For South Asia, 2024 was an eventful year. A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/returning-to-the-cradle-of-democracy">pro-democracy</a> student uprising in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/people-power-removes-bangladesh-leader">Bangladesh ousted Sheikh Hasina </a>who took refuge in India. Sri Lankans voted in President Anura Dissanayake from a party that once waged a Marxist insurgency. &nbsp; In India, voters withheld whole-hearted support for the BJP’s divisive <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/religiously-following-politics">religious extremism</a>. But the defeat of the AAP in Delhi this month showed that the ruling party will go to length to influence <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/what-goes-on-in-nepal-s-elections">elections</a>. Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Maldives also had elections last year. And in Nepal, the two biggest parties, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-government-changes-again">Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML</a> ousted the Maoists and formed their own coalition government, appointing K P Oli as the country’s 14th Prime Minister in 15 years. All this is happening against the backdrop of a breakdown in the post-World War II global order, with the rise of populist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-migration">anti-migration climate</a> deniers undermining democracies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">Thinking the thinkable&nbsp;</a> Smaller South Asian nations now risk becoming geo-strategic battlegrounds for regional rivals India and China as they compete to fill the vacuum left by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trumpet-call">America’s retreat</a>. &nbsp; In the Maldives, relations with New Delhi soured after the election in 2024 of Mohamed Muizzu, seen to be pro-China. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/china-s-bri-will-ride-out-the-pandemic">Chinese ‘debt trap diplomacy’</a> is said to have contributed to Sri Lanka’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy">economic collapse</a>. In Nepal, China has openly supported unity among Communist parties, while India and the West tried to split them. The suspension of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">USAID</a> and MCC may lead to greater Chinese and Indian engagement (read: interference) in Kathmandu’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/civic-appeal-for-stability-and-governance">unstable politics</a>. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The Great Game, 2nd Half</a>, Sonia Awale&nbsp; In November the Stockholm-based International IDEA and the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) convened the ‘Democracy in South Asia Outlook Forum’ in Colombo to ponder the direction South Asian democracy might be heading in the next 15 years. Civil society, media, activists and academics brainstormed about four scenarios for 2040: Decline, Continuation, Disciplined Improvement and Transformation. The conclusions have been published in <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/imagining-democratic-futures-south-asia-foresight-report-2025.pdf">IDEA’s South Asia Democratic Futures report</a>, summarised here: Decline is a scenario in which democratic decay will mean governments and media will be completely under crony-capitalist control by 2040, and censorship will be the norm. AI will determine media content, elections will only reflect the politics of patronage. Irreversible ecological breakdown will exceed the capacity of governments to set right on their own. India-China tensions will spill over into conflict in South Asia.&nbsp; Continuation is business as usual in South Asia. Politics will be increasingly dominated by authoritarians and populists, governments will continue to rely on foreign financing, outmigration will accelerate, pollution will have rendered the region’s urban centres unliveable by 2040.&nbsp; Disciplined Improvement is a slightly better situation in which regional alliances, collaboration, civic engagement, and a new generation of leadership will respond more effectively to catastrophic weather events, mass migration and conflict. The polycrisis will prompt governments to work together by reviving regional cooperation through SAARC. Air quality will be so bad that India and Pakistan will be forced to cooperate and clean up. &nbsp;&nbsp; Transformation envisions South Asia as a centre of democratic progress and innovation by 2040, a ‘solarpunk’ society, where nature, technology, and social harmony coexist. The West’s anti-migration wave will reverse the brain drain, with youth-led action against the climate crisis. Regional cooperation, even rapprochement between India and China will fill the gap left by the declining influence of the West.&nbsp; Which way South Asia will go will depend on the leaders we elect or throw out in the coming decade. Policy reforms and action today will determine where we will be as a region in 2040. South Asia must not allow democracy to be dismantled, and trends in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal offer hope. But India’s gravitational pull, and how it deals with China that will determine the region’s fate.&nbsp; Recent aid cuts and the West’s apathy towards cleansing and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">conflict in Gaza and Ukraine</a> exposes the erosion of the moral values it says it espouses. Smaller South Asian countries like Nepal are on our own to deal with the crises in democracy, development and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/those-who-stay">climate</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The USAID and MCC cuts</a> are a sobering reminder that while India and China may step in, their support will also have strings attached. We have to put our own economic and political house in order, keep neighbours happy, and at arm’s length.&nbsp; Fifteen years is not too far away to determine our collective democratic destiny. Shristi Karki  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="South Asia democratic report NT"> </figure>

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South Asia 2040

With China, and now India, seeing setbacks in civil liberties, the Asia-Pacific was already not in good shape. Now, a new global survey shows that democracy in the region declined even further in the past year. <a href="https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/global-state-democracy-2023-new-checks-and-balances" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023: The New Checks and Balances</a> by the Stockholm-based thinktank <a href="https://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">International IDEA</a> says the most worrying trend in the world is of democratic backsliding and the erosion of constitutional freedoms.&nbsp; “Asia democracies, and aspiring democratisers in the more authoritarian states, still face challenges in revitalising institutions and in preventing further democratic decline,” said Seema Shah, Head of International IDEA's Democracy Assessment Unit during the <a href="https://www.idea.int/events/asia-and-pacific-launch-global-state-democracy-2023?fbclid=IwAR3UY-1y1sT0srM1YdDLY8VS7Q_DoPCKP24jCtH8dULBv4_u98XbDik5WZk" target="_blank">Asia-Pacific launch of the 2023 report in Bangkok on 23 November</a>. Although across the board democratic decline witnessed by countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade appears to have tapered off, the report says that the freedom of press score for the region is now at 2001 levels. Most countries in the region remain below the global average for representation, rule of law and human rights. Aside from entrenched authoritarian regimes like Laos, China and Vietnam, there have been steep declines in democracy indices in Burma and Afghanistan due to conflict and state collapse. However, even countries with higher democracy rankings like like Australia, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, India and Taiwan saw significant declines in press freedom. The report singles out Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal and Thailand as making progress in democratic participation with high turnout in recent elections, which were mostly free and fair.&nbsp; The report does not rank countries by just regime type or one value for quality of democracy, but relies on IDEA’s Democracy Tracker to monitor four core categories of democratic performance: public participation, representative government, respect for human rights and rule of law.&nbsp; Indeed, while democracy is notoriously difficult to quantify and rank, the categories do a better job in monitoring change. For example, representation is an aggregate measure of the credibility of the electoral process, and how free, fair, inclusive they are, give us a good idea of the quality of democracy in that country.&nbsp; A high participation score tells us how involved citizens are in exercising democracy during and between elections. Rule of law rankings are indicators of judicial independence and fairness, and human rights indices measure respect for civil liberties and social equality. The report gives Nepal higher marks in political participation in 2022, with the country ranked 69th out of 173 states — up four points compared to the previous year, and among the better performers among Asian countries. For comparison, India ranks 83rd, and it has fallen 17 points from its 2017 score.&nbsp; Even so, rising up the country rankings does not necessarily mean Nepal did better in the past year — it could just mean that other countries in the region faced larger declines in democracy indicators. On representation, too, Nepal is 61st, up 18 points since 2017. On human rights, Nepal is ranked 71st, and climbed 3 three points from the previous year. However, for rule of law Nepal is 94th among countries, having fallen 21 points since 2017.&nbsp; The IDEA report notes that Nepal has seen a five-year decline in effective Parliament, which was dissolved by Prime Minister K P Oli due to a power struggle in 2021 and reinstated by the Supreme Court. ‘Political coalitions have continued to be unstable since the November 2022 elections … and the primary political opposition appeared more interested in replacing the governing coalition partners than providing parliamentary oversight,’ the report’s summary for Nepal concludes.&nbsp; The survey has taken note of the erosion of civil liberties and press freedom in neighbouring India, where opposition party leaders have been harassed in the courts and the media. Amnesty International was forced to close its office in 2020 after its accounts were frozen, and raided the offices of the BBC and other media outlets.&nbsp; In India, Nepal and other countries the report cites ‘countervailing institutions’ defending against democratic decay by checking concentration of executive power through the court system, civil society activism, anti-corruption agencies, and the media. There was also community mobilisation for voting, as happened in this year’s elections in Thailand. It is clear from the example of Nepal and other politically unstable countries that an over-reliance on the court system can undermine or even destabilise the executive or legislature. Anti-corruption bureaus can be misused for political witch-hunts, and civil society can be as politically polarised as the parties. In the Pacific and South Asia, global and regional geopolitical rivalries also exert external pressure on democracies. In this respect, countries like Nepal that had to traditionally balance off two giant neighbours (India, China) now also have to factor in the United States. Debt repayment and development assistance are often used as carrots and sticks by world powers to influence domestic politics. The only way developing countries like Nepal can deal with this would be by strengthening domestic accountability and regional cooperation as a stabilising and democratic counterweight.&nbsp; Moontae Jeong in Bangkok  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457" data-rendition-name="original" width="1194" height="1596" loading="lazy" alt="State of Democracy"> </figure>  <a href="https://cdn.sanity.io/files/2e5hi812/production/f7b6fb692e1475af3927aff774dbc93f50771ba9.pdf" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023</a> International IDEA Stockholm 2023 <a href="http://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">www.idea.int</a>

Stemming Asia’s democratic decay

Nepal’s cricket team first beat powerhouse West Indies in two out of three matches in September, the first time it won a match and then a series against a test-playing nation.&nbsp; Then the Rhinos played six qualifiers in Oman for the 2026 T20 World Cup which is being held in India and Sri Lanka from 7 February to 8 March next year. The national team qualified comfortably with two games to spare, and won all six matches anyway. In the three months before the World Cup, cricketers will play the second season of the Nepal Premier League from 17 November to 13 December.&nbsp; After a hugely successful first season, steady upgrades have been made. The flood-lit Tribhuvan University Cricket Ground has been fitted with 15,000 seats, even though this takes away from the festival-like atmosphere of fans on their feet on the grassy slope.&nbsp; Last season, matches began at noon and three in the afternoon. Late-evening matches in winter under flood lights will increase attendance and viewership.&nbsp; There is also now technology that will display how far a six was hit and how fast a ball was bowled. Foreign players who will play in the league include Chris Lynn, D’arcy Short, Ravi Bopara, and Sohail Tanvir, all good ex-international players that people have heard of.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_9db0830fb65d0743e3d36cc4b4473e61d750789028a130f5dff8a619307b0215.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251101031128_9db0830fb65d0743e3d36cc4b4473e61d750789028a130f5dff8a619307b0215" data-rendition-name="original" width="1365" height="1803" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Aasif Sheikh drives through the covers on his way to 69 off 41 vs Samoa.</figcaption> </figure>  But the most important point of the Nepal Premier League will be to prepare and experiment for the World Cup, which starts less than two months after the NPL ends. Team Nepal will be extra eager to play well, given that the matches are happening in South Asia and Nepali fans can make the trip.&nbsp; Head coach Stuart Law will be watching each NPL match keenly, to gain more insight into how to best use his current starters.&nbsp; As each of the eight teams are only allowed a maximum of four foreign players in their starting eleven, Law and Nepali fans will also be scouting new talent who will be hungry to emerge and prove themselves to earn a place in the World Cup Squad.&nbsp; ALL-ROUNDERS One of the most unusual features of the current Nepali squad is how many all-rounders there are. Kushal Bhurtel, Rohit Paudel, Kushal Malla, Gulshan Jha, and Dipendra Singh Airee are all regular starters, and they all bat and bowl. Opener Aasif Sheikh is also the wicketkeeper.&nbsp; Airee, of course, is also an excellent fielder. In the first five games of the qualifiers, he got a record five runouts with direct hits, and was on a roll with a run in every single game. This depth means that almost always seven players bowl for Nepal, and the wealth of options keeps the opponent batting order guessing, but it may create hesitancy within the team in tough situations against stronger teams.&nbsp; Countries at the top level of the sport tend to have more specialists. Perhaps Stuart Law might want to tell Bhurtel to really focus on his batting, or Airee to hone his bowling, which seems to be their strengths. The team would be better off with them performing one aspect consistently well than being hit or miss with both. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_c30fdbab65736ea728f2f94fa121d2169e4d3627194ce1fe9de26eebdb3fc5b3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251101031128_c30fdbab65736ea728f2f94fa121d2169e4d3627194ce1fe9de26eebdb3fc5b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="957" height="1269" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Lalit Rajbhansi with tricky left arm spin, 3/13 vs Samoa.</figcaption> </figure>  POWERPLAYS The Nepali team likes batting first. It chased only against Japan, but they struggle to put up really competitive scores of say, above 170 unless two batsmen do really well.&nbsp; In the second match against the West Indies, Aasif Sheikh’s 68 and Sundeep Jora’s 63 set up Nepal at 173/6. Against Samoa, Aasif Sheikh had 69 and Airee had 53, before Lokesh Bam’s fierce 39 off 12 featuring 4 sixes set up 211/4.&nbsp; Besides these games, Nepal tends to score up to 150 batting first. To the experienced teams that Nepal will face at the world cup, this is not at all an intimidating score. One reason is that Nepal just cannot seem to get going in the first six powerplay overs, when there are limited fielders on the boundaries.&nbsp; A solution to this might be to promote Gulshan Jha up the order. Although Jha has also been an excellent batter in the end overs, using him at three or four might help set up a more productive powerplay and bigger scores. He should try it out with the Karnali Yaks.&nbsp; Despite all the controversy that comes with Sandip Lamichhane, and his strange decision to sit out the West Indies series minutes before the first match started, his output with the ball is undeniable.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_453d54ce627367c537d459c38d260d8aca1d56949c49c8023de582f3e72bb678.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251101031128_453d54ce627367c537d459c38d260d8aca1d56949c49c8023de582f3e72bb678" data-rendition-name="original" width="1499" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Nepalis turn out to support the team vs Samoa at Al Ameret Stadium in Oman.</figcaption> </figure>  He took wickets in each of the six qualifiers, most notably five vital ones in the match against Qatar that Nepal won by five runs. Lamichhane also gives away very few runs, which cuts some of the more part-time bowlers some slack.&nbsp; Airee is also economical, and his 3/22 was vital in the one-run win against the UAE. Together with Lamichhane the duo constricted the opposition in the middle overs. Veteran Sompal Kami has not been as productive with the ball, and gave away a lot of runs in the series against the West Indies.&nbsp; This is a weakness, because Kami does not contribute with the bat much. While his experience is valuable to ground the young Nepali team, Stuart Law should look out for fast bowlers during the NPL to help balance out quality spinners.&nbsp; One of the most impressive and professional parts of Nepal’s winning streak has been the attention to detail. The players have been generally excellent in the field, giving away very few runs due to wides or no balls. They had three run outs against the UAE and two against Qatar and Japan and in the first game against the West Indies.&nbsp; The fielders seem much calmer and focused when executing difficult catches, a welcome change from past complacency. This attention to detail makes the difference in narrow games and keeps morale high.&nbsp; The Nepali team has performed well, but besides the narrowly-beaten UAE, all the matches were against teams ranked lower in the world T20 rankings. And the series against the West Indies was against a weakened team. In the world cup, Nepal will be facing much stronger teams and will lack the element of surprise it had in the 2024 World Cup.&nbsp; If Nepal wants to keep improving, it now has to be able to dominate teams like Kuwait and Oman. It also should set up more series with associate nations like Scotland, Ireland, Namibia and The Netherlands. This will help accurately gauge the team’s progress and expose its weaknesses.

Nepal’s prospects at World Cup 2026

With the holidays over and elections only four months away, Nepal’s interim government led by Prime Minister Sushila Karki is trying to get down to brass tacks. But it is not easy.
On Wednesday, Karki held the first three-way meeting between GenZ representatives, political parties and the government. Despite some acrimony, there was near unanimity about creating the environment for elections on 5 March. 
Only the UML is holding out, still not taking responsibility for the 8 September massacre, and calling for the reinstatement of Parliament. GenZ delegates poured their wrath on the unrepentant UML, but were themselves talking at cross purposes on the demand for a directly-elected executive. 
Karki was on the defensive, her exasperation spilling over: “How do we undo the damage done by corruption, exploitation, and discrimination over the last 35 years in a single month?” 
She is reported to have added, “There is a tendency to not allow this government to work, and then turn around to criticise it for not achieving anything. We are trying our best, and will fulfil our goal of elections no matter what.” 
The Wednesday meeting does seem to have turned the attention of old parties towards elections, and spurred the GenZ and others with political ambition to form parties.
With the deadline for party registration looming, several like-minded individuals and collectives are coalescing, or trying to. The Election Commission is already reviewing applications from more than a dozen new political parties. 
Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah has held talks with RSP members, but his popularity on social media is not matched by public visibility and accessibility. Intriguingly, Shah and his supporters on social media have been publicly asking for the resignation of Home Minister Om Aryal for not arresting members of the UML-NC government for the 8 September killings. Aryal used to be Mayor Shah’s legal adviser.
Sudan Gurung of GenZ, ex-RSP Sumana Shrestha, and Energy Minister Kulman Ghising are all shopping for existing or new political parties to join. 
The RSP with its alternative anti-corruption agenda would be the logical choice, but there is a question mark over the role of its head Rabi Lamichhane, who is back in jail on charges of embezzlement.
LARGER CABINET
This week, Karki expanded her Cabinet for the third time by inducting Sudha Sharma Gautam as Minister for Health and activist Bablu Gupta as the Minister for Youth and Sports. 
Recommended by GenZ members, Gupta, 28, is the youngest Minister in Karki’s team. But, as has become the norm with this electoral government, two other controversial nominations fell through. Khagendra Sunar was dropped as Minister for Labour because of several ongoing criminal charges, including for assault and inflammatory speech. And Ganapati Lal Shrestha for Minister of Land Management declined at the last moment after he was not given the Tourism and Culture portfolio as preferred. 
Critics say there is a lack of due diligence on the part of Karki’s advisers in selecting candidates. Last month, Sangeeta Mishra who was nominated for Health Minister was dropped after it turned out that she was under investigation at the CIAA. However, Kulman Ghising also had complaints filed at the anti-corruption body, but was still given three portfolios. 
Then the nomination of Tashi Lhazom was withdrawn after an online controversy over her citizenship. There was also outrage on social media about Mishra and Lhazom being singled out for their ethnicity and gender.
Internal leaks making her choices prematurely public has made Karki’s team overcautious about Cabinet expansion. It is also distracting her from her main goal — to hold credible elections by striking a balance between the political parties and GenZ groups.
After a preliminary hearing on 16 writ petitions against the House dissolution and appointment of new government, the Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to issue an interim order.
“The formation of the government is unconstitutional, and a government formed unconstitutionally is not allowed to make any decisions, until the final hearing,” stated advocate Surendra Bhandari. 
The UML, still smarting from the September protests, is trying to put a spanner in the works of the election government. The GenZ, meanwhile, still do not have a consensus over fundamental demands prior to elections. Combined, these two factors portend a precarious future.

Future imperfect

A little more than one month into its six-month term, Nepal's interim government recalled ambassadors from 11 countries: China, Japan, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, Spain, Germany, the UK, the US, and Japan.&nbsp;
Mostly appointed by previous governments, they have to return to Kathmandu by 6 November. The envoys who were retained, even if they were political appointees, tended to be women or from various ethnic minorities.
The recall has met with criticism back home. Prime Minister Sushila Karki is blamed for borrowing a page out of its predecessors’ playbook. Although it was a symbolically inclusive move in a diplomatic corps dominated by established groups, the government may have got its timing wrong.
On Sunday, however, the Supreme Court issued an interim order against government decision to recall the 11 ambassadors. The court questioned the neccesssity and justification of such a move, concerned that it could affect Nepal's relations with the host countries.&nbsp;
Karki has said <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/future-imperfect">her priority is to hold elections in March</a>, and by recalling Nepal’s emissaries from important capitals like Washington, London, Bonn, Tokyo, Abu Dhabi and Kuala Lumpur her government has cut channels of communication and support from development partners and with the international community.&nbsp;
Nepal’s anti-corruption GenZ protest and the devolution of the youth movement into <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/relocate-reallocate-recover">arson, looting, and violence</a> after the targeted killing of protestors in September put the nation in the international spotlight. And the interest was especially keen in neighbouring New Delhi and Beijing.&nbsp;
The Nepal unrest has sparked similar protests across the world from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-genzs-inspired-filipinos">the Philippines</a> to East Timor, Madagascar and Peru. But there is also worry in India where exposure of #nepokids on social media as well as corruption in high places could instigate copycat youth unrest.
And in China, there is still a lingering memory of the deadly protests in 1989 Tiananmen Square. But the Chinese also suspect that some in the GenZ movement have links to free-Tibet. &nbsp;
Foreign policy experts in Nepal reject conspiracy theories about foreign backing for the GenZ, characterising it as mostly triggered by home-grown outrage over chronic corruption of the governing elite.&nbsp;
Throughout its history Nepal has always had to balance the geo-strategic interests of its neighbours: the British in India and the Chinese Empire, and more recently independent India and Communist China.
When former PM K P Oli resigned, he had <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/when-xi-meets-modi-and-oli">just returned from a visit to Beijing</a> and was a week away from making an official visit to India. A new Nepali prime minister typically makes the first visit to India, but Oli broke that tradition last year by going to China to sign the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement.
"Oli was China's trusted partner supporting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/china-syndrome">Nepal’s participation in BRI</a> and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)," says geopolitical analyst Sanjay Upadhya. "Now, some in Beijing are apprehensive that there is external support for the youth protests that contributed to Oli’s sudden departure. It is perceived as a strategic setback for China."
Despite an ongoing dispute with India over a 364 sq km border territory, Nepal is heavily dependent economically on India with which it has an open border.&nbsp;
Rulers in Kathmandu have usually leaned over backwards to be closer to China to counterbalance India’s gravitational pull following a strategy of ‘equidistance’ between the two giant neighbours.&nbsp;
Growing American and Western disinterest in the region is making India and China more assertive towards smaller nations. Educator Dovan Rai says, “China is also becoming more aggressive and trying to show its presence in and around South Asia.”
She adds, “Nepal is an important neighbour for China, especially considering issues it regards as sensitive, like the Dalai Lama and Tibet.”
Indeed, the Chinese are said to be suspicious about the links that the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-historic-youth-dissensus">GenZ movement</a> was infiltrated by elements linked with Free Tibet or with US-based interests.&nbsp;
What must have especially raised eyebrows at the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu was that the Dalai Lama’s office in exile in India congratulated Sushila Karki — the first time in history it has sent such a greeting to a new prime minister of Nepal.&nbsp;
Although Nepal’s two neighbours do not see eye-to-eye, both agree and are worried about instability in Nepal, and if it might trigger a refugee crisis, empower extremist factions, or attract Western interference.&nbsp;
Nepal’s September protests were preceded and succeeded by similar movements in the region and around the world. In light of this global eruption of youth frustration, and desire to lead from the front, the hardline governments of Nepal’s two neighbours are undoubtedly wary of the possibility of similar unrest within their own borders.&nbsp;
‘India advocates democratic legitimacy, while China prioritises control and predictability. Recent upheavals demonstrate that neither democracy nor stability alone suffices for sustainable nationhood,’ Upadhya wrote in a recent blog.
With early elections scheduled for 5 March, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/one-month-later">the main challenge for Karki’s transition government</a> is to maintain dialogue and establish consensus between youth groups, political parties, and other agitating forces to participate in polls — all while ensuring there is no covert external influence.&nbsp;
Indeed, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-democracy-keeps-doubting-itself">Nepal’s democracy</a> at stake as well as new political forces with competing interests set to battle it out in a new political landscape, experts warn that there could be powers that will want to fish in troubled waters.&nbsp;
Explains Dovan Rai: “Along with soft power, foreign countries including our neighbours could intervene in the online information space to promote their interests in Nepal. Fake narratives and disinformation could be spread &nbsp;through digital platforms. We must be careful and vigilant about our digital space.”

Neighbourhood watch on Nepal

The autumn mountaineering season is not over yet, and already there have been 12 fatalities on Himalayan peaks in Nepal.
Of the 1,450 climbing permits issued, 436 were for Mt Ama Dablam (6,812m), 374 for Mt Manaslu (8,163m) and 186 for Himlung Himal (7,126m). There were deaths on all three mountains.
The death of two French climbers on Ama Dablam happened before unseasonal blizzards hit the mountains. But Cyclone Montha from the Bay of Bengal brought on high winds and up to 1m of snow in the peak trekking and mountaineering season.
This increased avalanche conditions, and made helicopter evacuation of stranded and injured climbers difficult. Lower down the mountains, more than 1,000 trekkers from Nepal and around the world were stuck in the Annapurnas, Manaslu circuit and the Khumbu.
However, there have also been allegations that it was not just the weather that delayed rescues. Multiple levels of bureaucracy and the need for flight permits to restricted areas like Manang and Manaslu critically delayed evacuation flights.
Italian climbers Farronato Stefano and Caputo Alessandro were found dead in their tent at Panbari Himal Camp I (6,887m) in the Manaslu area. They had been trapped by heavy snowfall since 28 October, and their bodies were found on 4 November by a team from the expedition organisers, Sherpa Alpine Trekking Service. The team was made up of high level mountain guides and expedition leader Valter Perlino.
The team had been climbing to Camp 3 but decided to descend to base camp because of thrombosis in Perlino’s left foot. The two climbers who would eventually get trapped decided to break at Camp I, a decision that would prove fatal after the projected six-day snowfall arrived two days early.
“They were sleeping in a tent and were buried under 2.5 metres of compacted snow. It happened during the night between Thursday and Friday. While they were sleeping, absurd,” said Perlino.
A deadly incident took place the morning of 3 November, when five foreigners and two Nepalis died in an avalanche on Yalung Ri at 5,630m in the Rolwaling. They were part of a larger group of 15 that were acclimatising for an attempt on the nearby Dolma Khang (6,332m).
Local authorities in Gauri Shankar Conservation Area say calls were immediately made to helicopter companies as well as various ministries in Kathmandu that have to issue permits to fly to the region bordering China.
But the permits for rescue flights to Rolwaling Valley were delayed by eight hours. Rescue flights in these areas require permission from the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Ministry, and the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN).
Experts say this should be exempted in times of emergency when time is of the essence. CAAN spokesperson Pratap Babu Tiwari claimed to not know of the avalanche on Yalung Ri and deflected questions to the permission department.&nbsp;
There was a similar tragedy on Himlung Himal in Manang as well. Australian Chin-Tark Chan, 49, was climbing with 8K Expeditions and fell ill on 27 October at about 6,800m, developing snow blindness and loss of mobility. The guides immediately called the US insurance company Global Rescue for authorisation of a longline rescue.
Global Rescue refused, saying a rescue at that height would violate Nepal’s aviation rules and put the pilot at unacceptable risk. They asked the guides to transport Chan to Camp 3 at 6,400m to a permitted altitude. Seeing it was a life-or-death situation for its client, 8K called in an aerial rescue anyway, but the helicopter could not land due to bad weather. Chan died slightly below Camp 3 on 29 October.
Global Rescue said in a statement that it was ready to send in a helicopter after Chan had been transported to Camp 3, but several hours were lost for that attempt, and the weather did not get better in the next few days.
To underscore just how dangerous helicopter rescues in the Himalaya can be in bad weather, a chopper from Altitude Air skidded off the helipad at Lobuche below Mt Everest while trying to rescue trekkers in whiteout conditions.&nbsp;
CAAN announced a ban on flights during blizzards or dense fog. While rescue missions are often heroic and courageous, they should not be foolhardy if conditions are unsafe and the risk to pilots and rescuers too high. This autumn was a lesson for future expeditions and for the Nepal government.&nbsp;
The Italian duo on Panbari were caught out by snow that arrived two days ahead of schedule, but the group on Yalung Ri should have postponed their ascent after multiple warnings from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology to avoid high altitudes.

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