<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109131156/636ba4269c7e80680e073652jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1025" height="741"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>After teetering at the brink of a split several times, the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) appears to have stepped back from the edge once more. But no one knows for how long.After the latest of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enough-already/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enough-already/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGqnTk_1mYrNh2hMm2QQ5PW_PdjGQ">numerous showdowns last week</a> during which two rival factions held parallel meetings, factions led by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/push-and-pull-of-nepali-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/push-and-pull-of-nepali-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGPV4FdiEDnv_Xew0pMnoIGcCMB_A">Prime Minister K P Oli and party co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal</a> appear to have decided not to let their relations deteriorate any further.They have not yet buried the hatchet, but they at least seem to be willing to smoke the peace pipe. Oli and Dahal may also have realised that the NCP itself is being harmed by a surge of negative comments on social media and op-eds about their ego-clash holding the party and country hostage at a time of multiple crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.The two leaders as well as members of their factions seem, therefore, to have retreated from the situation on 28 July in which Prime Minister Oli cancelled a scheduled Stranding Committee meeting that was to deliberate on demands for his resignation, but the Dahal faction went to Baluwatar anyway and held the meeting.The standoff in the Standing Committee appears to have woken everyone up to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ruling-party-on-verge-of-split/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ruling-party-on-verge-of-split/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGPS8ZkzpbL2krOvFcIw8d9e0tHBQ">real possibility of a party split</a>, which all NCP leaders (including Oli and Dahal) want to avoid at all costs. Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi seems to have got the message across <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEGBziqad0_uOtczkaFfLpMLufCBw">through her intense lobbying</a> last month that Beijing would like the party to stay united.“We have overcome a big hurdle by at least agreeing to disagree, and move forward,” said Central Committee member Kiran Gurung, one of the younger crop of leaders trying to find a compromise. “The party came very close to the edge of the cliff, and stopped itself from falling.”The Oli and Dahal factions are now said to be using the ceasefire period brokered by second tier leaders to tone down their rhetoric, and hold mediation talks through interlocutors. However, there does not seem to be a clear road map yet.There is a realisation that although it is a confrontation between two factions, it is the two co-chairs Oli and Dahal who have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/alpha-males/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/alpha-males/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHWm2SdXNX7xAkXRu3UIfDO52SUDg">sort out their differences and build trust</a>. Neither side wants to believe the other because they have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/you-stab-my-back-i-stab-yours/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/you-stab-my-back-i-stab-yours/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596452361144000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHG4j_ftQj_wflHuge7M7sFfuqSEg">double crossed by each other so often.</a>“We have hit rock bottom in this party power struggle, from here there is nowhere to go but up,” says Mani Thapa, another NCP leader who is trying to broker a deal.Party insiders interviewed for this article say that NCP leader and former home minister Bam Dev Gautam’s middle of the road six-point statement on 28 July was a catalyst to reduce tension in the party. The plan would allow Oli to stay on in both posts, while meeting Dahal’s demand for election to sole party chair during the party convention.Prime Minister Oli paid Gautam a surprise visit at his residence on 29 July after he issued the statement to gauge reactions from fellow comrades to the plan. And it was Gautam and Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa’s decision to side with Oli for now that seems to have isolated Dahal.Dahal is also suspicious that Oli may pull another fast one by tempting Madhav Kumar Nepal away from his faction by dangling the carrot of party executive chair instead of him. By making himself a kingmaker in this feud, Gautam has also reportedly got an assurance of being nominated to the Upper House from where he can either be made Finance Minister in place of Yubaraj Khatiwada, or even prime minister.Gautam has a reputation for flip-flopping, but has pivoted himself into an important role in the party. Oli has reportedly expressed a desire to step down in February after the party’s unity convention in November, and this commitment appears to have brought down the temperature somewhat.Says another NCP leader Thakur Gaire: “I don’t think the differences between Comrades Oli and Dahal is so irreconcilable that the party has to split over them. The ball is now both their courts.”

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Nepal ruling party pulls back from split (again)

<figure><img width="3000" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121124/636b8dd99c7e80680e06b36fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Clockwise from below, right: Prime Minister K P Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Ishwar Pokharel, Bishnu Poudel, Ram Bahadur Thapa, Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Bam Dev Gautam and Jhalnath Khanal. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Even as the country is in the throes of the COVID-19 crisis, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/playing-politics-in-a-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">power struggle between Prime Minister Oli and his opponents with the ruling Nepal Communist Party</a> is reaching a climax, with some in the party’s 9-member secretariat calling on him to step down. The prime minister, three former prime ministers opposed to him and other secretariat members wore masks and maintained physical distancing at separate tables during the meeting on Wednesday (photo, above). But it was the political distance between them that was more perceptible.Sources present said the secretariat score was 5-4 against Oli, with the prime minister desperately trying to woo two critical members, Bam Dev Gautam and Madhav Kumar Nepal, to his side. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/playing-politics-in-a-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Playing politics in a pandemic</a>, Editorial<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lockdown-crackdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lockdown crackdown</a>, Editorial Speaking first at the meeting, Pushpa Kamal Dahal directly demanded that Oli step down from prime ministership, accusing him of trying to split the party. This was expected, since Dahal and Oli have no love lost for each other, and have long duelled for prime ministership, even after settling to share the chairmanship of the party.But what came next shocked those present, a source said, and changed the entire tone of the meeting. Speaking next, Oli said that after the coronavirus crisis was over, he would step down and offer the prime ministership to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/alpha-males/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bam Dev Gautam</a>  To make this possible, he said Gautam could be nominated to the Upper House, or be made to win a by-election to be an MP.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/alpha-males/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alpha males</a>, Kunda DixitGautam has been home minister several times in previous UML governments, and has long been angling for prime ministership, even after he lost his parliamentary seat in the 2017 election. By putting forward Gautam’s name as successor, Oli was not just trying to distract attention from matter at hand, but also to get a secretariat member on his side. The tactic appears to have worked because Gautam was mollified, and muted his criticism of Oli.Further, to appease another vocal critic, Oli also proposed that Nepal be made the third NCP chair. However, Nepal was not taking the bait, and reiterated his demand that the prime minister step down. Political analysts said this was vintage Oli, who revelled in intrigue and divide-and-rule, and it once more showed that he was willing to fight to the bitter end despite the gathering storm around him. The secretariat meeting was adjourned till Saturday, giving both sides more time to win over or keep Nepal and Gautam to their respective sides. So far, Oli has his Defence Minister Ishwar Pokharel, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, trusted aide Bishnu Poudel on his side. Dahal has former prime minster Jhalnath Khanal and Narayan Kaji Shrestha supporting him. The wild cards are Nepal and Gautam.This was the first secretariat meeting after Oli got the Cabinet to pass and the President to endorse two controversial ordinances, which he had to retract last week after an uproar within the party. Oli and Dahal factions were busy all Wednesday in a signature campaign, but it is not clear which side has more support in the parliamentary party.NCP-watchers say the wily Oli may have thought he pulled a fast one, but it will not be so easy to get Bam Dev Gautam to succeed him. Oli seems to be driven by a single-minded desire to prevent Dahal from being the next prime minister. As the NCP in-fighting appeared to distract the nation’s attention away from the coronavirus lockdown and the impending economic crisis, 10 prominent civil society members issued a statement on Wednesday, saying that it was the wrong time to push the country towards instability with intra-party wrangling.Their statement said: ‘The power struggle within the ruling NCP is not just an internal matter. It has direct implication on the country’s long term national interest. We appeal to all political sides to desist from disturbing the country’s stability and to work together during this time of national crisis.’

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Physical distancing

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75e19c7e80680e062410jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1731"/><figcaption>Illustration : DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>There are signs that the power struggle between Prime Minister K P Oli and co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal is now reaching a climax.After <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-two-year-itch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two years of cohabitation</a> with the tussle between them increasingly playing out in public, the two top leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), are now on a head-on collision course.The outcome of this final bout will determine whether or not the NCP will split along its UML-Maoist fault line, who will become the next prime minister, and whether the spat will drag in the office of the President.Primarily, it is an ideological struggle between the social-democratic UML and the Maoists — the two parties that had a gunshot wedding for the 2017 election, after which conjugal relations have been rocky.Prime Minister Oli thinks Dahal is in the pockets of big business, is anti-democratic and has ambitions of becoming a strongman. Dahal has publicly declared his support for a directly elected executive presidency, obviously with himself as head of state and government. Hence, Oli wants to prevent Dahal from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/premier-league/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">succeeding him at all costs</a>.The problem is that Oli is now morally, politically and physically weak. Scandal after scandal involving his coterie have tarnished the prime minister’s image, and undermined his nationalist credentials. Dahal has managed to wean away former UML leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Bam Dev Gautam, and left Oli with only two loyalists in the nine-member NCP secretariat.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-troika/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Troika</a>, Kiran NepalDahal’s strategy is to keep chipping away at the UML citadel because without weakening it he cannot be the supreme leader of the united party. He is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-wait-and-wait-mode/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exploiting the disaffection towards Oli</a> among the UML rank and file, as well as dangling carrots in front of the prime minister’s erstwhile colleagues to get them to defect.Dahal has used every trick in the book: deploying the media to systematically demonise Oli and isolating him on matters like the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation</a> (MCC), <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/speechless/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the selection of a new speaker</a>, and the nomination of Gautam to the Upper House.The prime minister has not exactly helped his own cause by the lack of transparency of his business dealings, and other scandals involving trusted comrades like Gokul Baskota, who  resigned last week as Information Minister after an incriminating kickback tape was made public.Surprisingly, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has managed all this by staying out of the limelight, lobbying influencers from the shadows, and avoiding blame for his machinations — including getting the secretariat to install Gautam into the Upper House.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/premier-league/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Premier League</a>, EditorialOli wants to ensure Dahal doesn’t pull a fast one during his kidney transplant hospitalisation, even if it is by giving his ally President Bidya Devi Bhandari emergency powers.Party insiders say Dahal’s strategy is to take full control of the NCP, make Bam Dev Gautam prime minister, replace Bhandari with either Nepal or Khanal as president, and then amend the constitution to declare an executive presidency.Both factions of the NCP now have a few more days before President Bhandari returns from a trip to the far west, after which a final showdown is expected, possibly next week.

Kunda Dixit

Alpha males

<figure><img width="673" height="404" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75cb9c7e80680e062407jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: HIMALKHABAR.COM</figcaption></figure>There is an old Hungarian proverb: ‘If you are among thieves, and you keep quiet, that makes you a thief as well.’The saying does not hold much weight in Nepali politics, where impunity has now been elevated to this government’s mission statement. There was the lack of rule of law before, but never has it been as blatant as it is today.A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-comrade-mahara/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Speaker of Parliament accused of attempted rape</a> is the same man who as Finance Minister ten years ago was caught on tape asking for Rs500 million from a Chinese contractor to buy off opposition legislators for a no-confidence vote. Needless to say, he never had to answer for the leaked tape, and two weeks ago he was acquitted by a district court on the rape charge as well. Meanwhile, a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/speechless/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder-accused who never answered for his war-era crime</a>, replaced him as Speaker.  The Minister of Information and Communication is caught on tape bargaining for a Rs700 million kickback from a commission agent supposedly representing a Swiss security printing supplier. He is forced to step down, but questions have arisen about his political patron, Prime Minister K P Oli. What did he know, and when did he know it?The scandals are coming thick and fast. Nepal has become a one-scam-a-day country. The Baluwatar real estate heist and the nefarious dealings that gave Yeti Holdings unprecedented access to royal assets administered by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Trust</a> have added to cumulative public disillusionment with the Oli administration.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-two-year-itch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The two-year itch</a>, EditorialAt a time when all these scandals are swirling about, and trending on social media, Prime Minister Oli staged a lavish birthday bash in his hometown at state expense this week (picture, above). Dignitaries fly over from Kathmandu in five helicopters, and even before the dust from the landing pad had settled, another Dynasty Air chopper arrived with an enormous birthday cake in the shape of a 3-D map of Nepal strapped to the back seat. We are living in a crony-communist Oligarchy. <figure><img width="1500" height="920" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75cd9c7e80680e062408jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>There is nothing wrong with a prime minister celebrating his 69th birthday, but PM Oli has done himself no favours by not paying attention to the optics. The Athrai birthday was timed badly and was in bad taste. And it was not the first time this has happened. A New Delhi five-star hotel sent a $10,000 bill to the Nepal government in 2016 when <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/02/19/oli-off-to-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oli celebrated his birthday there</a> during his first tenure as prime minister.Oli is known for carefully cultivating his public persona, and he should have known the social media reaction to heli-borne cakes and videos of birthday boy slicing into Nepal with a kitchen knife. It is looking more and more like the emperor has no idea he is naked.Oli is doing his nemesis, prime minister-in-waiting Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a great favour with these mis-steps. In fact, Dahal has only had to twiddle his thumbs, waiting for Oli to self-destruct. There is no love lost between these two Big Boys of the NCP, and it now looks like Dahal has the upper hand.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A morally weak, politically feeble and physically frail</a> Oli would like to have his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/premier-league/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">succession issue</a> sorted out before checking into hospital for his second kidney transplant. But Dahal is determined not to let that happen.In this elaborate chess game, Dahal’s primary aim is to undermine the foundation of the former UML rank and file, who still make up a significant block in the NCP. He knows he cannot make a dent at the cadre level, which is why he is peeling away top leaders like Jhalanath Khanal, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bam Dev Gautam from the Oli camp.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/awesome-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Awesome Party</a>, EditorialDahal advanced former UML leader Bam Dev Gautam into the Upper House this week. Gautam has been home minister thrice, and has a barely concealed ambition to be prime minister. The trouble is, he lost in the 2017 election.But Dahal’s move has spooked Oli, who has got Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel to deliver some Twitter broadsides, and to keep <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yubaraj Khatiwada on as Finance Minister</a> till the announcement of the annual budget even if his Upper House term is expiring on 8 March. Former Speaker Subhas Nembang has also come out strongly against Gautam being inducted into the Upper House, saying this sets a bad precedent.One danger is that President Bidya Devi Bhandari, who is close to Prime Minister Oli, will be dragged into the fray. The sooner this <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-wait-and-wait-mode/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paralysing power struggle in the NCP</a> is resolved, the better it is for Nepalis, for whom the electoral promise of ‘stability and prosperity’ has become a joke.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-troika/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Troika</a>, Editorial <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> In an editorial 10 years ago this week, we wrote about how political instability and corruption was hampering economic growth and scaring off investors. Unfortunately this is still the case. We have seen some significant growth in economy, but intense power struggle and polarisation with the ruling Nepal Communist Party has paralysed party decision-making and corruption has grown (the latest being Communication Minister Gokul Baskota’s printing press kickback scandal). Excerpt from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/491" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #491</a> of 26 Feburary-4 March 2010:In a scenario dominated by politics, we know we are crying in the wilderness to talk about the economy. But even if it is only for economic reasons, this government must be reformatted. The state has no credibility. The economy is on the verge of collapse.  <img width="320" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75d19c7e80680e062409jpeg.jpg" alt="">The cost of capital is so high that big projects are not viable anymore. Investors have fled, there is huge capital flight. Even the investors who are here are being harassed, as made evident by the ‘Maoists’ extortion of power projects. Businesses struggle to cope with the daily 12-hour power cuts. Corruption has never been worse than it is now.

THE  OLIGARCHY

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52c79c7e80680e052315jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1017"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI/BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>All <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-troika/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three senior leaders of the Nepal Communist Party</a> have the travel bug. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-1st-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prime Minister KP Oli</a> is off for a health check-up in Singapore after his transplanted kidneys reportedly started over-performing. Although his spokesman announced that Oli was paying his own hospital bills, the presence in Singapore this week of well-known medical industrialists raised questions about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-business-of-politics-undermines-nepals-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">favours being exchanged</a>.Oli’s party co-chair, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, just returned from the UAE after another of his mysterious visits. And Madhav Kumar Nepal has also been clocking frequent flier miles.Nepal’s cybersphere bristled with irreverent criticism of leaders gallivanting around while citizens back home suffer from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ravages of the monsoon</a>, and contractors with political protection go unpunished for uncompleted infrastructure.Nepalis had expected the NCP, with its two-thirds majority, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/own-worst-enemy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to deliver stability and better governance</a>, but disillusionment is growing about the paralysing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rift-in-nepals-ruling-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">factionalism within the ruling party</a>, as well as over provincial and local spheres of government being unable to deliver. An investigative report this week showed provinces spent Rs25 billion buying SUVs to travel on roads and bridges that are falling apart because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-klepto-republic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corruption</a>.Normally a government that faces such widespread criticism for non-performance would do a cabinet reshuffle to divert attention, but PM Oli is said to want to let the Dasain fever set in.Meanwhile, the three leaders are playing Chinese checkers, wooing each other’s loyalists — blurring the lines between former UML and former Maoists in the party. Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and Narayan Kaji Shrestha have been neutral, saying party unity is more important than joining any one faction. Even Bam Dev Gautam, who was firmly in the Dahal camp, appears to be wavering, and there is speculation Oli offered rewards.Oli could be waiting for the Dasain hiatus to get down to brass tacks on his reshuffle. The word is that heads will roll after the holidays, and the names Oli wants struck off include Water Minister Bina Magar, Infrastructure Minister Raghubir Mahaseth, Industries Minister Matrika Yadav and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/win-win-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Labour Minister Gokarna Bista</a>. Dahal has his own list of ministers to be sacked, or inducted.By bringing in Madhav Nepal loyalist <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-airlines-has-new-planes-but-no-new-plans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yogesh Bhattarai as Minister of Tourism and Civil Aviation</a> last week, Oli killed three birds with one stone: added a politician with a reputation of being honest and a do-er, placated Nepal and thumbed his nose at Dahal.Meanwhile, in an effort to address its bipolar character the party finally passed a political document clarifying its ideology. However, the statement does not completely remove the NCP’s conceptual confusion. There is no mention of the UML’s long-held principle of ‘pluralistic open society’. ‘Socialism’ is mentioned, but without the adjective ‘democratic’.In the UML’s sacrosanct principle of ‘multi-party people’s democracy’, the document has tellingly dropped the word ‘multi-party’. And even though the Constitution says Nepal will be ‘socialist oriented’, the document uses the ‘C’ word: communism.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-troika/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Troika</a>, Kiran Nepal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rift-in-nepals-ruling-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rift in Nepal's ruling party</a>, Kunda Dixit

Dangerous driving

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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