<figure><img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccc99c7e80680e08bc40jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: NABIN BARAL / www.thethirdpole.net</figcaption></figure>Plans to build Nepal’s biggest hydropower project was been delayed by politics and compensation issues for 10 years, but is now held up because the Chinese contractor is incommunicado.The 263-m high dam on the Budi Gandaki River will be the world’s tenth tallest, and impound a reservoir 45km long displacing 50,000 people, to generate 1.200MW of electricity. But the $2.5 billion project is in doubt because of delays and doubts about its viability.The project, situated 60km northwest of Kathmandu, was supposed to be completed by 2022. It had been cancelled and revived several times by successive governments, but has been stuck for the past year because of the pandemic.The China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) was awarded the main construction contract in 2018, but has not shown up for the past year.  “We have repeatedly tried to communicate with the company, but it has not responded clearly. We cannot say whether they are in or out, it is between somewhere and nowhere,” said Gokarna Raj Panta at the Ministry of Water Resources, Energy and Irrigation in Kathmandu.‘Between somewhere and nowhere’ is also a fitting description of the lives of the people of the Budi Gandaki Valley whose homes, farms and livelihoods will be submerged by what will be Nepal’s largest reservoir.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F22pmtP1Q4M&amp;feature=youtu.beHowever, at the project office in Siurenitar near the proposed dam site there is frantic activity. Phones are ringing constantly, and staff are busy taking calls from those asking about their compensation claims.  “The first priority is land acquisition and we have already paid out Rs33 billion as compensation,” said Krishna Bahadur Karki who heads the project’s compensation and resettlement unit. Another Rs20 billion is earmarked for reimbursement for homes, livestock, trees and other assets.The government froze land dealings in 2013 along the valley, but in anticipation of jobs and economic activity new roads and towns have sprung up in a district tht has seen dramatic depopulation due to outmigration.Ghare Gurung runs a roadside metal workshop outlet 40km north of the dam site. He bought this small patch in Arkhet using money saved from working in Malaysia. He got Rs120,000 compensation for it.“Now they have been saying that a 10% depreciation cost would be applied for our infrastructure. If it happens, then I need to pay them instead of receiving money,” he said.Besides submergence of the main valley, the reservoir will put another 22km of land along the Aankhu Khola tributary under water.   <img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccccc9c7e80680e08bc41jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd19c7e80680e08bc42jpeg.jpg" alt="">Gyanu Maya Shrestha sells snacks from a small stall by the Aankhu Khola in Hepne of Dhading district, and is worried about her future.  The April 2015 earthquake destroyed her home and her animal shed, killing her buffaloes, oxen, and goats. Before the quake, officials from the project had assessed both structures. “After the earthquake, they inspected it again, and now say they will reduce the compensation,” says Shrestha.The response from project officials was that the pre-earthquake inspection was for the environmental impact assessment (EIA) report, not compensation. While many other quake-hit communities have built new houses, people along these two rivers have not. Krishna Majhi lives in unregistered land at Gumti village, 10km from the proposed dam. In 2017, the government had agreed to compensate structures on unregistered land. Till now, no payments have been made.Krishna uses part of his earthquake-damaged house as a kitchen but has spent five years living in a makeshift structure. “Even a small earthquake would now be enough to kill us, and we cannot dismantle it because we need to show it to the project for compensation,” he said. <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd49c7e80680e08bc43jpeg.jpg" alt="">Many promises were made to locals to persuade them to hand over their land, including of resettlement. They were asked to fill forms saying where they wanted to be resettled and what facilities they needed. “We were told that new villages will be built in the slopes above the reservoir we would be provided all facilities. But we have heard nothing since, all these years they tricked us,” said Sushil Dharel, from Khahare on the Ankhu Khola.Back at the compensation office, Karki says he can understand the frustration of the people, but adds, “The compensation amount is many times higher than the government rates, and there are rules. There are also people who have received millions in compensation and bought houses in Kathmandu.”Indeed, while some have done well from compensation payouts, the majority are from poorer communities without political clout or access. They resent the way the authorities downplay their problems.“Our field is irrigable, there is a market nearby and we can produce three crops a year. I can’t buy a piece of land in the city with our project compensation, how do I make a living there?” asks Pampha Khadka from Khahare, bursting into tears.  Government officials in Kathmandu do not have any clearer answers on resettlement, but say the details need to be ironed out.“We have drafted a resettlement policy, but there isn’t clarity on the modality of project implementation. Unless it is finalised, resettlement is not possible,” said Gokarna Raj Panta at Nepal’s Ministry of Water Resources, Energyand Irrigation.Botched resettlement policies are not new in projects in Nepal. And in Budi Gandaki, too, there are problems. Some families have spent the money they got on parties, which means they will be homeless and landless if not resettled. Many have used payouts to meet their daily needs or pay debt, buy motorbikes or educate and marry off their children.“I received about Rs100,000 for a piece of land. I spent Rs10,000 on my grandchildren and sent Rs 80,000 to my daughter in Kathmandu for her studies,” said Purna Bahadur Ale Magar from Arkhet.According to the <a href="https://bghep.gov.np/images/category/EIA-Final-Report-2016.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://bghep.gov.np/images/category/EIA-Final-Report-2016.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEZ6Lul1s1B_1d91EBJUQE6RtCeUA">environmental impact assessment</a>, the reservoir will submerge 2,400 hectares of forests with 3.5 million trees of 38 species. The forests are home to 19 mammal species, 9 reptiles and 54 birds. They include 15 protected species, and there are five fish species on the IUCN red list, whose habitat will disrupted.  There has not been much interest from environmental activists and civil society groups in Nepal.  “There was interest in the 1990s about the social and environmental costs of large hydro projects, but Budi Gandaki shows that there is no concern anymore,” says  water resource expert Ajaya Dixit.  There is also cultural impact. Much of life in rural Nepal revolves around rivers, which are considered holy. The Budi Gandaki reservoir will submerge 44  cremation sites, 74 religious and 29 places of historic and cultural importance.   <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd89c7e80680e08bc44jpeg.jpg" alt="">“Even if you raise genuine and serious concern, you are tagged as being anti-development. I think this has helped to instill fear at all levels and civil society has fallen prey to it,” he added.The project will also undermine the region’s achievements in forest conservation. Some 1,500 hectares of community forests managed by 62 communities will be impacted bny the reservoir. The Pashupati Community Forest in Majhitar is one of them, where locals are cutting trees before the waters start rising.About 200m above the riverbank, Suresh Shah pointed out freshly cut tree stumps. “When I try to stop them, they say why do you care about these trees, we have lost everything,” he said. “Feelings of ownership had helped conserve the forest, but that is gone now.”  Karki, the project office manager, was unable to answer any questions on environmental issues, and his engineer was equally at a loss. “This is an issue which will be dealt with when construction starts. We have not thought about it and have not been advised on how to deal with it,” Karki said.After the deadly flood on the Alkananda River in India this month that destroyed two hydro power projects and killed at least 100 people, concerns about the impact of the climate crisis also loom large. The Budi Gandaki watershed drains the eastern flanks of Himalchuli and Manaslu and the Ganesh Mssif to the east, which has many glacial lakes in danger of bursting.Experts say it is very risky to build such a large and expensive projects directly downstream from mountains that are melting rapidly due to the climate emergency.In Kathmandu, three successive governments in the last three years have made as many decisions to award or scrap the contract with China Gezhouba Group Corporation. After pre-feasibility study in 1984, the project was sidelined till 2006, when it was opened to international bidders. No expressions of interest were received.It was next revived in 2011, when Nepal’s power outages exceeded 12 hours per day. Once again, international companies showed no interest, so the government opted to make Budi Gandaki into a ‘national pride project’ – a development priority with a bigger budget from domestic resources.In 2016, the Belgian multinational <a href="https://tractebel-engie.com/en/the-history-of-tractebel" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://tractebel-engie.com/en/the-history-of-tractebel&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6UKIRE1xX87FdmFnCa5KUg3vVAw">Tractebel</a> completed a detailed design. The project was set to move ahead with local funds and management when China entered the picture in 2017.A few days before leaving office, the Maoist party Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s cabinet awarded the project to China Gezhouba Group Corporation, without any bidding.In November 2017, the incoming Nepali Congress-led government promptly scrapped the contract stating irregularities and lack of transparency. A court action followed. Nepal got another new government four months later, and K P Oli became prime minister who returned the project to China Gezhouba in September 2018.Now the problem is that China Gezhouba is showing little interest and failing to respond to Nepali government requests for information.“It's not that Chinese are less interested now. They are just waiting for a favourable time as there is political chaos in the country,”said Nepali hydro-economist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327182585_Power_Paradox_Growth_of_the_Hydro_Sector_in_Nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327182585_Power_Paradox_Growth_of_the_Hydro_Sector_in_Nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFUZgWsCJNS8MFxLk3h6ib6tsjtCw">Ratna Sansar Shrestha.</a> In his view, China’s interest in Nepali hydro projects is limited to making money from construction contracts. “India has more interest in Nepal's water as it depends on water that flows from the mountains for irrigating vast swathes of land in the Gangetic plains,” Shrestha explained.   <img width="1778" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccdb9c7e80680e08bc45jpeg.jpg" alt="">Geopolitical friction The Budi Gandaki feeds into the Gandaki, one of Nepal’s four main rivers. It flows into India’s Bihar state and eventually empties into the Ganges.  Nepal and India signed the 1959 <a href="https://www.moewri.gov.np/storage/listies/May2020/aggrement-on-nepal-and-india-gandak-river-1959.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.moewri.gov.np/storage/listies/May2020/aggrement-on-nepal-and-india-gandak-river-1959.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFnWToLZflbwMZONfOd4NCCvNXDzA">Gandak Treaty</a>, which bars Nepal from upstream activities that would impact water flow in Bihar, where millions of hectares of farmland depend on waters from the Gandak (as Gandaki is known in India). However, China’s growing influence in Nepal as the largest provider of foreign direct investment could lead to geopolitical friction, according to a <a href="https://asiafoundation.org/2018/08/15/the-price-of-power-the-political-economy-of-electricity-trade-and-hydropower-in-eastern-south-asia/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://asiafoundation.org/2018/08/15/the-price-of-power-the-political-economy-of-electricity-trade-and-hydropower-in-eastern-south-asia/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGJXMeATWXJ7aUlNj-_Ex9ogLOAGw">2018 report by the Asia Society</a>. Chinese firms recently built two other hydro projects in Nepal at Upper Marsyangdi A and Upper Madi, with a combined capacity of 75 MW. But both are run-of-the-river schemes, unlike Budi Gandaki which would be a gigantic reservoir. Indian state owned and private firms have not built a power project in Nepal since the mid-1980s, although one is involved in large projects on the Arun River. However, India is promoting cross-border trade in electricity as part of the nascent BBNI (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) regional sub-group in its sphere of influence. Both Nepal and Bhutan have objected to the Indian power ministry’s statement in December 2016 that electricity was a ‘strategic commodity’ so non-BBNI foreign powers could not be involved in the supply chain.    Shrestha says India is not concerned about China’s involvement in the Budi Gandaki project, whose power is solely for domestic use, and it views the reservoir positively.  “In general, India is not happy with Chinese companies being involved in Nepal's hydropower, but in Budi Gandaki they are more than happy as India would get lean-season augmented flow for free,” he added.   India had said it was not interested in investing in or building the Budi Gandaki project, and withdrew from bilateral talks in the late 90s. Another water expert, Dipak Gyawali says that the irrigation aspect has been completely ignored in designing Budi Gandaki.   Gyawali headed a review committee formed by the government to look at the design, and says: “About 100,000 hectares of land in Nawalparasi and Chitwan districts downstream could have benefitted in Nepal. The water that flows in dry months from the reservoir is not flowing water, it's produced by submerging our land and through our investment. If India uses this water then we should get financial returns.” Another problem Gyawali sees in this project is that it is located close to the epicenter of the 2015 earthquake and may not be able to withstand a future megaquake. “For a seismically active region like Nepal, rock filled dams are better than concrete double arch dams as proposed on the design,” he said. But Laxmi Devkota, the former Chair of the Budi Gandaki Development Committee, claimed that it has been designed with a serious consideration for earthquake impacts and is within international seismic resistance parameters. The many delays risk making the Budi Gandaki project financially unviable. Costs are plummeting for other renewables, such as solar and wind power, and emerging hydrogen energy technology. According to the Asia Foundation <a href="https://asiafoundation.org/publication/the-price-of-power/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://asiafoundation.org/publication/the-price-of-power/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHA-718IXF7L4V8YODxQxVtc-crlA"> report</a>, solar electricity tariffs in Rajasthan, India, fell from more than 19 cents per unit in 2010 to 3.6 cents, and wind energy was  around 3.7 cents. Nepal’s hydropower costs 7 cents per unit to produce. India, which is Nepal’s expected energy export market, is ramping up renewable energy capacity fast with 37 gigawatts of solar and 38 gigawatts in wind by 2020. However, Budi Gandaki’s output is planned for domestic use so need not compete directly in the regional market. Nonetheless, the technical costs are making its value questionable, even for domestic use. “If we can develop this project within five years then we will definitely save some money, but if it is the next 20 years then it would be a hotpot of corruption for politicians and bureaucrats. It looks like this project is losing its technical strength in terms of cost already,” said Dipendra Bhattarai, an energy expert. <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/2019/04/09/nepals-hydropower/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thethirdpole.net/2019/04/09/nepals-hydropower/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8pzipmFIljVwAHCiTObtvXl5OUg">Who will buy Nepal’s hydropower?</a> Finally, the daily power cuts that drove Nepal's policymakers to revive the project in 2011 have ceased.  Nepal doubled its electricity production from 700MW in 2010 to 1400 MW in 2014. Another 700MW is likely to be added in the next couple of years. However, Nepal has been importing about 600 megawatts from India in the dry, winter months (November to April) to meet peak demand as the smaller run-of-the-river projects struggle when water levels are low-- one motivation to build a big reservoir.  The Budi Gandaki hydropower plant should have been completed by 2022. In 2015, the project cost was estimated at 2.5 billion— more than one fourth of Nepal’s total budget that year. Says Laxmi Devkota of the project: “We have already lost about half a billion dollars in the last four years if we consider just 10% inflation rate. Another one and half billion dollars could have been gained by selling electricity in the four years that were delayed. We are already on loss at total project cost amount.”  The story was first published on <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/">The Third Pole</a>. Accompanying video by Nabin Baral.

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Nepal’s mega-dam is a mirage

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21e89c7e80680e041761jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower (900 MW) in Daab in Dailekh district. Indian company GMR is in final stage to start construction of the project. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Dal Bahadur Shahi lives in Tuinkuna, in Dailekh district of western Nepal. This is the proposed site for Nepal’s largest hydropower project, the 900 megawatt (MW) <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6689#.XDSJuFUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Upper Karnali</a><a href="http://www.ibn.gov.np/project/upper-karnali-hep">.</a> He was in his 50s when he first heard that electricity would be produced from the river he used to cross it several times a day. “My arms could conquer the strongest waves of the river back then, but now I don’t dare to go near it,” he said. “Even if the project is built, I won’t be able to see it. But I hope that our sacrifice of leaving this place for the sake of the nation will not be forgotten.” Read also: Part 1: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a>Part 3: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a>Part 4: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dancing with the river</a> Part 5: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait</a> <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21eb9c7e80680e041762jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Dal Bahadur Shahi in Twinkuna in Dailekh district in the bank of Karnali river where the biggest hydropower is about to kick off. Shahi's family will be displaced once the dam construction starts. Photo: NABIN BARALIn the late 1990s, when the first project survey began, an engineer advised Dal Bahadur to buy more land so that he would receive compensation when the dam was built. But Shahi did not heed the advice, he did not have enough money anyway. There have been numerous surveys after that, but the locals were unaware of the wider water and electricity politics at play. In 2008 an Indian company, <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://www.gmrgroup.in/hand-shake.aspx">GMR</a> got the deal to carry out a detailed study, but a decade later the project is yet to take off. The company signed the project development agreement four years ago but has not yet managed to attract investors. “I don’t think this company has money. It looks like it will sell the license at higher price to another company and it will be delayed,” says another resident, Lokendra Rawat, who left his village in 2008 when the company set up a project office. “I came here to operate a hotel as the construction work would bring a lot of people. But it looks like I will be too old when it will be implemented,” he smiled. <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21ee9c7e80680e041763jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1061">Map: STEFANO WROBLESKIRecently the company said it had provided compensation for the 250 families whose land will be submerged, but only a few people have received it. Dal Bahadur’s two sons were lucky to get compensation a few months ago. The company has now halted the compensation process and no one knows when it will resume. There is talk that the company is only paying compensation to influential and politically powerful people. The Upper Karnali has always been a high profile political project. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, and Nepal’s then Prime Minister Sushil Koirala signed a deal for the project during Modi’s visit to Nepal in 2014. But investors have not been convinced and it is unclear who will buy the electricity. The project is designed to generate power for export to India, but there is no power purchase agreement. Frustrated by the lack of progress in India, last year the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Bangladesh, which could buy the electricity. Later in August this year Nepal signed a <a href="http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2018-08-11/nepal-bangladesh-sign-power-cooperation-deal.html">cooperation agreement</a> with Bangladesh aimed at facilitating power trade. Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f09c7e80680e041764jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>In Rabalde, power house site of Upper Karnali hydro project is seen through fish net hung in Roshan Buda'a home in Accham. Zinc sheet roofed buildings in the field is the office of GMR company which is building the project. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Nepal needs permission from India to take electricity across India to Bangladesh so all three countries need to agree on a deal. But experts say it’s not easy given the complex geopolitics of the region. Even so, India recently indicated that it’s open to trilateral trade by amending its earlier cross border trade regulation.Some speculate that this move to ease the trade of electricity was only to help the Indian company GMR to secure financing for Upper Karnali. Nevertheless the amendment is also good news for Chinese and other companies who have been eyeing bigger projects in Nepal. The project on the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18119#.XDSEGFUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Karnali</a> Bend was first envisaged as a 240 MW project in the 1990s, but has grown in scale over the decades. GMR agreed to build a 900MW plant in 2008, but some technocrats and activists have blamed Nepal’s government for selling the project short. The feasibility study identified the possibility of developing a 4,180 MW project a little further upriver from where the current 900 MW project is planned. Whether this is really possible or not, given the fragile geology of the region, is another matter.“Why was the best and cheapest project to build handed over to a foreign company who will export the energy, while we have a shortage of power? It should be developed for us,” said Ratan Bhandari, a water rights activist from the region. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f39c7e80680e041765jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A kayaker paddles in the Karnali River in Accham district of Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The current project will still be the biggest hydropower project in Nepal worth $1.5 billion. The Upper Karnali has rare <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/what-in-it-for-us,3994" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hydropower</a> potential, where water can be pushed through a 2.5 km tunnel over a drop of 130 metres, creating a huge generating capacity. This project is often called ‘jewel in the crown’ of Nepal’s hydropower. “Our jewel has been sold at the rate of coal,” says Ratna Sansar Shrestha, a hydro-economist. Nepal’s move towards big dams has come at a time when scientists warn that more extreme weather events like floods and landslides will increase in the already fragile mountains in the region. “The changing probabilities and magnitudes of extreme events can place additional risk on power generation infrastructure (dams and hydropower plants) as well as secondary infrastructure (roads and transmission lines). Further, hazards associated with shrinking glaciers, such as glacial lake outburst floods, can jeopardise large infrastructure investment,” says a <a href="http://lib.icimod.org/record/32006/files/StatKraft_Review_final.pdf">report</a> by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. A <a href="http://lib.icimod.org/record/29591">study</a> in 2014 also revealed that Nepal’s glaciers have shrunk by 24% and its ice reserves by 29% over the past three decades.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f69c7e80680e041766jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Mount Kailash in Tibet. Four large rivers of Asia originate from four sides of Mount Kailash-- the Brahmaputra (called Yarlung-Tsangpo) from the east, the Karnali from the south, the Sutlej from the west and the Indus from the north. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>However, developers say that current knowledge about impacts of climate change in hydropower is inadequate and does not help better planning. While reports say that the hydropower projects will be impacted, they lack the details as to what degree, and what precisely to take into consideration, says Kumar Pandey of the <a href="http://www.ippan.org.np/page/ippan-committee/">Independent Power Producers Association Nepal</a> (IPPAN). “Investors need accurate information with evidence at micro scale so that they can use it while developing the project so there is need of specific knowledge about the impacts,” adds Pandey.  There are other dangers. Seismologists like Roger Bilham of the University of Coloradio say that a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mega earthquake is long overdue</a> in western Nepal. “There are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming megaquake in western Nepal,” <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he told Nepali Times</a>. If built, the project will be the first hydropower plant on the Karnali, the country’s longest river which originates near Mount Kailash in Tibet and becomes Ghaghara in India before it meets the Ganga at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.  Megh Ale, team leader of the Karnali expedition, believes the main stream of the Karnali should be left free-flowing, “We can bring millions of tourists here while other tributaries could be used for electricity,” he says (see below). Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/rivers-fighting-back,993" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The rivers are fighting back</a>, Megh Alehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns7jytSwpngBesides tourism, hydropower development would also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/project-dragonfly/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endanger aquatic species</a>. “Aquatic life has been threatened by hydropower across the country and if it continues many species will go extinct,” says Deep Narayan Shah, a researcher from Nepal’s Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Environmental Science. Nepal’s hydropower policy has a mandatory provision for developers to maintain 10% flow of water downstream around the year, but this has not been implemented and monitored. Chief minister of Karnali Province Mahendra Bahadur Shahi says there has to be greater understanding about river ecosystems and suffering of people, who are critically dependent on the river and its resources, like fish. “We may revisit the agreement done with GMR and I have told them that it won’t go ahead as agreed,” he says as he joined the expedition on the banks of Karnali recently. However a few weeks later Shahi told journalists that he was willing to waive taxes for the developers, adding that without large hydroelectric projects, Karnali Province would remain poor.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1a6JHJufKgIt is common practice for companies to hold licences for years and then sell them to another company. Late last year, GMR (the same company that holds the licence for Upper Karnali) pulled out of the 600MW Upper Marsyangdi project after holding the licence for years.  A consortium of Nepali and Chinese investors bought shares from GMR just as work was due to start. The parliamentary committee of Nepal has <a href="http://setopati.net/market/134280">formed a probe committee</a> to investigate further.China is becoming a new but important player in Nepal’s energy politics, dominated by India for decades. There are two big projects in pipeline, the $2.5 billion <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/08/06/building-budhigandaki/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Budi Gandaki</a> and the $1.8 billion West Seti – both reservoir projects, and both controversial. Earlier last year, the Nepal government announced that the 750 MW <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19084#.XDSL01UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">West Seti project</a>, on one of the tributaries of the Karnali in western Nepal, would be built by Nepali firms while the license of the project had already been given to China's Three Gorges Company (CTGC). Negotiations then failed, resulting in the Chinese withdrawing from the project.The 1,200MW Budhi Gandaki in central Nepal has also had a series of setbacks as the Nepal government awarded the project to China’s Ghezhuoba firm, only to scrap it a year later, and then re-awarding the contract to the same company.This has increased doubts among locals that Karnali will ever be built. “The most productive time of my life has gone waiting for this project to kick off,” says Bal Bahadur Shahi at Ramaghat, 3km downstream from the project site. Frustration is growing and locals are in a mood to fight back. Says Shahi: “We will wait at least for one more year. If the project is still not implemented, we will ask the government to take it over.” The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent installments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/ball-in-balen-s-court">Nepal’s newly-installed Prime Minister Balendra Shah</a> unveiled his Council of Ministers after taking the oath of office on Friday in Kathmandu.&nbsp; Besides Nepal's pre-existing problems, his team will immediately have to deal with the fallout of the West Asia conflict to satisfy an electorate impatient for change. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) won a majority in the 5 March election and capped the Cabinet size at 15. Shah, a structural engineer and musician, himself has taken charge of the Defence and Industry Ministries. There has been an attempt to make the Cabinet inclusive with women in five of the new portfolios.&nbsp; After much negotiation, the powerful Home Ministry, a bone of contention between Shah and RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane, has gone to Sudan Gurung, a hitherto little-known figure who <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/who-or-what-is-hami-nepal">rose to prominence after the September GenZ protest</a> and won the election from Gorkha-2.&nbsp; Gurung will be in charge of Nepal’s internal security apparatus and maintaining law and order. And with Gurung, a close ally of the Prime Minister, in charge, some note the Home Ministry will be a hook for Shah if Lamichhane, with his share of controversies, steps out line.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_c7725ea5fb9ffbf96df25a7b3122520b7ae3ee10548aed3f37781a7e5440e51a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260327090324_c7725ea5fb9ffbf96df25a7b3122520b7ae3ee10548aed3f37781a7e5440e51a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Notable RSP leaders, including vice-chair DP Aryal, were said to have been vying for the portfolio.&nbsp; Gurung is the founder of the non-profit Hami Nepal, which worked primarily in earthquake relief in 2015, and emerged onto the national stage during negotiations to appoint Sushila Karki as interim PM after the unrest. He was also involved in key negotiations that cemented Balendra Shah and Rabi Lamichhane’s political partnership in the runup to the election.&nbsp; Most new Cabinet members are not just first-time ministers, but are also freshmen lawmakers. Many are experts in their fields. Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle is an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">economist </a>with degrees from the London School of Economics and Harvard, and was previously Chief Economic Advisor at the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, and also served in Nepal’s National Planning Commission.&nbsp; Previously a member of Nepali Congress, Wagle exited the party in 2023 following differences with top leadership, and joined the RSP. Wagle won a by-election from Tanahu-1 in 2023 and won again from the same constituency in this month’s election.&nbsp; Shishir Khanal, who heads RSP’s foreign affairs department, has been appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. &nbsp;Khanal is co-founder of Teach For Nepal, was briefly Education Minister when the RSP was part of the the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led coalition government in 2023.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_b1a670bac12e2bf4df955134f58c8de7718d48f6be4e1f2df7c7c52f82e36e42.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260327090324_b1a670bac12e2bf4df955134f58c8de7718d48f6be4e1f2df7c7c52f82e36e42" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Law Minister Sobita Gautam is a lawyer by profession and worked in governance and public policy before she was elected as the youngest MP in the 2022 election.&nbsp; Health Minister Nisha Mehta is a nurse and became a lawmaker under the Proportional Representation system in this election which swept the RSP to power with a near two-third majority.&nbsp; Education Minister Sasmit Pokharel, a first-time MP elected from Kathmandu-5, served as an aide to Balendra Shah when he was mayor of Kathmandu and a was member of the KMC City Planning Commission.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_5ed794d7bf0cac2844277521810225c4355746b9c3f7369f70cacc878c94641f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260327090324_5ed794d7bf0cac2844277521810225c4355746b9c3f7369f70cacc878c94641f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Biraj Bhakta Shrestha is Energy Minister, and also served as the Minister for Youth and Sports in the Dahal-led coalition government in 2024. Before joining RSP, Shrestha was elected to the Bagmati Provincial Assembly in the 2017 elections representing the r<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/rsp-s-activist-dna">eformist Bibeksheel Sajha Party</a>. He will immediately face the challenge of addressing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rough-road-ahead-for-new-nepal-rulers">impact of the West Asia war,</a> including rising petroleum prices and a shortage of cooking gas. Sita Badi, who was elected through the PR system, is Minister for Women, Children and Senior Citizens. She was born and brought up in the underserved and marginalised Badi community in Surkhet and has been advocating for the rights and welfare of women, children, and minority communities. Other ministers include RSP spokesperson Pratibha Rawal as Minister for Federal Affairs and General Administration as well as Land Management, and Gita Chaudhary as Minister for Agriculture, Sunil Lamsal is Physical Infrastrucutre, Transport, and Urban Development Minister, Khadka Raj (Ganesh) Paudel as Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister. Dipak Sah is the Labour and Employment Minister, and Bikram Timilsina is Communication Minister.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_b67c2d199d4897031583a5b7ec7ce43e88771167696e6161665eeb5fca25d3ed.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260327090324_b67c2d199d4897031583a5b7ec7ce43e88771167696e6161665eeb5fca25d3ed" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Meanwhile, RSP vice-chair DP Aryal, who many thought would be home minister because of his proximity with Rabi Lamichhane has been proposed as Speaker of the House.&nbsp; Aryal previously served two brief stints as the Minister of Labour when RSP was part of the RSP’s coalition governments in 2023 and 2024. As minister Aryal came <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/skeletons-in-the-cabinet-k5x6py1v">under scrutiny </a>for his involvement in an employment agency that was investigated for illegal acquisition of wealth in 2020. If appointed House Speaker, Aryal will be expected to play a neutral and non-partisan role in Parliamentary affairs. &nbsp; With the full Cabinet announced on Friday, Prime Minister Shah and his team now have their work cut out for them. &nbsp;The government’s first priority will be ensuring the safety and long-term security of the almost two million <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrant-workers-in-wartime">Nepalis living and working in the Gulf</a> amid the ongoing conflict in the region, and taking steps to cushion Nepal’s economy from the Israel-US war on Iran. The new leaders will also be tasked with implementing the findings of the Karki Commission report on the September violence that paved the way for the election and the rise of the RSP. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> <figcaption>Snapshots from PM Balen Shah's swearing-in ceremony</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_8646d490883154f696bcdc6e2375084419f2eefaaf0ef0c7e2710aa6e2d94a8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20260327090324_8646d490883154f696bcdc6e2375084419f2eefaaf0ef0c7e2710aa6e2d94a8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_89d17d6584593be1eb23eb1d4872c3b7c600e1620f3aca48dbff4838364a1e3c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20260327090324_89d17d6584593be1eb23eb1d4872c3b7c600e1620f3aca48dbff4838364a1e3c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;Full list of ministers: Prime Minsiter: Balendra Shah Home Minister: Sudan Gurung Finance Minister: Swarnim Wagle Foreign Affairs Minister: Shishir Khanal Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Ministry: Sobita Gautam Energy, Water and Irrigation Minister: Biraj Bhakta Shrestha Education Minister: Sasmit Pokharel Physical Infrastrucutre, Transport, and Urban Development Minister: Sunil Lamsal Communication and Information Ministry: Bikram Timilsina General Administration Minister: Pratibha Rawal Women, Children and Senior Citizens Minister: Sita Badi Health and Population Minister: Nisha Mehta Agriculture Minister: Gita Chaudhary Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister: Khadka Raj (Ganesh) Paudel&nbsp; Labour Minister: Dipak Sah

Nepal swears in new Cabinet

Rivers have been the lifelines of civilisations with their dynamic ecosystems providing vital services for human survival and ecological balance through the ages.&nbsp; But accelerating anthropocentric footprints are causing severe, and often irreversible, damage to river systems across the world, including those across High Asia, a region that sustains nearly a fourth of the global population downstream. An example is the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-the-bagmati-civilisation-is-becoming-uncivilised" target="_blank">Bagmati River</a> that courses through Kathmandu, crosses the Himalayan foothills to join the Ganga in India. A river that once shaped the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/when-it-comes-to-water-pollution,3196" target="_blank">Kathmandu Valley Civilisation </a>is now a polluted and biologically dead water body constricted by urban sprawl, choked by construction debris, chemical waste and untreated sewage.&nbsp; The loss of a sacred river is tragic enough, but its hazards related to health, life and livelihoods are not limited to the Valley, nor is its enormity fully gauged by the metrics of fatality, income loss, flood return periods, runoffs, embankment failure.&nbsp; It is a systemic collapse of ecological integrity, socio-economic stability and cultural heritage, affecting its downstream users as well. The death of Bagmati is a peril for a population size way bigger than circa 5 million residents of Kathmandu Valley. The degradation started in the 1980s and has accelerated. Why has not enough been done to save this iconic river that runs through Nepal’s capital?&nbsp; The Bagmati River Basin Improvement Project (BRBIP) was designed to make headway in restoring the river with a sewage treatment plant, dams for storing water to support dry-season runoff, recharge groundwater, creation of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/resurrecting-bagmati-the-river" target="_blank">green biodiversity corridors</a> along the river bank to also serve as recreation areas, reduce the urban heat island effect, and also provide cultural continuity. The project also envisages collection of hydrological data for managing Bagmati multipurposewater systems and providing flood forecasts and early warnings aimed at protecting lives and property, among other things. Most importantly, the project takes the integrated water resource management approach, which, in principle, is a holistic and collaborative way of managing all elements of the water cycle to ensure water security, public and environmental health and amenity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260329040336_9605240fa8c7d649ce49fbe43565130e3187e979338ccf959c4e9b8c581b7a4c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260329040336_9605240fa8c7d649ce49fbe43565130e3187e979338ccf959c4e9b8c581b7a4c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2126" height="1577" loading="lazy" alt="Bagmati NT"> </figure>  This should pave the way for managing a river as a connected ecological, social, and economic system by enabling coordination across agencies and disciplines, stimulating technological innovation and financial investment. The success of this approach depends on long-term political will and commitment that transcend political cycles, but also needs strong community and civil society in defining issues and proposing solutions, creating and sharing knowledge, taking independent action to inform practice, monitoring and evaluating policies, and participating in public decision-making. Civil society, especially, in making the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/encounter-with-bagmati-river" target="_blank">revival of the Bagmati River</a> a pressing governance issue. The Bagmati Action Plan 2009, a precursor to the BRBIP, was designed in response to lawsuits filed in 2000 and 2004 by an independent legal practitioner of Kathmandu against waste dumping in the river.&nbsp; It took him almost two decades of legal battle for Nepal’s Supreme Court to pass orders for mandatory septic tanks in all homes in Kathmandu Valley, relocation of squatters from Bagmati river banks to government-built houses, and embargo on dumping and burying garbage on the banks of the river and its tributaries. Despite court orders, however, actual results have been unsatisfactory. Restoration of Bagmati barely made it to any political debate or electoral manifesto this time. Treatment plants have not been operational for years, yet no one is held accountable. The population ignores waste segregation or single-use plastic rules to check littering.&nbsp; The current condition of the river therefore seems to have more to do with the lack of public awareness and behaviour change than the failure of various master plans. Why does the deep danger of a dead river fail to arouse widespread civil society concern, let alone action? The apathy is perhaps underlined by an innately anthropocentric understanding of the river as a mere resource to be exploited, rather than the backbone of existence.&nbsp; Such a paradigm shift is possible when river or river systems are understood to be necessary for &nbsp;a harmonious coexistence with human populations. The more pertinent question is not whether a dead river can be restored because there are many examples from around the world where that has been successfully achieved. It is whether we choose to restore our rivers for intergenerational equity. This would require a holistic perspective and political will to revive reverence for a river system so that its symbiotic relationship with human settlements can be restored. Roshni Gurung is Research Assistant, River Basins at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

A lifeline becomes liability

On Friday, Balendra Shah is taking his oath of office as Nepal's prime minister in a capital city of which he was a mayor till six months ago.
At 35, he will be among Nepal’s youngest prime ministers. His reticence and reclusiveness have reinforced his brand as a doer rather than a talker. This was a persona he cultivated as mayor of someone who cleaned up the city by managing garbage. But he also chased off sidewalk vendors in an effort to ‘beautify’ the city.&nbsp;
After being elected, Shah did not attend RSP events in official capacity, and he was absent at an MP orientation last week.&nbsp;
His refusal to engage with the press, and even stopping to post on social media, have added to the air of reclusiveness. But as prime minister, he may have to communicate more even if it just to stop conspiracy theories and intrigue.&nbsp;
The people he will now represent would like to know, and have a right to know, what he is up to. Otherwise the feeling will grow that Nepal is entering uncharted territory. Governance, the economy and investment do not like uncertainty.
Political scientist Pyakuryal notes that calling Balen a 'man of few words' may serve as a useful epithet if he governs with quiet efficiency rather than fanfare. "But as Prime Minister, he must engage the nation’s will, not simply manage from above," she says.
She adds: "The real test lies in his choice of style: will he lead exclusively, keeping decisions close, or inclusively, opening space for dialogue and shared ownership of governance?"
Nepal's newly-elected lawmakers were sworn in on Thursday. And once sworn in as PM on Friday, Balendra Shah is set to appoint a ‘minimalist’ Cabinet. Although the Constitution caps the size of the Council of Ministers at 25, the party has decided to stick to maximum 18 and not split ministries to accommodate loyalists as was done in the past.&nbsp;
&nbsp;"The Cabinet must support the leadership of the Prime Minister while ensuring accountability to the Parliament,” notes political scientist Sucheta Pyakuryal. “But the questions that come to mind are: will the RSP MPs readily submit to Balen’s leadership and is Balen’s absence from the party’s official events an unwillingness or hesitation to submit to the party?”
Prime Minister Sushila Karki and her ministers ended their interim tenures this week, and she was lauded for upholding her commitment to hold a free, fair and peaceful election. But her image was tarnished for her reluctance to release the investigation report on the September violence, as well as recommending her Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal for a National Assembly seat, and her personal secretary to the National Trust for Nature Conservation. President Ram Chandra Poudel has put Aryal’s nomination on hold. &nbsp;
The Investigation Commission report leaked on Wednesday said the state failed to stop the firing on protestors by Police on 8 September and blamed the Army for not preventing the arson next day. It recommended the prosecution of prime minister KP Oli, home minister Ramesh Lekhak, and Police chief Chandra Kuber Khapung.
Notable names said to be in consideration for the Cabinet include many who are experts in their fields, and RSP wants a young lawmaker as Speaker. The new government will plunge headlong into the economic fallout of the West Asia war.
RSP, with its near two-third majority, does not have to placate any coalition partner, so Nepal is at long last expected to have a stable government after 35 years. Despite hopes that there will not be the usual horse-trading this time, there is tension between supporters of RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane and Balendra Shah. The two have been negotiating in hotel rooms for Cabinet posts for loyalists.&nbsp;
Shah’s larger-than-life online persona and nationwide appeal delivered the RSP its overwhelming electoral victory this month, and this makes the party’s core leadership beholden to him. To what extent is Shah willing to meet Lamichhane’s demands is the critical question, and we will know the answer by this weekend.
Says Pyakuryal: “Because this election showcased personality politics rather than the regular party politics, the dangers of ego-clashes, power-tussles and intraparty realpolitik become very real and this kind of equation can greatly hamper the spirit of democracy, representation and collective good."

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 <figcaption>Animation: ANUP TAMU</figcaption>
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Ball in Balen’s court

Nepal’s new government hit the ground running with the arrests of former Prime Minister K P Oli and home Minister Ramesh Lekhak early Saturday morning.&nbsp;
Their dramatic detentions followed an inquiry commission report recommending that Lekhak, Oli, and former Police chief Chandra Kuber Khapung be investigated and prosecuted for negligence in failing to stop the killing of 19 young protesters by security forces during the protests on 8 September.&nbsp;
Interim PM Sushila Karki’s government faced considerable criticism from GenZ activists at the end of her 7-month tenure for failing to release the report and hold the previous UML-NC coalition to account.&nbsp;
Karki had left any decision on the report’s findings to new RSP government, but her government released it after the content was leaked earlier this week, a day before Nepal’s newly elected lawmakers took their oath of office.
By making the arrests of Oli and Lekhak as its first order of business, the new government, and especially Home Minister Sudan Gurung and Prime Minister Balendra Shah, have tried to show that they are decisive and mean business.&nbsp;
It has been hailed by many as signalling that Nepal’s new and young leadership will back up its pledges with action. However, others including the UML and some constitutional experts, say that the arrests have not followed legal procedures. The UML has mobilised its affiliated groups to start nationwide street protests.&nbsp;
The main divide seems to be over the perception that the new government is only interested in justice for the perpetrators of the 8 September Parliament massacre, and not against those who organised arson and vandalism of government buildings, homes of politicians, businesses and the media the next day.&nbsp;
While some celebrate what they see as the beginning of justice for the victims and survivors of the September violence, political analysts and legal experts express alarm over a lack of adherence to the rule of law.&nbsp;
K P Oli has a lot of experience being behind bars. He was jailed a dozen times in 1970s by the Panchayat regime for his extreme left activism and then spent 14 years in prison between 1974-1988.
Critics argue that the former leaders were denied due process and label their arrest a “political vendetta."
RSP supporters had made similar arguments in October 2024 and April 2025 that the arrest of party chair Rabi Lamichhane over misappropriation of funds from numerous cooperatives were &nbsp;politically motivated.
‘What is happening is unacceptable,’ wrote former minister and diplomat Nilamber Acharya wrote on Saturday morning. ‘Such acts of revenge and crackdowns do not bode well.’
In response to accusations of the arrests being partisan and politically-motivated, Home Minister Sudan Gurung took to social media, saying that the new government is fulfilling its promises: ‘No one is above the law,’ he wrote. ‘This is not revenge, it is the beginning of justice. I believe now that the nation will now take a new direction.’
There is also concern the new leadership has jumped the gun to implement the findings of the inquiry commission, which has itself been criticised in some quarters for concentrating on the events of 8 September rather than investigating the perpetrators of the anarchy on 9 September.&nbsp;
The first meeting of the Council of Ministers made the immediate implementation of the GenZ Movement Inquiry Report its first priority.
But there are questions as to whether the execution of the report will be impartial. Home Minister Gurung will now dictate how the recommendations &nbsp;will be conducted, since he is himself referenced in the report in connection with the unrest on 9 September.&nbsp;
In fact, the report also outlines how supporters stormed Nakhu Prison on 9 September to organise Rabi Lamichhane’s jailbreak. Will Minister Gurung also go after his own party's leadership? &nbsp;
With the UML already calling for nationwide protests against the detention of its leaders, there is concern that Nepal is plunging straight into turmoil instead of stability.
The UML leadership has been unrepentant about the 8 September events. Oli has defiantly blamed infiltration and outside forces for the killings, and unlike the Nepali Congress the UML has not managed its own leadership changeover.&nbsp;
The NC under Gagan Thapa as well as the Nepali Communist Party of Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal have so far been silent about the detentions even though former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak is from the NC.
Oli and Lekhak’s arrests will now be challenged in the courts. But their detention also signals to Nepal’s political old guard that the tables have turned: legacy leaders cannot be complacent and assume they will disappear from national consciousness for past deeds without being held accountable for what happened during their watch.
The RSP government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah seems determined not to let bygones be bygones. But while that is all and well, it remains to be see whether the party can deliver on the need of the electorate for tangible governance reform.
The danger is that the new rulers may be defined by the same tactics of political revenge as its predecessors in the name of meting out justice.

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