<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/including-local-knowledge-to-study-climate-change">Alton Byers</a> has organised frequent research expeditions to the Himalaya for more than 50 years. Recently, he returned to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga">Kanchenjunga region</a> which he has visited three times since 2019. His team was there to gather more data for an ongoing study of glacial, ecological and socioeconomic changes in the region. But, his attention was soon diverted when a young man from the local community told Byers that locals had noticed large meltwater ponds forming at the toe of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga">Kanchenjunga</a> Glacier, upstream from Ghunsa and Kambachen. “He asked if we could go take a look at it,” Byers said. “We were on our way up to the Kanchenjunga base camp, so we made a detour. Sure enough, you could see these considerable lakes, perhaps a half-a-square-mile and growing.” Byers sprung into action. First, he interviewed other community members about the ponds — they confirmed the observations and growing concern. Then, over the ensuing months, he assembled a team of experts to conduct a study of how the ponds were changing. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/17/10/1457#:~:text=This%20study's%20modeling%20results%20suggest,Ghunsa%20in%20the%20form%20of">The study was published in the journal Water earlier this month</a>. The paper outlines a number of potentially dangerous flood scenarios that could be triggered at the site in the future. The researchers urge regional authorities to implement mitigation measures, including a monitoring program and an early warning system for flooding.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708030756_e4eda873993e7aa17a2e90dc95a162c85e4dc4627f6251ee8a9543681e3367b3.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250708030756_e4eda873993e7aa17a2e90dc95a162c85e4dc4627f6251ee8a9543681e3367b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1967" height="2128" loading="lazy" alt="Mapping Kangchenjunga glacial flood risk"> <figcaption>Predicted future Kanchenjunga proglacial lake extent and depth, frontal moraine, and potential avalanche location, which were used as input for modeling the GLOF cascade in r.avaflow. The background image is from Google Earth Imagery taken on 25 December 2020.</figcaption> </figure>  Byers’ first call for collaboration was to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-people-appeal-for-sonam-wangchuk">Sonam Wangchuk</a>, an expert in snow and ice research via satellite imagery at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. The images were striking. From 2022 to 2024, the ponds grew from puddles to large, interconnected bodies of water.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708030740_d60cec33fe26074cb49a6a7c4d8f42ef8870c63f606c945d60fc3bf0327b1a3b.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250708030740_d60cec33fe26074cb49a6a7c4d8f42ef8870c63f606c945d60fc3bf0327b1a3b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1861" height="2126" loading="lazy" alt="Mapping Kangchenjunga glacial flood risk"> <figcaption>Evolution of supraglacial lakes on debris-covered glacier (27.7726, 88.0187) at Kanchenjunga. Time series satellite composite images were acquired by Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument between September and October, with the exception of the April–May 2024 images. Two large and distinct lakes which expanded rapidly in 2022 and continued to grow in 2023 and 2024 are labeled as 1 and 2, for locational comparison with the oblique view taken on 25 May 2024. Photo: ALTON BYERS</figcaption> </figure>  “It’s sort of an indicator of how these melting processes are accelerating,” Byers said. Next, Byers and collaborators estimated that the meltwater ponds could form a large glacial lake. That lake, if it forms, will be vulnerable to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">outburst flooding</a>, which could be triggered by melting processes, structural collapse or rockfall from surrounding slopes. Finally, the researchers focused their efforts on modeling potential floods. They identified four scenarios, from small to large.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708030744_ecafcf2013548954fcd0c76ce9ab299d68222fae99892d168dcba70f0fd802ae.png" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250708030744_ecafcf2013548954fcd0c76ce9ab299d68222fae99892d168dcba70f0fd802ae" data-rendition-name="original" width="2637" height="3197" loading="lazy" alt="Mapping Kangchenjunga glacial flood risk"> <figcaption>Flood extent under various scenarios: areas impacted by all four GLOF scenarios are labelled as 4, those affected by three scenarios as 3, by two scenarios as 2, and by only one scenario as 1. (B) Hydrograph generated from GLOF modeling in r.avaflow and used as the input flow data for modeling each GLOF scenario in HEC-RAS. Flow depth and velocity at Kampachen (C,D) and Ghunsa (E,F). Discharge rate and time of peak, and flow arrival at Kampachen (G) and Ghunsa (H) under different scenarios.</figcaption> </figure>  Under the mildest scenario, the flood surge would travel 100km down the Tamor River, and under the worst-case scenario it would travel at least 220km with impact on houses and bridges, livestock, crops and tourism infrastructure. Byers warns that without adequate preparation, glacial outburst flooding can be deadly. The paper advises local and regional authorities to take measures to prevent a flood originating from the study site. Their recommendations include establishing early warning systems for flooding, partnering with research organisations in Kathmandu to monitor the site and adapting zoning laws to prevent new buildings in flood zones.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250708030748_dccee85332d2844413dc5693050899b4bc49a25f9c66abc6b1ac1f5a80786d58.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250708030748_dccee85332d2844413dc5693050899b4bc49a25f9c66abc6b1ac1f5a80786d58" data-rendition-name="original" width="1356" height="668" loading="lazy" alt="Mapping Kangchenjunga glacial flood risk"> <figcaption>Imja Lake, a glacial lake in the Mount Everest region of Nepal, began as meltwater ponds in 1962 and now contains 90 million cubic meters of water. Its water level was lowered to protect downstream communities. Photo: ALTON BYERS</figcaption> </figure>  Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-not-so-permanent-frost">The not-so-permanent frost</a>, Wilfried Haeberli and C Alton Byers One of the cheapest and most effective early warning systems is deceptively simple: cell phones. Says Byers: “Not everyone can afford multi-million dollar early warning systems that rely on laser readings of water depth. But, studies have shown that cell phones, at least during the daytime, are one of the better early warning systems out there.” Byers hopes the study can help the same people that brought the issue to his attention: “The goal was always to share the research with the local community. Then they have all of the information they need to make the best decisions possible.” <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/instaar/2025/05/27/researchers-model-dangerous-glacial-lake-himalayas-and-propose-solutions">Gabe Allen</a> is Senior communications specialist at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado Boulder.

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Mapping Kangchenjunga glacial flood risk

On the afternoon of 28 May, a massive glacier avalanche destroyed the idyllic village of Blatten in the Valais region of Switzerland. Footage of the disaster rapidly circulated around the world, sparking renewed conversation about the increasing instability of the mountain cryosphere and climate-related risks. The population of nearly 300 people had been evacuated a week prior due to concerns that unstable slopes above the glacier could trigger a catastrophic event. This is remarkable, and a testament to the value of hazard monitoring and anticipatory action. Shocked by the intensity of avalanche impacts and devastating loss, people struggled to comprehend the alternative: what if the village had been full? In Nepal, the people of the Langtang Valley, survivors of a massive glacier avalanche that killed over 300 people in April 2015, know exactly what it feels like for an entire village to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/17/nepal-earthquake-langtang-village-everyone-was-dead">‘wiped off the map’</a> in a little more than a minute. The avalanche that buried the village of Langtang was similarly catastrophic, as the avalanche fell over 3,000m and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/asia/nepal-avalanche-langtang.html">carried nearly as much force as the Hiroshima atomic bomb</a>. Unfortunately, the people of Langtang had no warning. While these two disasters are quite different, there are some important connections between them. As the world contemplates the threat of increasing climate-related glacier hazards and wonders if and how Blatten will rebuild, I would like to draw attention to the ever-present risk of similar disasters in the Himalayas, where the scale of the problem is (arguably) larger and resources are (inarguably) more limited. As events like these become increasingly common, we need to build monitoring and <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/sendai-framework-action/early-warnings-for-all">early warning systems for all</a> at-risk communities. We also need more comparative analysis of the ways mountain people make sense of climate-related risks, particularly around wicked questions like hazard zoning and resettlement or relocation. How do institutions determine where to invest in hazard monitoring and early warning systems? Who gets to decide where people can rebuild, what kind of risks are ‘acceptable’, or whose uncertainties matter? As a survivor of the Langtang disaster and an applied anthropologist, this is not a thought exercise for me. I spent more than two years working with the Langtangpa community as a volunteer, and the last ten years conducting research focused on the aftermath of the Langtang avalanche and the ways people cope with disaster and climate risk in the Himalayan region. Since late 2022, I have been <a href="https://www.stimson.org/project/early-warning-systems-for-cascading-disasters-in-nepal/">working with the Stimson Center </a>to consider how we might build systems to assess and monitor the changing risks of cascading hazards in the Himalayan region. As the Swiss and a range of international organizations consider how they might provide warning for other Alpine villages living beneath glaciers, we need to expand the conversation to consider the many Himalayan villages that are similarly at-risk. The question of climate causality currently haunts the Blatten disaster -- just as it has for other similar events in recent years, including the Langtang avalanche. While attribution is incredibly complicated, many scientists have already highlighted the ways that melting permafrost and loss of seasonal snowcover and glacial mass created instability in the overall system above the Birch Glacier on Kleines Nesthorn. Not all glaciers are receding. In Blatten, recurring slope failures had also been piling debris on the glacier slowly over the years, pushing the ‘glacier tongue’ forward and weakening its integrity – and this acceleration attracted attention and focused monitoring. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7334623807573278721/">A recent post from Christian Huggel, a leading cryosphere scientist based at University of Zurich</a> examined these details and clearly stated: “Considering all these processes it would be absurd, ignorant or dishonest to state that anthropogenic warming has not played any role in the ice-rock avalanche disaster in <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/all/?keywords=%23blatten&amp;origin=HASH_TAG_FROM_FEED">Blatten</a>. Interestingly, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/01/this-is-ground-zero-for-blatten-the-tiny-swiss-village-engulfed-by-a-mountain">other scientists have indicated that “exact attribution is almost beside the point.”</a> Tellingly, it took almost ten years for formal scientific recognition (see <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01624-z">this Nature paper published in 2024</a>) in part because it was seismically triggered, overshadowing the climate-related signal.That said, many Langtangpa highlighted these connections immediately after the disaster, as many are doing in Blatten right now. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-courage-and-endurance-of-the-langtangpa">My friends in Langtang have spent the last ten years rebuilding their lives</a> while wondering if another event of this magnitude might be possible.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250607140612_5ccfd4786416a151e1c2d44f79add3c196da34e1c30af9188de10982b45d72f8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250607140612_5ccfd4786416a151e1c2d44f79add3c196da34e1c30af9188de10982b45d72f8" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="885" loading="lazy" alt="Blatten NT"> <figcaption>Copernicus statellite image of the avalanche that buried the village Blatten in Switzerland on 28 May, 2025.</figcaption> </figure>  &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250607140616_306112d2eb5330d0a5117bae3fc372861afce5137b52f793285e6b1cf89ca31a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250607140616_306112d2eb5330d0a5117bae3fc372861afce5137b52f793285e6b1cf89ca31a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1733" height="1053" loading="lazy" alt="Langtang NT"> <figcaption>The deadly earthquake-triggered avalance that destroyed Langtang village in Nepal on 25 April, 2015.</figcaption> </figure>  Like the people of the Swiss Alps, the Langtangpa have been living with avalanches for centuries, and they have used both situated knowledge and practical systems to adapt to changing risks. But, in Langtang as in Blatten, the scale and impact of this singular tragedy was both unprecedented and unforeseen. Tellingly, Langtang was not a scientific hinterland: groups from a dozen different countries were conducting glaciological, hydrological, and climatological research there prior to the disaster. Blatten is a case where the scientists knew where to look. But even in relatively well-studied places like Langtang, disasters can emerge in our blind spots.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Last year’s Thame glacial lake outburst flood</a> (GLOF) also began in an overlooked and understudied area – <a href="https://www.stimson.org/2024/rethinking-himalayan-cryosphere-risk-assessment-in-the-wake-of-nepals-thame-disaster/">prompting scientists to rethink the ways we assess glacial lakes</a>. Issues related to <a href="https://www.icimod.org/mountain/permafrost/">melting permafrost</a>, which seems to have been a factor for both the Blatten disaster and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tashi-lhazom-5a433b22b_rebuildtil-limifloodrelief-fromtearstohope-activity-7332420946013691904-N0sH?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAADxlvsBK3zQKg0X2xPLPS94HyMEettoSU4">the cascading ‘thermokarst lake outburst flood’ that recently occurred in the Limi Valley</a>, are increasingly recognised as a pervasive risk but it is difficult to monitor and the science is young. A multitude of different cryosphere-related disasters are possible across the Himalaya, and background risk is increasing. How do we triage between these different kinds of hazards? How do we know where to look? While it might not have been possible to monitor the glaciers and cryosphere features that contributed to the Langtang disaster, we need to be actively looking for other places where monitoring systems and early warning is possible in Nepal and the broader Himalayan region. Of course, we do need to be precise in our analysis and communication around climate attribution, but consensus does exist on some general trends: climate change is driving new hazard interactions that can generate extreme flows. Therefore, we also need to recognise the undeniable: that background risk is undeniably rising, that lives are at risk, and that we need to invest in building systems that can help anticipate events like Blatten (which takes time, time that others don’t have) immediately. The fact that Langtang has been fully rebuilt and community leaders were effective in determining the shape of their own future and ‘building back better’ their way (as complicated as that may be), demonstrates that a future can be possible, amid uncertainty. But the future of many other communities in the Himalaya, who should never have to go through what the Langtangpa went through if we can avoid it, still remains at-risk without more scientific attention and investment. Meanwhile, the monsoon is arriving in Nepal and another disaster could happen any day now. Coverage of the Blatten disaster has been rightfully robust. Praise for the scientists and authorities who identified these risks and correctly analyzed the situation is also deserved, for that is difficult work. A wider call to learn from this event and use insights to inform policy on climate risk assessment or questions of managed retreat is also exceedingly necessary and urgent. As many scientists are saying: events like this will happen again. This is a scary time in the mountains, in the Alps, in the Himalaya, and many other regions. That said, not all places are equally exposed or vulnerable. To reiterate a core question that I have been asking for years: <a href="https://dialogue.earth/en/climate/opinion-climate-disasters-integrate-local-knowledge/">Whose uncertainties matter</a>? When and why? We know that climate-related loss and damage will not be equally or equitably distributed, and that is one of the core reasons for the UN’s Early Warnings for All program. Blatten is being talked about this week <a href="https://globalplatform.undrr.org/2025/preparatory-days/global-ew4all-multi-stakeholder-forum">while the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction is going in Geneva</a>, from where some of my Nepali colleagues posted photos of them posing with a sign that speaks to the justice issue: ‘Early warnings work. They must work for everyone.” Working toward this noble goal will require a concerted and committed global effort. -- Austin Lord, PhD is a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center and an environmental anthropologist who has been conducting research in Nepal for the past 13 years on disaster and climate risk management, water and energy policy, infrastructure development, and environmental governance.

Blatten, Langtang, and Disasters Yet to Come?

“Now with every gust of wind, the smell of dead bodies fills the air.” Thar Nge, a resident of Sagaing in Burma, was speaking to the conditions in earthquake-affected areas following the country’s catastrophic 7.7M earthquake on 28 March last month. Over four thousand people died in the disaster. For many in Nepal, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/photos-nepal-earthquake-2015,2207">scenes of the earthquake </a>on the news and photos on social media brought back painful memories of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">the 2015 Nepal earthquake</a> 10 years ago this week. As a data analyst at Togglecorp, a private data analysis and software development company in Kathmandu, I have worked on several projects that included reviews of secondary data related to the most recent earthquakes in Burma, Morocco, Türkiye-Syria, and Nepal. The data shows a clear pattern and painful gaps in how countries respond to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-tale-of-two-disasters">large-scale disasters</a>. Analysis conducted through the Data Entry and Exploration Platform (DEEP) reveals a clear but grim reality: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/preserving-patan-post-earthquake">the cost of earthquakes</a> is not just measured in lives lost or buildings destroyed, but also in the speed, equity, and coordination of response efforts.<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later"> Some communities rebuild</a>, many are left behind.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250424070420_af853d6ca37b2e338a359939119c313cb40d19c4b15e9e2d6a910d04969f76a7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250424070420_af853d6ca37b2e338a359939119c313cb40d19c4b15e9e2d6a910d04969f76a7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1414" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Technology and tectonics"> </figure>  The data exposed not only shared struggles between Nepal, Burma and other countries that have suffered from earthquakes, such as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-a-test">health system overloads and water-related disease outbreaks</a>, but also how drastically governance and politics affect outcomes. One theme that emerged, especially in Nepal and other countries in the region, is that earthquakes do not discriminate, but responses do. In the Burma earthquake, in some regions, 90% of homes were wiped out and over 28 hospitals were destroyed. Even as this happened, aid workers continued to face security threats while<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/helping-during-earthquake,2247"> delivering aid</a> and much-needed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/covid-19-relief-efforts">relief efforts</a>. Nepal faced similar hospital infrastructure challenges during the 2015 earthquake, where up to 90% of health facilities in districts like Sindhupalchok, Dolakha, and Gorkha were either destroyed or overwhelmed. In some areas, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-healer-of-far-western-nepal">doctors treated patients</a> in open fields, under tarpaulins, due to the collapse of ward buildings and lack of emergency tents. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">Structural problems</a>, Sonia Awale In the aftermath of the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/kathmandu-in-the-time-of-cholera">cholera outbreaks </a>surged due to failed water, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/toilet-trained-in-nepal">sanitation and hygiene systems</a>, and temporary tents could not keep up with displacement needs. While Nepal did not experience cholera outbreaks on that scale, post-quake <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-success-in-typhoid-vaccine-trial">diarrheal diseases</a> and sanitation concerns were widely reported, particularly in temporary camps with inadequate toilet facilities and poor hygiene practices. After the September 2023 earthquake in Morocco, because of the inaccessibility of many of its mountain villages, families had to dig with their bare hands to clear rubble while medical staff were forced to treat the sick and injured outdoors. Nepal shares similar geographic challenges seen in Morocco and Burma. During <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/rebuilding-better-than-before">the 2015 earthquake</a>, landslides and damaged roads cut off villages in Rasuwa, Gorkha, and Lamjung, forcing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi">rescue teams</a> to rely on helicopters. Even today, remote hill and mountain areas, especially in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-karnali-s-hunger-emergency">Karnali </a>and Sudurpaschim provinces, remain hard to reach during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-more-women-die-in-nepal-s-natural-disasters">natural disasters</a>. While earthquakes are natural, the unequal and delayed response is manmade and preventable. Patterns across countries repeat, often due to preventable gaps. One glaring example is the chronic underfunding of Mental Health and Psychosocial Support despite growing recognition that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/it-s-an-emergency-nepal-needs-to-improve-trauma-care">trauma constitutes a silent second wave of devastation</a>. In Syria, only 3,000 people received <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14138">psychological first aid</a>, while over 1.5 million were displaced. In Burma, with over 9 million severely affected, most women and girls in areas like Sagaing and Mandalay had no access to<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13680"> mental health services</a>. Healthcare systems also collapsed quickly. Hospitals like Morocco’s Mohammed VI University Hospital treated patients outdoors, and Burma saw around 25 hospitals in Mandalay, 28 in Shan, 22 in Bago and 24 in Naypyitaw damaged or destroyed. While <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificially-intelligent-medicine">mobile medical units</a> have proven effective, reaching 7,870 people in Syria, they remain underused due to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon">poor planning </a>and lack of pre-positioned support. Protection risks spiked in both Burma and Syria, where displaced women lacked safe shelters, lighting, or dignity kits. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disastrous-preparedness">Nepal’s own experience in 2015</a> tragically echoes these patterns: mental health issues were sidelined, hospitals in districts like Sindhupalchok and Dolakha were affected, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/educating-your-sons-will-protect-your-daughters">gender-based protection</a> in temporary shelters was grossly inadequate. The lesson from this cross-country analysis is clear: unless countries like Nepal invest in mental health services, mobile health infrastructure, and gender-sensitive protection before disaster strikes, history will continue to repeat itself in harsh ways.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250424070424_d3c38d3935e61e2b4d0c2ec5b8fd67cc5f32b58ada6fb70fe979a12f8133ef1f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_25" data-image-id="20250424070424_d3c38d3935e61e2b4d0c2ec5b8fd67cc5f32b58ada6fb70fe979a12f8133ef1f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1414" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Technology and tectonics"> </figure>  Here is where <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/tech-and-transition-in-nepal">technology</a> proves critical. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/finding-your-way-in-nepal?fbclid=IwAR3Ls8S90Qcjv8CYsuZb2QjaFaMKnOar0L2jDiT3D1o7hx8ipoJRrTUbXDI">Data and digital tools</a> can identify trends across borders, strengthen coordination, and improve early response. In Nepal, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/internet-in-everything">digital targeting tools</a> have helped humanitarian responders fine-tune who needs what and where, even in remote or <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/civic-appeal-for-stability-and-governance">politically unstable settings</a>. For example, digital tools like Vulnerability Assessment Mapping and KOBO surveys were used after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/reviewing-lessons-of-the-2015-nepal-earthquake">Nepal’s 2015 earthquake </a>to identify <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">vulnerable households</a> in hard-to-reach areas of Sindhupalchok and Dolakha, helping responders deliver aid more accurately. These platforms ensure that responses are not only faster and more efficient but also cost-effective, avoiding duplication and ensuring that limited resources go where they are needed most. By collecting and analysing the right kind of data, including field reports, government updates, and third-party insights, the analysis through a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/addressing-nepals-digital-divide">digital-first approach</a> can help shape a more inclusive, evidence-based response to disasters. The shift from ad hoc reaction to data-informed action allows us to save time, money, and lives. Ultimately, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/yes-quakes-can-be-forecast">earthquakes will continue to strike</a>, but how we respond can and must change. Tools like DEEP and the use of cross-crisis digital analysis are essential for humanitarian professionals to make smarter decisions, faster. With <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/back-to-classroom-for-earthquake-preparedness">better preparedness </a>plans, integrated <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bhaktapur-2-0-d8m66qhb">community-level responses</a>, and real-time insights, we can transform how governments and aid agencies protect people in moments of crisis. Earthquakes reveal more than seismic cracks: they expose the weaknesses in our humanitarian systems. And with the right tools and mindset, we can start sealing those cracks before the next tremors hit. Ruby Thapaliya is a Humanitarian Data Analyst with a background in public health, currently working at Togglecorp.

Technology and tectonics

In 2023, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) conducted a Structural Integrity Assessment of 29,000 public buildings in 145 municipalities across Nepal. Only 9.4% of them were found to be safe.&nbsp; The study deployed remote sensing as well as engineers on the ground to assess the risk, and showed that more than half needed major strengthening, while 12.5% could be retrofitted. Another 12% would need immediate demolition, and 5% of the public buildings were sited in poor soil (below).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250419030456_bc5ba9d543d872871d015cb2129406c690a84583efc72fb795ae682a9ca6ae63.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250419030456_bc5ba9d543d872871d015cb2129406c690a84583efc72fb795ae682a9ca6ae63" data-rendition-name="original" width="517" height="511" loading="lazy" alt="public buildings and earthquakes"> <figcaption>Data: NDRRMA</figcaption> </figure>  After the 2015 earthquake, NDRRMA assessed 18,000 school buildings in the affected areas where over a million students were enrolled. More than half the buildings were found to be structurally vulnerable, while 30% of the schools with 184,000 students had been damaged. None of the classrooms retrofitted for seismic resistance collapsed. The surveys prove that Nepal <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">could have seen a catastrophic loss of children's lives</a> had the 2015 disaster occurred on a weekday when classrooms would be full.&nbsp; National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET-Nepal) also surveyed hospitals, water supply and telecommunication in the early 2000s to see how Nepal would fare in an 8M+ earthquake. Even then, the data showed that over half of such infrastructure would be destroyed. Increased population density and multi-storey structures since then means the death and destruction could be much greater. The <a href="https://bipad.gov.np/uploads/publication_pdf/Nepal_Disaster_Report_Final_2024.pdf">studies</a> also point to a critical lack of structural integrity of public buildings, emergency preparedness and response systems. They underscore Nepal’s limited capacity for search and rescue, a dysfunctional emergency operations centre, and poorly constructed houses and public buildings. Ten years after the earthquake, most of these public buildings have been rebuilt or retrofitted, and there is general understanding that schools and hospitals at the very least need to be stronger.&nbsp; But much of this awareness and subsequent action is limited to the 14 districts affected by the 2015 disaster. The rest of the country, especially western Nepal <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap">where a mega-quake is long overdue</a>, is woefully unprepared. Globally, Nepal ranks 11th in the list of countries vulnerable to seismic hazard. Added to this is risk from climate breakdown.&nbsp; Nepal is disaster-prone, and preparedness is the first line of defense. Schools, hospitals and other public buildings need special priority not only because of the chance of mass casualties, but also because they can be shelters after a disaster strikes and hospitals need to be intact to treat the wounded.&nbsp; Nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336">classrooms were damaged or destroyed in the 2015 earthquake</a>. Another 1,000 government buildings were destroyed and over 3,000 were partially damaged, 1,211 hospitals and primary health posts collapsed.&nbsp; If it was not a Saturday, total fatalities would have been much higher than the official toll of 8,962. Apart from infrastructure, emergency preparedness includes stockpiling essential supplies for effective first response. In schools, this means immediate rescue and evacuation of children, and getting them safely to their families.&nbsp; Disaster preparedness education is in school curricula, but should also include safety instructions depending on the type of building and conduct regular emergency evacuation drills.&nbsp; Hospitals, doctors, nurses and paramedics will themselves be affected in a disaster, but must also treat and care for the overwhelming numbers after a quake. Health facilities must have functioning back-up power, and pre-positioned water, drugs, equipment.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">The suspension of USAID</a> has had a direct impact on ongoing rebuilding and retrofitting activities across Nepal.&nbsp; One of the projects halted is for building 500 temporary learning centres in Jajarkot and Rukum where some 150,000 children were out of school after the 6.4M quake in November 2023.&nbsp; ---  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250419030456_3e0b8bc3c11aa56ca2295665d4d7f93cab6247d9fec41d5a617ff52002070622.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250419030456_3e0b8bc3c11aa56ca2295665d4d7f93cab6247d9fec41d5a617ff52002070622" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="school buildings and earthquakes"> <figcaption>LESSONS NOT LEARNT: Nava Adhasha Secondary School at Kathmandu Darbar Square was severely damaged in the 2015 earthquake but classes are being held in it. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Ten years after the 2015 earthquake, it is accepted that Nepal’s reconstruction efforts have been largely successful and relatively quick compared to disasters of similar scale in India, Pakistan, Iran and Haiti. Nepal was lucky that many things helped reduce the loss of life on 25 April 2015. The magnitude was less than 8 Richter, the duration and frequency of shaking meant that most concrete buildings did not collapse. And the earthquake struck during daytime on a weekend which meant children were out of school.&nbsp; “If it were a working day, at least 10,000 children would have died, and another 7,000 government officers which would include security personnel, critical to rescue and relief,” says <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible">Anil Pokhrel</a>, who till recently headed the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).&nbsp; In Nepal in 2015, nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepal-s-schools">classrooms were damaged or destroyed</a>. Some 1,000 government buildings were destroyed, over 3,000 were partially damaged. As many as 1,211 health facilities, including hospitals, primary health care centres, and health posts, were destroyed or damaged.&nbsp; The safety of public buildings is important not just because they involve a larger number of people, their continued functionality is even more crucial after a disaster. While schools serve as temporary shelters, hospitals become a battleground to save as many people as possible with limited resources, including doctors and nurses. “The safety of public buildings during earthquakes is of utmost importance which is why their design and construction standards are much higher and stringent than those of regular residential structures,” says Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) – Nepal. He adds: “But emergency preparedness and safety behaviour are as important. Students should be rescued and evacuated from schools, while hospitals should be equipped to handle an increased influx of people as well as provide uninterrupted services.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025041904040_a1dd53b921ef75de2ccdf8b513d9fc959ea73c8267d50b9b57013412e07379b5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025041904040_a1dd53b921ef75de2ccdf8b513d9fc959ea73c8267d50b9b57013412e07379b5" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="hospitals and earthquakes"> <figcaption>EMERGENCY CARE: Hospitals need to be prepared to manage existing patients and an increased influx of people while providing uninterrupted service in the aftermath of an earthquake. Photo: SONIA AWALE</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/index.php/event/eventdetail/eventid-595#:~:text=HOPE%20course%20deliberates%20about%20the,disaster%20and%20mass%20casualty%20incidents.">Hospital Preparedness for Emergency (HOPE)</a> is a four-day course developed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for effective management of disaster and public health emergencies at the health facility level. Experts say the training, which was first implemented in 2004, was crucial in allowing doctors and nurses in Kathmandu hospitals like Bir and Teaching, to provide immediate and uninterrupted service in the aftermath of the earthquake. Such preparedness should be extended in other parts of the country, especially to health workers and facilities, including stockpiling essential supplies. However, similar support from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">USAID has now been terminated</a>. Sangeeta Singh is a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering, and was in Khokana for an assessment when the 7.3M aftershock hit on 12 May 2015. She ran out of a narrow alley directly into an open square. She recalls how, despite suffering much damage, traditional structures provided enough time for locals to escape, leading to fewer casualties. Community-designated open spaces, alternative routes and supplies of essential items also helped. “We must allow local units of government in emergency response, implement building codes, and while we are at it, why not allocate some of the budget money to retrofitting instead of only building roads?” says Singh. “Ten years later, Nepalis have all but forgotten 2015, individuals and institutions flout building codes and the monitoring mechanism is not effective.” In the past ten years, municipalities have been trying to enforce building codes more strictly in the 14 districts affected in 2015. But the same is not true for the rest of the country, especially the far west which hasn’t seen a major quake in over 500 years, and has <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/past-disasters-foretold">accumulated enough stress to cause an 8M+ megaquake</a>. The level of unpreparedness was proven by how disastrous even the moderate 6.4M Jajarkot earthquake was in 2023, killing 153 people and injuring at least 375. Over 62,000 houses were destroyed or damaged, as well as 750 school buildings. Earthquake-resistant designs must be promoted and deployed across the country, especially for schools built with heavy construction materials like stone and round slippery boulders. Bamboo, hollow concrete blocks and rammed earth technologies are better, and concrete buildings must be reinforced so they do not become death traps. For a country as prone to multi-hazards, the government should implement proper land use with zoning. A recent example is Nepal Mediciti Hospital which was inundated in last September’s floods, disrupting medical care. The hospital was built on a floodplain. As a former lakebed with soft topsoil and shallow groundwater table, particularly in the central and southern floodplain areas, Kathmandu Valley is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-of-high-rises">prone to liquefaction</a> and excessive shaking during an earthquake.&nbsp; <a href="http://conference.ioe.edu.np/publications/ioegc2016/IOEGC-2016-03.pdf">One 2016 study</a> said that 33% of the total area of Kathmandu Valley lies in a very high risk zone for liquefaction. <a href="https://dpnet.org.np/public/uploads/files/geohazards-02-00009%202021-12-16%2007-17-20.pdf">Another study</a> published in the journal GeoHazards in 2021 said that 60% of the hospitals, 64% of colleges, 54% of the schools and 42% of the road network in Kathmandu are in high liquefaction risk zones if there was a magnitude 8 earthquake. Furthermore, 78% of Kathmandu airport's area is similarly vulnerable. The study recommends relocation of these facilities as well as other critical services, or at the very least, retrofitting. ‘The development of all these facilities should be carried out considering appropriate land use guided by the liquefaction risks to mitigate potential loss and proper functioning after earthquakes,’ it states. Explains Sangeeta Singh: “In addition to structural safety and emergency preparedness, a policy to guide proper land use is the need of the hour, especially for urban centres. We must assess multi-hazard vulnerability, and conduct a safety audit for existing public buildings, our lack of preparedness is astounding.” Former NDRRMA chief Anil Pokhrel adds that asset registry and an inventory of the safety status of public buildings are urgent must-dos. It is also needed in case of insurance payouts. Such a system could also help Nepal to quantify climate damage and, in turn, claim reparations. “In many ways, we are better prepared after 10 years of the 2015 earthquake, we have much experience in rebuilding but we are nowhere close to where we need to be,” admits Pokhrel. “The risk is growing rapidly, our preparedness hasn’t kept pace.”&nbsp;

Sonia Awale

Structural problems

The new year 2025 started literally with a bang. The 7.1M jolt in Xigatse on Tuesday swayed buildings in Kathmandu 400km away, and coincided with the approaching 91st anniversary of the 1934 Great Earthquake. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/be-prepared">National Earthquake Safety Day </a>on 15 January commemorates the 1934 8.3M disaster that killed 10,000 people in Kathmandu, leaving many collapsed buildings. Thousands of people of Kathmandu took shelter in tents in Tundikhel as aftershocks rattled the country (pictured).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250109070132_0d5b8bd0f1eb0350ec17f6b92a3e37b0b958976292520107b21efb961d883330.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250109070132_0d5b8bd0f1eb0350ec17f6b92a3e37b0b958976292520107b21efb961d883330" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Tents"> <figcaption>Tents at Tundikhel housed survivors as aftershocks following the 1934 earthquake rocked the country for days.</figcaption> </figure>  This year is also the tenth anniversary of the 2015 7.8M Gorkha Earthquake that killed 9,000 people in central Nepal. These are all warnings about the ‘seismic gap’ in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/past-disasters-foretold" target="_blank">western Nepal</a> where there has not been a major quake for more than 500 years.&nbsp; That one that is overdue, and for which the country is woefully unprepared. Despite the distance, an 8M earthquake will not spare Kathmandu and other urban centres. “It will be catastrophic, and yet, there is no preparedness among the public or policymakers despite increased awareness,” warns <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/turkey-and-nepal-face-similar-seismic-risks" target="_blank">Surya Narayan Shrestha</a> of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET Nepal) which has been involved in retrofitting public buildings.&nbsp; “The warning of the 2015 earthquake was not heeded, it has not translated into building safer or enforcing building codes,” Shrestha adds.&nbsp; There have been a series of smaller earthquakes in Jajarkot and Bajura in the past year, and it is an indication of the lack of preparedness that even <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deadly-earthquake-hits-w-nepal" target="_blank">moderate quakes like Jajarkot</a> killed so many and caused so much damage. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) in its <a href="https://bipad.gov.np/uploads/publication_pdf/EPR_report_July_2022_Final_V4_(1)138720.pdf" target="_blank">Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment</a> quantified earthquake preparedness levels in 23 municipalities. Kathmandu nearly failed with just 39.8%, while Doti in western Nepal scored the lowest at 11%. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disastrous-preparedness">Disastrous preparedness</a> ‘This means that most criteria for emergency preparedness and response systems in Nepal are weak,’ stated the 2022 assessment. It underlined severe lack of search and rescue equipment for different hazards, dysfunctional emergency operations center network, and poorly constructed houses and public buildings.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250109070136_f861a5d7d63a10f1650c1cc5607bef14b7f40eb7adc074b122a44c5ed21d1fa6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250109070136_f861a5d7d63a10f1650c1cc5607bef14b7f40eb7adc074b122a44c5ed21d1fa6" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1140" loading="lazy" alt="Dharara "> <figcaption>Ruins of Dharara tower after the 1934 earthquake. It was later reconstructed which again collapsed in 2015 earthquake killing many.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250109070136_9254062611371e577c9244d975b20f11d3be1033c243299dd719781330ffc2af.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250109070136_9254062611371e577c9244d975b20f11d3be1033c243299dd719781330ffc2af" data-rendition-name="original" width="1380" height="965" loading="lazy" alt="Singha Durbar"> <figcaption>The gate of Singha Darbar after the 8.3M earthquake in 1934.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250109070132_b0373e847d616cadf465173b779a41ee49da008916acc46cf6d6e244a3f560c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250109070132_b0373e847d616cadf465173b779a41ee49da008916acc46cf6d6e244a3f560c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1993" loading="lazy" alt="Earthquake"> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state" target="_blank">Western Nepal</a> has seen a swarm of smaller quakes in the past year, and this could either be releasing some of the tectonic tension, or a warning of a big one to come. The National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Center recorded 10 earthquakes between 4.1-5.2M from 17 December to 3 January, most of them in western Nepal. “We need thousands of these minor tremors or hundreds of moderate 6M earthquakes a year to be able to release the stress that has accumulated beneath western Nepal,” explains <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible" target="_blank">Anil Pokhrel</a>, who heads the NDRRMA.&nbsp; Today, Nepal’s seismic risk is magnified by climate breakdown. Rising temperature is melting glaciers, and turning them into lakes dammed by fragile moraines. A megaquake in the Himalaya increases the risk of multiple Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) downstream. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">Nepal’s mountains are melting</a>, Alton C Byers A few hours before two small glacial lakes burst destroying the village of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya" target="_blank">Thame in August</a> last year, a 4.5M earthquake had struck nearby on the Tibetan Plateau. The Journal of Basic and Applied Geomorphology in February 2023 <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X22004329" target="_blank">published a study</a> highlighting how earthquakes exacerbate climate-driven cascade processes of the glacial lakes failure in the Himalaya. ‘Global warming drives glacial retreat, and uncover loose sediment that can be mobilized as debris flows, triggering small glacial lake outbursts in high mountain regions. Sediment generated from earthquake-induced landslides exacerbates the flow magnitude in a valley to increase the disaster risk,’ the paper warns. Of the 47 <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up" target="_blank">high-risk lakes</a> on glaciers that threaten Nepal, 25 are in China and feed tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi that flow into Nepal. Pokhrel says he initially feared that the Xigatse earthquake on Tuesday would cause glacial lakes in Tibet to burst. He adds, “It is important to be prepared for cascading, complex disasters that combine the climate crisis with earthquakes, permafrost melting, GLOFs, landslides.” Pokhrel was in Thame in August, and says, “The two lakes that burst were the size of Olympic swimming pools and yet managed to wipe out half the village. We have lakes 600 times bigger which are now at a higher risk of bursting in an earthquake due to climate breakdown.”

Alarm in Nepal after Tibet quake

This late monsoon storm was not a surprise. Weather forecasts had warned of heavy precipitation a week before, the Met Office predicted heavy rain on 27-28 September, SMS warned people to take precaution, radio stations issued bulletins, and night buses were banned in 56 districts.&nbsp; The tragedy was compounded because we knew what was coming, and did not do enough to prepare. The accurate weather forecast made no real difference on the ground. When it started raining on Thursday morning and did not stop till Saturday, there was no sense of the scale of this emergency. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">More than 200 people lost their lives, dozens are still missing.</a> Thousands of homes were swept away, Nepal lost nearly half its electricity generation capacity because of damage to power plants, Kathmandu has been nearly cut off with bridges and sections of highways swept away. Yes, this was primarily a natural disaster. Kathmandu Valley and its surroundings got half the average annual precipitation in just 40 hours, the heaviest rainfall measured since records started being kept in 1972. But the high death toll was totally manmade.&nbsp; Three buses were buried by a mudslide in Dhading, killing at least 35 people. This was an eerie reminder of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/100-101-102-hh5uvzf9">Simaltal accident on 12 July </a>when two intercity buses were swept by a mudflow into the Trisuli River at night, killing 62. The buses have still not been found.&nbsp; In both cases, heavy rainfall on a poorly engineered local road up the mountains triggered the initial landslide that swept debris to the highway below. This was manslaughter, not an ‘accident’.&nbsp; We said it then, and we are saying it now: most mountain roads follow no reason or science. It is a corruption-fed activity in which local governments and their cronies plan roads ad hoc and rent their own bulldozers. Debris accumulated during construction is dumped over the edge, where monsoon rains wash them to settlements, farms and highways below. Last weekend’s disaster is a warning that accurate weather early warning is just the first step – it is not enough to prevent a huge loss of life. After the warnings, there should have been door-to-door miking along hazardous river banks urging people to move to higher ground, shelters should have been in place, rescue equipment and rafts pre-positioned, live monitoring of precipitation in the catchments. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) was just posting situationers on social media. The Home Ministry became a Ministry of Condolences and Empty Promises.&nbsp; This disaster is a reminder of the 1993 Central Nepal cloudburst that hit the Lothar Khola in Chitwan, the Kulekhani areas, and highways blocked highways marooning Kathmandu for weeks. More than 1,300 people were killed.&nbsp; The death toll in Kathmandu this time was compounded by the fact that the city has spread into the floodplains of the Vishnumati, Manohara and other tributaries of the Bagmati. Natural waterways have been hemmed in by streets. The rivers were just reclaiming what was theirs.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240930150944_1221b4fb442a21e8d2dbf1aeeca61b7a8d791c117d6a93401f15ba2a95d49a69.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240930150944_1221b4fb442a21e8d2dbf1aeeca61b7a8d791c117d6a93401f15ba2a95d49a69" data-rendition-name="original" width="1949" height="1299" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal floods"> <figcaption>Kathmandu Valley, especially its southern fringes looks like an epicentre of a major quake following the rains. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Urban pressure has also forced settlements to move up the Valley’s rim, below steep hillsides with topsoil already saturated in the late monsoon. The torrential downpours caused the slopes to fail. The damage to Upper Tamakosi and dozens of other hydropower plants also is a warning not to put all our eggs in one basket. The Sikkim disaster exactly this time last year was proof that these are at high risk from glacial lake floods and landslide dammed rivers suddenly bursting. More logical would be to build smaller, better designed, plants on many rivers. The Himalaya is also the youngest and most fragile mountain range on earth, Nepal has always had either too much or too little water, and climate breakdown is making this contrast more extreme. Combined, this means we in Nepal live in a multi-disaster prone country with seismic, hydrological and climate risks.&nbsp; After multiple floods in early 1990s, a Japanese grant helped set up the Disaster Prevention Technical Centre (DPTC) in Pulchowk, which was later renamed the Department of Water Induced Disaster Management. We have not heard much from them lately. With the government AWOL, it is ordinary Nepalis who have shown extraordinary courage in saving those being swept by flood water, rescuing babies on canoes (pictured), or digging for passengers trapped in buses buried by landslides. The Nepal Army and the Police rescued thousands, but there was an absence of coordination.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240930150944_cb55edb93eb3aad169b22bc4dec06b5478746fbe75417c628bf671ec698f7912.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240930150944_cb55edb93eb3aad169b22bc4dec06b5478746fbe75417c628bf671ec698f7912" data-rendition-name="original" width="1080" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal floods"> <figcaption>Photo: SOCIAL MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Now, the attention must focus on urgent relief and rehabilitation. But that might be a tall ask just before everything shuts down for Dasain, and when governance fails, lack of accountability and transparency is the norm even without holidays.&nbsp; Sonia Awale

When it rains it pours

The hallmark of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/mustang-forced-to-adapt-to-climate-crisis">climate breakdown in the Himalaya</a> is that it does not rain when and where it is supposed to, but pours at the wrong time in areas it ought not to. The trans-Himalayan Mustang region has had successive snowless winters but has experienced heavy monsoon downpours most characteristic of the southern foothills. But local and national governments seem ill-prepared to deal with this anomaly. The lack of readiness was seen in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/smoke-screen">unprecedented wildfires in March-April</a>, which was partly due to a long winter drought. Soon, the monsoon will be upon us and the government appears to be doing little more than quantifying the death and destruction from floods and landslides. On 13 August 2023, Namyak Gurung of Kagbeni in Mustang saw a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/remembering-the-seti-disaster">flash flood </a>that he had never seen in his 50-year life. Cloudbursts the day before set off landslides that dammed the Kag Khola, a tributary of the Kali Gandaki. &nbsp; The lake burst, destroying 30 of the 125 houses in the village. A police station, monasteries, bridges, a hospital, and a school were damaged. No one was killed because there were warning calls from people upstream. Nearly a year later, Kagbeni still looks like a war zone and the people dread the coming rainy season.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024052105050_0d7573f0ee787c01a56237486f98b6f2230ca3d3b6a9c778ce16841ba753e94c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2024052105050_0d7573f0ee787c01a56237486f98b6f2230ca3d3b6a9c778ce16841ba753e94c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Kagbeni flood"> </figure>  “I couldn’t leave the place of my ancestors," says Namyak who has relocated to his brother’s place after his two-storied building was destroyed. “I’m now building my new house a long way above the river. But I keep getting nightmares of another flood.”&nbsp; Tenzing Gurung, 36, was rescued from the second floor of her lodge in Kagbeni. Grey sand and boulders still cover the yard and the river now runs through what used to be the gate to her lodge. “I had never thought something like this could happen here,” says Tenzing. “We are scared, but where can we go?” The flood also damaged the local Janashanti Secondary School where two of Tenzing’s sons study. The school needs immediate relocation, but nothing has been done. “I just pray that the next flood doesn’t happen when my sons are in school,” adds Tenzing. Mustang and Manag districts are supposed to be in the Himalayan rainshadow, but <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come">precipitation patterns are changing</a>. Light monsoon rains have turned into destructive torrents followed by long periods of drought. In June 2021, Manang got all of its average annual rainfall of 300mm in just one week. A wall of water, mud, boulders and logs rushed down the Marsyangdi River, washing away the highway, bridges, settlements and other infrastructure in Taal and Chame villages. “We have seen that the trans-Himalayan regions are now getting more rain than before, the whole rainfall pattern has changed,” says meteorologist Rajendra Sharma of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). He adds: “In the past, when it rained in Mustang, it happened gently over a period of time but now, we get everything in a day or two. Such heavy downpours increase the risk of floods and landslides.”&nbsp; In the last 10 years, a total of 1,500 floods, 2,500 landslides, and 1,549 high rainfall events occurred across the country and killed 2,141 people, second only to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. Yet the state appears ill-prepared to prevent the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">loss of life and damage</a> — even though not all the destruction can be blamed solely on climate breakdown.&nbsp; “From the Manang and Melamchi floods in 2021 to last year’s Mustang, all of these are weather-related disasters, and the rate of these incidents has increased due to climate change,” says climate expert Dharma Upreti. Although climatologists do not directly blame individual disasters on climate change, they say there is a correlation between rising global temperatures, higher sea surface temperatures contributing to more water vapour in the atmosphere.&nbsp; The Himalaya is also heating faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. Melting mountains also pose the additional risk of glacial lake outbursts and avalanches.&nbsp; The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has projected above-normal rainfall for Nepal this monsoon. And with less than a month before the onset of the rains, Nepal is not prepared. And here in Kagbeni, people have still not recovered from last year’s disaster. The NDRRMA’s primary focus is post-disaster humanitarian aid and relief such as stockpiling food, medicines, tents, electricity supply and connectivity — <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disastrous-preparedness">not so much on preparedness</a>. “We do not have sufficient resources to manage damage caused by disasters year after year, the local government should step up,” says NDRRMA chief Anil Pokhrel. The lack of preparedness and coordination between line agencies means slow response to floods. Local governments are first responders, but do not have the financial support or technical know-how to deal with disasters on their own. Says district administrator Hom Bahadur Thapa Magar in Kagbeni: “Another monsoon is coming, and given what happened last year, we urgently need to build embankments but we do not have the resources or manpower to do so.”

Soon, monsoon

It was a bright Saturday morning on 5 May 2012, and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19285" target="_blank">Capt Alexander Maximov </a>of Avia Club was flying a tourist on a blue two-seater plane on a sightseeing flight of the Annapurnas. Looking down at the Seti River, he noticed that the water was not its usual white. There was a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" target="_blank">wall of dark debris racing down the river</a> trailed by a brown ribbon of floating logs. Maximov used to fly MiGs in the Soviet Air Force, and recognised it as a massive flash flood. He radioed Pokhara tower, and the air traffic controller called up the security forces who immediately informed the city’s FM stations. This early warning saved many lives, but 72 people were still killed 12 years ago this week in the Seti tragedy.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240511030512_10f6fca68c0a4b2f3c762b6dc2ef073b6eab4fd37f13b4977421c3705eb9efc9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240511030512_10f6fca68c0a4b2f3c762b6dc2ef073b6eab4fd37f13b4977421c3705eb9efc9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2350" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Screenshot of video taken by remote camera of a plane (left) piloted by Capt Alexander Maximov (right) of Avia Club Nepal. </figcaption> </figure>  The plane had a remote video camera on its wingtip which had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19285" target="_blank">recorded the source of this flood</a>: a massive rockfall near the summit of Annapurna IV that sent a cloud of brown dust billowing up to the sky. <a href="https://sandrp.in/2014/01/26/explained-seti-river-floods-in-may-2012-nepal-a-chain-of-events-starting-at-25000-feet/" target="_blank">Scientists have since pieced together</a> the sequence of events and found that ice and rock fell more than 5,000m causing a lake impounded in the Seti’s canyon by a smaller rockfall the previous week to burst. This event set in motion a large debris flow 10m high racing down the river. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/82937/making-sense-of-nepals-seti-river-disaster" target="_blank">Geologists say </a>the entire south face of the Annapurna massif is inherently unstable, so this was not the first flash flood to come down the rivers, and nor will it be the last. Climate breakdown may make such disasters even more frequent, with consequences for settlements and infrastructure downstream. The latest study by geologist Narayan Gurung three years ago made a hazard map of the Seti in case a similar flood should happen again. The reason is that the 7,525 Annapurna IV is said to be the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokhara-800-years-ago" target="_blank">remnant of a 500m higher peak that collapsed</a>, probably during a mega earthquake in 1255CE.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_a4366bcc1cdf1364986ad04661dc14757ddc39009236afd887be5fa7add06dda.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2024051103054_a4366bcc1cdf1364986ad04661dc14757ddc39009236afd887be5fa7add06dda" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="480" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>The flood as it approached crushers collecting boulders on the river bed as the water arrived at the Pokhara-Baglung Highway. Photo: ALEXANDER MAXIMOV/AVIA CLUB NEPAL</figcaption> </figure>  Deposits of that mountain collapse trapped ice and water in the headwaters of the Seti called the Sabche Cirque, which periodically burst, unleashing a series of mega floods more than 100m high. Pokhara today is situated on the debris fan of that cataclysm that also blocked side rivers and created Phewa, Rupa, Begnas and other lakes. Carbon dating of buried trees match historical records of a major earthquake in Nepal in 1255CE that also killed King Abhaya Malla of Kathmandu. Since then, there are geological signs of other major floods on the Seti, Madi, Mardi and Modi rivers that drain the southern flanks of Annapurna.&nbsp; Scientists warn that future floods on the Seti pose a major risk to Pokhara city and reservoir projects like Tanahu Hydropower and Upper Seti that are under construction on the river.&nbsp; “Another major earthquake in the region would easily mobilise the sediment in the Sabche Cirque and unleash another sudden flood,” says geologist Krishna KC. “Pokhara must have a hazard map, and strictly enforce zoning laws.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_40a6fe0195466a5274d40dbbe3f043a3b253ac443622784040fe227205e3f582.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024051103054_40a6fe0195466a5274d40dbbe3f043a3b253ac443622784040fe227205e3f582" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>A photograph taken at 9:38AM on 5 May 2012 at the point where Seti bursts into Pokhara Valley from its gorge.</figcaption> </figure>  The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has a district chapter in Kaski that has classified 10 of Pokhara’s wards as well as Annapurna and Machapuchre rural municipalities being at high risk from floods and landslides. But urban pressure means that people are building houses in high risk areas along the Seti’s terraces, and Pokhara Metropolis has been unable to prevent it. In the 2012 disaster, Pokara’s Annapurna FM was among the radio stations broadcasting urgent messages to people to move to higher ground. The station then worked with the government in search, rescue and relief. “But we are not prepared for another disaster like this, in fact it could be worse next time because there are now more people living along the very river banks that were swept away twelve years ago,” says Dipendra Shrestha of Annapurna FM. The sheer west face of Annapurna IV is still highly unstable, and has constant rockfalls that block the Seti, of which the 2012 event was a particularly big one. Says Prithvi Narayan Campus geography professor Ramji Pokhrel: “The Seti is a permanent danger, we must be strict about allowing settlements along its banks. But that is not happening.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_c23f1a9113a1140a9fbecd2c92a1769062e42382ce0e6fc78e5ae7b3e306eadd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2024051103054_c23f1a9113a1140a9fbecd2c92a1769062e42382ce0e6fc78e5ae7b3e306eadd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1120" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Seti River. Photo: DURGA RANA MAGAR</figcaption> </figure>  Climate breakdown makes the risk more real because of more frequent rockfalls, avalanches and extreme precipitation in the headwaters of the Seti. Geologist Krishna KC says all this does not mean that Pokhara is too dangerous to live in since there is no place on Earth that is without threat. But he adds, “The idea is to minimise the threat, take measures to adapt to the risk factors.”&nbsp; It was Saturday, and downstream in Kharapani people were bathing in the hot springs, and washing laundry on the banks of the Seti. Many had not heard the warnings, or did not heed it.&nbsp; Kharapani has been wiped off the map, and there is a memorial column here for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-Seti,362" target="_blank">those who died that day</a> and those still missing. It is also a testimony to the tragedy that struck here 12 years ago, and a &nbsp;stark reminder that, given the topography of the Annapurnas, it is best to be prepared for another big flood.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240510200512_fd6d6709d96608bac46e16a50b3acff4907f612868f75972b4ff120743f39482.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20240510200512_fd6d6709d96608bac46e16a50b3acff4907f612868f75972b4ff120743f39482" data-rendition-name="original" width="1074" height="710" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> </figure>  <ol> <li>At 9:10am on 5 May 2012, a huge chunk of ice and rock breaks off the south ridge of Annapurna IV.</li> <li>A remote camera on the wing of a sightseeing plane captures the dust cloud from the rockfall.</li> <li>The debris fell 3,000m first into an ice shelf and then into a lake impounded by a smaller rockfall the previous week, preceded by an air blast that flattened trees down valley.&nbsp;</li> <li>The Sabche Cirque contains eroded sediments from a possible collapse of Paleo-Annapurna IV 800 years ago.</li> <li>The Seti gorge is hundreds of metres deep but only a few metres wide.</li> <li>Possible location of impounded lake.</li> <li>The combined force of the water and melted ice from the avalanche races downstream.</li> <li>Kharapani</li> </ol> <h2>Lucky ones …</h2> The sun was shining that hot Saturday morning on 5 May 12 years ago, and families in the village of Sandal were on the banks of the Seti, bathing and washing. Children were swimming to cool off. The monsoon was more than a month away, and a flood was the last thing in the minds of people. Sandal, 20km north of Pokhara, is a recent settlement, and the inhabitants are mostly from the Tamang and Magar communities. This is the last settlement along the Seti, upstream from here the gorge is narrow and wild.&nbsp; Because they migrated here from outside, the inhabitants did not have inter-generational memory of floods, and the 11 households lived close to the river. Even 12 years after the deadly flood, Sandal still bears signs of the devastation with massive boulders strewn along the riverbed. Dilmaya Pun had neighbours over at her house to help out with work, and food preparation was late that morning. The guests were getting impatient, but it was this delay that saved their lives.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_94aaf35b21633bd4ea69bf446e6571aa8a33e8b4d4780945a62588964cf771e3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="2024051103054_94aaf35b21633bd4ea69bf446e6571aa8a33e8b4d4780945a62588964cf771e3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2196" height="1494" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Dilmaya Pun, who survived because of delays in cooking a meal. Photos: DURGA RANA MAGAR</figcaption> </figure>  “We were all preparing to go down to the river to volunteer in building a temporary log bridge, and if the food had arrived in time we would have been right there in the path of the flood,” Dilmaya says. A neighbour, Sanu Magar, still cannot believe her luck. “It was a weekend and the kids were joining the team putting together the bridge. Thank goodness the food was late.”&nbsp; The survivors remember the flood approaching with a thunderous roar in a wall of angry grey water that immediately swept away the logs for the bridge, corn fields and two houses. Dilmaya and Sanu gathered their children and ran to higher ground and watched their homes being washed away. Relief agencies resettled them higher up at Khobang where they built small makeshift huts, and did odd jobs since the land there was not suitable for farming. But after four years, the fear subsided somewhat and they returned to Sandal. There is now a new metal suspension bridge, and better off residents have moved to Pokhara or gone abroad. Only the elderly and children are left. In 2012, Uttam Tamang was 14 years old. He remembers watching in horror as the pasty sludge washed away the nearby market town of Kharapani. He says: “I will never forget that frightening day, it was just chance that saved me.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_8cb7686e7172e6f97f8f9b0402578169aa392bab84bc767a078d52f646971617.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="2024051103054_8cb7686e7172e6f97f8f9b0402578169aa392bab84bc767a078d52f646971617" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1155" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Uttam Tamang, who is still traumatised by what he saw 12 years ago as a boy. </figcaption> </figure>  Since it was a holiday he had walked from Sandal to the hot spring at Kharapani for a dip. He remembers some foreign tourists and many locals bathing in the sulphurous hot water. Suddenly, someone shouted “Flood (बाढी) coming!” But many heard “Tiger (बाघ) coming!” And thought it was a joke, but Uttam saw the wall of grey water approaching and ran back up the hill. He was so traumatised that he was afraid even to go back to his home in Sandal, and went to live with relatives in Pokhara. He dropped out of school, and regrets not being in college by now.&nbsp; “I am happy I survived, but the Seti took away my future, it took away everything,” says Uttam, now 24. During the monsoon, Sandal’s families move together to higher ground in Khobang, but even there the Upper Seti hydropower is digging a tunnel and the dynamite blasts shake the whole area.&nbsp; <h2>… and not so lucky</h2> Twelve years ago, Kharapani was becoming a popular destination for foreign and Nepali visitors drawn by the hot spring. But in a matter of minutes that Saturday morning the entire market town was swept away. Of the 72 who perished that day, 69 were from Kharapani — three of them Ukrainian tourists.&nbsp; Min Bahadur Bhujel used to work as a labourer hammering stones for a construction contractor at the Bhujrung Khola confluence upstream from Kharapani. His wife Rama and daughter Dipa had tried to convince him not to go to work that day because it was time to plant corn.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_f692cfda299180e5fa59c74ac33e3b2fbd39e47115bf430ddd40b37e376ee862.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="2024051103054_f692cfda299180e5fa59c74ac33e3b2fbd39e47115bf430ddd40b37e376ee862" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1158" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Min Bahadur Bhujel's wife Rama Bhujel with a framed photo of her husband.</figcaption> </figure>  “I’ll go, at least I will earn some money,” Min Bahadur, who was 46 then, had said. That was the last his family saw of him. Dipa is now 28 and married, her brother is 23 and works as a driver. Both dropped out of school. The family had struggled after losing the sole earner. For Rama, the only hope is now from her children, she looks lovingly at a framed photo of her husband and says, “All I have now is this picture of him.” Kumari BK also has a framed photo of her son, Anil who at age 15 was already aware of his responsibility to take care of his family. He worried about the hardship his mother faced raising him and his brother.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024051103054_8ef506a7578fe5cb8e7c5bf17bef6fd56a15371d70fa1d708797b2e125030945.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="2024051103054_8ef506a7578fe5cb8e7c5bf17bef6fd56a15371d70fa1d708797b2e125030945" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1165" loading="lazy" alt="Remembering the Seti disaster Page 10-11 NT #1211"> <figcaption>Kumari BK with a photograph of her 15-year-old son Anil who was swept away.</figcaption> </figure>  He was not going to school regularly, and saw no reason to. That Saturday he had gone down to the river to crush stones. “He went to earn a little daily wage so he could take care of us, but he left us for good,” Kumari says. “By now he would have been earning enough to take care of us.” Even more than the bereavement of the family of those who were killed that day is the unending grief of the families of those whose bodies were never found. They know their relatives are gone, but there is still a sliver of hope.&nbsp; Gopal Tamrakar, who was 71 at the time, and his son and daughter-in-law owned a shop in Kharapani, and were making a decent living. Gopal had come to meet his son Kalyan briefly, and headed down to the market. That was the last the family saw of Gopal. Now there is only a photo on Kalyan’s mobile phone. Kalyan’s brother was also caught in the flood. He held on to his wife, Basundhara, and daughter with both hands but the force of the water took his wife away. Basundhara’s body was never found. Kalyan’s brother has not been the same since.

Remembering the Seti disaster

The 7.2M Taiwan earthquake on 3 April was a reminder for us here in Nepal about the importance of preparation with up to code infrastructure, earthquake early warning sensors hooked to mobile &nbsp;networks, seismic risk education in schools, and swift emergency response.&nbsp;
Although 13 people were killed, readiness saved lives. Skyscrapers shook and swayed but did not fall, high-rises tilted but did not collapse. A similar intensity earthquake in Taiwan in 1999 had killed 2,400 people. &nbsp;
This week marks nine years since Nepal’s 2015 earthquakes that killed nearly 9,000 people. It has been four months since a 6.4M quake <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">struck Jajarkot and West Rukum</a> near midnight on 3 November, claiming 153 lives.&nbsp;
In the immediate aftermath of 2015, building codes, earthquake-resistant designs and retrofitting became high priority. But as memories fade, so does the fear. Nine years on, buildings <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-of-high-rises">including high-rises that flout zoning and building codes</a> have come up in Kathmandu while <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-occupation-of-tundikhel">open spaces have further shrunk</a>.&nbsp;
Himalayan seismologists have warned that 2015 was not the Big One, the kind of quake that hits central Nepal every 80 or so years. Neither was Jajarkot the megaquake scientists had expected in western Nepal’s seismic gap. As we have been saying in this paper for the last 24 years, the next big earthquake is ‘not a matter of if, but when’.
While the 14 districts affected by the 2015 disaster have now mostly been rebuilt, and are better prepared, the rest of the country is not. A &gt;8M megaquake in Western Nepal would be a trans-boundary disaster of unthinkable proportions.
In Jajarkot and West Rukum, many <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/jajarkot-survivors-show-collective-resilience">survivors spent the winter </a>without a roof over their heads, and they still await relief to rebuild. The National &nbsp;Reconstruction Authority (NRA) might have taken nine months to set up after the 2015 earthquake, but that disaster should have been a lesson for timely assessment for earthquake relief at the very least.
Nepal is a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">landmine of disasters</a>. Nearly 350 people have died just in the past year in floods, landslides, lightning, and forest fires, and not including Jajarkot. We are now in the thick of wildfire season. Hundreds of forest fires are burning across the country, some for weeks. Three fire-fighting soldiers and three children picking mushrooms were killed by wind-fanned flames just in the past week.&nbsp;
The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-suffers-another-winter-drought">prolonged winter drought</a> should have warned us that this year, the fires would be much worse. But adding fuel to the fires, as it were, is the new trend of burning wheat straw after harvest by farmers.&nbsp;
Fire is always followed by flood, and this year, weather models predict above-normal monsoon precipitation. As it is, monsoons have become erratic with extreme downpours followed by weeks without rain. Mohan Mainali’s ongoing series in Nepali Times <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/people-and-mountains-are-thirsty-in-eastern-nepal">analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal </a>shows that Nepal has always suffered from either too little or too much water, and this has contributed to outmigration.
Landslides triggered by heavy rainfall along Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">poorly designed roads</a> in never-ending states of construction magnify the risk. Landslides can also frequently block rivers, which raises the need for early warning systems.
And if all this was not bad enough, we have the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">threat of GLOFs </a>from glacial lakes swollen with ice melted by climate breakdown. The water level in the Tso Rolpa glacial lake in Rolwaling was reduced by 3m in 2002, and the water level of Imja Lake was lowered after the 2015 earthquake to mitigate the risk of GLOFs. But these lakes continue to expand as the Himalaya warms 0.7oC faster than the global average.&nbsp;
Thulagi glacial lake below Himalchuli is another one in danger of bursting, and would wash away four hydropower projects downstream on the Marsyangdi River. A GLOF from the precariously situated Lake 464 in the Hinku Valley would race down the Dudh Kosi Valley, into the Sun Kosi and right down to the Tarai.&nbsp;
While these lakes are all dangerous by themselves, they could burst simultaneously during a major earthquake. Which means Nepal must be prepared not just for earthquakes, but the co-seismic risk of catastrophic debris flows along its rivers.&nbsp;
Disaster preparedness means knowing and acknowledging potential without spreading panic and crying wolf. And:&nbsp;
<ul>
 <li>Stockpiling and pre-positioning food and other relief materials</li>
 <li>Investing in search and rescue equipment and training</li>
 <li>Safety drills and earthquake education in schools</li>
 <li>Decentralised first responders with aerial medevac</li>
</ul>
Shristi Karki

Disastrous preparedness

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Recent outrage in Sikkim over an Indian Army expedition climbing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga">Kangchenjunga</a>, the world’s third-highest peak, has spiked attention to the need to balance mountaineering jobs with indigenous reverence for sacred landmarks. Kangchenjunga (8,586m) is not a peak as much as it is a mountain range with 16 peaks above 7,000m on the border between India and Nepal -- the word itself means ‘five treasures of the snows’ in Tibetan. Some of the highest prominences like Kangchenjunga West and Kangbachen are in Nepal, while the Main, Central and South Peaks are on the border. Climbing the peak from the Indian side has been banned since 2001 because the indigenous Lepcha community there regard the mountain as the abode of Dzoe-nga, the patron deity of Sikkim, which was an independent Himalayan Kingdom until it was annexed by India in 1975.&nbsp; Buddhists in Sikkim say their saint, Padmasambhava, recognised the mountain as a protective spirit. The state has declared the base of the mountain Kangchenjunga National Park, which covers an area one-third of Sikkim. ‘The act of scaling this sacred peak is not only a matter of serious concern but also a violation of both the prevailing legal provisions and the deeply held religious beliefs of the people of Sikkim,’ read a letter from Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang (Golay) to Amit Shah, India’s Minister of Home Affairs and Cooperation.&nbsp; Tamang continued: ‘We further request Your Honour to take up the issue with the Government of Nepal to ensure that no future expeditions are permitted on the sacred mountain, in deference to the deeply held beliefs and cultural values of the people of Sikkim.’ Kangchenjunga was climbed for the first time exactly 70 years ago by a British team who told King Tashi Namgyal, the Choegyal of Sikkim, that they would not set foot on the summit. Since then, there have been about 532 successful climbs of the peaks and 52 have died while trying.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1782" height="1178" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Indigenous communities in Sikkim held purification ceremonies following the Indian expedition to Kangchenjunga. Photo: THE VOICE OF SIKKIM / FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-climbing-season-2025-s4abrxny">This spring climbing season</a> alone, there were 70 climbing permits for foreigners issued for Kangchenjunga by the Nepal government, and made it to the top while one French climber died.&nbsp; One of the expeditions this year was an Indian Army team led by Col Ranveer Jamwal, who has summited the highest peaks on all seven continents, and Mt Everest thrice. Jamwal’s team was on the final leg of a ‘<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/nimas-summits-mt-kangchenjunga-concludes-historic-har-shikhar-tiranga-mission-successfully/articleshow/121341315.cms?from=mdr">Har Shikhar Tiranga</a>’ (The Tricolour on Every Peak) mission to plant the Indian flag at the highest points of each of India’s 28 states. Kanchenjunga was the last peak they had left, and the hardest, but the expedition put five climbers on the summit. What seems to have incensed the Sikkimese is that while it has banned climbing the mountain from its side, it was an Indian military expedition that went to Nepal to climb the mountain. After news broke of the climb in May, the Sikkim Indigenous Lepcha Tribal Association asked people to observe purification ceremonies in temples across the state. Mayalmit Lepcha of the association acknowledged that the Sikkim government was also partly at fault: “I don’t think such an expedition could have gone forward without the state government being informed, so it could have done something to intervene. It shows weakness. What’s done is done, all we can do is carry out these sanctification ceremonies.”&nbsp; In 2000, one year before Sikkim’s ban, the state allowed an Austrian team to attempt Kanchenjunga’s northeast face for a fee of $20,000, on agreement that they would stop 10m before the summit. Despite this, there was outrage over the expedition on the grounds that it violated Indian laws regarding the defiling of religious sites and Sikkim’s rights to maintain its culture after merging with India. The Indian Army expedition was also seen to have circumvented Sikkim’s law and violated religious sensibilities by going through Nepal. While the team may have thought they were respecting Sikkim’s beliefs by finding a way to complete the mission, the people of Sikkim saw it as defilement.&nbsp; The somber mood of the Sikkim people at the ritual contrasts sharply with Jamwal’s sense of accomplishment. “Without a doubt, the most difficult summit of my life,” he told reporters after the climb. “It tested every ounce of our will.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157" data-rendition-name="original" width="787" height="377" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Prayer flags along the Sikkim-Kangchenjunga trekking route. Photo: TREKKINGININDIA.COM</figcaption> </figure>  The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-nims-purja">controversial Nepali-British mountaineer Nirmal Purja</a> was also on Kangchenjunga this spring the mountain, on a mission to summit all 14 8,000m peaks for a third time. He echoed Jamwal about the tough conditions: “The conditions above camp were extremely tough, with deep snow and challenging terrain—more crevasses than usual.” Nepal’s government has not said anything publicly, but it is unlikely that it will ban climbing on Kangchenjunga, since it is becoming popular with expeditions because of its technical challenges, and overcrowding on Mt Everest. Nepal does have bans in place for some of its mountains out of respect for local beliefs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/to-open-machapuchre-for-mountaineering-or-not">Mt Machapuchre</a> (6,990m) the imposing pyramid that looms over Pokhara, for example, is seen as an icon of purity by the Gurung people and a symbol of Vishnu by the Hindu communities who live at its base. A strict climbing ban has been in place since 1957, when a British expedition led by Col Jimmy Roberts stopped 45m short of the summit – either because the last bit was too difficult or out of deference to local sentiments.&nbsp; Khumbila that stands above Namche Bazar is only 5,761m high, but like Kanchenjunga is considered the protector deity of the Sherpa people. Gauri Shankar on the Nepal-China border, called Chomo Tseringma by the local community, was off-limits between 1965 and 1979 due to its association with Lord Shiva and Gauri, his consort. Although expeditions are now allowed, there are not too many takers. In Tibet, climbing Mount Kailash is prohibited by the Chinese government because it revered by the Hindus, Buddhists and followers of the Bon faith. Even Mt Everest is regarded as sacred, and its Sherpa name is Chomolungma, Goddess Mother of the Earth.&nbsp; Economically, climbs on Kanchenjunga bring in decent revenue. This climbing season, the 41 permits, at $1,800 each, brought in $73,800. This is somewhat comparable to Makalu, Lhotse, and Annapurna I, but these numbers are dwarfed by the $4 million in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-everest-industry">Everest permits</a>. Revenue from Kanchenjunga climbing permits is something Nepal could potentially forgo if necessary, but the expeditions also provide jobs to hundreds of high altitude guides, porters, base camp support staff and other logistical costs.&nbsp; As the third highest mountain in the world and the tallest in India, there will always be significant motivation to climb it from the Nepal side, especially as climbers are drawn by the technical climbing at high altitude.

Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb?

The debate about who is less accountable to the public: politicians or bureaucrats is as old as Nepal’s democracy itself.
Some blame politicians for being beholden to the businessmen who finance their electoral campaigns, and are forced to return the favour with contracts and kickbacks when in power.&nbsp;
Others say it is civil servants who are neither civil nor servants, and know the inner workings of the system to exploit loopholes – they then teach ministers, MPs, mayors, or ward chairs which juicy projects can be squeezed. And everyone gets their share.
In reality, it is probably not a case of either, or. Both have their hands deep in the honey pot. Corruption is now such a given that yet another exposé in the mainstream press, like the latest visit-visa scam, does not raise eyebrows anymore.
We may have to edit Lord Acton’s famous quote to say that in Nepal we do not even need absolute power to corrupt absolutely. The ruling cartel has divvied up the spoils, so that no one ever faces charges. The three parties all know about the skeletons rattling in each other’s closets, and they cancel each other out.
Politicians and bureaucrats get all the blame for taking bribes, but what of the givers of bribes? In this crony capitalism, businesses invariably need political patrons in an elaborate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">national network of give-and-take</a>.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">Politicians and businesses work hand-in-glove</a> so that conflict of interest in contracts, insider trading, cartelling, and non-performing assets of banks become the norm. Our survey after the 2017 local election showed that out of the 753 newly-elected local government chairs, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/elected-contractors" target="_blank">nearly 300 were contractors</a> involved in sand-mining, quarrying, or transportation syndicates.
Nepal’s tycoons have discovered that instead of donating to election war chests of politicians, it is a much surer return on investment to spend the money to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal" target="_blank">become legislators and politicians themselves</a>.
In democracies, there are checks and balances to control corruption when it becomes endemic. The Nepal Police and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are supposed to do the detective work without political interference. The courts are required to be independent in dispensing justice and punishing crooks.
But the less said about the judiciary the better. A writ petition in the Supreme Court last week accused our sister magazine <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> of contempt of court for two stories: one about how high courts have been overturning a majority of verdicts of district courts in cases of rape, and another about the Biratnagar High Court clearing a self-proclaimed holy man, Krishna Bahadur Giri, of rape despite police presenting physical evidence.
The doctrine of the separation of powers stipulates that it is when the other three pillars in a democracy are compromised that the role of the free press becomes even more vital. The world over, as soon as populist autocrats are elected to the executive, their first order of business is to co-opt the legislature and the judiciary. Then they buy off, intimidate, or neutralise the media with Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPP).
Nepal’s officialdom seems to be taking midnight Zoom lessons from other despots on how to gag the media. Last month, popular talk show host Dil Bhushan Pathak was served an arrest warrant by the Kathmandu District Court for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CntsnTrtG8" target="_blank">a YouTube explainer</a> about the alleged involvement of the son of Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana in a reported purchase of Kathmandu’s Hilton Hotel.
The Lalitpur District Court ruled that Pathak could not be arrested without fair trial, but this week the Kathmandu District Court filed another case against the journalist based on a complaint by the Cyber Bureau, and put him on a fugitive list.&nbsp;
Without going into the veracity of Pathak’s explainer, it is deeply problematic that the Electronic Transaction Act has been invoked – proof that politicians are getting the courts and investigating agencies to make an example of a high profile journalist.&nbsp;
The intention is to silence media investigations into the fake refugee scandal in which the main partner in the ruling coalition is implicated, and in which one of its former home ministers was jailed last year.
The Kathmandu High Court has been mysteriously active in targeting journalists these days. <a href="https://bizmandu.com/" target="_blank">Bizmandu</a> and <a href="https://nepalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">Nepalkhabar</a> were served a notice last month <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-freedom-after-expression-y4inku06" target="_blank">to withdraw a story they did</a> on the Chair of the <a href="https://www.sebon.gov.np/" target="_blank">Security and Exchange Board of Nepal (SEBON</a>) Santosh Narayan Shrestha allegedly demanding kickbacks from hydropower investors.&nbsp;
Incredibly, the court even asked the two portals not to report on the subject anymore – a ruling so absurd that the Patan High Court overturned it a week later.&nbsp;
The allegations against Shrestha were made in a public meeting of the <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN)</a>, and MPs demanded a <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/parliament-demands-probe-into-sebon-chairman-over-alleged-commission-demand-40-32.html" target="_blank">Parliament inquiry</a> into the regulator. <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/144523/santosh-narayan-shrestha" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> reported this week that while Shrestha was reportedly demanding commissions from private investors for IPOs, he cleared primary share sales in Bajhang’s 10.75MW <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Bungal Hydro</a> in which his family members have investments, company records show.
And then just on Monday, bureaucrats hoodwinked MPs by deleting references in a bill requiring a two-year ‘cooling off’ period under which retiring civil servants could be barred from holding constitutional positions for two years.
The contest for who is more corrupt: bureauacrats, politicians, or the private sector is on.
Kunda Dixit

SLAPPing Democracy

In 2023, northern India suffered record-breaking heat. In 2024, it broke its own record. In 2025, the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Nepal Tarai suffered a prolonged pre-monsoon heat wave and humidity, forcing closure of schools and workplaces. This week, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/europe-heat-wave-intensifies-as-fresh-warnings-issued/live-73108302">southern Europe is suffering the worst heat wave</a> since temperature records began. Football matches, tennis tournaments have been affected, and tourist sites have been closed off. Qatar has ordered a midday work curfew for Nepali and other migrant workers are the maximum temperature this week touched 45°C.&nbsp; Kathmandu Valley experienced its highest temperature in 25 years in May 2024 at 35.3°C. This year, the maximum temperature exceeded 30°C on many days — heat that till a decade ago would be considered unusual. Rains in early June also meant that towns in the mountains sweltered under high heat plus humidity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1935" height="801" loading="lazy" alt="maximum average temperature in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: DHM</figcaption> </figure>  Measuring just temperature does not give a true picture of how hot it is. When humidity is factored in, the heat index this summer has been much higher in northern India and Nepal. Also, the hotter the air temperature the higher the concentration of water vapour in it. “We feel it is getting hotter, and our statistics back that up,” says Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issued two heat wave warnings this year, compared to 11 last year. “We need more research to analyse how humidity is make this situation worse.” <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-faces-alarming-30-rise-in-moist-heat-stress-over-40-years-affecting-wide-swath-of-country-imd-study/articleshow/109376863.cms?from=mdr">A recent analysis</a> by the Indian Meteorological Department has found that heat stress in that country has increased by nearly 30% over the past 40 years. Similarly, India’s Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) noted that cities like Delhi, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and Lucknow have experienced a 6-9% rise in relative humidity in the last decade.&nbsp; It also states that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/majority-indian-districts-face-high-heatwave-risk-study-shows-2025-05-20/#:~:text=%22About%2057%20per%20cent%20of,usual%20number%20of%20heatwave%20days.">60% of Indian districts</a>, home to three-quarters of the country’s 1.3 billion people face a high to very high risk from extreme heat, with rising night-time temperatures and humidity. The heat index is also called ‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">wet-bulb temperature</a>’ and is a measure of how hot the human body feels when humidity levels are also high — usually much hotter than the recorded temperature. For example, a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C is considered the maximum limit of heat and humidity that humans can handle, beyond which the body cannot cool by perspiration, leading to death. One indicator of increasing humidity is a rise in average minimum temperature, and Nepal recorded the highest figure since 1981 last year, with a peak of 15.8°C. Higher minimum temperature denotes warmer nights, which in turn is an indication of heat stress caused by increasing humidity, which in turn is a result of global warming. Aside from higher average temperatures worldwide this year, what makes heat and humidity more unbearable is that cities are always hotter than their surroundings. This is due to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/preparing-for-kathmandu-s-heat-waves">urban heat island (UHI) effect</a> – for example the temperature inside Kathmandu’s Ring Road can be hotter by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/what-are-heat-islands">up to 4°C during the daytime and by 1 to 3°C in the evening</a> compared to the outskirts. “Climate change is one reason for rising temperature, but there are other factors like increased heat in urban spaces due to concrete buildings and infrastructure, emissions from vehicles, industries, and home appliances,” explains urban planner Bhushan Tuladhar. He adds: “Much of this comes down to how we have developed our cities, not just our roads and buildings but also our water system, waste management, culture and customs as well as economy.” There is a feedback loop at work: as it gets hotter, more energy is used for fans, coolers, and air-conditioners which in turn add to the urban heat bubble. The way to reduce the UHI effect is to have more parks, tree-lined streets and water bodies to cool cities down.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212095525002093">A recent study published in the journal Urban Climate</a> by Nepali researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Tribhuvan University, University of Groningen, etc showed that even within Kathmandu, urban forests cooled neighbourhoods by as much as 1.2°C while ponds reduced the temperature by up to 0.85°C compared to nearby houses.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2580" height="1038" loading="lazy" alt="urban heat island in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: URBAN CLIMATE et al.</figcaption> </figure>  ‘Our results demonstrate that blue-green spaces provide significant cooling benefits across the Kathmandu Valley, with distinct patterns by type, size, design, and urban context,’ concluded the paper, whose lead author is Saurav Bhattarai at Jackson State University in the United States. The old towns in Kathmandu Valley with traditional brick and tile architecture, ponds and trees managed hot summers better. Compact houses around a courtyard gave people just the right amount of sunlight, and use of clay mortar and bricks insulated houses in winter while cooling them in summer. There were open spaces, fertile land along the floodplains for farming, and brick pavements that allowed for seepage. “Our cities were planned taking nature into account,” says Sangeeta Singh, a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering. “Kathmandu Valley is now built up, but we can still reintegrate blue-blue spaces into town planning with vertical gardening, urban forestry, using local material and harvesting rainwater.”&nbsp; Kathmandu’s municipalities have by-laws controlling building design and structure, but strict enforcement of land use and zoning are missing. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the urban poor who may not have access to fans or air-conditioners, exacerbating poverty.&nbsp; Cities in the plains have it even worse. As heat and humidity rise simultaneously, it could <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/garmi-se-behal-chalo-nepal">reverse the current mass migration</a> of people from the mountains to the Tarai, where 53% of Nepal’s population lives. <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/92fbbbc6180238e18e7b239fad83e38a-0280032024/original/12-DHNT-Temperature-poverty-inequality-September-2024.pdf">A World Bank study</a> put the cost of a 1°C rise in temperature at 17.1% increase in poverty globally. Estimates put the total number of urban poor in developing countries exposed to the worst heat extremes at 26 million presently, this number is bound to grow to 215 million by mid-century, an over eight-fold increase. Meanwhile, 489,000 health-related deaths occur each year, 45% of them in Asia alone. “Heat has to be seen from a class perspective,” says Singh. “Those with money can afford gadgets and appliances to keep their homes and offices cool, but not day labourers or poor families living in cramped housing with poor ventilation.” Climate breakdown is going to widen the class divide in cities, as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">summers become unliveable</a>. Says Singh: “We need policy intervention to address this class injustice. Our building by-laws and new town development must urgently integrate climate and energy efficiency elements.”

In the heat of the moment

She made <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/mira-rai-trail-running,1776" target="_blank">headlines in 2014</a>: a young woman from the mountains of eastern Nepal had just won the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/mira-rai-trail-running,1776" target="_blank">50km Himalayan Outdoor</a> trail race. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/mira-rai-trail-running-nepa,2014" target="_blank">Mira Rai </a>was 23 then, the only Nepali female in the race. She had no training, no proper shoes, just a cotton t-shirt and shorts, and did not even know what trail running was. Two months later, helped by organisers who saw her talent, she won three more international trail races. Mira Rai has been running all her life. She grew up running up and down from her village to the market town in Hile across the Arun River, carrying sacks of salt or rice with her mother. The farm did not grow enough food to feed her five siblings.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250704130720_e5da28789a551276269846e379c971d7dfd185a08dd05b271281f1bfc3d45fe8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250704130720_e5da28789a551276269846e379c971d7dfd185a08dd05b271281f1bfc3d45fe8" data-rendition-name="original" width="1192" height="1386" loading="lazy" alt="Mira Rai"> </figure>  At age 12, Mira was already carrying 12kg on her back, while her mother carried 60kg on the two-day roundtrip from Bhojpur to Dhankuta. One day in 2004, while carrying rice on the trail she was caught up in a Maoist ambush of a Royal Nepal Army patrol. She escaped as bullets whizzed by.&nbsp; At 14, she became a child soldier for the Maoist militia. Although she did not see action, after the ceasefire in 2006 she was sent with other guerrillas to the demobilisation camp in Sindhuli. There was not much to do at camp, and she excelled in running, taking part in the 5 and 10km marathons in the National Sports Championship. But because she was still 17, and a minor she was ‘disqualified’ by UNMIN peacekeepers, and went on to finish high school.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250704130716_ea2110a27490f529bb6081da1f6cf5922caa6280d36770bfa534f1b657f3638d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250704130716_ea2110a27490f529bb6081da1f6cf5922caa6280d36770bfa534f1b657f3638d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1605" height="1050" loading="lazy" alt="Mira Rai"> </figure>  Today, ten years after winning her first race and being catapulted to fame, Nepal’s most famous runner is here in Colorado raising funds from sponsors all over the world for her <a href="https://miraraiinitiative.org/" target="_blank">Mira Rai Initiative</a>, earning money on the side, and running every weekend on trails in the Rockies.&nbsp; In 2020, grounded by the lockdowns and while recovering from a knee injury, she led anti-pollution drives in Kathmandu and launched the Mira Rai Initiative <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mira-rai-racing-to-help-other-runners/" target="_blank">helping other youngsters in athletics</a>. The program trains up to six Nepali trail runners a year, which from November will be conducted from her new Training Centre on the outskirts of Kathmandu. Among runners she has trained in the past are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/sunmaya-budha-stays-in-the-running" target="_blank">Sunmaya Budha</a> and Humi Budha Magar, who have gone on to win in international trail running championships. “First I ran with my mother to support the family, then I ran for my country, now I run for myself and others like me,” Rai told us from across the table at a Nepali restaurant in Denver. &nbsp; Trophies have followed <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-run-maya-run,522" target="_blank">Mira Rai wherever she runs</a>. She won gold medals in the 180km Mustang Trail Race, the 56km <a href="https://www.visittrentino.info/en/guide/what-to-do/events/dolomyths-run-sellaronda-ultra-trail_e_49388311" target="_blank">Selloronda Ultra Trail</a> in Italy in 6 hours 36 minutes and 30 seconds, and came second in the 83km <a href="https://www.vivereilgrappa.it/en/events-schedule/trail-of-the-heroes-2018-edition.htm" target="_blank">Trail of Heroes</a> also in Italy in 9 hours and 16 minutes.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250704130720_4327e578886d24115461e3c9bfd01804349e657faabd62fd5c34baf9bbbccb9a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250704130720_4327e578886d24115461e3c9bfd01804349e657faabd62fd5c34baf9bbbccb9a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1118" height="1672" loading="lazy" alt="Mira rai"> </figure>  She came first in the Hong Kong 50km <a href="https://hkaaa.com/en/comp_details.php?id=258" target="_blank">MSJK HK </a>ultra race and won a silver in the Kings of the Hills. In 2015, just after the earthquake back home, she won the <a href="https://www.redbull.com/gb-en/theredbulletin/mira-rai-interview" target="_blank">Mont Blanc Sky Race</a>, and held up the Nepal flag as she broke the record.&nbsp; In 2017 she won gold again in the 120km <a href="http://www.bennevisrace.co.uk/" target="_blank">Ben Nevis Race</a> on Britain’s highest hill in 14 hours 24 minutes, a new record. That same year, she was also selected to be the National Geographic Adventurer of the Year. A documentary about her, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23k0IjToo0A" target="_blank">Mira</a>, was shown to much acclaim at the Banff and Vancouver film festivals, and she is featured in the Lily Dyu book Fantastic Female Adventurers.

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