<figure><img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccc99c7e80680e08bc40jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: NABIN BARAL / www.thethirdpole.net</figcaption></figure>Plans to build Nepal’s biggest hydropower project was been delayed by politics and compensation issues for 10 years, but is now held up because the Chinese contractor is incommunicado.The 263-m high dam on the Budi Gandaki River will be the world’s tenth tallest, and impound a reservoir 45km long displacing 50,000 people, to generate 1.200MW of electricity. But the $2.5 billion project is in doubt because of delays and doubts about its viability.The project, situated 60km northwest of Kathmandu, was supposed to be completed by 2022. It had been cancelled and revived several times by successive governments, but has been stuck for the past year because of the pandemic.The China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) was awarded the main construction contract in 2018, but has not shown up for the past year.  “We have repeatedly tried to communicate with the company, but it has not responded clearly. We cannot say whether they are in or out, it is between somewhere and nowhere,” said Gokarna Raj Panta at the Ministry of Water Resources, Energy and Irrigation in Kathmandu.‘Between somewhere and nowhere’ is also a fitting description of the lives of the people of the Budi Gandaki Valley whose homes, farms and livelihoods will be submerged by what will be Nepal’s largest reservoir.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F22pmtP1Q4M&amp;feature=youtu.beHowever, at the project office in Siurenitar near the proposed dam site there is frantic activity. Phones are ringing constantly, and staff are busy taking calls from those asking about their compensation claims.  “The first priority is land acquisition and we have already paid out Rs33 billion as compensation,” said Krishna Bahadur Karki who heads the project’s compensation and resettlement unit. Another Rs20 billion is earmarked for reimbursement for homes, livestock, trees and other assets.The government froze land dealings in 2013 along the valley, but in anticipation of jobs and economic activity new roads and towns have sprung up in a district tht has seen dramatic depopulation due to outmigration.Ghare Gurung runs a roadside metal workshop outlet 40km north of the dam site. He bought this small patch in Arkhet using money saved from working in Malaysia. He got Rs120,000 compensation for it.“Now they have been saying that a 10% depreciation cost would be applied for our infrastructure. If it happens, then I need to pay them instead of receiving money,” he said.Besides submergence of the main valley, the reservoir will put another 22km of land along the Aankhu Khola tributary under water.   <img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccccc9c7e80680e08bc41jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="1777" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd19c7e80680e08bc42jpeg.jpg" alt="">Gyanu Maya Shrestha sells snacks from a small stall by the Aankhu Khola in Hepne of Dhading district, and is worried about her future.  The April 2015 earthquake destroyed her home and her animal shed, killing her buffaloes, oxen, and goats. Before the quake, officials from the project had assessed both structures. “After the earthquake, they inspected it again, and now say they will reduce the compensation,” says Shrestha.The response from project officials was that the pre-earthquake inspection was for the environmental impact assessment (EIA) report, not compensation. While many other quake-hit communities have built new houses, people along these two rivers have not. Krishna Majhi lives in unregistered land at Gumti village, 10km from the proposed dam. In 2017, the government had agreed to compensate structures on unregistered land. Till now, no payments have been made.Krishna uses part of his earthquake-damaged house as a kitchen but has spent five years living in a makeshift structure. “Even a small earthquake would now be enough to kill us, and we cannot dismantle it because we need to show it to the project for compensation,” he said. <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd49c7e80680e08bc43jpeg.jpg" alt="">Many promises were made to locals to persuade them to hand over their land, including of resettlement. They were asked to fill forms saying where they wanted to be resettled and what facilities they needed. “We were told that new villages will be built in the slopes above the reservoir we would be provided all facilities. But we have heard nothing since, all these years they tricked us,” said Sushil Dharel, from Khahare on the Ankhu Khola.Back at the compensation office, Karki says he can understand the frustration of the people, but adds, “The compensation amount is many times higher than the government rates, and there are rules. There are also people who have received millions in compensation and bought houses in Kathmandu.”Indeed, while some have done well from compensation payouts, the majority are from poorer communities without political clout or access. They resent the way the authorities downplay their problems.“Our field is irrigable, there is a market nearby and we can produce three crops a year. I can’t buy a piece of land in the city with our project compensation, how do I make a living there?” asks Pampha Khadka from Khahare, bursting into tears.  Government officials in Kathmandu do not have any clearer answers on resettlement, but say the details need to be ironed out.“We have drafted a resettlement policy, but there isn’t clarity on the modality of project implementation. Unless it is finalised, resettlement is not possible,” said Gokarna Raj Panta at Nepal’s Ministry of Water Resources, Energyand Irrigation.Botched resettlement policies are not new in projects in Nepal. And in Budi Gandaki, too, there are problems. Some families have spent the money they got on parties, which means they will be homeless and landless if not resettled. Many have used payouts to meet their daily needs or pay debt, buy motorbikes or educate and marry off their children.“I received about Rs100,000 for a piece of land. I spent Rs10,000 on my grandchildren and sent Rs 80,000 to my daughter in Kathmandu for her studies,” said Purna Bahadur Ale Magar from Arkhet.According to the <a href="https://bghep.gov.np/images/category/EIA-Final-Report-2016.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://bghep.gov.np/images/category/EIA-Final-Report-2016.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEZ6Lul1s1B_1d91EBJUQE6RtCeUA">environmental impact assessment</a>, the reservoir will submerge 2,400 hectares of forests with 3.5 million trees of 38 species. The forests are home to 19 mammal species, 9 reptiles and 54 birds. They include 15 protected species, and there are five fish species on the IUCN red list, whose habitat will disrupted.  There has not been much interest from environmental activists and civil society groups in Nepal.  “There was interest in the 1990s about the social and environmental costs of large hydro projects, but Budi Gandaki shows that there is no concern anymore,” says  water resource expert Ajaya Dixit.  There is also cultural impact. Much of life in rural Nepal revolves around rivers, which are considered holy. The Budi Gandaki reservoir will submerge 44  cremation sites, 74 religious and 29 places of historic and cultural importance.   <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccd89c7e80680e08bc44jpeg.jpg" alt="">“Even if you raise genuine and serious concern, you are tagged as being anti-development. I think this has helped to instill fear at all levels and civil society has fallen prey to it,” he added.The project will also undermine the region’s achievements in forest conservation. Some 1,500 hectares of community forests managed by 62 communities will be impacted bny the reservoir. The Pashupati Community Forest in Majhitar is one of them, where locals are cutting trees before the waters start rising.About 200m above the riverbank, Suresh Shah pointed out freshly cut tree stumps. “When I try to stop them, they say why do you care about these trees, we have lost everything,” he said. “Feelings of ownership had helped conserve the forest, but that is gone now.”  Karki, the project office manager, was unable to answer any questions on environmental issues, and his engineer was equally at a loss. “This is an issue which will be dealt with when construction starts. We have not thought about it and have not been advised on how to deal with it,” Karki said.After the deadly flood on the Alkananda River in India this month that destroyed two hydro power projects and killed at least 100 people, concerns about the impact of the climate crisis also loom large. The Budi Gandaki watershed drains the eastern flanks of Himalchuli and Manaslu and the Ganesh Mssif to the east, which has many glacial lakes in danger of bursting.Experts say it is very risky to build such a large and expensive projects directly downstream from mountains that are melting rapidly due to the climate emergency.In Kathmandu, three successive governments in the last three years have made as many decisions to award or scrap the contract with China Gezhouba Group Corporation. After pre-feasibility study in 1984, the project was sidelined till 2006, when it was opened to international bidders. No expressions of interest were received.It was next revived in 2011, when Nepal’s power outages exceeded 12 hours per day. Once again, international companies showed no interest, so the government opted to make Budi Gandaki into a ‘national pride project’ – a development priority with a bigger budget from domestic resources.In 2016, the Belgian multinational <a href="https://tractebel-engie.com/en/the-history-of-tractebel" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://tractebel-engie.com/en/the-history-of-tractebel&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6UKIRE1xX87FdmFnCa5KUg3vVAw">Tractebel</a> completed a detailed design. The project was set to move ahead with local funds and management when China entered the picture in 2017.A few days before leaving office, the Maoist party Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s cabinet awarded the project to China Gezhouba Group Corporation, without any bidding.In November 2017, the incoming Nepali Congress-led government promptly scrapped the contract stating irregularities and lack of transparency. A court action followed. Nepal got another new government four months later, and K P Oli became prime minister who returned the project to China Gezhouba in September 2018.Now the problem is that China Gezhouba is showing little interest and failing to respond to Nepali government requests for information.“It's not that Chinese are less interested now. They are just waiting for a favourable time as there is political chaos in the country,”said Nepali hydro-economist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327182585_Power_Paradox_Growth_of_the_Hydro_Sector_in_Nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327182585_Power_Paradox_Growth_of_the_Hydro_Sector_in_Nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFUZgWsCJNS8MFxLk3h6ib6tsjtCw">Ratna Sansar Shrestha.</a> In his view, China’s interest in Nepali hydro projects is limited to making money from construction contracts. “India has more interest in Nepal's water as it depends on water that flows from the mountains for irrigating vast swathes of land in the Gangetic plains,” Shrestha explained.   <img width="1778" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccdb9c7e80680e08bc45jpeg.jpg" alt="">Geopolitical friction The Budi Gandaki feeds into the Gandaki, one of Nepal’s four main rivers. It flows into India’s Bihar state and eventually empties into the Ganges.  Nepal and India signed the 1959 <a href="https://www.moewri.gov.np/storage/listies/May2020/aggrement-on-nepal-and-india-gandak-river-1959.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.moewri.gov.np/storage/listies/May2020/aggrement-on-nepal-and-india-gandak-river-1959.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFnWToLZflbwMZONfOd4NCCvNXDzA">Gandak Treaty</a>, which bars Nepal from upstream activities that would impact water flow in Bihar, where millions of hectares of farmland depend on waters from the Gandak (as Gandaki is known in India). However, China’s growing influence in Nepal as the largest provider of foreign direct investment could lead to geopolitical friction, according to a <a href="https://asiafoundation.org/2018/08/15/the-price-of-power-the-political-economy-of-electricity-trade-and-hydropower-in-eastern-south-asia/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://asiafoundation.org/2018/08/15/the-price-of-power-the-political-economy-of-electricity-trade-and-hydropower-in-eastern-south-asia/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGJXMeATWXJ7aUlNj-_Ex9ogLOAGw">2018 report by the Asia Society</a>. Chinese firms recently built two other hydro projects in Nepal at Upper Marsyangdi A and Upper Madi, with a combined capacity of 75 MW. But both are run-of-the-river schemes, unlike Budi Gandaki which would be a gigantic reservoir. Indian state owned and private firms have not built a power project in Nepal since the mid-1980s, although one is involved in large projects on the Arun River. However, India is promoting cross-border trade in electricity as part of the nascent BBNI (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) regional sub-group in its sphere of influence. Both Nepal and Bhutan have objected to the Indian power ministry’s statement in December 2016 that electricity was a ‘strategic commodity’ so non-BBNI foreign powers could not be involved in the supply chain.    Shrestha says India is not concerned about China’s involvement in the Budi Gandaki project, whose power is solely for domestic use, and it views the reservoir positively.  “In general, India is not happy with Chinese companies being involved in Nepal's hydropower, but in Budi Gandaki they are more than happy as India would get lean-season augmented flow for free,” he added.   India had said it was not interested in investing in or building the Budi Gandaki project, and withdrew from bilateral talks in the late 90s. Another water expert, Dipak Gyawali says that the irrigation aspect has been completely ignored in designing Budi Gandaki.   Gyawali headed a review committee formed by the government to look at the design, and says: “About 100,000 hectares of land in Nawalparasi and Chitwan districts downstream could have benefitted in Nepal. The water that flows in dry months from the reservoir is not flowing water, it's produced by submerging our land and through our investment. If India uses this water then we should get financial returns.” Another problem Gyawali sees in this project is that it is located close to the epicenter of the 2015 earthquake and may not be able to withstand a future megaquake. “For a seismically active region like Nepal, rock filled dams are better than concrete double arch dams as proposed on the design,” he said. But Laxmi Devkota, the former Chair of the Budi Gandaki Development Committee, claimed that it has been designed with a serious consideration for earthquake impacts and is within international seismic resistance parameters. The many delays risk making the Budi Gandaki project financially unviable. Costs are plummeting for other renewables, such as solar and wind power, and emerging hydrogen energy technology. According to the Asia Foundation <a href="https://asiafoundation.org/publication/the-price-of-power/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://asiafoundation.org/publication/the-price-of-power/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHA-718IXF7L4V8YODxQxVtc-crlA"> report</a>, solar electricity tariffs in Rajasthan, India, fell from more than 19 cents per unit in 2010 to 3.6 cents, and wind energy was  around 3.7 cents. Nepal’s hydropower costs 7 cents per unit to produce. India, which is Nepal’s expected energy export market, is ramping up renewable energy capacity fast with 37 gigawatts of solar and 38 gigawatts in wind by 2020. However, Budi Gandaki’s output is planned for domestic use so need not compete directly in the regional market. Nonetheless, the technical costs are making its value questionable, even for domestic use. “If we can develop this project within five years then we will definitely save some money, but if it is the next 20 years then it would be a hotpot of corruption for politicians and bureaucrats. It looks like this project is losing its technical strength in terms of cost already,” said Dipendra Bhattarai, an energy expert. <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/2019/04/09/nepals-hydropower/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thethirdpole.net/2019/04/09/nepals-hydropower/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613840507629000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8pzipmFIljVwAHCiTObtvXl5OUg">Who will buy Nepal’s hydropower?</a> Finally, the daily power cuts that drove Nepal's policymakers to revive the project in 2011 have ceased.  Nepal doubled its electricity production from 700MW in 2010 to 1400 MW in 2014. Another 700MW is likely to be added in the next couple of years. However, Nepal has been importing about 600 megawatts from India in the dry, winter months (November to April) to meet peak demand as the smaller run-of-the-river projects struggle when water levels are low-- one motivation to build a big reservoir.  The Budi Gandaki hydropower plant should have been completed by 2022. In 2015, the project cost was estimated at 2.5 billion— more than one fourth of Nepal’s total budget that year. Says Laxmi Devkota of the project: “We have already lost about half a billion dollars in the last four years if we consider just 10% inflation rate. Another one and half billion dollars could have been gained by selling electricity in the four years that were delayed. We are already on loss at total project cost amount.”  The story was first published on <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/">The Third Pole</a>. Accompanying video by Nabin Baral.

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Nepal’s mega-dam is a mirage

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21e89c7e80680e041761jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower (900 MW) in Daab in Dailekh district. Indian company GMR is in final stage to start construction of the project. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Dal Bahadur Shahi lives in Tuinkuna, in Dailekh district of western Nepal. This is the proposed site for Nepal’s largest hydropower project, the 900 megawatt (MW) <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6689#.XDSJuFUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Upper Karnali</a><a href="http://www.ibn.gov.np/project/upper-karnali-hep">.</a> He was in his 50s when he first heard that electricity would be produced from the river he used to cross it several times a day. “My arms could conquer the strongest waves of the river back then, but now I don’t dare to go near it,” he said. “Even if the project is built, I won’t be able to see it. But I hope that our sacrifice of leaving this place for the sake of the nation will not be forgotten.” Read also: Part 1: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a>Part 3: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a>Part 4: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dancing with the river</a> Part 5: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait</a> <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21eb9c7e80680e041762jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Dal Bahadur Shahi in Twinkuna in Dailekh district in the bank of Karnali river where the biggest hydropower is about to kick off. Shahi's family will be displaced once the dam construction starts. Photo: NABIN BARALIn the late 1990s, when the first project survey began, an engineer advised Dal Bahadur to buy more land so that he would receive compensation when the dam was built. But Shahi did not heed the advice, he did not have enough money anyway. There have been numerous surveys after that, but the locals were unaware of the wider water and electricity politics at play. In 2008 an Indian company, <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://www.gmrgroup.in/hand-shake.aspx">GMR</a> got the deal to carry out a detailed study, but a decade later the project is yet to take off. The company signed the project development agreement four years ago but has not yet managed to attract investors. “I don’t think this company has money. It looks like it will sell the license at higher price to another company and it will be delayed,” says another resident, Lokendra Rawat, who left his village in 2008 when the company set up a project office. “I came here to operate a hotel as the construction work would bring a lot of people. But it looks like I will be too old when it will be implemented,” he smiled. <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21ee9c7e80680e041763jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1061">Map: STEFANO WROBLESKIRecently the company said it had provided compensation for the 250 families whose land will be submerged, but only a few people have received it. Dal Bahadur’s two sons were lucky to get compensation a few months ago. The company has now halted the compensation process and no one knows when it will resume. There is talk that the company is only paying compensation to influential and politically powerful people. The Upper Karnali has always been a high profile political project. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, and Nepal’s then Prime Minister Sushil Koirala signed a deal for the project during Modi’s visit to Nepal in 2014. But investors have not been convinced and it is unclear who will buy the electricity. The project is designed to generate power for export to India, but there is no power purchase agreement. Frustrated by the lack of progress in India, last year the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Bangladesh, which could buy the electricity. Later in August this year Nepal signed a <a href="http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2018-08-11/nepal-bangladesh-sign-power-cooperation-deal.html">cooperation agreement</a> with Bangladesh aimed at facilitating power trade. Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f09c7e80680e041764jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>In Rabalde, power house site of Upper Karnali hydro project is seen through fish net hung in Roshan Buda'a home in Accham. Zinc sheet roofed buildings in the field is the office of GMR company which is building the project. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Nepal needs permission from India to take electricity across India to Bangladesh so all three countries need to agree on a deal. But experts say it’s not easy given the complex geopolitics of the region. Even so, India recently indicated that it’s open to trilateral trade by amending its earlier cross border trade regulation.Some speculate that this move to ease the trade of electricity was only to help the Indian company GMR to secure financing for Upper Karnali. Nevertheless the amendment is also good news for Chinese and other companies who have been eyeing bigger projects in Nepal. The project on the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18119#.XDSEGFUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Karnali</a> Bend was first envisaged as a 240 MW project in the 1990s, but has grown in scale over the decades. GMR agreed to build a 900MW plant in 2008, but some technocrats and activists have blamed Nepal’s government for selling the project short. The feasibility study identified the possibility of developing a 4,180 MW project a little further upriver from where the current 900 MW project is planned. Whether this is really possible or not, given the fragile geology of the region, is another matter.“Why was the best and cheapest project to build handed over to a foreign company who will export the energy, while we have a shortage of power? It should be developed for us,” said Ratan Bhandari, a water rights activist from the region. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f39c7e80680e041765jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A kayaker paddles in the Karnali River in Accham district of Nepal. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The current project will still be the biggest hydropower project in Nepal worth $1.5 billion. The Upper Karnali has rare <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/what-in-it-for-us,3994" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hydropower</a> potential, where water can be pushed through a 2.5 km tunnel over a drop of 130 metres, creating a huge generating capacity. This project is often called ‘jewel in the crown’ of Nepal’s hydropower. “Our jewel has been sold at the rate of coal,” says Ratna Sansar Shrestha, a hydro-economist. Nepal’s move towards big dams has come at a time when scientists warn that more extreme weather events like floods and landslides will increase in the already fragile mountains in the region. “The changing probabilities and magnitudes of extreme events can place additional risk on power generation infrastructure (dams and hydropower plants) as well as secondary infrastructure (roads and transmission lines). Further, hazards associated with shrinking glaciers, such as glacial lake outburst floods, can jeopardise large infrastructure investment,” says a <a href="http://lib.icimod.org/record/32006/files/StatKraft_Review_final.pdf">report</a> by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. A <a href="http://lib.icimod.org/record/29591">study</a> in 2014 also revealed that Nepal’s glaciers have shrunk by 24% and its ice reserves by 29% over the past three decades.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21f69c7e80680e041766jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Mount Kailash in Tibet. Four large rivers of Asia originate from four sides of Mount Kailash-- the Brahmaputra (called Yarlung-Tsangpo) from the east, the Karnali from the south, the Sutlej from the west and the Indus from the north. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>However, developers say that current knowledge about impacts of climate change in hydropower is inadequate and does not help better planning. While reports say that the hydropower projects will be impacted, they lack the details as to what degree, and what precisely to take into consideration, says Kumar Pandey of the <a href="http://www.ippan.org.np/page/ippan-committee/">Independent Power Producers Association Nepal</a> (IPPAN). “Investors need accurate information with evidence at micro scale so that they can use it while developing the project so there is need of specific knowledge about the impacts,” adds Pandey.  There are other dangers. Seismologists like Roger Bilham of the University of Coloradio say that a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mega earthquake is long overdue</a> in western Nepal. “There are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming megaquake in western Nepal,” <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he told Nepali Times</a>. If built, the project will be the first hydropower plant on the Karnali, the country’s longest river which originates near Mount Kailash in Tibet and becomes Ghaghara in India before it meets the Ganga at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.  Megh Ale, team leader of the Karnali expedition, believes the main stream of the Karnali should be left free-flowing, “We can bring millions of tourists here while other tributaries could be used for electricity,” he says (see below). Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/rivers-fighting-back,993" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The rivers are fighting back</a>, Megh Alehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns7jytSwpngBesides tourism, hydropower development would also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/project-dragonfly/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endanger aquatic species</a>. “Aquatic life has been threatened by hydropower across the country and if it continues many species will go extinct,” says Deep Narayan Shah, a researcher from Nepal’s Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Environmental Science. Nepal’s hydropower policy has a mandatory provision for developers to maintain 10% flow of water downstream around the year, but this has not been implemented and monitored. Chief minister of Karnali Province Mahendra Bahadur Shahi says there has to be greater understanding about river ecosystems and suffering of people, who are critically dependent on the river and its resources, like fish. “We may revisit the agreement done with GMR and I have told them that it won’t go ahead as agreed,” he says as he joined the expedition on the banks of Karnali recently. However a few weeks later Shahi told journalists that he was willing to waive taxes for the developers, adding that without large hydroelectric projects, Karnali Province would remain poor.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1a6JHJufKgIt is common practice for companies to hold licences for years and then sell them to another company. Late last year, GMR (the same company that holds the licence for Upper Karnali) pulled out of the 600MW Upper Marsyangdi project after holding the licence for years.  A consortium of Nepali and Chinese investors bought shares from GMR just as work was due to start. The parliamentary committee of Nepal has <a href="http://setopati.net/market/134280">formed a probe committee</a> to investigate further.China is becoming a new but important player in Nepal’s energy politics, dominated by India for decades. There are two big projects in pipeline, the $2.5 billion <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/08/06/building-budhigandaki/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Budi Gandaki</a> and the $1.8 billion West Seti – both reservoir projects, and both controversial. Earlier last year, the Nepal government announced that the 750 MW <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19084#.XDSL01UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">West Seti project</a>, on one of the tributaries of the Karnali in western Nepal, would be built by Nepali firms while the license of the project had already been given to China's Three Gorges Company (CTGC). Negotiations then failed, resulting in the Chinese withdrawing from the project.The 1,200MW Budhi Gandaki in central Nepal has also had a series of setbacks as the Nepal government awarded the project to China’s Ghezhuoba firm, only to scrap it a year later, and then re-awarding the contract to the same company.This has increased doubts among locals that Karnali will ever be built. “The most productive time of my life has gone waiting for this project to kick off,” says Bal Bahadur Shahi at Ramaghat, 3km downstream from the project site. Frustration is growing and locals are in a mood to fight back. Says Shahi: “We will wait at least for one more year. If the project is still not implemented, we will ask the government to take it over.” The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent installments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali

As dusk fell over Kathmandu, the thunderstorm continued unabated. It had been raining continuously for 18 hours, and the forecast said it would keep raining at least till 8am on Sunday. The Bagmati roared through Chobhar Gorge in awesome rapids – the only drainage outlet for the entire Kathmandu Valley. By evening, 120mm of rain had fallen in 18 hours, more than the average for the whole of October.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_99ad9098124bec91da71ac42bbe889981fe64dda2dd3012b8bb289cf78ba4c54.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251004161016_99ad9098124bec91da71ac42bbe889981fe64dda2dd3012b8bb289cf78ba4c54" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_59b97f3a3b2af91d3876b298963b3e68395c8b388aba6d9972c9bde1f668608d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251004161016_59b97f3a3b2af91d3876b298963b3e68395c8b388aba6d9972c9bde1f668608d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_1715f4d6ff1ee87302b697d3c95df36486bea71ed279852ef606c8f5dc68439b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251004161016_1715f4d6ff1ee87302b697d3c95df36486bea71ed279852ef606c8f5dc68439b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_ecd3dec69270afbd5a5c71dfa71780b6f8982984a95f3fbb83f23ee594451224.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251004161016_ecd3dec69270afbd5a5c71dfa71780b6f8982984a95f3fbb83f23ee594451224" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_53e47ae222c9f4397bcdad6d8021a711a5671fd45373fb3df2ed5c6413d58359.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251004161016_53e47ae222c9f4397bcdad6d8021a711a5671fd45373fb3df2ed5c6413d58359" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>  Settlements along the banks of Bagmati and Vishnumati in Kathmandu have been evacuated and affected families will be temporarily sheltered in schools across the capital.&nbsp; Bagmati Province has set up a Unified Command Team for disaster management while the Home Ministry has instructed CDO and security personnel to be on duty 24/7.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004171048_7e5d10f8e0042190e54e6db6cddbd51ed9d6d9dbc0cdb087d7af3207c9eaa2d0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20251004171048_7e5d10f8e0042190e54e6db6cddbd51ed9d6d9dbc0cdb087d7af3207c9eaa2d0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="888" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Friday's satellite precipitation forecast for Sunday morning at 0600 showing heavy rainfall along the Chure Hills and Madhes Province south of Kathmandu. </figcaption> </figure>  The torrential rain has obstructed several highways as well as caused infrastructure damage, but no human casualties have been reported so far. Many had feared a repeat of the deadly flashfloods on 28 September 2024 in which 200 people were killed and half of Nepal's hydropower generation capacity siped out. The government has declared 5 and 6 October as a public holiday to prevent people from travelling during the Dasain festival, and to reduce risk. All highways in and out of Kathmandu closed till Monday. Flood-prone river corridor roads in Kathmandu have been closed after 6PM on Saturday. Meanwhile, all domestic flights were suspended from Kathmandu and other airports from 2PM Saturday, and most inbound international flights were diverted from 3PM onwards. Rerouted flights started arriving in kathmandu late Saturday as the core of the storm system moved east.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_bad029b05dbfda622986270a798edc6efcc2791ff34f53b9d1283554ac72c39a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251004151056_bad029b05dbfda622986270a798edc6efcc2791ff34f53b9d1283554ac72c39a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_9e740929c7ef0899b0f397195695b873bba45b089bb1e11cf37dbe125d0cd60d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20251004151052_9e740929c7ef0899b0f397195695b873bba45b089bb1e11cf37dbe125d0cd60d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1363" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_2b75c2ea57df76dae1c470f0e460720b7d258868258789729e491ab93cb41ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20251004151056_2b75c2ea57df76dae1c470f0e460720b7d258868258789729e491ab93cb41ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_6c045ac30e50710bcf3ca7b6ca4ac9c45e8d8881ed39f522779c860b0d3f15c3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20251004151056_6c045ac30e50710bcf3ca7b6ca4ac9c45e8d8881ed39f522779c860b0d3f15c3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_9ef160b8403764495b86159661cc9a11d9d7d3b848686a631e5ec8cff0c4c38f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20251004151052_9ef160b8403764495b86159661cc9a11d9d7d3b848686a631e5ec8cff0c4c38f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_e5825bcc6666e5235d9db2d4854a19cd6536335ebaf4cd65413acc601ceee3b5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20251004151052_e5825bcc6666e5235d9db2d4854a19cd6536335ebaf4cd65413acc601ceee3b5" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_097077400e96f571f4418cd7b57c082045d86dd9035c31c5acd7ede2bfc54349.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20251004151056_097077400e96f571f4418cd7b57c082045d86dd9035c31c5acd7ede2bfc54349" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_30a4da8f384f6fe1a862e775124ae08ccf51c1db60e71e7e2d683e0f25f33546.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20251004151056_30a4da8f384f6fe1a862e775124ae08ccf51c1db60e71e7e2d683e0f25f33546" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>  Madhes, Bagmati and Kosi provinces are the worst hit with Maheshpur in Rautahat district recording 270mm of rain as of 3PM on Saturday. Similarly, Gaur received 243.6mm, Kalaiya in Bara 200.6mm and Birganj 221.4mm. The Department of Meteorology did not blame climate change, but said the unusually heavy precipitation at a time when the monsoon is supposed to have ended was caused by the head-on collision between moisture-laden westerlies with the retreating monsoon.

More dark clouds over Nepal

Kathmandu: A Reader, the latest publication from Martin Chautari, is an anthology of anthropological essays exploring Kathmandu through various lenses across the 21st century. This compilation is edited by Benjamin Linder and attempts to bring modern discourses on Kathmandu and its urbanity together, in a single volume. The book is divided into three sections: the physical form of the city, the imprints it bears from past political upheavals, and the complexity in the lives of its people. The book examines these diverse aspects, leaving readers who have just witnessed the momentous events of September with anxiety, and perhaps a greater understanding of Kathmandu’s context. Urban planning expert Biresh Shah’s discourse on the Valley’s urban sprawl and its landmarks is insightful, but also prophetic when he warns about seismic risk.&nbsp; Jan Brunson’s chapter on female mobility in Kathmandu via scooters is more optimistic, suggesting small-scale, daily-life movements in Kathmandu transform the city for its various demographics — in this case young women.&nbsp; Linder himself contributes with a discourse on the toponymy of Thamel, close-reading Kathmandu’s tourist hub through the usage and understanding of its name over the ages. MYTHBUSTERS The book is a collage of pieces held together by a thread that runs through the chapters of a vibrant, bustling image of the Valley. One common theme is Linder’s attempt to expand on common understandings and urban myths about Kathmandu. Readers who have spent time in the city will relate to the many anecdotes. for example, Niels Gutschow bringing up the lack of open spaces, or Mark Liechty mentioning restaurants in Kathmandu being melting pots of cultures and castes.&nbsp; The essays here further extend these urban legends by giving historical and anthropological contexts. In-migration and the rise in land prices have led to shrinking open spaces, the creation of cosmopolitan food outlets, and even hubs for sex workers. The Bagmati cleanliness campaign extends to a past understanding of the Bagmati Civilisation. Urban myths become puzzles to be solved by connecting the various threads of discussion across the book. The sections in Kathmandu: A Reader are all by experts in their various fields and present a holistic, well-rounded picture. Yet, it is obvious there is still more ground to cover, more themes to explore — perhaps by more Nepali scholars.&nbsp; In his introduction, Linder admits that due to practical reasons, ‘many wonderful works were left on the cutting room floor’. That is a pity. Indeed, there could have been more discourse on the changing ethnic composition of Kathmandu. A close-read into the lives of people termed as ‘outsiders’ but forming a growing slice of the population would be important to also chart future trends. &nbsp; The religious importance of Kathmandu as a unique civilisational alloy forged by melding the Hindu and Buddhist faiths can be explored more too. One can imagine a future edition including an examination of the post-Covid era Kathmandu valley.&nbsp; This need to broaden the ethnographic literature on Kathmandu becomes more apparent because 11 out of the 15 essays here are written by non-Nepali scholars, including the entire section focusing on urban cultural politics. Linder explains in his introduction that this was largely due to the community of academics in Nepali urban studies being fairly small. Kathmandu: A Reader then becomes even more integral as a gateway for new authors looking to work in the space of urban research on the Valley — undergraduates in the humanities for future theses and research ideas.&nbsp; In a time when Kathmandu is littered with new exam coaching centres for medical and engineering students, an anthology like this helps remind young scholars that there is plenty of scope for qualitative research in the social sciences. Sabin Ninglekhu’s discourse on the sukumbasi and aesthetics in Kathmandu are reminders that stories and academic journeys can be inspired from one’s surroundings. Kathmandu: A Reader has a good balance between academic and lighter readings, and is almost encyclopaedic in nature. There is even content about Kathmandu’s gangsters and scooty girls — allowing readers to venture deeper into their milieu.&nbsp; Kshitiz Pratap Shah is a recent graduate in English from Ashoka University.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251002051016_c8ce28ecfd0dde4986023822b3d40360ead97d29b7f186f6494d8da67021c5a5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251002051016_c8ce28ecfd0dde4986023822b3d40360ead97d29b7f186f6494d8da67021c5a5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmanu a reader"> </figure>

A reader for Kathmandu

Following the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">uprising of 8-9 September</a>, the Nepal Army commenced a series of consultations concerning the transition process, during which the potential reinstatement of the monarchy was reportedly under consideration.&nbsp; However, former King Gyanendra Shah declined to pursue this option without a consensus among the political parties. This information was conveyed by Madhav Kumar Nepal, a former Prime Minister and a notable critic of the monarchy, in a newspaper article. The former king, for his part, delivered his annual Dasain message to the nation on 28 September. He emphasised, among other points, that the younger generation constitutes the foundation of the nation’s future.&nbsp; ‘Only the patriotic spirit, energy, and innovative thinking inherent in them can guide the nation toward strength, prosperity, and self-reliance. Let us reflect upon ourselves in the mirror of our country,’ he said. ‘Our political endeavours have often focused on destruction. Now, our initiatives should aim not at ruin but at improvement.’ Seventeen years <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-ghost-of-monarchy-returns-to-haunt-nepal">after Nepal abolished its monarchy</a> and became a federal secular democratic republic, the monarchy still influences the country’s political scene, mainly because of the persistent weaknesses of democratic institutions. Throughout much of its modern history, Nepal’s political landscape was controlled by the monarchy. During the partyless Panchayat system (1960-1990), the palace was consistently criticised for its authoritarian rule. However, it presented itself as the defender of national unity and sovereignty, especially against Indian influence. The 1990 People’s Movement transitioned Nepal into a constitutional monarchy. However, this period was marred by persistent instability, including the outbreak of a Maoist insurgency in 1996 and a royal palace massacre five years later.&nbsp; By 2005, when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/tell-me-what-the-common-man-is-thinking">the new king, Gyanendra</a>, assumed full control, detaining politicians and restricting press freedoms, the monarchy’s legitimacy was already under scrutiny. The mass movement of 2006 resulted in the end of royal rule, leading to the official abolition of the 240-year-old Shah dynasty in 2008. Supporters of a republic saw this as the outcome of years of activism. In contrast, royalists viewed it as the sudden dismantling of an institution they believed had united Nepal. The new political framework aimed to promote stability, prosperity, and inclusion. However, Nepal has seen over 14 different governments in 17 years. Divided by factionalism, political parties have often focused on overthrowing rivals instead of effective governance. Widespread corruption persists. Infrastructure projects frequently face delays. Millions of young Nepalis leave the country to find jobs, resulting in the loss of many of the nation’s most talented individuals. The common belief that politicians amass wealth while ordinary citizens struggle has caused deep disillusionment. This serious situation led <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/international-spotlight-on-nepal">Nepal’s Generation Z to protest</a> in the streets. Within this broader context, for many, the monarchy has reemerged as a symbol of stability. To some, the king signifies unity that goes beyond partisan divisions. To others, the last Hindu monarch represents cultural continuity amid secular and federalist upheavals. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-deja-vu-on-black-friday">Royalist demonstrations in Kathmandu</a> have mobilised tens of thousands. However, electoral support remains limited. The leading pro-monarchy party, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), secured merely about 6 percent of the vote in the 2022 elections.&nbsp; Major political parties remain steadfast in their commitment to republicanism, and Nepal’s younger, globally connected population broadly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-new-dawn-for-democracy-in-nepal">identifies with democracy</a>, despite frustrations with its shortcomings. Remembrances of King Gyanendra’s authoritarian rule serve as strong reminders of why the monarchy was abolished. However, this memory is gradually being replaced by more recent events.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251002111020_c018307c7b7dda363d04be3d65f01d132c81c62bae7ed2aa1ea235a12719b251.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251002111020_c018307c7b7dda363d04be3d65f01d132c81c62bae7ed2aa1ea235a12719b251" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="monarchy in Nepal"> <figcaption>Photo: SAROJ BAIZU</figcaption> </figure>  PUBLIC IMPATIENCE Amid dissatisfaction with political parties, a question has emerged about whether the country needs an institution that can enforce discipline. As a result, calls for the reinstatement of the king are not just about Mr Gyanendra Shah, but also reflect a broader desire for government that is stable, accountable, and respectful. The influence of the monarchy extends into regional affairs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/america-nepal-and-the-royal-coup-qedzifz9">During the Cold War</a>, the palace adeptly balanced relations between India and China, positioning itself as the guardian of Nepal’s sovereignty.&nbsp; It also carefully navigated pressures from the United States and the Soviet Union. Today, as Nepal faces pressures from New Delhi, Beijing and Washington, some royalists perceive the monarchy as a safeguard against external interference. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">2015 blockade imposed by India</a> impacted Nepal’s economy and led the country to seek closer comprehensive relations with China. As a result, India has adopted a more cautious approach toward Nepal’s republican leadership.&nbsp; China is viewed as supportive of centralised authority, in contrast to Nepal’s democratic institutions. There are perceptions that the United States, previously supportive of the monarchy, may once again consider it a stable partner. Officially, India, China, the broader international community, and major donors continue to support <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-story-so-far">Nepal’s post-2006 political order</a>. At the same time, they observe ongoing discussions among Nepalis about the possibility of a constitutional monarchy within a democratic framework. Following the recent unrest, some Nepalis believe that restoring the monarchy could create uncertainty for India and China, given Nepal’s complex political landscape. Others suggest that worries about perceived Western influence on the interim government through international NGOs might trigger serious soul-searching in New Delhi and Beijing. Despite its limited mandate to hold elections on March 5, 2026, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-pm-set-to-expand-her-cabinet">he interim government</a>, led by former Chief Justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/madam-prime-minister-of-nepal">Sushila Karki</a>, has an opportunity to start rebuilding public trust. Although the new government continues to enjoy popularity, there is evident public impatience regarding its delays in investigating corruption and misconduct by the previous leadership, as well as the incidents of killings, looting, and arson during the protests.&nbsp; The nation has been further unsettled by whispers of an impending and potentially more significant political upheaval prior to the upcoming elections. Republicans believe that demonstrating the effectiveness of democracy is the best way to mitigate calls for a monarchy. However, if the leadership fails to address key issues such as corruption, unemployment, and institutional strengthening, it could further boost the monarchy’s influence – and potentially lead to its comeback. Sanjay Upadhya is the author oand analyst based in the Unoited States. Originally posted <a href="http://originally%20published%20at%20https//www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-monarchy-still-sways-nepals-republic-sanjay-upadhya-pe4xe" target="_blank">here.</a>

Why the monarchy still sways Nepal’s republic

One is an archipelago, the other is landlocked. But the Philippines and Nepal have a lot in common: both are disaster-prone, their economies dependent on overseas migrant workers, both went trhough Maoist insurrections that failed to replace a feudal order dominated by political dynasties. And both countries suffer from rampant corruption. Twelve days after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-new-normal" target="_blank">deadly protests toppled Nepal’s government</a> tens of thousands of Filipinos, many of them youth, also poured out into the streets demanding transparency and better government. Cars were set on fire, and more than 200 people were arrested, nearly half of them minors. The ‘Trillion Peso March Against Corruption’ was fuelled by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/21/world/asia/manila-philippines-rally-protest.html" target="_blank">anger over embezzlement</a> by politicians and their <a href="https://pcij.org/2025/08/31/5-reveals-from-the-flood-control-data/" target="_blank">crony contractors</a> estimated to top $17 billion in flood control infrastructure that were either never completed, or non-existent.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411108_85daed60ed5599f53235312e5b33703244bbac8640dbaf5161f90e5abe83f7eb.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025100411108_85daed60ed5599f53235312e5b33703244bbac8640dbaf5161f90e5abe83f7eb" data-rendition-name="original" width="2326" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Phillipines anti-corruption protests"> </figure>  “We learnt from Nepal and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/world/anime-protests-flag-moldova-nepal-indonesia-gaza.html" target="_blank">Indonesia</a> how to deploy social media as a tool to spread information, we are digital natives and well connected within the country and across borders,” said <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/yuri-lemana-68322b183/?originalSubdomain=ph" target="_blank">Yuri Lemana</a> of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FOIYouthPH/" target="_blank">Youth Alliance for Freedom of Information</a>, and a part of the GenZ protests.&nbsp; “The system has failed us, unemployment is on the rise, there are shrinking opportunities for youth, and we face environmental threats. There is a realisation that our future is at stake,” Lemana added. Online groups started highlighting bribery and kickbacks in July after President Ferdinand (Bongbong) Marcos Jr himself brought up corruption in the infrastructure budget in his annual address to the nation, and launched a probe.&nbsp; The protests gained traction after powerful visuals of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/international-spotlight-on-nepal" target="_blank">rallies in Indonesia and Nepal</a> circulated on digital platforms. Filipino journalists also exposed the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f0MFz3vmfE" target="_blank">high-flying lifestyle of contractors</a> involved in siphoning off the infrastructure budget.&nbsp; As in Nepal, the youth protests were joined in by various radical groups. In Manila they reportedly included supporters of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte who is currently on trial at the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/philippines/duterte" target="_blank">International Criminal Court (ICC)</a> in the Hague for extrajudicial killings during his ‘war on drugs’ 2011-2019. Duterte still has a lot of support, especially in the Filipino diaspora, for being tough on crime. Duterte was allied with Marcos in the 2022 elections, and his daughter Sara Duterte is currently vice-president. But the two families had a massive falling out, and the Supreme Court annulled the Lower House’s attempt to impeach the vice-president. This week in Manila, a remarkably well-informed Grab driver replayed TikTok videos of Kathmandu’s burning Parliament building to a passenger from Nepal. After his garment factory was driven out of business by cheap Chinese imports, he started driving a ride-hailing cab and was livid with successive governments not providing opportunities to ordinary people like him. Traffic was gridlocked because of flooded streets, and the driver vented out his anger: “Look at this. The streets are always flooded because of corruption. We should have done here what you did in Nepal.” Even before the protests, Senate President Francis Escudero and House Speaker Martin Romualdez had both resigned over the 'Floodgate Scandal'. Romualdez is Marcos’ cousin and is now said to be in Madrid, where his every movement is being tracked by Filipino diaspora in social media posts. The Independent Commission for Infrastructure has issued subpoenas to probe corruption in flood control projects. As in Nepal and Indonesia, much of the anger was over the offspring of politicians extravagantly flaunting their ill-gotten wealth on Instagram and TikTok. In the Philippines, the outrage is also over political clans passing on electoral seats to offspring. The 21 September protests were centred around Rizal Park and the EDSA Intersection in Manila — both symbolic for previous people’s movements against the Spanish colonialists and the 1986 uprising against the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos (father of the present president). “People here had seen what happened in Nepal, and were asking why we weren’t as angry as people there? Why not show our anger, too?” said one reporter who covered the protests. But, he added: “Let’s not be naive. It may have started with youth anger, but there were also people who were paid to infiltrate and instigate. We were also wary that things should not get out of hand like in Nepal.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411104_2c02ece56d29b2d8222433572d75c2dcc9bc2f3425d277a0056f393b521eecd0.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2025100411104_2c02ece56d29b2d8222433572d75c2dcc9bc2f3425d277a0056f393b521eecd0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1550" height="996" loading="lazy" alt="Phillipines youth protests"> <figcaption>An Instagram post of the protests in Manila with a comment relating it to the Nepal unrest two weeks earlier.</figcaption> </figure>  Seventy percent of Filipinos are Millennials and GenZ of voting age, and they were impatient with a rigged electoral system. In a clear parallel to what happened in Kathmandu two weeks earlier, radical groups, political rivals, and the general public furious with the system all joined in the protests. Catholic priests, people from all generations and professions had participated in the EDSA Uprising against Marcos in 1986. This time, it was the youth who took the lead. Joseph Francisco Ortega of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nationalyouthcommission/" target="_blank">Philippine National Youth Commission</a> said he understands the frustration among the youth that fuelled the unrest. The discontent is also because despite there being young legislators, they are either party-affiliated or scions of political dynasties. “If we can convince young politicians to do the right thing, then we have won half the battle,” Ortega said. “If we want to rebuild quickly and for the long term, we have to change the system from within. There is a constructive way to do this, while exercising the right to non-violent protest.” CROSS-POLLINATION The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w8monPKdrc" target="_blank">violence in Manila streets</a> on 21 September was nowhere near the scale of what happened in Kathmandu on 8-9 September, but both transcended GenZ to be an outlet for pan-generational rage much like 1986 in the Philippines.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004111012_e9cf9abfa8e35f3c074506dfdf94a262b5b311da6863cc2ec7bc3458a983df71.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20251004111012_e9cf9abfa8e35f3c074506dfdf94a262b5b311da6863cc2ec7bc3458a983df71" data-rendition-name="original" width="6566" height="4377" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal GenZ protests"> <figcaption>Angry crowd trouched Parliament building among others during the 8-9 September GenZ protests in Nepal. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>  “With due respect to the youth, it is not about age but about technology,” explained journalist Malou Mangahas of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/R2KRN/" target="_blank">Right To Know, Right Now Coalition</a> who participated in the 1986 uprising against Marcos. “We were all young and angry once. We are older, but still angry, and demanding good governance, transparency and accountability.” Just like in Nepal, young Filipinos rallying against corruption were also wary of infiltration, and it was clear from the anti-Marcos graffiti who the instigators of violence were. The GenZ were mainly wearing white while the pro-Duterte crowd <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w8monPKdrc" target="_blank">are seen in videos</a> in black.&nbsp; The minors seem to have just joined in the melee from their street-side settlements. Rights groups have called for their release, accusing police of rough interrogation and ‘red-tagging’ as Communist provocateurs. Much of the transboundary cross-pollination of anti-government protests across Asia last month used gaming characters, memes, and anime personas like the manga cartoon One Piece flag depicting a grinning skull in a straw hat which became an icon of youth protests.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411100_2d09f075663678fe92d4e4dcc631ee6ad1aa8a99996f4c4a3649e4bf4d85132f.png" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="2025100411100_2d09f075663678fe92d4e4dcc631ee6ad1aa8a99996f4c4a3649e4bf4d85132f" data-rendition-name="original" width="810" height="1208" loading="lazy" alt="One Piece"> <figcaption>The One Piece Flag flying during protests in Manila on 21 September. Photo:  CYBERNETICBOYLOL / WIKIPEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Yuri Lemana adapted a saying of gaming character <a href="https://www.warhammer.com/en-WW/shop/mechanicum-archmagos-prime-2024?srsltid=AfmBOorpYg8Zk5G5WiPUS9SXTampX969gMw79sP7ZzkE1G6H5pICR4PW" target="_blank">Archmagos Cortiko</a> in <a href="https://start-warhammer.com/" target="_blank">Warhammer 40,000</a>: “Prayer has its power, but fury also has its uses. If the government tries to hide things from us, we will find a way. Fury will find a way.” Kunda Dixit is the Publisher of Nepali Times, and was a foreign correspondent based in Manila in the early 1990s.

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