<h2>Saving the last of Nepal's pangolins</h2>Law enforcement and education, the only way to stop trafficking of endangered animalsSonia Awale<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e599c7e80680e04fcaejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>FAR FROM HOME: Pangolin that escaped from a community forest in Sankhuwasaba last month rolls into its scales for safety before being released back into the wild. SUJAN BAJRACHARYA/RSS</figcaption></figure>Seizure of pangolin scales and meat are on the rise across Asia, indicating increasing demand for the body parts of this endangered mammal found in Nepal, other parts of Asia and Africa.Last year, two Chinese nationals flying transiting Kathmandu on their way from Nigeria to China were seized at the airport with 162kg of  scales from at least 15 dead pangolins.Sudip Giri of the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) says the seizures are just the tip of the iceberg, with much of the trafficking going undetected.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29443&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Is wildlife conservation a victim of its own success in Nepal?</a>, Mukesh Pokhreal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/ever-gone-wildlife-trekking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ever gone wildlife trekking in Nepal?</a>, Lisa Choegyal“Pangolin smuggling is increasing at an alarming rate, but most of the culprits we have arrested are those out to make a quick buck, travelling on bikes trying to find buyers in the city, they are not the criminal masterminds and wholesalers,” Giri explains.Although Nepal is on the traditional route for wildlife trafficking from India to China, bulk seizures have occurred at trans-shipment points like Singapore and Hong Kong. In April, more than 14 tons of pangolin scales bound for Vietnam was seized – the biggest haul of its kind. Some 36,000 pangolins would have had to be killed for the consignment worth $38.7 million.The seizure came just five days after another container with 12.9 tons of pangolin scales was discovered in a Singapore port. Two separate shipments of five and four tons of pangolins from Nigeria have been seized in Hanoi in the last two months.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-pangolins-from-being-eaten-to-extinction/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting pangolins from being eaten to extinction</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/protecting-the-pangolin,3597" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting lesser known species</a>, Shreejana Shrestha<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e5c9c7e80680e04fcafjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1037" height="693">Nepal is home to two species of pangolins: the Chinese and Indian varieties. The Chinese pangolin is on the IUCN’s critically endangered list and the Indian one is on the endangered list. Both species are in Nepal’s protected list and the killing, poaching, transporting, selling or buying of the scaly anteater is punishable with Rs1 million fine and/or up to 15 years in jail.However, Nepal, north-east India and the Karakoram Highway in Pakistan are the three land routes known for smuggling South Asian pangolins to feed the Chinese market where the scales can fetch up to $3,000 per kg and live anteaters at $8,000.Border points into China in Darchula, Humla, Bajhang, Sankhuwasabha, Sindupalchok, Gorkha, Dhading, Rasuwa, Kavre, Bajura, Surkhet and Taplejung are used for smuggling not just pangolin, but tiger parts, rhino horns, rosewood and other contraband items as well.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Between existence and extinction in Nepal</a>, Sonia AwaleOfficials admit that the lack of proper equipment to identify wildlife contraband, corruption and lax monitoring at remote checkpoints means that many consignments slip across the border undetected.While the smuggling nexus has been more or less controlled with greater <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-conservation-nepal-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conservation efforts</a> and stricter regulations, conservationists fear that the Himalayan route is now being revived for pangolins, the world’s most smuggled mammal.“With increasing connectivity, and our border with a high-demand country for pangolins like China, we have to be vigilant,” says Tulshi Laxmi Suwal of Nepal’s Small Mammal Conservation and Research Centre, who is pursuing her PhD on pangolins at the National Pingtung University in Taiwan.The reopening of the Tatopani-Kodari border point after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake</a>, the increasing use of the Rasuwa-Kerung road and the prospect of a new trans-Himalaya railway link could turn Nepal into even more of a smugglers’ den.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal“Nepal is already a signatory of China’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Belt and Road Initiative</a> which could increase market access and trafficking of wildlife,” says Kumar Paudel of Greenhood Nepal, who adds that pangolins from Africa, India and Bangladesh are already being intercepted in Nepal on their way to China.More than 100,000 wild pangolins are poached from Africa, Southeast Asia and South Asia every year. Most are destined for China where scales of the mammals are used in traditional medicine, and its meat considered a delicacy.Taiwan is a rare success story that offers hope. The island used to have high demand for pangolins just like the mainland, but an awareness campaign to reduce domestic demand and strict control on smuggling, allowed Taiwan’s own pangolin population to rebound. If Taiwan could do it, conservationists say, China can too.“Poaching and illegal trade of pangolins is not a big issue anymore in Taiwan, but we cannot be complacent. We need to continue sharing knowledge and I have found social media to be quite powerful,” says Nick Ching-Min Sun of National Pingtung University.His colleague, Tulshi Laxmi Suwal from Nepal adds: “We can all learn from Taiwan, how governments can be more serious and work with local communities and conservationists to spread awareness to reduce demand and give local people alternative incomes to reduce supply.”<h2>Rescuing barn owls from superstition</h2>Kamal MadenOnce widespread in Kathmandu Valley and across Nepal, barn owls are now endangered due to a decline in prey populations and threats from humans.The first-ever study of barn owls in Kathmandu Valley, carried out by Sabita Gurung for the Small Mammal Conservation and Research Foundation (SMCRF) and Japan’s Nagao Natural Environment Foundation, has found that a decrease in the owl’s rodent prey is affecting its population.Gurung laid traps for mice and grey house shrews, the main prey of the owl recognisable by its heart-shaped face, and found that both had declined in numbers due to rapid population growth in Kathmandu and the loss of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parks-not-parking-lots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open spaces</a>. This is worrying because owls are an important part of the ecosystem and control the population of grey shrews, which Gurung found make up 80% of the birds’ diet.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16088#.XR3XN-szaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Feather fiends</a>, Dewan Rai<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/decline-in-birds-of-migration-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu's silent spring</a>, Sonia Awale<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e5e9c7e80680e04fcb0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="888"><figcaption>Photos: SANJAY THA SHRESTHA</figcaption></figure>The misconception that the meat of barn owls and Indian eagles can cure paralysis and other diseases has also led to an increase in the poaching of the owls.Gurung is carrying out further research to identify the barn owl’s food habits, prey availability and challenges to its conservation in the Kathmandu suburbs of Pulchok, Chyamasin, Srijananagar, Kirtipur, Bajrabarahi and Balaju.The barn owl is one of 23 species of owls in Nepal and was first recorded by British resident and naturalist Brian Houghton Hodgson in 1829. Today, it is categorised as a vulnerable species under the national red list of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4568#.XR3X0uszaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal birds</a>; anyone found hunting, selling or harming a barn owl is liable to be fined up to Rs30,000 or jailed for 3-9 months.Considered to be the most beautiful of owl species, the barn owl gets its name from its preference to nest in barns instead of outdoors, signifying its habitat proximity to human settlements.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-the-last-home-of-the-spiny-babbler/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting the last home of the Spiny Babbler</a>, Carol Inskipp and Rupendra KarmacharyaWith an unmarked face and beige lower body, the barn owl is known as the ‘white owl’ in Nepal. Its wide facial disc is actually an antenna that magnifies sound in the same way human ears do. The bird’s acute sense of hearing allows it to be a specialised nocturnal hunter of small mammals.Barn owls are ultra-light and have soft feathers that muffle its passage through the air, allowing it to fly silently. But because its wings are not waterproof, the bird does not fly when it is raining. Contrary to popular belief, barn owls can see in the daytime but have found a prey niche at night.Barn owls in Kathmandu Valley were found to feed mainly on shrews, mice, small birds and insects. Since they cannot digest the skull, bones and fur of rodents, the owls spits them out as pellets, which scientists use to study their feeding habits.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e619c7e80680e04fcb1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="959">Of the 108 pellets Gurung studied recently, 81 belonged to grey house shrews, 13 to mice, 3 to birds and 1 to insects, with some unidentified bones.The grey house shrew in turn feeds on small insects and worms and has a strong body odour that discourages most predators, except owls and some species of snakes. As shrews live close to human settlements, the owl does too.However, the use of pesticides and rat poison has reduced the population of rodent and insects, affecting owl colonies in Kathmandu.<h2>Coy cat captured (on film)</h2>Camera trap takes first photos of rare marbled cat in eastern NepalWildlife researchers studying the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/city-for-transshipment-of-wildlife,3424" target="_blank" rel="noopener">red panda</a> have accidentally discovered one of the world’s most mysterious cats for the first time in eastern Nepal.The rare marbled cat (Pardofelis marmoratwa) is slightly bigger than a domestic cat and has large, dark-fringed markings and a long bushy tail. It was captured by a forest camera trap at 2,750m in Panchthar district. This is the first photographic evidence of the feline in Nepal, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Conservation.The camera trap study was carried out by researchers from Lincoln University in New Zealand and the Red Panda Network (RPN) in community forests in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-kingdom-of-cardamom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kangchenjunga region</a> bordering India and Nepal between December 2017 and June 2018. Cameras captured three images of the wild cat, along with 5,176 other photos of 17 medium and large-sized mammal species.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/clouded-future-for-the-clouded-leopard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clouded future for the Clouded Leopard</a>, Yadav Ghimirey<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Studying-Cat-Scat,3559" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Studying cat scat</a>, Sonam Tashi Lama<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e649c7e80680e04fcb2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="868"><figcaption>ON CANDID CAMERA: Rare selfie of a marbled cat in eastern Nepal, and the location in a community forest in Ilam where the camera trap was placed.</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e679c7e80680e04fcb3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="799">“This is exciting news for wildlife biologists and conservationists in Nepal,” said Sonam Tashi Lama, the lead author of the study and the coordinator of RPN’s citizen scientists and wildlife researchers monitoring eastern Nepal’s community forests for red pandas, but had never seen the marbled cat until they examined the camera trap photos.Cameras are revolutionising how researchers detect and count cryptic species, said Adrian Paterson, associate professor in Zoology at Lincoln University in Christchurch, a co-author of the research paper. “Detecting the marbled cat in eastern Nepal is a great example of the benefits of using cameras and will the discovery will add significantly to conservation in Nepal,” he said.The marbled cat is categorised as ‘Near Threatened’ in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, listed in CITES Appendix I and considered a ‘data deficient’ species in Nepal.  The cat lives in forests throughout South and Southeast Asia, from the Himalayan foothills of India and Bhutan to China and southwards through Malaysia and Indonesia.The forest in eastern Nepal where the marbled cat was detected has been naturally restored as a secondary forest after a forest fire destroyed the area nearly 35 years ago. Its presence is seen as a big conservation achievement, and researchers are recommending that year-round camera trap surveys be held in the mid-hills of eastern Nepal. Its exact location is not divulged to protect the wildlife in that region from poachers.The study also calls for an urgent assessment of immediate threats, preparing sound conservation plans for the marbled cat and engaging local herders in conservation programs.<h2>Is the spotted linsang really rare, or expert at rarely getting caught?</h2>Yadav GhimireyThe small and sleek spotted linsang was recently photographed for the first time in more than 175 years in Nepal. This was the first authentic evidence of this tree-dwelling mammal occurring in the country.Although there were some reports of its presence in Chitwan National Park in the 1980s, credible  evidence was scarce. The species was documented for the first time by British resident and naturalist Brian Hodgson in 1847, who illustrated the carnivore using a live model.The animal is an enigma, showing up very rarely even in camera traps. During our survey in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/municipalities-want-to-manage-annapurna/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Annapurna Conservation Area</a> in 2017, only two pictures of the species were captured in 4,500 trap days. A trap day equals one camera trap kept in the open for 24 hours.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e6a9c7e80680e04fcb4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="720">There was no evidence of this species during one-and-half years of searching in Makalu-Barun National Park, and many other wildlife research efforts in the mid-hills prior to our 2017 work also failed to document the spotted linsang.The animal’s rarity is not the only reason for the few sightings. Will Duckworth at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) believes that it is primarily an ambush hunter that waits for its prey from a hidden location and rarely travels long distances in search of food, making it less likely to be seen.Many also believe this little carnivore occupies a very small area and, as an arboreal mammal, spends much of its time in the branches and canopy of trees making it difficult for sighting.The species is on the IUCN Red List, the global authority on the status of wildlife. On Nepal’s National Red List, the spotted linsang is classified as a data deficient species, which means there is very little evidence to classify its status. This is unfortunate because only by knowing a species’ status can relevant conservation initiatives be carried out.As one of the country’s most elusive animals, there is no doubt that having more knowledge about the spotted linsang would help develop a bond between the public and the animal, which would in turn help make conservation initiatives easier.Yadav Ghimirey is a conservation biologist at Friends of Nature. He has been working with wild cat species in Nepal since 2008. mustela.altaica@yahoo.com

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Lesser known endangered species

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636903449c7e80680e037cb0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="885"/>After being hunted nearly to extinction, Nepal’s tiger numbers  surged in recent decades thanks to a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Conservation-and-tourism-Chitwan-National-Park,2957" target="_blank" rel="noopener">successful conservation program</a>. But with Nepal committed to double its tiger numbers, there are questions about whether some of the country’s national parks are becoming too crowded.At the World Tiger Summit in 2010 in St Petersburg, 13 tiger range countries <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16820#.W2wXGtUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">committed to doubling tiger populations by 2022</a>. Nepali officials are confident the country’s total wild tiger population can be increased to 242 to reach that goal.“Nepal will be the only country to meet the target, and we will be releasing the total figures of the recent census soon,” said Man Bahadur Khadka, Director General of the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/sun-striped-shadows/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sun striped shadows</a>, Lisa Choegyal The census result, synchronised with a count in India, was supposed to be announced on World Tiger Day on 29 July. But it was suddenly postponed, fuelling speculation the tiger count had decreased from the 2013 total of 198, with 120 of the tigers in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-quality-control-in-tourism,471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chitwan</a> National Park.Some experts say the number could have gone down, because male tigers have been getting into fights over territory. Eleven tigers died in the past three years in Chitwan, five of them so far this year."Animals have been known to limit their own numbers by social mechanisms to avoid depleting prey in their natural habitat. Tigers are territorial, and space is limited to match natural population growth, so this could be what is happening in Chitwan," one international tiger expert told us.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/clouded-future-for-the-clouded-leopard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clouded future for the Clouded Leopard</a>, Yadav GhimireyKhadka denied withholding the announcement because of the total was less than in 2013, saying enumerators were taking longer than expected to go through camera trap images. Every tiger has to be recognised by its stripe pattern, which are as individual as human fingerprints.“We have no need to hide the figures, we just want to be accurate with the count, and there are other factors like reconciling individual tigers with camera trap images from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3126#.W2wXMNUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India</a>,” Khadka added.However, delaying the announcement has raised fears Nepal may not increase the tiger total by 50 tigers in the next four years.“Someone, somewhere seems to want to cook the data. If so, this will hurt Nepal’s credibility in the global conservation movement that has so far praised Nepal’s effort to protect the tiger,” said the expert.Even if the target is met, however, tiger numbers could exceed the carrying capacity of protected areas, especially <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=12200#.W2fawWaB1TY" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chitwan</a>.Habitat destruction, human encroachment along wildlife corridors, new highways, transmission lines, irrigation canals and new  railroads <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/habitat-destrcution-of-tiger-in-Tarai,3423" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disturb the ecosystem of which the tiger is at the top of the food chain</a>.If Chitwan has reached saturation, tiger numbers may need to be boosted in Bardia, which has 50 tigers, but has area to sustain double that number. National parks in Banke and Parsa can also accommodate more tigers if the prey base is increased.There have always been questions about whether Nepal should have committed to doubling tiger numbers, when protected space is so limited and prey numbers are shrinking. When tiger territories overlap, there is fierce competition between individuals as well as with other predators, like leopards, for prey.An average tiger needs to make at least one kill of a deer-sized animal a week – that makes 12,000 kills per year. Chitwan has a lower large prey density than Bardia, and conservationists doubt if it is sufficient to sustain so many tigers.The tall grass along floodplains and oxbow lakes of the Narayani and Rapti Rivers are the ideal habitat of the tiger, but these are threatened by invasive mikania vines, disturbance due to mass tourism, and annual grass-burning. Chitwan’s wetlands, favourite watering holes for tigers, have also been going dry because of the dropping water table in the Inner Tarai due to over-extraction.The sharpest increase in tiger numbers in recent years has been in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/bardiya-beginnings-Lisa-Choegyal,1085" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bardia </a> National Park, with the population going up from 18 in 2009 to 50, four years later. But even for Bardia to take more tigers, its grasslands and water courses need to be protected so prey can thrive.Man Bahadur Khadka says the government will now announce the official tiger tally on National Conservation Day on 23 September, adding: “We are not doctoring the numbers, we are just trying to be accurate as possible.”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCtyrTtZRLQ<h2>WWF video</h2><h4>Tigerman Leonardo DiCaprio</h4>For the past decade, Hollywood actor <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000138/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Leonardo DiCaprio</a> has been <a href="https://www.leonardodicaprio.org/protecting-wild-tigers-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supporting the WWF campaign</a> to double wild tiger numbers through his philanthropic organisation.<a href="http://www.wwfnepal.org/what_we_do/wildlife/tiger/tx2.cfm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The initiative</a> funds tiger conservation in 13 tiger range countries, including Nepal, to boost the numbers of wild tigers to 6,000 by the next Year of the Tiger, 2022. Currently there are 3,900 tigers in the wild all over the world, up from 3,000 eight years ago, with most of the increase in Russia, India, Bhutan and Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636903479c7e80680e037cb1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="931"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In Nepal, DiCaprio has donated nearly $7 million to WWF to boost tiger numbers. The resources were used to set up more than 400 community anti-poaching groups in areas bordering national parks and wildlife corridors, and to help reduce human-tiger conflict.DiCaprio visited <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/bardiya-beginnings-Lisa-Choegyal,1085" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bardia National Park</a> two years ago to inspect anti-poaching initiatives and to set up camera traps (right). He said after the visit: “I am proud of the work being done here. Tigers are some of the most vital and beloved animals on Earth. I am optimistic about what can be achieved when governments, communities, conservationists and private foundations like ours come together to tackle global challenges.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/6369034a9c7e80680e037cb2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="541"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>WWF has also been trying to re-invigorate the tiger grassland habitat by constructing and upgrading wetlands and waterholes, establishing firelines against forest fires, and installing solar-powered electric fences.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/habitat-destrcution-of-tiger-in-Tarai,3423" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Allow tigers to roam more freely</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Conservation-and-tourism-Chitwan-National-Park,2957" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Conservation and tourism</a> , Kristjan Edwards<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/Tigerman-tiger,930" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tigerman</a> , Lisa Choegyal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-cantankerous-conservationist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The cantankerous conservationist</a> , Lisa Choegyal

Kunda Dixit

How many tigers in Nepal?

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138