<figure><img width="1140" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23129c7e80680e0417c7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: Nature Communications</figcaption></figure>What makes Nepal scenic is also what makes it seismic. The country is located in one of the most vulnerable regions of the world for earthquakes, and our ancestors were used to them happening regularly. They knew that as they rebuilt after one earthquake, they had to prepare for the next one. A scientific paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07874-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nature Communications </a>this month gives us a sobering reminder of this danger. Even as we catch up with reconstruction and rehabilitation after 2015, we have to scale up to the whole country our preparedness for the Next Big One.Himalayan earthquakes fall into two main types. There are moderate intensity quakes like the ones in 2015 and 2008 which are accompanied by a lot of shaking, but do not deform the surface. Then there are gigantic upheavals like the 8.3 magnitude 1934 quake epicentred in eastern Nepal which destroyed much of Kathmandu, and the 8.7 magnitude Assam earthquake in 1950, described as the greatest earthquake to hit the Himalaya in recorded history. Megaquakes like these uplift the surface and are what formed the Himalaya.Seismologists studying data from the 2015 event have concluded that the Gorkha Earthquake ruptured eastwards, and stopped underground somewhere south of Kathmandu Valley, and instead of releasing the stores stress, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/01/earthquakes-priming-himalaya-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased tectonic tension</a> underneath Central Nepal. They say moderate quakes like 2015 can actually trigger future megaquakes as the rock layers release accumulated stress along faults.These urgent warnings came as Nepal marked the anniversary of the 1934 megaquake last week as National Earthquake Safety Day.Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Bilham</a> says the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. In fact, it is still collecting energy beneath us and it could be let off in the near future just as the 1833 earthquake in Kathmandu was followed by another one 30 years later. The second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Added to the unfinished business of 2015, there is also the danger posed by the seismic gap in western Nepal which has not seen a megaquake since 1505. The western half of the country was not affected by 2015, and is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness there about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake safety</a>.The focus on rebuilding in 14 districts of central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake should not stop us from getting western Nepal prepared for the Big One. Indeed, the whole of Nepal, northern India and the region should brace itself because a megaquake of 8.5 magnitude in western Nepal would cause widespread death and devastation across northern South Asia, which is the world’s most densely-populated region. Seismologists warn it could possibly be the worst disaster in human history in terms of loss of life.Response to the 2015 earthquake should now encompass the whole country, schools need to be retrofitted, hospitals and public buildings reinforced, and disaster management plans be put into place. But as with everything else in Nepal, we tend to focus on a disaster that has already occurred than on the one that has not struck yet. The answer may lie in provincial and local governments enforcing building codes and drawing up preparedness plans, a job for which the national government has so far been deficient. The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. It struck on a Saturday when schools were closed, the telecommunication network was functioning, highways were open, electricity supply was restored fairly quickly and Kathmandu Airport was not damaged. Next time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may not be so lucky</a>. Monks in Tibet noted the exact time of the last big quake in western Nepal at 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River which burst to create the debris field where Pokhara is located today. There is now so much slip deficit beneath western Nepal that a sudden elastic rebound can move the entire half of the country southwards by a shocking 14m. The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#435 of Nepali Times</a> for 23-26 January 2009, Prashant Jha in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15598#.XErqP1UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his column Plain Speaking</a> wrote about the simmering anger in the Tarai two years after the Madhes uprising. Kathmandu's inability to heed this warning led to further violence when the constitution was promulgated in 2015. Excerpt:Two years after the Madhes movement altered Nepali nationalism, the Tarai is in a mess.Anger against Kathmandu was the defining feature of this period. Now, a mix of disillusionment, rage, helplessness and fear prevails. Macro politics is more fragmented than ever, across party and caste lines. And at the micro level violence has become the only tool to resolve political and personal disputes.Kathmandu can appoint a credible minister for Tarai affairs to handle political grievances, local killings, micro disputes, administrative weakness, agreement implementation. Full time, sensitive, and sincere engagement with the plains is the only hope.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23159c7e80680e0417c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="509" height="816"></a>

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AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22149c7e80680e04176fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Women and children displaced by flood seek shelter in Jogapurwa village of Bahraich district, Uttar Pradesh in India. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Parash Nath Kashyap, 62, has moved three times in two decades due to floods and erosion along the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghaghara">Ghaghara</a> River, which is what the Karnali is called after crossing the border in southwestern Nepal.“How different our life was 20 years ago,” says Kashyap, dragging a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charpai">charpai</a> under the shade of a tree along the left embankment of the Ghaghara in Jogapurwa, 30km west of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahraich">Bahraich</a> city.In 2000, severe floods washed away his family’s land so they moved a kilometre east. Another flood in 2002 forced them to move again. In 2008, they were made homeless again and settled in a patch of government land along the flood-control levee. “It’s like hide and seek, we move as the river moves,” he says wryly. “For years we have danced with the river, but with tears in our eyes.”Read also:Part 1: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a> Part 2: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali</a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22179c7e80680e041770jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Parashnath Kashyap is the leader flood victim communities in Jogapurwa in Uttar Pradesh, India. He has been fighting for rights of the affected communities in Ghaghara. Photo: NABIN BARALThe Ghaghara flows into the Ganga downstream in Bihar in one of the most flood-prone regions and most densely-populated regions of the world. Floods in the Ganga basin between 2000 and 2014 affected about 93 million people. According to a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Ganges-River-Basin-Status-and-Challenges-in-Water-Environment-and/Bharati-Sharma-Smakhtin/p/book/9781138900325">2018 report</a> from the International Water Management Institute, there were 326 extreme flood events in the Ganga basin between 1980 to 2015 resulting in 67,000 casualties. Of these 212 floods were in India, 74 in Bangladesh and 40 in Nepal. China accounts for 4% of the basin, but there is almost no information about floods there. Read also:Part 3: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a> Part 5: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait</a> After the river-engulfed more land in Jogapurwa of Uttar Pradesh, the number of people living in temporary settlements has grown. This has led to a web of social problems in recent years. “People living far from the embankment (our relatives) don’t want to get their daughters to marry our boys as we live in a very vulnerable situation,” Kashyap adds. <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a221b9c7e80680e041771jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Chandra Vahal , a flood victim in Jogapurwa village of Uttar Pradesh shows the level of flood that submerged their make shift houses last mosoon. Photo: NABIN BARALHe knew that problems would get worse when he was first displaced in 2000, so he married off his daughters as early as possible while he had some money left. As he lost his land, his economic condition deteriorated. “We have land certificates but we are landless because the river is flowing over where we used to live,” he said.Most of the younger generation have gone to bigger cities in Punjab or Delhi to look for work. The result of the exodus is visible: most people in the villages were women, the elderly and children.“We cultivate some vegetables on the sandy land in the dry season. You can’t imagine how big this river is in the monsoon,” said Kamlesh Kashyap, another flood refugee. This land is far from where they live, so their vegetables are often stolen or eaten by animals. “If boys were here, they could guard the land at night, but women can’t because it’s very unsafe,” he adds. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a221e9c7e80680e041772jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Locals collect sand from the Ghaghara river at the Ganga/Ghaghara confluence. NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Displaced people who move to the cities have to do low class jobs, like dish-washing or toilet cleaning, since very few had been to school. The farming community has been devastated, children do not go to school.“They have to herd animals, so parents are reluctant to send them to school,” says Dhrub Kumar of the Panchasheel Development Trust which works with displaced communities. “Parents are forced to sell most of the milk from their cows or buffaloes, so the children do not have enough to eat.” The Uttar Pradesh government’s attempts to relocate the displaced have largely failed due to a lack of understanding of their long-term needs. A decade ago, the government provided land for people in Jogapurwa to construct houses, but the land was too far away from where they farmed. “It’s about 10-15 km from here and the land is just enough to build houses so where do we keep our animals, where do we produce food, how do we survive?” asks Parashnath Kashyap, whose family decided to stay put in the hope that Ghaghara would change course someday and they would get back to their land. Some people moved to the government provided land, but later they returned to the embankment. “We are all low caste people but the new land was dominated by higher caste people so we were afraid we would be harassed,” says Chandran Bhaal, 56. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22219c7e80680e041773jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Hare Ram and his wife sow pointed gourd in the sandy soil at the confluence of the Ganges and the Ghaghara in Chhara district of Bihar. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The Karnali River traverses the mountains from Tibet through Nepal and becomes the Ghaghara in Uttar Pradesh in northern India. The Girijapuri Barrage 16km downstream from the Nepal border was built 55 years ago to divert water for irrigation to central Uttar Pradesh. Much of the water is diverted west to the Sharada River , another tributary of the Ganga. “We are killing this river by diverting most of the water for irrigation and leaving the downstream areas dry,” says Dhrub Kumar.According to the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279200603_River_Bank_Erosion_Induced_Human_Displacement_and_Its_Consequences">studies</a>, the Ghaghara started shifting course particularly after 1995. The Gangetic plains are relatively flat, and after the steep descent from the Himalaya, the rivers shift course in the alluvial plains, especially when they swell during the monsoon. According to the <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/floods-in-north-and-east-india-kill-120-people-45848">National Disaster Management Authority of India</a>, about 2.7 million hectares out of 24.1 million hectares of land in the state is affected by floods every year, with an estimated loss of $57 million. Debates whether embankments are the right way to deal with floods are not new, but the problem is getting bigger as more money has been invested in flood control levees over the past decades. Experts say the heavy sediment load is raising the river beds, and although the embankments may control floods temporarily, they can cause catastrophic flooding when the levees are breached in future. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22259c7e80680e041774jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>An embankment to control floods in the Ghaghara river near to the Ganga/Ghaghara confluence at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Many argue it is only corrupt contractors, bureaucrats, technocrats and politicians who have benefited, making billions from embankments despite their failure to curb the floods. “Long-term solutions are not a priority, but immediate relief and embankments have always been priority. It clearly shows that money is the motivation behind (embankment building),” said Ajit Dixit, a journalist based in Cornelganj in Gonda district.Governments are supposed to protect people but many say they are not moving in the right direction. The population grows rapidly and land encroachment near rivers is a serious problem because it leaves them vulnerable to future floods. “If we invest the amount of money we have been investing in embankments, I think it’s possible to resettle villages in safe places. But as it’s a politically motivated move it’s not going to happen,” Dhrub Kumar says.While the construction of embankments started during British rule, the majority were built after India’s independence in 1947. According to the World Banks’s 2014 <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955751468000263739/pdf/103889-WP-Ganges-Strategic-Basin-Assessment-A-Discussion-of-Regional-Opportunities-and-Risks-PUBLIC.pdf">report</a>, about 16,200 km of embankments were constructed between 1954 and 1997 in India alone and authorities claim this has protected about 17 out of 40 million hectares of flood prone lands along the Ganga.The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent instalments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

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Dancing with the river

Nepal showed inconsistent performance at the T20 World Cup 2026 in Mumbai with flashes of brilliance, but ultimately snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rhinos-hit-the-ground-running">near-win against England</a>, a test cricket team by an associate country, in the opening game showed promise and suggested that Nepal’s cricket was on the cusp of glory. The Nepal Premier League and a flawless performance in the qualifiers had raised hopes that perhaps the Rhinos could progress out of the group stage. However, subsequent losses against newcomers Italy and the West Indies were harsh reality checks about the true state of the game: there is a lot of catching up to do in the present, and structural changes to put in place to win big in the future. Head Coach Stuart Law summed it all up quite harshly: “To go from that high to then go to an extreme low four days later, that’s not showing mental toughness.” He was worried about the distraction of social media and lack of focus among players: “When you’re in cricket, do your cricket. It’s a difficult one for me because I’m a social media dinosaur, I don’t understand it. You don’t have to keep showing your face if we’re winning games.” Finally a late-night win against Scotland on Tuesday redeemed some of Nepal’s pride. A strong opening partnership, yet another rugged Dipendra Singh Airee innings and Sompal Kami’s vindictive 3 for 25 helped Nepal beat Scotland in their last group game at the T20 World Cup.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260218010220_6ca369f6aefc8b653c2572467f050e96b029c96b71fed5fb4213898c7d469325.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260218010220_6ca369f6aefc8b653c2572467f050e96b029c96b71fed5fb4213898c7d469325" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="T20 World Cup Nepal"></figure>  There was nothing riding on the game but honour, it means at least that Nepal do not crash out on zero. The game ebbed and flowed. Scotland started well and looked set to score 200 before collapsing in the end at 170. The Nepal batting effort also started out well, but in the middle overs after some wickets had fallen, it looked like the team was whimpering out again. Boundaries dried up, the run rate creeped up to almost 13, before Airee and Jha woke up and took charge and got to 171 with a few balls to spare. The dhaka topi crowd in the stands loved it. A big part of the reason Nepal’s performance was so much better against England than in the other games was the mentality going in. Against England, Nepal were clear underdogs and could play freely. Even a nasty defeat would have been forgiven. Against newcomers Italy, these roles were flipped. Fans and perhaps the players underestimated Italy, a nation much better known for its football culture. But it had put together a smart, experienced team made up of Italian cricketers with South African, Australian, English, Indian, Pakistani and Sri Lankan heritage. And Nepal may have won a series against West Indies last year, but against the full strength Caribbean squad they were easily beaten.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260218010220_dc27adaa2102b493f940a97f9572769e695c2c1c41c8558fc4c23657cc1c3261.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260218010220_dc27adaa2102b493f940a97f9572769e695c2c1c41c8558fc4c23657cc1c3261" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="T20 World Cup Nepal"></figure>  Another key difference is that Nepal was batting second against England. Against Italy and the West Indies, having to set a target rather than chase it, there was miserable batting failure. The front of the order — openers Kushal Bhurtel and Aasif Sheikh, captain Rohit Poudel — did not pace themselves well. They started much too slow, not able to take advantage of the first six powerplay overs. Airee’s 58 and Sompal Kami’s 26 off 11 against the West Indies were the only innings of any note. The middle order of Bam, Jha, Aarif Sheikh was not much better. Nepal really struggled with the ball too in that game, taking the one wicket against the West Indies and none against Italy. Of course, it is a huge ask of your bowling attack to defend anything below 150 in the modern T20 game. There were questionable tactical choices. Early wickets are essential when defending a low score. But key wicket taker Sandeep Lamichhane was not brought on until the middle overs, when the opponents had made too many runs to feel any fear. So they took him on and he had a really poor tournament, going for a lot of runs.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260218010220_b0301b854ddf235e1bcb84e8ed58060a68c8f3f13d3bb5a7596e1f51184e0d03.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260218010220_b0301b854ddf235e1bcb84e8ed58060a68c8f3f13d3bb5a7596e1f51184e0d03" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="T20 World Cup Nepal"></figure>  To captain Poudel’s credit, he acknowledged the bad showing against Italy: “It was not a 123 all-out wicket. We are professionals and not turning up for the game was disappointing.” Coach Law thinks that Nepal is going to get to the next step. If the team is ambitious, and hopes to compete at the elite level, then it cannot celebrate a loss against England. If it wants to win consistently, it has to shed the ‘Cardiac Kids’ nickname. It is better to win than to be fun to watch but lose. The T20 game is so brisk and so it is often won in the margins. Good catching and fielding can create momentum and save a team the 5, 10 runs that win the game. Nepal were uncharacteristically poor in the field against Italy and West Indies, often fumbling and leaking boundaries. Airee didn’t get any of his usual run-outs either. Nepal lost cheap wickets through run-outs and stumpings. All these unforced errors right through the match add up on the scoreboard.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260218010220_1630c283f277631dfbddd3d7f29b930b124bde97c8f6a411cc2e1d089e452f45.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260218010220_1630c283f277631dfbddd3d7f29b930b124bde97c8f6a411cc2e1d089e452f45" data-rendition-name="original" width="1366" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="T20 World Cup Nepal"></figure>  SKILL SET Mentality is important but sport performance ultimately comes down to skill. There looked to be a large gap, and perhaps one of the reasons is because the Nepal team is so full of all-rounders. Airee’s two-way performance is undeniable, but Bhurtel, Paudel and Karan KC do plenty of both too and they do not do it super well very often. If the team wants to get consistent, it must have consistent performers with the bat and ball. That calls for some of these players to focus completely on one skill over the other. You do not see openers bowling so much in the top teams as Bhurtel does. The main reason for this skill gap, and one of the hardest parts about being an associate nation, is how little cricket the members of the team play compared to the test nations. Said Stuart Law: “The longer format is where you learn how to play the game. The shorter formats are where you have your fun. We need some sort of multi-day games.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260218010220_652ef3ba6fceab394a94c18cabd322dca8ba4a1266557660064339de9169c91d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260218010220_652ef3ba6fceab394a94c18cabd322dca8ba4a1266557660064339de9169c91d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="T20 World Cup Nepal"></figure>  The contrast in experience showed during the Italy game. Most of the members of the Italy team were well into their thirties, had played a high volume of domestic cricket and were more self-assured. So, while the young Nepali team were more athletic, they seemed to lack the skill and experience to know what to do when things were going wrong. The Italians seemed to go about their game with a lot more self assurance. In the long run, this means setting up grassroot structures, getting kids into formal training when young, and setting up a longer format domestic league. In the short term, CAAN could organise frequent series with other associate nations, and individual athletes could go play long form club cricket abroad. Surely some team in the world has to have a spot for a player like Airee, for example. It has been Airee’s tournament. Scores of 44 v England, 58 v West Indies, and now a match-winning 50 against Scotland that gives the travelling Nepali support something to cheer for. The tournament could have been a lot more, but it is wholesome to end on a win.

Nepal goes in and out of T20

Chronic winter drought and decades of unmanaged forest biomass have turned wildfires into a systemic risk for Nepal. We need to re-learn to convert fire fuel in forests into fertilizer for crops.&nbsp; On 11 January, a huge forest fire spread rapidly from China into the forests of Sindhupalchok, 40km northeast of Kathmandu. The newly-opened Tatopani border checkpoint was closed. Smoke from the fire spread across central Nepal, blocking the sun.&nbsp; The fire burnt itself out within a few days, but the border stayed closed for longer. Such wildfires were once rare in mid-winter, and traditionally peaked between March and May as temperatures rose ahead of pre-monsoon showers. What is unsettling is not just the early onset of the fires, but also their scale. This shift is not accidental, the pattern has been unfolding over years due to winter drought, weakening post-monsoon moisture, and the accumulation of dry forest biomass as Nepal’s forest area doubled in the past 30 years.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1055" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of Nepal with red dots signifying fires in February 2025.</figcaption> </figure>  Together, these factors have made forests tinder dry in spring, just waiting for a spark. Nepal has experienced winter drought in eight of the past ten years (this winter was an exception). Winter rain and snow at higher elevations play a decisive role in maintaining surface moisture, recharging shallow aquifers, and keeping forest floors damp enough to resist ignition. When winter rains fail, forests dry out months earlier than usual. Satellite-based assessments show a steep decline in surface moisture across the middle mountains of Nepal, particularly in areas with dense forest cover but limited undergrowth management. Springs that once flowed year-round are now seasonal.&nbsp; More than half of the springs in the mid-hills have either dried up or show significantly reduced discharge, a trend closely linked to declining soil moisture and disrupted recharge zones. Dry soil does not just threaten water security — it helps the vegetation ignite. FUEL WITHOUT FUNCTION For decades, Nepal’s forests have been accumulating dry leaf litter, fallen branches, shrubs, and deadwood. Historically, this biomass was not considered waste because rural households regularly collected leaf litter for livestock bedding, which was later composted and returned to farms as fertilizer.&nbsp; Forest floors were therefore relatively clean while the mulch fertilized farms. That relationship has steadily eroded due to outmigration, changes in livestock systems, restrictions on access to community forests, and the growing availability of chemical fertilisers.&nbsp; Community forests across the country today are thick with dry twigs, branches and leaves — a highly combustible carpet. When prolonged drought dries this biomass, even a small spark from a herder’s intentional fire, a cigarette, or lightning strike can trigger massive fires.&nbsp; Under such conditions, the question is no longer whether fires will occur, but how intense and widespread they will be. Forest fires are often framed as an environmental issue concerning trees and wildlife. In reality, their impact extends far beyond forest boundaries.&nbsp; Smoke travels faster and further than flames. Fine particulate matter, especially harmful PM2.5, spreads across countries. In recent fire seasons, air quality monitors in Kathmandu have recorded air quality levels several times higher than WHO guidelines. The smoke adds to Kathmandu’s own pollution and lingers for days.&nbsp; Flights are cancelled or delayed in cities like Pokhara, and poor visibility blocks mountain views affecting tourism. Health facilities report spikes in respiratory complaints, particularly among children and the elderly. Just as wildfires have multi-sectoral causes, the impact of forest fires go beyond forests. One critical dimension remains largely invisible: the soil. The fires cause silent damage beneath the ash, and the emergency does not end when the flames subside. Beneath the surface, soil suffers long-term damage. Organic matter burns away, beneficial microorganisms die. The soil structure weakens, reducing the land’s ability to absorb and retain water. The scorched earth is more prone to erosion, increasing the risk of floods and landslides once the rains return.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1717" height="2143" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Wildfire risk map based on the validated Random Forest model (a) Overall reclassified wildfire risk map of Nepal, (b) District level wildfire risk, and (c) Municipality wildfire risk map.</figcaption> </figure>  In many of Nepal’s agricultural areas, soil organic matter levels are already below 2% -- lower than what is needed for resilient and productive farming. Repeated fires push these levels even lower, undermining soil fertility and forcing farmers to rely more heavily on chemical fertilisers, unleashing a vicious cycle of higher costs and food insecurity.&nbsp; Climate breakdown is often cited as the primary culprit, and rightly so. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have intensified fire risk. But fires in Nepal are increasingly the result of human intervention.&nbsp; The response of all three levels of government remains too little, and too reactive. Each year, resources are mobilised to extinguish fires once they have already spread. Far less attention is paid to managing the fuel load within forest undergrowth that makes such fires inevitable.&nbsp; Meanwhile, forestry and agriculture policies are not coordinated, missing opportunities to address shared challenges. Forest fires are not natural disasters, but predictable outcomes of governance choices. National plans and climate pledges set an ambitious target of raising soil organic matter to 4%. The science behind this goal is solid. Higher organic matter improves water retention, stabilises yields, reduces fertiliser dependence, and enhances long-term food security. What remains unclear is the pathway.&nbsp; Where will the organic inputs come from? How will they be processed and applied safely at scale? Without practical answers, the 4% target risks remaining aspirational rather than achievable. Forest undergrowth can be turned into fuel and fertiliser. Biochar is produced by heating organic biomass in a low-oxygen environment, converting it into a stable form of carbon that can be added to soil.&nbsp; When properly produced and applied, it improves soil structure, enhances water and nutrient retention, supports microbial activity, and locks carbon into the ground for decades. In Nepal biochar addresses two interconnected problems: reducing the accumulation of combustible biomass in forests, lowering fire risk, while simultaneously rebuilding depleted soils. In doing so, it restores the broken link between forest management and agriculture.&nbsp; Done well, biochar is not merely an environmental intervention. It is an economic one, with potential to create local employment, reduce farmers’ input costs, and support climate-smart agriculture. But biochar propagation depends on improved governance. If promoted as isolated pilots or short-term projects, it will fail. What is needed is institutional clarity: standards for production and safety, quality control mechanisms, farmer extension services, and coordination across local, provincial, and federal levels.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Freshly prepared biochar under control tempature (350-600°C).</figcaption> </figure>  Community forest user groups could manage biomass collection. Local governments then support safe, decentralised production units. Agricultural extension services guide farmers on application, linked to soil testing and monitoring. Such an approach would reduce fire risk, improve soil health, and generate rural livelihoods.&nbsp; Poorly produced biochar or contaminated feedstock can harm soils and human health. Without training, standards, and oversight, good intentions can backfire. Nepal needs to move beyond fire-fighting to fire prevention and confront the structural causes that make them a growing risk. It is not just a technical choice – it is one that demands political will from newly-elected leaders after March. &nbsp;&nbsp; Ngamindra Dahal is a hydrometeorologist with the Nepal Water Conservation Foundation specialising on climate and water management issues.&nbsp;

RED ALERT: Get ready for the wildfire season

Early on Monday morning, a bus from Pokhara to Kathmandu plunged off the highway in Dhading killing 19 passengers. Two weeks ago, another bus fell into the Tama Kosi in Manthali, killing 12. A few days before that a bus crash in Baitadi killed 13 people.&nbsp; In just the month before Nepal's election, more than 50 people have been killed in road traffic accidents. Most of these cannot be called 'accidents'. They are a direct result of poorly maintained highways and lack of enforcement of traffic discipline. Political parties in Nepal have rolled out their election manifestos, and voters are once again presented with a flood of promises. Page after page, these documents list megawatts and microcredit, highways and airports, jobs and investment. In these manifestos, growth is quantified, projects itemised, revenue forecast — and there are even threats to beat up contractors who do not finish their jobs. But when everything is declared a priority the stale promises are empty. The voter is left confused as to where the party’s loyalties really lie. Will any of these plans and pledges actually ever materialise and help Nepalis live longer, safer, healthier lives? The main job of any accountable government is to protect its citizens, not so much from foreign enemies but from domestic mismanagement. And this means the most basic test the new government should be made to pass is whether it can ensure basic well-being and protection for all its people. The problems of safety, health, and survival remain unresolved for most Nepalis, and are quietly eroding their lives. In the past year alone, the country’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">roads and highways claimed more than 2,300</a> lives. An estimated 41,000 Nepalis die each year directly because of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-invisible-is-more-dangerous">air pollution</a>, and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/air-pollution-killing-season-starts-early">lifespans are lessened by 3.4 years</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health">Non-communicable diseases</a> now account for well over half of total deaths in the country. And even where survival has improved, deprivation remains. Chronic malnutrition continues to haunt communities in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mass-migration-from-muktikot">Nepal’s western mountains</a> despite progress in maternal and child health.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  These are the lived realities of most Nepalis, and it is here that development can deliver its most immediate returns. A rising GDP, in and of itself, does not make roads safer, clean polluted air, or provide enough nutrition to children. Such outcomes demand intentional, granular policies that confront the specific, everyday problems shaping people’s lives.&nbsp; Macroeconomic growth, trade and investment are important, but these alone cannot guarantee improvements health and safety. The word ‘growth’, after all, is also synonymous with malignancy. Economic progress and human protection are correlated only when governance deliberately links them. Impact on life is the unit in which ordinary Nepalis calculate progress. What is needed, then, is a governing philosophy measurable in these same terms: a ‘life-first’ standard where every policy, budget, and reform can be understood and judged by its impact on protecting and extending human life. Such a ‘life-first’ approach would scrutinise three aspects of every policy. First, whether the policy prevents loss of life. A death is termed preventable if better, more coordinated response systems and regulations could have avoided it (vaccines, drugs, road safety, clean drinking water). A newly built six-lane highway <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">can be a death trap</a> due to poor design or lax enforcement of safety rules. If neonatal deaths continue in a district despite hospitals being present, or if malnutrition claims lives in predominantly agricultural regions, they too are failures. Preventable deaths also cluster where accountability is less direct. Just last year, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/suicides-a-pandemic-within-a-pandemic">Nepal recorded 6,866 suicides</a>, with nearly 20 lives lost every day, yet these deaths fail to prompt any serious examination of governance. The same holds for fatalities linked to domestic or communal violence, alcohol and substance misuse, or ‘natural’ disasters, which register as ‘tragedies without remedy’ rather than as outcomes policy can influence. But when avoidable loss of life recurs at scale, isolated incidents become patterns, and patterns reveal systemic neglect. Saving lives, however, is only the first step, and what matters just as much is the quality of years lived. Nepal’s life expectancy now stands at 71 years, yet many citizens spend years in avoidable disability, untreated chronic illness, or mental distress. A life- first government must ask not only whether people live, but whether they thrive. Are citizens able to pursue education, work, and family life without fear of preventable harm? Do communities have access to clean air and water, nutritious food, and basic healthcare? Can a teenager anywhere in Nepal imagine a future not foreclosed by premature marriage, or untreated depression?  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940" data-rendition-name="original" width="2529" height="1427" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  Thriving requires policies that prevent suffering and promote well-being in addition to ensuring survival.&nbsp; Finally, governance must consider graceful aging. Elderly Nepalis should not be left to navigate disease, poverty, or isolation alone. Social systems, healthcare, and community support must enable their continued participation and dignified well-being. Adopting this three-layered standard would gradually reorient how success of any new government is defined. Transportation would be judged by fatalities reduced on the roads. Electricity generation would be measured by whether households can switch from firewood dependence to smoke-free electric stoves.&nbsp; Increase in annual rice harvest must translate into better nutrition, reducing the prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes. Accountability must follow problems rather than stop at Singha Darbar. Only then will politicians and bureaucrats eventually recognise that their work converges on the same human endpoint. Critics will argue that economies are complex, trade-offs are inevitable, and that governance cannot be reduced to a single metric.But, as Acemoglu and Robinson show in their book <a href="https://ia801506.us.archive.org/27/items/WhyNationsFailTheOriginsODaronAcemoglu/Why-Nations-Fail_-The-Origins-o-Daron-Acemoglu.pdf">Why Nations Fail</a>, the key difference between prosperity and poverty lies in inclusive institutions that empower citizens and create broad incentives for well-being.&nbsp; Extractive institutions concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few while keeping the majority trapped in neglect. Nepal’s governance has remained a striking example of extraction. If lawmakers in the new Parliament continue to resist changes that would save and improve the lives of ordinary citizens, the same systemic rot will persist for generations to come. A life-first mentality can cut through this inertia by clarifying the moral centre of governance and reminding policymakers that behind every policy failure lies human cost. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-hunger">Every mother in Bajura</a> with a child going hungry at night, every farmer in the Madhes unable to afford medical care, and every family that has lost <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-kidneys-to-save-nepal">a migrant son to kidney failure</a> understands the true <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/dirty-dangerous-difficult-and-dehydrating">value of a life saved</a>. Life is the one metric that transcends ideology, ethnicity, and region. Centering governance on this single, focused metric, can shift an election from a contest of rhetoric to a contest of evidence. Which party ensured access to safe water and basic healthcare? Which made work at home and abroad safer and less exploitative. Which measurably extended healthy years of life for ordinary citizens? Health is wealth. By improving the healthy lifespan of citizens economic prosperity would follow naturally. A ‘life-first’ governance model would therefore compel Nepal to address the underlying structural failures across all sectors, rather than merely alleviating their symptoms. The GenZ protest that toppled the government last September was, at its core, a demand for accountability and a rejection of politics as usual. But as the country edges closer to the polls, that clarity has started to dissipate. Parties are now echoing the language of reform, but the public discourse remains dominated by promises that feel disconnected from Nepal’s most immediate and basic priorities. Every preventable death, every hungry child, and every neglected elder becomes a direct failure of governance and a moral debt the state must answer for. It is how we can make sure we keep the next government in check. The writers are Nepali GenZ students of biomedical engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

Nepal’s life or death election

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-the-interim-government-gave-bangladesh">Bangladesh’s 12 February election</a> carried historic weight because it was held in the aftermath of the July 2024 student-led uprising that ended the long-running regime of the Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina.
Alongside the parliamentary contest, voters were asked to decide on an additional ballot referendum known as the ‘July Charter’, a proposal linked to constitutional and administrative reform debates.
I served as an independent international observer from Nepal, authorised by the Election Commission of Bangladesh and observed polling day procedures in selected centres outside Dhaka, intentionally moving beyond the capital city which was the focus of the international media and diplomatic community. We visited 17 polling stations in remote Bancharampur and Gazipur constituencies.
The Bangladesh Election Commission’s emphasis on technology was evident. Upazila Police personnel deployed for election duty were equipped with body-cams, and there were more CCTVs Police personnel deployed for election duty were equipped with body-cams, and there were more CCTVs at several polling centres. These measures reflected an effort to enhance transparency and accountability.
For the first time, the Election Commission reportedly created a WhatsApp coordination group that included human rights defenders and security officials. This group enables rapid information-sharing and prompt security responses to potential incidents.&nbsp;
Bangladesh introduced postal voting for citizens abroad who had not renounced their citizenship. The postal ballots were processed and counted with QR code technology. Similar arrangements to vote by mail were also made for government employees who could not go their home constituencies. This gave voters respect of their ballots and franchise.
Youth participation in this election was significant. Many first-time voters expressed enthusiasm and a strong sense of ownership over the democratic process. Their turnout and visible engagement suggested a generation keenly interested in shaping the country’s political direction.
Women voters were also notably active. In multiple centres, women formed long queues and appeared confident about navigating the voting process. Minority community members were also present. Precautionary measures had been taken to thwart any disruption.
In the polling centres mostly located in schools, the overall environment was calm, orderly, and peaceful. Election materials were properly arranged, voting compartments ensured procedural clarity, and no major disruptions or visible irregularities were observed in the centres covered.&nbsp;
Security personnel were present but maintained a non-intrusive posture, contributing to a sense of order without interfering in the voting process.
Polling officials demonstrated familiarity with procedures, including voter identification and ballot issuance protocols. In informal conversations, station in-charges articulated procedural steps clearly and appeared confident in managing operations.&nbsp;
Queue management systems were generally in place, and voter verification processes were conducted in an organised manner. While observations were geographically limited, the professionalism of officials in the visited centers contributed positively to polling efficiency.
The vote counting was carried out promptly. Polling booths were required to send recorded data of the ballots cast directly, which significantly streamlined and expedited the counting process.
Despite the generally smooth procedures, certain accessibility challenges were observed. Senior citizens, lactating mothers, and individuals who appeared physically unwell were seen waiting in queues for extended periods. Priority mechanisms for vulnerable groups were not consistently visible across all centres.
Polling officials estimated turnouts between 50-60%, reflecting mid-day assessments rather than final figures. Voter flow remained steady but the ban on the former ruling party may have dampened some of the voter turnout.
What stood out most was the broader public mood. Many voters appeared motivated and engaged, particularly given the country’s recent political developments. Elections are not merely procedural exercises; they reflect citizens’ aspirations, expectations, and trust in institutional processes.
One of the most distinctive features of this election was the referendum on the ‘July Charter’. In some polling centres, this additional ballot appeared to generate confusion. A number of voters indicated they understood they needed to mark ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, yet some were unclear about the substance of the proposal.&nbsp;
Many younger voters seemed better informed about the implications of the referendum. Their engagement suggested that civic awareness surrounding reform debates may be evolving generationally. The referendum element added a constitutional dimension to what was already a politically significant parliamentary election.
LESSONS FOR NEPAL
Nepal also goes to the polls on 5 March, six months after its own student-led protests in September. Several of the practices seen in Bangladesh could be relevant.&nbsp;
Bangladesh has made notable strides in electoral reform and administrative efficiency, creating a sense that the country has taken a meaningful step forward in improving the accessibility and management of its electoral process.
Polling day was a crucial indicator of administrative preparedness and civic participation. The Bangladesh election illustrated both strengths and areas for continued civic education, especially regarding public understanding of referendum questions. Youth engagement, women’s participation, and enhanced security coordination were encouraging signs.
Historic elections shape nations. They also leave a lasting impression on those privileged to observe them closely. Democratic consolidation is an incremental process. Orderly procedures, technological monitoring, and visible participation reflect institutional maturity. At the same time, inclusivity particularly for vulnerable groups remains an essential benchmark.
Mohna Ansari is an advocate, a practicing lawyer at the Supreme Court and Former Commissioner of National Human Rights Commission of Nepal. She was a member of the International Election Observer team from Nepal.
Local observer Muzaffar Hossain Chaudhary also contributed.

calamities

AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

Dancing with the river

Nepal goes in and out of T20

RED ALERT: Get ready for the wildfire season

Nepal’s life or death election

Bangladesh’s post-uprising election