<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412118/637222689c7e80680e0c02f4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/>A month after local polls, the Election Commission has proposed provincial and federal elections be held in the third week of November.This has stirred individual hopefuls to try to cash in on the momentum generated by independent candidates who were elected mayors -- like Balen Shah of Kathmandu, Harka Sampang of Dharan, Manoj Shah of Janakpur, and Gopal Hamal of Dhangadi.The popularity of Mayor Balen Shah in Kathmandu in particular has prompted young aspirants to announce candidacies in the capital's 20 constituencies, even before poll dates are announced.One of them is former Bibeksheel Sajha Party member Ranju Darshana who in 2017 finished a respectable third in Kathmandu’s mayoral race. Pukar Bam as well as Milan Pandey from the same party have also announced they will be running from Kathmandu 1 and 9.Former police chief Ramesh Kharel is standing. Manushi Yami Bhattarai, daughter of former PM and Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai is also in the race.Independent candidates who lost the mayoral race for Kathmandu in May do not seem deterred either. Suman Sayami who finished fourth wants to stand for the federal parliament.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/">Nepal’s local polls a rehearsal for federal elections</a>, Shristi KarkiMedia personalities, economists, as well as celebrities and social media influencers are also expected to announce their candidacies.Independent candidates did well in the May polls because of public disenchantment with established parties – proving that younger Nepalis are now more informed, engaged and interested in politics.Scandals this month involving the finance minister, embossed license plates and other scams will further harm public perception of the 5-party coalition.However, dissatisfaction with mainstream politicians has reached a point where those who have declared their candidacy run the risk of forming a cult of personality which could overshadow their platform and agenda.Even as the country gets ready for November, Nepali politics is once more embroiled in a geopolitical debate about whether Nepal should be part of the American State Partnership Program (SPP) for military disaster response.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Rise of the independents</a>, EditorialThe opposition UML and even members of Prime Minister Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC) have demanded clarification in Parliament. Deuba tried to soothe ruffled feathers within the governing alliance on Wednesday, assuring partners that he will not entertain the American program.Coalition members NC, Maoists and Unified Socialists did well in local polls. But the coalition is also in trouble because JSP and the breakaway LSP lost their Madhes Province strongholds like Janakpur and Birganj. And now JSP leaders Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are having a public spat.The SPP is polarising Nepali politics just as the US-supported MCC did in previous years.This could once again bring together the Maoists, UML and Unified Socialists, which were all part of the monolithic Nepal Communist Party in 2018.What worries some Congressites is that if the SPP debate escalates, it could break the coalition, and leave their party to fight elections alone.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-alt-right-falls-off-the-map/">Nepal’s alt-right falls off the map</a>, Nishnu Thing

Shristi Karki

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SNOWBALEN

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221869c7e80680e0c02bfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>The swearing-in ceremony on 30 May of the youthful new leadership of Kathmandu Metropolitan City was a sight to behold.Out in front were <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mayor Balen Shah</a>, 32, and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, 29 (pictured). The smug men from mainstream parties were standing behind the two. This is the Gen Next of Nepali politics, a symbolic handover of power from the past to the future.As promised, Mayor Shah broadcast live to the public the first meeting of his city council. Chair Nabaraj Parajuli of Ward 32 told the mayor in a patronising and contemptuous tone: “Be careful what you say, you are all by yourself here.”Introducing himself, Harilal Tandukar of Ward 11 did not like the meeting being live online, and said so derisively. Mukunda Rijal of Ward 16 yelled as if he was addressing a street rally.It is natural that these endangered species of Nepali politics feel <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">threatened by the youthful new leaders</a>. If they use such disparaging language against a newly-elected mayor, how will they treat their electorate? All cities and municipalities should beam their council meetings live, so citizens know what the candidates they voted for are really like.There were some ward chairs like Bhuvan Lama of #6 who were appreciative, and offered Shah and Dangol useful suggestions. And over in Lalitpur, re-elected mayor Chair Babu Maharjan was full of praise for the youthful new leadership of the city’s wards.Having these transparent meetings has been welcomed by most, but it is understandable that elected candidates from traditional parties who have nothing to show for the past five years but mismanagement and malfeasance who do not like it. They are used to murky backroom deals.Transparency is the beauty of democracy. By beaming live the first meeting, the new mayor showed citizens who is who.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221899c7e80680e0c02c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365">Local leaders from tainted parties which have dominated Nepali politics thus far and have profited from it are waiting for the new mayor to fail, or conspiring to put obstacles along his way. Mayor Shah is already facing roadblocks in his effort to resolve <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-load-of-rubbish-kathmandus-garbage-problem,4039" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu’s garbage management problem</a>.This is not new, the established parties always let the trash pile up to blame it on each other. This time, they are colluding to blame a new independent mayor. It was because the meeting was live that Kathmandu’s residents got to know what the problem at the landfill site is: a waste management crisis that took three decades of misrule by the main parties cannot be removed overnight.“We have nothing to hide, we have to work together for the welfare of our citizens,” Mayor Balen told the open meeting.This election proved that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-alt-right-falls-off-the-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's voters are changing their mindset</a>. They are abandoning old vote bank politics to reward candidates who show promise, who are not tainted by their parties' past. They are watching carefully to see if the parties they once supported will allow independent candidates to perform.Social media platforms now amplify the voice to voters to warn the old guard not to obstruct those who want to get things done. And going by the reaction on Facebook and TikTok, there is overwhelming support for giving Balen and Sunita the chance to deliver on their election promises.It is an indication of a rising alarm among the tried, tested and failed politicians that they are accusing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/making-kathmandu-great-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Balen Shah</a> of supporting a partyless system, or the king. Some veteran journalists are even more virulent than politicians in their dismissal of the ‘Balen phenomenon’.Let the rise of the independents be a lesson to the main parties to clean up their act before <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> in November.Adapted from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/130476" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali original</a> in Himalkhabar.com

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Nepal's Gen Next

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218069c7e80680e0baa1ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1062" height="830"/><figcaption>Balen campaigning in Kathmandu last week. Photo: BalenShah/Instagram</figcaption></figure>On Election Day on 13 May, I walked to a corner grocery store in my neighbourhood. The shopkeeper was all smiles as he showed me the blue dye on his left thumbnail. He had just voted for the rapper Balen Shah as Kathmandu’s new mayor.What made him reject all the other big name candidates: the opposition UML’s former mayor Keshab Sthapit, or Srijana Singh, the wife of Nepali Congress leader Prakash Man Singh and the common candidate of the ruling coalition? Was he disillusioned with the main parties?“Not really,” he replied. “I just like Balen. He talks sense.”More than anything else, Balen has won over even earlier skeptics with his passionate, no-nonsense talk, and his refusal to demean his rival candidates. “The others were busy hurling insults at each other, Balen has been above that, he just puts forward his ideas and plans for when he is elected,” the shopkeeper said.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/local-poll-national-impact/">Local poll, national impact</a>, Nepali TimesMany voters are enthusiastic about Balen’s clear-cut message that it is possible to make Kathmandu a livable and vibrant city. People in other municipalities say in social media posts that they wish they had a Balen, too. But even though the independent candidate has taken social media by storm, Nepal’s national press largely ignored him until his vote count started going up.It was clear in the days before voting that the ‘Balen Phenomenon’ was not just a social media frenzy. Even people known to have aligned with established parties said they voted for the rapper and activist.Nepalis seem to be looking to the future where there is a space for new ideas and new faces. But the media and the so-called intellectuals have long ignored this aspiration of citizens, tangling them in coverage of the blow-by-blow account of the power struggles between and within the main parties.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218089c7e80680e0baa1fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1174" height="586">Balen is surging ahead in the vote count, and things could still go in favour of Sthapit or Singh. But his strong showing suggests that not just the people of Kathmandu, but Nepalis in general would also have voted for alternative candidates given the choice.Initially, established parties saw the youth's inclination towards Balen as a mere aberration -- dismissing it as a fringe protest vote by young people who did not ‘understand politics’. It turns out young Nepalis do not really want to understand that brand of established politics.There is a cabal of mainstream politicians and journalists who have pre-defined ideas about who ‘understands politics’ and who does not. These are the very people who are ever ready to bring down any change seeker. Their world revolves around others like them, confined to echo chambers.Even the new crop of writers and intellectuals have not risen above this mindset. They are complacent just having their mug-shots on the op-ed pages, or their talking heads on the television studios in the world of you-scratch-my-back-I-scratch-yours.As long as the politics is confined to the opinions of this select few, it is not politics at all. It is a fraud on the Nepali people. Understanding the hypocrisy of leaders alone does not mean one has a good grasp of politics. Knowing and understanding policies that influence the lives of citizens is what counts, and anyone seeking real change has to be for this.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372180b9c7e80680e0baa20jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1122" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Seasoned commentators on social media, politicians and some in the media do not like this. Political parties are paranoid about new people in leadership roles who challenge their nepotism -- putting up wives, sons, daughters as mayoral candidates, or using ethnicity as a card.Since the 2006 People’s Movement, a new generation with modern thinking has emerged. Their needs and desires are far beyond the imagination of entrenched commentators who, along with politicians, benefit from perpetuating the status quo. This is why we have a five-time prime minister, and the same old faces in politics from 25 years ago.But they see the Balen Shah phenomenon as a threat, and are countering it as only they know how: by providing astrological proof that he will not win, or by abusing him on Twitter.  This is all they know how to do, ‘leaders’ who have come to power by beheading people and sacrificing the innocent, this is how they define ‘revolution’.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-vote-counts/">Every vote counts, as counting begins in Nepal</a>, Shristi KarkiUnfortunately, the ‘VIP’ media is in thrall of these obsolete leaders and their brand of politics. Editors who give space and airtime to them are supposed to be defending  democracy and the free press, but refuse to open their doors to pluralism and diversity.There is now a wide chasm between what media commentators predict versus what is actually happening on the ground. But that is the beauty of democracy. Citizens can now see what the media and commentators are missing or not reporting. They know who is not performing. They do not need the mainstream press anymore to form their opinion, and at election time they respond by backing someone like Balen Shah.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372180e9c7e80680e0baa21jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1068" height="838"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Most media commentators are frozen in time, and cannot embrace the hope of tomorrow. Time is running out for Nepal, and there is no time to play the same old tricks on the people.Many ‘VIP' commentators did not give Balen’s candidacy much credence at first. We could see that they were propagating their tired old reasonings to support limited politics.When they did mention Balen, it was to put him down by calling him a ‘singer boy’, ‘the guy in shades’, or criticising him for draping himself in the Nepali flag while campaigning.They never commended him for the charity work he did in feeding the destitute during the 2020 lockdowns. They air-brushed his engineering background, and activist role in heritage conservation and solid waste management. But he refused to stoop as low as his opponents to engage in name-calling and sleazy campaigning. So, the VIPs of the media dismissed him, they saw no political future for his candidacy.Balen also exposed ‘youth’ leaders of mainstream parties for behaving just like the generation ahead of them who are responsible for ruining the country. Take Ram Kumari Jhankri of the CPN-US who struts on stage like a diva, does not bother to thank the thousands who have gathered, takes off her jacket and throws it at the audience as if she is some rock star.The other ‘young turk’ who appears to be too busy riding the media wave and being loyal to his party bosses to care about what the people really want is Gagan Thapa of the Nepali Congress. We do not hear much about the change and reforms demanded by society from him anymore. He is too busy insulting the other side.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218119c7e80680e0baa22jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1062" height="870"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Traditional leaders and their youth emulators should have learnt by now that voters are sick of their games. Even the parties that called themselves ‘alternative’ provide no alternative — they have spent the entire campaign running down rivals.Balen has learnt from everyone else’s mis-steps. He did not even bother to reply to candidates who abused him in the hustings. This convinced voters young and old that he is different, and even those initially skeptical of him seem to have changed their minds.Conventional media commentators have not been able to quite decide what to make of Citizen Balen. The 32-year-old rapper, structural engineer and activist is difficult to pigeonhole, but there is no denying his charisma and commitment for change.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218149c7e80680e0baa23jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="890" height="604"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>When they did deign to take notice of the rapper, they dismissed his popularity as an offshoot of the dramatic success of the Bibeksheel and Sajha parties in the 2017 local elections in Kathmandu — comparing the ‘Balen craze’ to the Ranju Darshana phenomenon.But Balen and Ranju are different. Five years ago, voters in Kathmandu were attracted to a fresh young female candidate because she was such a departure from the established parties. The media could not project her enough — even commenting on the colour of her sari (blue) when she attended an unofficial reception.This time, the mainstream press largely ignored Balen before the election. But due to his meteoric rise in social media, Balen started shining so brightly that editors have now been forced to take notice.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218179c7e80680e0baa24jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1932" height="1058"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Balen is not a media product, this is a spontaneous outburst of outrage against established politicians and their neglect of the people’s needs -- especially those who led Kathmandu Metropolitan City for the past five years. Voters liked what they saw in this young bearded candidate in shades who spoke in a dignified tone, with authority based on his own experience and research, and was not afraid to take on the dominant dinosaurs of Nepali politics.Balen has inspired especially the young with his can-do ambition to make Kathmandu shine again. He has given them hope, when others spread cynicism and negativity. He is a river trying to drain the putrid swamp of Kathmandu’s politics. All the columnists with their scripted sentences now need to prepare themselves to be proven wrong.The Balen Phenomenon has exposed the gulf between the mainstream media and Nepali society. The press is made up of a handful of people, and a handful of people own it. Balen’s generation has no time for them, and the media they control.There is a raw new message going out: Nepalis have to forge ahead on their own and no longer rely on the mainstream parties and media that never reflected their hopes and aspirations.There is a hurricane on the horizon that will soon blow away the dominance of the few men who control politics, society and information.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/election-infowar-goes-digital/">Election infowar goes digital</a>, Ramesh Kumar

Kathmandu’s ‘Balen Phenomenon’

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.