<img width="1400" height="934" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07729c7e80680e0a5fbfjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>In one of his moves to shore up public support, former Prime Minister K P Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/govt-not-employers-responsible-for-employees/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">launched his much-vaunted Social Security Fund (SSF)</a> in November 2018 amidst much fanfare.  The government bought full-page ads in the national media, and Oli’s face was on SSF posters all over the country. Oli was trying to ride a populist wave <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/social-insecurity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ahead of the 2023 elections</a>, and pushed a project actually designed under a previous government.  The SSF was billed as a ‘birth of a new era’ while promising the ‘protection of the working class’.  Now, with Oli no longer prime minister, the future of the scheme has been thrown into doubt. Most of its supposed beneficiaries are not convinced about it, the private sector is taking a wait-and-watch approach, and there have been few takers.  Earlier this month, trade unions of 22 commercial banks filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court demanding a repeal of mandatory listing in the SSF, citing that it was less beneficial to workers than existing welfare funds.   “We have been receiving government-set assistance from appointment to retirement, it makes no sense to opt for SSF, slashing our current benefits,” says Padmaraj Regmi of the Financial Institutions Employees Union Nepal (FIEUN). The employees argue that they have been in service before the implementation of the Labour Act 2017 and hence are covered by the regulations of Section 133(1) of the Bank and Financial Institution Act 2017. Moreover, they add that banks and financial institutions have also set up a separate welfare fund for their employees, which they find more beneficial and practical.  On 9 April, SSF issued a notice to the employers who had missed the listing for compulsory registration by mid-July. The fund had similarly written letters to the Nepal Bankers’ Association on 16 March and 31 May calling for their registration. While banks and employers were willing to take part, the backlash and workers’ agitation have made them reconsider. Says CEO of Sanima Bank and chairman of Nepal Bankers’ Association Bhuwan Dahal: “Legal arrangements, government plans and policies are on our side, and we work within government guidelines. However, we cannot move forward knowing that our employees have doubts about it.”  Banks and employers in fact stand to gain from the SSF, as compensation in a case of a death of a worker would then be solely managed by the fund.  <img width="1050" height="700" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07759c7e80680e0a5fc0jpeg.jpg" alt="">When Sanaj Khatiwada of Sunrise Bank died in August 2020, his family approached the SSF for compensation. The fund ordered the bank to pay Rs4.3 million in restitution, derived from 60% of the employee’s monthly salary as decreed by the Social Security Scheme Operating Procedures 2018. Global IME Bank was also ordered to pay Rs10.5 million to a victim’s family in a similar case in March. Both banks were not part of the SSF at the time and bore full financial responsibility. SSF spokesperson Bibek Panthi claims that the fund was designed with workers and employees at its centre, and that no benefits will be stripped away upon joining it. “The SSF was set up to ensure that workers couldn’t be exploited and to secure post-retirement life. All benefits outlined in Article 178 of Labour Act 2017 are enshrined by SSF,” he says.However, upon closer inspection of the provisions, one can see why the workers and businesses are up in arms. Entirely contribution-funded, 31% of the basic salary of each employee (11% by workers and 20% by company) must be deposited into the SSF, but some companies are making workers deposit up to 20% out-of-pocket. These are significant financial undertakings in times of slashed income due to the pandemic-induced economic collapse and job losses.When inflation and interest are taken into account, subscribers will in fact lose money. Even so, one must wait until age 60 to receive monthly pensions, but any amount accrued before 60 cannot be withdrawn post-retirement. Monthly accumulations cannot be withdrawn all at once post-retirement, either.Also, funeral costs, accident insurance and medical coverage are not covered after three months of retirement. Moreover, the dependent spouse will receive only 50% compensation if the employee dies after 15 years of receiving the pension. “Saving 30% of salary in the current economic climate is difficult for many, people must have the freedom to choose when it comes to safeguarding their money,” says the former chief of the investment department of Employees’ Provident Fund Arjun Gautam. “It is counterproductive to force customers to leave government-run funds and join another one.” There are also doubts about whether the government can handle sole responsibility for the social security of private workers, especially as the informal sector has not even been factored in. The government plans to cover over three million social taxpayers with the SSF. But as of now, only 14,738 employers and 257,817 contributors are registered from an estimated 923,000 private institutions across the country. With current contributions standing at Rs6.65 billion, experts fear the fund may be financially incapable of handling the tenfold increase in outlays and deposits if and when the informal sector is roped in.  In fact, the SSF is serving the same purpose, but only worse, that existing government schemes provide. The Citizens’ Investment Fund and Employees’ Provident Fund provide hybrid and public sector coverage respectively, with the former already offering 11 service pensions and insurance schemes.  <img width="723" height="398" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07789c7e80680e0a5fc1jpeg.jpg" alt="">“So far no one has come to us to close their accounts and move to the SSF,” says Managing Director of Citizens’ Investment Fund, Raman Nepal. The SSF has issued dozens of notices and extended deadlines for listing multiple times since 17 July 2019 until now, but to no avail.   Private institutions however have no alternative but to sign up for it, says spokesperson Panthi, who blames misinformation and rumour-mongering for the scheme’s failure to meet the expectation.   “The government created this scheme for the workers’ benefit, but they themselves are finding excuses to not join and be at a disadvantage,” he adds. To be sure, there are some progressive clauses in the SSF. In the event of a workplace accident, it will provide full coverage on treatment costs. The SSF also covers occupational hazards and illness as well as monthly funds for the education of dependent children of a deceased employee.  However, the SSF is complicated and unattractive for the general public. It is split into the medical treatment, health and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/who-will-save-nepals-poor-new-mothers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">maternal care</a> plan, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-reintegrate-returning-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">accident and disability protection</a> plan, dependent family protection plan and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-future-is-older/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">elderly </a>protection plan. Contributors who have deposited for three months can cash in on the healthcare and maternal plan, which lasts for three months from the most recent deposit date, but can only be claimed by one spouse.   The dependent family protection plan is further split into education funds, spousal retirement funds, elderly parents' support and final rites expenditure. No matter the cause of death, the subscriber’s spouse is guaranteed to receive monthly stipends of 60% of the deceased’s basic salary. However, if the claimant has alternate sources of income, they are not eligible. This applies to the deceased’s spouse and elderly parents.  The accrued amount and returns from the SSF deposit are added then divided by 180 to be handed out as monthly pension, for which the subscriber must be above 60 and should have contributed for at least 180 months (15 years). Experts say that this time period is too long and impractical, especially when money cannot be withdrawn at will.  It is clear that the planners designed the SSF without taking the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/not-just-social-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic reality and situation of the country</a> into account, say experts, but nonetheless there is a space for improvement. Says Gautam: “We copied a foreign product without considering our economy and quality of public education and health facilities. As it may erode public faith in similar schemes, the fund must be restructured, made more competitive and optional, which will then attract workers.

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Nepalis insecure about new Social Security Fund

<img width="3648" height="2736" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937019c7e80680e03fe0fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Sunil Nepal works in IT in Kathmandu and has been buying provisions and necessities online for three years. But tech savvy as he is, he did not buy anything online on 12.12 on Wednesday, Nepal’s second online shopping day after 11.11 last month when hundreds of heavily discounted products are on sale online.Nepal was not the only person who did not join in. There wasn’t the usual buzz on social media about 12.12 that there is in Pakistan, the country where Daraz originated -- or the publicity in China, the home base of Daraz’s new owner Alibaba Group. <img width="640" height="344" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937049c7e80680e03fe10jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="349" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937079c7e80680e03fe11jpeg.jpg" alt="">Managing Director Lino Ahlering of Daraz Nepal says the company has learnt from its lacklustre performance last month: “12.12 will not be as big as 11.11 but we have done a lot to improve our user experience so Nepali customers will not be shopping online only for one day in a year.”The first online shopping day in Nepal named ‘11.11 Sales Day’ on 11 November offered up to 80% discount on some items for customers in Nepal over a 24-hour period. However, even 12.12 did not really take off because of negative publicity in social media about lack of real discounts, and botched deliveries. <figure><img width="640" height="479" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937099c7e80680e03fe12jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Maybe the country is just not ready yet for e-commerce. It could be that without card payment and online transactions, cash on delivery alone is not enough to take cyber-shopping to a new level.Nepal said he and his friends were excited about the 11.11 sales day before it happened because they had seen Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales in other countries. He had bought a cleaning gel on Daraz in October, and when Sales Day came, he checked the app again and found a similar product was sold for 76% discount.“That’s a really good deal, but when I clicked the product it was a different story,” said Nepal (pictured right) who bought the gel for Rs249 -- only to find out that the same item could be bought for Rs245 in a shopping mall. “That was just ridiculous, it looked like the campaign was misleading.”Nepal posted his experiences on the Twitter and got hundreds of responses, and the negative publicity made it to the mainstream media as well. In response, Daraz said Nepali buyers had the misconception that the company was a retailer. <figure><img width="250" height="263" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/6369370c9c7e80680e03fe13jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Said Managing Director Lino Ahlering: “Daraz is more like a marketplace connecting local sellers with local customers, we have a safety mechanism which does not allow any price increases before the campaign.”Despite the downbeat comments, Ahlering said the 11.11 campaign broke all records for Sale Day, its first since Daraz was bought by China’s e-commerce company, the Alibaba Group. The 11.11 event has been held in China for the last nine years, with more than $30 billion in sales this year on 11 November, which in China is marked as Singles’ Day – as opposed to Valentine’s Day for couples. Even though Nepalis were unaware of the concept of a Singles’ Day and 11.11, Daraz’s brand manager Salina Nakarmi said the portal sold 1,000 Poco phones in less than 30 minutes and almost 50,000 orders were received in 24 hours.  Daraz would not disclose daily sales figures, but Binod Krishna Shrestha of Kathmandu University said that the marketing site does not yet command enough of a brand loyalty yet because most people do not find online purchases trustworthy.  Sixit Bhatta, co-founder of the motorcycle ride-sharing app Tootle, says he is puzzled about why Daraz decided to replicate 11.11 in Nepal.“When you run any campaign, it needs to be culturally contextual. So the first thing I felt was that 11.11 and 12.12 didn’t connect with the Nepali public,” Bhatta (pictured right) said. <figure><img width="640" height="543" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/6369370d9c7e80680e03fe14jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Ahlering is aware of the need to be culturally aligned with the market, but said young Nepali customers are catching on to online shopping. He says Daraz will work on educating buyers through social media, video tutorials and media outreach.He added: “I wouldn’t say everything is perfect now. I think we have a great foundation, but there is still a lot to do.”

Daraz finds Nepalis still shy to shop online

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

commerce

Nepalis insecure about new Social Security Fund

Daraz finds Nepalis still shy to shop online

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138