For South Asia, 2024 was an eventful year. A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/returning-to-the-cradle-of-democracy">pro-democracy</a> student uprising in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/people-power-removes-bangladesh-leader">Bangladesh ousted Sheikh Hasina </a>who took refuge in India. Sri Lankans voted in President Anura Dissanayake from a party that once waged a Marxist insurgency. &nbsp; In India, voters withheld whole-hearted support for the BJP’s divisive <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/religiously-following-politics">religious extremism</a>. But the defeat of the AAP in Delhi this month showed that the ruling party will go to length to influence <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/what-goes-on-in-nepal-s-elections">elections</a>. Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Maldives also had elections last year. And in Nepal, the two biggest parties, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-government-changes-again">Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML</a> ousted the Maoists and formed their own coalition government, appointing K P Oli as the country’s 14th Prime Minister in 15 years. All this is happening against the backdrop of a breakdown in the post-World War II global order, with the rise of populist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-migration">anti-migration climate</a> deniers undermining democracies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">Thinking the thinkable&nbsp;</a> Smaller South Asian nations now risk becoming geo-strategic battlegrounds for regional rivals India and China as they compete to fill the vacuum left by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trumpet-call">America’s retreat</a>. &nbsp; In the Maldives, relations with New Delhi soured after the election in 2024 of Mohamed Muizzu, seen to be pro-China. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/china-s-bri-will-ride-out-the-pandemic">Chinese ‘debt trap diplomacy’</a> is said to have contributed to Sri Lanka’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy">economic collapse</a>. In Nepal, China has openly supported unity among Communist parties, while India and the West tried to split them. The suspension of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">USAID</a> and MCC may lead to greater Chinese and Indian engagement (read: interference) in Kathmandu’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/civic-appeal-for-stability-and-governance">unstable politics</a>. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The Great Game, 2nd Half</a>, Sonia Awale&nbsp; In November the Stockholm-based International IDEA and the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) convened the ‘Democracy in South Asia Outlook Forum’ in Colombo to ponder the direction South Asian democracy might be heading in the next 15 years. Civil society, media, activists and academics brainstormed about four scenarios for 2040: Decline, Continuation, Disciplined Improvement and Transformation. The conclusions have been published in <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/imagining-democratic-futures-south-asia-foresight-report-2025.pdf">IDEA’s South Asia Democratic Futures report</a>, summarised here: Decline is a scenario in which democratic decay will mean governments and media will be completely under crony-capitalist control by 2040, and censorship will be the norm. AI will determine media content, elections will only reflect the politics of patronage. Irreversible ecological breakdown will exceed the capacity of governments to set right on their own. India-China tensions will spill over into conflict in South Asia.&nbsp; Continuation is business as usual in South Asia. Politics will be increasingly dominated by authoritarians and populists, governments will continue to rely on foreign financing, outmigration will accelerate, pollution will have rendered the region’s urban centres unliveable by 2040.&nbsp; Disciplined Improvement is a slightly better situation in which regional alliances, collaboration, civic engagement, and a new generation of leadership will respond more effectively to catastrophic weather events, mass migration and conflict. The polycrisis will prompt governments to work together by reviving regional cooperation through SAARC. Air quality will be so bad that India and Pakistan will be forced to cooperate and clean up. &nbsp;&nbsp; Transformation envisions South Asia as a centre of democratic progress and innovation by 2040, a ‘solarpunk’ society, where nature, technology, and social harmony coexist. The West’s anti-migration wave will reverse the brain drain, with youth-led action against the climate crisis. Regional cooperation, even rapprochement between India and China will fill the gap left by the declining influence of the West.&nbsp; Which way South Asia will go will depend on the leaders we elect or throw out in the coming decade. Policy reforms and action today will determine where we will be as a region in 2040. South Asia must not allow democracy to be dismantled, and trends in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal offer hope. But India’s gravitational pull, and how it deals with China that will determine the region’s fate.&nbsp; Recent aid cuts and the West’s apathy towards cleansing and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">conflict in Gaza and Ukraine</a> exposes the erosion of the moral values it says it espouses. Smaller South Asian countries like Nepal are on our own to deal with the crises in democracy, development and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/those-who-stay">climate</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The USAID and MCC cuts</a> are a sobering reminder that while India and China may step in, their support will also have strings attached. We have to put our own economic and political house in order, keep neighbours happy, and at arm’s length.&nbsp; Fifteen years is not too far away to determine our collective democratic destiny. Shristi Karki  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="South Asia democratic report NT"> </figure>

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South Asia 2040

With China, and now India, seeing setbacks in civil liberties, the Asia-Pacific was already not in good shape. Now, a new global survey shows that democracy in the region declined even further in the past year. <a href="https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/global-state-democracy-2023-new-checks-and-balances" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023: The New Checks and Balances</a> by the Stockholm-based thinktank <a href="https://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">International IDEA</a> says the most worrying trend in the world is of democratic backsliding and the erosion of constitutional freedoms.&nbsp; “Asia democracies, and aspiring democratisers in the more authoritarian states, still face challenges in revitalising institutions and in preventing further democratic decline,” said Seema Shah, Head of International IDEA's Democracy Assessment Unit during the <a href="https://www.idea.int/events/asia-and-pacific-launch-global-state-democracy-2023?fbclid=IwAR3UY-1y1sT0srM1YdDLY8VS7Q_DoPCKP24jCtH8dULBv4_u98XbDik5WZk" target="_blank">Asia-Pacific launch of the 2023 report in Bangkok on 23 November</a>. Although across the board democratic decline witnessed by countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade appears to have tapered off, the report says that the freedom of press score for the region is now at 2001 levels. Most countries in the region remain below the global average for representation, rule of law and human rights. Aside from entrenched authoritarian regimes like Laos, China and Vietnam, there have been steep declines in democracy indices in Burma and Afghanistan due to conflict and state collapse. However, even countries with higher democracy rankings like like Australia, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, India and Taiwan saw significant declines in press freedom. The report singles out Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal and Thailand as making progress in democratic participation with high turnout in recent elections, which were mostly free and fair.&nbsp; The report does not rank countries by just regime type or one value for quality of democracy, but relies on IDEA’s Democracy Tracker to monitor four core categories of democratic performance: public participation, representative government, respect for human rights and rule of law.&nbsp; Indeed, while democracy is notoriously difficult to quantify and rank, the categories do a better job in monitoring change. For example, representation is an aggregate measure of the credibility of the electoral process, and how free, fair, inclusive they are, give us a good idea of the quality of democracy in that country.&nbsp; A high participation score tells us how involved citizens are in exercising democracy during and between elections. Rule of law rankings are indicators of judicial independence and fairness, and human rights indices measure respect for civil liberties and social equality. The report gives Nepal higher marks in political participation in 2022, with the country ranked 69th out of 173 states — up four points compared to the previous year, and among the better performers among Asian countries. For comparison, India ranks 83rd, and it has fallen 17 points from its 2017 score.&nbsp; Even so, rising up the country rankings does not necessarily mean Nepal did better in the past year — it could just mean that other countries in the region faced larger declines in democracy indicators. On representation, too, Nepal is 61st, up 18 points since 2017. On human rights, Nepal is ranked 71st, and climbed 3 three points from the previous year. However, for rule of law Nepal is 94th among countries, having fallen 21 points since 2017.&nbsp; The IDEA report notes that Nepal has seen a five-year decline in effective Parliament, which was dissolved by Prime Minister K P Oli due to a power struggle in 2021 and reinstated by the Supreme Court. ‘Political coalitions have continued to be unstable since the November 2022 elections … and the primary political opposition appeared more interested in replacing the governing coalition partners than providing parliamentary oversight,’ the report’s summary for Nepal concludes.&nbsp; The survey has taken note of the erosion of civil liberties and press freedom in neighbouring India, where opposition party leaders have been harassed in the courts and the media. Amnesty International was forced to close its office in 2020 after its accounts were frozen, and raided the offices of the BBC and other media outlets.&nbsp; In India, Nepal and other countries the report cites ‘countervailing institutions’ defending against democratic decay by checking concentration of executive power through the court system, civil society activism, anti-corruption agencies, and the media. There was also community mobilisation for voting, as happened in this year’s elections in Thailand. It is clear from the example of Nepal and other politically unstable countries that an over-reliance on the court system can undermine or even destabilise the executive or legislature. Anti-corruption bureaus can be misused for political witch-hunts, and civil society can be as politically polarised as the parties. In the Pacific and South Asia, global and regional geopolitical rivalries also exert external pressure on democracies. In this respect, countries like Nepal that had to traditionally balance off two giant neighbours (India, China) now also have to factor in the United States. Debt repayment and development assistance are often used as carrots and sticks by world powers to influence domestic politics. The only way developing countries like Nepal can deal with this would be by strengthening domestic accountability and regional cooperation as a stabilising and democratic counterweight.&nbsp; Moontae Jeong in Bangkok  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457" data-rendition-name="original" width="1194" height="1596" loading="lazy" alt="State of Democracy"> </figure>  <a href="https://cdn.sanity.io/files/2e5hi812/production/f7b6fb692e1475af3927aff774dbc93f50771ba9.pdf" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023</a> International IDEA Stockholm 2023 <a href="http://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">www.idea.int</a>

Stemming Asia’s democratic decay

The sudden and massive flood on the Bhote Kosi early Tuesday morning washed away a strategic bridge on Nepal’s main border crossing with China for trade, tourists and pilgrims. Slurry from the nearly 10m high debris flow left 9 dead and 20 missing, 12 of them Nepalis and six Chinese nationals, and 150 others were rescued by helicopter.&nbsp; Four <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">hydropower plants</a> Rasuwagadi, Trisuli III, Trisuli, &nbsp;Benighat and the Trisuli substation sustained heavy damage, knocking &nbsp;out 230MW of Nepal’s power supply – approximately 8% of the total. Over 100 cargo trucks and new electric vehicles parked at &nbsp;Timure Dry Port were swept away. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mapping-kangchenjunga-glacial-flood-risk">Mapping Kangchenjung glacial flood risk</a>, Gabe Allen Officials had initially thought &nbsp;the Bhote Kosi had flooded due to heavy rain in Tibet. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) now say a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)</a> is likely.&nbsp; NDRRMA spokesperson Suresh Sunar said it was too early to tell which one, but the flood was most likely the result of one of the glacial lakes in Tibet. Bhote Kosi begins on the north slope of the Ganesh Himal near the Nepal-China border, and its tributary Lende drains the catchment area north of Langtang. The slurry flood on Tuesday was on the Lende (map).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250709110720_bbc99c5f3e3d61a3d340892e0273fee3605a8d334a2beb354126137bcf0c8d27.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250709110720_bbc99c5f3e3d61a3d340892e0273fee3605a8d334a2beb354126137bcf0c8d27" data-rendition-name="original" width="629" height="759" loading="lazy" alt="Bhote Kosi flood map"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250709110720_39e2f574ff8c12cecda2e5a999d2ba8a0310f599f6b2261dcad7dd43f94df2a1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250709110720_39e2f574ff8c12cecda2e5a999d2ba8a0310f599f6b2261dcad7dd43f94df2a1" data-rendition-name="original" width="997" height="613" loading="lazy" alt="Bhote Kosi flood map"> </figure>  “Preliminary study suggest that the disaster was not caused by rain in Tibet, but by a glacial lake burst, or another accident,” said Kamal Ram Joshi of the DHM. The level of water at a self-monitoring station in Timure in Rasuwa increased by 3.5m at 3:10AM on Tuesday morning while 13km downstream in Syabrubesi, the level rose by 3.65m at 3:30AM. The same station recorded 5.37m ten minutes later, after which it stopped giving a reading, possibly because the station was also washed away. The flood reached <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/neither-side-lost-both-sides-won">Betrawati</a> by 5AM, and some of the debris flow reached Mugling during Tuesday. DHM’s Flood Forecasting Division noted that there was no major precipitation in the Bhote Kosi watershed in Nepal and China in the 24 hours preceding the flood.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100724_313a684b65fc5317064779e47409a40f2bbce2c0c84db995e7f8fc6e1c142105.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250708100724_313a684b65fc5317064779e47409a40f2bbce2c0c84db995e7f8fc6e1c142105" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="1662" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood"> <figcaption>The Miteri bridge before it was swept away by the flood in Bhotekosi on the Nepal-China border. Photo: SUBASH DHUNGANA / RSS</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100732_ec43f13bae979f7b61bc0db939db4157dc93d3f0767ed527f564bd5c3d12be27.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250708100732_ec43f13bae979f7b61bc0db939db4157dc93d3f0767ed527f564bd5c3d12be27" data-rendition-name="original" width="720" height="432" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood NT 2"> <figcaption>The bridge after the flood.</figcaption> </figure>  On Wednesday, several remote-sensing experts using Copernicus &nbsp;satellite images pinpointed the cause of the flood to Purepu Cangbu where supraglacial ponds had merged in June to form a large lake which did not burst, but overflowed &nbsp;and found a channel through englacial conduits to the headwaters of the Lende. The river meets the Bhote Kosi at the Nepal-China checkpoint in Rasuwa.&nbsp; “Analysis of weather forecasts and satellite data shows the Tibet region did not receive enough rain to cause this scale of flooding,” explained Binod Pokharel, associate professor of hydrology and meteorology at Tribhuvan University. “The flood could have been caused by a GLOF."&nbsp; Two weeks ago, Chinese officials had reportedly warned the Rasuwa District Administration in Nepal to be on high alert for floods on rivers that originate in Tibet. It could be that Chinese scientists had observed the alarming<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-crisis-is-a-water-crisis-in-the-himalaya"> expansion of glacial lakes</a> in the Lende and Bhote Kosi catchments. If that was the case, it is an example of the kind of trans-boundary forewarning that would be critical to save lives in future.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708100736_1710142917b30d4f85b343ed52743554d723db918c708f0bade8a0491ba999b2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250708100736_1710142917b30d4f85b343ed52743554d723db918c708f0bade8a0491ba999b2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1001" height="500" loading="lazy" alt="Bhotekosi flood"> </figure>  However, Rasuwa’s Assistant Chief District Officer Dhruv Prasad Adhikari seems to have no knowledge of any warning from the Chinese side, either formally or informally. &nbsp; “The Chinese Embassy has said the cause of the flood is unknown that it will coordinate with Nepal to find the cause," Adhikari told us. Chinese Ambassador Chen Song and Prime Minister Oli visited the border on Tuesday (pictured). &nbsp; The sharing of real-time trans-boundary rainfall and river flow data would be crucial in early warning about the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mapping-kangchenjunga-glacial-flood-risk">risk and consequences of GLOFs</a> to reduce human and material loss. But Nepali officials say China has been reluctant to share weather-related information and data not just in this disaster, but in the past as well. “There is no mechanism or system in place for us to obtain hydrological and meteorological data of the Tibetan region,” said DHM Director General Joshi. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/for-destruction-ice-is-also-great-and-will-suffice">Himalaya is melting twice as fast as the rest of the world</a> due to a phenomenon called ‘elevation dependent warming’, and receding glaciers have led to an increasing number of transboundary GLOFs.&nbsp; According to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">a 2018 ICIMOD study</a>, of the 47 of the most dangerous lakes that threaten Nepal, 25 are on glaciers in China, 21 in Nepal and one in India. Many of these glaciers are expanding rapidly due to global warming. One of the authors of the report, glacial lake expert Samjwal Bajracharya, says that the report was prepared based on data from 2015. But climate change has accelerated since then. Moreover, seismic activity has further destabilises the landscape, adding to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting">GLOF risk</a>.&nbsp; “Considering the rapid rate of snowmelt and consequent increase in size of Himalayan glaciers, studies should be conducted every year, and a monitoring system should be set up on the glaciers,” says Bajracharya. “However, no studies have been conducted in the Himalaya in a decade, which has been our biggest weakness.” &nbsp;

Rasuwa flood likely a GLOF

Recent outrage in Sikkim over an Indian Army expedition climbing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga">Kangchenjunga</a>, the world’s third-highest peak, has spiked attention to the need to balance mountaineering jobs with indigenous reverence for sacred landmarks. Kangchenjunga (8,586m) is not a peak as much as it is a mountain range with 16 peaks above 7,000m on the border between India and Nepal -- the word itself means ‘five treasures of the snows’ in Tibetan. Some of the highest prominences like Kangchenjunga West and Kangbachen are in Nepal, while the Main, Central and South Peaks are on the border. Climbing the peak from the Indian side has been banned since 2001 because the indigenous Lepcha community there regard the mountain as the abode of Dzoe-nga, the patron deity of Sikkim, which was an independent Himalayan Kingdom until it was annexed by India in 1975.&nbsp; Buddhists in Sikkim say their saint, Padmasambhava, recognised the mountain as a protective spirit. The state has declared the base of the mountain Kangchenjunga National Park, which covers an area one-third of Sikkim. ‘The act of scaling this sacred peak is not only a matter of serious concern but also a violation of both the prevailing legal provisions and the deeply held religious beliefs of the people of Sikkim,’ read a letter from Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang (Golay) to Amit Shah, India’s Minister of Home Affairs and Cooperation.&nbsp; Tamang continued: ‘We further request Your Honour to take up the issue with the Government of Nepal to ensure that no future expeditions are permitted on the sacred mountain, in deference to the deeply held beliefs and cultural values of the people of Sikkim.’ Kangchenjunga was climbed for the first time exactly 70 years ago by a British team who told King Tashi Namgyal, the Choegyal of Sikkim, that they would not set foot on the summit. Since then, there have been about 532 successful climbs of the peaks and 52 have died while trying.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1782" height="1178" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Indigenous communities in Sikkim held purification ceremonies following the Indian expedition to Kangchenjunga. Photo: THE VOICE OF SIKKIM / FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-climbing-season-2025-s4abrxny">This spring climbing season</a> alone, there were 70 climbing permits for foreigners issued for Kangchenjunga by the Nepal government, and made it to the top while one French climber died.&nbsp; One of the expeditions this year was an Indian Army team led by Col Ranveer Jamwal, who has summited the highest peaks on all seven continents, and Mt Everest thrice. Jamwal’s team was on the final leg of a ‘<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/nimas-summits-mt-kangchenjunga-concludes-historic-har-shikhar-tiranga-mission-successfully/articleshow/121341315.cms?from=mdr">Har Shikhar Tiranga</a>’ (The Tricolour on Every Peak) mission to plant the Indian flag at the highest points of each of India’s 28 states. Kanchenjunga was the last peak they had left, and the hardest, but the expedition put five climbers on the summit. What seems to have incensed the Sikkimese is that while it has banned climbing the mountain from its side, it was an Indian military expedition that went to Nepal to climb the mountain. After news broke of the climb in May, the Sikkim Indigenous Lepcha Tribal Association asked people to observe purification ceremonies in temples across the state. Mayalmit Lepcha of the association acknowledged that the Sikkim government was also partly at fault: “I don’t think such an expedition could have gone forward without the state government being informed, so it could have done something to intervene. It shows weakness. What’s done is done, all we can do is carry out these sanctification ceremonies.”&nbsp; In 2000, one year before Sikkim’s ban, the state allowed an Austrian team to attempt Kanchenjunga’s northeast face for a fee of $20,000, on agreement that they would stop 10m before the summit. Despite this, there was outrage over the expedition on the grounds that it violated Indian laws regarding the defiling of religious sites and Sikkim’s rights to maintain its culture after merging with India. The Indian Army expedition was also seen to have circumvented Sikkim’s law and violated religious sensibilities by going through Nepal. While the team may have thought they were respecting Sikkim’s beliefs by finding a way to complete the mission, the people of Sikkim saw it as defilement.&nbsp; The somber mood of the Sikkim people at the ritual contrasts sharply with Jamwal’s sense of accomplishment. “Without a doubt, the most difficult summit of my life,” he told reporters after the climb. “It tested every ounce of our will.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157" data-rendition-name="original" width="787" height="377" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Prayer flags along the Sikkim-Kangchenjunga trekking route. Photo: TREKKINGININDIA.COM</figcaption> </figure>  The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-nims-purja">controversial Nepali-British mountaineer Nirmal Purja</a> was also on Kangchenjunga this spring the mountain, on a mission to summit all 14 8,000m peaks for a third time. He echoed Jamwal about the tough conditions: “The conditions above camp were extremely tough, with deep snow and challenging terrain—more crevasses than usual.” Nepal’s government has not said anything publicly, but it is unlikely that it will ban climbing on Kangchenjunga, since it is becoming popular with expeditions because of its technical challenges, and overcrowding on Mt Everest. Nepal does have bans in place for some of its mountains out of respect for local beliefs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/to-open-machapuchre-for-mountaineering-or-not">Mt Machapuchre</a> (6,990m) the imposing pyramid that looms over Pokhara, for example, is seen as an icon of purity by the Gurung people and a symbol of Vishnu by the Hindu communities who live at its base. A strict climbing ban has been in place since 1957, when a British expedition led by Col Jimmy Roberts stopped 45m short of the summit – either because the last bit was too difficult or out of deference to local sentiments.&nbsp; Khumbila that stands above Namche Bazar is only 5,761m high, but like Kanchenjunga is considered the protector deity of the Sherpa people. Gauri Shankar on the Nepal-China border, called Chomo Tseringma by the local community, was off-limits between 1965 and 1979 due to its association with Lord Shiva and Gauri, his consort. Although expeditions are now allowed, there are not too many takers. In Tibet, climbing Mount Kailash is prohibited by the Chinese government because it revered by the Hindus, Buddhists and followers of the Bon faith. Even Mt Everest is regarded as sacred, and its Sherpa name is Chomolungma, Goddess Mother of the Earth.&nbsp; Economically, climbs on Kanchenjunga bring in decent revenue. This climbing season, the 41 permits, at $1,800 each, brought in $73,800. This is somewhat comparable to Makalu, Lhotse, and Annapurna I, but these numbers are dwarfed by the $4 million in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-everest-industry">Everest permits</a>. Revenue from Kanchenjunga climbing permits is something Nepal could potentially forgo if necessary, but the expeditions also provide jobs to hundreds of high altitude guides, porters, base camp support staff and other logistical costs.&nbsp; As the third highest mountain in the world and the tallest in India, there will always be significant motivation to climb it from the Nepal side, especially as climbers are drawn by the technical climbing at high altitude.

Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb?

In 2023, northern India suffered record-breaking heat. In 2024, it broke its own record. In 2025, the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Nepal Tarai suffered a prolonged pre-monsoon heat wave and humidity, forcing closure of schools and workplaces. This week, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/europe-heat-wave-intensifies-as-fresh-warnings-issued/live-73108302">southern Europe is suffering the worst heat wave</a> since temperature records began. Football matches, tennis tournaments have been affected, and tourist sites have been closed off. Qatar has ordered a midday work curfew for Nepali and other migrant workers are the maximum temperature this week touched 45°C.&nbsp; Kathmandu Valley experienced its highest temperature in 25 years in May 2024 at 35.3°C. This year, the maximum temperature exceeded 30°C on many days — heat that till a decade ago would be considered unusual. Rains in early June also meant that towns in the mountains sweltered under high heat plus humidity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1935" height="801" loading="lazy" alt="maximum average temperature in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: DHM</figcaption> </figure>  Measuring just temperature does not give a true picture of how hot it is. When humidity is factored in, the heat index this summer has been much higher in northern India and Nepal. Also, the hotter the air temperature the higher the concentration of water vapour in it. “We feel it is getting hotter, and our statistics back that up,” says Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issued two heat wave warnings this year, compared to 11 last year. “We need more research to analyse how humidity is make this situation worse.” <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-faces-alarming-30-rise-in-moist-heat-stress-over-40-years-affecting-wide-swath-of-country-imd-study/articleshow/109376863.cms?from=mdr">A recent analysis</a> by the Indian Meteorological Department has found that heat stress in that country has increased by nearly 30% over the past 40 years. Similarly, India’s Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) noted that cities like Delhi, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and Lucknow have experienced a 6-9% rise in relative humidity in the last decade.&nbsp; It also states that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/majority-indian-districts-face-high-heatwave-risk-study-shows-2025-05-20/#:~:text=%22About%2057%20per%20cent%20of,usual%20number%20of%20heatwave%20days.">60% of Indian districts</a>, home to three-quarters of the country’s 1.3 billion people face a high to very high risk from extreme heat, with rising night-time temperatures and humidity. The heat index is also called ‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">wet-bulb temperature</a>’ and is a measure of how hot the human body feels when humidity levels are also high — usually much hotter than the recorded temperature. For example, a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C is considered the maximum limit of heat and humidity that humans can handle, beyond which the body cannot cool by perspiration, leading to death. One indicator of increasing humidity is a rise in average minimum temperature, and Nepal recorded the highest figure since 1981 last year, with a peak of 15.8°C. Higher minimum temperature denotes warmer nights, which in turn is an indication of heat stress caused by increasing humidity, which in turn is a result of global warming. Aside from higher average temperatures worldwide this year, what makes heat and humidity more unbearable is that cities are always hotter than their surroundings. This is due to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/preparing-for-kathmandu-s-heat-waves">urban heat island (UHI) effect</a> – for example the temperature inside Kathmandu’s Ring Road can be hotter by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/what-are-heat-islands">up to 4°C during the daytime and by 1 to 3°C in the evening</a> compared to the outskirts. “Climate change is one reason for rising temperature, but there are other factors like increased heat in urban spaces due to concrete buildings and infrastructure, emissions from vehicles, industries, and home appliances,” explains urban planner Bhushan Tuladhar. He adds: “Much of this comes down to how we have developed our cities, not just our roads and buildings but also our water system, waste management, culture and customs as well as economy.” There is a feedback loop at work: as it gets hotter, more energy is used for fans, coolers, and air-conditioners which in turn add to the urban heat bubble. The way to reduce the UHI effect is to have more parks, tree-lined streets and water bodies to cool cities down.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212095525002093">A recent study published in the journal Urban Climate</a> by Nepali researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Tribhuvan University, University of Groningen, etc showed that even within Kathmandu, urban forests cooled neighbourhoods by as much as 1.2°C while ponds reduced the temperature by up to 0.85°C compared to nearby houses.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2580" height="1038" loading="lazy" alt="urban heat island in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: URBAN CLIMATE et al.</figcaption> </figure>  ‘Our results demonstrate that blue-green spaces provide significant cooling benefits across the Kathmandu Valley, with distinct patterns by type, size, design, and urban context,’ concluded the paper, whose lead author is Saurav Bhattarai at Jackson State University in the United States. The old towns in Kathmandu Valley with traditional brick and tile architecture, ponds and trees managed hot summers better. Compact houses around a courtyard gave people just the right amount of sunlight, and use of clay mortar and bricks insulated houses in winter while cooling them in summer. There were open spaces, fertile land along the floodplains for farming, and brick pavements that allowed for seepage. “Our cities were planned taking nature into account,” says Sangeeta Singh, a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering. “Kathmandu Valley is now built up, but we can still reintegrate blue-blue spaces into town planning with vertical gardening, urban forestry, using local material and harvesting rainwater.”&nbsp; Kathmandu’s municipalities have by-laws controlling building design and structure, but strict enforcement of land use and zoning are missing. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the urban poor who may not have access to fans or air-conditioners, exacerbating poverty.&nbsp; Cities in the plains have it even worse. As heat and humidity rise simultaneously, it could <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/garmi-se-behal-chalo-nepal">reverse the current mass migration</a> of people from the mountains to the Tarai, where 53% of Nepal’s population lives. <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/92fbbbc6180238e18e7b239fad83e38a-0280032024/original/12-DHNT-Temperature-poverty-inequality-September-2024.pdf">A World Bank study</a> put the cost of a 1°C rise in temperature at 17.1% increase in poverty globally. Estimates put the total number of urban poor in developing countries exposed to the worst heat extremes at 26 million presently, this number is bound to grow to 215 million by mid-century, an over eight-fold increase. Meanwhile, 489,000 health-related deaths occur each year, 45% of them in Asia alone. “Heat has to be seen from a class perspective,” says Singh. “Those with money can afford gadgets and appliances to keep their homes and offices cool, but not day labourers or poor families living in cramped housing with poor ventilation.” Climate breakdown is going to widen the class divide in cities, as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">summers become unliveable</a>. Says Singh: “We need policy intervention to address this class injustice. Our building by-laws and new town development must urgently integrate climate and energy efficiency elements.”

In the heat of the moment

The debate about who is less accountable to the public: politicians or bureaucrats is as old as Nepal’s democracy itself.
Some blame politicians for being beholden to the businessmen who finance their electoral campaigns, and are forced to return the favour with contracts and kickbacks when in power.&nbsp;
Others say it is civil servants who are neither civil nor servants, and know the inner workings of the system to exploit loopholes – they then teach ministers, MPs, mayors, or ward chairs which juicy projects can be squeezed. And everyone gets their share.
In reality, it is probably not a case of either, or. Both have their hands deep in the honey pot. Corruption is now such a given that yet another exposé in the mainstream press, like the latest visit-visa scam, does not raise eyebrows anymore.
We may have to edit Lord Acton’s famous quote to say that in Nepal we do not even need absolute power to corrupt absolutely. The ruling cartel has divvied up the spoils, so that no one ever faces charges. The three parties all know about the skeletons rattling in each other’s closets, and they cancel each other out.
Politicians and bureaucrats get all the blame for taking bribes, but what of the givers of bribes? In this crony capitalism, businesses invariably need political patrons in an elaborate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">national network of give-and-take</a>.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">Politicians and businesses work hand-in-glove</a> so that conflict of interest in contracts, insider trading, cartelling, and non-performing assets of banks become the norm. Our survey after the 2017 local election showed that out of the 753 newly-elected local government chairs, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/elected-contractors" target="_blank">nearly 300 were contractors</a> involved in sand-mining, quarrying, or transportation syndicates.
Nepal’s tycoons have discovered that instead of donating to election war chests of politicians, it is a much surer return on investment to spend the money to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal" target="_blank">become legislators and politicians themselves</a>.
In democracies, there are checks and balances to control corruption when it becomes endemic. The Nepal Police and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are supposed to do the detective work without political interference. The courts are required to be independent in dispensing justice and punishing crooks.
But the less said about the judiciary the better. A writ petition in the Supreme Court last week accused our sister magazine <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> of contempt of court for two stories: one about how high courts have been overturning a majority of verdicts of district courts in cases of rape, and another about the Biratnagar High Court clearing a self-proclaimed holy man, Krishna Bahadur Giri, of rape despite police presenting physical evidence.
The doctrine of the separation of powers stipulates that it is when the other three pillars in a democracy are compromised that the role of the free press becomes even more vital. The world over, as soon as populist autocrats are elected to the executive, their first order of business is to co-opt the legislature and the judiciary. Then they buy off, intimidate, or neutralise the media with Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPP).
Nepal’s officialdom seems to be taking midnight Zoom lessons from other despots on how to gag the media. Last month, popular talk show host Dil Bhushan Pathak was served an arrest warrant by the Kathmandu District Court for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CntsnTrtG8" target="_blank">a YouTube explainer</a> about the alleged involvement of the son of Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana in a reported purchase of Kathmandu’s Hilton Hotel.
The Lalitpur District Court ruled that Pathak could not be arrested without fair trial, but this week the Kathmandu District Court filed another case against the journalist based on a complaint by the Cyber Bureau, and put him on a fugitive list.&nbsp;
Without going into the veracity of Pathak’s explainer, it is deeply problematic that the Electronic Transaction Act has been invoked – proof that politicians are getting the courts and investigating agencies to make an example of a high profile journalist.&nbsp;
The intention is to silence media investigations into the fake refugee scandal in which the main partner in the ruling coalition is implicated, and in which one of its former home ministers was jailed last year.
The Kathmandu High Court has been mysteriously active in targeting journalists these days. <a href="https://bizmandu.com/" target="_blank">Bizmandu</a> and <a href="https://nepalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">Nepalkhabar</a> were served a notice last month <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-freedom-after-expression-y4inku06" target="_blank">to withdraw a story they did</a> on the Chair of the <a href="https://www.sebon.gov.np/" target="_blank">Security and Exchange Board of Nepal (SEBON</a>) Santosh Narayan Shrestha allegedly demanding kickbacks from hydropower investors.&nbsp;
Incredibly, the court even asked the two portals not to report on the subject anymore – a ruling so absurd that the Patan High Court overturned it a week later.&nbsp;
The allegations against Shrestha were made in a public meeting of the <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN)</a>, and MPs demanded a <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/parliament-demands-probe-into-sebon-chairman-over-alleged-commission-demand-40-32.html" target="_blank">Parliament inquiry</a> into the regulator. <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/144523/santosh-narayan-shrestha" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> reported this week that while Shrestha was reportedly demanding commissions from private investors for IPOs, he cleared primary share sales in Bajhang’s 10.75MW <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Bungal Hydro</a> in which his family members have investments, company records show.
And then just on Monday, bureaucrats hoodwinked MPs by deleting references in a bill requiring a two-year ‘cooling off’ period under which retiring civil servants could be barred from holding constitutional positions for two years.
The contest for who is more corrupt: bureauacrats, politicians, or the private sector is on.
Kunda Dixit

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