<figure><img width="873" height="655" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3779c7e80680e08f96bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Prakash Parajuli at the Tribhuvan International Airport, before boarding his flight to Japan. PHOTO: PRAKASH PARAJULI</figcaption></figure>On 21 December 2020, Prakash Parajuli was waiting at the Tribhuvan International Airport to board his flight to Japan. He had secured necessary paperwork for his job there as a caregiver, and was in high spirits at the prospect of starting anew despite the pandemic.Parajuli is employed under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-future-is-older/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Japan Government’s Specified Skilled Worker</a> (SSW) residence status. “This is a result of a lot of hard work and patience. For many months, I focused entirely on studying for the Japanese language test,” Parajuli told Nepali Times before he boarded his plane.After working in Qatar for two years as a cashier with a monthly income of around Rs40,000, he had come home and started looking for fresh migration opportunities. Now, he is set to earn around Rs145,000, excluding overtime and bonuses. “I plan to work very hard and hope to stay long-term in Japan,” he says.In March 2019, the governments of Nepal and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation for the SSW residence program. The SSW1 category of the program allows workers to remain in Japan for a maximum of five years, with workers ensured equality of treatment as well as the ability to change employers within the same sector. There is also a longer-term SSW2 category that allows unlimited visa renewals and dependents. In the next five years, a total of 345,000 workers were to be hired from all SSW partner countries. <img width="200" height="174" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3799c7e80680e08f96cjpeg.jpg" alt="">In addition to the win-win situation that such labour programs afford, by helping 14 sectors address severe worker shortages in super-aging Japan (see figure), it also allows Nepali youth to be gainfully employed at higher earnings in a secure labor market. Nepal had one more reason to be jubilant— it was the second country to sign the agreement with Japan after the Philippines. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd37a9c7e80680e08f96djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But little did we know that almost two years down the road, Parajuli would be just one of the handful of Nepalis who would benefit from this agreement despite the head start.The agreement was a hybrid of the existing agreements Nepal has with other countries: it was neither a purely government-to-government model like that with South Korea or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Israel</a>, nor did it allow recruiters to play a role like the agreements with Malaysia and select Gulf countries. It was signed under a government-to-business model in which the Nepal Government proposed setting up a Japan Unit at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-recruiter-netted-in-sting-raid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Department of Foreign Employment</a> (DOFE) to oversee all aspects of the SSW implementation.On the Japan side, the government played a more hands-off role and allowed the private sector to participate including employers, recruiters and support organisations. “This mixed modality is creating widespread confusion as there is a misconception that this is a government-to-government modality, while it isn’t,” says Yuzo Yoshioka, Charge d'Affaires, Embassy of Japan in Nepal.This government-to-business model envisioned a proactive government that would take on added responsibilities in lieu of the recruiters via the Japan Unit. It was an attempt to ensure that the flawed technical implementation experiences related to the past programs would not be further exacerbated in this model, forcing workers to pay hefty amounts to land in the destination job market. Especially, noting that the Japanese Government did not want to be involved in the cost issue but trusted the involved employer-worker to mutually agree on such details. This was viewed as risky for Nepal, given the trend of rampant malpractices that worsen with the attractiveness of destination countries.The success of this hybrid model, however, rested on a proactive Japan Unit that imitated the private sector’s strengths in marketing, matching, information sharing and employer engagement. Most recruiters are very good at following up on these details, but these comparative advantages are obscured by the malpractices in the industry, often at the cost of the most vulnerable workers.To be fair, the overall SSW program itself has had a rough start. The number of countries that Japan has signed agreements with has increased over the last two years with the addition of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and most recently, India. But deployment has been poor across the board.Started in April 2019, SSW1 visas have only been issued to 8,769 workers (see figure) as of September 2020, which is less than a tenth of the target. Over 60% are from Vietnam, followed by Indonesia and the Philippines. Many of them were already based in Japan under other statuses, who simply changed their residence status to SSW1. For a program that has had a bumpy start, the onset of Covid-19 further derailed progress. <figure><img width="1150" height="784" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd37d9c7e80680e08f96ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Tests have been ongoing for a while now, in various countries including Nepal. While the SSW program covers 14 sectors facing worker shortages, so far, tests have been arranged only for the caregiving sector in Nepal. <a href="http://ac.prometric-jp.com/testlist/ssw/index.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://ac.prometric-jp.com/testlist/ssw/index.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611462015510000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEEt1pnPBFBFCtd7JTrgi40Yzql3g">Tests</a> in other sectors like the food industry and agriculture are scheduled for February and March. Japan-based Nepalis have also been taking advantage of the tests administered in Japan to enable them to switch to SSW1status.Hari Sangroula from Universal Training Center shares, “The performance of Nepali students in the exams has improved over time. Initially, there was confusion about the content and exam modality so the learning curve was steep. Performance in care worker skills exams has significantly increased, but students are still struggling with the language exams in which pass rates are relatively lower.”  Unlike in the language exam for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dead-end-of-the-korean-dream/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">South Korea</a>'s Employment Permit Scheme program where all eligible candidates are allowed to appear for the language exams, the number of test-takers in Japan is limited and conducted multiple times a year. “Earlier, the selection of test-takers was based on a lottery system. Now students are selected on a first-come-first-serve basis online, and it takes just a minute or two for all the available seats to fill-up which can be stressful for aspiring test-takers,” says Sangroula.According to Yoshioka from the Japan Embassy, in the last two fiscal years, 234 Nepalis have passed the technical examination for care workers whereas 207 have passed the language exam. “So, over 200 aspirants are eligible to work as caregivers in Japan and they will have to make the effort to find suitable employment opportunities,” he says.  <figure><img width="1458" height="758" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3809c7e80680e08f96fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And therein lies the confusion, as the Japan Unit at Department of Foreign Employment (DOFE) is still not functional, whereas private sector intermediaries are barred from participating. Both employers and migrants are unfamiliar with the recruitment and employment system in the other country.“There is a Japan Unit at DOFE, but it is not fully functional yet. The directive that will detail the mandate of the Japan Unit, including information dissemination to aspirants, coordination with employers, selection and visa processing support is being finalised at the Labor Ministry,” explains Tika Neupane, Spokesperson at DOFE.There are students who have reached out to DOFE after completing the exams successfully, questioning what to do next and DOFE allowed them to take individual labour approvals. “However, the full implementation of the SSW as per the agreement with Japan Unit taking on a large, more hands-on role has yet to begin. The directive that is being finalised will clarify the implementation details,” Neupane adds.“Only 69 Nepalis are currently under the SSW residential status so far in Japan. But a good majority of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepalis who were already in Japan</a>, simply switched to the SSW1 residence status from other statuses like technical intern. They are mostly involved in the food industry,” Yoshioko says.In 2019, the Nepal Embassy issued 7 visas for SSW although it is not clear how many among them passed the exams in Nepal versus Japan. More visas have been issued in 2020, but the data has not been made public yet. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3849c7e80680e08f970jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While individual labour approvals are being issued by DOFE, which means a migrant can independently arrange his contract with the employer and would be provided the labor approval by DOFE, it is easier said than done. The employment system is complex to navigate: from job search to obtaining the visa related paperwork, confusion related to language differences, distance and unfamiliarity of contexts and practices prevail.Sujit Shrestha, General Secretary of the Nepal Association of Foreign Employment Agencies (NAFEA), attributes the ongoing delay to finalise the directive to heavy political interference and vested interests. A leaked version of the Directive includes a provision of a ‘third party’ that is registered in Japan and recommended by the Nepal Embassy to facilitate the recruitment of SSW workers, including the evaluation of employers in Japan and demand collection from employers. This has been heavily contested by recruiters in Nepal who are excluded from the agreement and want part of this lucrative corridor.“The leaked directive contradicts the original spirit of the agreement that barred the private sector from participating in the implementation of the SSW program. The Government barred the involvement of recruiters while the Japan Unit hasn’t been able to deliver and even if it is functional, it won’t be able to mobilise at scale. They should have let us do it under defined criteria and monitor our activities closely like other countries. The government should be dealing with the government counterparts of destination countries, and not the private sector,” he says.However, Neupane from DOFE insists that the SSW directive will be as envisaged in the original agreement with a fully functional Japan unit.Pre-pandemic, a survey in 2019 showed that over 61 percent Japanese companies reported not receiving applications to jobs offered (see figure). The Nepal Government dragged its feet in the initial two years after the signing of the agreement. As employers in Japan figure out the nuts and bolts of recruiting under the SSW status and further intensify their cross-border efforts to address their human resource challenges, making the process unnecessarily confusing will work against Nepali aspirants, especially as there are other 12 countries to choose from. Nepalis are already investing time, effort and money to prepare for the exams, with many, as seen in the case of over 200 successful test-takers, who are looking for guidance on being matched with employers in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/nepali-caregivers-in-israel,3809" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">caregiving sector</a>. <figure><img width="1768" height="996" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd3879c7e80680e08f971jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Amid the confusions and delays, a few language institutes like Universal and Reiwa have stepped in to intermediate and garnered recognition among aspirants for helping them connect to employers. They explain that they have facilitated the interviews with care centers in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Japan</a> free of cost to the migrants because but are being compensated by their Japan-based partners. Four SSW workers at various stages of the recruitment and deployment process have confirmed this to Nepali Times. This is encouraging, with the caveat that workers seldom reveal details of service fees paid, in fear of retribution. Data obtained by Universal Training Center from the Japan Foundation shows that, of the couple hundred that have passed both exams, around 96 have gone further with the process and passed interviews, completed paperwork, and received their Certificate of Eligibility (COE), the last step required before they can apply for visas. But there are delays and uncertainty in obtaining visas due to the pandemic. Santosh Neupane who is part of the management of Reiwa Nepal, a language institute that cooperates with Japan based recruiter Dogwood Group, emphasises on a strong partnership between the private sector and the Nepal Government to ensure the SSW implementation. “It is far-fetched to expect employers to carry out all recruitment activities on their own by coordinating with Japan Unit that will not be as involved as the private intermediaries are for nitty-gritty details even if it were to be functional. The added burden may dissuade employers, who will source workers from Philippines or Vietnam, instead,” says Neupane. <figure><img width="720" height="960" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd38a9c7e80680e08f972jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While confusion abounds and there is a pressing need for a functional Japan Unit or another alternate to the woeful inaction, the lucky few Nepalis who manage to overcome the odds are thankful for the opportunity.  Binu Gurung, was one of the first and few SSW workers from Nepal who arrived in Japan in November 2020. “I am now in my training period but am getting paid my regular wages. Most of the Japanese I take care of are in their 80s and 90s,” she said over the phone.A pioneer SSW Nepali, she has become a mentor for other Nepalis who want to work in Japan. She is pleased with the support she has been receiving as a financially secure future looms in the horizon. Her husband, too, has taken Japanese language classes and is waiting for his opportunity to take the exam so he can join her.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111132/636cd38d9c7e80680e08f973jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="694" height="960">Binu Gurung working in Japan as a caregiver. PHOTO: BINU GURUNG Things do not always fall into place for everyone, like it did for Binu. Despite successfully completing his language and skills exams, Phanindra Sedai, has failed the interviews with prospective employers. “I have taken the interview three times already. I won’t stop reapplying because I have already invested an enormous amount of time and effort and passed the tests,” says Sedai, who worked in Malaysia for eight years as a security guard now runs a small shop in Nepal, brushing up on Japanese vocabulary when he has time.Sangroula from Universal says employers are looking for more than communication skills. “The way they conduct themselves, their demeanor—all matter during online video interviews. To help frail, aging patients with everyday tasks and be their sole companion in their twilight years is a demanding job requiring an enormous amount of compassion and patience.”

Upasana Khadka

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Nepal-Japan jobs deal still stuck

<figure><img width="1440" height="1080" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912114/636b89d69c7e80680e06b20bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: ALISHA SIJAPATI</figcaption></figure>Even before the two-week lockdown, more and more Nepali families with elderly relatives hired nursing care at home. Several companies had started up as demand from the Nepali diaspora added to the need for home caregivers. The COVID-19 lockdown had accelerated this trend.  Srijana Paudel (pictured above), 21, a certified nurse has been looking after a bed-ridden elderly woman in Lalitpur for more than six months. But on 23 March, when Prime Minister K P Oli went on television to announce a nationwide lockdown from 6 AM the next morning, she was in a fix.While hospital workers and ambulances are allowed on the roads, many nurses taking care of elderly or sick family members could not commute to and from their own homes anymore. So, Paudel has been forced to stay over at her patient’s home for the past ten days, without being able to take care of her own family.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-nepals-elderly-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Nepal's elderly from COVID-19</a>, Alisha Sijapati<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-those-who-protect-us-from-the-epidemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting those who protect us from the epidemic</a>, Ramu Sapkota“I feel bad not being able to return to my home and be with my family, but looking after someone more vulnerable is my duty as a nurse and I will make my best effort to protect them,” Poudel says. “It would make me feel more guilty if I stayed home. I have become close with my patient’s family, so that helps.” There are over 200 nurses and caregivers like Srijana Paudel from various home care services in Kathmandu working in private residences of elderly patients. Seniors and patients with pre-existing medical conditions such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease are more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the novel coronavirus, making the need for the home caregivers even more critical.  <figure><img width="1000" height="662" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912114/636b89d99c7e80680e06b20cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Rupa Joshi of Bag Bazar has two elderly relatives to look after in her household: a 105-year-old grandmother-in-law and a mother-in-law who is 90. Both require special assistance. “We had been on self-quarantine even before the lockdown to protect elderly family-members and reduce the risk of contamination,” says Joshi who has asked her mother-in-law’s caregiver to stay with her own family until the lockdown is lifted to avoid contamination. Another caregiver has been asked to live-in so she does not catch the virus during her commute. “Our caregivers are like family members now, and in this difficult situation we have to help them, and accommodate their needs too,” Joshi adds.  While some <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/caring-for-those-who-cared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home care services</a> had drawn up a contingency plan two weeks before the lockdown, other health providers have had to change their schedules overnight to cater to patients since the shutdown.  <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/8-ways-to-keep-well-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8 ways to keep well during a lockdown</a>, Marcia ChenAt Patan based health care service Medilink, Sushmita Khanal has been working non-stop from her home to cater to her clients and also address the needs of her caregivers who look after older patients. “We knew COVID-19 and the lockdown was inevitable, but I wish we had more time to buy equipment and medicines and plan effectively,” Khanal said over the phone. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home care</a> had already become a trend in Nepal even before the pandemic scare as family members worked fulltime, and there was no one to take care of elderly relatives. The job has become even more challenging and necessary during the lockdown.  <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/home-work-during-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Work from home during the lockdown</a>, Saniaa ShahBishal Dhakal was a resident surgeon in Pakistan, and returned to Kathmandu in 2009 to start a health service provider, Health at Home. Although his clients need services now more than ever, he says the economic downturn may affect the ability of families to hire services like his.  “We have clients from all backgrounds, but since most of them work on monthly salaries we can foresee many clients cancelling their contracts in the next couple of months,” says Dhakal. Fearing a slump, Dhakal’s Health at Home, Sushmita Khanal’s Medilink have put off expansion plans in their businesses. However, their central focus continues to be in giving best possible service to existing patients during the lockdown, and communicating virtually with caregivers and nurses on preventing the virus from infecting the elderly. While most caregivers and nurses are trapped in the homes where they work, the service providers have managed to get limited transport permits to pick and drop some staff who have families to take care in their own homes. Like Rupa Rai, 22, a nurse at Medilink Health Care who finally got back to her own family after being trapped in her patient’s house for nine days. She says: “I didn’t bring spare clothes, but now I am more prepared mentally for an extended lockdown.”

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Home health care during a lockdown

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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