Several things come into play with the Nepal government’s new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6146&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Integrity Policy</a> that wants to tighten control over the activities of international NGOs and donor governments. Most of them relate to the country’s sense of integrity and sovereignty.It is quite normal for a government to monitor and control the flow of non-corporate funds coming into one’s country. There are mechanisms already in place in Nepal to ensure that aid organisations and special interest groups can channel funds to government, institutions, non-government organisations and projects in Nepal.The bureaucracy involved for approval varies depending on project parameters. On a global scale, Nepal is considered fairly liberal in this sense, and there is a long history of foreign support for aid and infrastructure projects.Governments in the past have also been more tolerant than most in giving free rein to outside agencies to help with infrastructure, development, and even constitution-writing, transitional justice and human rights.Of late, such aid projects have also included extreme evangelical Christian missionaries that are seen as undermining local culture and religion and upsetting the old order. The claim is that money buys souls. Perhaps worse for the government is that money also buys politics, and with a quasi-communist coalition as the leading power, this is not appreciated.		
		<img width="424" height="571" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6c39c7e80680e0314a2jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Two emerging global powers are Nepal’s immediate neighbours: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/elementor-3766/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China and India which are vying for a foothold</a> enabling them to adjust Nepal’s internal and external politics to suit their interests. Neither country is tolerant of foreigners, and have strict controls on the activities of non-governmental players and outside agencies.Money can buy sympathy in the countryside and concessions at the central level. And there is more. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/foreign-aid-covering-domestic-deficiencies-nepal,1338" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal wants to have the funds, clearly, but on her own terms</a>. Those terms appear to involve further control measures and prohibitions. The government will be happy to get rid of all the perceived negative influencers, but it seems to throw out the baby with the bath water.A full implementation of some of the suggested measures in the draft Policy make it much less attractive to work in Nepal for aid agencies, and there are other takers ready elsewhere.Nepal is in a process of devolving power to provincial and local governments, at the same time the central government wants centralisation of financial assistance.Aid organisations and similar outfits don’t want to have to go through the Ministry of Finance, and clear funds there before disbursement. Even worse, the new Policy has stricter guidelines for foreign diplomats, the activities of aid groups and even proposes a surveillance mechanism under the Ministry of Home Affairs and the security agencies to monitor the activities of foreigners.The current channel for aid agencies to work through is the Social Welfare Council policy/registration system which is seen as more workable to get funds straight to legitimate recipients. Why fix something that isn't broken?Olav Myrholt is a social development worker based in Norway with a special interest in Nepal for the last 40 years.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6121&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Illiberal ills</a> , Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6152&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Govt issues draft guidelines for public hygiene</a>, Backside

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Nepal wants funds, but on her own terms

<h4>The government’s new guidelines for dealings between Nepalis and foreign donors raises hackles</h4><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6c09c7e80680e0314a1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1055"/><figcaption>Bhanu Bhattarai</figcaption></figure>In a sign of its new assertiveness, the Nepal government has issued a draft document laying down strict guidelines about what aid agencies and non-government groups can and cannot do. But critics say its provisions are too broad, and could easily be misused to silence critics at home and restrict the activities of international groups in Nepal.The National Integrity Policy is aimed at ‘promoting integrity and transparency’ in all spheres of public life, guiding the conduct of public officials, and regulating the activities especially of western aid agencies, INGOs and civil society groups working on democracy and human rights.Detractors say it is prompted by the establishment class feeling insecure about losing its grip on power and privileges. The document appears to be a backlash against the funding indigenous and excluded groups received from western donors during the Constitution-drafting process. It also seems to be a reaction to heightened activities of evangelical groups in Nepal.Here are just some of the items in the new directive:<ul><li>INGOs cannot forward any reports to headquarters or donors without first submitting them to, and securing approval from, the government.</li> 	<li>NGOs must report foreign individuals or agencies involved in ‘activities against Nepal, Nepali civilisation or social harmony’ to the authorities.</li> 	<li>I/NGOs and foreigners are barred from ‘levelling unwarranted charges against Nepal ... and spreading hatred’.</li> 	<li>Security agencies under the Home Ministry will monitor foreigners to check if they are working against the ‘national interest’.</li> 	<li>Nepali officials meeting foreign diplomats should not work against Nepal’s ‘national interest’ and should maintain secrecy.</li> 	<li>l Foreign embassies cannot disburse development aid directly.</li></ul>The Association of International NGOs in Nepal and the NGO Federation have slammed the draft, arguing that they are impractical and create unnecessary hassles, while admitting there may be some wayward and opaque NGOs that need to be reined in.What diplomats and aid officials are worried about is that the policy has ambiguous provisions that can be used to shut down any I/NGO, aid agency, or deport foreigners. Such broad rules could also be used to target critical civil society groups and political dissidents.To be sure, the idea to silence civil society is not new. After king Gyanendra’s coup in February 2005, the Army cracked down on pro-democracy forces, putting Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba under house arrest, jailing political dissidents, and forcing many to go underground.As political parties regrouped, thousands of NGOs and civil society members fought back to reclaim democracy. The king saw civil society as a direct threat to his authoritarian ambition, and jailed many members. He announced new controls on non-profits, INGOs and donors similar to the ones in this draft National Integrity Policy.Deuba returned to power 12 years later, and his first decision in 2017 in his fourth term as prime minister was to do exactly what king Gyanendra had tried: restrict civil society, international donors and diplomatic missions.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6121&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Illiberal ills</a> , EditorialHe chose two government secretaries known to be vocal critics of international agencies and donors to formulate his National Integrity Policy. It was clearly guided by suspicions that <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/golden-age-of-gospel-christianity,3903" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proselytisation</a> was undermining Nepal’s Hindu identity, and the conviction that western embassies, their aid agencies and INGOs were behind conversions.Gopal Lamsal, who is now President of the NGO Federation of Nepal, was a young activist when the king tried to silence critics in 2005. He remembers how they had to hit the streets, burning copies of the NGO regulations and clashing with police.Lamsal says some of the provisions of the new National Integrity Policy seem to be directly lifted from the king’s and Deuba’s rule-book. He says the Policy is full of vague, impractical and outrageous clauses like the one asking NGOs to report anti-national activities. He says: “It is ridiculous that the government wants us to be its spies.”The real reason Deuba ordered a National Integrity Policy last year seems to be because his advisers had concluded that over 65% of NGOs in Nepal were close to UML, and could use their budgets to finance the party’s election campaign.Deuba’s NC party lost the elections anyway, and UML Chair K P Oli replaced him as the new PM in February.Ironically, it is now the Oli government's turn to revive a Policy paper he inherited from Gyanendra and Deuba. An activist explains that Oli is endorsing the controversial draft because it has so many broad provisions that it can be used to snare political enemies.He says: “Gyanendra or Deuba or Oli, they all hate an independent and critical civil society.”Another rights activist interviewed for this article told us the policy was initially mooted in 2011 when Janajati lawmakers, supported by the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19592#.Wv1bIrh-jjE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">British aid agency DfID</a> through the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN), formed a caucus to push for greater representation in the new Constitution.Indeed, even five years ago, various line ministries delayed a UNDP medium-term plan document and demanded that words like ‘structural discrimination’, ‘gender’, and ‘inclusion’ be removed.“The Kathmandu elite began to create a false narrative that foreigners are funding Janajati-Madhesi NGOs to perpetuate political instability and promote proselytisation in Nepal,” the activist said.However, Ex-secretary Sharada Prasad Trital, who led the team drafting the Policy, defended the document: “Does the Chinese government allow an INGO to publish whatever report it writes about China? If not, how can INGOs expect Nepal to allow it?”Trital argues that the guidelines will actually protect Nepal’s international image. “If this policy had been in place, the EU Election Observation Mission could never have been able to publish its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hail-to-the-chiefs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one-sided report</a> about Nepal’s election laws in March,” he says. “Such biased reports harm Nepal’s reputation, without allowing the government to put forward its own perspective.”A board member of AIN argues otherwise: “Of course, I/NGOs need to be within the Constitutional framework, but it is also their role to monitor the government and be critical if necessary.”He adds: “Some NGOs are required to submit shadow reports to the UN pointing out the government’s failures or weaknesses. The government is obliged by several international treaties to allow these NGOs to draft independent reports.”To be sure, the National Integrity Policy has tried to assert the government’s authority after many decades in which donors and international agencies were allowed to do <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/broken-promises-reconstruction,3627" target="_blank" rel="noopener">what they liked without much scrutiny</a>. Many of the provisions in the document could actually help make aid agencies more transparent and accountable.For example, more than one person of a family can no longer be in the executive committee of an NGO, one cannot hold executive posts for more than two terms, and I/NGO budgets cannot cross a threshold for administrative cost. It also reduces the role of Social Welfare Council by empowering the Finance Ministry to approve budgets and programs of allI/NGOs.UML leader Rajan Bhattarai assured Nepali Times: “The guidelines are not intended to curb any freedoms. There will be no compromise on democratic values."However, the policy has alarming provisions like the setting up of a surveillance network to monitor foreigners working in Nepal, check their past records and scrutinise if they are involved in undermining the national interest.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6152&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Govt issues draft guidelines for public hygiene</a>, BacksideOne such mechanism will be at the Ministry of Home Affairs overseeing surveillance teams made up of the Army, Police, Armed Police Force and National Investigation Department. Those found guilty can be deported, or declared persona non-grata.What troubles many is that the draft is being issued at a time when a joint communist government is in power – parties historically not known to be supportive of democratic freedoms and human rights. see Editorial, page 2) Critics say such a policy, instead of strengthening Nepal’s standing in the world, would undermine its democratic and liberal credentials.Said one: “If the government fairly implements this policy, it could promote integrity. If not, its provisions are so sweeping they could be used against anyone. Even the most upright and law-abiding citizen can be punished.”It is an indication of the degree of fear the policy paper has already spread that most civil society members interviewed for this piece wanted to remain anonymous.Ex-AIN President Deepak Raj Sapkota is not so worried. He says: “We are almost certain the government will not pass the policy in its current form without addressing our concerns.”GUIDE LINESNew rules in the National Integrity Policy for: NGOs-NGOs funded by foreign donors will be categorised separately from those that do not receive funding from foreigners-NGOs must inform the Finance Ministry about how much they are receiving from foreign donors and for which projects and get approval.-NGOs must inform local governments about their projects.-NGOs cannot bid for government contracts-NGOs must have a ceiling for administrative expenses-Registration of an NGO will be scrapped if it fails to renew within three months after expiry-Only one person from a family can be in the executive board of an NGO-A person cannot hold executive positions in an NGO for more than two terms.-A public office holder cannot be associated with an NGO-NGOs must not lobby on behalf of an INGO involved in leveling unwarranted charges against Nepal, harming social harmony or spreading hatred.-NGOs must report to the government if they find foreign nationals or organisations working against Nepal, Nepali civilisation and social harmony among Nepalis.INGO-INGOs must submit applications to the Finance Ministry, detailing their annual programs and budgets and can only spend money if it is approved.-INGOs must adhere to statutes and the preconditions agreed upon before entering into Nepal.-All the taxable spending by INGOs must be brought into the tax net.-INGOs must submit audit reports (to the government)-INGOs must not lobby for, create pressure on or influence the government to formulate laws or policies.-INGOs must abstain from leveling unwarranted charges against Nepal, harming social harmony and publishing reports with  hate content or sending them to their countries.-INGOs must abide by the Statistics Act 2015 while collecting data in Nepal.-INGOs cannot directly carry out projects.-INGOs cannot directly send reports about Nepal to their countries without first obtaining the government's approval.-INGOs must not cross ceilings for administrative works, hiring consultants, foreign junkets or hotel bills.-INGOs must limit the number of foreigners working for them in Nepal.-INGOs must not act against Nepal's civilisation, culture, social relations and goodwill-INGOs must not push for their religious, social or other agendas in Nepal.-Foreigners cannot hold the same position in INGOs for more than three years.-INGOs assisting foreign embassies and religious missions or for their narratives will be barred.-Foreigners will be allowed to work with Nepal-based INGOs only after thoroughly examining their past records.-INGOs must sign written agreements that they will not be directly or indirectly involved in proselytisation. If caught its agreement with the government will be nullified.

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The crow and the scarecrow

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

donor-agency

Nepal wants funds, but on her own terms

The crow and the scarecrow

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138