<img width="1492" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d07e79c7e80680e0a5fe8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Twenty-three million children worldwide missed out on basic vaccines through routine immunisation services in 2020, 3.7 million more than in 2019, due to Covid induced global service disruptions, a <a href="https://www.who.int/data/immunization" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">latest survey by the WHO and UNICEF</a> has revealed.
Up to 17 million of these children likely did not receive a single vaccine during the year, widening already immense inequities in vaccine access. Most of these children live in communities affected by conflict and in under-served remote places with limited access to health facilities, food and hygiene.
“Even as countries clamour to get their hands on Covid-19 vaccines, we have gone backward on other vaccinations, leaving children at risk from devastating but preventable diseases like measles, polio or meningitis,” says Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. 
He adds: “Multiple disease outbreaks would be catastrophic for communities and health systems already battling Covid-19, making it more urgent than ever to invest in childhood vaccination and ensure every child is reached.”
Disruptions in immunisation services were widespread in 2020, with the WHO Southeast Asian and Eastern Mediterranean Regions most affected. As compared with 2019, 3.5 million more children missed their first dose of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis vaccine (DTP-1) while 3 million more children missed their first measles dose. 
During the first wave in 2020, villages in Nepal’s Dhading and Gorkha districts suffered outbreaks of measles because families were unable to vaccinate their children either because the health post was closed due to the pandemic, parents were concerned about Covid-19 transmission, or the lockdown prevented travel to health posts. 
“This evidence should be a clear warning. The Covid-19 pandemic and related disruptions cost us valuable ground we cannot afford to lose and the consequences will be paid in the lives and wellbeing of the most vulnerable,” says UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore. 
She adds: “The pandemic has made a bad situation worse. With the equitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines at the forefront of everyone’s minds, we must remember that vaccine distribution has always been inequitable, but it does not have to be.”
Even prior to the pandemic, global childhood vaccination rates against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, measles and polio had stalled for several years at around 86%. 
This rate is well below the 95% recommended by WHO to protect against measles, often the first disease to resurge when children are not reached with vaccines, and insufficient to stop other vaccine-preventable diseases. Just two years ago, there were widespread measles outbreaks.
“This is a wake-up call, we cannot allow a legacy of Covid-19 to be the resurgence of measles, polio and other killers,” says Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “We all need to work together to help countries both defeat Covid-19, by ensuring global, equitable access to vaccines, and get routine immunisation programs back on track.” 
School closures due to the pandemic have also affected vaccinations against human papillomavirus (HPV), which protect girls against cervical cancer later in life. Globally only 13% of girls were vaccinated against HPV, falling from 15% in 2019, which means 1.6 million missed out on the shot in 2020.
Nepal government had introduced the HPV vaccine for all girls aged between 11-13 years as part of the regular immunisation program in 2019.
The WHO, UNICEF and Gavi are working together to restore services and vaccination campaigns by ensuring that Covid-19 vaccine delivery is independently planned for and financed and that it occurs alongside, and not at the cost of childhood vaccination services while also strengthening immunisation systems as part of pandemic recovery efforts.
The Global Immunisation Agenda 2030 aims to achieve 90% coverage for essential childhood vaccines, halve the number of entirely unvaccinated children, and increase the uptake of newer lifesaving vaccines such as rotavirus or pneumococcus in low and middle-income countries.

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Pandemic hits non-Covid vaccines for children

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636badaf9c7e80680e077fabjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>On Friday, it will be four months since Nepal closed the country down to prevent the spread of  SARS-CoV-2, the virus strain that causes COVID-19. Of the 40 who have died of the infection in Nepal, two are children below 5.But many more children have died during the four months of lockdown compared to the same period last year because of lack of access to health care due to the restriction on mobility, interrupted vaccination campaigns and the lack of medicines.However, the coronavirus grabs all the headlines. Mortality due to non-COVID-19 causes does not make the news – even though it is clear that a lockdown enforced to control one disease has caused far more deaths from other prevalent diseases, and threatens to undermine Nepal’s progress in infant and child survival over the past four decades.“The COVID-19 crisis and lockdown have pushed many families into poverty, many have lost their sources of income, l<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/eu-unicef-support-child-nutrition-during-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">eading to malnourishment among children</a>,” says Jhalak Gautam of the Child Health Division at the Health Ministry. “Increased malnutrition means children are more susceptible not only to COVID-19 but to many other infectious diseases such as measles and diphtheria.”Under-5 child mortality rate in Nepal had declined substantially from 271 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1969 to 32 in 2018. Government figures show that since 17 July 2018-16 July 2019, a total of 1,357 children under 5 died of various infectious diseases all over the country. Preliminary figures for the same period 2019-2020 is 1,263 – even though only 78% of the data has been collected.Initial government figures also show that a total of 204 children under 5 have died across the country during the lockdown between 14 March-14 June. This number was at a much lower 151 during the same period last year.This data clearly show that the total child death numbers collected by Female Health Care Volunteers is higher this year — meaning they died at home. The number of those who have died at hospital in the same three months this year is lower than last year probably because parents are not taking children to hospital when they are sick during the lockdown.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141140/636badb39c7e80680e077facjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1714" height="1210"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>An expert at the Health Information Management System says when all the data for this year comes in, it is bound to be much higher than last year. This means the lockdown has pushed Nepal back in meeting its health targets under the United Nations’ SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals).Under the SDG target, Nepal is supposed to bring child mortality down further to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Persistent childhood malnutrition is a major reason for infant and child mortality remaining high despite dramatic progress in the 1990s. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nearly-half-of-nepali-children-still-malnourished/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Figures for stunting, wasting and anaemia in Nepal have plateaued in the last decade</a>  Now, the lockdown has added to the challenge.Says Elke Wisch, UNICEF Representative to Nepal: “Progress made on children’s nutrition in the last decade is at risk of being reversed as rising numbers of children are facing malnutrition due to loss of household income and resulting food insecurity. The social and economic loss for Nepal resulting from the deterioration in children’s nutrition status will be felt long after the COVID 19 crisis is over.”The lockdown has also disrupted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination campaigns</a> across the country, leading to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/meanwhile-a-measles-outbreak-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">measles outbreaks in Dhading and Gorkha</a> in April. Although regular immunisation services have now been restored in health facilities in all 77 districts, parents have been unable to take their children for shots because of restrictions on transportation and also because of the fear of COVID-19 transmission in health posts.In fact, the WHO and UNICEF earlier this week stated that preliminary data for the first four months of 2020 points to a <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/15-07-2020-who-and-unicef-warn-of-a-decline-in-vaccinations-during-covid-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial drop in the number of children completing three doses of the vaccine</a> against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP3), first time in 28 years. Moreover, at least 30 measles vaccination campaigns were or are at risk of being cancelled, which could result in further outbreaks in 2020 and beyond.“Vaccines are one of the most powerful tools in the history of public health, and more children are now being immunised than ever before,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “But the pandemic has put those gains at risk. The avoidable suffering and death caused by children missing out on routine immunizations could be far greater than COVID-19 itself.”With schools closed for the past four months, children in many schools are also not getting their lunches. Domestic violence has also seen a spike during the lockdown, with many of the victims children. There is also evidence of a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/child-marriages-up-during-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rise in child marriage</a>  anxiety, stress and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/post-pandemic-mental-health-epidemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mental disorder</a>Nepal appears to be on track to proving correct the grim prediction in May by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health that 1.2 million children worldwide could die from pre-existing diseases like malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea in the next six months due to the disruption to health services and food supplies due to the lockdown. That makes <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pre-existing-diseases-may-kill-more-children/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">6,000 fatalities a day</a> – a whopping 45% rise in child mortality.“Under a worst-case scenario, the global number of children dying before their fifth birthdays could increase for the first time in decades,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore warned. “We must not let mothers and children become collateral damage in the fight against the virus. And we must not let decades of progress on reducing preventable child and maternal deaths be lost.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141140/636badb69c7e80680e077fadjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Another aspect of the pandemic that Nepal has to be careful about is that while worldwide data show that children are relatively safe from contracting SARC CoV-2 which has mainly affected people above 70 years, in Nepal children also seem vulnerable.Health Ministry data show that the rate of infection among children below 5 is 2.2% and increasing – much higher than the global average. The infection rate among young children was at just 1% a month and a half ago.Many of the infected children belong to families who returned from India in the past three months, but children have also been infected by people who flouted lockdown rules and safety measures. This is why Far-west Province has the highest coronavirus infection rate among children at 5%.Nepal has also seen a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/why-are-younger-people-in-poor-countries-dying-of-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disproportionate number of COVID-19 infections and mortality among a younger population</a>  Experts say this is mainly due to young returnee migrant workers from India, Malaysia and the Gulf, who make for the majority of the coronavirus cases in the country. Moreover, testing across the country so far has focused on returnees.“Unlike elsewhere, in Nepal people with co-morbidity have a higher risk of dying regardless of the age group, and this is worrying,” says epidemiologist Sher Bahadur Pun of the Health Ministry. “But we must widen our testing to come to a concrete conclusion about this. So, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">until we have a vaccine</a> we must wear masks, maintain physical distance and follow hand hygiene. This includes children.”

Sonia Awale

Children are collateral damage in Nepal lockdown

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

diptheria

Pandemic hits non-Covid vaccines for children

Children are collateral damage in Nepal lockdown

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138