President of the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) Rajesh Kumar Agrawal declared last week that the economy was in a deep recession. But others cite record high remittances and foreign exchange reserves to say there is no cause for alarm. &nbsp;
Whom to believe? Both sides are right. The external sector of the economy is sound, but jobs are down and so is domestic demand and economic activities are. There is no domestic and foreign investment.
“Looking at our macroeconomic indicators, we most certainly aren’t heading towards a recession,” says Ishwori Prasad Bhandari of the National Statistics Office. “We are, however, experiencing a slow growth rate."
Unlike what many had predicted last year, Nepal has not gone down like Sri Lanka. Foreign reserves have climbed to $11.85 billion, enough to cover imports for more than 10 months. Nepalis sent home Rs116.2 billion in just the last month, a record and 26% up from the same month in 2022. And that is just through official channels.&nbsp;
After nearly 34 months, the current account deficit is on firmer ground. And the Asian Development Bank this week projected that the economic growth rate this year will bounce back to 4.3% from 1.9% % last year.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-of-the-state">State of the state</a>, Kunda Dixit
The inflation rate also dropped to 7.52% in July, down from 8.26% at the same time last year mainly because of lower fuel prices and lower inflation in India.&nbsp;
There are no figures for unemployment, but since about 1 million Nepalis left for overseas jobs and work-study in 2022-23, the picture is not rosy.
On the import side, demand declined first because of the pandemic and later government-imposed ban on luxury goods. Imports three years ago were down to Rs1.54 trillion only for it to bounce back a year later by nearly 25% once the restrictions were removed.
The decline in demand can also be credited to a slowdown in construction and infrastructure projects. Much of the reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake is complete, and so is new infrastructure for new local and provincial governments. This has led to a decline in demand for cement and other building materials.
The growth rate of bank loans has shrunk to 4.6% which many saw as a reluctance of industries to invest. But higher interest rates in the past have not necessarily resulted in economic growth, production, or jobs.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">State-sponsored economic crisis</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Due to the rapid growth of credit, the ratio of credit to the private sector has exceeded 91% of Nepal’s GDP, which is the highest in South Asia. Some experts credit this for the natural slump.
“After seeing an increase of 26% a year, it is only natural for the loan growth rate to decline,” says former banker Parshuram Kunwar Chhetri. “Credit growth can fluctuate when the economy does, it does not always increase at the same pace.”
Loans are starting to see an increase. Last month the figure stood at Rs44.15 billion which is double the amount in the same period last year.
“The economy went into decline, but did not collapse,” concludes Chhetri. “But the Central Bank could lower interest rates, relax the limit of Rs10.2 million imposed on the stock market and increase capital expenditure to boost the morale of the private sector.”
Former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal argues that just because some shops have closed down it does not mean that the economy is on the verge of collapse. “A lull in market and consumption have changed leading to some businesses experiencing difficulties. But other businesses have sprung up. This is a natural trend.”&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Till debt do us part</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Indeed, much business has shifted to digital platforms since the Covid pandemic. Just last month, mobile banking accounted for Rs243 billion, up from Rs73 billion two years ago.
“If it was a real recession, people would stop buying home appliances but here during the NADA auto show this year, there was a record high transaction worth Rs20 billion,” says Khanal.
So why are businesses trying to make it look like we are facing the Great Depression?
Experts say businesses are exaggerating the recession narrative to influence policy so they can get away with not paying high interest rates on loans taken earlier.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">Institutionalised inequality</a>, Editorial
“This problem arose in the first place due to the flow of cheap loans,” explains Shivraj Adhikari of Tribhuvan University. “And what we have now is the business community trying to create a policy trap by demanding concessions on their unpaid loans.”
But this is not to say that all is hunky dory. Much of the remittances are spent on unproductive sectors when they should have gone into job creation, renewable businesses, and manufacturing. Nepal also needs to increase its capital expenditure.
Says Nepal Rastra Bank’s Prakash Kumar Shrestha: “There are structural problems from the past and we will need major reforms to speed up the economy. Business as usual and only relying on the real estate and stock market for growth will not be enough.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/cost-of-living-in-a-big-city">Cost of living in a big city</a>, Ramesh Kumar

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Samsung Nepal has opened pre-orders for the Galaxy A57 5G and A37 5G. Both phones run Samsung’s One UI 8.5, featuring AI capabilities like voice transcription, Circle to Search, and photo editing. They feature a 50MP triple-camera system, a Super AMOLED display, and six years of OS and security updates.

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‘One early morning, we heard the ambassador’s wife cry out, “Ram, Ram, Ram!” A disaster has befallen Nepal!” She had heard on the radio that a fire had consumed Singha Durbar." This is not about the arson attack on 9 September 2025, but the one on 8 July, 1973. It started in the South Wing of the then single-largest building in all of Nepal. It took two days to bring the blaze under control, requiring the use of explosives to demolish one wing to protect the imposing western facade. As Bhekh Bahadur Thapa recalls in the English translation of his memoir A Life in Public Service: Nepal from Autocracy to Democracy, he was then on leave from the Nepal government serving with the IDRC in Ottawa.&nbsp; He had already served as Nepal’s Finance Secretary at age 25, went on to be Finance Minister and Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank. He was already younger than some of the GenZ ministers in Nepal’s present RSP government. Thapa, now 89, was at the launch of the book in February which was attended by former diplomats and bureaucrats. After speeches by panelists, there was a question from the audience about how Thapa had managed to be the diplomat he was, managing Nepal’s international relations on the world stage.&nbsp; Writer and journalist Akhilesh Upadhyay, who was moderating the panel, responded by going into the section of the book where we see Thapa as an ambassador to the US, playing tennis with White House officials, cultivating a network of contacts to project the identity and welfare of Nepal, and making it possible for a state visit by King Birendra to Ronald Reagan’s America. The book is full of anecdotes that suggest Thapa was a clever and strategic diplomat, always calm and unruffled, easily making friends in high places with his maturity and engaging sense of humour. Thapa’s memoir is heavy on details about Nepal’s administrative history during the years he was active in public service, serving as minister and ambassador under three kings: Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra, and alongside five prime ministers.&nbsp; Aside from an insider look on how certain treaties, development deals and research projects in Nepal came into fruition, Thapa goes into great detail about his personal and professional relationships with the kings, ministers, ambassadors, foreign leaders and politicians.&nbsp; As a reader, one is struck by the level of detail around the events that unfolded in Nepal over the years during Thapa’s tenure. Was Thapa recording a journal over the years of the events and the conversations that transpired, or were they committed to his phenomenal memory? Either way, the reader gets a glimpse of Nepal’s recent history from the early days of the Panchayat, through the People’s Movement and the democracy period, the Maoist insurgency, Royal Palace massacre of 2001, and Gyanendra’s coup of 2005.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026041204048_125dc8ae300a1e33124f394abe724d42727f83e067b0201d2008b58d60c459a4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026041204048_125dc8ae300a1e33124f394abe724d42727f83e067b0201d2008b58d60c459a4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1584" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="How to win friends and influence nations NT"> </figure>  Not enough is said about the political parties of the time whose presence led to the way Nepal’s multiparty democracy came to be shaped. The book keeps its focus on the administration and the key figures around it, mostly those in the Panchayat era. Towards the second half of the book, we do start to hear about political parties, but not in great depth. Another figure whose presence in the book is conspicuously less prominent is that of his wife, Rita Thapa — the person who seems to have rescued him every time financial quandary or family care became a challenge. Yet, we do not see her as a full person. Perhaps because of the personal tragedies in his life, the children are also barely mentioned.&nbsp; The book is therefore less personal and more technical. Throughout, we learn about Thapa’s thinking as he navigated the world of diplomacy to win him the trust of those who mattered. There are tips here for a new generation of Nepali officials and diplomats about how much commitment and focus is needed to be good at one’s job and serve the national interest. This book adds to tomes that have been written on Nepal’s fragile relationship with India. ‘India has always wished for Nepal to remain dependent on it,’ writes Thapa, who served as Nepal’s ambassador to India and later in the Eminent Persons Group &nbsp;on Indo-Nepal relations that has been allowed to languish. The book has several insights into the Indo-Nepal trysts with diplomacy and agency.&nbsp; China’s role is also recorded, viewed through conversations during a visit to Beijing, but all that was before Nepal’s neighbour to the north emerged as a world economic and military power. The book also has such sudden instances of quirkiness and humour. For instance, we see a young Thapa in America explaining to a government official why he would like to return to Nepal instead of settling down in the US. “Because, Nepal is beautiful,” he said. The text is immaculate and does not read much like a translation, credit for which clearly goes to the team that put the edition together: translator Prawin Adhikari, &nbsp;Anagha Neelakanthan and Bhekh Thapa’s daughter, Manjushree. As Nepal enters a new era of governance and diplomacy, A Life in Public Service: Nepal from Autocracy to Democracy should be essential reading for students of political science, economics and foreign affairs who can gain a fresh perspective on the country’s trajectory.&nbsp; There are dozens of forgotten state secrets recorded in the book, but the reader must also remember this is a story told from one person’s perspective and there may be others.&nbsp; So, what really made Thapa the diplomat he was? I met him in 2004 at the Kantipur TV studio when he was serving as king Gyanendra’s foreign minister. He was there for a studio interview, and I was just done with my English newscast.&nbsp; He surprised me at the door: “Pratibha! I’ve been reading your articles in The Kathmandu Post. You must keep writing.” I thanked him, glad to have been noticed for my work by a stranger. That was perhaps one of the things that set Thapa apart — he excelled at staying close to those in power, while also noticing those who were not.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260412040412_213e706136a038ec9f5e2b8c6d7f7c1e9ceed9479e22fe2884872ad7bd20955f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260412040412_213e706136a038ec9f5e2b8c6d7f7c1e9ceed9479e22fe2884872ad7bd20955f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Book details"> </figure>

How to win friends and influence nations

Prime Minister Balendra Shah on Wednesday broke tradition and met with 17 foreign envoys collectively, a move that was a notable departure from how his predecessors operated.&nbsp;
Shah had already set himself apart by talking less, listening more, and delegating to trusted friends. But by meeting all ambassadors at one go in the presence of the Foreign Ministry, he signalled a paradigm shift in how he wants Nepal to be seen: no longer just balancing India and China, but as a country confident about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/tripolar-contestation-over-nepal">strategic importance and place in the world</a>.
In just two weeks, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rsp-dos-and-don-ts">RSP has sprung into action </a>on multiple fronts to implement its ambitious 100-point, 100-days action plan. It has taken short-term measures to mitigate the impact of the Gulf war, as well as medium- and long- term measures to streamline the bureaucracy. A few high-profile figures have been made examples of to drive the message home.
Earlier this week, the government recalled six politically appointed ambassadors, the most notable being long-serving Shankar Sharma from New Delhi. The Kathmandu District Court issued arrest warrants against former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his former foreign minister wife Arzu Rana on charges of money laundering and corruption.
Each ministry has been trying to clean up the accumulated rot from the past three decades: regulatory overhaul of microfinance, education, health and service delivery.&nbsp;
These actions widely disseminated campaign-style on YouTube and TikTok have made most Nepalis hopeful that the party they installed in power means business.
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BACKLASH
But such attempts to overhaul a long-entrenched political culture were bound to face backlash. In their impatience and enthusiasm to get things done, some of Prime Minister Shah’s ministers have over-reached.
It was common knowledge that government-paid advertising in the mainstream press was kickback-driven, but the PMO’s directive that official notices be published or broadcast only on state-run media has been denounced — especially as the media industry struggles to stay afloat.
More serious are some recent appointments by ministers of relatives and figures closely associated with the RSP to key positions. This has rankled because this party built its political plank on ending nepotism and graft.&nbsp;
News that Home Minister Sudan Gurung allegedly had not paid rent on leased land, which illegally encroached on the lake in Pokhara did not help. &nbsp;
Prime Minister Shah himself has come under scrutiny for appointing a kitchen cabinet full of male buddies from his time as Kathmandu mayor. To douse criticism he brought in as adviser investigative journalist Deepa Dahal, who has exposed corruption in high places of the previous coalitions.&nbsp;
Shah’s appointment of another political adviser Asim Shah to the head Constitution Amendment Task Force, is also seen as problematic. He is a filmmaker and former lawmaker, but does not have a background in constitutional law.&nbsp;
Even more controversial is the Cabinet’s decision to appoint RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane’s legal counsel, Narayan Kandel, as Attorney General. Kandel used to be a UK permanent resident, and does not have as much experience practicing law in Nepal.&nbsp;
Kandel’s appointment drew flak and raised eyebrows, and with the pending legal cases against Lamichhane this appointment represents a flagrant conflict of interest.
Health Minister Nisha Mehta was also accused of favouritism after reappointing Junu Shrestha, wife of Labour Minister Dipak Kumar Shah, as member of the Health Insurance Board which had earlier suspended her. The Labour Minister’s rambling rant at the Board’s meeting on Tuesday has not helped the RSP’s image.&nbsp;
(UPDATE: On Thursday, Prime Minister Shah sacked the Labour Minister after the RSP found him in breach of the party's code of conduct and discipline. He served 14 days in the Cabinet, one of the shortest tenures for a minister in Nepal )
It is hard to know what <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/ball-in-balen-s-court">Balendra Shah is thinking</a>, and how Rabi Lamichhane is going to justify some of these moves. After all, making politics, governance, and bureaucracy a meritocracy has been the core tenet of the RSP, and it risks alienating its mainly youth base if these missteps persist.
But at least for now, most RSP supporters seem to be giving the party the benefit of doubt.

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Nepal’s new government springs into action