singer boy’, ‘the guy in shades’, or criticising him for draping himself in the Nepali flag while campaigning.They never commended him for the charity work he did in feeding the destitute during the 2020 lockdowns. They air-brushed his engineering background, and activist role in heritage conservation and solid waste management. But he refused to stoop as low as his opponents to engage in name-calling and sleazy campaigning. So, the VIPs of the media dismissed him, they saw no political future for his candidacy.Balen also exposed ‘youth’ leaders of mainstream parties for behaving just like the generation ahead of them who are responsible for ruining the country. Take Ram Kumari Jhankri of the CPN-US who struts on stage like a diva, does not bother to thank the thousands who have gathered, takes off her jacket and throws it at the audience as if she is some rock star.The other ‘young turk’ who appears to be too busy riding the media wave and being loyal to his party bosses to care about what the people really want is Gagan Thapa of the Nepali Congress. We do not hear much about the change and reforms demanded by society from him anymore. He is too busy insulting the other side.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218119c7e80680e0baa22jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1062" height="870"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Traditional leaders and their youth emulators should have learnt by now that voters are sick of their games. Even the parties that called themselves ‘alternative’ provide no alternative — they have spent the entire campaign running down rivals.Balen has learnt from everyone else’s mis-steps. He did not even bother to reply to candidates who abused him in the hustings. This convinced voters young and old that he is different, and even those initially skeptical of him seem to have changed their minds.Conventional media commentators have not been able to quite decide what to make of Citizen Balen. The 32-year-old rapper, structural engineer and activist is difficult to pigeonhole, but there is no denying his charisma and commitment for change.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218149c7e80680e0baa23jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="890" height="604"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>When they did deign to take notice of the rapper, they dismissed his popularity as an offshoot of the dramatic success of the Bibeksheel and Sajha parties in the 2017 local elections in Kathmandu — comparing the ‘Balen craze’ to the Ranju Darshana phenomenon.But Balen and Ranju are different. Five years ago, voters in Kathmandu were attracted to a fresh young female candidate because she was such a departure from the established parties. The media could not project her enough — even commenting on the colour of her sari (blue) when she attended an unofficial reception.This time, the mainstream press largely ignored Balen before the election. But due to his meteoric rise in social media, Balen started shining so brightly that editors have now been forced to take notice.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218179c7e80680e0baa24jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1932" height="1058"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Balen is not a media product, this is a spontaneous outburst of outrage against established politicians and their neglect of the people’s needs -- especially those who led Kathmandu Metropolitan City for the past five years. Voters liked what they saw in this young bearded candidate in shades who spoke in a dignified tone, with authority based on his own experience and research, and was not afraid to take on the dominant dinosaurs of Nepali politics.Balen has inspired especially the young with his can-do ambition to make Kathmandu shine again. He has given them hope, when others spread cynicism and negativity. He is a river trying to drain the putrid swamp of Kathmandu’s politics. All the columnists with their scripted sentences now need to prepare themselves to be proven wrong.The Balen Phenomenon has exposed the gulf between the mainstream media and Nepali society. The press is made up of a handful of people, and a handful of people own it. Balen’s generation has no time for them, and the media they control.There is a raw new message going out: Nepalis have to forge ahead on their own and no longer rely on the mainstream parties and media that never reflected their hopes and aspirations.There is a hurricane on the horizon that will soon blow away the dominance of the few men who control politics, society and information.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/election-infowar-goes-digital/">Election infowar goes digital</a>, Ramesh Kumar

Kathmandu’s ‘Balen Phenomenon’

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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