Nepal finds itself at an intersection of two potent forces – a technological revolution sweeping the globe and a dramatic demographic shift. Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, often seen as the deus ex machina of the 21st century, are making their presence in every part of our lives. This digital metamorphosis comes with its benefits and threats. While they promise to augment economic activities, they simultaneously risk displacing numerous labour-intensive jobs. This concern is acute for a country like Nepal, where remittances from its workers in the Gulf countries, a region rapidly embracing technological shift, account for almost 26% of the nation’s GDP. “Job displacement from labor-intensive industries has been taking place for several decades, as countries move to higher-value-added activities and services,” wrote Mckinsey &amp; Company in The Future of Jobs in the Middle East in 2018, adding that this will accelerate <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/middle-east-and-africa/are-middle-east-workers-ready-for-the-impact-of-automation">between now and 2030 with 45% of existing work in the Middle East potentially being automated.</a>  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090952_a93aeeca5e7480559a7ada068cb22ba7247b73088349c2eedead1f35af622d81.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230904090952_a93aeeca5e7480559a7ada068cb22ba7247b73088349c2eedead1f35af622d81" data-rendition-name="original" width="918" height="685" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"></figure>   <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090952_1b3468214a3703bdf69e5c332831d25699cd690e170d2ef7b1418fbbe19ca9f6.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230904090952_1b3468214a3703bdf69e5c332831d25699cd690e170d2ef7b1418fbbe19ca9f6" data-rendition-name="original" width="676" height="305" loading="lazy" alt="ILO"><figcaption>Source: Recruitment of migrant workers from Nepal: Country Profile (ILO, 2021)</figcaption></figure>  This should be of special concern for policymakers in labour exporting countries like Nepal given the inherent <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/middle%20east%20and%20africa/are%20middle%20east%20workers%20ready%20for%20the%20impact%20of%20automation/the-future-of-jobs-in-the-middle-east.pdf">link between displacement potential by automation and low-to-medium levels of education and experience</a>. Workers who have a ‘high-school education or less’ are most vulnerable to the shocks associated with automation. The average automation potential of jobs requiring less than high school, or high school/some experience is more than 50%. Labour migrating from Nepal predominantly characterised by a preponderance of young unskilled labor (more than 54% of total labor migration) are most vulnerable in this displacement.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090952_184cb0d4a71b043fa9cbc0cf102e6ceee65e43dd27e42e3d5d3befdce491525f.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230904090952_184cb0d4a71b043fa9cbc0cf102e6ceee65e43dd27e42e3d5d3befdce491525f" data-rendition-name="original" width="918" height="644" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"></figure>   <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090952_fdb171a296445b16abb2dd9a04e2dac49a0e8d8723b7564bf232b96a4ad16f36.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230904090952_fdb171a296445b16abb2dd9a04e2dac49a0e8d8723b7564bf232b96a4ad16f36" data-rendition-name="original" width="1106" height="268" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"><figcaption>Source: Recruitment of migrant workers from Nepal: Country Profile (ILO, 2021)</figcaption></figure>  At the same time, Nepal with more than 60% of its population falling in the working age group is undergoing a demographic shift. Drawing upon the 2021 census data, Nepal’s annual population growth rate has decreased to 0.92% with the birth rate having dropped while life expectancy is on the rise. The World Bank data reveals that Nepal’s birth rate dropped from 31 per 1,000 people in 2000 to 20 in 2020, while <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=NP">life expectancy</a> has risen from 63 years to 69 years during the same period. The number of people older than 60 has climbed by 2 percent points. By 2040, the <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/population-estimates-and-projections">population estimates and projections from the World Bank</a> shows that the proportion of elderly population in Nepal will have increased by more than one third. These demographic forces are poised to cause a significant increase in the dependency ratio (dependent people as percent of the working age population), a challenge for an economy primarily dependent on labour remittance.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904100944_d1d3d49bf18f40fb0ec96b81bcb77ff1cbf2641896397b71868cae07fc78d131.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20230904100944_d1d3d49bf18f40fb0ec96b81bcb77ff1cbf2641896397b71868cae07fc78d131" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="700" loading="lazy" alt="demographic transition"><figcaption>Source: Nepal Population and Housing Census (NSO- NPHC, 2021)</figcaption></figure>  Nevertheless, technological revolution has not only reshaped global superpowers but has also provided emerging economies with opportunities to leapfrog traditional developmental transition. Digital technology’s creative destruction could spawn new sectors of employment, that could help to harness the benefit of demographic dividend and improve the quality of life in the longer run. <a href="https://www.iids.org.np/images/publications/53e4e8a0c60bb963dfdabce67ec5fdcf.pdf">A study by the Institute of Integrated Development Studies</a> offers insightful data that underscores the significance. By 2022, Nepali IT companies had made a substantial investment of $41.26 million across the country. This investment reflects the growing confidence of stakeholders in the potential of the IT sectors. More impressively, these investments translated into staggering revenue of $515 million, showcasing the sector’s profitability, and its capacity to contribute to the national economy. As technology has made more services tradable, Nepal has the opportunity to transition from labour exports to service exports. This not only retains talent within the country but also creates job opportunities for the youth, addressing the brain drain issue. However, the trajectory isn’t as straightforward. Digital inclusion gaps, a limited capacity for innovative digital tech use, myopic labour laws, lack of data security laws, shortage of skills and IT infrastructural challenges pose substantial barriers for inclusive growth. Moreover, Nepal has grappled with governance failure and political instability that have hampered past policy implementation efforts, pointing towards a more critical systemic challenge. On one hand, IT companies seek workforce proficiency in essential areas such as UI/UX, SQL, full stack web development, python, DevOps, and automation testing.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090956_bf93b210720350521983eeebac9d8f82458aaf26608105bd57fb32991929002e.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20230904090956_bf93b210720350521983eeebac9d8f82458aaf26608105bd57fb32991929002e" data-rendition-name="original" width="655" height="455" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"><figcaption>Source: Unleashing IT: Advancing Nepal’s Digital Economy (IIDS, 2023) </figcaption></figure>  While on the other hand, demographic profile of Nepal shows that there are less than 2% youths in the age group 15-39 years with 10+2 or equivalent who have computing and technology as major field of study. The figure is much higher for those enrolled in management at more than 35%.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904090956_58e440ecb976281a220e2d16c26ff12c4679418957ca77c33250fbcd26792299.png" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20230904090956_58e440ecb976281a220e2d16c26ff12c4679418957ca77c33250fbcd26792299" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"><figcaption>Source: Nepal Population and Housing Census (NSO- NPHC, 2021) </figcaption></figure>  Viewed through a gender lens, females within this age group exhibit a strong inclination towards Education and Health/Medical Sciences. Their representation in the field of Computing and Information Technology remains strikingly low, accounting for less than 1% of the cohort.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023090410090_8697f24662b6a53800810f764bb8d834b5198772b28cf29845ef23ec65bf15be.png" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="2023090410090_8697f24662b6a53800810f764bb8d834b5198772b28cf29845ef23ec65bf15be" data-rendition-name="original" width="1900" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"><figcaption>Source: Nepal Population and Housing Census (NSO- NPHC, 2021) </figcaption></figure>  While established <a href="https://b360nepal.com/public/putting-his-stamp-on-the-world-kiran-bhakta-joshi">digital enterprises and burgeoning startups are navigating through the talent pool</a>, they frequently encounter a significant void: a dearth of individuals possessing the requisite skills to be deemed employable. This scarcity is particularly pronounced among women, whose specific skill gaps act as a formidable barrier, constraining their full participation in the digital workforce and entrepreneurial ventures. Madhes Province, for instance, with a youthful demographic paradoxically grapples with staggering low female literacy rate (54.7%).  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230904100932_7b52c96ac5b03f15a358ec65d94d9485e78aba51c3f2ac8915041e98fd337779.png" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20230904100932_7b52c96ac5b03f15a358ec65d94d9485e78aba51c3f2ac8915041e98fd337779" data-rendition-name="original" width="1512" height="634" loading="lazy" alt="Tech and transition"><figcaption>Source: Nepal Population and Housing Census (NSO- NPHC, 2021)</figcaption></figure>  It is crucial to consider the <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28551">unequal effects of service-led growth</a>, a phenomenon that has been observed in other developing countries like India. In Nepal, this could exacerbate existing urban-rural divides, as the evolution of informational technology may not absorb the unskilled labour from rural area that currently seeks employment abroad, particularly in the Gulf countries. It is imperative for Nepal to craft policies that are sensitive to these unequal effects. This could include investing in education and training programs that are aligned with the needs of the IT sector, bridging rural development initiatives that complement holistic service led growth, and implementing training programs that help females and individuals from underrepresented groups in the burgeoning IT sector. As the tides of time advance, we find countries steadily pivoting towards realms of higher intellectual yield—towards activities and services that demand less from the body and more from the mind. Nepal with its youthful demographic could, to some extent, harness the power of technology to spur economic growth. However, this same demographic group, given their current education levels, might not effectively complement in the aspired trajectory. Moreover, they are potentially the most vulnerable to unemployment due to automation, especially with over 54% of total labour migration being unskilled. The government faces a herculean task in turning technology into a viable solution for employment and inclusive growth. Development stakeholders in the young republic must guide this transformation with astute policymaking and strategies as we witness Nepal's demographic shift in the age of automation.” Ashutosh M. Dixit is an economist and an Australia Award Scholar with over 15 years of experience. He has worked with the National Planning Commission in Nepal and global institutions including the World Bank, UNICEF, UN-ESCAP, OECD, UNDP, and Standard Chartered.

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Tech and transition in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f29c7e80680e0599b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1062"/><figcaption>Photo : SONIA AWALE</figcaption></figure>Nepal is stepping up preparations for its 10-year census in 2021, which is slated to be the most hitech in history and will go beyond simply counting the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nepals-changing-demography-is-having-profound-impact-on-politics,2693" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s population</a> to surveying households in order to chart the country’s path in the coming decade.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaEnumerators from the <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://cbs.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Bureau of Statistics</a> (CBS) will be using tablets to enter data during a pilot census in 14 districts next month. The actual census in June 2021 is expected to give an accurate picture of Nepal’s demography and how it has progressed in <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/">health</a>, <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">education</a> and development.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade?,</a> Sonia AwaleFor the first time, data will be collected at the lowest administrative unit, the ward, and also include information on housing, migration, jobs and income. The census will cost Rs4.5 billion and employ 43,000 enumerators.“Previous censuses only went down to the district level, and enumerators used two forms: a short form for every household, and a long form used on every eighth household,” says Bijay Thapa of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which is collaborating with the government on the census. “After federalism, local governments also want disaggregated data and we will have detailed information on every household.”Next year’s exercise will also count the number of old and new buildings and note whether they are residential, official, commercial or unused. It will include a community survey, one of the first in the world, to assess availability of government services, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disaster preparedness</a> and access to natural resources.“This will help us determine if people are making the best use of government services,” says CBS Director Dhundiraj Lamichhane. “Nepal has categorised 276 municipalities as urban, but we do not know if the resources available match the international criteria for urban municipalities. This survey will help us determine that. If successful, it will be a model for other countries.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a>Sanghamitra SubbaLamichhane said the questions enumerators will ask have not yet been finalised, but there are demands from various communities to include ones on mother tongue, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-right-of-passage/">disabilities</a> and sexual orientation. Activists say there are 900,000 <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Night-and-%20Day,3145">LGBTI people in Nepal</a>, but the 2011 census showed only 1,500 so the figure was not included in the results.“This time they want more detailed questions to reflect their diversity, but we think it is better to do a separate survey,” says Lamichhane. “Various castes and ethnicities are also demanding to be included, but we will only do so if recommended by relevant government bodies.”Going by past trends and other sample surveys, experts have already projected results of the 2021. Nepal is expected to continue showing improvements on most indicators, including birth rate, population growth, health and education. However, they say some indicators, like the sex ratio and migration, may not show progress.One of the reasons Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/">population growth rate is low is because of the absentee population</a>: 1.92 million according to the last census. And there is no reason to believe that the percentage of migrants will decrease or even stabilise in next year’s count. However, internal migration is expected to slow because of more education and employment opportunities at local levels.Nepal’s current sex ratio is 94 males per 100 females,<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f59c7e80680e0599b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="461" height="500">and the sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females. This is considered normal, since there are usually slightly more male children born than females, but females tend to live longer.“Female foeticide is growing even though it is illegal. The next census may show a greater ratio of male babies born to female ones, and we estimate the sex ratio at birth to rise to 110 males to 100 females. Additionally, the national average may hide greater discrepancies in certain districts or cities where female foeticide is more rampant, and we need to watch out for that,” explains Tirtha Tamang of UNFPA.Demographic indicators like birth, fertility and death rates are all set to decrease, which means that Nepal’s population growth rate will continue to slow. The 2021 census is likely to show a wider ‘youth bulge’ in the population pyramid. Although this provides a ‘<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">demographic dividend</a>,’ with a bigger workforce that could lead to a development boom, Nepal must be able to cash in on this window of opportunity in the next 10 years. Given the current quality of governance, experts doubt it will happen.Nepal’s youth advantage will last till 2047. After that, the country will be grappling with the complications of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624">an ageing society</a>. In fact, Nepal will start losing some of its youth power about 2028, when the population over 65 will be more than 7%. The next decade is key for Nepal to use its demographic dividend to provide jobs at home and boost economic growth.Despite improvements in education, health, life expectancy and income, the country may not be in a position to make the best of its demographic dividend because of the skewed sex ratio caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/irresistible-forces-wage-differentials-and-demographic-trends/">outmigration</a>. According to a report by the National Planning Commission, the country sorely needs to invest in policies that make the best of the potential of youth.Says Lamichhane at the CBS: “If young Nepalis at the peak of their abilities <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/">continue to leave the country</a>, then Nepal will not make great strides in development. In the next decade we need policies to modernise agriculture and improve infrastructure if we want to retain our youth and have them contribute to the country.”<h2>21 of Nepal’s most endangered languages</h2>When Nepal’s last census was published in 2011, language became one of the most hotly-debated indicators. Many doubted that the census accurately reflected the status of Nepal’s languages. This time, the Language Commission is working with the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to make a more comprehensive tally.The 2011 census counted 123 languages spoken in Nepal, including foreign languages like English, French, Spanish and Chinese. Also, there was a belief that many people who had forgotten their ancestral language nevertheless registered those languages as their mother tongue, leading to higher numbers of speakers of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Mind-your-languages,133" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endangered languages</a> registered than in reality. The Kusunda language, for example, has only two speakers left, but the census records 28.“The languages should be categorised as foreign and native to Nepal, so that we don’t count European languages as our own,” says Bharat Tripathi of the Language Commission. “Also, the last time there were only two questions asked about language: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13412#.XftV_JMzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mother tongue</a> and second language. This time we want to change that to: mother tongue, second language and ancestral language.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f79c7e80680e0599b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="947">While the CBS is still debating these suggestions, it has agreed to include six more languages newly catalogued by the Language Commission, bringing the total to 129. “We investigated Rana Tharu, Narafu, Chum, Nubri/Lharke, Poike and Serake languages in the past year. Through linguistic methodologies, we have established that they are distinct languages,” says Tripathi. “This year we have received claims from speakers of Marek Yakhya and Walung languages in Taplejung — we are in the process of investigating them.”These languages are usually spoken by very few people, and are added to the list of endangered languages. The commission has identified 37 languages spoken by fewer than 1,000 people, and placed 21 of them on that list, but there may be many more hidden among less populous communities. The commission is working to document these 21 languages by collecting their grammar, determining their alphabets, writing their language histories and documenting the available folklore.It is doubtful if all of the 129 languages will survive even till the census in June 2021. But most certainly many will be gone by the 2031 census.

Nepal in the 2020s

In the very first page of the first chapter of Nepal 2043: The Road to Prosperity are two maps. The first places Nepal right at the epicentre of Asia, and in the second the Kathmandu is at exactly the midpoint between Mumbai and Beijing. With his trademark optimism, author Sujeev Shakya says Nepal is not land-locked but land-linked to three billion people in China and India. We just need those two economic engines to pull us in the same direction. ‘With China and India becoming the two largest economies in the world in the next two decades … Nepal is the most valuable piece of real estate in the world,’ Shakya writes. For one thing, Nepal does not look beyond India and China for tourism — with the right policies it can attract millions of tourists just from those two countries. Nepal is set to graduate from a low- to a middle-income country by 2026 and to a high-income country in 2043 — hence the name of the book. The year 2043 in the Bikram Sambat calendar is also 2100 — a new Nepali century. The book delves into the past, present and future of Nepal and analyses enablers including hydropower, a fundamental transformation of which will drive the 2043 goal. The commoditisation of electricity will be the biggest transformation. Nepal can deploy ‘Cyber Gurkhas’ to attract foreign investors with the management of data centres with climate friendly renewable energy. Access to technology such as precision agriculture, a data-driven approach to farming to improve food production, reduce environmental impact and enhance profitability could be Nepal’s strategy into 2043 and beyond. ‘Earlier, we needed ploughs and strong hands in agriculture. Now, you need a computer and strong fingers,” Shakya writes, citing a neighbour’s son who inspects his crops from drone cameras. A farmer in an Ilam teashop tells the author he asks AI questions in Nepali, and it answers promptly. The biggest enabler of all is Nepal’s young demography with 62% of the population in the active 15-60 age bracket, while 28% are younger than 14. Nepal’s dependency ratio has dropped to the lowest in history with 100 Nepalis having to support 62 dependents. But this demographic dividend window is closing. Nepal’s total fertility rate declined from 2.62% in 1981 to 0.92% in 2021 — below replacement level. We have less than 30 years left to make the best use of the youth, many of whom are currently studying and working abroad. Nepal’s biggest resource, therefore, is its diaspora spread across the world who send home $20 billion a year. Migration is not just a necessity but an aspiration for many Nepalis, and they are an important source of contacts, investment and soft power. This young and educated group has taken advantage of connectivity and digitisation in all arenas of national life. TikTok and Instagram have become e-commerce platforms, or mobile app-riven digital services. Nepal’s software companies exported over $1 billion worth of IT products last year. Next we need a change in the bureaucratic mindset to eliminate paper and manual processes, which would also contribute to reducing corruption. Shakya comes up with many revelations: 81% of Nepalis live in houses they own, much higher than most other South Asian countries which means higher disposable income. Nepal has the highest tax-to-GDP ratio in South Asia. The banking sector is twice the size of Bangladesh despite Nepal having just one-fifth of its population. In 2021, 12.62% of the population had demat accounts in Nepal, while India had only 5.32%. For every five male investors, there are four women in Nepal while it is 10:1 in India. With such figures and prospects, how come Nepal just went through a violent uprising that took the shortest time to topple a democratically-elected government in modern history? One early chapter of 2043 is actually dedicated to how Nepalis have always thrived on chaos. When people faced up to 20 hours of power cuts a day, people worked around the load-shedding schedule, woke up at ungodly hours to cook and stock up on inverters. They did not put up a fight, or even protest. ''Generally, Nepalis are used to taking things lying down, and perhaps this also needs to change,' says Shakya, writing that line before last month’s uprising. ‘On the one hand, some of these issues speak volumes about the average Nepali’s patience and perhaps optimism that things will change in the long run. On the other hand, one is also forced to wonder how much longer they will be able to put up with unfavourable conditions if things don’t change.’ It does seem Nepali had enough with corruption, governance failure and political apathy to the concerns of ordinary people. The final chapter lists the non-negotiables to realise the 2043 Nepal Roadmap: democratic values and freedom of speech, a capitalist welfare state and socio-political transformation to tackle corruption and impunity. The book notes, ‘Countries transitioning to democratic rule experienced a 20% increase in GDP over a 25 year period compared to what they would have achieved under authoritarian regimes. After the end of the Shah rule in 2006, Nepal’s GDP rose from US$10 billion to US$44 billion by 2024.’ The government’s Vision 2030 document projects Nepal’s GDP at US$100 billion, and the Vision 2043 estimates that it will be a US$423 billion economy with a per capita of US$12,100. However, it will need more than optimism and practical action to make these projections real. China and India loom large throughout the book with examples of small city states like Singapore which have taken advantage of their strategic location. Despite the tension between India and China, the two will have to collaborate given the inherent advantages. China has replaced the United States as India’s biggest trading partner. Sujeev Shakya is a great admirer of former Singaporean diplomat and author Kishore Mahbubani, and he has written a blurb for the book. He quotes Mahbubani saying that for the past 2,000 years, apart from the last two hundred, Asian countries have dominated the world, and it is quite natural that the world’s economic centre is returning to Asia. And Nepal is strategically placed to make the most of it because of its location between two of the world’s fastest growing economies. We just have to get our politics right, and have a strategy for equitable growth in the new Nepali century.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251016091052_78b2d1495d59cd492a17693e0e770b65230c7cb749393ac6643f4676b73832ef.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251016091052_78b2d1495d59cd492a17693e0e770b65230c7cb749393ac6643f4676b73832ef" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Sujeev Shakya book details NT"></figure>

Retrofitting Nepal for future shocks

In the aftermath of the GenZ protests last month, as new PM Sushila Karki chose the first members of her Council of Ministers, youth collectives urged that it reflect the country’s diversity by including women, youth and people from various ethnic and socio-cultural backgrounds.&nbsp;
It took another couple of weeks for Karki to include &nbsp;bureaucrat and public health expert Sangeeta Mishra as &nbsp;Health Minister in her next tranche of ministers. Almost immediately, people dug up a video of Mishra calling herself “Nepali, but a native Indian”.
She was telling it like it was: Mishra is a naturalised Nepali citizen. But there was outrage in the ultra-nationalistic cybersphere. Mishra’s name was withdrawn from the list of ministers, with government officials citing an ongoing investigation at the CIAA.&nbsp;
With her Cabinet still incomplete a month after taking office, Prime Minister Karki was preparing to induct GenZ as ministers. A leak in the media floated the names, one of which was of Tashi Lhazom, a climate activist and filmmaker from Humla’s Limi Valley.&nbsp;
Almost immediately, social media erupted with discriminatory, xenophobic and misogynistic epithets against her: that she supported a separatist movement, that she was a foreign agent, that her citizenship was disputed, that she did not ‘look’ or ‘speak’ like a Nepali.&nbsp;
Political figures like Gyanendra Shahi, a prominent voice calling for the restoration of a Hindu monarchy, added fuel to the fire by making bigoted and false remarks about her heritage.
The former Commissioner of the National Human Rights Commission, Mohna Ansari, wrote on social media that it was shameful to question Lhazom’s identity: ‘Ms Tashi Lhazom is as Nepali as you are. Our society’s ugliest face and biggest flaw is doubting our own. Real patriotism embraces diversity — fake nationalism must end.’
Ansari, a human rights lawyer and activist, has also often been subject to Islamophobic and derogatory comments on digital platforms. &nbsp;
In response, the Indigenous GenZ Collective released Lhazom’s Nepali citizenship certificate to debunk the mistruths spreading on digital as well as mainstream media.
What makes a Nepali? What does a Nepali look or sound like? Who is a Nepali?
‘Had my name been Tashi Poudel, Thapa, Bhattarai or Ghimire, this would not have happened,’ Lhazom said in an interview with Kantipur following an avalanche of bigotry against her. ‘They questioned me because I do not look Nepali, or speak Nepali like a Khas. Because it is not my mother tongue.’
It is an indictment of Nepali society that indigenous Nepalis have to present proof, at the slightest inconvenience of mostly the dominant groups, of being a citizen of this nation simply because they might not fit into an imagined idea of Nepali nationhood by virtue of physical appearance, speech, geography, or faith.
And while we celebrate the successes of Nepal-born naturalised foreign citizens (some now hold elected office in the US) we refuse to afford the same respect to naturalised Nepali citizens, and those born in Nepal to excluded groups, nor do we expect them to work in the national interest if they are given responsibility to govern. And women are singled out twice as much for scrutiny.
Then cyber Nepal went into a tizzy when videos appeared of a biker’s group clad in black t-shirts emblazoned with the acronym ‘TOB’ which was interpreted to stand for ‘Tibetan Original Blood’ and linked to the Free Tibet movement.
The accusations snowballed into disinformation, xenophobia, and even calls for violence against Nepalis of Tibetan heritage and the Tibetan community in Nepal.&nbsp;
In the aftermath of the September protest, the hope was that politics and the bureaucracy would finally be rid of orthodox political actors. But first, we as a nation need to collectively examine the biases and bigotry that exist in Nepal’s socio-cultural space.&nbsp;
Otherwise, Nepal’s multiculturalism will be limited to just words in the Constitution and political tokenism.
No one who is in government now or in future can be expected to be completely free of subjective opinions, ideology, affiliation to a cause, or prior activism. And such criticism falls disproportionately on activists, advocates, and members from underserved and underrepresented communities.&nbsp;
One cannot be apolitical and hope to participate in politics, and as we move forward to rebuild the system it must not just reflect diverse communities, but also celebrate diversity of thought and beliefs.&nbsp;
Resorting to ethnocentrism, racism and chauvinism with conspiracy theories and discriminatory dog-whistling about fellow citizens is a disservice to Nepali nationhood. It is Nepal’s diversity that makes us strong.&nbsp;
Shristi Karki

What makes a Nepali?

We were used to getting stuck in Kathmandu’s notorious traffic with gas fumes and horns blaring. We are still stuck in traffic, but now it is mostly the quiet hum of EVs, and street-level air is noticeably cleaner. Alongside Norway, Nepal has the highest combustion-to-EV conversion rates in the world. And we are not even a middle-income country yet. How did we get here?&nbsp; For the first time in Nepal’s history, 2025 saw an unprecedented turn of events: two back-to-back auto shows a week apart in August, independent of each other. This was timed for the warm up to the Dasain season. &nbsp;&nbsp; The first auto show 6-11 August was the <a href="https://naimanepal.org/mobility-expo" target="_blank">NAIMA Mobility Expo 2025 </a>by the newly established Nepal Automobile Importers and Manufacturers Association which saw 35 new models, many of them EVs with 50 participating brands like Toyota, BYD, Hyundai, Kia, MG, Mahindra, Omoda &amp; Jaecoo, Proton and Leapmotor.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025101711108_d8c03f5141f0086814d866543af4d95310f340a7191363e4705aedda8e4b73d0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025101711108_d8c03f5141f0086814d866543af4d95310f340a7191363e4705aedda8e4b73d0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1770" height="1097" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal NT"> </figure>  The exhibition had a strong focus on two-wheelers aimed at affordable and easy mobility in a town now known for long traffic jams (see report). NAIMA attracted a record 100,000 visitors in six days.&nbsp; The second one was the Nepal Automobile Dealer’s Association Auto Show 2025 (<a href="https://youtu.be/emSd0mUuMjU" target="_blank">NADA</a>) to address the growing demands for cars and two-wheelers. It was a natural expression of new market forces at work, on one hand, and popular taste, on the other — one influencing the other.&nbsp; This year’s NADA Auto Show was its 17th iteration, and carried a hefty legacy: exhibiting a contemporary lineup from manufacturers such as Tata, Suzuki, Xpeng and Nammi, but also classics for vintage car lovers like the 1928 Ford Model A and a rare 1955 Austin Princess Dm4 sedan.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025101711108_dda7d264ddb12448cc10d9b1cb699632eee975741fc4c56055e4df904579c34f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025101711108_dda7d264ddb12448cc10d9b1cb699632eee975741fc4c56055e4df904579c34f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1381" height="848" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal NT"> </figure>  It also showcased the Deepal eVTOL (a 2-seater drone), and a humanoid robot with dog. Curious onlookers at Bhrikuti Mandap thronged the show with footfall crossing 170,000.&nbsp; Earlier this year, I had traveled to attend India's largest auto show, the <a href="https://youtu.be/OgIIvXx6yOM?si=zNmMgklzCJpagTye" target="_blank">Bharat Mobility Global expo</a> in January in New Delhi. It was part of a <a href="https://youtu.be/GT6LBKiJvyg?si=r7YaxahjSAnsIfBY" target="_blank">roadtrip</a> from one capital to another with BYD Nepal on a Dolphin. The journey took three days through Bhairawa and then the Lucknow-Agra Expressway, covering a distance of 1200km one way.&nbsp; The drive through the horrid Narayanghat-Butwal corridor alone was testimony that EVs are no longer fragile and could handle a beating. And while both Nepal's economy pales in comparison to India, it was evident that the private passenger segment is well on its way to electrification. More than 70% of all vehicles sold in Nepal last year were electric. Sales representatives are unanimous: inquiries for EVs are at an all-time high and overshadow demand for ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles. Besides four-wheelers, a fast-growing proportion of scooters were also electric.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251017111016_e4cd988ca915ddd283a86d48fac332f22f98ff776b3d22391e10156ad56d7a1a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251017111016_e4cd988ca915ddd283a86d48fac332f22f98ff776b3d22391e10156ad56d7a1a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1389" height="863" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal"> </figure>  I have spent the last two years <a href="https://youtu.be/256YQa37Ol8?si=Sv1wQ8EdvgMCiTM_" target="_blank">reviewing</a> many of these EVs. The days of batter-powered cars being small toy cars, with sub-par build quality and the range of golf carts have long gone.&nbsp; Fit and finishing in both Chinese and Indian EVs are comparable to established brand names even in Japanese and European markets. But most significantly for us in Nepal, battery technology and range have made inter-city travel on our highways imaginable. The media sometimes portrays Nepal as a prime testing/dumping ground for EVs due to lack of regulation and the proximity to the world’s largest EV exporter (China) and our tough geographical conditions. That is just a part of the story. What actually stands out is the incredible appetite for risk among Nepali buyers.&nbsp; Since the Covid pandemic charging infrastructure has spread across the country. My early trips between Kathmandu and Pokhara saw the possibility of topping up with just one charging gun at the <a href="https://rsr.com.np/" target="_blank">Riverside Springs Resort in Kurintar</a> – and I would have to wait in line, or the charger simply would not be working.&nbsp; These days, by the time I cross Kurintar from Koteswor in my Kona, I will have passed at least 10 charging stations with multiple guns. &nbsp; On my <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@casuallyannoyeddriver" target="_blank">YouTube reviews</a>, people from across the globe ask about range and handling EVs on poor road conditions like ours. The occasional skeptics also leave comments like: ‘If this works in the higher altitudes and mountainous roads of Nepal, then it should be a breeze down here in the flats of Australia and/or hills around Auckland!’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251017111016_8b4fbe59884538849be6428eb2ce9249627a8970ed9ef4cd3c792682bf26dbed.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20251017111016_8b4fbe59884538849be6428eb2ce9249627a8970ed9ef4cd3c792682bf26dbed" data-rendition-name="original" width="1139" height="787" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal"> </figure>  SATURATION? However, both the NAIMA and NADA auto show also confirmed that we could be hitting a peak EV. From having just one car in one budget segment, there are now multiple alternatives stretching from the entry of below Rs3 million to the premium and high-end Rs 10 million price point.&nbsp; Furthermore, the price wars on EVs that started in China a year ago have also trickled across to Nepal. Models such as the <a href="https://youtu.be/3wFN2I81Tq0?si=T6L4SAfRpoyNNvYC" target="_blank">MG S5</a>, Nammi Vigo, BYD Atto 2 (and 1) and <a href="https://youtu.be/y214kWbWTc4?si=bIevanDZEPQdkEs4" target="_blank">Deepal S05</a> saw aggressive pricing schemes and discounts that disrupted pre-existing quotas. Consumers can suddenly afford a lot more cars, and travel a lot further for a considerably smaller price tag.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025101711108_276afec1bdbd37497572939a4eada4bef74c9d075cd5851892c4dd1985edb9c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="2025101711108_276afec1bdbd37497572939a4eada4bef74c9d075cd5851892c4dd1985edb9c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1953" height="1107" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal NT"> </figure>  However, booking numbers at both auto shows did not necessarily translate into actual deliveries. The fact remains that almost 80% of registered vehicles in Nepal are still two-wheelers, and GDP per capita stands at just $1500 — among the lowest in the world.&nbsp; This means that early first-adopters are first-time buyers, and the remaining customers in the market are more skeptical and less willing. But there are also those that are unlikely to consider the EV suitable to travel to off-road rural areas. For the average Nepali family, upgrading or purchasing a new car is no small decision. It happens in five years or more with resale values being a big determinant. The EV boom may be reaching saturation.&nbsp; Both NADA and NAIMA shows drove home the message that Nepal’s transport sector is on an electric fast-track, but the road ahead will be bumpy.&nbsp; Soon after the shows, the glacial debris flow on the Bhote Kosi knocked out the Rasuwa-Kerung border with China, and earlier landslides had already blocked the Koradi checkpoint. Manufacturers are now using the less convenient Korala border in Mustang. BYD, Leapmotor and Omoda &amp; Jaecoo have begun rerouting their vehicles to make up for delivery deadlines.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025101711108_62fd70a476656062005959c247b38178d8efabf8570c73929295c0a103ff4013.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="2025101711108_62fd70a476656062005959c247b38178d8efabf8570c73929295c0a103ff4013" data-rendition-name="original" width="1438" height="1031" loading="lazy" alt="Electric cars in Nepal NT"> </figure>  Although the distance from the capital to the Korala border (470km) is four times longer than from Rasuwa (128km) &nbsp;and Tatopani (112km), it is still considered faster and more cost effective than shipping via India using sea routes.&nbsp; And then Nepal was engulfed in turmoil after the youth-led protests of 8-9 September and its aftermath. Many automobile showrooms around Thapathali including Tata, Hyundai and CG were vandalised and torched.&nbsp; Sushila Karki leads a caretaker government till elections are held in March, and the unsettled situation will affect the economy and investment climate as well as the automobile sector. Arnav Upadhyay reviews automobiles and promotes road safety under the handle Casually Annoyed Driver on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@casuallyannoyeddriver" target="_blank">Youtube</a>, <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@casuallyannoyeddriver" target="_blank">Tiktok</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/casuallyannoyeddriver/" target="_blank">IG</a>, and this monthly column Drive Line in Nepali Times.

Is Nepal reaching peak EV?

Nepali Times: You just climbed Mt Everest without oxygen and then skied down the mountain. How does one even train for something like that?&nbsp; Andrzej Bargiel: What made skiing down Everest possible was all the years of experience I’ve gained in high-altitude mountains. Spending a lot of time in the high mountains helps me read the snow, the conditions, and potential hazards. I need to ski often, especially in steep and exposed terrain, so that it becomes a place where I feel completely at home.&nbsp; I also climb regularly, I am an IFMGA mountain guide. I also run, ride a bike, and work out in the gym. Like in any endurance sport, I have to prepare my body for the demands of an expedition.&nbsp; What motivated you to do Everest? This was actually my third attempt on Everest. After many years of ski mountaineering and racing, I felt it would be great to use that experience to take on a meaningful project in the Himalaya. It’s about exploring what’s really possible, testing my limits, and seeing how far I can go. I was inspired by people like Davo Karničar, Fredrik Ericsson, and Hans Kammerlander, who showed that skiing in the high mountains can truly be done.&nbsp; What do you have to be most careful about when skiing at such high altitude? You really have to manage your energy well, because you need to be ready to spend many hours at very high altitude — even above 8,000 meters. Risk management is essential. You have to read the signals nature gives you and make the right decisions, choosing safe moments to move. The dangers are always there: avalanches, crevasses, extreme fatigue, and exposed terrain, so you have to stay fully aware and focused. Safety comes first, always. You also need to stay open to changing your plans, because in the mountains, things don’t always go the way you expect.&nbsp; Why did you choose autumn and not spring?&nbsp; Autumn is really the only season when you can think about making a full ski descent from the summit all the way to base camp. In the spring there’s much more ice left after winter, and the snow cover is broken. A full descent simply isn’t possible then, because too much rock and ice are exposed. Of course, in spring it’s easier to climb the mountain. The conditions are more stable, the snow is firmer, there’s less avalanche risk, and you don’t have to wade through deep snow. The autumn ascent is very complex and demanding, which is why so few expeditions attempt it. But in autumn, skiing becomes possible. Several meters of fresh snow fall on Everest’s slopes, covering the rocks and ice, and that transforms the mountain into something wild, beautiful, and most importantly skiable. What was your favourite part this time? The moment I remember most fondly was reaching the summit — and that first stretch just below the top, when I clicked into my skis and started moving down through surprisingly nice snow. It felt smooth and natural, a kind of free, easy glide down toward the Hillary Step. I could feel the movement, the flow, and at the same time this awareness that I was skiing from the highest point on Earth. It was just a really good feeling. The Icefall was another special moment. I felt from a skier’s point of view that it really worked. I could make my turns, and the descent itself was fun, technical, but a beautiful one too — full of variety, weaving through ice towers and seracs that looked incredible in the sunlight. It was challenging, but also just pure joy.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251015141012_e9e671e07b089a7d59e4b9ba34df993180ae2dfcae3786113a4d48c515427b3d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251015141012_e9e671e07b089a7d59e4b9ba34df993180ae2dfcae3786113a4d48c515427b3d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1365" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Andrzej Bargiel NT"> </figure>  And what was most challenging? The hardest moment came on 14 September, during our first summit push attempt. We were breaking trail in deep snow and reached the South Col in the evening. I already knew we wouldn’t be going higher that night, so I decided to stay there, to use the climb to acclimatise.&nbsp; But after that attempt failed, the team completely lost faith that the project could still succeed. Almost everyone started packing up, convinced it was over, nobody thought that the snow would stabilise enough.&nbsp; I skied down from the Col early the next morning in really good conditions, while the rest of the team descended on foot. Rebuilding belief within the team that it could still be done was the toughest part, mentally. It took me several days to bring that energy and motivation back, to make everyone believe again that we could try once more. What was your support crew like?&nbsp; I want to thank the whole team — all team members from Poland, all those who contributed to the project, all the sponsors, and the Seven Summit Treks crew, especially Dawa Sherpa, who had the courage to go to the top with me.&nbsp; In the end, his courage made it possible. Doing it alone would have been almost impossible. With him there, I felt safe, and that made all the difference. What potential for skiing do you see in the Himalaya?&nbsp; Huge. There’s massive potential here both for ski touring and for a more recreational form of skiing. In the Himalaya, there are so many mountains you can ski from, and they don’t have to be eight-thousanders.&nbsp; There is an incredible amount of snow even in the lower valleys during the winter, which makes it a really interesting place for skiing. You can find great powder and enjoy long, wide runs.&nbsp; The key, I think, is to keep developing local guiding structures. There should be more certified guides in Nepal, Sherpas gaining guiding qualifications, and a proper professional rescue service. That would definitely increase the sense of safety for both skiers and tourists coming to the mountains. I’d love to come back to the Himalayas one winter just to ski in those lower parts — in deep snow, on much longer and wider skis – that would be pure pleasure. At those lower altitudes, the fun can be so much greater, with a more relaxed, freeride kind of feeling.

demographic-shift

Tech and transition in Nepal

Nepal in the 2020s

Retrofitting Nepal for future shocks

What makes a Nepali?

Is Nepal reaching peak EV?

The man who skied down Everest