<figure><img width="1334" height="889" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14189c7e80680e0a995ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Children aged 12-17 started getting inoculated with the Pfizer BioNTech Covid vaccine in Kathmandu on Monday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Not long ago, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/hope-hyperbole-and-hypocrisy-of-covax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to boost or not to boost </a>was the dilemma of rich countries, even as developing nations were struggling to vaccinate their frontline workers and elderly with the first dose.
The argument <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/to-boost-or-not-to-boost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has now reached our part of the world</a>, with some health experts even in Nepal recommending boosters shots for the immune-compromised and frontline workers. In fact, the government’s Teaching Hospital and a few others in Kathmandu this week administered a third booster shot to some patients suffering pre-existing diseases.
The recommendation has been met with some conflicting opinion at a time when only a little over 30% of Nepal’s target population has been fully inoculated against Covid-19. While over half the people in densely populated urban centres like Kathmandu have been vaccinated, parts of rural Nepal are still largely unable to access jabs.
“Our first and foremost priority must be to vaccine everyone, and if we have plenty more vaccines, which we are more than likely to have, the next step is to provide booster shots to people with co-morbidities and the elderly,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences.
Infectious disease specialist at HAMS hospital Anup Subedee agrees: “If the question is what is more advantageous in terms of controlling the pandemic, vaccinating the unvaccinated or offering booster shots, the answer is to vaccinate everyone first.”
Having said that, Subedee adds that Nepal should provide the third dose of VeroCell to individuals who were inoculated with the Chinese vaccine, for higher efficacy, as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
The concern about boosters is mainly because antibody levels decline significantly after 6-9 months of being inoculated, as proven by studies around the world. And as one of the first countries in South Asia to start its Covid-19 vaccination drive, it has been six months since<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-those-who-protect-us-from-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> frontline workers</a> were given jabs.
Some experts, however, say that the human body provides protection also from so-called ‘memory cells’ so that even if vaccine immunity drops, the T and P cells which produce antibodies only when a pathogen attacks. There is no exact estimate of how long the memory cells provide protection, but it is most likely long-term, which means the general population may not need booster shots just yet.  
Those who recover from Covid-19 are even better placed to ward off the infection and its complications, with natural immunity being more effective than that gained by vaccination. And according to the recent seroprevalence survey, over two-third of Nepalis have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that provide them natural immunity.
“Given that 68% of people in Nepal have some form of protection and a significant chunk of the population is fully vaccinated, we don’t have to worry about boosters yet. Our infection rate, hospitalisations and morbidities have all largely declined,” says Sameer Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, which conducted the seroprevalence survey.
The new surge in Europe has been associated with the Delta variant, which has already swept through every corner of Nepal and India, which means a majority of the people here have developed some immunity against it.
“So, we don’t have to panic about another major surge as of now,” Dixit adds.
This is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/too-early-for-nepal-to-let-its-guard-down/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not to say Nepal is out of the woods</a> yet. With a declining number of daily cases and fatalities, schools have reopened, there are wedding parties, crowded marketplaces and indoor seminars are happening all over the country.
Safety measures must be maintained despite higher vaccination rates and declining hospitalisations. This means, continuing to mask up, avoiding crowds and maintaining distance -- especially with the onset of winter and the seasonal risk of coronavirus, influenza and pneumonia infections. There are already reports of students, parents and teachers in Kathmandu schools testing positive for Covid-19.
The government had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pfizer-vaccines-arrive-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">set aside Pfizer </a>vaccines for the immunocompromised, but a lack of uptake meant that students up to age 12 are now being offered the US-made vaccine that has been certified for children.
Shyam Raj Upreti, Nepal’s focal person for the Covid-19 vaccine maintains that the government will start administering booster shots only after nearly 100% of the targeted population has received its first dose, the figure currently stands at about 40%.
Nepal has so far received 25 million doses of vaccines in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-priority-for-vaccine-shipments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">donations or purchase</a>, 30 million more are in the pipeline. “We now have more than enough vaccines for our targeted population, and we are now starting with students,” says Upreti. “The new challenge is to increase vaccine acceptance among those who have so far refused to take it.”
Although surveys have shown that 97% of Nepalis trust vaccines, many pregnant women and those with co-morbidities are refusing to get shots, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fearing side-effects</a>.
Experts caution that Nepal’s response to the pandemic needs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/behind-the-masks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extend beyond vaccinations</a>. The country has to be prepared for a possible surge, and this means contact tracing including the testing of the children, stringent quarantine and isolation, well-equipped health infrastructure and trained medical staff to operate them.
“Another surge might not be a major one but it could still be on a scale sufficient to significantly impact our economy and lives,” adds Anup Subedee. “So we have to be prepared. But a lot of it boils down to political will, and an efficient bureaucracy that is focused on controlling the pandemic.”
Indeed, Covid-19 is here to stay which means continued vigilance and precautions like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">masking and physical distancing</a>. Warns physician Buddha Basnyat: “Covid-19 is a wily virus, and it is still a formidable foe. We can’t let down our guards yet.”

Sonia Awale

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Do Nepalis need Covid booster shots?

How Nepal must prepare for 3rd Covid wave

<figure><img width="1500" height="970" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd8d39c7e80680e092e63jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>After immunising over 1.6 million Nepalis against Covid-19, the government now plans to administer the rest of the 600,000 jabs that it has in stock for second doses starting 20 April. But it needs at least another million shots to cover all those who inoculated in the first and second phases, as well as to complete the inoculation of those 55 years and above.The Health Ministry is banking on the remaining 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca Covidshield that it purchased from the Serum Institute of India. That consignment was not delivered on 15 March as promised after an Indian court banned export of vaccines before demand at home is met. The next batch of Covishield vaccine under the COVAX initiative is also not expected before May. However, the current suspension of vaccinations in Europe, Thailand and other countries may ease the worldwide shortage somewhat. “We will go ahead with second doses as planned, but the third phase aimed at the age group 55-64 will depend on vaccine availability and as of now we don’t have dates on when they are arriving,” admits Shyam Raj Upreti, head of the Government Covid Vaccine Strategy told Nepali Times.The Chinese government, on the other hand, has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000, but China has insisted that Nepal send a plane to collect it from Beijing.The shortfall in supply and procurement challenges forced the Health Ministry to allow private companies to import vaccines, including the Covaxin manufactured by Bharat Biotech in India. “The private sector can help bridge the gap in procurement limitation as well as allow people with the means and the interest to get vaccinated, but all this must be monitored and regulated,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Teku Hospital.Average coverage was 73% of the eligible population in the first two phases, all of them with the Covishield AstraZeneca vaccine. However, media reports of the suspension of that vaccine in European countries this week due to fears of blood clot among some recipients may increase vaccine hesitancy in Nepal. The suspensions have baffled public health experts who warn that there is neither enough data to justify the decision, nor adequate evidence to blame blood clots on the vaccine. The fact that there have been no serious side effects in Nepal had increased the acceptance level of the vaccine in the public and among frontline health workers in Nepal. “The EU might have different standards from ours but it might be a good idea to monitor serious side effects,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa. “However, the vaccine has been safe in this part of the world, so its benefits far outweigh the risk.”Some experts think the suspension of the vaccine campaigns in Europe may actually be a blessing in disguise for Nepal, which is facing delays in shipments of Covishield it ordered as well as remaining doses under the COVAX initiative from the Serum Institute. That delay and the heftier price tag was blamed on a rise in global demand. So far, the government has only administered Covidshield in Nepal and health authorities here see no reason to discontinue the vaccine without a real causal link between AstraZeneca and the blood clots.“The EU decision to suspend AstraZeneca is very random and counterproductive, it was probably influenced by politics,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Medical Sciences. “There is evidence this vaccine is safe and protects us specifically from severe symptoms of Covid-19.”Meanwhile, reassured by the vaccination drive and a dramatic drop in infections, Nepalis have gone back to normal, and many have forgotten about precautions. With parts of India hit by a second wave with over 37,000 new cases and 171 additional deaths on Wednesday, experts have advised the Nepal government not to let up on communicating the need to mask up and avoid crowds. “Officials here have stopped testing and are focusing only on vaccinating but even those who have been inoculated must remember that they can still be carriers,” Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa told Nepali Times from Achham. “We have to continue to take safety precaution as if the pandemic is not over, which it is not.”

1.6 million vaccinated, 20 million to go

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd779c7e80680e08bc80jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>So far, 450,000 Nepalis have received the first dose of Covishield, reaching 85% of the target group in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">first phase of the country’s Covid vaccination drive</a>.Starting 7 March, 3.7 million Nepalis above 55 who make up 12% of the total population will get their shots against SARS-CoV-2. Teachers, students, bus drivers and other groups will also be included in the second phase.On the paper, Nepal looks like it is in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">better position with vaccination</a>, especially given that more than 100 countries <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/90-in-poor-countries-will-miss-covid-vaccinations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">have yet to receive</a> even a single dose.“We have to applaud the government for its effort in bringing the vaccine earlier than expected and for rolling it out efficiently,” says Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “Nepal will be among the first countries to take the vaccine to the majority of its population with the second phase in early March.”However, the vaccine campaign has been plagued with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hesitancy and denial</a>. Even doctors and nurses were reluctant to inoculate themselves, resulting in a  low uptake. Failure to communicate, allay concerns about side effects, and ensuring access in remote areas were the main roadblocks to better coverage.“The very fact that the vaccines arrived in Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">much earlier than we anticipated</a> and once it did, we had to use it on the fly with the pandemic still going on, leaving us without a proper communication strategy,” admits Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Health Sciences.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covishield</a>, developed by AstraZeneca Oxford University and manufactured by the Serum Institute of India is being used in the UK, the EU, India with Australia starting their vaccination soon. With the efficacy ranging from 70-80%, 0.5ml of 2 doses 4-12 weeks apart, the jab has been deemed safe with no severe reactions or any death.In the recent past, local governments used to deploy Tole Health Promoters (THP) in neighbourhoods before a vaccination drive for measles, polio and other infections to address the public’s safety concerns.Another effective communication tool would have been the use of social media platforms and mass media to increase awareness about the vaccine as well as promote its use. Elsewhere in the world, prime ministers and presidents being inoculated were being televised live. Celebrities took to the Internet to share their experience of vaccination.“Someone like Nirmal Purja would have been best to promote the campaign and increase the acceptance of the vaccine in the masses with his legions of followers,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital.Basnyat agrees that Purja with his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nims-purja-does-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">international mountaineering fame</a> and Gurkha commando background would have also bolstered Nepal’s vaccine diplomacy. “He could be our brand ambassador to take up our case to aid agencies given the UK’s stand on vaccine equity while also backing India’s interest to promote neighbourhood first policy with vaccines,” he added.The government has approved the second dose to be given anywhere between 8-12 weeks of the first one, prioritising vaccination of as many vulnerable individuals as possible before that.But the availability of the vaccine will be the main concern as we move on to the next stage of the campaign. With the 1 million dose Covishield <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">grant from India</a> in January, another 2 million that Nepal purchased this week from Serum Institute of India, 2.25 million (with the first 300,000 arriving first) under the COVAX initiative, and 500,000 doses of Sinopharm from China, the government has a stock of close to six million doses.  This means 3 million can be vaccinated soon.“The second phase is as challenging as it is important. But this is also the group likely to have a higher chance of reaction, so we need to be prepared locally to manage them,” says Shyam Raj Uprety, head of the government’s Covid vaccine strategy. “It is crucial to communicate different types of side-effects and explain that they signify that the vaccine is working.”Around the world, the total number of new coronavirus cases and fatalities is dropping. Although India has reported spikes in some states and Nepal will have to keep a close watch on New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Nepalis have most likely developed localised immunity.A Nepal Health Research Council study has revealed that over 45% of hospital staff had developed antibodies by December, adding to the view that we are nearing herd immunity.“Once we have vaccinated a larger risk population, even if there is a second wave, it is unlikely to impact much because the group who were getting seriously sick will be protected,” adds Dixit.But even with the vaccine, Nepalis will still have to continue precautions. There is still uncertainty about duration of immunity, and whether vaccinated people can spread the virus.Says Basnyat: “This has been a pandemic of misinformation, we have to negate that with public engagement. Good thing is that Nepal can draw inspiration from past successful vaccination drives and can become a model for others.”<h2>Everything you wanted to know about vaccines</h2>Recently Nepali Times spoke with three experts with frequently asked questions from readers regarding the Covid-19 vaccination drive in Nepal.Excerpts of interviews with Virologist Sher Bahadur Pun at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Shyam Raj Uprety, head of the Government Covid Vaccine Strategy and Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamic Nepal:<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd7b9c7e80680e08bc81jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1160" height="350">What are the precautions one should take before and after the vaccine?Sameer Mani Dixit: Covishield, the Covid vaccine we are using, is an intramuscular injection, 0.5ml in two doses 4-12 weeks apart. It is administered by a professional and after the jab, one will feel mild pain in the region.What’s the efficacy rate of the vaccine and how long does it work?Covishield has been used in the UK, EU, India and many other countries, Australia is getting ready to use it. It has passed phase 3 clinical trials with over 12,000 volunteers without any severe reactions or any death. The efficacy ranges from 70-80%.Once a person is vaccinated, there are antibodies that the body produces and then there are memory T and B cells. The lifespan of antibodies is about 3-6 months but we don’t know about the duration of the memory cells since the vaccine has just been developed. The assumption is that it will work from anywhere between 9-12 months but we will know for sure once people who have been vaccinated pass that stage.Do we have to get the same vaccine for the second dose?Ideally, the manufacturers of the vaccine suggest we take the same for both doses. But there are instances you may be able to take a second dose from a different company.Do people who have recovered from Covid-19 need to vaccinate?Sher Bahadur Pun: We don’t know exactly how long does the natural infection protect the body. The rough estimation is between 3-6 months. But it varies from one individual to another so it is recommended that people take the shot. Also, two doses provide longer protection.Can breastfeeding mothers take the vaccine?Manufacturers of Covishield have suggested pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers against taking this vaccine. But Nepal government recently said that those breastfeeding for six months or more could take it, but we don’t have concrete data yet so we don’t recommend it.How can people with vulnerable family members get them vaccinated?Shyam Raj Uprety: We identified health workers as the most vulnerable. We vaccinated them at their nearest convenient place. We will do the same for the next vulnerable group, take the vaccine to the communities.If someone is not on the priority list but still wants to get vaccinated, how can they get it? Can it be bought?It is unlikely for people who are not listed as the priority to get the shot. It is being administered for free for the priority group individuals and cannot be bought in the market. But after the most vulnerable are covered, the vaccine could be made available by the private sector.

Nepal fights infodemic to push vaccine

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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