This late monsoon storm was not a surprise. Weather forecasts had warned of heavy precipitation a week before, the Met Office predicted heavy rain on 27-28 September, SMS warned people to take precaution, radio stations issued bulletins, and night buses were banned in 56 districts.&nbsp; The tragedy was compounded because we knew what was coming, and did not do enough to prepare. The accurate weather forecast made no real difference on the ground. When it started raining on Thursday morning and did not stop till Saturday, there was no sense of the scale of this emergency. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">More than 200 people lost their lives, dozens are still missing.</a> Thousands of homes were swept away, Nepal lost nearly half its electricity generation capacity because of damage to power plants, Kathmandu has been nearly cut off with bridges and sections of highways swept away. Yes, this was primarily a natural disaster. Kathmandu Valley and its surroundings got half the average annual precipitation in just 40 hours, the heaviest rainfall measured since records started being kept in 1972. But the high death toll was totally manmade.&nbsp; Three buses were buried by a mudslide in Dhading, killing at least 35 people. This was an eerie reminder of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/100-101-102-hh5uvzf9">Simaltal accident on 12 July </a>when two intercity buses were swept by a mudflow into the Trisuli River at night, killing 62. The buses have still not been found.&nbsp; In both cases, heavy rainfall on a poorly engineered local road up the mountains triggered the initial landslide that swept debris to the highway below. This was manslaughter, not an ‘accident’.&nbsp; We said it then, and we are saying it now: most mountain roads follow no reason or science. It is a corruption-fed activity in which local governments and their cronies plan roads ad hoc and rent their own bulldozers. Debris accumulated during construction is dumped over the edge, where monsoon rains wash them to settlements, farms and highways below. Last weekend’s disaster is a warning that accurate weather early warning is just the first step – it is not enough to prevent a huge loss of life. After the warnings, there should have been door-to-door miking along hazardous river banks urging people to move to higher ground, shelters should have been in place, rescue equipment and rafts pre-positioned, live monitoring of precipitation in the catchments. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) was just posting situationers on social media. The Home Ministry became a Ministry of Condolences and Empty Promises.&nbsp; This disaster is a reminder of the 1993 Central Nepal cloudburst that hit the Lothar Khola in Chitwan, the Kulekhani areas, and highways blocked highways marooning Kathmandu for weeks. More than 1,300 people were killed.&nbsp; The death toll in Kathmandu this time was compounded by the fact that the city has spread into the floodplains of the Vishnumati, Manohara and other tributaries of the Bagmati. Natural waterways have been hemmed in by streets. The rivers were just reclaiming what was theirs.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240930150944_1221b4fb442a21e8d2dbf1aeeca61b7a8d791c117d6a93401f15ba2a95d49a69.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240930150944_1221b4fb442a21e8d2dbf1aeeca61b7a8d791c117d6a93401f15ba2a95d49a69" data-rendition-name="original" width="1949" height="1299" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal floods"> <figcaption>Kathmandu Valley, especially its southern fringes looks like an epicentre of a major quake following the rains. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Urban pressure has also forced settlements to move up the Valley’s rim, below steep hillsides with topsoil already saturated in the late monsoon. The torrential downpours caused the slopes to fail. The damage to Upper Tamakosi and dozens of other hydropower plants also is a warning not to put all our eggs in one basket. The Sikkim disaster exactly this time last year was proof that these are at high risk from glacial lake floods and landslide dammed rivers suddenly bursting. More logical would be to build smaller, better designed, plants on many rivers. The Himalaya is also the youngest and most fragile mountain range on earth, Nepal has always had either too much or too little water, and climate breakdown is making this contrast more extreme. Combined, this means we in Nepal live in a multi-disaster prone country with seismic, hydrological and climate risks.&nbsp; After multiple floods in early 1990s, a Japanese grant helped set up the Disaster Prevention Technical Centre (DPTC) in Pulchowk, which was later renamed the Department of Water Induced Disaster Management. We have not heard much from them lately. With the government AWOL, it is ordinary Nepalis who have shown extraordinary courage in saving those being swept by flood water, rescuing babies on canoes (pictured), or digging for passengers trapped in buses buried by landslides. The Nepal Army and the Police rescued thousands, but there was an absence of coordination.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240930150944_cb55edb93eb3aad169b22bc4dec06b5478746fbe75417c628bf671ec698f7912.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240930150944_cb55edb93eb3aad169b22bc4dec06b5478746fbe75417c628bf671ec698f7912" data-rendition-name="original" width="1080" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal floods"> <figcaption>Photo: SOCIAL MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Now, the attention must focus on urgent relief and rehabilitation. But that might be a tall ask just before everything shuts down for Dasain, and when governance fails, lack of accountability and transparency is the norm even without holidays.&nbsp; Sonia Awale

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When it rains it pours

The hallmark of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/mustang-forced-to-adapt-to-climate-crisis">climate breakdown in the Himalaya</a> is that it does not rain when and where it is supposed to, but pours at the wrong time in areas it ought not to. The trans-Himalayan Mustang region has had successive snowless winters but has experienced heavy monsoon downpours most characteristic of the southern foothills. But local and national governments seem ill-prepared to deal with this anomaly. The lack of readiness was seen in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/smoke-screen">unprecedented wildfires in March-April</a>, which was partly due to a long winter drought. Soon, the monsoon will be upon us and the government appears to be doing little more than quantifying the death and destruction from floods and landslides. On 13 August 2023, Namyak Gurung of Kagbeni in Mustang saw a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/remembering-the-seti-disaster">flash flood </a>that he had never seen in his 50-year life. Cloudbursts the day before set off landslides that dammed the Kag Khola, a tributary of the Kali Gandaki. &nbsp; The lake burst, destroying 30 of the 125 houses in the village. A police station, monasteries, bridges, a hospital, and a school were damaged. No one was killed because there were warning calls from people upstream. Nearly a year later, Kagbeni still looks like a war zone and the people dread the coming rainy season.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024052105050_0d7573f0ee787c01a56237486f98b6f2230ca3d3b6a9c778ce16841ba753e94c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2024052105050_0d7573f0ee787c01a56237486f98b6f2230ca3d3b6a9c778ce16841ba753e94c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Kagbeni flood"> </figure>  “I couldn’t leave the place of my ancestors," says Namyak who has relocated to his brother’s place after his two-storied building was destroyed. “I’m now building my new house a long way above the river. But I keep getting nightmares of another flood.”&nbsp; Tenzing Gurung, 36, was rescued from the second floor of her lodge in Kagbeni. Grey sand and boulders still cover the yard and the river now runs through what used to be the gate to her lodge. “I had never thought something like this could happen here,” says Tenzing. “We are scared, but where can we go?” The flood also damaged the local Janashanti Secondary School where two of Tenzing’s sons study. The school needs immediate relocation, but nothing has been done. “I just pray that the next flood doesn’t happen when my sons are in school,” adds Tenzing. Mustang and Manag districts are supposed to be in the Himalayan rainshadow, but <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come">precipitation patterns are changing</a>. Light monsoon rains have turned into destructive torrents followed by long periods of drought. In June 2021, Manang got all of its average annual rainfall of 300mm in just one week. A wall of water, mud, boulders and logs rushed down the Marsyangdi River, washing away the highway, bridges, settlements and other infrastructure in Taal and Chame villages. “We have seen that the trans-Himalayan regions are now getting more rain than before, the whole rainfall pattern has changed,” says meteorologist Rajendra Sharma of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). He adds: “In the past, when it rained in Mustang, it happened gently over a period of time but now, we get everything in a day or two. Such heavy downpours increase the risk of floods and landslides.”&nbsp; In the last 10 years, a total of 1,500 floods, 2,500 landslides, and 1,549 high rainfall events occurred across the country and killed 2,141 people, second only to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. Yet the state appears ill-prepared to prevent the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">loss of life and damage</a> — even though not all the destruction can be blamed solely on climate breakdown.&nbsp; “From the Manang and Melamchi floods in 2021 to last year’s Mustang, all of these are weather-related disasters, and the rate of these incidents has increased due to climate change,” says climate expert Dharma Upreti. Although climatologists do not directly blame individual disasters on climate change, they say there is a correlation between rising global temperatures, higher sea surface temperatures contributing to more water vapour in the atmosphere.&nbsp; The Himalaya is also heating faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. Melting mountains also pose the additional risk of glacial lake outbursts and avalanches.&nbsp; The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has projected above-normal rainfall for Nepal this monsoon. And with less than a month before the onset of the rains, Nepal is not prepared. And here in Kagbeni, people have still not recovered from last year’s disaster. The NDRRMA’s primary focus is post-disaster humanitarian aid and relief such as stockpiling food, medicines, tents, electricity supply and connectivity — <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disastrous-preparedness">not so much on preparedness</a>. “We do not have sufficient resources to manage damage caused by disasters year after year, the local government should step up,” says NDRRMA chief Anil Pokhrel. The lack of preparedness and coordination between line agencies means slow response to floods. Local governments are first responders, but do not have the financial support or technical know-how to deal with disasters on their own. Says district administrator Hom Bahadur Thapa Magar in Kagbeni: “Another monsoon is coming, and given what happened last year, we urgently need to build embankments but we do not have the resources or manpower to do so.”

Soon, monsoon

It was a bright Saturday morning on 5 May 2012, and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19285" target="_blank">Capt Alexander Maximov </a>of Avia Club was flying a tourist on a blue two-seater plane on a sightseeing flight of the Annapurnas. Looking down at the Seti River, he noticed that the water was not its usual white. There was a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" target="_blank">wall of dark debris racing down the river</a> trailed by a brown ribbon of floating logs. Maximov used to fly MiGs in the Soviet Air Force, and recognised it as a massive flash flood. He radioed Pokhara tower, and the air traffic controller called up the security forces who immediately informed the city’s FM stations. This early warning saved many lives, but 72 people were still killed 12 years ago this week in the Seti tragedy.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240511030512_10f6fca68c0a4b2f3c762b6dc2ef073b6eab4fd37f13b4977421c3705eb9efc9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240511030512_10f6fca68c0a4b2f3c762b6dc2ef073b6eab4fd37f13b4977421c3705eb9efc9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2350" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Screenshot of video taken by remote camera of a plane (left) piloted by Capt Alexander Maximov (right) of Avia Club Nepal. </figcaption> </figure>  The plane had a remote video camera on its wingtip which had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19285" target="_blank">recorded the source of this flood</a>: a massive rockfall near the summit of Annapurna IV that sent a cloud of brown dust billowing up to the sky. <a href="https://sandrp.in/2014/01/26/explained-seti-river-floods-in-may-2012-nepal-a-chain-of-events-starting-at-25000-feet/" target="_blank">Scientists have since pieced together</a> the sequence of events and found that ice and rock fell more than 5,000m causing a lake impounded in the Seti’s canyon by a smaller rockfall the previous week to burst. This event set in motion a large debris flow 10m high racing down the river. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/82937/making-sense-of-nepals-seti-river-disaster" target="_blank">Geologists say </a>the entire south face of the Annapurna massif is inherently unstable, so this was not the first flash flood to come down the rivers, and nor will it be the last. Climate breakdown may make such disasters even more frequent, with consequences for settlements and infrastructure downstream. The latest study by geologist Narayan Gurung three years ago made a hazard map of the Seti in case a similar flood should happen again. The reason is that the 7,525 Annapurna IV is said to be the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokhara-800-years-ago" target="_blank">remnant of a 500m higher peak that collapsed</a>, probably during a mega earthquake in 1255CE.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_a4366bcc1cdf1364986ad04661dc14757ddc39009236afd887be5fa7add06dda.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2024051103054_a4366bcc1cdf1364986ad04661dc14757ddc39009236afd887be5fa7add06dda" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="480" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>The flood as it approached crushers collecting boulders on the river bed as the water arrived at the Pokhara-Baglung Highway. Photo: ALEXANDER MAXIMOV/AVIA CLUB NEPAL</figcaption> </figure>  Deposits of that mountain collapse trapped ice and water in the headwaters of the Seti called the Sabche Cirque, which periodically burst, unleashing a series of mega floods more than 100m high. Pokhara today is situated on the debris fan of that cataclysm that also blocked side rivers and created Phewa, Rupa, Begnas and other lakes. Carbon dating of buried trees match historical records of a major earthquake in Nepal in 1255CE that also killed King Abhaya Malla of Kathmandu. Since then, there are geological signs of other major floods on the Seti, Madi, Mardi and Modi rivers that drain the southern flanks of Annapurna.&nbsp; Scientists warn that future floods on the Seti pose a major risk to Pokhara city and reservoir projects like Tanahu Hydropower and Upper Seti that are under construction on the river.&nbsp; “Another major earthquake in the region would easily mobilise the sediment in the Sabche Cirque and unleash another sudden flood,” says geologist Krishna KC. “Pokhara must have a hazard map, and strictly enforce zoning laws.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_40a6fe0195466a5274d40dbbe3f043a3b253ac443622784040fe227205e3f582.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024051103054_40a6fe0195466a5274d40dbbe3f043a3b253ac443622784040fe227205e3f582" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>A photograph taken at 9:38AM on 5 May 2012 at the point where Seti bursts into Pokhara Valley from its gorge.</figcaption> </figure>  The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has a district chapter in Kaski that has classified 10 of Pokhara’s wards as well as Annapurna and Machapuchre rural municipalities being at high risk from floods and landslides. But urban pressure means that people are building houses in high risk areas along the Seti’s terraces, and Pokhara Metropolis has been unable to prevent it. In the 2012 disaster, Pokara’s Annapurna FM was among the radio stations broadcasting urgent messages to people to move to higher ground. The station then worked with the government in search, rescue and relief. “But we are not prepared for another disaster like this, in fact it could be worse next time because there are now more people living along the very river banks that were swept away twelve years ago,” says Dipendra Shrestha of Annapurna FM. The sheer west face of Annapurna IV is still highly unstable, and has constant rockfalls that block the Seti, of which the 2012 event was a particularly big one. Says Prithvi Narayan Campus geography professor Ramji Pokhrel: “The Seti is a permanent danger, we must be strict about allowing settlements along its banks. But that is not happening.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_c23f1a9113a1140a9fbecd2c92a1769062e42382ce0e6fc78e5ae7b3e306eadd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2024051103054_c23f1a9113a1140a9fbecd2c92a1769062e42382ce0e6fc78e5ae7b3e306eadd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1120" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Seti River. Photo: DURGA RANA MAGAR</figcaption> </figure>  Climate breakdown makes the risk more real because of more frequent rockfalls, avalanches and extreme precipitation in the headwaters of the Seti. Geologist Krishna KC says all this does not mean that Pokhara is too dangerous to live in since there is no place on Earth that is without threat. But he adds, “The idea is to minimise the threat, take measures to adapt to the risk factors.”&nbsp; It was Saturday, and downstream in Kharapani people were bathing in the hot springs, and washing laundry on the banks of the Seti. Many had not heard the warnings, or did not heed it.&nbsp; Kharapani has been wiped off the map, and there is a memorial column here for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-Seti,362" target="_blank">those who died that day</a> and those still missing. It is also a testimony to the tragedy that struck here 12 years ago, and a &nbsp;stark reminder that, given the topography of the Annapurnas, it is best to be prepared for another big flood.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240510200512_fd6d6709d96608bac46e16a50b3acff4907f612868f75972b4ff120743f39482.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20240510200512_fd6d6709d96608bac46e16a50b3acff4907f612868f75972b4ff120743f39482" data-rendition-name="original" width="1074" height="710" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> </figure>  <ol> <li>At 9:10am on 5 May 2012, a huge chunk of ice and rock breaks off the south ridge of Annapurna IV.</li> <li>A remote camera on the wing of a sightseeing plane captures the dust cloud from the rockfall.</li> <li>The debris fell 3,000m first into an ice shelf and then into a lake impounded by a smaller rockfall the previous week, preceded by an air blast that flattened trees down valley.&nbsp;</li> <li>The Sabche Cirque contains eroded sediments from a possible collapse of Paleo-Annapurna IV 800 years ago.</li> <li>The Seti gorge is hundreds of metres deep but only a few metres wide.</li> <li>Possible location of impounded lake.</li> <li>The combined force of the water and melted ice from the avalanche races downstream.</li> <li>Kharapani</li> </ol> <h2>Lucky ones …</h2> The sun was shining that hot Saturday morning on 5 May 12 years ago, and families in the village of Sandal were on the banks of the Seti, bathing and washing. Children were swimming to cool off. The monsoon was more than a month away, and a flood was the last thing in the minds of people. Sandal, 20km north of Pokhara, is a recent settlement, and the inhabitants are mostly from the Tamang and Magar communities. This is the last settlement along the Seti, upstream from here the gorge is narrow and wild.&nbsp; Because they migrated here from outside, the inhabitants did not have inter-generational memory of floods, and the 11 households lived close to the river. Even 12 years after the deadly flood, Sandal still bears signs of the devastation with massive boulders strewn along the riverbed. Dilmaya Pun had neighbours over at her house to help out with work, and food preparation was late that morning. The guests were getting impatient, but it was this delay that saved their lives.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_94aaf35b21633bd4ea69bf446e6571aa8a33e8b4d4780945a62588964cf771e3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="2024051103054_94aaf35b21633bd4ea69bf446e6571aa8a33e8b4d4780945a62588964cf771e3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2196" height="1494" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Dilmaya Pun, who survived because of delays in cooking a meal. Photos: DURGA RANA MAGAR</figcaption> </figure>  “We were all preparing to go down to the river to volunteer in building a temporary log bridge, and if the food had arrived in time we would have been right there in the path of the flood,” Dilmaya says. A neighbour, Sanu Magar, still cannot believe her luck. “It was a weekend and the kids were joining the team putting together the bridge. Thank goodness the food was late.”&nbsp; The survivors remember the flood approaching with a thunderous roar in a wall of angry grey water that immediately swept away the logs for the bridge, corn fields and two houses. Dilmaya and Sanu gathered their children and ran to higher ground and watched their homes being washed away. Relief agencies resettled them higher up at Khobang where they built small makeshift huts, and did odd jobs since the land there was not suitable for farming. But after four years, the fear subsided somewhat and they returned to Sandal. There is now a new metal suspension bridge, and better off residents have moved to Pokhara or gone abroad. Only the elderly and children are left. In 2012, Uttam Tamang was 14 years old. He remembers watching in horror as the pasty sludge washed away the nearby market town of Kharapani. He says: “I will never forget that frightening day, it was just chance that saved me.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_8cb7686e7172e6f97f8f9b0402578169aa392bab84bc767a078d52f646971617.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="2024051103054_8cb7686e7172e6f97f8f9b0402578169aa392bab84bc767a078d52f646971617" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1155" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Uttam Tamang, who is still traumatised by what he saw 12 years ago as a boy. </figcaption> </figure>  Since it was a holiday he had walked from Sandal to the hot spring at Kharapani for a dip. He remembers some foreign tourists and many locals bathing in the sulphurous hot water. Suddenly, someone shouted “Flood (बाढी) coming!” But many heard “Tiger (बाघ) coming!” And thought it was a joke, but Uttam saw the wall of grey water approaching and ran back up the hill. He was so traumatised that he was afraid even to go back to his home in Sandal, and went to live with relatives in Pokhara. He dropped out of school, and regrets not being in college by now.&nbsp; “I am happy I survived, but the Seti took away my future, it took away everything,” says Uttam, now 24. During the monsoon, Sandal’s families move together to higher ground in Khobang, but even there the Upper Seti hydropower is digging a tunnel and the dynamite blasts shake the whole area.&nbsp; <h2>… and not so lucky</h2> Twelve years ago, Kharapani was becoming a popular destination for foreign and Nepali visitors drawn by the hot spring. But in a matter of minutes that Saturday morning the entire market town was swept away. Of the 72 who perished that day, 69 were from Kharapani — three of them Ukrainian tourists.&nbsp; Min Bahadur Bhujel used to work as a labourer hammering stones for a construction contractor at the Bhujrung Khola confluence upstream from Kharapani. His wife Rama and daughter Dipa had tried to convince him not to go to work that day because it was time to plant corn.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_f692cfda299180e5fa59c74ac33e3b2fbd39e47115bf430ddd40b37e376ee862.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="2024051103054_f692cfda299180e5fa59c74ac33e3b2fbd39e47115bf430ddd40b37e376ee862" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1158" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Min Bahadur Bhujel's wife Rama Bhujel with a framed photo of her husband.</figcaption> </figure>  “I’ll go, at least I will earn some money,” Min Bahadur, who was 46 then, had said. That was the last his family saw of him. Dipa is now 28 and married, her brother is 23 and works as a driver. Both dropped out of school. The family had struggled after losing the sole earner. For Rama, the only hope is now from her children, she looks lovingly at a framed photo of her husband and says, “All I have now is this picture of him.” Kumari BK also has a framed photo of her son, Anil who at age 15 was already aware of his responsibility to take care of his family. He worried about the hardship his mother faced raising him and his brother.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_8ef506a7578fe5cb8e7c5bf17bef6fd56a15371d70fa1d708797b2e125030945.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="2024051103054_8ef506a7578fe5cb8e7c5bf17bef6fd56a15371d70fa1d708797b2e125030945" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1165" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Kumari BK with a photograph of her 15-year-old son Anil who was swept away.</figcaption> </figure>  He was not going to school regularly, and saw no reason to. That Saturday he had gone down to the river to crush stones. “He went to earn a little daily wage so he could take care of us, but he left us for good,” Kumari says. “By now he would have been earning enough to take care of us.” Even more than the bereavement of the family of those who were killed that day is the unending grief of the families of those whose bodies were never found. They know their relatives are gone, but there is still a sliver of hope.&nbsp; Gopal Tamrakar, who was 71 at the time, and his son and daughter-in-law owned a shop in Kharapani, and were making a decent living. Gopal had come to meet his son Kalyan briefly, and headed down to the market. That was the last the family saw of Gopal. Now there is only a photo on Kalyan’s mobile phone. Kalyan’s brother was also caught in the flood. He held on to his wife, Basundhara, and daughter with both hands but the force of the water took his wife away. Basundhara’s body was never found. Kalyan’s brother has not been the same since.

Remembering the Seti disaster

The 7.2M Taiwan earthquake on 3 April was a reminder for us here in Nepal about the importance of preparation with up to code infrastructure, earthquake early warning sensors hooked to mobile &nbsp;networks, seismic risk education in schools, and swift emergency response.&nbsp;
Although 13 people were killed, readiness saved lives. Skyscrapers shook and swayed but did not fall, high-rises tilted but did not collapse. A similar intensity earthquake in Taiwan in 1999 had killed 2,400 people. &nbsp;
This week marks nine years since Nepal’s 2015 earthquakes that killed nearly 9,000 people. It has been four months since a 6.4M quake <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">struck Jajarkot and West Rukum</a> near midnight on 3 November, claiming 153 lives.&nbsp;
In the immediate aftermath of 2015, building codes, earthquake-resistant designs and retrofitting became high priority. But as memories fade, so does the fear. Nine years on, buildings <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-of-high-rises">including high-rises that flout zoning and building codes</a> have come up in Kathmandu while <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-occupation-of-tundikhel">open spaces have further shrunk</a>.&nbsp;
Himalayan seismologists have warned that 2015 was not the Big One, the kind of quake that hits central Nepal every 80 or so years. Neither was Jajarkot the megaquake scientists had expected in western Nepal’s seismic gap. As we have been saying in this paper for the last 24 years, the next big earthquake is ‘not a matter of if, but when’.
While the 14 districts affected by the 2015 disaster have now mostly been rebuilt, and are better prepared, the rest of the country is not. A &gt;8M megaquake in Western Nepal would be a trans-boundary disaster of unthinkable proportions.
In Jajarkot and West Rukum, many <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/jajarkot-survivors-show-collective-resilience">survivors spent the winter </a>without a roof over their heads, and they still await relief to rebuild. The National &nbsp;Reconstruction Authority (NRA) might have taken nine months to set up after the 2015 earthquake, but that disaster should have been a lesson for timely assessment for earthquake relief at the very least.
Nepal is a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">landmine of disasters</a>. Nearly 350 people have died just in the past year in floods, landslides, lightning, and forest fires, and not including Jajarkot. We are now in the thick of wildfire season. Hundreds of forest fires are burning across the country, some for weeks. Three fire-fighting soldiers and three children picking mushrooms were killed by wind-fanned flames just in the past week.&nbsp;
The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-suffers-another-winter-drought">prolonged winter drought</a> should have warned us that this year, the fires would be much worse. But adding fuel to the fires, as it were, is the new trend of burning wheat straw after harvest by farmers.&nbsp;
Fire is always followed by flood, and this year, weather models predict above-normal monsoon precipitation. As it is, monsoons have become erratic with extreme downpours followed by weeks without rain. Mohan Mainali’s ongoing series in Nepali Times <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/people-and-mountains-are-thirsty-in-eastern-nepal">analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal </a>shows that Nepal has always suffered from either too little or too much water, and this has contributed to outmigration.
Landslides triggered by heavy rainfall along Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">poorly designed roads</a> in never-ending states of construction magnify the risk. Landslides can also frequently block rivers, which raises the need for early warning systems.
And if all this was not bad enough, we have the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">threat of GLOFs </a>from glacial lakes swollen with ice melted by climate breakdown. The water level in the Tso Rolpa glacial lake in Rolwaling was reduced by 3m in 2002, and the water level of Imja Lake was lowered after the 2015 earthquake to mitigate the risk of GLOFs. But these lakes continue to expand as the Himalaya warms 0.7oC faster than the global average.&nbsp;
Thulagi glacial lake below Himalchuli is another one in danger of bursting, and would wash away four hydropower projects downstream on the Marsyangdi River. A GLOF from the precariously situated Lake 464 in the Hinku Valley would race down the Dudh Kosi Valley, into the Sun Kosi and right down to the Tarai.&nbsp;
While these lakes are all dangerous by themselves, they could burst simultaneously during a major earthquake. Which means Nepal must be prepared not just for earthquakes, but the co-seismic risk of catastrophic debris flows along its rivers.&nbsp;
Disaster preparedness means knowing and acknowledging potential without spreading panic and crying wolf. And:&nbsp;
<ul>
 <li>Stockpiling and pre-positioning food and other relief materials</li>
 <li>Investing in search and rescue equipment and training</li>
 <li>Safety drills and earthquake education in schools</li>
 <li>Decentralised first responders with aerial medevac</li>
</ul>
Shristi Karki

Disastrous preparedness

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Exactly 90 years ago this week, Nepal was struck by the Great Earthquake of 1934 killing over 8,500 people across the country. In Kathmandu, 70% of the houses collapsed in the 8.3 magnitude disaster.&nbsp; To commemorate the event, 16 January is observed every year as National Earthquake Safety Day.&nbsp; Nepal has gone through many transitions in the past 90 years. From the Rana era to the 1950s interim years, to the Panchayat, the conflict and federal republic. Nepal has also experienced many other smaller seismic events, including the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake which ended up killing nearly 9,000 people and damaging some 800,000 buildings. And as the 3 November 2023 earthquake in Jajarkot showed, Nepal is still not prepared for these disasters. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/jajarkot-survivors-show-collective-resilience">Jajarkot survivors show collective resilience</a>, Durga Rana magar ‘There was a movement in the land similar to that of the waves in the water … the land seemed to twist and most of the buildings toppled. The movement was so strong … the trees bent down as during a hurricane,’ narrates Brahma Shumsher Rana in his book Nepal ko Mahabhukampa which came out later that year. Bramha Shumsher was the son of Major General Baber Shumsher and describes how the ground split sending fountains of hot water and sand shoot up. The Bagmati and the Vishnumati rivers turned black with dirty water.&nbsp; ‘Some sought support to keep themselves on their feet, while others ran like animals with their hands on the ground. Some mothers having come out into the open ground went back for the love of their children and were crushed to death… But even those men who ran away were not saved. The narrow streets and lanes in the towns became traps,’ the book says. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state"> In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240111100112_8f1bf4ab9e23ba750d2fab64f2c9140940f0c3d2b4796bb8f9e649c722cfd69d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240111100112_8f1bf4ab9e23ba750d2fab64f2c9140940f0c3d2b4796bb8f9e649c722cfd69d" data-rendition-name="original" width="812" height="380" loading="lazy" alt="Page 1 inset NT"> <figcaption>SHAKEN: Patan Darbar Square after the 1994 quake (inset), and the overlapping restoration following 2015. 1934 was 1990 in the Bikram Sambat calendar.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal is a seismically active zone and is struck by such earthquakes every 70-80 years. The 7.8M Gorkha quake in central Nepal in 2015 is often mistaken for one of those megaquakes. Himalayan seismologist Roger Bilham told Nepali Times then that it was not the big one which scientists had feared. In fact the faults in Central Nepal are still collecting energy and could be let off at any time. But even more imminent is the long seismic gap in western Nepal which did not dissipate all its energy in the November quake, says engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) - Nepal. The last big quake in western Nepal in 1505 is estimated to be 8.9M and killed one-third of Kathmandu Valley’s population including the king, devastated north India, and created the debris flow where Pokhara city is situated today. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/back-to-classroom-for-earthquake-preparedness">Back to classroom for earthquake preparedness</a>, Rachael Lau “Energy accumulated in western Nepal is big enough to cause an earthquake bigger than 8M, the Jajarkot earthquake released very minimal stress,” Shrestha explains. “This means there is still the possibility of a 1934 type event in Kathmandu, which could be deadlier because of the larger population.”&nbsp; The Himalayan Thrust fault system means a mega quake can happen anywhere in western Nepal from the Mahakali or Palpa. Either way, an 8M earthquake in western Nepal would immediately destroy 1.5 million buildings across the country and kill 100,000 people, if it struck at night. Hospitals would have collapsed too. Few still standing would be overwhelmed with some 200,000 individuals estimated to be seriously injured. Substandard schools and public buildings would go down like a house of cards. Electricity, highways, telecommunication and drinking water systems would be disrupted. The 2015 earthquake should have been a lesson to Nepalis to be prepared for a mega-quake, especially in terms of building safer structures. To be sure, 90% of the rebuilt structures do follow the government building code, but many in Kathmandu have blatantly flouted rules.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/be-prepared">Be prepared</a>, Editorial  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240111100120_3ba19345a7f38b98c58a30c0bdbcde099f254179a10c60c43a1ac954636853ee.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240111100120_3ba19345a7f38b98c58a30c0bdbcde099f254179a10c60c43a1ac954636853ee" data-rendition-name="original" width="524" height="451" loading="lazy" alt="1934 earthquake NT"> </figure>  “We have policies and legal frameworks in place but our preparedness is still negligible,” warns Shrestha. “The existing structures are already vulnerable but newer buildings even more so.”&nbsp; Following the 1934 earthquake, a geologist and engineer identified only as Mr Eden made some observations and gave a series of instructions regarding safe building in Nepal, which was published in Gorkhapatra at the time. He notes: ‘Bhaktapur, Harisiddhi, Khokana and Bungamati areas are liable to greatest destruction in an earthquake while Pashupatinath, Baudha and Gokarna are to be least feared. Syambhu and Kirtipur are similarly free from danger. In the Nepalese Terai, it is not advisable to build houses close to streams, rivers and tanks.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt">Lessons still not learnt</a>, Sonia Awale Eden also pushed for earthquake-proof buildings with details about what kind of buildings to construct and where. ‘The type of the soil is not the only factor that causes destruction in an earthquake. It also depends upon the structural design, the materials used and the skills of the builders,’ he is quoted as writing. Nearly a century ago, we already knew what to do. Concrete buildings are not necessarily stronger. In fact, substandard concrete buildings are even more of a death trap, especially given that Nepal does not have the search and rescue teams and equipment for such collapsed structures. Warns Shrestha: “A 8M earthquake will happen one day, and all these substandard buildings will come crashing down. It will be a calamity of epic proportions.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Rai

90 years after ’90

The 2015 earthquakes in Central Nepal that killed over 9,000 people had many lessons for us, most important of which was the need to be prepared for future disasters. After all, it was not a question of if there would be another quake, but when. And sure enough, it came with the 6.4 Jajarkot earthquake of 3 November. At least 160 people were killed outright, buried under the rubble of their fragile homes. Dozens more have died of cold and diseases since. After the 2015 disaster, there was a general consensus about putting safety measures into place: building seismic-resistant structures, retrofitting public buildings, and the need for emergency preparedness. Prior to this, there was no such understanding at the political level, within government or the public. Another big lesson learned was how a separate institution, independent from the regular government structure, can more effectively carry out reconstruction, post-disaster. Reconstruction was fraught with challenges, political interference being the foremost. But the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) coordinated effectively between internal and external assistance, and helped to carry out the process successfully. The NRA was also crucial in managing resources, setting guidelines, and developing a single goal-oriented approach that would incorporate everyone from the public to the Prime Minister. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grief-stricken-survivors-are-cold-and-hungry">Grief-stricken survivors are cold and hungry</a>, Sagar Budathoki But we did more than rebuild the houses. What was achieved was technology transfer on a massive scale, including knowledge about safe building even for mud-mortar, stone and wooden structures. It also showed us how to make cash distribution transparent and take it directly to the people with zero-tolerance for corruption. We created a National Consultative Council for all the political parties to work together as well as the bureaucracy, private sector, and civil society. At the district level, a mechanism was put in place for MPs and representatives from all three levels to collaborate. There were vertical and horizontal links between all levels. The NRA was superseded by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) in 2019 which has since put forward plans to make Nepal a disaster resilient country by 2030. Blueprints, frameworks and maps have been created for earthquake and flood preparedness and relief. They were submitted to the government, but it has been filed away with no action taken. As soon as the reconstruction work was complete, it seems we forgot about disaster preparedness. And so, when the Jajarkot earthquake struck, we were unprepared again. We cannot prevent or predict earthquakes, but we sure can prepare. Even so, all we seem to be capable of is to react after a disaster hits. More than 60,000 houses were partially or completely damaged in the Bajhang, Doti, and Jajarkot earthquakes that have struck in the past year. Most of the partially damaged houses have to be demolished. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231124081136_7326ad8a1402b30c2a9698697e9922a4dc54d5ad84a5bc0dc1a68e3d2da66c3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20231124081136_7326ad8a1402b30c2a9698697e9922a4dc54d5ad84a5bc0dc1a68e3d2da66c3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="1499" loading="lazy" alt="2023 Western Nepal earthquake NT"></figure>  The NDRRMA allocates Rs400,000 in subsidy for houses to be rebuilt in the mountains. This adds up to Rs24 billion, and if we add other expenses including technical assistance, technology transfer and others, the total comes to Rs30 billion. But if we had followed the preparedness plan, we could have retrofitted and made houses across Nepal safer at a lower cost. They could have withstood a moderate earthquake like the one in Jajarkot and the casualties would have been much lighter. What we had proposed was a safety steel rod in every mud-mortar house, retrofitting and Rs100,000 to the owner so that the structure is safe from earthquakes as well as water and fire disasters. In fact, 300,000 houses across the country could have been retrofitted with just Rs30 billion with the government providing the initial Rs100,000 in subsidy for people to reinforce their concrete homes. The World Bank was ready to invest $10 million to survey the state of houses across the country for retrofitting, but it never took off. Reconstruction of the structures damaged by the Jajarkot earthquake will now proceed. The good news is that after the 2015 earthquake, we now have experience and expertise in doing that. We also have local governments, unlike the last time. They will be at the frontlines of reconstruction and resettlement. NDRRMA can provide strategic guidelines, gather resources, coordinate and train human resources, monitor the reconstruction work carried out through the local and state levels, and give policy directions. This exercise in turn will capacitate all three structures of government, and in the long term, all three levels of the government will be better equipped to deal with disasters. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokharel It is an opportunity to put our federal structure to good use, empower local leaders, resolve doubts about the system, coordinate the three levels of government and mobilise the support of the international community. Shelter is the topmost priority following any disaster, especially now that winter has set in on the western mountains. Survivors need relief materials including money for temporary housing. We need to identify beneficiaries, distribute grants by establishing a banking system, develop human resources and other frameworks. Only after that do we start reconstruction. Experts, government agencies and local representatives should coordinate with all levels of government to determine the role and share the work. Initiatives should be taken now in terms of raising resources. We have created a framework for dealing with disasters at the national level in the form of the Disaster Resilience Framework.Similarly, provinces and local levels should also create theirs. The framework has five elements: 1. Provide financial and technical support to make homes and schools safer through local governments. 2. Assess the damage and estimate the amount needed. 3. Put the Disaster Management Act into operation at all three levels of government. 4. Look at disaster insurance instead of just doling out money to people to rebuild. The government can pay the premium for the poorest families 5. Establish emergency centres with relief stockpiles at the federal, provincial and local levels. The Far West and Karnali provinces are underserved. Reconstruction, if done intelligently, is also an opportunity to uplift these areas economically. Disaster preparedness should be integrated into the education system so young Nepalis know that the country is disaster-prone and it is best to be prepared. Disasters do not kill people but poorly built structures do-- local levels should carry out risk assessment while developing land use plans. Most of all, what is needed now is the readiness to implement the blueprints, frameworks, experience and knowledge that we gleaned after 2015. Otherwise this tragedy will also be in vain. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal"> Epicentre of two disasters in West Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale

Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015

The deadly midnight earthquake last Friday in Karnali Province occurred in an area where seismologists had long predicted the next Big One. 
This was the ‘seismic gap’ that this newspaper first wrote about in its <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5065">9-15 January 2004 edition</a> commemorating National Earthquake Safety Day and the 70th anniversary of the 8.5 magnitude 1934 disaster.
The subduction of the Indian plate into and below the Eurasian landmass leads to accumulated stress in the rock strata deep beneath the Himalaya. This tectonic tension builds up over time, and if it is not released periodically the result could be a megaquake that could result in a rupture leading to 6m or more of horizontal surface displacement.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deadly-earthquake-hits-w-nepal">Deadly earthquake hits W Nepal</a>, Nepali Times 
Seismic experts now say that the 3 November event was not the massive one that was expected. At 6.4 it was a moderate quake with a shallow epicenter, which is why the destruction was limited to a relatively small radius although the shaking was felt as far away as Delhi and Kathmandu.
The disaster also exposed Nepal’s demographic shift. Of the 157 confirmed dead so far, many were women because most men have migrated abroad for work. There was also a class and caste element, as the flimsiest homes belonged to the poorest families. 
Disaster management experts like to say that it is not earthquakes that kill people but buildings. Indeed, quakes are not ‘natural disasters’ but mostly man made. Proof of this was the 25 April 2105 earthquake which killed nearly 9,000 people in central Nepal as substandard buildings collapsed. 
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grief-stricken-survivors-are-cold-and-hungry">Grief-stricken survivors are cold and hungry</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
Tragically, this also was proven in last week’s disaster when fragile stone and mud plaster homes collapsed with the very first jolt. Newer buildings with reinforced concrete columns withstood the shaking, but had the intensity and duration of the quake been longer they would have also crumbled.
Seismologists say the Jajarkot quake was not strong enough to release all the tectonic stress -- which could mean it was either a precursor to a bigger one to come, or it has made the region safe for another decade or so.
There is no way to predict it either way. What we know for sure is that the next one is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. It is better to invest now in preparedness than in counting bodies and the number of collapsed buildings after a disaster.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mass-cremations-for-nepal-quake-victims">Mass cremations for Nepal quake victims</a>, Sagar Budhathoki and Gopen Rai
For this, we already have lessons from the 2015 earthquake. Nearly 7,500 school buildings with 35,000 classrooms collapsed eight years ago and even if we make a conservative estimate of only 10 students per class, the loss of young lives would have been catastrophic. What saved them was that the quake happened on a Saturday.
In Jajarkot and Rukum West last week, many families were crushed by their falling homes while they slept. But given the number of schools that have collapsed, the casualty rate may have been higher if the quake had happened in the daytime on a weekday.
The first order of business for prevention would therefore be to retrofit school buildings all over Nepal, but especially in Gandaki, Karnali and Far Western Provinces. Earthquake safety instruction and drills should also be mandatory in schools. Digging tools, tents, first aid kits and go bags must be pre-positioned in school premises which can serve as shelters. Hospitals and public buildings also need to be retrofitted, and private home owners encouraged to make safety inspections.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-quake-survivors-wait-for-kin-to-return">Nepal quake survivors wait for kin to return</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
There are now earthquake early alert systems available that give up to 30 second warnings by analysing earthquake P waves waves and estimating its location and intensity to send alerts either through alarm devices installed in schools, or now on Android phones.
In fact, in the last 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 3 October in Bajhang, many people with Android phones got alerts in Kathmandu even while the earthquake was happening 500km away. Personal phones therefore became seismometers and could even give prior warning of quakes if Nepal becomes part of the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/earthquake-early-warning-overview">US Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert</a> system. The awkwardly acronymed NDRRMA (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority) was given a back seat in the aftermath of the Jajarkot quake. Its chief was travelling, and the government put in place a ‘one window’ coordination unit in Karnali that, instead of facilitating a more efficient mechanism for relief delivery, has become a bottleneck.
The 3 November disaster was a dress rehearsal for a bigger catastrophe to come, and sadly, we did not come off with flying colours this time.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/demographics-of-disaster-in-nepal-quake">Demographics of disaster in Nepal quake</a>, Nepali Times

Shaking things up

Nearly 9,000 people were killed and three times as many were injured in the 25 April 2015 earthquake. Over 750,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, including 8,000 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepal-s-schools">schools</a> and 30,000 classrooms.
Many thousands of lives of children were saved because the quake struck at noon on a Saturday, when schools were closed and many people were not at home.
Eight years later, the physical scars of the 2015 earthquake are still visible in Kathmandu Valley and surrounding district towns. Residential buildings are still being reconstructed, monuments are in scaffolding, and there are abandoned structures.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
Even if many of the buildings and school infrastructure wait to be reinforced, and building codes implemented, one of the best outcomes has been in disaster education.
Nepal’s schools have been involved in training search and rescue (SAR) volunteers, spreading earthquake response awareness in primary school classrooms. Proper disaster education helps everyone: children and older generations alike.
The <a href="https://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/">National Society for Earthquake Technology</a>, Nepal (NSET) creates and distributes earthquake education materials every year as part of its Earthquake Safety Day Campaign on 15 January every year, the day that commemorates the 8.3 magnitude earthquake in 1934 that destroyed much of Kathmandu.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/earthquake-vacates-villages-in-nepal">Earthquake vacates villages in Nepal</a>
Over the past several years NSET has conducted disaster response campaigns around Nepal focusing on strengthening community-based response in subjects like search and rescue, and rapid seismic damage assessment – all with the goal of building capacity at the community-level for disaster response.
In the 2015 Gorkha earthquake alone, of the 22,326 rescued alive, approximately 17,887 were saved at the community and individual level. National <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/miracle-boy-six-years-after-nepal-quake">search and rescue</a> teams as well as international agencies also played their part. The Armed Police Force and other security agencies rescued over 4,420 lives and international SAR teams rescued 19. These rescues were often in situations that were inaccessible to community members – primarily those trapped in the rubble of collapsed concrete structures.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=25092&amp;preview=true" target="_blank">Lessons Unlearnt</a>, Editorial
Disaster education can exist at the grassroots level as well. Most recently, third- and fourth-year civil engineering students from Institute of Engineering (IoE), in Pulchok began conducting training seminars for students and teachers at government secondary schools around Kathmandu.
Young Nepali engineers designed pamphlets and posters which they delivered and explained to students and teachers, even providing tools from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) for Nepal’s hard-of-hearing and deaf communities to improve accessibility since disaster impacts everyone.
The students leveraged their backgrounds in engineering to explain the physics of an earthquake, as well as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/foundations-for-sustainable-buildings-in-nepal">concrete action to mitigating risk</a> and earthquake response. They created interactive games to quiz grade school students on what they had learned – tailoring their speech and lessons to younger audiences.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/preserving-patan-post-earthquake">Preserving Patan post-earthquake</a>
Free training for educators on how to make their classrooms more earthquake-safe were also conducted, as well as providing tips on how to talk to younger generations about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">disaster risk</a>, especially for students who may not remember the 2015 earthquake.
“It is important to educate young people about earthquake preparedness,” says Sagar Khanal, a fourth year engineering student. “There was positive feedback from students and teachers and it showed it was useful. This experience has strengthened our resolve to make a positive impact in our community”.
From the achievements of larger organisations like NSET to a more grassroots approach by the next-generation of engineers and everything in between, the disaster education experience in Nepal has been positive.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/turkey-and-nepal-face-similar-seismic-risks">Turkey and Nepal face similar seismic risks</a>, Surya Narayan Shrestha

Rachael Lau

Back to classroom for earthquake preparedness

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a03c9c7e80680e0d7029jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As Nepal prepared to mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 16 January to commemorate the 8.3 magnitude disaster that hit Kathmandu in 1934, the country went into mourning for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-bound-flight-crashes-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the air crash in Pokhara</a>.There were 72 people on board and there are likely no survivors. This was the worst disaster in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s domestic aviation</a>, and the highest number of casualties after two crashes of international flights one-after-another in Kathmandu in 1992.The message from these tragedies is that Nepal is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster-prone country</a> — either human induced or natural. But even though earthquakes, landslides or floods may be ‘natural phenomena’ the disasters are more destructive because of manmade causes.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0409c7e80680e0d702apng.png" alt="" width="640" height="592">Social media posts have condemned the coalition government’s decision to mark the crash with a day off. Most said it should have been taken as a day of reckoning about preventing and being prepared for all kinds of disasters.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0449c7e80680e0d702bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1934 earthquake</a> was epicentre in eastern Nepal, and killed at least 16,000 people in Nepal and India. Historical records show that a temblor of that magnitude hits Nepal at least once every 100 years, while smaller quakes are more frequent.“2015 was not a mega earthquake, it is still due,” warns Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET).He adds that there is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">large seismic gap in western Nepal</a> where there has not been a big earthquake since 1505, meaning that so much tectonic energy has accumulated that the region is overdue for a disaster of more than 8 magnitude.The Indian Plate is converging towards the Eurasian Plate at an average rate of 25mm a year, which is what makes Nepal and the region an active seismic zone.“We have been lucky that we haven’t had a mega-quake yet in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the seismic gap</a> between Pokhara all the way to Dadeldhura but this also means we could witness the biggest one yet given the stress accumulated,” says Anil Pokhrel, Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).“In fact, it will be catastrophic,” Pokhrel earns. “The 1505 earthquake killed one-third of Nepal’s population even back then.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0479c7e80680e0d702cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="516"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>An 8M+ earthquake in faraway <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western Nepal</a> will not spare Kathmandu either, and half of Nepal’s population will be directly affected. Experts estimate that there will be more than 100,000 casualties and over 1.5 million buildings will collapse across the country. Large parts of northern India will also be hit“This is the level of disaster the whole country needs to be prepared for, not just western Nepal,” warns NSET’s Shrestha.There is therefore no time to waste <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/concrete-lessons-of-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforcing infrastructure</a>, but that is a tall order since a survey showed that two-thirds of all the buildings in Nepal will collapse in a major earthquake.The 7.8M quake in 2015 was a warning, and it has had some effect in increasing preparedness. In fact, Nepal’s record of reconstruction is noted as a success given the scale of destruction in the aftermath. But similar levels of preparedness is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-better-late-than-never,891" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">needed now for the Next Big One</a>.There is also a general <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">misconception that concrete buildings are safer</a> because they survived the 2015 earthquake. But experts say if the shaking had lasted just a few seconds longer and if the intensity of the tremor was a bit higher, most reinforced concrete buildings in Kathmandu would have also collapsed.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04a9c7e80680e0d702djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04d9c7e80680e0d702ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0509c7e80680e0d702fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750">Cement buildings are safer only when they do not flout building standards. Otherwise they are death traps because Nepal just does not have enough rescue equipment and skills required for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">search and rescue from concrete structures</a>.“Concrete is among the most complex of construction materials and requires stringent quality control,” says Anil Pokhrel. “The quality of some of these do not meet quality standards.”Substandard cement means weak concrete, not just in urban centres but across Nepal as cement construction spreads to even remote parts of the country due to road expansion.Most recently, the 8 November 2022 6.6M <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/earthquake-vacates-villages-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake in Doti</a> killed 6 people while nearly 15,000 houses and 215 public buildings were damaged in four districts in the far west. A post-mortem of the disaster found that not even 5% of buildings in the affected areas followed even the most basic building codes.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0539c7e80680e0d7030jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1600"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This means very low awareness among the public as well as municipal authorities about <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">enforcing building codes</a>. This points to an urgent need to capacitate engineers to design earthquake resistant structures, and masons who can build them accordingly. But most important is monitoring building compliance.“Knowledge alone is not enough to save lives, we need people to change their attitude and practice,” says Shrestha. “As it is, we have already forgotten the destruction post-2015 earthquake and people are now building back the way they used to. People must invest a bit more to ensure that their buildings are safe while the government can provide technical expertise.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0579c7e80680e0d7031jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05a9c7e80680e0d7032jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427">Engineers say it costs only 10% more to make a traditional building earthquake resistant. This means the building will not suffer major damage in moderate tremors, and even if it collapses with bigger shaking it gives people time to escape. Even if 100% earthquake proof buildings were possible to make, they would be too expensive.For existing buildings, however, there is an option of retrofitting them, but should not cost more than one-third of what a new building does.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Retrofitting can be a lifesaver</a>. In the 2015 earthquakes, none of the school buildings in and around Kathmandu Valley retrofitted by the NSET suffered any damage, and in fact served as shelters in the aftermath.As it is, green and open spaces which acted as shelters from earthquakes in the past are being traded for residential and commercial buildings across cities. But NSET with support of various municipalities and Kathmandu Valley Development Authority has recently mapped 1,000 open spaces, most of them in Kathmandu Valley which can be viewed at <a href="http://bipadportal.gov.np" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bipadportal.gov.np</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05c9c7e80680e0d7033jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="345"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Close to 8,000 schools and 30,000 classrooms were damaged or destroyed in 2015. The fact that it struck on a Saturday saved the lives of thousands of students which should be taken as a sign to reinforce school buildings all over Nepal with topmost priority.“If the 2015 earthquake had happened on any other day than Saturday, we estimate that at least 30,000 students could have been killed,” says Shrestha.NSET has managed to retrofit 2,000 schools across Nepal in a joint collaboration with the government, but there are 32,000 government schools in Nepal with 80,000 school buildings between them. More than half of them are vulnerable to future quakes.It is not only the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">school infrastructure</a> that needs to be reinforced, but their curriculum has to be designed in such a way that students and teachers alike know the dangers and how to protect themselves. The schools need to be prepared at all times with frequent emergency drills and training about earthquake safety.While <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness is the key</a> to reducing the damage, efficient response in the aftermath can save the most lives in the ‘golden hour’. With the spread of concrete buildings, Nepal needs to immediately invest in equipment for collapsed structure search and rescue like snake-eye and robo-worm cameras, acoustic, thermal and motion sensors to detect human life under the rubble.Another urgent measure is to plan stockpiling of immediate digging and relief material for which the government is building provincial as well as district warehouses, many of which are under construction.A recent study undertaken by NDRRMA titled ‘Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment 2022-2030’ found that Nepal needs nearly $200 million in the next seven years to prepare for future disasters like the one projected for western Nepal.“Given the sheer scale of the overdue earthquake in the west, we need to invest a lot more in disaster preparedness, from constructing stronger structures and retrofitting our homes, schools and hospitals to developing a better response mechanism,” says Anil Pokhrel.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0609c7e80680e0d7034jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="829">With the understanding that financing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster risk reduction</a> is more effective and economical than a post-disaster response like search, rescue, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery, the government has developed the Nepal Disaster Risk Financing Strategy so the state plans to provide insurance for all the public and private buildings in an event of a major earthquake.NSET’s Surya Narayan Shrestha agrees: “Given how disaster-prone we know Nepal is, we must seriously put our efforts and money into reducing the risks.”

In a disastrous state

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition with only about 7,000 bottles, most of it for export and rest to be sold to rum connoisseurs in Nepal itself. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are working on taking a classic Nepali rum to a new luxury premium brand category, the Cask Series will only be produced this year with new product ranges in future,” explains Subash Lamichhane, managing director of Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in Bara district in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum.&nbsp; The distillery is now adding this limited edition of its ‘Cask Series’. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made either from oak or sal, with charred insides to give the rum a smoky flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. The company has a tasting suite with a master blender and tasters who have to approve the palate test.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the run out of the cask.&nbsp; Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, we expect to throw away about fifteen.”Over the decades, Nepal Distilleries have created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and has served as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. &nbsp;Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable, and it is,” says Lamichhane. The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle adorning its bar (page 6-7). In Washington DC Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito in its drinks menu with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  A distinct element of the award-winning <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">classic Khukri rum</a> is its burgundy colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats. The vats are not just for storage, the wood in the vats imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri Rum bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is the quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour. A mural on the wall of the distillery in Balaju depicts the rum-making process. A lady slings sugarcane on her shoulder, the molasses is churned in a pot, water is channelled into the distillation process, cinnamon, cloves and cardamom are added to a container, and finally there is a bottle of the classic Khukri Rum against a Kathmandu backdrop.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;

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