<figure><img width="873" height="655" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3779c7e80680e08f96bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Prakash Parajuli at the Tribhuvan International Airport, before boarding his flight to Japan. PHOTO: PRAKASH PARAJULI</figcaption></figure>On 21 December 2020, Prakash Parajuli was waiting at the Tribhuvan International Airport to board his flight to Japan. He had secured necessary paperwork for his job there as a caregiver, and was in high spirits at the prospect of starting anew despite the pandemic.Parajuli is employed under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-future-is-older/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Japan Government’s Specified Skilled Worker</a> (SSW) residence status. “This is a result of a lot of hard work and patience. For many months, I focused entirely on studying for the Japanese language test,” Parajuli told Nepali Times before he boarded his plane.After working in Qatar for two years as a cashier with a monthly income of around Rs40,000, he had come home and started looking for fresh migration opportunities. Now, he is set to earn around Rs145,000, excluding overtime and bonuses. “I plan to work very hard and hope to stay long-term in Japan,” he says.In March 2019, the governments of Nepal and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation for the SSW residence program. The SSW1 category of the program allows workers to remain in Japan for a maximum of five years, with workers ensured equality of treatment as well as the ability to change employers within the same sector. There is also a longer-term SSW2 category that allows unlimited visa renewals and dependents. In the next five years, a total of 345,000 workers were to be hired from all SSW partner countries. <img width="200" height="174" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3799c7e80680e08f96cjpeg.jpg" alt="">In addition to the win-win situation that such labour programs afford, by helping 14 sectors address severe worker shortages in super-aging Japan (see figure), it also allows Nepali youth to be gainfully employed at higher earnings in a secure labor market. Nepal had one more reason to be jubilant— it was the second country to sign the agreement with Japan after the Philippines. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd37a9c7e80680e08f96djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But little did we know that almost two years down the road, Parajuli would be just one of the handful of Nepalis who would benefit from this agreement despite the head start.The agreement was a hybrid of the existing agreements Nepal has with other countries: it was neither a purely government-to-government model like that with South Korea or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Israel</a>, nor did it allow recruiters to play a role like the agreements with Malaysia and select Gulf countries. It was signed under a government-to-business model in which the Nepal Government proposed setting up a Japan Unit at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-recruiter-netted-in-sting-raid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Department of Foreign Employment</a> (DOFE) to oversee all aspects of the SSW implementation.On the Japan side, the government played a more hands-off role and allowed the private sector to participate including employers, recruiters and support organisations. “This mixed modality is creating widespread confusion as there is a misconception that this is a government-to-government modality, while it isn’t,” says Yuzo Yoshioka, Charge d'Affaires, Embassy of Japan in Nepal.This government-to-business model envisioned a proactive government that would take on added responsibilities in lieu of the recruiters via the Japan Unit. It was an attempt to ensure that the flawed technical implementation experiences related to the past programs would not be further exacerbated in this model, forcing workers to pay hefty amounts to land in the destination job market. Especially, noting that the Japanese Government did not want to be involved in the cost issue but trusted the involved employer-worker to mutually agree on such details. This was viewed as risky for Nepal, given the trend of rampant malpractices that worsen with the attractiveness of destination countries.The success of this hybrid model, however, rested on a proactive Japan Unit that imitated the private sector’s strengths in marketing, matching, information sharing and employer engagement. Most recruiters are very good at following up on these details, but these comparative advantages are obscured by the malpractices in the industry, often at the cost of the most vulnerable workers.To be fair, the overall SSW program itself has had a rough start. The number of countries that Japan has signed agreements with has increased over the last two years with the addition of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and most recently, India. But deployment has been poor across the board.Started in April 2019, SSW1 visas have only been issued to 8,769 workers (see figure) as of September 2020, which is less than a tenth of the target. Over 60% are from Vietnam, followed by Indonesia and the Philippines. Many of them were already based in Japan under other statuses, who simply changed their residence status to SSW1. For a program that has had a bumpy start, the onset of Covid-19 further derailed progress. <figure><img width="1150" height="784" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd37d9c7e80680e08f96ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Tests have been ongoing for a while now, in various countries including Nepal. While the SSW program covers 14 sectors facing worker shortages, so far, tests have been arranged only for the caregiving sector in Nepal. <a href="http://ac.prometric-jp.com/testlist/ssw/index.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://ac.prometric-jp.com/testlist/ssw/index.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611462015510000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEEt1pnPBFBFCtd7JTrgi40Yzql3g">Tests</a> in other sectors like the food industry and agriculture are scheduled for February and March. Japan-based Nepalis have also been taking advantage of the tests administered in Japan to enable them to switch to SSW1status.Hari Sangroula from Universal Training Center shares, “The performance of Nepali students in the exams has improved over time. Initially, there was confusion about the content and exam modality so the learning curve was steep. Performance in care worker skills exams has significantly increased, but students are still struggling with the language exams in which pass rates are relatively lower.”  Unlike in the language exam for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dead-end-of-the-korean-dream/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">South Korea</a>'s Employment Permit Scheme program where all eligible candidates are allowed to appear for the language exams, the number of test-takers in Japan is limited and conducted multiple times a year. “Earlier, the selection of test-takers was based on a lottery system. Now students are selected on a first-come-first-serve basis online, and it takes just a minute or two for all the available seats to fill-up which can be stressful for aspiring test-takers,” says Sangroula.According to Yoshioka from the Japan Embassy, in the last two fiscal years, 234 Nepalis have passed the technical examination for care workers whereas 207 have passed the language exam. “So, over 200 aspirants are eligible to work as caregivers in Japan and they will have to make the effort to find suitable employment opportunities,” he says.  <figure><img width="1458" height="758" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3809c7e80680e08f96fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And therein lies the confusion, as the Japan Unit at Department of Foreign Employment (DOFE) is still not functional, whereas private sector intermediaries are barred from participating. Both employers and migrants are unfamiliar with the recruitment and employment system in the other country.“There is a Japan Unit at DOFE, but it is not fully functional yet. The directive that will detail the mandate of the Japan Unit, including information dissemination to aspirants, coordination with employers, selection and visa processing support is being finalised at the Labor Ministry,” explains Tika Neupane, Spokesperson at DOFE.There are students who have reached out to DOFE after completing the exams successfully, questioning what to do next and DOFE allowed them to take individual labour approvals. “However, the full implementation of the SSW as per the agreement with Japan Unit taking on a large, more hands-on role has yet to begin. The directive that is being finalised will clarify the implementation details,” Neupane adds.“Only 69 Nepalis are currently under the SSW residential status so far in Japan. But a good majority of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepalis who were already in Japan</a>, simply switched to the SSW1 residence status from other statuses like technical intern. They are mostly involved in the food industry,” Yoshioko says.In 2019, the Nepal Embassy issued 7 visas for SSW although it is not clear how many among them passed the exams in Nepal versus Japan. More visas have been issued in 2020, but the data has not been made public yet. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3849c7e80680e08f970jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While individual labour approvals are being issued by DOFE, which means a migrant can independently arrange his contract with the employer and would be provided the labor approval by DOFE, it is easier said than done. The employment system is complex to navigate: from job search to obtaining the visa related paperwork, confusion related to language differences, distance and unfamiliarity of contexts and practices prevail.Sujit Shrestha, General Secretary of the Nepal Association of Foreign Employment Agencies (NAFEA), attributes the ongoing delay to finalise the directive to heavy political interference and vested interests. A leaked version of the Directive includes a provision of a ‘third party’ that is registered in Japan and recommended by the Nepal Embassy to facilitate the recruitment of SSW workers, including the evaluation of employers in Japan and demand collection from employers. This has been heavily contested by recruiters in Nepal who are excluded from the agreement and want part of this lucrative corridor.“The leaked directive contradicts the original spirit of the agreement that barred the private sector from participating in the implementation of the SSW program. The Government barred the involvement of recruiters while the Japan Unit hasn’t been able to deliver and even if it is functional, it won’t be able to mobilise at scale. They should have let us do it under defined criteria and monitor our activities closely like other countries. The government should be dealing with the government counterparts of destination countries, and not the private sector,” he says.However, Neupane from DOFE insists that the SSW directive will be as envisaged in the original agreement with a fully functional Japan unit.Pre-pandemic, a survey in 2019 showed that over 61 percent Japanese companies reported not receiving applications to jobs offered (see figure). The Nepal Government dragged its feet in the initial two years after the signing of the agreement. As employers in Japan figure out the nuts and bolts of recruiting under the SSW status and further intensify their cross-border efforts to address their human resource challenges, making the process unnecessarily confusing will work against Nepali aspirants, especially as there are other 12 countries to choose from. Nepalis are already investing time, effort and money to prepare for the exams, with many, as seen in the case of over 200 successful test-takers, who are looking for guidance on being matched with employers in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/nepali-caregivers-in-israel,3809" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">caregiving sector</a>. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3879c7e80680e08f971jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Amid the confusions and delays, a few language institutes like Universal and Reiwa have stepped in to intermediate and garnered recognition among aspirants for helping them connect to employers. They explain that they have facilitated the interviews with care centers in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Japan</a> free of cost to the migrants because but are being compensated by their Japan-based partners. Four SSW workers at various stages of the recruitment and deployment process have confirmed this to Nepali Times. This is encouraging, with the caveat that workers seldom reveal details of service fees paid, in fear of retribution. Data obtained by Universal Training Center from the Japan Foundation shows that, of the couple hundred that have passed both exams, around 96 have gone further with the process and passed interviews, completed paperwork, and received their Certificate of Eligibility (COE), the last step required before they can apply for visas. But there are delays and uncertainty in obtaining visas due to the pandemic. Santosh Neupane who is part of the management of Reiwa Nepal, a language institute that cooperates with Japan based recruiter Dogwood Group, emphasises on a strong partnership between the private sector and the Nepal Government to ensure the SSW implementation. “It is far-fetched to expect employers to carry out all recruitment activities on their own by coordinating with Japan Unit that will not be as involved as the private intermediaries are for nitty-gritty details even if it were to be functional. The added burden may dissuade employers, who will source workers from Philippines or Vietnam, instead,” says Neupane. <figure><img width="720" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd38a9c7e80680e08f972jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While confusion abounds and there is a pressing need for a functional Japan Unit or another alternate to the woeful inaction, the lucky few Nepalis who manage to overcome the odds are thankful for the opportunity.  Binu Gurung, was one of the first and few SSW workers from Nepal who arrived in Japan in November 2020. “I am now in my training period but am getting paid my regular wages. Most of the Japanese I take care of are in their 80s and 90s,” she said over the phone.A pioneer SSW Nepali, she has become a mentor for other Nepalis who want to work in Japan. She is pleased with the support she has been receiving as a financially secure future looms in the horizon. Her husband, too, has taken Japanese language classes and is waiting for his opportunity to take the exam so he can join her.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd38d9c7e80680e08f973jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="694" height="960">Binu Gurung working in Japan as a caregiver. PHOTO: BINU GURUNG Things do not always fall into place for everyone, like it did for Binu. Despite successfully completing his language and skills exams, Phanindra Sedai, has failed the interviews with prospective employers. “I have taken the interview three times already. I won’t stop reapplying because I have already invested an enormous amount of time and effort and passed the tests,” says Sedai, who worked in Malaysia for eight years as a security guard now runs a small shop in Nepal, brushing up on Japanese vocabulary when he has time.Sangroula from Universal says employers are looking for more than communication skills. “The way they conduct themselves, their demeanor—all matter during online video interviews. To help frail, aging patients with everyday tasks and be their sole companion in their twilight years is a demanding job requiring an enormous amount of compassion and patience.”

Upasana Khadka

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Nepal-Japan jobs deal still stuck

<figure><img width="1440" height="1080" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912114/636b89d69c7e80680e06b20bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: ALISHA SIJAPATI</figcaption></figure>Even before the two-week lockdown, more and more Nepali families with elderly relatives hired nursing care at home. Several companies had started up as demand from the Nepali diaspora added to the need for home caregivers. The COVID-19 lockdown had accelerated this trend.  Srijana Paudel (pictured above), 21, a certified nurse has been looking after a bed-ridden elderly woman in Lalitpur for more than six months. But on 23 March, when Prime Minister K P Oli went on television to announce a nationwide lockdown from 6 AM the next morning, she was in a fix.While hospital workers and ambulances are allowed on the roads, many nurses taking care of elderly or sick family members could not commute to and from their own homes anymore. So, Paudel has been forced to stay over at her patient’s home for the past ten days, without being able to take care of her own family.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-nepals-elderly-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Nepal's elderly from COVID-19</a>, Alisha Sijapati<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-those-who-protect-us-from-the-epidemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting those who protect us from the epidemic</a>, Ramu Sapkota“I feel bad not being able to return to my home and be with my family, but looking after someone more vulnerable is my duty as a nurse and I will make my best effort to protect them,” Poudel says. “It would make me feel more guilty if I stayed home. I have become close with my patient’s family, so that helps.” There are over 200 nurses and caregivers like Srijana Paudel from various home care services in Kathmandu working in private residences of elderly patients. Seniors and patients with pre-existing medical conditions such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease are more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the novel coronavirus, making the need for the home caregivers even more critical.  <figure><img width="1000" height="662" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912114/636b89d99c7e80680e06b20cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Rupa Joshi of Bag Bazar has two elderly relatives to look after in her household: a 105-year-old grandmother-in-law and a mother-in-law who is 90. Both require special assistance. “We had been on self-quarantine even before the lockdown to protect elderly family-members and reduce the risk of contamination,” says Joshi who has asked her mother-in-law’s caregiver to stay with her own family until the lockdown is lifted to avoid contamination. Another caregiver has been asked to live-in so she does not catch the virus during her commute. “Our caregivers are like family members now, and in this difficult situation we have to help them, and accommodate their needs too,” Joshi adds.  While some <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/caring-for-those-who-cared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home care services</a> had drawn up a contingency plan two weeks before the lockdown, other health providers have had to change their schedules overnight to cater to patients since the shutdown.  <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/8-ways-to-keep-well-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8 ways to keep well during a lockdown</a>, Marcia ChenAt Patan based health care service Medilink, Sushmita Khanal has been working non-stop from her home to cater to her clients and also address the needs of her caregivers who look after older patients. “We knew COVID-19 and the lockdown was inevitable, but I wish we had more time to buy equipment and medicines and plan effectively,” Khanal said over the phone. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home care</a> had already become a trend in Nepal even before the pandemic scare as family members worked fulltime, and there was no one to take care of elderly relatives. The job has become even more challenging and necessary during the lockdown.  <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/home-work-during-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Work from home during the lockdown</a>, Saniaa ShahBishal Dhakal was a resident surgeon in Pakistan, and returned to Kathmandu in 2009 to start a health service provider, Health at Home. Although his clients need services now more than ever, he says the economic downturn may affect the ability of families to hire services like his.  “We have clients from all backgrounds, but since most of them work on monthly salaries we can foresee many clients cancelling their contracts in the next couple of months,” says Dhakal. Fearing a slump, Dhakal’s Health at Home, Sushmita Khanal’s Medilink have put off expansion plans in their businesses. However, their central focus continues to be in giving best possible service to existing patients during the lockdown, and communicating virtually with caregivers and nurses on preventing the virus from infecting the elderly. While most caregivers and nurses are trapped in the homes where they work, the service providers have managed to get limited transport permits to pick and drop some staff who have families to take care in their own homes. Like Rupa Rai, 22, a nurse at Medilink Health Care who finally got back to her own family after being trapped in her patient’s house for nine days. She says: “I didn’t bring spare clothes, but now I am more prepared mentally for an extended lockdown.”

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Home health care during a lockdown

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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